Season of diagnosis and prognosis in breast and prostate cancer

Seasonal effects on cancer incidence and prognosis

BACKGROUND

It is unknown if the reduction in the expected number of cancer cases diagnosed during Swedish holidays are due to diagnostic delays, how different cancers are affected, and if the season of diagnosis influences long-term cancer survival. We aimed to quantify seasonal trends in incidence and excess mortality for a wide range of malignancies, requiring more or less urgent clinical management.

MATERIAL AND METHODS

This nationwide cohort study included all Swedish residents aged 20-84 in 1990-2019. Incidence and relative survival in pancreatic, colorectal, lung, urothelial, breast, and prostate cancer, together with malignant melanoma, non-Hodgkin lymphoma, and acute leukemia diagnosed during holiday and post-holiday were compared to working (reference) season. Incidence rate ratios (IRR) were estimated using Poisson regression and excess (cancer) mortality rate ratios using flexible parametric models.

RESULTS

We identified 882,980 cancer cases. Incidence declined during holiday season for all malignancies and the IRR ranged from 0.58 (95% CI 0.57-0.59 in breast to 0.92 (95% CI 0.89-0.94) in pancreatic cancer. A post-holiday increase was noted for acute leukemia, pancreatic, and lung cancer. For all malignancies except lung cancer, non-Hodgkin lymphoma, and acute leukemia, the excess mortality at 2 years from diagnosis was higher among those diagnosed during the holiday season. A tendency toward elevated short-term (0.5 years) excess mortality was noted in the post-holiday group, but long-term effects only persisted in breast cancer.

CONCLUSION

This study demonstrates lower holiday detection rates and higher mortality rates in various cancer types diagnosed during holiday season. Healthcare systems should offer a uniform level of cancer care independent of calendar season.

The Contrasting Seasonality Patterns of Some Cancer-Types and Herpes Zoster Can Be Explained by a Binary Classification of Immunological Reactions

A binary classification of the pathogenic immune reactions as anti-inflammatory high-Treg reactions or pro-inflammatory low-Treg reactions explains both the relatively low incidence rate of several types of cancer, and the relatively high incidence rate of herpes zoster cases diagnosed in the summer compared to cases diagnosed in the winter (in regions with temperate climate). This binary model also elucidates the longer survival of cancer patients diagnosed during the summer compared to these diagnosed in the winter. The three key elements of this explanation are: (a) the effect of sunlight on Treg production; (b) the evolvement of cancer from a low-Treg condition at early stage, to a high-Treg condition at advanced stage, and (c) the evolvement of herpes zoster from a high-Treg condition at pre-exudative stage to a low-Treg condition at acute exudative stage. A significant proportion of indolent tumors at the time of diagnosis (>20%) is a prerequisite for a beneficial effect of sunlight on cancer incidence rate and prognosis. This prerequisite restricts the beneficial effect of diagnosis during summer to certain types of cancer. Clinical implication: the prognosis of early stage tumors may be improved by a course of corticosteroid (or other immunosuppressant) treatment.

Is Season of Diagnosis a Predictor of Cancer Survival? Results from the Zurich Cancer Registry

In Switzerland, there is a large seasonal variation in sunlight, and vitamin D deficiency is relatively common during winter. The season of diagnosis may be linked to cancer survival via vitamin D status. Using data from the Cancer Registry of Zurich, Zug, Schaffhausen, and Schwyz with more than 171,000 cancer cases registered since 1980, we examined the association of the season of diagnosis with survival for cancers including prostate (ICD10 code C61; International Categorization of Diseases, version 10), breast (C50), colorectal (C18-21), lung (C34), melanoma (C43), and all sites combined. Cox proportional hazards regression models were used to assess the differences in the all-cause mortality by the season of the diagnosis. Winter was used as the reference season. Hazard ratios (HR) and 95% confidence intervals (CI) were calculated for all the cancers combined (excluding nonmelanoma skin cancer) and for prostate (in men), breast (in women), colorectal, lung cancer, and melanomas, separately. A diagnosis in summer and/or autumn was associated with improved survival in all the sites combined for both sexes (men: HR 0.97 [95% CI 0.96-0.99]; women: HR 0.97 [95% CI 0.94-0.99]) and in colorectal (HR 0.91 [95% CI 0.84-0.99]), melanoma (HR 0.81 [95% CI 0.65-1.00]), and breast cancer (HR 0.91 [95% CI 0.94-0.99]) in women. Our study results suggest that a cancer diagnosis in summer and/or autumn is associated with a better prognosis. The improved seasonal survival coincides with the seasonal variation of sun-induced vitamin D, and vitamin D may play a protective and beneficial role in cancer survival.

No Impact of Seasonality of Diagnoses on Baseline Tumor Immune Infiltration, Response to Treatment, and Prognosis in BC Patients Treated with NAC

Simple Summary

High tumor-infiltrating lymphocyte (TIL) levels are associated with an increased response to neoadjuvant chemotherapy (NAC) in breast cancer (BC). The seasonal fluctuation of TILs in breast cancer is poorly documented. In this study, we compared pre- and post-treatment immune infiltration, the treatment response as assessed by means of pathological complete response (pCR) rates, and survival according to the seasonality of BC diagnoses in a clinical cohort of patients treated with NAC. We found no association between seasonality and baseline TIL levels or pCR rates. We found that post-NAC stromal lymphocyte infiltration was lower when cancer was diagnosed in the summer, especially in the subgroup of patients with TNBC. Our data do not support the hypothesis that the seasonality of diagnoses has a major impact on the natural history of BC treated with NAC.

Abstract

Breast cancer (BC) is the most common cancer in women worldwide. Neoadjuvant chemotherapy (NAC) makes it possible to monitor in vivo response to treatment. Several studies have investigated the impact of the seasons on the incidence and detection of BC, on tumor composition, and on the prognosis of BC. However, no evidence is available on their association with immune infiltration and the response to treatment. The objective of this study was to analyze pre- and post-NAC immune infiltration as assessed by TIL levels, the response to treatment as assessed by pathological complete response (pCR) rates, and oncological outcomes as assessed by relapse-free survival (RFS) or overall survival (OS) according to the seasonality of BC diagnoses in a clinical cohort of patients treated with neoadjuvant chemotherapy. Out of 1199 patients, the repartition of the season at BC diagnosis showed that 27.2% were diagnosed in fall, 25.4% in winter, 24% in spring, and 23.4% in summer. Baseline patient and tumor characteristics, including notable pre-NAC TIL levels, were not significantly different in terms of the season of BC diagnosis. Similarly, the pCR rates were not different. No association for oncological outcome was identified. Our data do not support the idea that the seasonality of diagnoses has a major impact on the natural history of BC treated with NAC.

Survival after radical cystectomy during holiday periods

OBJECTIVE

For patients undergoing radical cystectomy for bladder cancer, a procedure requiring complex urinary tract reconstruction prone to major postoperative complications, the timing and quality of the surgery have been associated with outcomes.

PATIENTS AND METHODS

This study investigated if radical cystectomy for bladder cancer performed during holiday periods had worse disease-specific (DSS) and overall survival (OS), higher 90-day mortality and risk of readmissions. All patients operated on with radical cystectomy for primary bladder cancer during 1997-2014 with holiday periods as exposure (with one narrow (7 weeks) and one wider (14 weeks) definition) in the Swedish population-based bladder cancer research-database (BladderBaSe) were studied. DSS and OS after radical cystectomy during holiday periods were analysed with Cox regression models adjusted for sex, age, comorbidity, marital status, T-stage and nodal metastases, neoadjuvant chemotherapy, hospital volume and year of cystectomy.

RESULTS

Surgery during the holiday periods (narrow and wide definitions) were not associated with DSS (Hazard ratio [HR] = 1.05, 95% confidence interval [95% CI] = 0.90-1.21 and HR = 1.04, 95% CI = 0.91-1.17), respectively. HRs for OS were similar, and no associations between radical cystectomy during any of the holiday period definitions and 90-day mortality and readmission were found.

CONCLUSION

Survival after radical cystectomy in Sweden is similar during holiday and non-holiday periods.

Simulation model of disease incidence driven by diagnostic activity

It is imperative to understand the effects of early detection and treatment of chronic diseases, such as prostate cancer, regarding incidence, overtreatment and mortality. Previous simulation models have emulated clinical trials, and relied on extensive assumptions on the natural history of the disease. In addition, model parameters were typically calibrated to a variety of data sources. We propose a model designed to emulate real‐life scenarios of chronic disease using a proxy for the diagnostic activity without explicitly modeling the natural history of the disease and properties of clinical tests. Our model was applied to Swedish nation‐wide population‐based prostate cancer data, and demonstrated good performance in terms of reconstructing observed incidence and mortality. The model was used to predict the number of prostate cancer diagnoses with a high or limited diagnostic activity between 2017 and 2060. In the long term, high diagnostic activity resulted in a substantial increase in the number of men diagnosed with lower risk disease, fewer men with metastatic disease, and decreased prostate cancer mortality. The model can be used for prediction of outcome, to guide decision‐making, and to evaluate diagnostic activity in real‐life settings with respect to overdiagnosis and prostate cancer mortality.

Low serum 25-hydroxyvitamin d concentrations are associated with increased risk for melanoma and unfavourable prognosis

Background

Low vitamin D status (serum 25(OH)D concentration) is associated with increased incidence and unfavourable outcome of various types of cancer. However, there are limited data on influence of serum 25(OH)D on risk and prognosis of malignant melanoma.

Methods

Basal serum 25(OH)D concentrations were retrospectively analyzed in a cohort of melanoma patients (n = 324) and healthy controls (n = 141). We tested the hypothesis that serum 25(OH)D concentrations are predictive of melanoma risk, thickness of primary melanomas, and overall survival (OS).

Results

Median serum 25(OH)D concentrations were significantly lower (p = 0.004) in melanoma patients (median = 13.6 ng/ml) as compared to controls (median = 15.6 ng/ml). Primary tumors of patients with low serum 25(OH)D concentrations (<10 ng/ml) had significantly (p = 0.006) greater Breslow thickness (median: 1.9 mm) as compared to patients with higher levels (>20 ng/ml; median: 1.00 mm). Patients with 25(OH)D serum concentrations in the lowest quartile had inferior overall survival (median: 80 months) comparing with the highest quartile (median: 195 months; p = 0.049).

Conclusions

Our data support the concept that serum 25(OH)D concentrations are associated with risk and prognosis of melanoma. Whether normalizing serum 25(OH)D concentrations in these patients improves outcomes will require testing in future clinical trials.

Role of Vitamin D Metabolism and Activity on Carcinogenesis

The vitamin D endocrine system regulates a broad variety of independent biological processes, and its deficiency is associated with rickets, bone diseases, diabetes, cardiovascular diseases, and tuberculosis. Cellular and molecular studies have also shown that it is implicated in the suppression of cancer cell invasion, angiogenesis, and metastasis. Sunlight exposure and consequent increased circulating levels of vitamin D are associated with reduced occurrence and a reduced mortality in different histological types of cancer, including those resident in the skin, prostate, breast, colon, ovary, kidney, and bladder. The vitamin D receptor (VDR) as a steroid hormone superfamily of nuclear receptors is highly expressed in epithelial cells at risk for carcinogenesis, providing a direct molecular link by which vitamin D status impacts on carcinogenesis. Because VDR expression is retained in many human tumors, vitamin D status may be an important modulator of cancer progression in persons living with cancer. The aim of this review is to highlight the relationship between vitamin D, VDR, and cancer, summarizing several mechanisms proposed to explain the potential protective effect of vitamin D against the development and progression of cancer.

The association of ultraviolet radiation-B (305 nm), season of diagnosis, and latitude on the survival outcome of prostate cancer in the high UV environment of Australia

BACKGROUND

Positive associations between sun exposure and cancer survival have been observed in regions of high latitudes, where ambient solar ultraviolet (SUV) radiation is generally low.

PURPOSE

We examined the effects of ambient ultraviolet-B radiation (UVB) at time of diagnosis, season of diagnosis and latitude of residence on survival outcome from prostate cancer.

METHOD

Regression models for relative survival were used to estimate relative excess risks (RER) of death after diagnosis of prostate cancer from cancer registries in Eastern Australia (Queensland, New South Wales, Victoria and Tasmania).

RESULTS

Relative excess risks was increased with diagnosis in summer (RER = 1.20; 95 % CI 1.14-1.26) relative to winter, high ambient UVB at the time of diagnosis (>60 mW/m(2); RER = 1.10; 95 % CI 1.05-1.15) relative to low SUV (<30 mW/m(2)), and with residence in high latitudes (35°S-43°S; RER = 1.20; 95 % CI 1.14-1.26) relative to low latitudes (9°S-29.9°S). RER was highest for summer diagnosis in all three latitude bands, after adjusting for age, follow-up period, and socioeconomic status.

CONCLUSION

The contradictory outcome from season and latitude suggests that their use as surrogates for UV warrants validation. Our data suggest that high ambient solar ultraviolet radiation at the time of diagnosis of prostate cancer increases the risk of dying from this cancer.

Relationship between cancer survival and ambient ultraviolet B irradiance in China

BACKGROUND

Ecological studies in predominantly European populations have reported higher cancer survival in areas of higher solar ultraviolet (UV) B irradiation, perhaps due to a cancer protective effect of vitamin D synthesized photochemically in the skin. Such studies have not been done in developing countries, perhaps because of lack of cancer registries that can do outcome follow-up. One minus the mortality-to-incidence ratio (1-MIR), however, can be used as a measure of survival, and MIR as a measure of fatality, in developing country cancer registries. We analyzed the association between ambient solar UVB and MIR in China.

METHODS

National cancer registration data in 32 counties of China in 2004-2005 were used to estimate MIR by age, sex, and area. The accuracy of 1-MIR as a measure of survival was assessed in the Cixian County cancer registry. Contemporary satellite measurements of cloud-adjusted ambient UVB intensity at 305 nm were taken from an NASA database and spatial Kriging methods used to estimate the average daily irradiance in each county. We estimated mortality hazard ratios (HRs) per 10 mW/m(2) of UVB for all cancers together, and the ten commonest cancer types by fitting a generalized linear model assuming mortality had a binomial distribution conditional on the sum of mortality and incidence, adjusted for sex, age, and location.

RESULTS

The 5-year survival proportions for the main cancer types were in good agreement with 1-MIR in Cixian County. MIR ratios for all cancers combined were inversely associated with ambient UVB in men (HR = 0.96, 95% CI 0.93-0.99) and women (HR = 0.91, 95% CI 0.88-0.94) and in urban (HR = 0.95, 95% CI 0.94-0.96) and rural areas (HR = 0.90, 95% CI 0.87-0.93). Similar inverse associations were present for cancers of esophagus, stomach, and bladder in both sexes together and breast cancer in women. They were present in urban residents for all major cancers except liver cancer, bladder cancer, and breast cancer in women. For rural residents, most HRs were <1.0 but, with the exception of breast cancer, their upper 95% confidence bounds were >1.0.

CONCLUSION

Ambient UVB was significantly inversely associated with MIR for all cancers together and four of ten cancer types. Solar UVB may increase survival from some cancers in China.

Seasonal variation in expression of markers in the vitamin D pathway in prostate tissue

PURPOSE

Recent studies suggest variation in genes along the vitamin D pathway, as well as vitamin D receptor (VDR) protein levels, may be associated with prostate cancer. As serum vitamin D levels vary by season, we sought to determine whether the expression of genes on the vitamin D pathway, assessed in prostate tumor tissue, do the same.

METHODS

Our study incorporates mRNA expression data from 362 men in the Swedish Watchful Waiting cohort, diagnosed between 1977 and 1999, and 106 men enrolled in the US Physicians' Health Study (PHS) diagnosed between 1983 and 2004. We also assayed for VDR protein expression among 832 men in the PHS and Health Professionals Follow-up Study cohorts. Season was characterized by date of initial tissue specimen collection categorically and by average monthly ultraviolet radiation levels. One-way analysis of variance was used to examine variation in the expression levels of six genes on the vitamin D pathway-VDR, GC, CYP27A1, CYP27B1, RXRα, CYP24A1-and VDR protein by season, adjusted for age at diagnosis and Gleason grade. Variation was also examined separately among lethal and nonlethal cases.

RESULTS

Tumor expression levels of the six genes did not vary significantly by season of tissue collection. No consistent patterns emerged from subgroup analyses by lethal versus nonlethal cases.

CONCLUSIONS

Unlike circulating levels of 25(OH) vitamin D, expression levels of genes on the vitamin D pathway and VDR protein did not vary overall by season of tissue collection. Epidemiological analyses of vitamin D gene expression may not be biased by seasonality.

Breast cancer survival and season of surgery: an ecological open cohort study

Background Vitamin D has been suggested to influence the incidence and prognosis of breast cancer, and studies have found better overall survival (OS) after diagnosis for breast cancer in summer-autumn, where the vitamin D level are expected to be highest. Objective To compare the prognostic outcome for early breast cancer patients operated at different seasons of the year. Design Open population-based cohort study. Setting Danish women operated 1978-2010. Cases 79 658 adjusted for age at surgery, period of surgery, tumour size, axillary lymph node status and hormone receptor status. Statistical analysis The association between OS and season of surgery was analysed by Cox proportional hazards regression models, at survival periods 0-1, 0-2, 0-5 and 0-10 years after surgery. A two-sided p value <0.05 was considered statistical significant. Results Only after adjustment for prognostic factors that may be influenced by vitamin D, 1-year survival was close to significantly associated season of surgery. 2, 5 and 10 years after surgery, the association between OS and season of surgery was not significant. Limitations Season is a surrogate measure of vitamin D. Conclusions The authors found no evidence of a seasonal variation in the survival after surgery for early breast cancer. Lack of seasonal variation in this study does not necessarily mean that vitamin D is of no importance for the outcome for breast cancer patients.

Prediagnostic plasma vitamin D metabolites and mortality among patients with prostate cancer

BACKGROUND

Laboratory evidence suggests that vitamin D might influence prostate cancer prognosis.

METHODOLOGY/PRINCIPAL FINDINGS

We examined the associations between prediagnostic plasma levels of 25(OH)vitamin D [25(OH)D] and 1,25(OH)(2) vitamin D [1,25(OH)(2)D] and mortality among 1822 participants of the Health Professionals Follow-up Study and Physicians' Health Study who were diagnosed with prostate cancer. Cox proportional hazards models were used to calculate hazard ratios (HRs) and 95% confidence intervals (CIs) of total mortality (n = 595) and lethal prostate cancer (death from prostate cancer or development of bone metastases; n = 202). In models adjusted for age at diagnosis, BMI, physical activity, and smoking, we observed a HR of 1.22 (95% CI: 0.97, 1.54) for total mortality, comparing men in the lowest to the highest quartile of 25(OH)D. There was no association between 1,25(OH)(2)D and total mortality. Men with the lowest 25(OH)D quartile were more likely to die of their cancer (HR: 1.59; 95% CI: 1.06, 2.39) compared to those in the highest quartile (P(trend) = 0.006). This association was largely explained by the association between low 25(OH)D levels and advanced cancer stage and higher Gleason score, suggesting that these variables may mediate the influence of 25(OH)D on prognosis. The association also tended to be stronger among patients with samples collected within five years of cancer diagnosis. 1,25(OH)(2)D levels were not associated with lethal prostate cancer.

CONCLUSIONS/SIGNIFICANCE

Although potential bias of less advanced disease due to more screening activity among men with high 25(OH)D levels cannot be ruled out, higher prediagnostic plasma 25(OH)D might be associated with improved prostate cancer prognosis.

Seasonal variations of cancer incidence and prognosis

The overall death rates are highest in the winter season in many countries at high latitudes. In some but not all countries, this is also true for more specific diseases such as cancer, cardiovascular diseases and influenza. For internal cancers we find no consistent, significant seasonal variation, neither of incidence nor of death rates. On the other hand, we find a significant seasonal variation of cancer prognosis with season of diagnosis in Norway. Best prognosis is found for summer and autumn diagnosis; i.e., for the seasons of the best status of vitamin D in the population. There were no corresponding seasonal variations, neither of the rates of diagnosis, nor of the rates of death which could explain the variations of prognosis. The most likely reason for this variation is that the vitamin D status in Norway is significantly better in summer and autumn than in winter and spring. Earlier, seasonal variations have been explained by circannual variations of certain hormones, but the data are not consistent.