MELD 3.0 Score for Predicting Survival in Patients with Cirrhosis After Transjugular Intrahepatic Portosystemic Shunt Creation

Postoperative, but Not Preoperative, MELD-3.0 Prognosticates 3-Month Procedural Success in Patients Undergoing Orthotopic Heart Transplantation

Background/Objectives: Multi-organ failure (MOF) often complicates advanced heart failure (HF), contributing to a poor prognosis. The Model of End-Stage Liver Disease 3.0 (MELD-3.0) scale incorporates liver and kidney function parameters. This study aims to evaluate the prognostic significance of the MELD-3.0 score in patients with advanced HF who have undergone heart transplantation (HTx). Methods: The MELD-3.0 score was computed using the average values of the international normalized ratio and bilirubin, creatinine, sodium, and albumin levels during a hospital stay following HTx. The average MELD-3.0 scores from the period of 1 month preceding HTx and 1 week after HTx were analyzed. The primary endpoint of the study was the 6-month total mortality, and the secondary endpoint was ICU hospitalization time after HTx. Results: The analysis included 106 patients undergoing HTx, with a median age of 53 years (44-63), 81% of whom were male. Within 6 months post-HTx, 17 patients (16%) died; those patients had a higher 1-week post-HTx MELD-3.0 score of 18.3 (14.5-22.7) in comparison to survivors, whose average score was 13.9 (9.5-16.4), p < 0.01. There was no difference in MELD 3.0 score in the pre-HTx period: 16.6 (11.4-17.8) vs. 12.3 (8.6-17.1), p = 0.36. The post-HTx MELD-3.0 score independently predicted death: RR 1.17 (95% CI 1.05-1.30), p < 0.01. A Receiver Operating Characteristic (ROC) determined the cut-off value of the MELD-3.0 score as 17.3 (AUC = 0.83; sensitivity-67%; specificity-86%). Survivors with scores above this value had a longer ICU hospitalization time: 7 (5.0-11.0) vs. 12 (8-20) days (p = 0.01). Conclusions: The post-HTx MELD-3.0 score serves as an independent predictor of an unfavorable prognosis in patients with advanced HF undergoing HTx. The evaluation of MELD-3.0 scores provides additional prognostic information in this population.

The Value of Neutrophil-to-Lymphocyte Ratio in Predicting Mortality After Transjugular Intrahepatic Portosystemic Shunt Placement

Background and Aims

The objective of this study was to investigate the effect of neutrophil-to-lymphocyte ratio (NLR) on the survival of cirrhotic patients with esophagogastric variceal bleeding (EGVB) treated with transjugular intrahepatic portosystemic shunt (TIPS).

Methods

A total of 293 patients treated with TIPS were included. The receiver operator characteristic curve (ROC) was used to calculate the optimal cut-off values of parameters such as NLR. The Kaplan-Meier curve and Cox proportional risk model were used to evaluate the effects of NLR and other variables on 2-year all-cause mortality.

Results

The area under the ROC for NLR was 0.634, with an optimal cutoff value of 4.9. Two-year mortality rates for patients with high (≥4.9) and low (<4.9) NLR were 22.1% and 9.3%, respectively (Log rank test: P = 0.002). After correcting for confounders, multivariate analysis demonstrated that NLR ≥ 4.9 (HR = 2.741, 95% CI 1.467-5.121, P = 0.002), age ≥ 63 (HR = 3.403, 95% CI 1.835-6.310, P < 0.001), and gender (male) (HR = 2.842, 95% CI 1.366-5.912, P = 0.001) were independent risk factors for the mortality outcome. Considering the stratification of early and selective TIPS treatment, high NLR still significantly increased the risk of mortality for patients (Log rank test: P = 0.007, HR = 2.317, 95% CI 1.232-4.356).

Conclusion

NLR can help to predict survival in EGVB patients after TIPS, and the type of TIPS should also be considered in practical applications.

MELD3.0 is superior to MELDNa and MELD for prediction of mortality in patients with cirrhosis: An external validation in a multi-ethnic population

Background and Aim

The model for end-stage liver disease (MELD) was updated to MELDNa and recently to MELD3.0 to predict survival of cirrhotic patients. We validated the prognostic performance of MELD3.0 and compared with MELDNa and MELD amongst cirrhotic inpatients.

Methods

Demographical, clinical, biochemical, and survival data of cirrhotic inpatients in Singapore General Hospital (SGH) from 01 January 2018 to 31 December 2018, were studied retrospectively. Patients were followed up from first admission in 2018 until death or until 01 April 2023. Area under the receiver operating characteristic curves (AUROC) were computed for the discriminative effects of MELD3.0, MELDNa, and MELD to predict 30-, 90-, and 365-day mortalities. AUROC was compared with DeLong's test. The cutoff MELD3.0 score for patients at high risk of 30-day mortality was determined using Youden's Index. Survival curves of patients with MELD3.0 score above and below the cutoff were estimated with Kaplan-Meier method and compared with log-rank analysis.

Results

Totally 862 patients were included (median age 71.0 years [interquartile range, IQR: 64.0-79.0], 65.4% males, 75.8% Chinese). Proportion of patients with Child-Turcotte-Pugh classes A/B/C were 55.5%/35.5%/9.0%. Median MELD3.0/MELDNa/MELD scores were 12.2 (IQR: 8.7-18.3)/11.0 (IQR: 8.0-17.5)/10.3 (IQR: 7.8-15.0). Median time of follow-up was 51.9 months (IQR: 8.5-59.6). The proportion of 30-/90-/365-day mortalities was 5.7%/13.2%/26.9%. AUROC of MELD3.0/MELDNa/MELD in predicting 30-, 90-, and 365-day mortalities, respectively, were 0.823/0.793/0.783, 0.754/0.724/0.707, 0.682/0.654/0.644 (P < 0.05). Optimal cutoff to predict 30-day mortality was MELD3.0 > 19 (sensitivity = 67.4%, specificity = 82.4%). Patients with MELD3.0 > 19, compared with patients with MELD3.0 ≤ 19, had shorter median time to death (98.0 days [IQR: 28.8-398.0] vs 390.0 days [IQR: 134.3-927.5]), and higher proportion of 30-day mortality (68.8% vs 43.0%) (P < 0.001).

Conclusion

MELD3.0 performs better than MELDNa and MELD in predicting mortality in cirrhotic inpatients. MELD3.0 > 19 predicts higher 30-day mortality.

MELD 3.0 in Advanced Chronic Liver Disease

The MELD (model for end-stage liver disease) 3.0 score was developed to replace the MELD-Na score that is currently used to prioritize liver allocation for cirrhotic patients awaiting liver transplantation in the United States. The MELD 3.0 calculator includes new inputs from patient sex and serum albumin levels and has new weights for serum sodium, bilirubin, international normalized ratio, and creatinine levels. It is expected that use of MELD 3.0 scores will reduce overall waitlist mortality modestly and improve access for female liver transplant candidates. The utility of MELD 3.0 and PELDcre (pediatric end-stage liver disease, creatinine) scores for risk stratification in cirrhotic patients undergoing major abdominal surgery, placement of a transjugular intrahepatic portosystemic shunt, and other interventions requires further study. This article reviews the background of the MELD score and the rationale to create MELD 3.0 as well as potential implications of using this newer risk stratification tool in clinical practice.