Forecast of future premature mortality as a result of trends in obesity and smoking: nationwide cohort simulation study

The Swedish military conscription register: opportunities for its use in medical research

In Sweden, conscription around age 18y was mandatory for young men until June 30, 2010. From July 1, 2017, it became mandatory again for both sexes but the proportion of summoned people for standardised testing has so far been low. This paper describes the history, structure and content of the Swedish Military Conscription Register (SMCR). We retrieved information about the SMCR from written sources and through e-mail interviews with key personnel at the Swedish Defence Conscription and Assessment Agency. We also analysed data from the SMCR between 1969 and 2018. Between 1969 and 2018 the SMCR contains digital data on approximately 2 million individuals (98.6% men). Most conscripts were born between 1951 and 1988 (n = 1,900,000; tested between 1969 and 2006). For the 1951-1987 birth cohorts, the register has a population coverage of approximately 90% for men. Conscripts underwent written tests focusing on verbal, spatial, logical and technical ability, medical, physical, and psychological tests. The medical assessment included hearing, vision, muscle and exercise capacity, height, weight, blood pressure and resting heart rate. The SMCR has been widely used to study, e.g., obesity, cardiovascular disease, mental health, crime, cardiovascular fitness, muscle strength, sick leave and disability pension. Severe disease could qualify for exemption from military service. Thus, the prevalence of such diseases is underestimated in the SMCR population. Between 1990 and 2018, about 25,000 women also volunteered for testing. The SMCR contains population-based data on physical and psychological health in about 90% of all men born between 1951 and 1987 (corresponding to testing between 1969 and 2006), and can be used to address a host of research questions.

Insights into the association between smoking and obesity: the 2014 Indonesian Family Life Survey

BACKGROUND Various findings on the relationship between smoking and obesity have been demonstrated. This study aimed to investigate the association between smoking behavior and obesity in the Indonesian adult population. METHODS A cross-sectional analysis was conducted using data from the 2014 Indonesian Family Life Survey. A body mass index of ≥25 kg/m² was employed to define obesity. Smoking behavior was assessed in terms of smoking status and its attributes. The potential confounders of gender, age, education, residential environment, economic status, physical activity, and education level were adjusted using logistic regression.  RESULTS Study subjects were 28,949 adults aged ≥20 years. Current smoking was a protective factor of obesity (adjusted odds ratio [aOR] = 0.53; 95% confidence interval [CI] = 0.48–0.58), whereas previous smoking habit showed no association with obesity (aOR = 0.96; 95% CI = 0.84–1.09). The risk of current smokers having obesity was lower than that of nonsmokers as smoking duration increased (aOR = 0.46–0.63). By contrast, the risk of obesity was relatively higher among former smokers than current smokers as the duration of quitting increased (aOR = 1.46–2.20). Heavy smokers had a higher risk of obesity than light smokers among former (aOR = 1.85; 95% CI = 1.27–  2.67) and current smokers (aOR = 1.38; 95% CI = 1.23–1.65). CONCLUSIONS Overall, smoking negatively affected obesity among the Indonesian adult population. By contrast, quitting smoking was associated with an increased risk of obesity. Thus, weight management along with smoking cessation intervention should be prescribed.

Mathematical Modeling in Tobacco Control Research: Initial Results From a Systematic Review

OBJECTIVES

The US Food and Drug Administration has expressed interest in using mathematical models to evaluate potential tobacco policies. The goal of this systematic review was to synthesize data from tobacco control studies that employ mathematical models.

METHODS

We searched five electronic databases on July 1, 2013 to identify published studies that used a mathematical model to project a tobacco-related outcome and developed a data extraction form based on the ISPOR-SMDM Modeling Good Research Practices. We developed an organizational framework to categorize these studies and identify models employed across multiple papers. We synthesized results qualitatively, providing a descriptive synthesis of included studies.

RESULTS

The 263 studies in this review were heterogeneous with regard to their methodologies and aims. We used the organizational framework to categorize each study according to its objective and map the objective to a model outcome. We identified two types of study objectives (trend and policy/intervention) and three types of model outcomes (change in tobacco use behavior, change in tobacco-related morbidity or mortality, and economic impact). Eighteen models were used across 118 studies.

CONCLUSIONS

This paper extends conventional systematic review methods to characterize a body of literature on mathematical modeling in tobacco control. The findings of this synthesis can inform the development of new models and the improvement of existing models, strengthening the ability of researchers to accurately project future tobacco-related trends and evaluate potential tobacco control policies and interventions. These findings can also help decision-makers to identify and become oriented with models relevant to their work.

Maternal lifestyle characteristics during pregnancy, and the risk of obesity in the offspring: a study of 5,125 children

BACKGROUND

To investigate the association between gestational weight gain, maternal age and lifestyle habits (e.g., physical activity, smoking, and alcohol consumption) during pregnancy, with Body Mass Index of the offspring at the age of 8.

METHODS

Α random sample of 5,125 children was extracted from a national database and matched with their mothers. With the use of a standardised questionnaire, telephone interviews were carried out for the collection of information like: maternal age at pregnancy, gestational weight gain (GWG), exercise levels, smoking and alcohol consumption. The Body Mass Index (BMI) status of the offspring at the age of 8 was calculated from data retrieved from the national database (e.g., height and weight).

RESULTS

The odds for being overweight/obese at the age of 8 for 1 kg GWG, for smoking, and for mild exercise during pregnancy compared to sedentary was 1.01 (95%CI: 1.00, 1.02), 1.23 (95%CI: 1.03, 1.47) and 0.77 (95%CI: 0.65, 0.91), respectively. Further analysis revealed that offspring of women who exceeded the Institute of Medicine (IOM) maternal weight gain recommendations were at an increased risk of obesity (OR: 1.45; 95%CI, 1.26, 1.67) compared with offspring of women with GWG within the recommended range. Maternal age and alcohol consumption were not associated with the outcome (p > 0.05).

CONCLUSION

GWG, physical activity and smoking status during pregnancy were significantly associated with obesity for the offspring at the age of 8. Health care professionals should strongly advise women to not smoke and to perform moderate exercise during pregnancy to prevent obesity in the offspring in later life.

Systems science and childhood obesity: a systematic review and new directions

As a public health problem, childhood obesity operates at multiple levels, ranging from individual health behaviors to school and community characteristics to public policies. Examining obesity, particularly childhood obesity, from any single perspective is likely to fail, and systems science methods offer a possible solution. We systematically reviewed studies that examined the causes and/or consequences of obesity from a systems science perspective. The 21 included studies addressed four general areas of systems science in obesity: (1) translating interventions to a large scale, (2) the effect of obesity on other health or economic outcomes, (3) the effect of geography on obesity, and (4) the effect of social networks on obesity. In general, little research addresses obesity from a true, integrated systems science perspective, and the available research infrequently focuses on children. This shortcoming limits the ability of that research to inform public policy. However, we believe that the largely incremental approaches used in current systems science lay a foundation for future work and present a model demonstrating the system of childhood obesity. Systems science perspective and related methods are particularly promising in understanding the link between childhood obesity and adult outcomes. Systems models emphasize the evolution of agents and their interactions; such evolution is particularly salient in the context of a developing child.

The Generation R Study: design and cohort update 2012

The Generation R Study is a population-based prospective cohort study from fetal life until adulthood. The study is designed to identify early environmental and genetic causes and causal pathways leading to normal and abnormal growth, development and health during fetal life, childhood and adulthood. The study focuses on six areas of research: (1) maternal health; (2) growth and physical development; (3) behavioural and cognitive development; (4) respiratory health and allergies; (5) diseases in childhood; and (6) health and healthcare for children and their parents. Main exposures of interest include environmental, endocrine, genetic and epigenetic, lifestyle related, nutritional and socio-demographic determinants. In total, n = 9,778 mothers with a delivery date from April 2002 until January 2006 were enrolled in the study. Response at baseline was 61 %, and general follow-up rates until the age of 6 years exceed 80 %. Data collection in mothers, fathers and children include questionnaires, detailed physical and ultrasound examinations, behavioural observations, and biological samples. A genome and epigenome wide association screen is available in the participating children. From the age of 5 years, regular detailed hands-on assessments are performed in a dedicated research center including advanced imaging facilities such as Magnetic Resonance Imaging. Eventually, results forthcoming from the Generation R Study contribute to the development of strategies for optimizing health and healthcare for pregnant women and children.

Geographic and racial variation in premature mortality in the U.S.: analyzing the disparities

Life expectancy at birth, estimated from United States period life tables, has been shown to vary systematically and widely by region and race. We use the same tables to estimate the probability of survival from birth to age 70 (S(70)), a measure of mortality more sensitive to disparities and more reliably calculated for small populations, to describe the variation and identify its sources in greater detail to assess the patterns of this variation. Examination of the unadjusted probability of S(70) for each US county with a sufficient population of whites and blacks reveals large geographic differences for each race-sex group. For example, white males born in the ten percent healthiest counties have a 77 percent probability of survival to age 70, but only a 61 percent chance if born in the ten percent least healthy counties. Similar geographical disparities face white women and blacks of each sex. Moreover, within each county, large differences in S(70) prevail between blacks and whites, on average 17 percentage points for men and 12 percentage points for women. In linear regressions for each race-sex group, nearly all of the geographic variation is accounted for by a common set of 22 socio-economic and environmental variables, selected for previously suspected impact on mortality; R(2) ranges from 0.86 for white males to 0.72 for black females. Analysis of black-white survival chances within each county reveals that the same variables account for most of the race gap in S(70) as well. When actual white male values for each explanatory variable are substituted for black in the black male prediction equation to assess the role explanatory variables play in the black-white survival difference, residual black-white differences at the county level shrink markedly to a mean of -2.4% (+/-2.4); for women the mean difference is -3.7% (+/-2.3).

Obesity in older adults: epidemiology and implications for disability and disease

Obesity is a worldwide problem with increasing prevalence and incidence in both developed and developing countries. In older adults, excess weight is associated with a higher prevalence of cardiovascular disease, metabolic disease, several important cancers, and numerous other medical conditions. Obesity has also been associated with increased functional limitations, disability, and poorer quality of life. Additionally, obesity has been independently associated with all-cause mortality. The obesity epidemic has important social and economic implications, representing an important source of increased public health care costs. The aim of this review is to report the epidemiology of obesity worldwide, and the implications of obesity on disability and chronic diseases in older adults.

The Rotterdam Study: 2012 objectives and design update

The Rotterdam Study is a prospective cohort study ongoing since 1990 in the city of Rotterdam in The Netherlands. The study targets cardiovascular, endocrine, hepatic, neurological, ophthalmic, psychiatric, dermatological, oncological, and respiratory diseases. As of 2008, 14,926 subjects aged 45 years or over comprise the Rotterdam Study cohort. The findings of the Rotterdam Study have been presented in over a 1,000 research articles and reports (see www.erasmus-epidemiology.nl/rotterdamstudy ). This article gives the rationale of the study and its design. It also presents a summary of the major findings and an update of the objectives and methods.

Maternal smoking during pregnancy and subcutaneous fat mass in early childhood. The Generation R Study

Maternal smoking during pregnancy increases the risk of obesity in the offspring. Not much is known about the associations with other measures of body composition. We assessed the associations of maternal smoking during pregnancy with the development of subcutaneous fat mass measured as peripheral and central skinfold thickness measurements in early childhood, in a population-based prospective cohort study from early fetal life onward in the city of Rotterdam, The Netherlands. The study was performed in 907 mothers and their children at the ages of 1.5, 6 and 24 months. As compared to non-smoking mothers, mothers who continued smoking during pregnancy were more likely to have a younger age and a lower educational level. Their children had a lower birth weight, higher risk of small size for gestational age and were breastfed for a shorter duration (P-values <0.01). We did not observe differences in peripheral, central and total subcutaneous fat mass between the offspring of non-smoking mothers, mothers who smoked in first trimester only and mothers who continued smoking during pregnancy (P > 0.05). Also, the reported number of cigarettes smoked by mothers in both first and third trimester of pregnancy were not associated with peripheral, central and total subcutaneous fat mass in the offspring at the ages of 1.5, 6 and 24 months. Our findings suggest that fetal exposure to cigarette smoke during pregnancy does not influence subcutaneous fat mass in early childhood. Follow-up studies are needed in children at older ages and to identify associations of maternal smoking during pregnancy with other measures of body composition.