A screening procedure for identifying acid-sensitive lakes from catchment characteristics

Trend estimation for complex survey designs of water chemistry indicators from Sierra Nevada Lakes

Surveys for long-term monitoring programs managing natural resources often incorporate sampling design complexity. However, design weights are often ignored in trend models of data from complex sampling designs. Generalized random tessellation stratified samples of a simulated population of lakes are selected with various levels of survey design complexity, and three trend approaches are compared. We compare an unweighted trend model, linear regression models of the trend in design-based estimates of annual status, and a probability-weighted iterative generalized least squares (PWIGLS) approach with a linearization variance. The bias and confidence interval coverage of the trend estimate and the size and power of the trend test are used to evaluate weighted and unweighted approaches. We find that the unweighted approach often outperforms the other trend approaches by providing high power for trend detection and nominal confidence interval coverage of the true trend regression parameter. We also find that variance composition and revisit design structure affect the performance of the PWIGLS estimator. When a subpopulation exhibiting an extreme trend is sampled disproportionately to its occurrence in the population, the unweighted approach may produce biased estimates of trend with poor confidence interval coverage. We recommend considering variance composition and potential subpopulation trends when selecting sampling designs and trend analysis approaches.

Effects of stock use and backpackers on water quality in wilderness in Sequoia and Kings Canyon National Parks, USA

During 2010-2011, a study was conducted in Sequoia and Kings Canyon National Parks (SEKI) to evaluate the influence of pack animals (stock) and backpackers on water quality in wilderness lakes and streams. The study had three main components: (1) a synoptic survey of water quality in wilderness areas of the parks, (2) paired water quality sampling above and below several areas with differing types and amounts of visitor use, and (3) intensive monitoring at six sites to document temporal variations in water quality. Data from the synoptic water quality survey indicated that wilderness lakes and streams are dilute and have low nutrient and Escherichia coli concentrations. The synoptic survey sites were categorized as minimal use, backpacker-use, or mixed use (stock and backpackers), depending on the most prevalent type of use upstream from the sampling locations. Sites with mixed use tended to have higher concentrations of most constituents (including E. coli) than those categorized as minimal-use (P ≤ 0.05); concentrations at backpacker-use sites were intermediate. Data from paired-site sampling indicated that E. coli, total coliform, and particulate phosphorus concentrations were greater in streams downstream from mixed-use areas than upstream from those areas (P ≤ 0.05). Paired-site data also indicated few statistically significant differences in nutrient, E. coli, or total coliform concentrations in streams upstream and downstream from backpacker-use areas. The intensive-monitoring data indicated that nutrient and E. coli concentrations normally were low, except during storms, when notable increases in concentrations of E. coli, nutrients, dissolved organic carbon, and turbidity occurred. In summary, results from this study indicate that water quality in SEKI wilderness generally is good, except during storms; and visitor use appears to have a small, but statistically significant influence on stream water quality.

Attribution of sources to metal accumulation in an alpine tarn, the Snowy Mountains, Australia

This study analyses 1800 years of heavy metal accumulation in a remote alpine lake experiencing long-range atmospheric contamination and additional inputs of Ag from cloud seeding. In comparison to previous work undertaken on peats, lake sediments show limited post-industrial metal enrichment with enrichment factors of Ag: 1.3, Pb: 1.3, Zn: 1.1, Cu: 1.2 compared to Ag: 2.2, Pb: 3.3, Zn: 2.1, Cu: 4.1 for peat. We show this to be the result of substantial fluvial lithogenic flux of metals (92-97% of total metal flux) to the lake. Total annual metal flux to the lake ranges from: Ag: 4-12 ng/cm(2)/yr to Zn: 3 383-11 313 ng/cm(2)/yr. As a result, any contribution of cloud seeding to additional enrichment of Ag in lake sediments is considered negligible. Results show that metal enrichment is not necessarily ubiquitous through a landscape. This has implications for predicting the impacts of atmospheric metal pollution to complex environmental systems.

Assessment of lake sensitivity to acidic deposition in national parks of the Rocky Mountains

The sensitivity of high-elevation lakes to acidic deposition was evaluated in five national parks of the Rocky Mountains based on statistical relations between lake acid-neutralizing capacity concentrations and basin characteristics. Acid-neutralizing capacity (ANC) of 151 lakes sampled during synoptic surveys and basin-characteristic information derived from geographic information system (GIS) data sets were used to calibrate the statistical models. The explanatory basin variables that were considered included topographic parameters, bedrock type, and vegetation type. A logistic regression model was developed, and modeling results were cross-validated through lake sampling during fall 2004 at 58 lakes. The model was applied to lake basins greater than 1 ha in area in Glacier National Park (n = 244 lakes), Grand Teton National Park (n = 106 lakes), Great Sand Dunes National Park and Preserve (n = 11 lakes), Rocky Mountain National Park (n = 114 lakes), and Yellowstone National Park (n = 294 lakes). Lakes that had a high probability of having an ANC concentration <100 microeq/L, and therefore sensitive to acidic deposition, are located in basins with elevations >3000 m, with <30% of the catchment having northeast aspect and with >80% of the catchment bedrock having low buffering capacity. The modeling results indicate that the most sensitive lakes are located in Rocky Mountain National Park and Grand Teton National Park. This technique for evaluating the lake sensitivity to acidic deposition is useful for designing long-term monitoring plans and is potentially transferable to other remote mountain areas of the United States and the world.