Variable-source flood pulsing in a semi-arid transboundary watershed: the Chobe River, Botswana and Namibia

Assessing the Impact of Wildlife on Vegetation Cover Change, Northeast Namibia, Based on MODIS Satellite Imagery (2002–2021)

Human–wildlife conflict in the Zambezi region of northeast Namibia is well documented, but the impact of wildlife (e.g., elephants) on vegetation cover change has not been adequately addressed. Here, we assessed human–wildlife interaction and impact on vegetation cover change. We analyzed the 250 m MODIS and ERA5 0.25° × 0.25° drone and GPS-collar datasets. We used Time Series Segmented Residual Trends (TSS-RESTREND), Mann–Kendall Test Statistics, Sen’s Slope, ensemble, Kernel Density Estimation (KDE), and Pearson correlation methods. Our results revealed (i) widespread vegetation browning along elephant migration routes and within National Parks, (ii) Pearson correlation (p-value = 5.5 × 10−8) showed that vegetation browning areas do not sustain high population densities of elephants. Currently, the Zambezi has about 12,008 elephants while these numbers were 1468, 7950, and 5242 in 1989, 1994, and 2005, respectively, (iii) settlements and artificial barriers have a negative impact on wildlife movement, driving vegetation browning, and (iv) vegetation greening was found mostly within communal areas where intensive farming and cattle grazing is a common practice. The findings of this study will serve as a reference for policy and decision makers. Future studies should consider integrating higher resolution multi-platform datasets for detailed micro analysis and mapping of vegetation cover change.

Use of Sentinel-1 GRD SAR Images to Delineate Flood Extent in Pakistan

Floods are some of the most serious and devastating natural hazards on earth, bringing huge threats to lives, properties, and living environments. Rapid delineation of the spatial extent of flooding is of great importance for the dynamic monitoring of flood evolution and corresponding emergency strategies. Some of the current flood mapping methods mainly process single date images characterized by simple flood situations and homogenous backgrounds. Although other methods show good performance for images with harsh conditions for floods, they must be trained—many times based on pre-classified samples—or undergo complicated parameter tuning processes, which require computation efforts. The widely used change detection methods utilize multi-temporal Synthetic Aperture Radar (SAR) images for the detection of flood area, but the results are largely influenced by the quality of defined reference images. Furthermore, these methods were mostly applied for some river basin floods, which are not effective for the large scale, semi-arid regions with complex flood conditions, and various land cover types. All of these extremely limited the use of these methods for the timely and accurate extraction of the spatial distribution pattern of floods in other typical and broad areas. Based on the above considerations, this paper presents a new method for rapidly determining the extent of flooding in large, semi-arid areas with challenging environmental conditions, based on multi-temporal Sentinel-1 Synthetic Aperture Radar (SAR) data. First, a preprocessing scheme is applied to perform geometric correction and to estimate the intensity of the imagery. Second, an automatic thresholding procedure is used to generate an initial land and water classification through the integration of the probability density distribution. A fuzzy logic-based approach, combining SAR backscattering information and other auxiliary data, is then used to refine the initial classified image. The fuzzy logic-based refinement removes areas that look similar to water in the SAR images, significantly enhancing the flood mapping accuracy. Finally, a post-processing step consisting of morphological operations and extraction improves the homogeneity of the extracted flood segments, discards isolated pixels, and gives the final flood map. This method can automatically detect the extent of floods at little computational cost. As Sentinel-1 data are publicly available and have a fast repeat cycle, the procedure can provide near real time results for rapid emergency response following flash floods. The accuracy of the proposed method is assessed at three test sites in Pakistan, which covered diverse landscapes and suffered large scale serious flooding after a long and severe drought in 2015. In comparison with the more recent studies from Ohki et al., 2020, and Shahabi et al., 2020, our results indicate the best spatial agreement with GF-2 panchromatic multi-spectral (PMS) water classification, with an encouraging overall accuracy ranging from 91.1% to 96.6%, and Kappa coefficients ranging from 0.893 to 0.954. Especially for the areas with fragmented floods, heterogeneous backgrounds, and the areas where samples are highly unbalanced in the SAR images, our method combines the global statistics and local relationships of backscattering properties, terrain, and other auxiliary information, enabling to effectively preserve the detailed structures and also remove the noise.

Tropical Wetland (TropWet) Mapping Tool: The Automatic Detection of Open and Vegetated Waterbodies in Google Earth Engine for Tropical Wetlands

Knowledge of the location and extent of surface water and inundated vegetation is vital for a range of applications including flood risk management, biodiversity monitoring, quantifying greenhouse gas emissions, and mapping water-borne disease risk. Here, we present a new tool, TropWet, which enables users of all abilities to map wetlands in herbaceous dominated regions based on simple unmixing of optical Landsat satellite imagery in the Google Earth Engine. The results demonstrate transferability throughout the African continent with a high degree of accuracy (mean 91% accuracy, st. dev 2.6%, n = 10,800). TropWet demonstrated considerable improvements over existing globally available surface water datasets for mapping the extent of important wetlands like the Okavango, Botswana. TropWet was able to provide frequency inundation maps as an indicator of malarial mosquito aquatic habitat extent and persistence in Barotseland, Zambia. TropWet was able to map flood extent comparable to operational flood risk mapping products in the Zambezi Region, Namibia. Finally, TropWet was able to quantify the effects of the El Niño/Southern Oscillation (ENSO) events on the extent of photosynthetic vegetation and wetland extent across Southern Africa. These examples demonstrate the potential for TropWet to provide policy makers with crucial information to help make national, regional, or continental scale decisions regarding wetland conservation, flood/disease hazard mapping, or mitigation against the impacts of ENSO.

Historical Trajectory in Vegetation Cover in Northeastern Namibia Based on AVHRR Satellite Imagery (1982–2015)

The negative impact of the reduction of vegetation cover is already being felt in the Zambezi Region in northeastern Namibia. The region has been undergoing various land cover changes in the past decades. To understand the historical trend of vegetation cover (increase or decrease), we analyzed 8-km resolution Global Inventory Monitoring and Modeling Studies (GIMMS) from the Advanced Very High Resolution Radiometer (AVHRR) and 0.25° × 0.25° (resampled to 8 km) resolution Global Precipitation Climatology Center (GPCC). We used the Time Series Segmented Residual Trends (TSS-RESTREND) method. We found that the general trajectory of vegetation cover was negative. Pixel-wise analysis and visual interpretation of historical images both revealed clear signs of vegetation cover change. We observed a single breakpoint in the vegetation trajectory which correlated to the 1991–1992 drought in southern Central Africa. Potential drivers of land cover change are the (il)legal expansion of subsistence farming, population growth, and wood extraction. These findings will serve as a reference for decision makers and policymakers. To better understand the human-induced land cover change at the micro scale and sub-regional level, we recommend using higher resolution remote sensing datasets and historical documents to assess the effect of demographic change, disease, civil unrest, and war.

Spatiotemporal patterns and effects of climate and land use on surface water extent dynamics in a dryland region with three decades of Landsat satellite data

Spatiotemporal distribution and systematic quantification of surface water and their drivers of change are critical. However, quantifying this distribution is challenging due to a lack of spatially explicit and temporally dynamic empirical data of both surface water and its drivers of change at large spatial scales. We focused on one of the largest dryland basins in the world, Australia's Murray-Darling Basin (MDB), recently identified as a global hotspot of water decline. We used a new remotely sensed time-series of surface water extent dynamics (SWD) data to quantify spatiotemporal patterns in surface water across the entire MDB and catchments and to assess natural and anthropogenic drivers of SWD, including climate and historical land use change. We show high intra- and inter-annual dynamics in surface water with a rapid loss during the Millennium Drought, the worst, decade-long drought in SE Australia. We show strong regional and catchment differences in SWD, with the northern basin showing high variability compared to the southern basin which shows a steady decline in surface water. Linear mixed effect models including climate and land-use change variables explained up to 70% variability in SWD with climate being more important in catchments of the northwestern MDB, whereas land-use was important primarily in the central MDB. Increase in fraction of dryland agriculture in a catchment and maximum temperature was negatively related to SWD, whereas precipitation and soil moisture were positively related to SWD. The fact that land-use change was an important explanatory variable of SWD in addition to climate is a significant result as land-use can be managed more effectively whereas climate-mitigation actions can be intractable, with global change scenarios predicting drier conditions for the area followed by a further reduction in surface water availability.

Spatiotemporal Variation and the Role of Wildlife in Seasonal Water Quality Declines in the Chobe River, Botswana

Sustainable management of dryland river systems is often complicated by extreme variability of precipitation in time and space, especially across large catchment areas. Understanding regional water quality changes in southern African dryland rivers and wetland systems is especially important because of their high subsistence value and provision of ecosystem services essential to both public and animal health. We quantified seasonal variation of Escherichia coli (E. coli) and Total Suspended Solids (TSS) in the Chobe River using spatiotemporal and geostatistical modeling of water quality time series data collected along a transect spanning a mosaic of protected, urban, and developing urban land use. We found significant relationships in the dry season between E. coli concentrations and protected land use (p = 0.0009), floodplain habitat (p = 0.016), and fecal counts from elephant (p = 0.017) and other wildlife (p = 0.001). Dry season fecal loading by both elephant (p = 0.029) and other wildlife (p = 0.006) was also an important predictor of early wet season E. coli concentrations. Locations of high E. coli concentrations likewise showed close spatial agreement with estimates of wildlife biomass derived from aerial survey data. In contrast to the dry season, wet season bacterial water quality patterns were associated only with TSS (p<0.0001), suggesting storm water and sediment runoff significantly influence E. coli loads. Our data suggest that wildlife populations, and elephants in particular, can significantly modify river water quality patterns. Loss of habitat and limitation of wildlife access to perennial rivers and floodplains in water-restricted regions may increase the impact of species on surface water resources. Our findings have important implications to land use planning in southern Africa's dryland river ecosystems.

Leptospira interrogans at the human-wildlife interface in northern Botswana: a newly identified public health threat

Leptospirosis is the most widespread zoonosis in the world. In northern Botswana, humans live in close proximity to a diversity of wildlife and peridomestic rodents and may be exposed to a variety of zoonotic pathogens. Little is known regarding the occurrence and epidemiology of L. interrogans in Africa despite the recognized global importance of this zoonotic disease and the threat it poses to public health. In Botswana, banded mongooses (Mungos mungo) live in close proximity to humans across protected and unprotected landscapes and may be a useful sentinel species for assessing the occurrence of zoonotic organisms, such as L. interrogans. We utilized PCR to screen banded mongoose kidneys for leptospiral DNA and identified 41.5% prevalence of renal carriage of L. interrogans (exact binomial 95% CI 27.7-56.7%, n = 41). Renal carriage was also detected in one Selous' mongoose (Paracynictis selousi). This is the first published confirmation of carriage of L. interrogans in either species. This is also the first report of L. interrogans occurrence in northern Botswana and the only report of this organism in a wildlife host in the country. Pathogenic Leptospira are usually transmitted indirectly to humans through soil or water contaminated with infected urine. Other avenues, such as direct contact between humans and wildlife, as well as consumption of mongooses and other wildlife as bushmeat, may pose additional exposure risk and must be considered in public health management of this newly identified zoonotic disease threat. There is a critical need to characterize host species involvement and pathogen transmission dynamics, including human-wildlife interactions that may increase human exposure potential and infection risk. We recommend that public health strategy be modified to include sensitization of medical practitioners to the presence of L. interrogans in the region, the potential for human infection, and implementation of clinical screening. This study illustrates the need for increased focus on neglected zoonotic diseases as they present an important threat to public health.