Drivers of land use/land cover changes in Munessa-Shashemene landscape of the south-central highlands of Ethiopia

Community-based assessment of the dynamics of urban landscape characteristics and ecosystem services in the rainforest and guinea savanna ecoregions of Nigeria

Understanding the dynamics of urban landscapes and their impacts on ecological well-being is crucial for developing sustainable urban management strategies in times of rapid urbanisation. This study assesses the nature and drivers of the changing urban landscape and ecosystem services in cities located in the rainforest (Akure and Owerri) and guinea savannah (Makurdi and Minna) of Nigeria using a combination of remote sensing and socioeconomic techniques. Landsat 8 datasets provided spatial patterns of the normalised difference vegetation index (NDVI) and normalised difference built-up index (NDBI). A household survey involving the administration of a semi-structured questionnaire to 1552 participants was conducted. Diminishing NDVI and increasing NDBI were observed due to the rising trend of urban expansion, corroborating the perception of over 54% of the respondents who noted a decline in landscape ecological health. Residential expansion, agricultural practices, transport and infrastructural development, and fuelwood production were recognised as the principal drivers of landscape changes. Climate variability/change reportedly makes a 28.5%-34.4% (Negelkerke R2) contribution to the changing status of natural landscapes in Akure and Makurdi as modelled by multinomial logistic regression, while population growth/in-migration and economic activities reportedly account for 19.9%-36.3% in Owerri and Minna. Consequently, ecosystem services were perceived to have declined in their potential to regulate air and water pollution, reduce soil erosion and flooding, and mitigate urban heat stress, with a corresponding reduction in access to social services. We recommend that urban residents be integrated into management policies geared towards effectively developing and enforcing urban planning regulations, promoting urban afforestation, and establishing sustainable waste management systems.

A spatio-temporal analysis of the magnitude and trend of land use/land cover changes in Gilgel Gibe Catchment, Southwest Ethiopia

Analyzing alterations in land use/land cover is crucial for water Scientists, planners, and decision-makers in watershed management. This examination enables the development of effective solutions to mitigate the adverse impacts resulting from such changes. The focus of this research was analyzing alterations in land use/land cover within the Gilgel Gibe Catchment in 1991 - 2021. LULC data of 1991-2021 were derived from multispectral Landsat images. Data were also gathered using field observations and key informant interview. Data of LULC classes (1991-2021) were generated utilizing supervised classification with maximum likelihood algorithm of ENVI 5.1 and ArcGIS 10.5. Change detection analysis and accuracy assessment were done where accuracy levels all the study periods were > 85 %, and the overall Kappa statistics of the periods were > 0.89. Built-up area and cultivated land of the catchment are increasing with increasing magnitude of change; whereas, while forest cover and grazing land of the catchment are shrinking with declining magnitudes of change, shrubland covers and water body are declining with increasing magnitude of change in the catchment. The net increase in degraded land is a reflection of the increasing degradation of natural resources in the catchment. Swift escalation of population and the subsequent raising demand for farmland and forest and shrub (e.g. fuel-wood and construction) products, decline yield, unemployment and lack of alternative income source, and open access and limited conservation of resources are the principal factors for the dramatic shrinkages of grazing, forest, water body and shrubland resources. Thus, concerned bodies should take rehabilitation measures to restore degraded lands, improve production and yield of farmland by increasing improved farm-inputs and irrigation, and create employment and alternative income sources for the youth, women and the poor so as to ensure sustainable rural livelihoods and to curb the impacts on forest, shrubland and other resources.

Remote sensing and GIS-based study of land use/cover dynamics, driving factors, and implications in southern Ethiopia, with special reference to the Legabora watershed

This paper investigates the trends, drivers, and consequences of LULC changes in Legabora watershed, Ethiopia, by utilizing remote sensing and geographic systems. Landsat Maltispectiral scanner (MSS), Thematic Mapper (TM), Enhanced Thematic Mapper (ETM+), and Operational Land Imager (OLI) images of years 1976, 1991, 2001, and 2022, respectively, were used to study the dynamics of LULC. Essential image pre-processing steps were carefully carried out to correct distortions caused by sensor limitations. Eight main LULC categories were identified based on supervised image categorization methods and the maximum likelihood classification algorithm.The findings of change detection and cross-tabulation matrix demonstrate that there has been a significant increase in the area of cropland 345.1 ha/year, settlement 5.9 ha/year, forest 38.2 ha/year, and degraded lands 2.56 ha/year, respectively, over the period between 1976 and 2022. In contrast, considerable decreases were observed in grasslands (-248 ha/year) and shrublands (-144 ha/year), whereas other LULC categories augmented. The results revealed that the overall accuracy rates stood at 88.3 %, 88.4 %, and 85.6 % for 1976, 1991, and 2022, respectively. The overall kappa coefficient demonstrated values of 0.86 %, 0.86 %, and 0.83 % for the same period. Surveyed respondents perceived population growth, settlement, agricultural expansion, and infrastructure development as the most noticeable drivers of these LULC changes. In contrast, deforestation, land degradation, lack of livestock fodder, and biodiversity loss were identified as the main consequences of LULC changes. The factors and implications addressed in this study may be helpful tool for the formulation and implementation of evidence-based land use policies and strategies within in the study area and elsewhere.

Land use and land cover changes and their impact on ecosystem service values in the north-eastern highlands of Ethiopia

The land use and land cover (LULC) changes driven by the growing demands of mankind have a considerable effect on ecosystem services and functions. The study was carried out in the north-eastern highlands of Ethiopia to (1) analyze the effect of LULC changes between 1984 and 2021 and (2) assess the spatiotemporal variations in ecosystem service values (ESVs) and elasticity in response to LULC changes. Using Landsat imageries from 1984 to 2021, the spatiotemporal changes in LULC were evaluated with supervised image classification using maximum likelihood algorithm in ArcGIS software. Six LULC types were subsequently categorized, with overall accuracy and Kappa coefficients above 87% and 0.87, respectively. The ESVs were then estimated based on the Benefit Value Transfer (BVT) approach employing modified conservative value coefficients. The findings revealed a significant increase in cultivated land (9759.1ha) and built-up area (10174.41ha) during the stipulated periods and a drop in other land use types. The forest loss gradually decreased from 4.1% in the second period (1991-2001) to 0.58% in the third (2001-2021), compared to the first of the 1.1% conversion rates. Similarly, the proportion of grassland and water bodies steadily reduced over the stipulated periods, by 1.15% and 2.3% per annum, respectively. The overall loss of ESVs in the study landscape was estimated to be 54.4 million US$ (67.3%), drastically decreasing from 80.3 million US$ in 1984 to 26.4 million US$ in 2021, driven by the declining area coverage of water bodies, grassland, and forestland. Regardless of the loss, the ecosystem functions of hydrological regulation (37.2, 35.0, 6.1, and 5.1 US$ ha-1yr-1), water supply (14.5, 13.6, 2.4, and 2 US$ ha-1yr-1), and food production (9.8, 10.0, 9.1, and 9.9 US$ ha-1yr-1) contributed the most to the total ESV of each year while disturbance regulation and cultural values were the least throughout the study periods. The coefficient of sensitivity (CS) analysis revealed that our estimates were relatively robust. The findings further showed that human-dominated land-uses at the expense of natural ecosystems are the primary drivers of LULC transitions and the ensuing loss of ecosystem services in the region. Thus, this calls for intensive work on more effective land use policies that encourage an integrated management approach, with a focus on safeguarding the sustainability of natural ecosystems.

Modeling LULC using Multi-Layer Perceptron Markov change (MLP-MC) and identifying local drivers of LULC in hilly district of Manipur, India

Identification and prediction of future land use and land cover (LULC) changes and their drivers are required for land resources management, formulation of better policy, practicing sustainable management strategies, and modeling future LULC. The present study has focused on the prediction of future LULC and assessment of local drivers of LULC change in the hill agroecosystem Senapati district of Manipur, Northeast India. The prediction of future LULC for 2029 was achieved based on LULC data of 1999, 2009, and 2019 satellite data using multi-layer perceptron Markov change (MLP-MC) of Land Change Modeler (LCM). The socio-economic survey and field observation were performed to identify local drivers of LULC changes in the study area. The total area covered by open and dense forests in 2029 was 69.06% of the total geographical area of the district, a slight increase from the 2019 assessment of 61.01 km². The drivers of LULC were categorized by assigning rank. The proximate drivers directly influence land use dynamics, such as increases in the settlement area, firewood collection, and construction. The underlying drivers-population growth and poverty-have also indirectly influenced LULC change in the district. It was observed that the livelihoods of local communities depend on forest products and agriculture. Therefore, the study finding will help create a future LULC information database and identification of local drivers of LULC. It will encourage the communities to participate in proper land resource management and create awareness for the sustainable use of the land.

Impacts of watershed management on land use/cover changes and landscape greenness in Yezat Watershed, North West, Ethiopia

In Ethiopia, watershed management interventions have been implemented since the 1980s to curve land degradation and improve the agricultural productivity of smallholder farmers. However, little effort has been made to investigate the impacts of watershed management on land use/cover changes and landscape greenness. Thus, this study was conducted to assess the long-term impacts of watershed management on land use/cover changes and landscape greenness in the Yezat watershed. Landsat images for 1990, 2000, 2010, and 2021 were employed and analyzed to produce maps of the respective years using GIS and remote sensing techniques. Data from satellite images, coupled with field observation and the socio-economic survey, revealed an effective approach for analyzing the extent, rate, and spatial patterns of land use/cover changes. Normalized difference vegetation index (NDVI) was also employed to detect vegetation greenness. The results of the study show that between 1990 and 2021, the built-up area, plantation, natural forest, shrubland, and grasslands were increased by + 254 ha, + 712.3 ha, 196.3 ha, + 1070.8, and + 425.3 ha respectively due to watershed management interventions. Conversely, cultivated land was decreased with a rate of - 2658.7 ha_, in the study area. However, the reverse is true between 1990 and 2000 due to large-scale land degradation. Besides, the result of the study also shows that a low landscape greenness value (- 0.11) was observed between 1990 and 2000, and a high landscape greenness value (+ 0.2) was observed between 1990 and 2021. The observed change in landscape greenness in the watershed was due to the change in shrubland (+ 1070.8 ha), grassland (+ 425.3 ha), plantation (+ 712.3 ha), and forestland (+ 196.3 ha) covers between 1990 and 2021 years. Such observed changes in land use land covers, landscape greenness, and cultivated land in the study watershed have important implications for the improvement of soil moisture, soil fertility, biodiversity, groundwater recharge, carbon sequestration, soil erosion land, crop yield, and ecosystem services.

Changes in the economic value of ecosystem services in rapidly growing urban areas: the case of Dhaka, Bangladesh

Assessing the effects of land use patterns on ecosystem services can provide a conceptual foundation and point of reference for spatial planning strategies. The benefits ecosystems bring to individuals' lives and general well-being are referred to as ecosystem services. Land use/land cover (LULC) could influence various ecosystems and have implications for natural habitats and the quality of life. LULC has changed dramatically in Bangladesh during the past few decades, notably in the Dhaka Metropolitan Area. However, no attempt has been made to examine the co-evolution of LULC variations and values of ecosystem services (ESV) in the Dhaka Metropolitan Area. The study's objective is to evaluate the impact of LULC changes and different socio-demographic factors on ESV. LULC data sets were extracted from Landsat OLI and TIRS images using maximum likelihood classification. Analyses were conducted on both ESV estimations and driving forces, and the influence of LULC dynamics on the ESV was assessed. Data from 1991, 2001, 2011, and 2021 were used to estimate ESVs. LULC in the major metropolitan area of Dhaka has seen considerable changes between 1991 and 2021, with the most important change being the declination of water bodies, vegetation, and agricultural land. Vegetation and agricultural land proportions dropped from 22.50% and 19.29%, respectively, to 6.45% and 10.60%. Overall, there was a US$25.11M drop in ESV during 1991-2021. The study emphasizes the value of integrated land use planning for tightly regulating and controlling the growth of built-up regions. This will be essential for maintaining ecological sustainability and contributing to ecosystem resilience.

Temporal and spatial differentiation characteristics of ecosystem service values based on the ecogeographical division of China: a case study in the Yellow River Basin, China

The identification of spatiotemporal changes in ecosystem service values (ESVs) and their drivers is the basis for ecosystem service administration and decision-making. This research focuses on the Yellow River Basin (YRB). With a multitemporal land use and land cover (LULC) dataset (1995-2018), the equivalence coefficient method with spatiotemporal dynamic correction and exploratory spatial data analysis methods were used to evaluate ESV changes due to LULC changes and their spatial characteristics. The contributions of the ESV driving factors and their mutual effects were also investigated via geographic detectors. The results revealed that (1) the land use structure of the YRB, mainly grassland and cultivated land, was stable from 1995 to 2018. However, the transition between land use types was dramatic, including urban expansion accompanied by losses of farmland, grassland, and unused land; increased forestland; and significant increases in water bodies and wetland areas. (2) During the study period, the overall ESV of the YRB increased, and hydrological regulation and climate regulation services dominated the change in the ESVs in the study area. The ESV exhibited obvious ecogeographical pattern differentiation and evident positive spatial autocorrelation. High values were concentrated in the southern part of the study area, including the southeastern part of the Qinghai-Tibet Plateau region and the central part of the East Asian monsoon region. Low values were concentrated in the northwestern arid zone, dominated by desert and grassland ecosystems. (3) Because of the fragility of the regional ecological background, the spatial differentiation of the ESVs in the YRB is dependent on natural factors; however, anthropogenic factors such as the degree of land use and the human activity intensity also lead to ESV differentiation. The synergistic effects of human activities, landscape pattern changes, and natural factors result in the spatial differentiation of the ESVs in the research region. Therefore, human activities affecting the ecological environment should be controlled, nature-based solutions should be advocated, patch diversity should be increased, landscape fragmentation should be reduced, LULC ecosystem service functions should be improved, and the relationship among economic, social, and ecological landscape resources should be coordinated.

Seasonal land use/land cover change and the drivers in Kafta Sheraro national park, Tigray, Ethiopia

Kafta Sheraro National Park (KSNP) has experienced rapid and consecutive destruction of dry woodland vegetation due to the influence of anthropogenic activities in the past three decades. However, to date, the change in woodland cover and its driving factors have not been addressed. This study aims to assess the spatial and temporal trends of land use/land cover change, seasonal vegetation cover change via the normalized difference vegetation index (NDVI), and human-induced drivers of change that occurred in the KSNP between 1988 and 2018 by using satellite imagery sensors (TM, ETM+, OLI), field observations, and local community interview data. The 2018 image results showed kappa coefficients of the dry season and wet season of 0.90 and 0.845, respectively. There was a continuous decline in woodland (29.38%) and riparian vegetation (47.11%) and an increasing trend in shrub bush land (35.28%), grassland (43.47%), bare land (27.52%), and cultivated land (118.36 km2) over the thirty-year period. Moreover, the results showed that bare land expanded from wet to drier months, while cultivated land and grazing land increased from dry to wet months. Based on the NDVI results, high to moderate vegetation was decreased by 21.47%, while sparse and non-vegetation expanded by 19.8% and 1.7%, respectively. Settlement and agricultural expansion, human-induced fire, firewood collection, gold mining, and charcoal production were the major proximate drivers that negatively affected park resources. Around KSNP, the local communities' livelihood depends on farming (crop and livestock production). This expansion of farming is the main driver of woodland depletion, which leads to increased resource competition and a challenge for the survival of wildlife. Therefore, urgent sustainable conservation of park biodiversity by encouraging community participation in conservation practices and preparing awareness creation programs should be mandatory.

Genetic and morphometric analyses of historical type specimens clarify the taxonomy of the Ethiopian Leptopelisgramineus species complex (Anura, Arthroleptidae)

Frogs of the genus Leptopelis have diversified in the Ethiopian Highlands to occupy forests and montane grasslands both east and west of the Great Rift Valley. Genetic studies revealed that the endemic species Leptopelisgramineus (Boulenger, 1898) comprises multiple unnamed taxa. A careful examination of historical type specimens is, however, needed to fully resolve the taxonomy of the group. Here we use mitochondrial DNA and morphological analyses on a large sample of recently-collected Ethiopian Leptopelis, as well as century-old type specimens to demonstrate that the recently resurrected L.montanus Tiutenko & Zinenko, 2021 (previously Pseudocassinaocellata Ahl, 1924) is a junior synonym of L.rugosus (Ahl, 1924) and corresponds to the taxon found west of the Great Rift Valley, not east as previously thought. Our results show that populations inhabiting the mountains and plateaus east of the Rift constitute a distinct and undescribed species. We provide a re-description of L.rugosus and describe two new species inhabiting the Highlands east of the Great Rift Valley. We provide an identification key, as well as a description of the calls of the members of the Leptopelisgramineus species complex.

Analysis of Land Use/Land Cover Change and Its Implication On Natural Resources of the Dedo Watershed, Southwest Ethiopia

This study analyzed the land use/land cover (LULC) change and their causes and implications on the natural resources of the Dedo Watershed, Ethiopia. The study used 1984, 2000, and 2017 satellite images to detect the trends of land use/land cover change. Moreover, key informant interviews and focus group discussions were used to identify the driving forces linked to the changes and their impact on the natural resources of the watershed. The study identified five LULC types as follows: cultivation, settlement, dense forest, light vegetation, and grassland. Over the last 33 years, cultivation and settlement land expanded by 15.7% and 0.34%, whereas dense forest, light vegetation, and grazing land declined by 9.2%, 4.97%, and 1.85%, respectively. The establishment of the resettlement program and population pressure and associated demands were the major driving forces behind the land use/cover change. Whereas increased soil erosion, biodiversity loss, and decline in water resources are identified as the major impacts of land use land cover changes in the study watershed for the last 33 years. The study concludes that if these trends of cultivation and settlement land expansion allowed continuing, there will be no dense forest vegetation will remain. So, the finding of this study is significant.

Monitoring land use and land cover change near a nuclear power plant construction site: Akkuyu case, Turkey

Land use and land cover (LULC) change analysis of the construction site and its surroundings of the Akkuyu Nuclear Power Plant project in southern Turkey was undertaken in this case study, which was supported by remotely sensed Landsat 8 image composites. The composite images compiled in 2017 and 2021 were prepared on the Google Earth Engine platform. The Random Forest algorithm was used as the classifier model. A high classification performance was obtained for both images (kappa > 0.88, overall accuracy > 90%). After the classification process, LULC maps for both years were generated, and statistical calculations for the LULC change were computed for both the entire study area (15 × 25 km) and a buffer zone with a radius of 1 km around the power plant. In the whole study area, artificial surfaces significantly increased (78.46%), whereas forests (- 8.31%) and barren lands experienced a considerable decrease (- 6.11%). In the 1 km buffer, artificial surfaces predominantly increased (113.94%), while forests and barren lands decreased dramatically (- 69.13% and - 74.28%, respectively). The agricultural areas in the study area were changed into other LULC classes: 9.1% to artificial surfaces, 27.6% to barren lands, and 21.7% to forest. The rise in the area of artificial surfaces was especially noticeable within the 1 km buffer zone: construction activities converted 36.1% of agricultural fields, 54.1% of forests, and 23.2% of barren lands into artificial surfaces. The filling activities on the seashore resulted in a loss of water bodies of up to 26.5%. The study provides an overview of how the LULC classes have evolved on the construction site and in the region. In the end, the study discusses how the current land use preferences in the region contradict the issues and concerns mentioned in the existing body of literature.

Spatiotemporal land use and cover changes across agroecologies and slope gradients using geospatial technologies in Zoa watershed, Southwest Ethiopia

Environmental phenomena are always changing elsewhere in various scales depending on both natural phenomenon and human interference. Land use/over change (LULC) is related to site specific factors such as inappropriate land use planning and the expansion of traditional agricultural practices in steep gradients have led to soil erosion and consequent ecological changes. Thus, it is crucial to determine the trend, pattern, and drivers of land use/land cover dynamics for sustainable natural resource management in Ethiopia. Therefore, we evaluated the spatio-temporal LULC dynamics in different agroeclogies and slope gradients, and their drivers between 1985 and 2021 in the Zoa watershed of Omo-Gibe basin, Southwest Ethiopia. Landsat imageries, focus group discussants, key informants, and field observations were used as source of data to analyze the spatio-temporal LULC trajectories and their drivers. With total accuracies ranging from 87.55% to 91.14%, supervised image classification using the Maximum Likelihood classifier technique was used to categorize five key LULC classes: bareland, farmland, forestland, grassland, and shrubland. The results revealed that shrubland (41.87%) had the largest share in 1985, but later declined to 23.98% in 2000, and 12.6% in 2021. Grassland has declined as well, from 17.15% in 1985 to 2.09% in 2021. In contrast, farmland increased at the fastest rate, from 29.09% in 1985 to 71.12% in 2021. The proportion of farmland exhibited an increasing trend in all agro-ecologies, while forestland has increased only in highland agro-ecologies. Between 1985 and 2021, an extensive area of shrubland and grassland were converted into farmland with a conversation rate of 1.05% and 0.58% per annum, respectively. The expansion of farmland was observed towards moderately and steep rolling slopes which might exacerbate soil degradation. This is due to rapid population increase and ongoing demand for agricultural land. The result of key informant interviews and focus group discussions also revealed that expansion of farmland and settlement are the major drivers of LULC dynamics due to rapid human population growth. Therefore, the regional government and various stakeholders should work on redesigning effective management strategies through appropriate land use planning to address the adverse effects of LULC dynamics.

Land Cover Change Detection and Subsistence Farming Dynamics in the Fringes of Mount Elgon National Park, Uganda from 1978–2020

Analyzing the dominant forms and extent of land cover changes in the Mount Elgon region is important for tracking conservation efforts and sustainable land management. Mount Elgon’s rugged terrain limits the monitoring of these changes over large areas. This study used multitemporal satellite imagery to analyze and quantify the land cover changes in the upper Manafwa watershed of Mount Elgon, for 42 years covering an area of 320 km2. The study employed remote sensing techniques, geographic information systems, and software to map land cover changes over four decades (1978, 1988, 2001, 2010, and 2020). The maximum likelihood classifier and post-classification comparison technique were used in land cover classification and change detection analysis. The results showed a positive percentage change (gain) in planted forest (3966%), built-up (890%), agriculture (186%), and tropical high forest low-stocked (119%) and a negative percentage change (loss) in shrubs (−81%), bushland (−68%), tropical high forest well-stocked (−50%), grassland (−44%), and bare and sparsely vegetated surfaces (−14%) in the period of 1978–2020. The observed changes were concentrated mainly at the peripheries of the Mount Elgon National Park. The increase in population and rising demand for agricultural land were major driving factors. However, regreening as a restoration effort has led to an increase in land area for planted forests, attributed to an improvement in conservation-related activities jointly implemented by the concerned stakeholders and native communities. These findings revealed the spatial and temporal land cover changes in the upper Manafwa watershed. The results could enhance restoration and conservation efforts when coupled with studies on associated drivers of these changes and the use of very-high-resolution remote sensing on areas where encroachment is visible in the park.

Practice and challenge of urban land governance: an empirical study in Tigrai, East Africa

The purpose of the study was to assess the practices and challenges of urban land governance in the Tigrai Region. This study employed a concurrent nested design. Data were collected from 177 officeholders and customers through questionnaires. Besides, interviews were conducted with purposefully selected officeholders. The results of the data analysis were presented using mean, standard deviation, Pearson correlation, and logistic regression to see the relationship between the independent variables and the dependent variable. The major findings showed that the elements of good urban governance (participation, responsiveness, accountability, transparency, equity, and efficiency and effectiveness) are not practiced appropriately. The major challenges in good urban land governance are lack of resources, commitment, human resources, clear rules and regulations, modern service delivery, materials, budget, and rent-seeking behavior. As a result, citizens are not satisfied with the urban land governance system and implementation process. Thus, the government should reconsider strengthening urban land institutions.

Modelling Land Use and Land Cover in the Transboundary Mono River Catchment of Togo and Benin Using Markov Chain and Stakeholder’s Perspectives

Integrating both modeling approach and stakeholders’ perspectives to derive past and future trends of land use land cover (LULC) is a key to creating more realistic results on LULC change trajectories and can lead to the implementation of appropriate management measures. This article assessed the past changes of LULC in the Mono River catchment using Landsat images from the years 1986, 2000, 2010, and 2020 by performing Machine Learning Classification Method Random Forest (RF) technique, and using Markov chain method and stakeholder’s perspective to simulate future LULC changes for the years 2030 and 2050. LULC was classified as savanna, cropland, forest, water bodies, and settlement. The results showed that croplands and forests areas declined from 2020 to 2050 with decreases of −7.8% and −1.9%, respectively, a modest increase in settlement (1.3%), and savanna was the dominant LULC in the study region with an increase of 8.5%. From stakeholders’ perspective, rapid population growth, deforestation, rainfall variability/flood, urbanization, and agricultural expansion were the most important drivers associated with the observed LULC changes in the area. Other factors, such as lack of political commitment, distance to river, and elevation were also mentioned. Additionally, most the land-use scenarios identified by stakeholders would intensify land degradation and reduce ecosystem services in the area. By considering all of these potential LULC changes, decision-makers need to develop and implement appropriate solutions (e.g., land use planning strategies, reforestation campaigns, forest protection measures) in order to limit the negative effects of future LULC changes.

Ecosystem Service Valuation along Landscape Transformation in Central Ethiopia

Land degradation and discontinuation of ecosystem services (ES) are a common phenomenon that causes socio-economic and environmental problems in Ethiopia. However, a dearth of information is known about how ES are changing from the past to the future with regard to land use land cover (LULC) changes. This study aimed at estimating the values of ES based on the past and future LULC changes in central Ethiopia. Maximum likelihood classifier and cellular automata-artificial neuron network (CA-ANN) models that integrate the module for land use change evaluation (MOLUSE) were used to classify and predict LULC. The CA-ANN model learning and validation was employed to predict LULC of 2031 and 2051. Following LULC change detection and prediction, the total ES values were estimated using the benefit transfer method. Results revealed that forests, wetlands, grazing lands, shrub-bush-woodlands, and water bodies were reduced by 9755 ha (37%), 4092 ha (38.4%), 21,263 ha (81%), 63,161 ha (25.7%), and 905 ha (1%), respectively, between 1986 and 2021. Similarly, forests, wetlands, grazing lands, shrub-bush lands, and water bodies will experience a decline of 1.5%, 0.5%, 2.6%, 19.6%, and 0.1%, respectively. Meanwhile, cultivated lands, bare-lands, and built-up areas will experience an increase between 1986 and 2051. The estimated total ES values were reduced by US$58.3 and 85.4 million in the period 1986–2021 and 1986–2051. Food production and biological control value increased while 15 other ES decreased throughout the study periods. Proper land use policy with strategic actions, including enforcement laws for natural ecosystems protection, afforestation, ecosystems restoration, and conservation practices, are recommended to be undertaken to enhance multiple ES provision.

Analysing land use/land cover changes and its dynamics using remote sensing and GIS in Gubalafito district, Northeastern Ethiopia

Abstract

Mapping and quantifying the status of Land use/Land cover (LULC) changes and drivers of change are important for identifying vulnerable areas for change and designing sustainable ecosystem services. This study analyzed the status of LULC changes and key drivers of change for the last 30 years through a combination of remote sensing and GIS with the surveying of the local community understanding of LULC patterns and drivers in the Gubalafto district, Northeastern Ethiopia. Five major LULC types (cultivated and settlement, forest cover, grazing land, bush land and bare land) from Landsat images of 1986, 2000, and 2016 were mapped. The results demonstrated that cultivated and settlement constituted the most extensive type of LULC in the study area and increased by 9% extent. It also revealed that a substantial expansion of bush land and bare land areas during the past 30 years. On the other hand, LULC classes that has high environmental importance such as grazing land and forest cover have reduced drastically through time with expanding cultivated and settlement during the same period. The grazing land in 1986 was about 11.1% of the total study area, and it had decreased to 5.7% in 2016. In contrast, cultivated and settlement increased from 45.6% in 1986 to 49.5% in 2016. Bush land increased from 14.8 to 21% in the same period, while forest cover declined from 8.9 to 2% in the same period. The root causes for LULC changes in this particular area include population growth, land tenure insecurity, and common property rights, persistent poverty, climate change, and lack of public awareness. Therefore, the causes for LULC changes have to be controlled, and sustainable resources use is essential; else, these scarce natural resource bases will soon be lost and will no longer be able to play their contribution in sustainable ecosystem services.

Article Highlights

Urban Expansion Simulation Based on Various Driving Factors Using a Logistic Regression Model: Delhi as a Case Study

During the last three decades, Delhi has witnessed extensive and rapid urban expansion in all directions, especially in the East South East zone. The total built-up area has risen dramatically, from 195.3 sq. km to 435.1 sq. km, during 1989–2020, which has led to habitat fragmentation, deforestation, and difficulties in running urban utility services effectively in the new extensions. This research aimed to simulate urban expansion in Delhi based on various driving factors using a logistic regression model. The recent urban expansion of Delhi was mapped using LANDSAT images of 1989, 2000, 2010, and 2020. The urban expansion was analyzed using concentric rings to show the urban expansion intensity in each direction. Nine driving factors were analyzed to detect the influence of each factor on the urban expansion process. The results revealed that the proximity to urban areas, proximity to main roads, and proximity to medical facilities were the most significant factors in Delhi during 1989–2020, where they had the highest regression coefficients: −0.884, −0.475, and −0.377, respectively. In addition, the predicted pattern of urban expansion was chaotic, scattered, and dense on the peripheries. This pattern of urban expansion might lead to further losses of natural resources. The relative operating characteristic method was utilized to assess the accuracy of the simulation, and the resulting value of 0.96 proved the validity of the simulation. The results of this research will aid local authorities in recognizing the patterns of future expansion, thus facilitating the implementation of effective policies to achieve sustainable urban development in Delhi.

Class and landscape level habitat fragmentation analysis in the Bale mountains national park, southeastern Ethiopia

The changes of natural habitat structure and function due to human interference is hastening worldwide, and it is compulsory to preserve biological resources in a protected system. This study aims to measure the landscape ecological structure and the extent of habitat fragmentation in the Bale mountains national park. The land use/land cover change was determined by interpreting the 1985, 1995, 2005 and 2017 Landsat images with ArcGIS 10.3, and the selected landscape structural metrics was analyzed using FRAGSTATS 4.2.1. All land cover classes showed a declining trend, except the farmland, and grassland depicted the highest area reduction. From 1985 to 2017 grassland, Erica, forestland, and afro-alpine were decreased by 9.36 %, 0.26 %, 0.06 %, and 0.01 %, respectively. Whereas, farmland was increased by 43.67 %. The study area was characterized as progressively fragmented since it was signified by the escalated value of patch number (40.22 %), area-weighted mean shape index (18.84 %), and edge density (22.27 %) and a declined value of mean patch size (28.68 %) and core area (10.60 %) over the study period. Considering this result, there was a high loss in area available for core dependent species, particularly for Mountain nyala in the grasslands and woodlands, Ethiopian wolf in afro-alpine regions, and Bale monkey in the bamboo forest. Both forestland and grassland need a conservation priority since these habitats were the most fragmented and habitat lost area.

Impact of land use/land cover dynamics on ecosystem service value-a case from Lake Malombe, Southern Malawi

Lake Malombe ecosystem provides a vast range of services that are vital for the sustenance of the riparian communities. Understanding land use and land cover (LULC) dynamics, as well as the associated impacts on the multiple ecosystem service value (ESV), is extremely important in decision-making processes and effective implementation of an ecosystem-based management approach. This study analyzed the LULC dynamics from 1989 to 2019. The primary objective of the study was to assess its impact on ecosystem services (ES). The ESV was determined using LULC analysis and established global ESV coefficient. The LULC analysis showed a reduction in forest cover by 84.73% during the study period. Built-up, cultivated land, bare land, shrubs, and grassland increased considerably. Rapid population growth, climate change, government policy conflicts, and poverty were identified as the most important drivers of LULC dynamics. Based on ESVs estimations, the ES changes instigated by LULC dynamics in the study area result in an average loss of US$45.58 million during the study period. Within the same period, the lake fishery also recorded a net loss of US$8.63 million. The highest net loss of US$79.832 million was recorded from 1999 to 2019 due to increased loss of forest, a decrease in water bodies and marsh areas. The sensitivity analysis (CS) indicated that our estimates were relatively robust. This study findings provide a piece of empirical evidence that LULC dynamics in the Lake Malombe catchment have led to a significant loss of ESVs, with serious implications for the livelihoods of the local population.

Applicability of Structure-from-Motion Photogrammetry on Forest Measurement in the Northern Ethiopian Highlands

Ethiopia is one of the countries with the most degraded forest resources. Information on tree structure is needed at some points in the process to assess the appropriateness of forest management. The objectives are to examine whether the Structure from Motion (SfM)-based photogrammetry can be used to derive the forest structural parameters, and how the tree structural parameters can vary by location. In this study, the possible applicability of low-cost SfM-based photogrammetry was evaluated for forest management and conservation purposes in the Adi Zaboy watershed of the Northern Ethiopian highlands. In the watershed, dwarf Acacia etbaica was sparsely distributed. Consequently, the full three-dimensional point clouds of the individual trees were generated, which provided a wide variety of tree structural parameters in a non-destructive manner. The R2 values for tree height, canopy width, and stump diameter were 0.936, 0.891, and 0.808, respectively, and the corresponding RMSE values were 0.128 m, 0.331 m, and 0.886 cm. In addition, differences in forest structure and composition were caused by differences in the environment. The SfM-based photogrammetry would provide fundamental information to meet the demand of sustainable forest management from a morphological point of view, especially in forests of Ethiopian highlands.

Socio-Economic Analysis of Wood Charcoal Production as a Significant Output of Forest Bioeconomy in Africa

Wood charcoal (WCH) is a sustainable biofuel for rural and urban users because of its higher energy density and emission of marginal smoke when compared with firewood. Besides helping the poor majority who cannot afford kerosene, electricity or liquid petroleum gas (LPG), WCH is a key source of income and livelihood. This work aimed at quantifying the volume of WCH production as well as appraising its socio-economics, including environmental impacts, especially the impact of long-term deforestation and forest degradation in Africa. Historically robust data from the databases of UN-FAO, FAOSTAT, International Energy Agency (IEA), United Nations Statistics Division, UN-DESA energy statistics yearbook, and the Forest Resources Assessment (FRA) were used. The data analysis involved descriptive statistics, multivariate analysis, and geospatial techniques. The result revealed that East Africa had the highest average wood charcoal production which was 32,058,244 tonnes representing 43.2% of the production whereas West Africa had 23,831,683 tonnes denoting 32.1%. Others were North Africa (8,650,207 tonnes), Middle Africa (8,520,329 tonnes), and South Africa (1,225,062 tonnes) representing 11.6%, 11.5% and 1.6% respectively. The correlation matrix showed that WCH production for the three decades had a significant positive correlation with all the measured parameters (such as areas of forest cover, export quantity, export value, GDP, human population, climate season, average income per citizen, and literacy rate). Wood charcoal is an essential livelihood support system. New policies including commercial wood charcoal production and licensing for revenue and ecological sustainability are required. Enterprise-based approaches for poverty reduction, smallholders’ tree-growing, wood charcoal-energy conserving technologies, improved electricity supply and agricultural productivity are encouraged. The novelty of this study can also be explained by the diverse parameters examined in relation to WCH production which no other studies in the region have done.

Analysis of the Current and Future Prediction of Land Use/Land Cover Change Using Remote Sensing and the CA-Markov Model in Majang Forest Biosphere Reserves of Gambella, Southwestern Ethiopia

This study aimed to evaluate land use/land cover changes (1987-2017), prediction (2032-2047), and identify the drivers of Majang Forest Biosphere Reserves. Landsat image (TM, ETM+, and OLI-TIRS) and socioeconomy data were used for the LU/LC analysis and its drivers of change. The supervised classification was also employed to classify LU/LC. The CA-Markov model was used to predict future LU/LC change using IDRISI software. Data were collected from 240 households from eight kebeles in two districts to identify LU/LC change drivers. Five LU/LC classes were identified: forestland, farmland, grassland, settlement, and waterbody. Farmland and settlement increased by 17.4% and 3.4%, respectively; while, forestland and grassland were reduced by 77.8% and 1.4%, respectively, from 1987 to 2017. The predicted results indicated that farmland and settlement increased by 26.3% and 6.4%, respectively, while forestland and grassland decreased by 66.5% and 0.8%, respectively, from 2032 to 2047. Eventually, agricultural expansion, population growth, shifting cultivation, fuel wood extraction, and fire risk were identified as the main drivers of LU/LC change. Generally, substantial LU/LC changes were observed and will continue in the future. Hence, land use plan should be proposed to sustain resource of Majang Forest Biosphere Reserves, and local communities' livelihood improvement strategies are required to halt land conversion.

Study on the gradient change of the landscape pattern in the Three Gorges Reservoir area by coupling the optimal grain size method and multidirectional gradient transect method

Human disturbance in the landscape lead to dramatic changes in the spatial structure of landscape patterns. This paper takes the Chongqing Three Gorges Reservoir area of China as case study to carry out gradient change analysis of the landscape pattern. Firstly, the coupled inflection point analysis, information loss method, and principal component analysis are used to determine the optimal grain size in a landscape gradient analysis. Secondly, the multidirectional gradient transect method is selected to analyze the law of landscape gradient change and the change of the landscape index. Finally, we analyzed various landscapes at the type level and obtained the distributions of the landscape types. The research highlights the gradient characteristics and landscape structure responses of typical transects of landscape subdivision types. The main results are as follows: (1) The optimal grain size of gradient analysis is 50 m. The patch density, patch shape complexity, and land use abundance of transects from the head to the tail of the reservoir increase. (2) At the landscape level, low mountain areas are more strongly blocked, and landscape connectivity reaches a minimum. At the type level, the landscape shape in the urban-rural interface zone is more complex. (3) Various landscape types are regularly ordered and form the gradient of "urban-agricultural-natural."

Spatiotemporal scale and integrative methods matter for quantifying the driving forces of land cover change

Land cover change (LCC) is a major part of environmental change. Exploring the spatiotemporal differences in LCC and the driving factors is the basis for comprehensive research on landscape planning, and it is of great significance for future effective and sustainable landscape management. In this respect, cross-scale research with integrated methods is worthy of more attention, although some studies have discussed the driving forces of LCCs at either regional or local scale. We combined a structural equation model and a mixed-effects model for quantifying the driving forces of LCCs across different scales in the Loess Plateau (China), which is a typical region that has experienced significant LCCs over recent decades. The impacts of biophysical and socioeconomic factors on different change trajectories (agricultural intensification, urbanization and ecological restoration) were found to be inconsistent at different temporal and spatial scales. We found that topography had a negative effect on agricultural intensification during 1990-2010 and on urbanization during 1990-2000, but it had a positive effect on ecological restoration during 2000-2015 at the regional scale. Moreover, although there was no significant impact from economic development on any type of LCCs at the regional scale, its important influence could be seen in some of the township categories. Therefore, the path and scale dependence of driving forces is an important consideration in landscape planning and management to accommodate local conditions and fine-tuned analysis as decision-making supports.

Monitoring of Urban Growth Patterns in Rapidly Growing Bahir Dar City of Northwest Ethiopia with 30 year Landsat Imagery Record

Monitoring urban growth patterns is an important measure to improve our understanding of land use/land cover (LULC) changes and a central part in the proper development of any city. In this study, we analyzed the changes over a period of 30 years (1985–2015) in Bahir Dar, one of the rapidly growing cities of northwest Ethiopia. Satellite images of Landsat TM (1985, 1995, and 2008), and OLI (2015) were used. The classification was carried out using the object-based image analysis technique and a change analysis was undertaken using post-classification comparison in GIS as a novel framework. An accuracy assessment was conducted for each reference year. Eight LULC types were successfully captured with overall accuracies ranging from 88.3% to 92.9% and a Kappa statistic of 0.85 to 0.92. The classification result revealed that cropland (66%), water (12.5%), and grassland (6%) were the dominant LULC types with a small share of areas covered by built-up areas (2.4%) in 1985. In 2015, cropland and water continued to be dominant followed by built-up areas. The change result shows that a rapid reduction in natural forest cover followed by grassland and wetland occurred between the first (1985–1995), second (1995–2008), and third (2008–2015) study periods. On the contrary, build-ups increased in all three periods by 9.3%, 121.3%, and 44.8%, respectively. Although the conversion between the LULC classes varied substantially, analysis of the 30-year change matrix revealed that about 31% was subject to intensive change between the classes. Specifically, the built-up area has increased by 250.5% during the study years. The framed approach used in this research is a good repeatable example of how to assess and monitor urban growth at the local level, by combining remote sensing and GIS technologies. Further study is suggested to investigate detailed drivers, consequences of changes, and future options.

Processes of Forest Cover Change since 1958 in the Coffee-Producing Areas of Southwest Ethiopia

We investigated the spatial relations of ecological and social processes to point at how state policies, population density, migration dynamics, topography, and socio-economic values of ‘forest coffee’ together shaped forest cover changes since 1958 in southwest Ethiopia. We used data from aerial photos, Landsat images, digital elevation models, participatory field mapping, interviews, and population censuses. We analyzed population, land cover, and topographic roughness (slope) data at the ‘sub-district’ level, based on a classification of the 30 lowest administrative units of one district into the coffee forest area (n = 17), and highland forest area (n = 13). For state forest sites (n = 6) of the district, we evaluated land cover and slope data. Forest cover declined by 25% between 1973 and 2010, but the changes varied spatially and temporally. Losses of forest cover were significantly higher in highland areas (74%) as compared to coffee areas (14%) and state forest sites (2%), and lower in areas with steeper slopes both in coffee and highland areas. Both in coffee and highland areas, forest cover also declined during 1958–1973. People moved to and converted forests in relatively low population density areas. Altitudinal migration from coffee areas to highland areas contributed to deforestation displacement due to forest maintenance for shade coffee production in coffee areas and forest conversions for annual crop production in highland areas. The most rapid loss of forest cover occurred during 1973–1985, followed by 2001–2010, which overlapped with the implementations of major land and forest policies that created conditions for more deforestation. Our findings highlight how crop ecology and migration have shaped spatial variations of forest cover change across different altitudinal zones whilst development, land, and forest policies and programs have driven the temporal variations of deforestation. Understanding the mechanisms of deforestation and forest maintenance simultaneously and their linkages is necessary for better biodiversity conservation and forest landscape management.

Drivers and Implications of Land Use/Land Cover Dynamics in Finchaa Catchment, Northwestern Ethiopia

Understanding the trajectories and extents of land use/land cover change (LULCC) is important to generate and provide helpful information to policymakers and development practitioners about the magnitude and trends of LULCC. This study presents the contributing factors of LULCC, the extent and implications of these changes for sustainable land use in the Finchaa catchment. Data from Landsat images 1987, 2002, and 2017 were used to develop the land use maps and quantify the changes. A supervised classification with the maximum likelihood classifier was used to classify the images. Key informant interviews and focused group discussions with transect walks were used for the socio-economic survey. Over the past three decades, agricultural land, commercial farm, built-up, and water bodies have increased while forestland, rangeland, grazing land, and swampy areas have decreased. Intensive agriculture without proper management practice has been a common problem of the catchment. Increased cultivation of steep slopes has increased the risk of erosion and sedimentation of nearby water bodies. Multiple factors, such as biophysical, socio-economic, institutional, technological, and demographic, contributed to the observed LULCC in the study area. A decline in agricultural yield, loss of biodiversity, extended aridity and drought, land and soil degradation, and decline of water resources are the major consequences of LULCC in the Finchaa catchment. The socio-economic developments and population growth have amplified the prolonged discrepancy between supply and demand for land and water in the catchment. More comprehensive and integrated watershed management policies will be indispensable to manage the risks.

Topographic variables to determine the diversity of woody species in the exclosure of Northern Ethiopia

Exclosures are established with the objective of rehabilitating degraded lands and restoring of woody vegetation. Various studies have been conducted to evaluate the success of exclosure on restoring woody species diversity. However, works focusing on the effect of topographic factors on woody species diversity are scarce. Understanding the factors that determine woody species diversity is important for management purposes. Therefore, this paper analyzes the effect of altitude, slope, and aspect as topographic variables on woody species diversity in Dawsura exclosure in northern Ethiopia. Data on species identity, abundance, slope, elevation and aspect were recorded from 58 sampling plots. Different diversity indices were used to analyze the data and one-way ANOVA and linear regression was conducted. There were a total of 34 woody species represented 15 families, of which 62% and 38% were trees and shrubs respectively. Altitude (r² = 0.63, p = 0.000 and r = 0.794, p < 0.01) and slope (r² = 0.57, p = 0.002 and r = 0.68, p < 0.01) correlated significantly and positively with Shannon diversity, whereas aspect (r² = 0.12, p = 0.378 and r = 0.27, p > 0.05) did not correlate significantly with Shannon diversity. Woody species diversity at moderate (1.44) and high (1.85) altitudes was significantly different from that of low (0.86) altitude areas (p = 0.0013). Furthermore, significantly higher woody species diversity was recorded at steep slope (1.88) and moderately steep slope (1.62) areas as compared to the gentle slope (0.95) areas. No significant variation was observed in woody species diversity among the aspect categories (p > 0.05). The study concludes that woody species diversity is largely regulated by slope and altitude than aspect in the exclosure. We suggest other environmental and anthropogenic variables should be taken into consideration in future studies on woody species diversity.

Long-term land cover change in Zambia: An assessment of driving factors

Land cover change (LCC) has significant effects on the global ecosystem diversity and function. This topic has received increasing attention due, in part, to its relationship with climate change, and the availability of remotely-sensed imagery that is used to monitor LCC. However, studies analysing the factors that drive LCC at large spatial scales and over long temporal scales are uncommon. This study aimed to identify the factors driving long-term (44 years, 1972-2016) national level LCC in Zambia. Two analyses were conducted, with the first considering factors that led to any LCC. The second scenario identified factors associated with changes from forests to other land covers, and the reversion to forests from non-forested covers. Candidate factors considered in both analyses include accessibility, proximity, topography, climate, conservation and socioeconomics. A classification tree (CT) approach was used to relate the explanatory candidate factors to LCC. The results showed that the CT models predicted LCC with accuracies ranging from 71 to 85%. The first analysis showed that the major factors determining LCC were percentage of area under agriculture, distance to water bodies, change in crop yield, mean temperature and elevation. Meanwhile, the second analysis showed that primary, secondary and plantation forest cover losses were mainly influenced by human population density, crop yield per hectare and mean crop yield, respectively. Protection status was the most important factor for forest reversion and recovery, while a variety of factors including distance to the railway, elevation and total precipitation also influenced forest reversion and recovery. The findings from this study provide insights into the factors that influence LCC and are important for developing effective policies to reduce the negative impacts of LCC and to promote forest reversion and recovery through effective management of protected areas. While this study focused on factors associated with historical LCC, the findings will also help to predict and understand future LCC scenarios.

Socio-economic importance of forest resources and their conservation measures in Ethiopia: the case of area closure in South Gonder of Ethiopia

Area closures that set aside to degraded lands for rehabilitation purposes are a popular forest conservation measure in various parts of the world. However, their use can be controversial because, if poorly designed, they can accelerate the degradation of neighboring unprotected lands and deny local residents' access to important ecosystem services. This paper reports the results of a study on the area closure approach used in south Gonder within the Lake Tana watershed of Ethiopia to stem the rapid decline of vegetation cover that has occurred there over the last four decades. We used a mixed-methods approach that combined data from a household survey, focus group discussions, key informant interviews, and official documents. We found that support for the area closures was high. We also found that area closures have had a mixed effect on access to key ecosystem services while a number of important concerns about the negative impacts to surrounding unprotected forests were also expressed. We conclude that area closures have garnered broad public support within our study region but this support appears to be mostly contingent on management successes within protected forests and does not necessarily capture the unintended negative consequences to surrounding unprotected forests.

Intersection of Physical and Anthropogenic Effects on Land-Use/Land-Cover Changes in Coastal China of Jiangsu Province

China is experiencing substantial land-use and land-cover change (LUCC), especially in coastal regions, and these changes have caused many ecological problems. This study selected a typical region of Jiangsu Province and completed a comprehensive and detailed spatial-temporal analysis regarding LUCC and the driving forces. The results show that the rate of land-use change has been accelerating, with land-use experiencing the most substantial changes from 2005 to 2010 for most land-use types and the period from 2010 to 2015 showing a reversed changing trend. Built-up land that occupies cropland was the main characteristic of land-use type change. Southern Jiangsu and the coastline region presented more obvious land-use changes. Social-economic development was the main factor driving increased built-up land expansion and cropland reduction. In addition, land-use policy can significantly affect land-use type changes. For land-cover changes, the normalized difference vegetation index (NDVI) for the land area without land-use type changes increased by 0.005 per year overall. Areas with increasing trends accounted for 82.43% of the total area. Both precipitation and temperature displayed more areas that were positively correlated with NDVI, especially for temperature. Temperature correlated more strongly with NDVI change than precipitation for most vegetation types. Our study can be used as a reference for land-use managers to ensure sustainable and ecological land-use and coastal management.

Local Perception of Drivers of Land-Use and Land-Cover Change Dynamics across Dedza District, Central Malawi Region

Research on Land Use and Land Cover (LULC) dynamics, and an understanding of the drivers responsible for these changes, are very crucial for modelling future LULC changes and the formulation of sustainable and robust land-management strategies and policy decisions. This study adopted a mixed method consisting of remote sensing and Geographic Information System (GIS)-based analysis, focus-group discussions, key informant interviews, and semi-structured interviews covering 586 households to assess LULC dynamics and associated LULC change drivers across the Dedza district, a central region of Malawi. GIS-based analysis of remotely sensed data revealed that barren land and built-up areas extensively increased at the expense of agricultural and forest land between 1991 and 2015. Analysis of the household-survey results revealed that the perceptions of respondents tended to validate the observed patterns during the remotely sensed data-analysis phase of the research, with 57.3% (n = 586) of the respondents reporting a decline in agricultural land use, and 87.4% (n = 586) observing a decline in forest areas in the district. Furthermore, firewood collection, charcoal production, population growth, and poverty were identified as the key drivers of these observed LULC changes in the study area. Undoubtedly, education has emerged as a significant factor influencing respondents’ perceptions of these drivers of LULC changes. However, unsustainable LULC changes observed in this study have negative implications on rural livelihoods and natural-resource management. Owing to the critical role that LULC dynamics play to rural livelihoods and the ecosystem, this study recommends further research to establish the consequences of these changes. The present study and future research will support decision makers and planners in the design of tenable and coherent land-management strategies.

Scenario modelling of land use/land cover changes in Munessa-Shashemene landscape of the Ethiopian highlands

Models under a set of scenarios are used to simulate and improve our understanding of land use/land cover (LULC) changes, which is central for sustainable management of a given natural resource. In this study, we simulated and examined the possible future LULC patterns and changes in Munessa-Shashemene landscape of the Ethiopian highlands covering four decades (2012-2050) using a spatially explicit GIS-based model. Both primary and secondary sources were utilized to identify relevant explanatory variables (drivers) and LULC datasets for the model. Three alternative scenarios, namely Business As Usual (BAU), Forest Conservation and Water Protection (FCWP) and Sustainable Intensification (SI) were used. The simulated LULC map of 2012 was compared with the actual for model validation and showed a good consistency. The results revealed that areas of croplands will increase widely under the BAU scenario and would expand to the remaining woodlands, natural forests and grasslands, reflecting vulnerability of these LULC types and potential loss of associated ecosystem service values (ESVs). FCWP scenario would bring competition among other LULC types, particularly more pressure to the grassland ecosystem. Hence, the two scenarios will result in severe LULC dynamics that lead to serious environmental crisis. The SI scenario, with holistic approach, demonstrated that expansion of croplands could vigorously be reduced, remaining forests better conserved and degraded land recovered, resulting in gains of the associated total ESVs. We conclude that a holistic landscape management, i.e. SI, is the best approach to ensure expected production while safeguarding the environment of the studied landscape and elsewhere with similar geographic settings. Further study is suggested to practically test our framework through a research for development approach in a test site so that it can be used as a model area for effective use and conservation of our natural resources.

Landscape-based upstream-downstream prevalence of land-use/cover change drivers in southeastern rift escarpment of Ethiopia

Characterized by high population density on a rugged topography, the Gedeo-Abaya landscape dominantly contains a multi-strata traditional agroforests showing the insight of Gedeo farmers on natural resource management practices. Currently, this area has been losing its resilience and is becoming unable to sustain its inhabitants. Based on both RS-derived and GIS-computed land-use/cover changes (LUCC) as well as socioeconomic validations, this article explored the LUCC and agroecological-based driver patterns in Gedeo-Abaya landscape from 1986 to 2015. A combination of geo-spatial technology and cross-sectional survey design were employed to detect the drivers behind these changes. The article discussed that LUCC and the prevalence of drivers are highly diverse and vary throughout agroecological zones. Except for the population, most downstream top drivers are perceived as insignificant in the upstream region and vice versa. In the downstream, land-use/cover (LUC) classes are more dynamic, diverse, and challenged by nearly all anticipated drivers than are upstream ones. Agroforestry LUC has been increasing (by 25% of its initial cover) and is becoming the predominant cover type, although socioeconomic analysis and related findings show its rapid LUC modification. A rapid reduction of woodland/shrubland (63%) occurred in the downstream, while wetland/marshy land increased threefold (158%), from 1986 to 2015 with annual change rates of - 3.7 and + 6%, respectively. Land degradation induced by changes in land use is a serious problem in Africa, especially in the densely populated sub-Saharan regions such as Ethiopia (FAO 2015). Throughout the landscape, LUCC is prominently affecting land-use system of the study landscape due to population pressure in the upstream region and drought/rainfall variability, agribusiness investment, and charcoaling in the downstream that necessitate urgent action.

Land use change and its driving forces toward mutual conversion in Zhangjiakou City, a farming-pastoral ecotone in Northern China

Land use/cover change (LUCC), a local environmental issue of global importance, and its driving forces have been crucial issues in geography and environmental research. Previous studies primarily focused on major driving factors in various land use types, with few explorations of differences between driving forces of mutual land use type conversions, especially in fragile eco-environments. In this study, Zhangjiakou City, in a farming-pastoral ecotone in Northern China, was taken as an example to analyze land use change between 1989 and 2015, and explore the driving forces of mutual land use type conversions using canonical correlation analysis. Satellite images and government statistics, including social-economic and natural data, were used as sources. Arable land, forestland, and grassland formed the main land use structure. From 1989 to 2015 forestland, orchard land, and construction land significantly increased, while arable land, grassland, unused land, and water areas decreased. Conversions from grassland to forestland; from arable land to orchard land, forestland and construction land; and from unused land to grassland and forestland were the primary land use changes. Among these, the conversion from grassland to forestland had the highest ranking. Average annual precipitation and per capita net income of rural residents positively affected the conversion of arable land to forestland and unused land to grassland. GDP, total population, and urbanization rate contributed most significantly to converting arable land to construction land; total retail sales of social consumer goods, average annual temperature, and GDP had important positive influences in converting arable land to orchard land.

Changes of ecosystem service values in response to land use/land cover dynamics in Munessa-Shashemene landscape of the Ethiopian highlands

Land use/land cover (LULC) dynamics alter ecosystem services values (ESVs), yet quantitative evaluations of changes in ESVs are seldom attempted. Using Munessa-Shashemene landscape of the Ethiopian highlands as an example, we showed estimate of changes in ESVs in response to LULC dynamics over the past four decades (1973-2012). Estimation and change analyses of ESVs were conducted, mainly, by employing GIS using LULC datasets of the year 1973, 1986, 2000 and 2012 with their corresponding global value coefficients developed earlier and our own modified conservative value coefficients for the studied landscape. The results between periods revealed a decrease of total ESVs from US$ 130.5 million in 1973, to US$ 118.5, 114.8 and 111.1 million in 1986, 2000 and 2012, respectively. While using global value coefficients, the total ESVs declined from US$ 164.6 million in 1973, to US$ 135.8, 127.2 and 118.7 million in 1986, 2000 and 2012, respectively. The results from the analyses of changes in the four decades revealed a total loss of ESVs ranging from US$ 19.3 million when using our own modified value coefficients to US$ 45.9 million when employing global value coefficients. Changes have also occurred in values of individual ecosystem service functions, such as erosion control, nutrient cycling, climate regulation and water treatment, which were among the highest contributors of the total ESVs. However, the value of food production service function consistently increased during the study periods although not drastically. All in all, it must be considered a minimum estimate of ESV changes due to uncertainties in the value coefficients used in this study. We conclude that the decline of ESVs reflected the effects of ecological degradation in the studied landscape and suggest further studies to explore future options and formulate intervention strategies.