Using ensemble forecasting to examine how climate change promotes worldwide invasion of the golden apple snail (Pomacea canaliculata)

Global Distribution of Culex tritaeniorhynchus and Impact Factors

Culex tritaeniorhynchus is the primary vector of Japanese encephalitis (JE) and has a wide global distribution. However, the current and future geographic distribution maps of Cx. tritaeniorhynchus in global are still incomplete. Our study aims to predict the potential distribution of Cx. tritaeniorhynchus in current and future conditions to provide a guideline for the formation and implementation of vector control strategies all over the world. We collected and screened the information on the occurrence of Cx. tritaeniorhynchus by searching the literature and online databases and used ten algorithms to investigate its global distribution and impact factors. Cx. tritaeniorhynchus had been detected in 41 countries from 5 continents. The final ensemble model (TSS = 0.864 and AUC = 0.982) indicated that human footprint was the most important factor for the occurrence of Cx. tritaeniorhynchus. The tropics and subtropics, including southeastern Asia, Central Africa, southeastern North America and eastern South America, showed high habitat suitability for Cx. tritaeniorhynchus. Cx. tritaeniorhynchus is predicted to have a wider distribution in all the continents, especially in Western Europe and South America in the future under two extreme emission scenarios (SSP5-8.5 and SSP1-2.6). Targeted strategies for the control and prevention of Cx. tritaeniorhynchus should be further strengthened.

Effect of starvation and pesticide exposure on neutral lipid composition of the digestive gland of males of the apple snails Pomacea canaliculata

Pollutants as well as starvation usually modify homeostasis of neutral lipids in aquatic organisms. However, studies on the simultaneous effects of both stressors are scarce. The aim of this study was to evaluate the effect of toxicant exposure under starvation conditions on neutral lipids of the freshwater snail Pomacea canaliculata, selected as the model organism. Starved adult male snails were exposed to sublethal concentration of the pesticide cypermethrin (100 µg/L) during 4 and 10 days. Fed snails were sacrificed at the onset of the experiment (T₀), along with starved snails exposed to the pesticide vehicle (ethanol) and another group without solvent served as controls. Total lipid content, neutral lipid classes, fatty acid composition, and pesticide accumulation were determined in the digestive gland of snails. The ethanol concentration used was not an additional stressful agent. As expected, starvation caused a decrease in neutral lipid content in the digestive gland of snails with respect to T₀ snails. Pesticide exposure caused, on the other hand, an increase in triacylglycerol content compared to ethanol exposure at day 10 of the bioassay. This increment correlated with the bioconcentration of cypermethrin, which was 47% higher by day 10 than by day 4. The fatty acid profile of triacylglycerols in the digestive gland was significantly altered under starvation and pesticide exposure. Stressed male snails showed the ability to preserve polyunsaturated fatty acids, as evidenced by their significant increase with respect to T₀ snails. These results suggest that the alteration of lipid homeostasis could be involved in an adaptive mechanism of aquatic organisms to lipophilic and obesogenic pollutants.

Sensitivity of histopathological and histochemical parameters in the digestive gland of the apple snail Pomacea canaliculata exposed to cypermethrin

The aim of this study was to evaluate the toxic effects of the pesticide cypermethrin (CYP) in the digestive gland of the apple snail, Pomacea canaliculata, analysing histological and histochemical alterations. Adult snails were exposed to sublethal CYP concentrations (10, 25, and 100 µg/L) under acute (1 day) and sub-chronic (14 days) conditions. Histological analyses of the morphology of the digestive gland were performed and a histopathological condition index (HI) was calculated. Also, both intracellular accumulation of lipofuscins (LF) and neutral lipids (NL) were evaluated. CYP exposure induced tissue damage to this organ, such as disorganisation of the connective tissue, fibrosis, haemocytic infiltration, atrophy, and necrosis under acute and sub-chronic conditions. These alterations, integrated into a single HI value, revealed notable CYP effects during both acute and sub-chronic exposures. Cell type replacement, measured as Vv_BAS, was only observed in the sub-chronic treatment. Under acute conditions, the pyrethroid affected NL accumulation at the highest concentration, while in sub-chronic conditions NL accumulation was only observed at the lowest concentrations. P. canaliculata also showed a dose-dependent response of LF under acute CYP exposure conditions. However, under sub-chronic conditions, this parameter was not sensitive to pesticide exposure. All these relevant structural lesions may affect the normal function of the digestive gland, even though the species presented additional mechanisms, as infiltration of hemocyte and basophilic cell hyperplasia, that help it to tolerate the exposure to pollutants. This study showed that some histological and histochemical parameters are sensitive in P. canaliculata at CYP concentrations to which the snail could be exposed in the environments it inhabits.

Direct and indirect effects of climate change on distribution and community composition of macrophytes in lentic systems

Macrophytes are an important part of freshwater ecosystems and they have direct and indirect roles in keeping the water clear and providing structure and habitats for other aquatic organisms. Currently, climate change is posing a major threat to macrophyte communities by altering the many drivers that determine macrophyte abundance and composition. We synthesise current literature to examine the direct effects of climate change (i.e. changes in CO₂, temperature, and precipitation patterns) on aquatic macrophytes in lakes as well as indirect effects via invasive species and nutrient dynamics. The combined effects of climate change are likely to lead to an increased abundance and distribution of emergent and floating species, and a decreased abundance and distribution of submerged macrophytes. In small shallow lakes, these processes are likely to be faster than in deep temperate lakes; with lower light levels, water level fluctuations and increases in temperature, the systems will become dominated by algae. In general, specialized macrophyte species in high‐latitude and high‐altitude areas will decrease in number while more competitive invasive species are likely to outcompete native species. Given that the majority of endemic species reside in tropical lakes, climate change, together with other anthropogenic pressures, might cause the extinction of a large number of endemic species. Lakes at higher altitudes in tropical areas could therefore potentially be a hotspot for future conservation efforts for protecting endemic macrophyte species. In response to a combination of climate‐change induced threats, the macrophyte community might collapse, which will change the status of lakes and may initiate a negative feedback loop that will affect entire lake ecosystems.

Influence of Climate Change on Metabolism and Biological Characteristics in Perennial Woody Fruit Crops in the Mediterranean Environment

The changes in the state of the climate have a high impact on perennial fruit crops thus threatening food availability. Indeed, climatic factors affect several plant aspects, such as phenological stages, physiological processes, disease-pest frequency, yield, and qualitative composition of the plant tissues and derived products. To mitigate the effects of climatic parameters variability, plants implement several strategies of defense, by changing phenological trends, altering physiology, increasing carbon sequestration, and metabolites synthesis. This review was divided into two sections. The first provides data on climate change in the last years and a general consideration on their impact, mitigation, and resilience in the production of food crops. The second section reviews the consequences of climate change on the industry of two woody fruit crops models (evergreen and deciduous trees). The research focused on, citrus, olive, and loquat as evergreen trees examples; while grape, apple, pear, cherry, apricot, almond, peach, kiwi, fig, and persimmon as deciduous species. Perennial fruit crops originated by a complex of decisions valuable in a long period and involving economic and technical problems that farmers may quickly change in the case of annual crops. However, the low flexibility of woody crops is balanced by resilience in the long-life cycle.

Predicting Current Potential Distribution and the Range Dynamics of Pomacea canaliculata in China under Global Climate Change

Simple Summary

Pomacea canaliculata is one of the 100 worst invasive alien species in the world, causing significant effects and harm to native species, ecological environment, human health, and social economy. In this study, we used species distribution modeling (SDM) methods to predict the potential distribution of P. canaliculata in China and found that with climate change, there would be a trend of expanding and moving northward in the future.

Abstract

Pomacea canaliculata is one of the 100 worst invasive alien species in the world, which has significant effects and harm to native species, ecological environment, human health, and social economy. Climate change is one of the major causes of species range shifts. With recent climate change, the distribution of P. canaliculata has shifted northward. Understanding the potential distribution under current and future climate conditions will aid in the management of the risk of its invasion and spread. Here, we used species distribution modeling (SDM) methods to predict the potential distribution of P. canaliculata in China, and the jackknife test was used to assess the importance of environmental variables for modeling. Our study found that precipitation of the warmest quarter and maximum temperature in the coldest months played important roles in the distribution of P. canaliculata. With global warming, there will be a trend of expansion and northward movement in the future. This study could provide recommendations for the management and prevention of snail invasion and expansion.

Hitchhiking Exotic Clam: Dreissena polymorpha (Pallas, 1771) Transported via the Ornamental Plant Trade

Ornamental aquaculture is one of the main sources of non-native species worldwide. Unintentionally transported “hitchhiking” organisms have been previously recorded; although most of these species are transported from tropical regions, here we report on the first accidental transport of the zebra mussel (Dreissena polymorpha) in a shipment of ornamental Aegagropila linnaei (Chlorophyta) from Russia to the Czech Republic. This invasive mussel is listed on the national blacklist of alien species in the Czech Republic and can be easily released in outdoor garden ponds together with A. linnaei. Since the Czech Republic is known to be a gateway for aquatic ornamental species from a European perspective, re-export to other European countries is also possible. Thus, the spread of D. polymorpha via this pathway cannot be excluded. This finding should be of importance to conservationists, traders, decision-makers and other stakeholders.

Spatial pattern and determinants of global invasion risk of an invasive species, sharpbelly Hemiculter leucisculus (Basilesky, 1855)

Invasive species have imposed huge negative impacts on worldwide aquatic ecosystems and are generally difficult or impossible to be eradicated once established. Consequently, it becomes particularly important to ascertain their invasion risk and its determinants since such information can help us formulate more effective preventive or management actions and direct these measures to those areas where they are truly needed so as to ease regulatory burdens. Here, we examined the global invasion risk and its determinants of sharpbelly (Hemiculter leucisculus), one freshwater fish which has a high invasive potential, by using species distribution models (SDMs) and a layer overlay method. Specifically, first an ensemble species distribution model and its basal models (developed from seven machine learning algorithms) were explored to forecast the global habitat-suitability and variables importance for this species, and then a global invasion risk map was created by combining habitat-suitability with a proxy for introduction likelihood (entailing propagule pressure and dispersal constraints) of exotic sharpbelly. The results revealed that (1) the ensemble model had the highest predictive power in forecasting sharpbelly's global habitat-suitability; (2) areas with high invasion risk by sharpbelly patchily spread over the world except Antarctica; and (3) the Human Influence Index (HII), rather than any of the bioclimatic variables, was the most important factor influencing sharpbelly' future invasion. Based on these results, the present study also attempted to propose a series of prevention and management strategies to eliminate or alleviate the adverse effects caused by this species' further expansion.

Investigating the Current and Future Co-Occurrence of Ambrosia artemisiifolia and Ophraella communa in Europe through Ecological Modelling and Remote Sensing Data Analysis

The common ragweed Ambrosia artemisiifolia has spread throughout Europe since the 1800s, infesting croplands and causing severe allergic reactions. Recently, the ragweed leaf beetle Ophraella communa was found in Italy and Switzerland; considering that it feeds primarily on A. artemisiifolia in its invaded ranges, some projects started biological control of this invasive plant through the adventive beetle. In this context of a ‘double’ invasion, we assessed the influence of climate change on the spread of these alien species through ecological niche modelling. Considering that A. artemisiifolia mainly lives in agricultural and urbanized areas, we refined the models using satellite remote-sensing data; we also assessed the co-occurrence of the two species in these patches. A. artemisiifolia is predicted to expand more than O. communa in the future, with the medium and high classes of suitability of the former increasing more than the latter, resulting in lower efficacy for O. communa to potentially control A. artemisiifolia in agricultural and urbanized patches. Although a future assessment was performed through the 2018 land-cover data, the predictions we propose are intended to be a starting point for future assessments, considering that the possibility of a shrinkage of target patches is unlikely to occur.

Potential Elevation Shift of the European Beech Stands (Fagus sylvatica L.) in Serbia

According to climate projection models, the global temperature is expected to rise by at least 1.5°C by the end of this century. According to some studies the expected rise in Serbia is even higher. Global warming may result in creating new areas for forest growth. Although creating new forests would be a positive outcome in some areas, global warming can cause negative impacts in other areas, and this can lead to forest loss and the shift of geographical ranges, or even extinction, of plant species. The European beech is the dominant forest tree species in Serbia, featuring high ecological importance and economic value. In mixed or pure stands, beech forests cover approximately 660,400 ha, accounting for 29.3% of the total Serbian forest area. In the present study, the effects of climate change on the distribution of the European beech stands in Serbia, with an emphasis on their elevation shifts, were examined using species distribution models (SDMs). Data for the present tree cover in Serbia, climate projections, and environmental data were used for model building. The models were first tested against present inventory data. In these tests, the models were found to provide accurate projections, as shown by their true skills statistics (TSS) values ranging from 0.652 to 0.736 and area under the curve (AUC) values ranging from 0.868 to 0.937. The potential distribution patterns predicted by the models indicate that the European beech elevational distribution in Serbia would decrease, exhibiting a significant upward shift in elevation during the first part of this century. Current beech stand locations could be changed, and other areas at higher elevations may be more suitable for beech growth. After 2071, European beech stands at elevations below 500 m would be even smaller. This change is caused by temperature rise and occurrence of climate extremes. However, on the highest elevations, further upward shift of the species is not expected.