Climate change: a friend or foe to food security in Africa?

Long-term relationships of beef and dairy cattle and greenhouse gas emissions: Application of co-integrated panel models for Latin America

The cattle sector plays a pivotal role in the economies of numerous Latin American and Caribbean countries. However, it also exerts a significant impact on environmental degradation, including substantial contributions to greenhouse gas emissions (accounting for 23.5 % of global livestock emissions) and deforestation (70 % attributed to livestock in South America). This article aims to investigate the complex, long-term, and short-term relationships between population growth, pastureland expansion, deforestation, and the cattle sector in 15 countries across the region, focusing on their effects on greenhouse gas emissions as well as beef and dairy production. Utilizing data from FAOSTAT spanning the period from 1990 to 2019, a cointegrated panel model was developed using the Pooled Mean Group technique, resulting in the estimation of six models. The aggregate-level results for the region reveal the presence of relatively stable long-term relationships. This implies that over time, the influence of population growth, pastureland expansion, and deforestation on greenhouse gas emissions from cattle production tends to diminish in significance. This long-term behavior may be particularly pronounced in countries with more developed cattle sectors, where efforts to mitigate the environmental impacts of cattle production, such as promoting improved forage technologies, silvo-pastoral systems, grazing management practices, and the implementation of policies, regulatory frameworks, and incentives, have gained traction. These progressive countries can serve as regional benchmarks, and the lessons they have learned hold valuable insights for the sustainable intensification of cattle production in countries with less-developed cattle sectors.

Understanding the connections between climate change, air pollution, and human health in Africa: Insights from a literature review

Climate change and air pollution are two interconnected global challenges that have profound impacts on human health. In Africa, a continent known for its rich biodiversity and diverse ecosystems, the adverse effects of climate change and air pollution are particularly concerning. This review study examines the implications of air pollution and climate change for human health and well-being in Africa. It explores the intersection of these two factors and their impact on various health outcomes, including cardiovascular disease, respiratory disorders, mental health, and vulnerable populations such as children and the elderly. The study highlights the disproportionate effects of air pollution on vulnerable groups and emphasizes the need for targeted interventions and policies to protect their health. Furthermore, it discusses the role of climate change in exacerbating air pollution and the potential long-term consequences for public health in Africa. The review also addresses the importance of considering temperature and precipitation changes as modifiers of the health effects of air pollution. By synthesizing existing research, this study aims to shed light on complex relationships and highlight the key findings, knowledge gaps, and potential solutions for mitigating the impacts of climate change and air pollution on human health in the region. The insights gained from this review can inform evidence-based policies and interventions to mitigate the adverse effects on human health and promote sustainable development in Africa.

Climate change and sustainable agricultural growth in the sahel region: Mitigating or resilient policy response?

The aim of this study is to provide an empirical answer to the question of whether nexus exists between climate change and sustainable agricultural growth in nine (9) countries within the Sahel region between 1990 and 2020. The study utilized Panel ARDL and Pairwise Dumitrescu Hurlin Panel Causality Tests to arrive at the following conclusions; firstly, the climate change orchestrated by change in rainfall is a very prominent factor causing reduction in sustainable agricultural growth in the Sahel region. One way feedback relationship flows from sustainable agricultural growth to greenhouse gas emission. In the light of the above, this study recommends that, in addressing the adverse effects of change in rainfall on agricultural sustainability, the policymakers in the Sahel region in particular and Africa as a whole should embark on a policy mix by embanking on mitigating policy response towards ensuring sustainable agricultural production via irrigation which is the best mode of water provisions without causing negative spilliovers on the environment. Also, the policymakers should be proactive by embarking on policies and programs that would build the resilience and adaptation of the region ahead of the future adverse effects of agriculturally induced climatic change.

The effects of climate change-induced flooding on harvest failure in Burkina Faso: case study

Background

Climate change leads to more frequent and severe extreme weather events including floods, heatwaves, heavy rainfalls, and droughts. In contrast to the majority of research on weather extremes in sub-Saharan Africa, which focus primarily on how a lack of rainfall causes droughts, this paper aims to elucidate the effect of flooding on harvest failure in rural Burkina Faso.

Methods

We conducted a case study in north-western Nouna, Burkina Faso, between August and December 2021 covering a study population of n = 180 participants. The study comprised four components: (i) interviews with farmers (n = 180) on whether any of their fields had been inundated and if so, on harvest loss on these fields; (ii) determining the feasibility of using Sentinel-2 satellite images to validate study participants reports of floods; (iii) characterizing short-term weather including frequency and duration, of extreme rainfall events within the study area, as well as comparing cumulative rainfall (long-term) over the past 50 years; and (v), estimating both the food energy and economic loss of harvest failure due to flooding.

Results

49% of interviewed farmers (n = 88) reported that floods had damaged at least one of their fields. Some fields (n = 13, 7%) had no harvest due to flooding, while some farmers (n = 14, 8%) had lost part of their harvest. Images from the Sentinel-2-Satellite indicated that reported and remotely observed flooding were consistent. According to time series of data from the local weather station, there has been an increase irregular rainfall distribution and at the same time of cumulative annual rainfall in Nouna. Furthermore, a first illustrative calculation allowed us to estimate the amount of energy lost when one hectare of a common crop is flooded.

Conclusion

This case study demonstrated that flood-related harvest failures leading to crop losses in sub-Saharan Africa, exemplified by Burkina Faso, are likely to be substantial. This study serves as a proof-of-principle for flooding effects on food security. This could provide more detail for agricultural adaptation and mitigation strategies. Inundation-vulnerable fields need alternative and novel management practices, which may only be effectively implemented if agricultural institutions and national policy-making bodies receive evidence of flooding e.g., from remote sensing.

Drivers of food security in West Africa: Insight from heterogeneous panel data analysis on income-level classification

This paper investigates the factors driving food security in West African countries. Specifically, it examines the impact of natural resource rents, institutional quality, and climate change on food security while controlling for industrialization and economic growth. Our research is motivated by the urgent need for swift policy action to address the escalating food crisis in the region and prevent any potential catastrophic consequences. Second-generation econometric techniques are utilized for accurate and reliable outcomes based on yearly datasets from West African countries from 2000 to 2020, and the countries are sub-grouped into low-income and lower-middle-income. The findings unveil the panel as heterogeneous and cross-sectionally based, and all the study variables are first differenced stationary and co-integrated in the long run. Hence, the Augmented Mean Group and Common Correlated Effects Mean Group estimators are utilized to explore the relationships between the variables, and the findings reveal that natural resource rents, climate change, and industrialization are detrimental to food security across the sub-groups. However, the outcomes affirm institutional quality and economic growth as beneficial drivers of food security across the sub-groups. Therefore, this study recommends that authorities of both low-income and lower-middle-income countries make substantial investments in sustainable natural resource utilization and also work towards enhancing the efficiency and effectiveness of their institutions, as well as investing in environmental research to explore climate change mitigation possibilities that could enhance food security in West Africa.

The impacts of climatic conditions on cereal production: implications for food security in Africa

Climate change is a confounding factor that affects food security in several ways. Although the analyses of earlier studies in this area were largely non-technical, new analytical techniques have been developed to comprehensively evaluate climate change patterns and their implications for food security. In this study, we use recent developments in panel econometrics, which consider cross-sectional dependence and parameter heterogeneity, to examine the effects of climatic conditions on cereal farming in Africa from 1970Q1 to 2017Q4. The results show that rainfall positively affects cereal crops, although average temperatures are typically unfavourable. In the country-specific scenarios, we observed significant variations in the influence of climatic conditions on cereal production. The causality test results show a two-way causal relationship between climatic conditions-rainfall and temperature-and cereal production. It is suggested that African governments and non-governmental organisations support farmers' adaptation to climate change by implementing policies that prioritise farmers' capacity building and ensure that extension service officers engage with farmers intensively.

Examining the impacts of climate change and political instability on rice production: empirical evidence from Nigeria

The Nigerian government is committed to sustaining rice production to meet national demand. Nevertheless, political tension and climate-induced stressors remain crucial constraints in achieving policy targets. This study examines whether climate change and political instability significantly threaten rice production in Nigeria. First, we employed nonparametric methods to estimate the country's rainfall and temperature trends between 1980Q1 and 2015Q4. Second, we employed the autoregressive distributed lag (ARDL) technique to examine the effects of climate change and political instability on rice production. The results show that while temperature has an increasing pattern, rainfall exhibits no significant trend. The findings from the ARDL estimate reveal that rice production responds negatively to temperature changes but is less sensitive to changes in rainfall. In addition, political instability adversely affects rice production in Nigeria. We argue that Nigeria's slow growth in rice production can be traced back to the impact of climate change and political tension in rice farming areas. As a result, reducing the overall degree of conflict to ensure political stability is critical to boosting the country's self-sufficiency in rice production. We also recommend that farmers be supported and trained to adopt improved rice varieties less prone to extreme climate events while supporting them with irrigation facilities to facilitate rice production.

How do carbon emissions, economic growth, population growth, trade openness and employment influence food security? Recent evidence from the East Africa

East Africa has a substantially greater rate of food insecurity than other regions of the world. Scenarios of climate change and other macroeconomic variables are important contributors to food insecurity in East Africa. Using data spanning from 1990 to 2020, this study looked into the influence of carbon dioxide (CO₂) emissions, economic growth, population growth, trade openness, and agricultural employment on food security in the East Africa. The fully modified ordinary least square (FMOLS) and dynamic ordinary least square (DOLS) models were used in this study. The heterogeneous panel cointegration test's findings indicated that the study variables have an equilibrium long-term connections. The estimation findings from the FMOLS and DOLS models showed that an increase in CO₂ emissions increases food security in the East Africa over the long term. According to other findings, long-term food security is positively impacted by economic expansion, population growth, trade openness, and employment in agriculture. However, trade openness has a detrimental long-lasting effect on food security. Future research directions, research limitations, and policy implications are discussed.

Reversing Years for Global Food Security: A Review of the Food Security Situation in Sub-Saharan Africa (SSA)

All around the world, inequalities persist in the complex web of social, economic, and ecological factors that mediate food security outcomes at different human and institutional scales. There have been rapid and continuous improvements in agricultural productivity and better food security in many regions of the world during the past 50 years due to an expansion in crop area, irrigation, and supportive policy and institutional initiatives. However, in Sub-Saharan Africa, the situation is inverted. Statistics show that food insecurity has risen since 2015 in Sub-Saharan African countries, and the situation has worsened owing to the Ukraine conflict and the ongoing implications of the COVID-19 threat. This review looks into multidimensional challenges to achieving the SDG2 goal of "End hunger, achieve food security and improved nutrition, and promote sustainable agriculture" in Sub-Saharan Africa and the prosper policy recommendations for action. Findings indicate that weak economic growth, gender inequality, high inflation, low crop productivity, low investment in irrigated agriculture and research, climate change, high population growth, poor policy frameworks, weak infrastructural development, and corruption are the major hurdles in the sustaining food security in Sub-Saharan Africa. Promoting investments in agricultural infrastructure and extension services together with implementing policies targeted at enhancing the households' purchasing power, especially those in rural regions, appear to be essential drivers for improving both food availability and food access.

Empirical analysis of rice and maize production under climate change in China

The past few decades of extreme drought and flooding caused by changing climate conditions have significantly affected agricultural production globally. This study focuses on two vital crops in China-maize and rice-and provides a comprehensive analysis of how these crops are affected by climate change-induced factors over the periods 1978Q1-2015Q4. Four key findings were obtained. First, using a nonparametric approach to estimate actual and observed trends of climatic variables, the results show a significant positive trend in average temperature from February to October. On the other hand, seasonal temperature increases during spring, summer, and autumn. Second, the results show no significant change in the monthly, seasonal, and annual rainfall patterns when examined over the study period. Third, using an autoregressive distributed lag (ARDL) model, we find that while temperature and rainfall do not significantly support rice production in the long and short run, they play a substantial role in maize production in China. Finally, we find no significant difference in the results for rice when the quantile regression (QR) technique that controls for distributional asymmetry effects is employed. However, the impact of temperature on maize decreases at higher quantiles. Given the outcomes of our study, we argue that an advanced irrigation system is crucial and must be encouraged to minimize the effects of climate change on crop production.

Understanding Needs and Potentials for Gender-Balanced Empowerment and Leadership in Climate Change Adaptation and Mitigation in Africa

The past years were marked by the COVID-19 pandemic, economic downfall, the 5th anniversary of the Paris Climate Agreement, and the end of the African Women’s Decade. According to the latest projections, African countries will continue to face increasing inequalities, as well as risks to human health, water and food security, due to climate change. African countries are also struggling to reduce gender-related power imbalances in adaptation and mitigation that magnify existing vulnerabilities, particularly those of women. Therefore, any advances made in this narrative are significant. This paper investigates the needs and potential for gender-balanced leadership/empowerment in adaptation and mitigation based on climate change experts’ views on the advances made in Africa. This is complemented by a bibliometric analysis of the literature published on the topic between the years 2015 and 2022. The study suggests that although women’s influence on climate change related decisions is growing, a series of barriers need to be overcome, among which are lack of knowledge and political will. The COVID-19 pandemic is seen as having both positive and negative potentials for gender-balanced leadership/empowerment. The findings provide a premise for identifying possible directions of further actions towards gender-balanced leadership/empowerment in climate change in African countries.

Does financial development mitigate the effects of climate variability on rice cultivation? Empirical evidence from agrarian economy

This study is the first attempt to examine the effects of changing climate and financial development on rice cultivation in the context of agrarian economy like Thailand from 1969 to 2016. The current study also uses other important variables, such as cultivated area, organic fertilizers usage, and rural labor to determine the long-term connection amid variables. In this study, we applied several econometric techniques, for instance the autoregressive distributive lag-error correction model (ARDL-ECM), vector error correction model (VECM), impulse response functions (IMFs), and variance decomposition (VARD) method to estimate the most reliable and robust outcomes. The empirical results showed that in the long- and short-run, there is a reduction in rice cultivation as temperature increase. The carbon dioxide (CO₂) positively affects rice cultivation in the long-run, while this association is negative in the short-run. The findings further revealed that in the long- and short-run, domestic credit provided by the financial sector significantly positive improved rice cultivation, while domestic credit to private sector by banks negatively affects rice cultivation. The important input factors, including cultivated area, organic fertilizers usage, and rural labor significantly positive contributed toward rice cultivation in the long- and short-run. The calculated long-run causal connection of all the studied variables with rice cultivation is validated. The estimated short-run causal relationship is unidirectional among temperature, CO₂ emissions, financial development, rural labor, and rice cultivation. In addition, our outcomes are robust and also verified by IMFs and VARD method. The study offers some important policy suggestions to increase rice production with the help of sound and well-developed financial systems and climate controls.