Small Effects of Selective Migration and Selective Survival in Retrospective Studies of Fertility: Faibles effets de sélection de la migration et de la mortalité sur la fécondité dans les études rétrospectives

Sustained and Universal Fertility Recuperation in Kazakhstan

The fertility rates of Kazakhstan have reversed to levels not seen for several decades. The striking fertility increase poses questions regarding the extent to which this new development is shared across socio-demographic groups and the nature of fertility recuperation. The current study employs UNICEF Multiple Indicator Cluster Survey data and event-history modelling to analyse parity progressions to one, two, three, and four children. The results suggest a sustained fertility increase that is not merely associated with the recuperation of delayed first births, but a genuine increase across all birth orders. This pattern is evident for both main ethnicities in Kazakhstan and across educational groups. The gradual increase of higher-order births, especially among ethnic Kazakhs, indicates a reversed fertility transition and also that the previous fertility decline in the 1990s was not part of a general transition towards below-replacement fertility but rather a reflection of economic crisis after the collapse of the Soviet Union.

Understanding How Immigrant Fertility Differentials Vary over the Reproductive Life Course

Studies of immigrant fertility differentials indicate that foreign-born women have more children than native-born women, at least for some origin groups. Yet little is known about variation in cumulative fertility differentials over the life course, including the extent to which this variation develops into completed fertility differentials. This research responds with an analysis of cumulative fertility differentials in the UK for a cohort of women born between 1942 and 1971. Findings are consistent with age-specific patterns that have been documented for immigrant groups in the UK, but underline the importance of taking a cohort perspective, which helps to distinguish between the tempo and quantum of fertility. Immigrants have significantly higher completed fertility than UK-born natives if they were born in India, Pakistan, Bangladesh, Jamaica, or Western and Central Africa, but the profile of their cumulative fertility differentials—versus the UK-born—varies considerably over the life course, especially by age at migration. For example, women from Bangladesh and Pakistan have similar levels of cumulative fertility at age 40, but very different age patterns of cumulative fertility from ages 20–40. There is a consistent pattern of relatively delayed Pakistani fertility at early ages, especially for those arriving at later ages, but the same is not true for women from Bangladesh. Overall, these results imply that researchers should beware of variation in cohort fertility over the life course—with respect to both the quantum and tempo of fertility—when analysing immigrant childbearing, in addition to variation by origin and age at arrival.

Disparities in Children's Family Experiences by Mother's Socioeconomic Status: The Case of Finland

A well-known argument claims that socioeconomic differentials in children's family structures have become increasingly important in shaping child outcomes and the resources available to children in developed societies. One assumption is that differentials are comparatively small in Nordic welfare states. Our study examines how children's experiences of family structures and family dynamics vary by their mother's educational attainment in Finland. Based on register data on the childbearing and union histories of women in Finland born from 1969 onwards, we provide life-table estimates of children's (N = 64,162) experiences of family dissolution, family formation, and family structure from ages 0-15 years, stratified by mother's education level at the child's birth. We find huge socioeconomic disparities in children's experiences of family structures and transitions. Compared to children of highly educated mothers, children of mothers with low levels of education are almost twice as likely to be born in cohabitation and four times as likely to be born to a lone mother. They are also much more likely to experience further changes in family structure-particularly parental separation. On average, children of low-educated mothers spend just half of their childhood years living with both their parents, whereas those of high-educated mothers spend four-fifths of their childhood with both parents. The sociodemographic inequalities among children in Nordic welfare states clearly deserve more scholarly attention.

Fertility and union formation during crisis and societal consolidation in the Western Balkans

Fertility decline in central and eastern Europe (CEE) since the fall of the communist regimes has been driven by both stopping and postponement of childbearing: two processes that have been related to crisis and economic development, respectively. In the Western Balkans these economic and political contexts followed each other in the form of a biphasic transition. I examine whether this sequence triggered fertility responses like those observed elsewhere. Relying on three independent data sources, I cross-validate the levels of, and describe the trends in, union formation and fertility (by birth order) between 1980 and 2010. Results do not reveal widespread declines in fertility to lowest-low levels during the most acute period of crisis. The subsequent postponement of marriage and first birth was also limited, and the two-child family remains the norm. This relative resilience of childbearing patterns compared with other CEE countries is discussed with reference to the institutional context.