Geospatial multivariate analysis of COVID-19: a global perspective

Siting of fuel stations within residential areas in Ghanaian cities: Perceptions of residents in Wa on fire disaster risks

This paper responds to the limited literature on perceptions of fire disaster risks associated with the siting of fuel stations in dense residential areas in African cities. We address three interrelated research objectives regarding fire disaster risk and safety behaviours. First, we explore residents' perception of the reasons for the siting of fuel stations in residential areas. Second, we examine their sociodemographic characteristics and perception of fire disaster risks associated with fuel stations; and third, we examine residents' fire safety behaviours around fuel stations. We address these objectives by engaging with risk perception theory and protection motivation theory as well as an empirical review of literature worldwide. We also draw evidence from Wa in Ghana using a mixed research approach involving 182 participants. Through a questionnaire, observation checklist, a camera, and an in-depth interview guide, we elicited data from residents and relevant stakeholders to address our research questions. The quantitative data were analysed using descriptive statistics and a chi-square test, while thematic analysis was used to analyse the responses obtained from the interviews. We found that ease of access and competition motivated the siting of fuel stations in residential areas. Although residents knew the risk of living near fuel stations, measures were not implemented to reduce their vulnerability to fire disasters. People living near fuel stations should be encouraged to invest in equipment and take measures to reduce their vulnerability to fire disasters.

Advance Monitoring of COVID-19 Incidence Based on Taxi Mobility: The Infection Ratio Measure

The COVID-19 pandemic has had a profound impact on various aspects of our lives, affecting personal, occupational, economic, and social spheres. Much has been learned since the early 2020s, which will be very useful when the next pandemic emerges. In general, mobility and virus spread are strongly related. However, most studies analyze the impact of COVID-19 on mobility, but not much research has focused on analyzing the impact of mobility on virus transmission, especially from the point of view of monitoring virus incidence, which is extremely important for making sound decisions to control any epidemiological threat to public health. As a result of a thorough analysis of COVID-19 and mobility data, this work introduces a novel measure, the Infection Ratio (IR), which is not sensitive to underestimation of positive cases and is very effective in monitoring the pandemic's upward or downward evolution when it appears to be more stable, thus anticipating possible risk situations. For a bounded spatial context, we can infer that there is a significant threshold in the restriction of mobility that determines a change of trend in the number of infections that, if maintained for a minimum period, would notably increase the chances of keeping the spread of disease under control. Results show that IR is a reliable indicator of the intensity of infection, and an effective measure for early monitoring and decision making in smart cities.

Predicting survival of Iranian COVID-19 patients infected by various variants including omicron from CT Scan images and clinical data using deep neural networks

Purpose: The rapid spread of the COVID-19 omicron variant virus has resulted in an overload of hospitals around the globe. As a result, many patients are deprived of hospital facilities, increasing mortality rates. Therefore, mortality rates can be reduced by efficiently assigning facilities to higher-risk patients. Therefore, it is crucial to estimate patients' survival probability based on their conditions at the time of admission so that the minimum required facilities can be provided, allowing more opportunities to be available for those who need them. Although radiologic findings in chest computerized tomography scans show various patterns, considering the individual risk factors and other underlying diseases, it is difficult to predict patient prognosis through routine clinical or statistical analysis. Method: In this study, a deep neural network model is proposed for predicting survival based on simple clinical features, blood tests, axial computerized tomography scan images of lungs, and the patients' planned treatment. The model's architecture combines a Convolutional Neural Network and a Long Short Term Memory network. The model was trained using 390 survivors and 108 deceased patients from the Rasoul Akram Hospital and evaluated 109 surviving and 36 deceased patients infected by the omicron variant. Results: The proposed model reached an accuracy of 87.5% on the test data, indicating survival prediction possibility. The accuracy was significantly higher than the accuracy achieved by classical machine learning methods without considering computerized tomography scan images (p-value <= 4E-5). The images were also replaced with hand-crafted features related to the ratio of infected lung lobes used in classical machine-learning models. The highest-performing model reached an accuracy of 84.5%, which was considerably higher than the models trained on mere clinical information (p-value <= 0.006). However, the performance was still significantly less than the deep model (p-value <= 0.016). Conclusion: The proposed deep model achieved a higher accuracy than classical machine learning methods trained on features other than computerized tomography scan images. This proves the images contain extra information. Meanwhile, Artificial Intelligence methods with multimodal inputs can be more reliable and accurate than computerized tomography severity scores.

A Comparative Analysis of Multidimensional COVID-19 Poverty Determinants: An Observational Machine Learning Approach

Poverty is a glaring issue in the twenty-first century, even after concerted efforts of organizations to eliminate the same. Predicting poverty using machine learning can offer practical models for facilitating the process of elimination of poverty. This paper uses Multidimensional Poverty Index Data from the Oxford Poverty and Human Development Initiative across the years 2019 and 2021 to make predictions of multidimensional poverty before and during the pandemic. Several poverty indicators under health, education and living standards are taken into consideration. The work implements several data analysis techniques like feature correlation and selection, and graphical visualizations to answer research questions about poverty. Various machine learning, such as Multiple Linear Regression, Decision Tree Regressor, Random Forest Regressor, XGBoost, AdaBoost, Gradient Boosting, Linear Support Vector Regressor (SVR), Ridge Regression, Lasso Regression, ElasticNet Regression, and K-Nearest Neighbor Regression algorithm, have been implemented to predict poverty across four datasets on a national and a subnational level. Regularization is used to increase the performance of the models, and cross-validation is used for estimation. Through a rigorous analysis and comparison of different models, this work identifies important poverty determinants and concludes that overall, Ridge Regression model performs the best with the highest R ² score.

Spatiotemporal pattern of Covid-19 outbreak in Turkey

The earliest case of Covid-19 was documented in Wuhan city of China and since then the virus has been spreading throughout the globe. The aim of this study is to evaluate the clusters of Covid-19 among the provinces in Turkey and to examine whether the clustering pattern has changed after the country's lockdown strategy. The spatial dependence of Covid-19 in 81 provinces of Turkey was examined by spatial analysis between February 8 and June 28, 2021. Global and Local Moran's I and Gi* were employed to measure the global and local spatial autocorrelation degrees. The geographical distribution of Covid-19 in the provinces of Turkey showed a strong spatial autocorrelation while the spatial structure of the clusters varied by weeks. The findings of the study show that the complete lockdown carried out in Turkey has been quite effective in mitigating Covid-19. The importance of spatial relations in preventing the spread of the disease in Turkey has also been demonstrated in this context.