Prediction of acute coronary syndrome, ischemic stroke, and mortality in patients with heart failure: a comparison of CHA2DS2-VASc and AHEAD scores

Clinical outcomes in heart failure patients with and without atrial fibrillation receiving sodium-glucose cotransporter-2 inhibitor

We report a retrospective analysis of a nationwide health database to study the association between sodium-glucose cotransporter-2 inhibitor (SGLT2I) use and the incidence of adverse clinical outcomes among heart failure (HF) patients with and without atrial fibrillation (AF) stratified by CHA2DS2-VASc score. The outcome of this study was on the development of adverse events, including acute myocardial infarction (AMI), hemorrhagic stroke, ischemic stroke, cardiovascular (CV) death, and all-cause mortality. By dividing the number of adverse events by the total person-years, the incidence rate was calculated. The hazard ratio (HR) was estimated by the Cox proportional hazard model. A total of 95% confidence interval (CI) was also presented to show the risk of adverse events for HF patients with and without AF taking SGLT2I. SGLT2I users had a lower risk of AMI (adjusted HR = 0.83; 95% CI = 0.74, 0.94), CV death (adjusted HR = 0.47; 95% CI = 0.42, 0.51), and all-cause death (adjusted HR = 0.39; 95% CI = 0.37, 0.41). Considering HF patients without AF and SGLT2I as the reference group, HF patients without AF but with SGLT2I had a reduced risk of adverse outcomes of 0.48 (95% CI = 0.45, 0.50), and HF patients with AF and SGLT2I had the decreased hazard ratio of 0.55 (95% CI = 0.50, 0.61). The adjusted HR of adverse outcomes for HF patients with CHA2DS2-VASc score less than 2 and SGLT2I without and with AF relative to HF patients without AF nor SGLT2I were 0.53 (95% CI = 0.41, 0.67) and 0.24 (95% CI = 0.12, 0.47), respectively. Compared to HF patients with no history of AF and SGLT2I, if patients additionally with SGLT2I and CHA2DS2-VASc score ≥ 2, the risk of the adverse outcomes was reduced with adjusted HR of 0.48 (95% CI = 0.45, 0.50); if patients additionally with AF and CHA2DS2-VASc score ≥ 2, the risk of the adverse outcomes was decreased with adjusted HR of 0.88 (95% CI = 0.80, 0.97); if patients additionally with AF, SGLT2I, and CHA2DS2-VASc score ≥ 2, the risk of the adverse outcomes was diminished with adjusted HR of 0.52 (95% CI = 0.47, 0.58). We concluded that SGLT2I has a protective effect in HF patients, and the risk reduction is greater with a score of < 2 and without AF.

Performance of current risk stratification models for predicting mortality in patients with heart failure: a systematic review and meta-analysis

AIMS

There are several risk scores designed to predict mortality in patients with heart failure (HF). This study aimed to assess performance of risk scores validated for mortality prediction in patients with acute HF (AHF) and chronic HF.

METHODS AND RESULTS

MEDLINE and Scopus were searched from January 2015 to January 2021 for studies which internally or externally validated risk models for predicting all-cause mortality in patients with AHF and chronic HF. Discrimination data were analysed using C-statistics, and pooled using generic inverse-variance random-effects model. Nineteen studies (n = 494 156 patients; AHF: 24 762; chronic HF mid-term mortality: 62 000; chronic HF long-term mortality: 452 097) and 11 risk scores were included. Overall, discrimination of risk scores was good across the three subgroups: AHF mortality [C-statistic: 0.76 (0.68-0.83)], chronic HF mid-term mortality [1 year; C-statistic: 0.74 (0.68-0.79)], and chronic HF long-term mortality [≥2 years; C-statistic: 0.71 (0.69-0.73)]. MEESSI-AHF [C-statistic: 0.81 (0.80-0.83)] and MARKER-HF [C-statistic: 0.85 (0.80-0.89)] had an excellent discrimination for AHF and chronic HF mid-term mortality, respectively, whereas MECKI had good discrimination [C-statistic: 0.78 (0.73-0.83)] for chronic HF long-term mortality relative to other models. Overall, risk scores predicting short-term mortality in patients with AHF did not have evidence of poor calibration (Hosmer-Lemeshow P > 0.05). However, risk models predicting mid-term and long-term mortality in patients with chronic HF varied in calibration performance.

CONCLUSIONS

The majority of recently validated risk scores showed good discrimination for mortality in patients with HF. MEESSI-AHF demonstrated excellent discrimination in patients with AHF, and MARKER-HF and MECKI displayed an excellent discrimination in patients with chronic HF. However, modest reporting of calibration and lack of head-to-head comparisons in same populations warrant future studies.

Gender and functional outcomes in prestroke depressive patients treated with thrombolytic therapy

Aim: This study investigated the clinical factors associated with functional ambulatory outcomes and gender differences in prestroke depressive patients. Materials & methods: Clinical risk factors associated with improved functional outcomes with recombinant tissue plasminogen activator-treated cohorts were determined using binary logistic regression. Results: In the adjusted analysis, improvement in ambulation was associated with male patients that had higher National Institute of Health stroke scale score (p = 0.04), a stroke history (p = 0.026), lower serum creatinine levels (p = 0.049) and were taking cholesterol reducing medication (p = 0.014). Improvement in females was associated with taking antidepressants (p = 0.027) and having lower National Institute of Health stroke scale score (p = 0.002). Conclusion: Our findings indicate gender disparities between male and female prestroke depressive patients.