A hidden Markov model to assess drug-induced sleep fragmentation in the telemetered rat

A hidden Markov modeling approach combining objective measure of activity and subjective measure of self-reported sleep to estimate the sleep-wake cycle

Characterizing the sleep-wake cycle in adolescents is an important prerequisite to better understand the association of abnormal sleep patterns with subsequent clinical and behavioral outcomes. The aim of this research was to develop hidden Markov models (HMM) that incorporate both objective (actigraphy) and subjective (sleep log) measures to estimate the sleep-wake cycle using data from the NEXT longitudinal study, a large population-based cohort study. The model was estimated with a negative binomial distribution for the activity counts (1-minute epochs) to account for overdispersion relative to a Poisson process. Furthermore, self-reported measures were dichotomized (for each one-minute interval) and subject to misclassification. We assumed that the unobserved sleep-wake cycle follows a two-state Markov chain with transitional probabilities varying according to a circadian rhythm. Maximum-likelihood estimation using a backward-forward algorithm was applied to fit the longitudinal data on a subject by subject basis. The algorithm was used to reconstruct the sleep-wake cycle from sequences of self-reported sleep and activity data. Furthermore, we conduct simulations to examine the properties of this approach under different observational patterns including both complete and partially observed measurements on each individual.

Handling underlying discrete variables with bivariate mixed hidden Markov models in NONMEM

Non-linear mixed effects models typically deal with stochasticity in observed processes but models accounting for only observed processes may not be the most appropriate for all data. Hidden Markov models (HMMs) characterize the relationship between observed and hidden variables where the hidden variables can represent an underlying and unmeasurable disease status for example. Adding stochasticity to HMMs results in mixed HMMs (MHMMs) which potentially allow for the characterization of variability in unobservable processes. Further, HMMs can be extended to include more than one observation source and are then multivariate HMMs. In this work MHMMs were developed and applied in a chronic obstructive pulmonary disease example. The two hidden states included in the model were remission and exacerbation and two observation sources were considered, patient reported outcomes (PROs) and forced expiratory volume (FEV1). Estimation properties in the software NONMEM of model parameters were investigated with and without random and covariate effect parameters. The influence of including random and covariate effects of varying magnitudes on the parameters in the model was quantified and a power analysis was performed to compare the power of a single bivariate MHMM with two separate univariate MHMMs. A bivariate MHMM was developed for simulating and analysing hypothetical COPD data consisting of PRO and FEV1 measurements collected every week for 60 weeks. Parameter precision was high for all parameters with the exception of the variance of the transition rate dictating the transition from remission to exacerbation (relative root mean squared error [RRMSE] > 150%). Parameter precision was better with higher magnitudes of the transition probability parameters. A drug effect was included on the transition rate probability and the precision of the drug effect parameter improved with increasing magnitude of the parameter. The power to detect the drug effect was improved by utilizing a bivariate MHMM model over the univariate MHMM models where the number of subject required for 80% power was 25 with the bivariate MHMM model versus 63 in the univariate MHMM FEV1 model and > 100 in the univariate MHMM PRO model. The results advocates for the use of bivariate MHMM models when implementation is possible.

Pharmacometrics models with hidden Markovian dynamics

The aim of this paper is to provide an overview of pharmacometric models that involve some latent process with Markovian dynamics. Such models include hidden Markov models which may be useful for describing the dynamics of a disease state that jumps from one state to another at discrete times. On the contrary, diffusion models are continuous-time and continuous-state Markov models that are relevant for modelling non observed phenomena that fluctuate continuously and randomly over time. We show that an extension of these models to mixed effects models is straightforward in a population context. We then show how the forward-backward algorithm used for inference in hidden Markov models and the extended Kalman filter used for inference in diffusion models can be combined with standard inference algorithms in mixed effects models for estimating the parameters of the model. The use of these models is illustrated with two applications: a hidden Markov model for describing the epileptic activity of a large number of patients and a stochastic differential equation based model for describing the pharmacokinetics of theophyllin.

Unsupervised Estimation of Mouse Sleep Scores and Dynamics Using a Graphical Model of Electrophysiological Measurements

The proportion, number of bouts, and mean bout duration of different vigilance states (Wake, NREM, REM) are useful indices of dynamics in experimental sleep research. These metrics are estimated by first scoring state, sometimes using an algorithm, based on electrophysiological measurements such as the electroencephalogram (EEG) and electromyogram (EMG), and computing their values from the score sequence. Isolated errors in the scores can lead to large discrepancies in the estimated sleep metrics. But most algorithms score sleep by classifying the state from EEG/EMG features independently in each time epoch without considering the dynamics across epochs, which could provide contextual information. The objective here is to improve estimation of sleep metrics by fitting a probabilistic dynamical model to mouse EEG/EMG data and then predicting the metrics from the model parameters. Hidden Markov models (HMMs) with multivariate Gaussian observations and Markov state transitions were fitted to unlabeled 24-h EEG/EMG feature time series from 20 mice to model transitions between the latent vigilance states; a similar model with unbiased transition probabilities served as a reference. Sleep metrics predicted from the HMM parameters did not deviate significantly from manual estimates except for rapid eye movement sleep (REM) ([Formula: see text]; Wilcoxon signed-rank test). Changes in value from Light to Dark conditions correlated well with manually estimated differences (Spearman’s rho 0.43–0.84) except for REM. HMMs also scored vigilance state with over 90% accuracy. HMMs of EEG/EMG features can therefore characterize sleep dynamics from EEG/EMG measurements, a prerequisite for characterizing the effects of perturbation in sleep monitoring and control applications.