Lessons learned from applying adaptation pathways in flood risk management and challenges for the further development of this approach

Opportunities for Nature-based Solutions to contribute to Climate-Resilient Development Pathways

There is potential for Nature-based Solutions (NbS) to contribute to Climate Resilient Development (CRD) due to their integrated approach to mitigation, adaptation, and sustainable development. However, despite alignment between NbS and CRD's objectives, realization of this potential is not guaranteed. A CRD Pathways (CRDP) approach helps to analyze the complexities of the relationship between CRD and NbS, and a climate justice lens enables the identification of the multiple ways that NbS can support or undermine CRD by foregrounding the politics inherent in deciding between NbS trade-offs. We use stylized vignettes of potential NbS to examine how the dimensions of climate justice reveal the potential of NbS to contribute to CRDP. We consider tensions in NbS projects between local and global climate objectives, and the potential for NbS framing to reinforce inequalities or unsustainable practices. Ultimately, we present a framework that combines climate justice and CRDP in an analytical tool for understanding the potential for a NbS to support CRD in specific places.

Multi-stage planning of LID-GREI urban drainage systems in response to land-use changes

Long-term planning of urban drainage systems aimed at maintaining the sustainability of urban hydrology remains challenging. In this study, an innovative multi-stage planning framework involving two adaptation pathways for optimizing hybrid low impact development and grey infrastructure (LID-GREI) layouts in opposing chronological orders was explored. The Forward Planning and Backward Planning are adaptation pathways to increase LID in chronological order based on the initial development stage of an urban built-up area and reduce LID in reverse chronological order based on the final development stage, respectively. Two resilience indicators, which considered potential risk scenarios of extreme storms and pipeline failures, were used to evaluate the performance of optimized layouts when land-use changed and evolved over time. Compared these two pathways, Forward Planning made the optimized layouts more economical and resilient in most risk scenarios when land-use changed, while the layouts optimized by Backward Planning showed higher resilience only in the initial stage. Furthermore, a decentralized scheme in Forward Planning was chosen as the optimal solution when taking costs, reliability, resilience, and land-use changes into an overall consideration. Nevertheless, this kind of reverse optimization order offers a novel exploration in planning pathways for discovering the alternative optimization schemes. More comprehensive solutions can be provided to decision-makers. The findings will shed a light on the exploration of optimized layouts in terms of spatial configuration and resilience performance in response to land-use changes. This framework can be used to support long-term investment and planning in urban drainage systems for sustainable stormwater management.

Strategic planning of the integrated urban wastewater system using adaptation pathways

Emerging threats such as climate change and urbanisation pose an unprecedented challenge to the integrated management of urban wastewater systems, which are expected to function in a reliable, resilient and sustainable manner regardless of future conditions. Traditional long term planning is rather limited in developing no-regret strategies that avoid maladaptive lock-ins in the near term and allow for flexibility in the long term. In this study, a novel adaptation pathways approach for urban wastewater management is developed in order to explore the compliance and adaptability potential of intervention strategies in a long term operational period, accounting for different future scenarios and multiple performance objectives in terms of reliability, resilience and sustainability. This multi-criteria multi-scenario approach implements a regret-based method to assess the relative performance of two types of adaptation strategies: (I) standalone strategies (i.e. green or grey strategies only); and (II) hybrid strategies (i.e. combined green and grey strategies). A number of adaptation thresholds (i.e. the points at which the current strategy can no longer meet defined objectives) are defined to identify compliant domains (i.e. periods of time in a future scenario when the performance of a strategy can meet the targets). The results obtained from a case study illustrate the trade-off between adapting to short term pressures and addressing long term challenges. Green strategies show the highest performance in simultaneously meeting near and long term needs, while grey strategies are found less adaptable to changing circumstances. In contrast, hybrid strategies are effective in delivering both short term compliance and long term adaptability. It is also shown that the proposed adaption pathways method can contribute to the identification of adaptation strategies that are developed as future conditions unfold, allowing for more flexibility and avoiding long term commitment to strategies that may cause maladaptation. This provides insights into the near term and long term planning of ensuring the reliability, resilience and sustainability of integrated urban drainage systems.

An interdisciplinary and catchment approach to enhancing urban flood resilience: a Melbourne case

This paper presents a novel interdisciplinary and catchment-based approach for exploring urban flood resilience. Our research identified and developed a diverse set of adaptation measures for Elwood, a suburb in Melbourne, Australia, that is vulnerable to pluvial and coastal flooding. We drew on methods from social science, urban design and environmental engineering to gain integrated insights into the opportunities for Elwood to increase its flood resilience and urban liveability. Results showed that an appropriate balance of social, infrastructural and urban design responses would be required to retreat from, accommodate and protect against flood risk. These would also deliver broader benefits such as securing water supplies through harvested stormwater and mitigating extreme heat through greener landscapes. Our interdisciplinary approach demonstrated the value of (i) engaging with the community to understand their concerns, aspirations and adaptation ideas, (ii) exploring design measures that densify and use urban forms in ways that implement adaptation measures while responding to local context, (iii) adopting modelling techniques to test the performance, robustness and economic viability of possible adaptation solutions, and (iv) innovating governance arrangements and principles needed to improve flood resilience in the Elster Creek catchment. Our research also provided valuable insight on how to operationalize interdisciplinary work in practice, highlighting the importance of sharing an impact agenda, taking a place-based approach, developing a common conceptual framework, and fostering a constructive team culture. This article is part of the theme issue 'Urban flood resilience'.

Integrating blue-green and grey infrastructure through an adaptation pathways approach to surface water flooding

A range of solutions to future flood risk are available ranging from blue-green infrastructure (BGI) as commonly incorporated in sustainable drainage systems (SuDS) to traditional grey infrastructure (e.g. pipe networks, storage tanks, flood walls). Each offers a different profile with respect to costs, flexibility of implementation and the ability to deliver a range of wider benefits beyond their flood protection function. An important question that must be addressed when considering these approaches is what is the most suitable mix of grey and blue-green solutions to urban flooding at any location and at any future time? This paper uses an adaptation pathways approach to compare a range of alternative options to deal with current and expected future flood risk in part of a London borough. Solutions considered separately and in combination include grey pipe expansion, bioretention cells, permeable pavements and storage ponds. A methodological framework combines a range of existing tools to develop, assess and characterize each pathway, including a storm water management model (SWMM), a SuDs opportunity selection tool, an adaptation pathway generator and the CIRIA B£ST tool for monetizing multiple benefits. Climate change is represented by the UK Water Industry Research method for establishing future rainfall intensities for sewer and BGI design. The results showed that by extending the way in which adaptation pathways are compared and evaluated through the wider consideration of multiple benefits there is a trade-off between deferring interventions until they are needed for flood risk mitigation and delivering the multiple benefits associated with interventions so that performance thresholds do not need to be met before introducing new options. The relative contribution of each option's capital and operation and maintenance costs has implications on when the option is implemented as well as the rate of implementation. The monetization of the multiple benefits associated with each pathway shows that their economic co-evaluation alongside infrastructure costs can change the preference for one pathway over another. This article is part of the theme issue 'Urban flood resilience'.

Flood resilience

Three different conceptual frameworks of resilience, including engineering, ecological and social-ecological have been presented and framed within the context of flood risk management. Engineering resilience has demonstrated its value in the design and operation of technological systems in general and in flood resilient technologies in particular. Although limited to the technical domain, it has broadened the objectives of flood resilient technologies and provided guidance in improving their effectiveness. Socio-ecological resilience is conceived as a broader system characteristic that involves the interaction between human and natural systems. It acknowledges that these systems change over time and that these interactions are of complex nature and associated with uncertainties. Building (socio-ecological) resilience in flood risk management strategies calls for an adaptive approach with short-term measures and a set of monitoring criteria for keeping track of developments that might require adaptation in the long-term (adaptation pathways) and thus built-in adaptive capacity as opposed to building engineering resilience which involves a static approach with a fixed time horizon a set of robust measures designed for specific future conditions or scenarios. The two case studies, from a developing and a developed country, indicate that the concepts of ecological and socio-ecological resilience provide guidance for building more resilient flood risk management systems resulting in an approach that embraces flood protection, prevention and preparedness. The case studies also reveal that the translation of resilience concepts into practice remains a challenge. One plausible explanation for this is our inability to arrive at a quantification of socio-ecological resilience taking into account the various attributes of the concept. This article is part of the theme issue 'Urban flood resilience'.

Seasonal and Annual Rainfall Variability and Their Impact on Rural Water Supply Services in the Wami River Basin, Tanzania

In some parts of Africa, rainfall variability has resulted in widespread droughts and floods, thus posing a substantial challenge to water availability in rural areas, especially drinking water. Therefore, due to increasing water demands, increases in the population, and economic development, water supply systems are under constant stress. One of the critical uncertainties surrounding the effects of rainfall variability in Africa is the significant impact that it imposes on rural water supply services. The present study analyzes the trends in annual and seasonal rainfall time series in the Wami River Basin to see if there have been any significant changes in the patterns during the period 1983–2017 and how they affect the access to water supply services in rural areas. The study analyzes the trends of rainfall series of three stations using simple regression, Mann–Kendal Test and Sen’s Slope Estimator. The water point mapping datasets were analyzed considering seasonal variation. The analysis showed a statistically significant positive trend in annual rainfall at Kongwa and March–April–May (MAM) seasonal rainfall at Dakawa. The maximum increase in annual rainfall occurred at Kongwa (5.3 mm year−1) and for MAM seasonal data at Dakawa (4.1 mm year−1). Water points were found to be significantly affected by seasonal changes, both in terms of availability and quality of water. There also exists a strong relationship between rural water services and seasons.

A Hybrid Process to Address Uncertainty and Changing Climate Risk in Coastal Areas Using Dynamic Adaptive Pathways Planning, Multi-Criteria Decision Analysis & Real Options Analysis: A New Zealand Application

Decision makers face challenges in coastal areas about how to address the effects of ongoing and uncertain sea-level rise. Dynamic adaptive pathways planning (DAPP) and Real Options Analysis (ROA) can support decision makers to address irreducible uncertainties in coastal areas. This paper sets out what we learned by complementing multi-criteria decision analysis with DAPP and ROA when developing a 100-year coastal adaptation strategy in Hawke’s Bay, New Zealand. Lessons include the value of collaborative community and decision maker processes for increasing understanding about the changing risk over time, and the need to take early actions that enable a shift in pathway before those actions become ineffective. Modifications to the methods highlighted the importance of using several plausible scenarios for stress-testing options; considering costs and consent-ability early, to avoid the perception that hard protection will last; which criteria are appropriate for communities to assess; and making many pathways visible for future decision makers. We learned about the difficulties shifting thinking from short-term protection actions to longer-term anticipatory strategies. We found that a pathways system will require ongoing political leadership and governance with monitoring systems that can manage the adaptive process over long timeframes, by governments and their constituent communities.