van Royen FSA, van Smeden M, van Doorn S, Rutten FH, Geersing GJ. Predictive factors of clot propagation in patients with superficial venous thrombosis towards deep venous thrombosis and pulmonary embolism: a systematic review and meta-analysis.
BMJ Open 2024;
14:e074818. [PMID:
38626964 PMCID:
PMC11029256 DOI:
10.1136/bmjopen-2023-074818]
[Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [MESH Headings] [Grants] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Submit a Manuscript] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 04/18/2023] [Accepted: 04/02/2024] [Indexed: 04/19/2024] Open
Abstract
OBJECTIVE
A subset of patients with superficial venous thrombosis (SVT) experiences clot propagation towards deep venous thrombosis (DVT) and/or pulmonary embolism (PE). The aim of this systematic review is to identify all clinically relevant cross-sectional and prognostic factors for predicting thrombotic complications in patients with SVT.
DESIGN
Systematic review.
DATA SOURCES
PubMed/MEDLINE and Embase were systematically searched until 3 March 2023.
ELIGIBILITY CRITERIA
Original research studies with patients with SVT, DVT and/or PE as the outcome and presenting cross-sectional or prognostic predictive factors.
DATA EXTRACTION AND SYNTHESIS OF RESULTS
The CHecklist for critical Appraisal and data extraction for systematic Reviews of prediction Modelling (CHARMS) checklist for prognostic factor studies was used for systematic extraction of study characteristics. Per identified predictive factor, relevant estimates of univariable and multivariable predictor-outcome associations were extracted, such as ORs and HRs. Estimates of association for the most frequently reported predictors were summarised in forest plots, and meta-analyses with heterogeneity were presented. The Quality in Prognosis Studies (QUIPS) tool was used for risk of bias assessment and Grading of Recommendations, Assessment, Development and Evaluations (GRADE) for assessing the certainty of evidence.
RESULTS
Twenty-two studies were included (n=10 111 patients). The most reported predictive factors were high age, male sex, history of venous thromboembolism (VTE), absence of varicose veins and cancer. Pooled effect estimates were heterogenous and ranged from OR 3.12 (95% CI 1.75 to 5.59) for the cross-sectional predictor cancer to OR 0.92 (95% CI 0.56 to 1.53) for the prognostic predictor high age. The level of evidence was rated very low to low. Most studies were scored high or moderate risk of bias.
CONCLUSIONS
Although the pooled estimates of the predictors high age, male sex, history of VTE, cancer and absence of varicose veins showed predictive potential in isolation, variability in study designs, lack of multivariable adjustment and high risk of bias prevent firm conclusions. High-quality, multivariable studies are necessary to be able to identify individual SVT risk profiles.
PROSPERO REGISTRATION NUMBER
CRD42021262819.
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