Risk prediction of recurrent venous thromboembolism: a multiple genetic risk model

Genomic science of risk prediction for venous thromboembolic disease: convenient clarification or compounding complexity

Venous thromboembolism (VTE) refers to abnormal blood clots in veins occurring in 1 to 2 per 1000 individuals every year. While anticoagulant treatment can prevent VTE, it increases the risk of bleeding. This emphasizes the importance of identifying individuals with a high risk of VTE and providing prophylactic interventions to these individuals to reduce both VTE and bleeding risks. Current risk assessment of VTE is based on the combination of mainly clinical risk factors. With the identification of an increasing number of genetic variants associated with the risk of VTE, the addition of genetic findings to clinical prediction models can improve risk prediction for VTE. Especially for individuals in high-risk situations, the added value of genetic findings to clinical prediction models may have benefits such as better prophylaxis of VTE and the reduced side effects of bleeding from unnecessary treatment. Nevertheless, the question of whether these models will eventually have clinical utility remains to be proven. Here, we review the current state of knowledge on genetic risk factors for VTE, explore genetic prediction models for VTE, and discuss their clinical implications and challenges.

A combination of strongly associated prothrombotic single nucleotide polymorphisms could efficiently predict venous thrombosis risk

Background

Venous thrombosis (VT) is multifactorial trait that contributes to the global burden of cardiovascular diseases. Although abundant single nucleotide polymorphisms (SNPs) provoke the susceptibility of an individual to VT, research has found that the five most strongly associated SNPs, namely, rs6025 (F5 Leiden), rs2066865 (FGG), rs2036914 (F11), rs8176719 (ABO), and rs1799963 (F2), play the greatest role. Association and risk prediction models are rarely established by using merely the five strongly associated SNPs. This study aims to explore the combined VT risk predictability of the five SNPs and well-known non-genetic VT risk factors such as aging and obesity in the Hungarian population.

Methods

SNPs were genotyped in the VT group (n = 298) and control group (n = 400). Associations were established using standard genetic models. Genetic risk scores (GRS) [unweighted GRS (unGRS), weighted GRS (wGRS)] were also computed. Correspondingly, the areas under the receiver operating characteristic curves (AUCs) for genetic and non-genetic risk factors were estimated to explore their VT risk predictability in the study population.

Results

rs6025 was the most prevalent VT risk allele in the Hungarian population. Its risk allele frequency was 3.52-fold higher in the VT group than that in the control group [adjusted odds ratio (AOR) = 3.52, 95% CI: 2.50-4.95]. Using all genetic models, we found that rs6025 and rs2036914 remained significantly associated with VT risk after multiple correction testing was performed. However, rs8176719 remained statistically significant only in the multiplicative (AOR = 1.33, 95% CI: 1.07-1.64) and genotypic models (AOR = 1.77, 95% CI: 1.14-2.73). In addition, rs2066865 lost its significant association with VT risk after multiple correction testing was performed. Conversely, the prothrombin mutation (rs1799963) did not show any significant association. The AUC of Leiden mutation (rs6025) showed better discriminative accuracy than that of other SNPs (AUC = 0.62, 95% CI: 0.57-0.66). The wGRS was a better predictor for VT than the unGRS (AUC = 0.67 vs. 0.65). Furthermore, combining genetic and non-genetic VT risk factors significantly increased the AUC to 0.89 with statistically significant differences (Z = 3.924, p < 0.0001).

Conclusions

Our study revealed that the five strongly associated SNPs combined with non-genetic factors could efficiently predict individual VT risk susceptibility. The combined model was the best predictor of VT risk, so stratifying high-risk individuals based on their genetic profiling and well-known non-modifiable VT risk factors was important for the effective and efficient utilization of VT risk preventive and control measures. Furthermore, we urged further study that compares the VT risk predictability in the Hungarian population using the formerly discovered VT SNPs with the novel strongly associated VT SNPs.

Association of ABO blood groups with venous thrombosis recurrence in middle-aged patients: insights from a weighted Cox analysis dedicated to ambispective design

BACKGROUND

In studies of time-to-events, it is common to collect information about events that occurred before the inclusion in a prospective cohort. When the studied risk factors are independent of time, including both pre- and post-inclusion events in the analyses, generally referred to as relying on an ambispective design, increases the statistical power but may lead to a selection bias. In the field of venous thromboembolism (VT), ABO blood groups have been the subject of extensive research due to their substantial effect on VT risk. However, few studies have investigated their effect on the risk of VT recurrence. Motivated by the study of the association of genetically determined ABO blood groups with VT recurrence, we propose a methodology to include pre-inclusion events in the analysis of ambispective studies while avoiding the selection bias due to mortality.

METHODS

This work relies on two independent cohorts of VT patients, the French MARTHA study built on an ambispective design and the Dutch MEGA study built on a standard prospective design. For the analysis of the MARTHA study, a weighted Cox model was developed where weights were defined by the inverse of the survival probability at the time of data collection about the events. Thanks to the collection of information on the vital status of patients, we could estimate the survival probabilities using a delayed-entry Cox model on the death risk. Finally, results obtained in both studies were then meta-analysed.

RESULTS

In the combined sample totalling 2,752 patients including 993 recurrences, the A1 blood group has an increased risk (Hazard Ratio (HR) of 1.18, p = 4.2 × 10^-3) compared with the O1 group, homogeneously in MARTHA and in MEGA. The same trend (HR = 1.19, p = 0.06) was observed for the less frequent A2 group.

CONCLUSION

The proposed methodology increases the power of studies relying on an ambispective design which is frequent in epidemiologic studies about recurrent events. This approach allowed to clarify the association of ABO blood groups with the risk of VT recurrence. Besides, this methodology has an immediate field of application in the context of genome wide association studies.

Derivation and External Validation of a Risk Assessment Model of Venous Thromboembolism in Hospitalized Chinese Patients

AIM

To develop and validate a risk assessment model (RAM) of venous thromboembolism (VTE) in hospitalized Chinese patients.

METHODS

We reviewed data from 300 patients with VTE and 300 non-VTE patients at Beijing Shijitan Hospital. The risk factors related to VTE were analyzed, and the VTE RAM (Shijitan (SJT) version) was developed according to the weight of each risk factor. A total of 407 patients with VTE and 533 non-VTE patients were enrolled for external validation. The sensitivity, specificity, Youden index, receiver operating curve (ROC), and area under the ROC curve (AUC) were used to evaluate the performance of VTE RAM (SJT version) compared with Caprini RAM and Padua RAM.

RESULTS

The VTE RAM (SJT version) contained six risk factors (age >60 years, lower limb edema, chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (COPD), central venous catheterization (CVC), VTE history, and D dimer). In the external validation group, for medical patients, the AUC value of SJT RAM (0.82 ± 0.03) is significantly higher than Caprini RAM (0.76 ± 0.04; P < 0.05), SJT RAM has a higher sensitivity, specificity, and Youden index than Caprini RAM (P < 0.05), which means that the SJT RAM has a much better predictive value than Caprini RAM. While SJT RAM and Padua RAM have the similar predictive value for medical patients (P > 0.05). For surgical patients, the AUC value of SJT RAM (0.72 ± 0.04) is significantly higher than the value of Padua RAM (0.66 ± 0.04; P < 0.05), SJT RAM has a higher sensitivity, specificity, and Youden index than Padua RAM (P < 0.05), which shows that the VTE RAM has better predictive value than Padua RAM. While SJT RAM and Caprini RAM have the similar predictive value for surgical patients (P > 0.05).

CONCLUSION

The SJT RAM derived from general hospitalized Chinese patients will be time-saving for physicians and has a better predictive ability for patients at risk of VTE.

Genetic Predisposition of Both Waist Circumference and Hip Circumference Increased the Risk of Venous Thromboembolism

BACKGROUND

 Obesity, especially abdominal obesity, is an independent indicator of increased cardiovascular risk. Observational studies have shown an observational association between obesity and venous thromboembolism (VTE). As a type of VTE, pulmonary embolism (PE) is also associated with obesity. However, it is unclear whether the observed associations are causal or caused by confounding bias or reverse causality.

METHODS

 We performed a two-sample test by obtaining the exposure dataset of waist circumference (WC) and hip circumference (HC) from the Neale Laboratory Consortium's genome-wide association study summary data and the summary-level outcome data of VTE and PE from FinnGen Biobank of European ancestry to determine the causal effect of WC and HC on VTE and PE.

RESULTS

 All three Mendelian randomization methods displayed a positive association between WC/HC and VTE/PE. WC and HC were positively associated with VTE (odds ratio [OR] = 1.803 per 1 standard deviation [SD] increase in WC, 95% confidence interval [CI] = 1.393-2.333; p < 0.001; OR = 1.479 per 1 SD increase in HC, 95% CI = 1.219-1.796; p < 0.001, respectively). Furthermore, we found a causal association between genetically predicted WC/HC and a higher risk of PE (OR = 1.929 per 1 SD increase in WC, 95% CI = 1.339-2.778, p < 0.001; OR = 1.431 per 1 SD increase in HC, 95% CI =1.095-1.869; p = 0.009, respectively).

CONCLUSION

 There is a significant causal relationship between WC/HC and VTE/PE, which is consistent with observational studies. Taking measures to reduce WC/HC of obesity may help reduce the incidence of VTE/PE.

Microsurgical Breast Reconstruction in Patients with Disorders of Hemostasis: Perioperative Risks and Management

BACKGROUND

Surgical and technological advances have resulted in the widespread adoption of microsurgical breast reconstruction. Many comorbidities that potentially might impair vasculature and wound healing are no longer considered contraindications for these procedures. However, some uncertainty still prevails regarding the perioperative management of patients with disorders of hemostasis.

METHODS

The authors combined a literature review with a retrospective chart review of patients with disorders of hemostasis who had undergone microsurgical breast reconstruction at the senior author's (J.F.) center between 2015 to 2020. Several disorders associated with thrombotic and/or hemorrhagic complications were identified, and a standardized risk assessment and management strategy was developed in cooperation with a hematologist.

RESULTS

Overall, 10 studies were identified comprising 29 patients who had a defined disorder of hemostasis and underwent microsurgical breast reconstruction. Seventeen microsurgical breast reconstructions were performed on 11 patients at the senior author's (J.F.) center. High factor VIII levels, heterozygous factor V Leiden, and heterozygous prothrombin mutation G20210A were the most common genetic or mixed genetic/acquired thrombophilic conditions. As expected, hereditary antithrombin, protein C, or protein S deficiencies were rare. Among hemorrhagic disorders, thrombocytopenia, platelet dysfunction, and von Willebrand disease or low von Willebrand factor levels were those factors most frequently associated with increased perioperative bleeding.

CONCLUSIONS

Patients should be screened for elevated risk of thrombosis or bleeding before undergoing microsurgical breast reconstruction, and positive screening should prompt a complete hematologic evaluation. Interdisciplinary management of these disorders with a hematologist is essential to minimize risks and to obtain optimal reconstructive results.

CLINICAL QUESTION/LEVEL OF EVIDENCE

Risk, IV.

[Relationship Between ABO Blood Group and Pregnancy Complications]

ABO blood group system is the most commonly used blood group classification system in clinic practice. The relevant antigens, A, B and H determinants, are complex carbohydrate molecules that are expressed in red blood cells and other cell lines and tissues. These antigens are determined by the ABO locus located on chromosome 9 (9q34.1-q34.2). ABO blood group is associated with the development of many human diseases, e.g., cardiovascular diseases, infectious diseases, and tumors. The relationship between the ABO blood group of pregnant women and various pregnancy complications, including preeclampsia (PE) and the related diseases, pregnancy associated venous thromboembolism (PA-VTE), gestational diabetes mellitus (GDM), and postpartum hemorrhage (PPH), have become the focus of obstetricians' recent research interest. Herein, we reviewed the relationship between ABO blood group and these pregnancy complications, and found that most of the reported findings supported the following views: 1) Blood type O is a protective factor for PE, while blood type AB increases the risk of PE; 2) blood types other than O are more prone to PA-VTE than blood type O; 3) blood type O or blood type AB may be related to the pathogenesis of GDM; 4) women of blood type O are at higher risks for PPH than those of other blood types. More in-depth epidemiological and genetic studies are needed to confirm these findings in the future. These findings can provide new ideas for researching into the pathogenesis of obstetric diseases and form the theoretical basis for obstetricians to prevent and treat related diseases.

Current Knowledge on Factor V Leiden Mutation as a Risk Factor for Recurrent Venous Thromboembolism: A Systematic Review and Meta-Analysis

Background

Thrombophilia screening is widely done in clinical practice, and it is claimed that the extent of venous thromboembolism (VTE) recurrence risk in patients with common defects is still not fully understood.

Aim

We aimed to summarize data of all observational studies prospectively assessing the association of heterozygous factor V Leiden (FVL) mutation and recurrent VTE in patients with VTE, and to calculate pooled relative risks (RR), overall and in various subgroups.

Methods

We searched MEDLINE and EMBASE databases for cohort studies prospectively assessing VTE recurrence in patients with and without FVL mutation (PROSPERO: CRD42021182800). Data were extracted on cohort and study-level. The methodological quality was assessed using the Newcastle-Ottawa Scale (NOS). RR were calculated overall and in subgroups using a random-effects model.

Results

From 31 cohorts, 24 studies were finally included summarizing 13,571 patients. Heterozygous FVL mutation was identified in 2,840 individuals (21%). The methodological quality was estimated to be high in 20 studies (83%). The overall RR was 1.46 (95% CI: 1.31, 1.64), consistent across subgroups.

Conclusions

Pooling all high-quality epidemiological data, the risk of recurrent VTE was increased by 46% in patients with heterozygous FVL mutation. Against the background of established risk factors, the FVL mutation plays only a marginal role in the risk assessment for recurrent VTE.

Multiple Single Nucleotide Polymorphism Testing Improves the Prediction of Diabetic Retinopathy Risk with Type 2 Diabetes Mellitus

Diabetic retinopathy (DR) is one of the most frequent causes of irreversible blindness, thus prevention and early detection of DR is crucial. The purpose of this study is to identify genetic determinants of DR in individuals with type 2 diabetic mellitus (T2DM). A total of 551 T2DM patients (254 with DR, 297 without DR) were included in this cross-sectional research. Thirteen T2DM-related single nucleotide polymorphisms (SNPs) were utilized for constructing genetic risk prediction model. With logistic regression analysis, genetic variations of the FTO (rs8050136) and PSMD6 (rs831571) polymorphisms were independently associated with a higher risk of DR. The area under the curve (AUC) calculated on known nongenetic risk variables was 0.704. Based on the five SNPs with the highest odds ratio (OR), the combined nongenetic and genetic prediction model improved the AUC to 0.722. The discriminative accuracy of our 5-SNP combined risk prediction model increased in patients who had more severe microalbuminuria (AUC = 0.731) or poor glycemic control (AUC = 0.746). In conclusion, we found a novel association for increased risk of DR at two T2DM-associated genetic loci, FTO (rs8050136) and PSMD6 (rs831571). Our predictive risk model presents new insights in DR development, which may assist in enabling timely intervention in reducing blindness in diabetic patients.

Genetic Risk Profiling Associated with Recurrent Unprovoked Venous Thromboembolism

INTRODUCTION

Venous thromboembolism (VTE), including deep vein thrombosis (DVT) and/or pulmonary embolism (PE), is a common, acute, multifactorial disease with a five-years cumulative incidence of recurrence of approximately 25%. Actually, no single genetic defect can predict the risk of recurrence of VTE. Therefore, individual genetic risk profiling could be useful for the prediction of VTE recurrence.

AIM OF THE STUDY

To assess the combined effect of the common prothrombotic genotypes on the risk of recurrence of VTE in recently diagnosed unprovoked VTE patients.

PATIENTS AND METHODS

This population based, prospective follow-up study was carried out from January 2015 to December 2020 in (internal medicine, cardiovascular medicine and anesthesia and ICU departments, Tanta University Hospital, Egypt) on 224 recently diagnosed unprovoked VTE patients. Whole blood was collected by standard venipuncture at the time of admission prior to the beginning of anticoagulant therapy. Genomic DNA was extracted and was genotyped for the 5-SNPs Genetic risk score (GRS), previously validated for first venous thrombosis (FVL rs6025, PTM rs1799963, ABO rs8176719, FGG rs2066865 and FXI rs2036914).

RESULTS

The main important finding in the present study was that patients having ≥3 risk alleles were associated with higher risk of VTE recurrence compared to those having ≤2 risk alleles (the reference group) (HR 2.5, 95% CI 1.48-4.21) (p = 0.001). Patients with GRS ≥ 3 had a significantly shorter time recurrence free survival (43.07 months) compared to the low risk group of patients with GRS (0-2) (p < 0.001).

CONCLUSION

GRS model could be an effective and useful model in risk stratification of VTE patients, and genetic risk profiling of VTE patients could be used for the prediction of recurrence of VTE.

Combined effects of five prothrombotic genotypes and cancer on the risk of a first venous thromboembolic event

BACKGROUND

The role of combined prothrombotic genotypes in cancer-related venous thromboembolism (VTE) is scarcely studied. We aimed to investigate the impact of a 5-single nucleotide polymorphism (SNP) score on the risk of VTE in patients with and without cancer using a population-based case-cohort.

METHODS

Cases with a first VTE (n = 1493) and a subcohort (n = 13 072) were derived from the Tromsø Study (1994-2012) and the Nord-Trøndelag Health Study (1995-2008). Five SNPs previously reported as a risk score were genotyped: ABO (rs8176719), F5 (rs6025), F2 (rs1799963), FGG (rs2066865), and F11 (rs2036914). Hazard ratios (HRs) for VTE were estimated according to cancer status and the number of risk alleles in the 5-SNP score (0-1, 2-3, and ≥4 alleles).

RESULTS

During a median follow-up of 12.3 years, 1496 individuals were diagnosed with cancer, of whom 232 experienced VTE. The VTE risk increased with the number of risk alleles in the 5-SNP score among subjects without and with cancer. In cancer-free subjects, the HR was 2.17 (95% confidence interval [CI] 1.79-2.62) for ≥4 versus 0-1 risk alleles. In cancer patients, the corresponding HR was 1.93 (95% CI 1.28-2.91). The combination of cancer and ≥4 risk alleles yielded a 17-fold (HR 17.1, 95% CI 12.5-23.4) higher risk of VTE compared with cancer-free subjects with 0-1 risk alleles.

CONCLUSION

The risk of VTE increases with the number of prothrombotic risk alleles in subjects with and without cancer, and the combination of prothrombotic risk alleles and cancer leads to a highly elevated risk of VTE.

Advances in the Diagnosis of Venous Thromboembolism: A Literature Review

The incidence of venous thromboembolism (VTE), including lower extremity deep vein thrombosis (DVT) and pulmonary embolism (PE) is increasing. The increase in suspicion for VTE has lowered the threshold for performing imaging studies to confirm diagnosis of VTE. However, only 20% of suspected cases have a confirmed diagnosis of VTE. Development of pulmonary embolism rule-out criteria (PERC) and update in pre-test probability have changed the paradigm of ruling-out patient with low index of suspicion. The D-dimer test in conjunction to the pre-test probability has been utilized in VTE diagnosis. The age appropriate D-dimer cutoff and inclusion of YEARS algorithm (signs of the DVT, hemoptysis and whether PE is the likely diagnosis) for the D-dimer cutoff have been recent updates in the evaluation of suspected PE. Multi-detector computed tomography pulmonary angiography (CTPA) and compression ultrasound (CUS) are the preferred imaging modality to diagnose PE and DVT respectively. The VTE diagnostic algorithm do differ in pregnant individuals. The prerequisite of avoiding excessive radiation has recruited planar ventilation-perfusion (V/Q) scan as preferred in pregnant patients to evaluate for PE. The modification of CUS protocol with addition of the Valsalva maneuver should be performed while evaluating DVT in pregnant individual.

Identifying mutation-driven changes in gene functionality that lead to venous thromboembolism

Venous thromboembolism (VTE) is a common hematological disorder. VTE affects millions of people around the world each year and can be fatal. Earlier studies have revealed the possible VTE genetic risk factors in Europeans. The 2018 Critical Assessment of Genome Interpretation (CAGI) challenge had asked participants to distinguish between 66 VTE and 37 non-VTE African American (AA) individuals based on their exome sequencing data. We used variants from AA VTE association studies and VTE genes from DisGeNET database to evaluate VTE risk via four different approaches; two of these methods were most successful at the task. Our best performing method represented each exome as a vector of predicted functional effect scores of variants within the known genes. These exome vectors were then clustered with k-means. This approach achieved 70.8% precision and 69.7% recall in identifying VTE patients. Our second-best ranked method had collapsed the variant effect scores into gene-level function changes, using the same vector clustering approach for patient/control identification. These results show predictability of VTE risk in AA population and highlight the importance of variant-driven gene functional changes in judging disease status. Of course, more in-depth understanding of AA VTE pathogenicity is still needed for more precise predictions.

Genetic variants associated with patent ductus arteriosus in extremely preterm infants

OBJECTIVE

Patent ductus arteriosus (PDA) is a commonly observed condition in preterm infants. Prior studies have suggested a role for genetics in determining spontaneous ductal closure. Using samples from a large neonatal cohort we tested the hypothesis that common genetic variations are associated with PDA in extremely preterm infants.

STUDY DESIGN

Preterm infants (n = 1013) enrolled at NICHD Neonatal Research Network sites were phenotyped for PDA. DNA was genotyped for 1634 single nucleotide polymorphisms (SNPs) from candidate genes. Analyses were adjusted for ancestral eigenvalues and significant epidemiologic variables.

RESULTS

SNPs in several genes were associated with the clinical diagnosis of PDA and with surgical ligation in extremely preterm neonates diagnosed with PDA (p < 0.01). None of the associations were significant after correction for multiple comparisons.

CONCLUSION

We identified several common genetic variants associated with PDA. These findings may inform further studies on genetic risk factors for PDA in preterm infants.