Environmental Kuznets curve in Southeastern Europe: the role of urbanization and energy consumption

Assessing the impacts of crop production on climate change: An in-depth analysis of long-term determinants and policy implications

This research investigates the long-term determinants of carbon emissions in three diverse regions-Europe and Central Asia (ECA), Sub-Saharan Africa (SSA), and the Middle East and North Africa (MENA)-spanning 1990 to 2020. Utilizing advanced econometric models and analyses, including the Regularized Common Correlated Effects Estimator (rCCE), Common Correlated Effects Estimator (CCE), and Mean-Group (MG) approach, the study explores the intricate relationships between carbon emissions, crop production, emissions per agricultural production, energy consumption, renewable energy consumption, per capita GDP, and population. Region-specific nuances are uncovered, highlighting the varying dynamics: ECA exhibits intricate and non-significant relationships, SSA showcases significant effects of population dynamics and green technology adoption, and the MENA region reveals a nuanced interplay between emissions per agricultural production.The findings underscore the universal efficacy of green technology adoption for mitigation. Strategies for mitigating carbon emissions in the agricultural sector require diversified energy transition approaches, emphasizing efficiency enhancements, green technology adoption, and tailored population management strategies based on regional intricacies. Counterfactual simulations indicate the potential efficacy of strategic measures targeting crop production to reduce carbon emissions, while acknowledging the nuanced relationship between economic growth and emissions. Policymakers are urged to recognize the persistence in emission patterns, emphasizing the importance of targeted interventions to transition towards more sustainable trajectories. Overall, the research provides essential insights for crafting effective policies at both regional and global scales to address the complexities of climate change mitigation in the agricultural sector.

Dynamic nonlinear CO2 emission effects of urbanization routes in the eight most populous countries

A dynamic STIRPAT model used in the current study is based on panel data from the eight most populous countries from 1975 to 2020, revealing the nonlinear effects of urbanization routes (percentage of total urbanization, percentage of small cities and percentage of large cities) on carbon dioxide (CO2) emissions. Using "Dynamic Display Unrelated Regression (DSUR)" and "Fully Modified Ordinary Least Squares (FMOLS)" regressions, the outcomes reflect that percentage of total urbanization and percentage of small cities have an incremental influence on carbon dioxide emissions. However, square percentage of small cities and square percentage of total urbanization have significant adverse effects on carbon dioxide (CO2) emissions. The positive relationship between the percentage of small cities, percentage of total urbanization and CO2 emissions and the negative relationship between the square percentage of small cities, square percentage of total urbanization and CO2 emissions legitimize the inverted U-shaped EKC hypothesis. The impact of the percentage of large cities on carbon dioxide emissions is significantly negative, while the impact of the square percentage of large cities on carbon dioxide emissions is significantly positive, validating a U-shaped EKC hypothesis. The incremental effect of percentage of small cities and percentage of total urbanization on long-term environmental degradation can provide support for ecological modernization theory. Energy intensity, Gross Domestic Product (GDP), industrial growth and transport infrastructure stimulate long-term CO2 emissions. Country-level findings from the AMG estimator support a U-shaped link between the percentage of small cities and CO2 emissions for each country in the entire panel except the United States. In addition, the Dumitrescu and Hulin causality tests yield a two-way causality between emission of carbon dioxide and squared percentage of total urbanization, between the percentage of the large cities and emission of carbon dioxide, and between energy intensity and emission of carbon dioxide. This study proposes renewable energy options and green city-friendly technologies to improve the environmental quality of urban areas.

The nexus between government spending, economic growth, and tourism under climate change: testing the CEM model for the USA

This study examines the impact of government spending, income, and tourism consumption on CO2 emissions in the 50 US states through a novel theoretical model derived from the Armey Curve model and the Environmental Kuznets Curve hypothesis. The findings of this research are essential for policymakers to develop effective strategies for mitigating environmental pollution. Utilizing panel cointegration analysis, the study provides valuable insights into whether continued increases in government spending contribute to higher pollution levels. By identifying the threshold point of spending as a percentage of GDP, policymakers can make informed decisions to avoid the trade-off between increased spending and environmental degradation. For instance, the analysis reveals that Hawaii's tipping point is 16.40%. The empirical results underscore the importance of adopting sustainable policies that foster economic growth while minimizing environmental harm. These findings will aid policymakers in formulating targeted and efficient approaches to tackle climate change and promote long-term environmental sustainability in the United States. Moreover, the impact of tourism development on CO2 emissions varies across states, with some US states experiencing a decrease while others see an increase.

An approach to the pollution haven and pollution halo hypotheses in Asian countries

Present climate change consists of global warming that is caused by the emission of greenhouse gases, generally carbon dioxide. The study examines the pollution haven, pollution halo, and environmental Kuznets curve for a number of Asian countries during the period of 1985 to 2020. Outcomes suggest that urbanization, gross domestic product per capita, energy consumption, and foreign direct investment inflow have positive effects, while gross domestic product square, foreign direct investment square, and tourism have negative effects on emissions of carbon dioxide. Furthermore, findings support the validity of the environmental Kuznets curve, pollution haven, and pollution halo hypothesis for the selected Asian countries. We also find robust results of rationality of the environmental Kuznets curve hypothesis for Pakistan, Bangladesh, India, China, Indonesia, Korea, Japan, Malaysia, Vietnam, and Singapore; of pollution haven hypothesis for Bangladesh, China, Indonesia, Japan, Pakistan, and Singapore; and of pollution halo hypothesis for Bangladesh, China, Indonesia, Japan, Pakistan, and Singapore.

A novel EKC perspective: do agricultural production, energy transition, and urban agglomeration achieve ecological sustainability?

We aim to analyze the existence of a novel agricultural production-augmented environmental Kuznets curve (EKC-AP) theory for energy transition, urban agglomeration, and financial depth. To conduct this research, we use a global panel of selected 54 countries belonging to low, medium, and high levels of economic development from 1971 to 2017. Since our data are distributed into three development levels, it is highly likely to face cross-sectional dependence across the countries within and between the development levels, which may provide biased empirical results. To outpace such possibility, we employ advanced econometric strategies, which are robust to cross-sectional dependence and slope heterogeneity issues. We found that agricultural production, energy transition, urban agglomeration, financial depth, and ecological degradation experience a long-term cointegrating equilibrium association. We also confirm that exists an EKC-AP linkage of agricultural production with ecological degradation in highly developed economies, while those at the low and medium levels of development reveal a positive exponential and monotonic impact, respectively, of agricultural production on ecological degradation. The energy transition is found to promote ecological sustainability in developed countries through technique impact, while it deteriorates the ecological quality in countries at the medium development level. Moreover, urban agglomeration adversely impacts the ecological quality in the economies at low and medium development levels, whereas it improves the ecological sustainability in developed economies. Besides, financial depth proves harmful to ecological sustainability, with less subtle effects in developed economies. Based on our findings, for countries at low and medium levels of development, we propose advancing farming techniques using ecologically friendly technologies, promoting green energy transition, expanding the share of the services sector, and providing green financial systems to support green investment projects to achieve the Sustainable Development agenda of the United Nations.

Towards sustainable environment: why green energy technology diffusion is sluggish in South Africa?

Energy security, job development, and minimal environmental damage are just a few of the reasons why green energy technologies have gained popularity. Still, developing these technologies in underdeveloped countries is sluggish due to several bottlenecks. To find and prioritize the bottlenecks to development of green energy technologies (GETs), this study has used the case of South Africa. In this study, technical, financial, social, regulatory, geographical, and institutional bottlenecks are six headings under which 22 bottlenecks are further subdivided. For prioritizing these bottlenecks, a Multi-Objective Optimization based on Ratio Analysis (MOORA) strategy combined with an Evaluation based on Distance from Average Solution (EDAS) method was used. The top three bottlenecks impacting the GETs' development involved social, institutional, and regulatory, whereas in sub-headings, corrupt political systems, knowledge of the public, and fixed investments were revealed to be the most significant hurdles. In addition to that, a framework is also developed for assessing how each bottleneck hinders the development of green energy technologies. The results of this study recommend that formulation of policy using the bottom-up approach is important. Notably, politicians at the highest levels should work together to bolster government agencies so that they can monitor and carry out the policies designed to advance GETs. Building the institutional capacity of government offices is crucial for eliminating corruption in political offices and progressing GETs in South Africa.

Technology innovations impact on carbon emission in Chinese cities: exploring the mediating role of economic growth and industrial structure transformation

China seems ambitious to achieve a "carbon emissions peak" before 2030 and "carbon neutrality" before 2060. To deal with this emissions mitigation plan, technology innovations are regarded as a crucial factor. However, considering its rebound effect (CO₂ emissions driving effect) through economic growth, technology innovations might not prove a promising contributor to CO₂ reduction. Therefore, there is a need to investigate further the nexus between technology innovations and CO₂ emissions for conclusive debate. Based on the data of 215 cities in China, this paper uses mediating effects model to investigate the direct and indirect impacts (through economic growth and industrial structure transformation) of technology innovations on CO₂ emissions from a microeconomic perspective. The main results suggest that technology innovations generally increase CO₂ emissions in China both directly and indirectly. The impact of technology innovations and economic growth on CO₂ emissions indicated the EKC characteristics. Furthermore, the contributions of technology innovations to CO₂ emissions are distinguished in different regions. Thus, there is an urgent need for China to promote innovations in "clean technology" and to transform industrial structure to the tertiary industry to achieve the targets of carbon neutrality and emissions peaking.

Relating fiscal decentralization and financial inclusion to environmental sustainability: Criticality of natural resources

This study deals with a novel perspective on how natural resource dependence (NRD) and natural resource abundance (NRA) moderate the effects of fiscal decentralization and financial inclusion on energy and carbon intensity. Our work develops on the Stochastic Impacts by Regression on Population, Affluence, and Technology framework, considering the selected seven Organization for Economic Co-operation and Development members as the investigative laboratory from 1995 through 2018. Employing a panel Method of Moments Quantile Regression with fixed effects, we find that fiscal decentralization is beneficial for environmental sustainability, especially across the countries with a higher level of energy and carbon intensity; however, enhanced financial inclusivity is detrimental to the environmental quality, with more visible effects in more energy-efficient economies. As per the direct effects, NRD and NRA mitigate energy and carbon efficiency, with more substantial contributions in less energy- and carbon-intensive countries. Concerning the indirect effects, NRD and NRA positively moderate the influence of fiscal decentralization and financial inclusion on energy and carbon intensities, displaying more substantial effects in more energy-efficient economies. Among other control variables, environmental innovation, renewable electricity, employment to population ratio, and economic progress enhance environmental sustainability. We suggest fiscal decentralization should be built on a more transparent and accountable subnational governmental setup to prevent rent-seeking and fragile environmental protection. We also recommend inclusive finance should enhance the access to and affordability of financial services to economic agents for green consumption and investment ventures to achieve environmental sustainability, among other Sustainable Development Goals.

Exploring the nature of EKC hypothesis in Asia's top emitters: role of human capital, renewable and non-renewable energy consumption

The present study uses both carbon dioxide emission and ecological footprints as proxies for environmental degradation to examine the environmental Kuznets curve hypothesis for the top three emitters from Asia, i.e., China, India, and Japan. To this end, the autoregressive distributed lag model for time series and panel estimation is used for a period spanning over 1980-2016. For carbon dioxide emission, China presents an inverted-U shape of the environmental Kuznets curve, while a U-shape relationship is found for India and Japan. Similarly, when the hypothesis is tested with the ecological footprint, Japan offers an inverted U-shape and U-shaped association is detected for China and India. The panel analysis indicates the existence of the environmental Kuznets curve with both proxies of environmental degradation. Besides, human capital and renewable energy promote environmental sustainability, while non-renewable energy use hinders environmental quality. The findings of this study suggest that in order to meet the combined goals of economic growth and environmental protection, the three economies, i.e., China, India, and Japan, should employ renewable energy-enabled technology.

An empirical assessment of electricity consumption and environmental degradation in the presence of economic complexities

To a large extent, the theories and concepts behind the effect of ecological footprint have been the paramount concern of the recent literature. Since the rising and falling of environmental degradation have been a continuous issue since the first phase of development, determinants such as economic complexity may play a critical role in achieving long-term sustainable development in the framework of environmental Kuznets curve (EKC) paradigm. Therefore, this research expands on the notion of an EKC paradigm for the world's top ten most complex economies by considering four variables, such as real GDP per capita, electricity consumption, trade openness, and a new putative factor of environmental obstacle, the economic complexity index (ECI). This is one of the first studies to look at the impact of ECI on the ecological footprint of a specific sample from 1998 to 2017. The findings demonstrate a continuous inverted U-shaped link between real GDP per capita, the square of real GDP per capita, and ecological footprint. The EKC hypothesis is found to be valid in the long term in the examined complex economies. The findings of the panel autoregressive distributed lag (ARDL) of the pooled mean group (PMG) and fully modified ordinary least squares (FMOLS) estimations demonstrate that in the long term, electric power usage contributed to the carbon footprints. Furthermore, the economic complexity index and trade openness increase environmental performance over time. To determine if there is causation between the variables, we employ the panel vector error correction model (VECM) framework. Particularly, the results show unidirectional causality running from electric power consumption to ecological footprint and bidirectional causal relationship between (1) economic growth and ecological footprint; (2) square of economic growth and ecological footprint; (3) economic complexity index and ecological footprint; and (4) trade openness and ecological footprint.

Revisiting the EKC hypothesis by assessing the complementarities between fiscal, monetary, and environmental development policies in China

Recently, China has declared its national objective of becoming carbon neutral by 2060. Hence, mitigating carbon dioxide emissions has become an important agenda of the Chinese government. Against this backdrop, this paper aims to evaluate the effectiveness of pursuing expansionary fiscal and monetary policies on China's carbon dioxide emission figures by using annual frequency data from 1980 to 2018. Accordingly, this study considers the levels of government expenditure and broad money supply as fiscal and monetary policy instruments, respectively. Besides accounting for structural break concerns in the data, the findings from the empirical analysis reveal that there are long-run associations between carbon dioxide emissions, economic growth, and fiscal and monetary expansion in China. Moreover, the results also show that in both the short- and long-run expansionary fiscal policy trigger higher carbon dioxide emissions while expansionary monetary policy inhibits the carbon dioxide emission figures of China. Furthermore, the results invalidate the existence of the Environmental Kuznets Curve hypothesis since the relationship between China's economic growth and carbon dioxide emissions is evidenced to portray an N-shape. In line with these findings, it is recommended that China achieve environmentally sustainable economic growth by aligning the national fiscal and monetary policies with the 2060 carbon-neutrality objective.

The anthropogenic consequences of energy consumption in the presence of uncertainties and complexities: evidence from World Bank income clusters

In environmental management, many studies have examined the energy consumption-emission nexus in detail. However, for the first time in the literature, this study considers how the Economic Complexity Index (ECI) and economic policy uncertainty (EPU) moderate the contribution of energy consumption to emissions for the four World Bank Income clusters. The system generalised methods of moments are applied to data for 109 countries from 1996 to 2016. Based on the main model (grouped clusters) estimations, the result revealed the existence of the environmental Kuznets curve (EKC) hypothesis. Also, an increase in air transport and consumption of energy releases more carbon emissions to the climate. Interestingly, ECI decreases carbon emission significantly while EPU does not have a significant impact. Moreover, the study revealed that ECI moderated the impact of other variables on emission, but EPU is not a significant moderator. Furthermore, a comparative analysis among the four incomes suggests that the EKC hypothesis holds only in the high-income clusters; ECI is a significant predictor of carbon emission in the four clusters, but it only decreases the emission in high-income clusters. This corroborates the debate on climate change and the productive capacity of high-income countries. Given the foregoing, several policy measures were recommended.

Combined role of industrialization and urbanization in determining carbon neutrality: empirical story of Pakistan

A rapid process of industrialization, on the one hand, transformed the economies from agrarian to industrial societies to improve the living standards and welfare of people. On the other hand, the urbanized and industrialized economies have posed challenging threats to environmental sustainability. The query at hand is whether the growing environmental emissions are driven by industrialization and urbanization or not. This research aims to empirically examine the combined role of industrialization and urbanization in achieving carbon neutrality in Pakistan by considering foreign direct investment and economic growth as control variables in the model. The core empirical results are the following: firstly, industrialization and economic growth exhibit negative but statistically insignificant impacts on CO₂ emissions, imparting a neutral role in determining the environmental degradation in Pakistan. Secondly, urbanization and foreign direct investment disclose positive and statistically significant (at 1% level of significance) impacts on CO₂ emissions, manifesting an environmental degradation driving impact in the country. Thirdly, given the slope coefficients of urbanization and foreign direct investment (0.058 and 0.035), urbanization proved to be a stronger driver than foreign direct investment. Finally, foreign direct investment is revealed to make the Pakistani economy a "Pollution Haven" for the foreign enterprises in the country. Based on empirical results, none of the variables predicted the support for carbon neutrality in Pakistan.

Reinvestigating the Environmental Kuznets Curve (EKC) hypothesis by a composite model constructed on the Armey curve hypothesis with government spending for the US States

This study reinvestigates the EKC hypothesis for US states with a new methodology that differs from all previous empirical studies using traditional EKC models. To this aim, this methodology, for the first time, unifies two seemingly different but strongly interrelated hypotheses (models), namely the Armey curve (AC) and traditional EKC models, into one single composite model. The rationale for creating this composite model is twofold. First, the functional propositions of these two hypotheses are depicted with inverted U-shaped curves. Second, they also have economically interrelated-causal relationships. This means that rising government spending (through the AC hypothesis) increases real GDP per capita (RGDPPC) and, consequently, increases in RGDPPC (through the EKC hypothesis) increase CO2 emissions. The composite model created may also allow US state policymakers to determine a single maximum spending level that will maximize or minimize CO2 emissions. Empirical findings indicate that the composite model is capable of testing the EKC hypothesis for 7 US states. Additionally, for 7 US states, maximum spending level was calculated to be around 15% of their RGDPPCs. Hence, with this calculated spending level, policymakers of these states may be able to determine-adjust their golden spending levels so as not to cause environmental degradation and declines in GDP.

Fiscal policy and environment: a long-run multivariate empirical analysis of ecological footprint in Pakistan

The ecological footprint attempts to quantify human impact on nature and its resources necessary to satisfy human needs. This research study explores the long-run implications of fiscal policy on the ecological footprint in Pakistan empirically, keeping different socio-economic factors into consideration. Per annum, time series data have been collected between 1976 and 2018, and the ARDL model is applied to investigate this long-run and short-run association. The conclusion of ARDL model shows that a 1% increase in public development expenditures, total population, GDP, and energy consumption increase 0.19, 2.17, 1.16, and 2.17% ecological footprint, respectively, in Pakistan between 1976 and 2018 vice versa. However, it is also derived that a 1% increase in public tax and non-tax revenue and current public expenditures (in health, education, and other social sectors) shrink 0.36 and 0.013% ecological footprint in the long run in Pakistan. For policy implications, these results focus on practical fiscal policy significance to achieve environmental targets in Pakistan, suggesting an increase in public current expenditures in public and social sectors and increasing public revenue by expanding the tax base, which will ultimately reduce ecological footprint in the long run in Pakistan.

Does democracy improve environmental quality of GCC region? Analysis robust to cross-section dependence and slope heterogeneity

Since the developed world's economic prosperity has been heavily reliant on excessive fossil-based energy consumption, it has posed severe environmental quality challenges. This research attempts to revisit the relationship between income and anthropogenic emissions in the context of the environmental Kuznets curve (EKC) theory by considering electric power consumption, urbanization, and democratic accountability index in the Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) region. It employs annual frequency panel data from 1990 through 2019 and three alternative advanced econometric estimation techniques. The main findings are as follows: Firstly, the EKC results for the whole sample strongly support the proposition of an inverse U-shaped connection between anthropogenic emissions and affluence in the long run. Secondly, the country-specific results confirm EKC only in Saudi Arabia and Bahrain, while the remaining countries demonstrate a U-shaped connection. Thirdly, the democratic accountability promoted anthropogenic emissions implying that it failed to contribute to environmental protection. It means that democratic setup in the GCC region performs poorly in accomplishing climate change mitigation and Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs). Fourthly, electric power consumption and urbanization impart positive and negative impacts on anthropogenic emission, respectively. These findings are found robust across the fully modified ordinary least square (FMOLS), bias-corrected LSDV (least squares dummy variable) (LSDV), and pooled mean group (PMG) estimators. Finally, Dumitrescu-Hurlin panel causality shows that (i) income and urbanization establish a two-way causality with the anthropogenic emissions. (ii) However, a unidirectional causal connection is revealed from electric power consumption and democratic accountability index to anthropogenic emissions. The findings suggest that the GCC region should prioritize environmental protection and SDGs across the political aims' recipe since it would direct the region on the path of climate change mitigation.