Influence mechanisms and spatial spillover effects of industrial agglomeration on carbon productivity in China's Yellow River Basin

Spatial spillover effect and driving factors of urban carbon emissions in the Yellow River Basin using nighttime light data

Yellow River Basin (YRB) is a pivotal region for energy consumption and carbon emissions (CEs) in China, with cities emerging as the main sources of regional CEs. This highlights their critical role in achieving regional sustainable development and China's carbon neutrality. Consequently, there is a pressing need for a detailed exploration of the urban spillover effects and an in-depth analysis of the complex determinants influencing CEs within the YRB. Remote sensing data provide optimal conditions for conducting extensive studies across large geographical areas and extended time periods. This study integrates DMSP/OLS and NPP/VIIRS nighttime light datasets for a longitudinal analysis of urban CEs in the YRB. Using a harmonized dataset from DMSP/OLS and NPP/VIIRS nighttime light from 2007 to 2021, this study quantifies CEs of 58 prefecture-level cities in the YRB. By combining ESDA, STIRPAT model and spatial econometric model, this investigation further clarifies empirically the spatial spillover effects and driving factors of urban CEs. The analysis delineates a phase-wise augmentation in urban CEs, converging towards a distinct spatial distribution characterized by "lower reach > middle reach > upper reach". The spatial autocorrelation tests unravel a complex interplay between agglomeration and differentiation patterns within urban CEs, underscored by pronounced spatial lock-in phenomena. Significantly, this study demonstrates that urbanization, economic development, energy consumption structure, green coverage rate, industrial structure, population, technological progress, and FDI each exhibit varied direct and indirect effect on urban CEs. Furthermore, it elaborates on potential policy implications and future research directions, offering crucial insights for formulating CEs mitigation strategies to advance sustainable development.

Spatial spillover effects of manufacturing agglomeration on China's total factor carbon productivity: evidence from the regulatory role of fiscal decentralization

Based on the theory of new economic geography, this paper used panel data from 284 cities in China from 2006 to 2019 to determine the effects of spatial spillover and heterogeneity of manufacturing agglomeration (MA) on urban total factor carbon productivity (TFCP) and the regulatory effect of fiscal decentralization on the outcome. The results showed that (1) MA shifted from the eastern region of China to the central and western regions, with the center of gravity moving towards the south. The spatial pattern of urban TFCP displayed the solidifying characteristics of "low-level agglomeration and high-level dispersion," with technological progress being the primary driver. (2) The MA had a significant U-shaped effect on the TFCP of local and nearby cities, promoting the improvement of urban TFCP through Jacobs' and Porter's externalities but not MAR externalities. (3) Regarding regional differences, MA had a significant U-shaped impact on urban TFCP in the eastern and central regions. At different levels of manufacturing development, there was an inverted U-shaped relationship in both manufacturing and non-manufacturing metropolitan areas. For varying degrees of manufacturing industry agglomeration, increasing the level of MA improved urban TFCP in low agglomeration areas, but inhibited it in high agglomeration areas. (4) The implementation of fiscal decentralization nationwide and in the eastern and central regions significantly weakened the impact of MA on TFCP. Furthermore, fiscal decentralization significantly enhanced the influence of MA on TFCP in cities exhibiting high levels of economic development, advanced industrial structure and strict environmental regulations. Therefore, based on the unique developmental characteristics of the manufacturing industry in various cities, fiscal policies ought to be tailored to local circumstances to support key areas. This strategy should facilitate the high-quality development of manufacturing industry and low-carbon development of cities.

Land use and habitat quality change in the Yellow River Basin: A perspective with different CMIP6-based scenarios and multiple scales

Studying the spatial distribution of land use/land cover (LULC) and habitat quality (HQ), influenced by both climate change and socio-economic factors, holds immense importance for fostering ecological sustainability. The previous scale setting was based on changes in granularity and division of spatial ranges, without considering the differences in land quantity structure and spatial expansion under different spatial ranges. Therefore, this study is based on climate and economic data at different spatial scales to determine the various land demands of provinces (YRB-P) and integration of provinces (YRB-I) in the Yellow River Basin, and to limit the expansion of LULC in corresponding regions. At the same time, we have also established three future scenarios representing different development speeds based on the latest path of shared socio-economic development in CMIP6. We found exhibit significant characteristics in ecological responses under combinations of different scales and scenarios. Shandong and Henan Provinces are the main gathering (38.7-41.7%, 24.1-26.5%) and expansion (68.54-85.99 × 102km2, 18.89-34.12 × 102km2) provinces of built-up land under the YRB-P scale, and their HQ (0.260-0.397) are significantly lower than the average HQ (0.619-0.654). Forest land, grassland, and high value regions of HQ show "45°" distribution at two scales, with high and low values clearly clustered (Moran's I is 0.5440-0.580). The HQ evolution region is larger and more dispersed at the YRB-P scale, but accumulates in local areas at the YRB-I scale. In addition, the highest and lowest HQ mean values appear under the low speed development scenario at the YRB-P scale (0.721) and the rapid development scenario at the YRB-I scale (0.689), respectively. This study helps decision-makers control different scales and development scenarios to improve the ecological level of the study area.

How does technological innovation affect carbon emission efficiency in the Yellow River Economic Belt: the moderating role of government support and marketization

The Yellow River Economic Belt (YREB) is a fundamental ecological protection barrier for China. Its carbon pollution issues are currently severe owing to the extensive energy consumption and unsatisfactory industrial constructions. In this context, this paper estimates carbon emission efficiency (CEE) based on the panel data from 56 cities in the YREB during the period 2006-2019 and analyzes its spatial distribution characteristics. Additionally, the spatial Durbin model (SDM) is utilized to examine the effect of technological innovation (TI) on CEE as a result of the moderating effects of government support (GS) and marketization (MA), respectively. The results indicated that (i) in the YREB, CEE exhibited significant spatial autocorrelation characteristics; (ii) TI negatively affected local CEE; (iii) the moderating effect of local GS on the relationship between TI and CEE in the local area was negative, but its spatial spillover effect was still not significant; (iv) the moderating effect of local MA on the relationship between TI and CEE in the local area was also negative, but positive in the surrounding areas. Based on the empirical analysis, a series of policy suggestions are proposed to improve the YREB's CEE.