For prediction of elder survival by a Gompertz model, number dead is preferable to number alive

Artificial Neural Network Prediction of COVID-19 Daily Infection Count

This study addresses COVID-19 testing as a nonlinear sampling problem, aiming to uncover the dependence of the true infection count in the population on COVID-19 testing metrics such as testing volume and positivity rates. Employing an artificial neural network, we explore the relationship among daily confirmed case counts, testing data, population statistics, and the actual daily case count. The trained artificial neural network undergoes testing in in-sample, out-of-sample, and several hypothetical scenarios. A substantial focus of this paper lies in the estimation of the daily true case count, which serves as the output set of our training process. To achieve this, we implement a regularized backcasting technique that utilize death counts and the infection fatality ratio (IFR), as the death statistics and serological surveys (providing the IFR) as more reliable COVID-19 data sources. Addressing the impact of factors such as age distribution, vaccination, and emerging variants on the IFR time series is a pivotal aspect of our analysis. We expect our study to enhance our understanding of the genuine implications of the COVID-19 pandemic, subsequently benefiting mitigation strategies.

Male mortality rates mirror mortality rates of older females

Women on average live longer than men, which seems to suggest that women also age slower than men. However, the potential difference in the pace of aging between the sexes is a relatively controversial topic, and both positions, i.e. "men age faster" and "men and women age at the same pace", have found some support. We therefore employ parametric models previously established in model organisms as well as two nonparametric approaches to compare the pace of aging between the sexes using freely available mortality data from 13 high-income countries. Our results support the hypothesis that men age faster than women while also suggesting that the difference is small and that from a practical standpoint male mortality rates behave similarly to the mortality rates of women approximately eight years their senior.

Comparison of asymptotic confidence sets for regression in small samples

In case of small samples, asymptotic confidence sets may be inaccurate, with their actual coverage probability far from a nominal confidence level. In a single framework, we consider four popular asymptotic methods of confidence estimation. These methods are based on model linearization, F-test, likelihood ratio test, and nonparametric bootstrapping procedure. Next, we apply each of these methods to derive three types of confidence sets: confidence intervals, confidence regions, and pointwise confidence bands. Finally, to estimate the actual coverage of these confidence sets, we conduct a simulation study on three regression problems. A linear model and nonlinear Hill and Gompertz models are tested in conditions of different sample size and experimental noise. The simulation study comprises calculation of the actual coverage of confidence sets over pseudo-experimental datasets for each model. For confidence intervals, such metrics as width and simultaneous coverage are also considered. Our comparison shows that the F-test and linearization methods are the most suitable for the construction of confidence intervals, the F-test - for confidence regions and the linearization - for pointwise confidence bands.

Herbal supplement extends life span under some environmental conditions and boosts stress resistance

Genetic studies indicate that aging is modulated by a great number of genetic pathways. We have used Drosophila longevity and stress assays to test a multipath intervention strategy. To carry out this strategy, we supplemented the flies with herbal extracts (SC100) that are predicted to modulate the expression of many genes involved in aging and stress resistance, such as mTOR, NOS, NF-KappaB, and VEGF. When flies were housed in large cages with SC100 added, daily mortality rates of both male and female flies were greatly diminished in mid to late life. Surprisingly, SC100 also stabilized midlife mortality rate increases so as to extend the maximum life span substantially beyond the limits previously reported for D. melanogaster. Under these conditions, SC100 also promoted robust resistance to partial starvation stress and to heat stress. Fertility was the same initially in both treated and control flies, but it became significantly higher in treated flies at older ages as the fertility of control flies declined. Mean and maximum life spans of flies in vials at the same test site were also extended by SC100, but the life spans were short in absolute terms. In contrast, at an independent test site where stress was minimized, the flies exhibited much longer mean life spans, but the survival curves became highly rectangular and the effects of SC100 on both mean and maximum life spans declined greatly or were abolished. The data indicate that SC100 is a novel herbal mix with striking effects on enhancing Drosophila stress resistance and life span in some environments, while minimizing mid to late life mortality rates. They also show that the environment and other factors can have transformative effects on both the length and distribution of survivorship, and on the ability of SC100 to extend the life span.