The spatial distribution of forest carbon sinks and sources in China

Carbon pools in forest systems and new estimation based on an investigation of carbon sequestration

Forests, the ancient wooden giants, are both symbols of natural beauty and reservoirs of carbon stocks. The current climate crisis has created an urgent need for an in-depth study of forest ecosystems and carbon stocks. Based on forest inventory data from field surveys and four bioclimatic zones [Zone 1 (Z1, humid forest), Zone 2 (Z2, semi-humid forest), Zone 3 (Z3, semi-humid to semi-arid forest-grassland), and Zone 4 (Z4, semi-arid typical grassland)], two methods [Method 1 (M1) and Method 2 (M2)] were used to estimate carbon stocks in forest ecosystems in Shaanxi Province, China, and explored the spatial patterns of carbon pools and potential influences. The total forest ecosystem carbon pool amounted to 520.80 Tg C, of which 53.60% was stored aboveground, 17.16% belowground, and 29.24% in soil (depth of 0-10 cm). Spatially, there were marked north-south gradients in both biomass (Z2 > Z3 > Z1 > Z4) and soil organic carbon densities (Z1 > Z2 > Z3 > Z4). The differences between aboveground and belowground biomass carbon density across broadleaf, needle-leaf, and broadleaf and needle-leaf mixed forest were not pronounced, while soil organic carbon density had the order of broadleaf (18.38 Mg C/ha) > needle-leaf (11.29 Mg C/ha) > broadleaf and needle-leaf mixed forest (10.33 Mg C/ha). Under an ideal scenario that excludes external factors, mainly forest growth, the sequestration potential of forest biomass by 2032 was estimated by M1 as 85.43 Tg, and by M2 to be substantially higher at 176.21 Tg. As of 2062, M1 estimated 155.97 Tg of sequestration potential for forest biomass. The spatial patterns of forest biomass and soil carbon density were closely related to climatic factors, and these relationships allowed the spatial division into two distinct climatic regions. Moreover, biomass carbon density was significantly correlated with the normalized difference vegetation index, soil silt, and elevation. This study provides key information for promoting the strategic shift from light-green to deep-green forest systems in Shannxi Province and updates the estimation methods of forest ecosystems' carbon pools based on field surveys.

Age-Related Conservation in Plant-Soil Feedback Accompanied by Ectomycorrhizal Domination in Temperate Forests in Northeast China

This study investigates the effects of forest aging on ectomycorrhizal (EcM) fungal community and foraging behavior and their interactions with plant-soil attributes. We explored EcM fungal communities and hyphal exploration types via rDNA sequencing and investigated their associations with plant-soil traits by comparing younger (~120 years) and older (~250 years) temperate forest stands in Northeast China. The results revealed increases in the EcM fungal richness and abundance with forest aging, paralleled by plant-soil feedback shifting from explorative to conservative nutrient use strategies. In the younger stands, Tomentella species were prevalent and showed positive correlations with nutrient availability in both the soil and leaves, alongside rapid increases in woody productivity. However, the older stands were marked by the dominance of the genera Inocybe, Hymenogaster, and Otidea which were significantly and positively correlated with soil nutrient contents and plant structural attributes such as the community-weighted mean height and standing biomass. Notably, the ratios of longer-to-shorter distance EcM fungal exploration types tended to decrease along with forest aging. Our findings underscore the integral role of EcM fungi in the aging processes of temperate forests, highlighting the EcM symbiont-mediated mechanisms adapting to nutrient scarcity and promoting sustainability in plant-soil consortia.

How to achieve carbon neutrality and low-carbon economic development-evidence from provincial data in China

"Carbon Peaking and Carbon Neutrality" is a major strategy for China to cope with climate change at present. We define the carbon neutrality capability (CNC) to reflect the current situation of regional carbon neutrality, and propose a new coupling model to explore the coupling relationship between regional economic development and carbon neutrality capability (CNC). Finally, the influence mechanism of the energy consumption structure on CNC was further discussed by using STRIPAT model. The results show that: during we study period, the national average carbon sink was about 77.89 Mt, and the carbon sinks in Inner Mongolia, Heilongjiang, Sichuan and Yunnan were as high as 164 Mt, mainly concentrated in the western region. The national average carbon source is 222.12 Mt, which is about three times that of carbon sink. The carbon source in Shandong, Hebei and Jiangsu are as high as 400 Mt or more, mainly concentrated in the eastern region. In addition, the growth rate of carbon source is much faster than that of carbon sink, especially the carbon emission caused by energy consumption, which leads to a general decline in CNC, and the development of CNC in various provinces is not optimistic. CNC and economic development level of most provinces are in a state of recession decoupling, and the coupling state of the provinces studied in certain years is significantly different. The spatial distribution of CNC and GDP has shown a northeast-southwest pattern. In addition, the influence of coal consumption structure on CNC is significantly negative, so we should optimize the energy consumption structure and increase the proportion of clean energy consumption. This study can make clear the current carbon neutrality capability of provinces in China, facilitate the formulation and adjustment of emission reduction strategies of provinces and cities, and help China to achieve carbon neutrality as soon as possible.

Impacts of Cross-Sectoral Climate Policy on Forest Carbon Sinks and Their Spatial Spillover: Evidence from Chinese Provincial Panel Data

This paper examines the impact of cross-sectoral climate policy on forest carbon sinks. Due to the complexity of the climate change issue and the professional division of labor among government departments, cross-sectoral cooperation in formulating climate policy is a desirable strategy. Forest carbon sinks play an important role in addressing climate change, but there are few studies focusing on forest carbon sinks and cross-sectoral climate policies. Thus, based on the panel data of 30 provinces and cities in China from 2007 to 2020, this paper establishes a benchmark regression model and a spatial panel model to analyze the impact of cross-sectoral climate policies on forest carbon sinks. We find that cross-sectoral climate policies positively impact forest carbon sinks. Under the influence of the "demonstration effect", we find that cross-sectoral climate policies have a positive impact not only on the forest carbon sinks in the region but also on those in the neighboring region. Further analysis shows that for provinces with less developed forestry industry and small forest areas, the positive effect of cross-sectoral climate policies on forest carbon sinks is more obvious. Overall, this paper can serve as an important reference for local governments to formulate climate policies and increase the capacity of forest carbon sinks.

Carbon Sink under Different Carbon Density Levels of Forest and Shrub, a Case in Dongting Lake Basin, China

Terrestrial ecosystems play a critical role in the global carbon cycle and climate change mitigation. Studying the temporal and spatial dynamics of carbon sink and the driving mechanisms at the regional scale provides an important basis for ecological restoration and ecosystem management. Taking the Dongting Lake Basin as an example, we assessed the carbon sinks of forest and shrub from 2000 to 2020 based on the maps of biomass that were obtained by remote sensing, and analyzed the dynamics of carbon sinks that were contributed by different biomass carbon density levels of constant forest and shrub and new afforestation over the past two decades. The results showed that the carbon sink of forest and shrub in the Dongting Lake Basin grew rapidly from 2000 to 2020: carbon sink increased from 64.64 TgC between 2000 and 2010, to 382.56 TgC between 2010 and 2020. The continuous improvement of biomass carbon density has made a major contribution to carbon sink, especially the carbon density increase in low carbon density forests and shrubs. Carbon-dense forests and shrubs realized their contribution to carbon sink in the second decade after displaying negative carbon sink in the first decade. Carbon sink from new afforestation increased 61.16% from the first decade to the second decade, but the contribution proportion decreased. The overall low carbon density of forest and shrub in the Dongting Lake Basin and their carbon sink dynamics indicated their huge carbon sequestration potential in the future. In addition to continuously implementing forest protection and restoration projects to promote afforestation, the improvement of ecosystem quality should be paid more attention in ecosystem management for areas like Dongting Lake Basin, where ecosystems, though severely degraded, are important and fragile, to realize their huge carbon sequestration potential.

Spatio-temporal pattern of urban vegetation carbon sink and driving mechanisms of human activities in Huaibei, China

Carbon neutrality is a strategic choice for the sustainable development of global cities. Quantitatively assessing the spatio-temporal patterns of urban vegetation carbon sink and the impact of human activities has become an essential basis for adjusting urban carbon balance. We used Huaibei, a typical city with vigorous human coal resource mining activities, as the case study area. We regarded the net ecosystem productivity (NEP) as an indicator parameter of vegetation carbon sink and calculated it based on the improved Carnegie-Ames-Stanford approach (CASA). We then revealed the spatial-temporal evolution of vegetation carbon sink through trend analysis, coefficient of variation, and standard direction. Finally, we used geographic detectors to evaluate the impact of human activities on NEP. We found that net primary productivity (NPP) accuracy was good, and the R² value was 0.755 compared with MODIS NPP products. NEP was characterized by the first decrease and then increase, showing a slow increase overall, with an average trend coefficient of 0.15 gC·m^-2·a^-1. The average value in 2010 was the lowest at 18.30 gC·m^-2·a^-1. In terms of spatial characteristics, NEP showed a gradual decrease from north to south. High and severe fluctuations were distributed along the southeast, mainly concentrated in Duji District, Xiangshan District, and Lieshan District. The driving factors with reliable explanatory power for NEP were population density, GDP, and road density, while land use type, soil erosion intensity, and mining and collapse area had weak explanatory power. Meanwhile, factors of cooperative interaction enhanced the explanatory power of the results.

Soil Water Use Strategies of Dominant Tree Species Based on Stable Isotopes in Subtropical Regions, Central China

Water is a crucial factor affecting plant growth and ecosystem processes. In the subtropical region, global climate change leads to frequent seasonal droughts. How plant water strategies and the adaptability of forest ecosystems change is an urgent issue to be discussed. In this study, four sample plots (P. massoniana for Plot 1, C. lanceolata for Plot 2, Q. acutissima for Plot 3, C. funebris and I. corallina for Plot 4) were selected in the Taizishan Mountain area of Hubei, China, including three forest types (coniferous forest, broad-leaved forest and coniferous broad-leaved mixed forest) and five dominant tree species. The δD and δ18O isotope compositions in plant and soil water were analysed, and the water use strategies of dominant species were predicted by using the MixSIAR model. The water absorption depth and proportion of the five species were significantly different in different seasons. In plot 4, I. corallina and C. funebris derived (58.8 ± 14.0% and 55.7 ± 23.4%, respectively) water from 10–40 cm soil in wet season, but C. funebris shifted to derive water from deep soil in dry season. This result indicates that the mixing of C. funebris and I. corallina can effectively prevent water competition in dry season with water deficit. From wet season to dry season, the depth of water utilisation of the P. massoniana, C. lanceolata, Q. acutissima and C. funebris with deep roots converted from shallow to deep soil, suggesting that the four species had significant dimorphic root systems and strong ecological plasticity.

Estimation of the relative contributions of forest areal expansion and growth to China's forest stand biomass carbon sequestration from 1977 to 2018

As a prominent part of global and regional terrestrial carbon (C) pools, increases in forest biomass C sinks can be attributed to either forest areal expansion (FAE) or increased biomass C density (IBCD). Accurate estimates of the relative contributions of FAE and IBCD to forest C sequestration can improve our understanding of forest C cycling processes and will help to formulate rational afforestation policies to cope with global warming. In this study, the Continuous Biomass Expansion Factor (CBEF) model and Forest Identity concept were used to map the spatiotemporal variation of the relative contribution of FAE and IBCD to the C sequestration of forest (natural and planted forests) in China and seven regions during the past 40 years. Our results suggest that: (1) total forest biomass C density and stocks of forest increased from 35.41 Mg C ha^-1 and 4128.50 Tg C to 43.95 Mg C ha^-1 and 7906.23 Tg C in China from 1977 to 2018, respectively; (2) for all forests, the IBCD has been a smaller contributor to C sinks than FAE in China from 1977 to 2018 (33.27 vs. 66.73%); (3) the contribution of FAE to C sinks is greater than that of IBCD in planted forests (63.99 vs. 36.01%), while in natural forests, IBCD has a larger contribution than FAE (57.82 vs. 42.18%) from 1977 to 2018 and the relative contribution of FAE has exceeded IBCD in the last decade; and (4) these patterns varied at the regional level such that the relative contribution of FAE increased for planted forests in most regions but for natural forests, IBCD gradually reached saturation and C stocks declined in northern regions in the last decade. The results from this study suggest that total biomass C sinks will keep increasing because of the increased forest area contributed by afforestation and the relatively young trees in planted forests. This study facilitates a more comprehensive assessment of forest C budgets and improves our understanding of ecological mechanisms of forest biomass carbon stock and dynamics.

Radial Growth Responses to Climate of Pinus yunnanensis at Low Elevations of the Hengduan Mountains, China

The relationship between climate and forest is critical to understanding the influence of future climate change on terrestrial ecosystems. Research on trees at high elevations has uncovered the relationship in the Hengduan Mountains region, a critical biodiversity hotspot area in southwestern China. The relationship for the area at low elevations below 2800 m a.s.l. in the region remains unclear. In this study, we developed tree ring width chronologies of Pinus yunnanensis Franch. at five sites with elevations of 1170–1725 m in this area. Monthly precipitation, relative humidity, maximum/mean/minimum air temperature and the standardized precipitation evapotranspiration index (SPEI), a drought indicator with a multi-timescale, were used to investigate the radial growth-climate relationship. Results show that the growth of P. yunnanensis at different sites has a similar response pattern to climate variation. Relative humidity, precipitation, and air temperature in the dry season, especially in its last month (May), are critical to the radial growth of trees. Supplemental precipitation amounts and reduced mean or maximum air temperature can promote tree growth. The high correlations between chronologies and SPEI indicate that the radial growth of trees at the low elevations of the region is significantly limited by the moisture availability. Precipitation in the last month of the previous wet season determines the drought regime in the following dry seasons. In spite of some differences in the magnitudes of correlations in the low-elevation area of the Hengduan Mountains region, chronologies generally matched well with each other at different elevations, and the differences are not evident with the change in elevation.

Models ignoring spatial heterogeneities of forest age will significantly overestimate the climate effects on litterfall in China

Litterfall is an important process that links vegetation and soil pools and plays an important role in the maintenance of soil fertility. Although studies indicated that climate will significantly affect forest litterfall, the role of biotic factors such as the spatial heterogeneity of forest age, remains unclear. In this study, we built an updated dataset of litterfall in China and explored the key drivers affecting forest litterfall by establishing optimal linear mixed models (OLMMs). The potential bias of models and their spatial patterns were then evaluated based on the OLMMs and remotely sensed and China's forest inventory data. The results showed the mean annual temperature (MAT) and forest age were the key drivers affecting forest litterfall. Abiotic factors and forest age and height together accounted for 77.5% of the variation in observed litterfall. Although forest age and height did not apparently enhance the coefficient of determination (R²), these factors significantly decreased spatial errors. Therefore, if the model contains only climate factors and the spatial patterns of biotic factors are ignored, it will produce high spatial errors (-52% to 92%). In addition, when forest age and height were not considered, variation of litterfall explained by forest age was inappropriately attributed to MAT, which significantly overestimated the importance of climate factors on forest litterfall. Specifically, litterfall was overestimated for young forests and underestimated for old forests if the model did not contain forest age in China. Models that ignored forest age significantly overestimated the contribution of climatic factors on forest litterfall and produced high spatially specific errors. The comparison of the litterfall modeled by OLMMs and the remote sensing-based net primary production (NPP) indicated that litterfall and NPP are strongly dependent, and the ratio of litterfall to NPP linearly increased with forest age.

Future biomass carbon sequestration capacity of Chinese forests

Chinese forests, characterized by relatively young stand age, represent a significant biomass carbon (C) sink over the past several decades. Nevertheless, it is unclear how forest biomass C sequestration capacity in China will evolve as forest age, climate and atmospheric CO₂ concentration change continuously. Here, we present a semi-empirical model that incorporates forest age and climatic factors for each forest type to estimate the effects of forest age and climate change on total forest biomass, under three different scenarios based on the fifth phase of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP5). We estimate that age-related forest biomass C sequestration to be 6.69 Pg C (∼0.17 Pg C a^-1) from the 2000s to the 2040s. Climate change induces a rather weak increase in total forest biomass C sequestration (0.52-0.60 Pg C by the 2040s). We show that rising CO₂ concentrations could further increase the total forest biomass C sequestration by 1.68-3.12 Pg C in the 2040s across all three scenarios. Overall, the total forest biomass in China would increase by 8.89-10.37 Pg C by the end of 2040s. Our findings highlight the benefits of Chinese afforestation programs, continued climate change and increasing CO₂ concentration in sustaining the forest biomass C sink in the near future, and could therefore be useful for designing more realistic climate change mitigation policies such as continuous forestation programs and careful choice of tree species.

Estimating net primary production of natural grassland and its spatio-temporal distribution in China

The net primary production (NPP) of grassland largely determines terrestrial carbon (C) sinks, and thus plays an important role in the global C cycle. Comprehensive and sequential classification system of grasslands (CSCS) is a unique vegetation classification system (mainly for grassland) that is dependent on quantitative measurement indices [>0°C annual cumulative temperature (Σθ) and moisture index (K-value)]. Based on the relationship of the quantitative classification of CSCS and grassland NPP, a modified model of Carnegie-Ames-Stanford Approach (CASA) was used to predict the grassland NPP and its temporal and spatial distribution in China from 2004 to 2008. The scatter plot of the estimated NPP and the observed NPP showed that the estimated data can be accepted with correlation coefficient of 0.896 (P<0.05). The average annual NPP of grassland from 2004 to 2008 in China ranged from 443.23 to 554.40 g Cm(-2)yr.(-)(1). The NPP also showed spatial-temporal variations. There existed an increasing trend of NPP from the northwest to southeast due to the zonal distribution of vegetation. From the trend of monthly variations, it can be drawn that the NPP accumulation primarily occurred between April and October. The average NPP over seven months from April to October was 482.19 g Cm(-2), or about 88.78% of the annual total. The spatial-temporal trend suggests the importance of water and thermal regimes in determining the grassland NPP (i.e. water and thermal are key limited factors for the grassland production), which is also confirmed by a cluster analysis. The mean annual NPP and the total annual NPP differed significantly among grassland classes corresponding with different Σθ and K-value. The results demonstrate that the grassland NPP and the classes/super-classes in CSCS achieve the optimum coupling.

Spatiotemporal Changes of Built-Up Land Expansion and Carbon Emissions Caused by the Chinese Construction Industry

China is undergoing rapid urbanization, enlarging the construction industry, greatly expanding built-up land, and generating substantial carbon emissions. We calculated both the direct and indirect carbon emissions from energy consumption (anthropogenic emissions) in the construction sector and analyzed built-up land expansion and carbon storage losses from the terrestrial ecosystem. According to our study, the total anthropogenic carbon emissions from the construction sector increased from 3,905×10(4) to 103,721.17×10(4) t from 1995 to 2010, representing 27.87%-34.31% of the total carbon emissions from energy consumption in China. Indirect carbon emissions from other industrial sectors induced by the construction sector represented approximately 97% of the total anthropogenic carbon emissions of the sector. These emissions were mainly concentrated in seven upstream industry sectors. Based on our assumptions, built-up land expansion caused 3704.84×10(4) t of carbon storage loss from vegetation between 1995 and 2010. Cropland was the main built-up land expansion type across all regions. The study shows great regional differences. Coastal regions showed dramatic built-up land expansion, greater carbon storage losses from vegetation, and greater anthropogenic carbon emissions. These regional differences were the most obvious in East China followed by Midsouth China. These regions are under pressure for strong carbon emissions reduction.

Spatio-temporal changes in biomass carbon sinks in China's forests from 1977 to 2008

Forests play a leading role in regional and global carbon (C) cycles. Detailed assessment of the temporal and spatial changes in C sinks/sources of China's forests is critical to the estimation of the national C budget and can help to constitute sustainable forest management policies for climate change. In this study, we explored the spatio-temporal changes in forest biomass C stocks in China between 1977 and 2008, using six periods of the national forest inventory data. According to the definition of the forest inventory, China's forest was categorized into three groups: forest stand, economic forest, and bamboo forest. We estimated forest biomass C stocks for each inventory period by using continuous biomass expansion factor (BEF) method for forest stands, and the mean biomass density method for economic and bamboo forests. As a result, China's forests have accumulated biomass C (i.e., biomass C sink) of 1896 Tg (1 Tg=10(12) g) during the study period, with 1710, 108 and 78 Tg C in forest stands, and economic and bamboo forests, respectively. Annual forest biomass C sink was 70.2 Tg C a(-1), offsetting 7.8% of the contemporary fossil CO2 emissions in the country. The results also showed that planted forests have functioned as a persistent C sink, sequestrating 818 Tg C and accounting for 47.8% of total C sink in forest stands, and that the old-, mid- and young-aged forests have sequestrated 930, 391 and 388 Tg C from 1977 to 2008. Our results suggest that China's forests have a big potential as biomass C sink in the future because of its large area of planted forests with young-aged growth and low C density.