Assessing the distribution of employment vulnerability to the energy transition using employment carbon footprints

As the world moves away from fossil fuels, there is growing recognition of the need for a just transition of those working in carbon-intensive industries and for policy to support this transition. While recent policies such as the U.S. Inflation Reduction Act (IRA) have begun to incorporate support for energy-intensive regions, little work has thoroughly investigated which communities are most vulnerable to economic disruption in the energy transition and therefore require policy support. This paper analyzes the distribution of employment vulnerability in the U.S. by calculating the average "employment carbon footprint" of close-to every job in the U.S. economy at high geographic and sectoral granularity. The measure considers employment vulnerability across the entire economy and captures both fossil fuel consumption and production effects, with the sectors covered in our analysis accounting for 86% of total U.S. employment and 94% of U.S. carbon emissions outside of the transportation sector. We find that existing efforts to identify at-risk communities both in the literature and the IRA exclude regions of high employment vulnerability, and thereby risk leaving these communities behind in the energy transition. This work underscores the importance of proactive and continuous measures of employment vulnerability, presents policymakers with much-needed data to incorporate such measures into just transition policy and makes the case for place-based policy approaches when considering how best to support communities through the energy transition.

Policy Analysis of CO2 Capture and Sequestration with Anaerobic Digestion for Transportation Fuel Production

Low carbon fuel and waste management policies at the federal and state levels have catalyzed the construction of California's wet anaerobic digestion (AD) facilities. Wet ADs can digest food waste and dairy manure to produce compressed natural gas (CNG) for natural gas vehicles or electricity for electric vehicles (EVs). Carbon capture and sequestration (CCS) of CO2 generated from AD reduces the fuel carbon intensity by carbon removal in addition to avoided methane emissions. Using a combined lifecycle and techno-economic analysis, we determine the most cost-effective design under current and forthcoming federal and state low carbon fuel policies. Under many scenarios, designs that convert biogas to electricity for EVs (Biogas to EV) are favored; however, CCS is only cost-effective in these systems with policy incentives that exceed $200/tonne of CO2 captured. Adding CCS to CNG-producing systems (Biogas to CNG) only requires a single unit operation to prepare the CO2 for sequestration, with a sequestration cost of $34/tonne. When maximizing negative emissions is the goal, incentives are needed to either (1) fund CCS with Biogas to EV designs or (2) favor CNG over electricity production from wet AD facilities.

Residents' participation in energy performance certification for collective action on climate change: the case of EnerGuide

Introduction

Although governments have launched energy performance certification (EPC) programs to increase residential energy efficiency, residents' perception and acceptance of these programs have been little studied. This study contextualizes residents' intentions to participate in EPC programs in terms of their attributions to and attitudes toward climate change to find mediating factors and effects to help trigger collective action to reduce residential sector energy demand.

Methods

This study employed a partial least squares structural equation modeling approach to empirically analyze a survey conducted on 400 residents of Edmonton, Canada, who participated in the Canadian energy efficiency rating and labeling program, EnerGuide.

Results and Discussion

Using EnerGuide, a Canadian energy efficiency rating and labeling program, as an example, this study establishes a framework to explain that local residents' internal and external attributions to climate change elicit positive attitudes (need to take action), increasing their recognition of energy efficiency program benefits, which further promotes their EnerGuide program acceptance and participation intentions. This study also reveals the mediating effects between variables. Residents' attitudes toward climate change mediate the relationship between internal/external attributions and EnerGuide program acceptance, and they indirectly impact residents' program acceptance and participation intentions, with this effect moderated by energy efficiency program benefits. Residents' program acceptance also mediates the relationship between climate change attitudes/energy efficiency program benefits and the intention outcome.

Implication

The study provides an example of the use of climate change discourse to motivate residents' energy efficiency program participation.

Indicators for monitoring and evaluating climate change adaptation efforts in South Africa

Tracking and reporting on whether countries are implementing climate change adaptation initiatives are increasingly becoming more important, and indicators and metrics for monitoring climate change adaptation have equally become crucial. This study employed systematic literature coupled with expert consultation to identify climate adaptation metrics and indicators using South Africa as a case study. Specifically, this study identifies climate change adaptation indicators and selects indicators suitable for use in South Africa. Thirty-seven indicators of climate change adaptation covering different sectors were identified. Nine were identified as input indicators, eight as process indicators, 12 as output indicators and eight as outcome indicators. Application of the specific measurable achievable realistic and timely (SMART) criterion to the 37 indicators resulted in 18 indicators of climate change adaptation. Following stakeholder consultations, eight indicators were chosen as appropriate for tracking the country's progress towards climate change adaptation. The indicators developed in this study could contribute to climate adaptation tracking, while offering initial steps towards a set of indicators and their improvement thereof.

Contribution

Insights from this article can provide actionable information for decision-making in climate change adaptation. This is one of the few studies that seek to narrow down relevant and applicable indicators and metrics used by South Africa when reporting climate change adaptation.

Air quality equity in US climate policy

The United States government has indicated a desire to advance environmental justice through climate policy. As fossil fuel combustion produces both conventional pollutants and greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions, climate mitigation strategies may provide an opportunity to address historical inequities in air pollution exposure. To test the impact of climate policy implementation choices on air quality equity, we develop a broad range of GHG reduction scenarios that are each consistent with the US Paris Accord target and model the resulting air pollution changes. Using idealized decision criteria, we show that least cost and income-based emission reductions can exacerbate air pollution disparities for communities of color. With a suite of randomized experiments that facilitates exploration of a wider climate policy decision space, we show that disparities largely persist despite declines in average pollution exposure, but that reducing transportation emissions has the most potential to reduce racial inequities.

Assessing the European Electric-Mobility Transition: Emissions from Electric Vehicle Manufacturing and Use in Relation to the EU Greenhouse Gas Emission Targets

The European Union (EU) has set a 37.5% GHG reduction target in 2030 for the mobility sector, relative to 1990 levels. This requires increasing the share of zero-emission passenger vehicles, mainly in the form of electric vehicles (EVs). This study calculates future GHG emissions related to passenger vehicle manufacturing and use based on stated policy goals of EU Member States for EV promotion. Under these policies, by 2040 the stock of EVs would be about 73 times larger than those of 2020, contributing to a cumulative in-use emission reduction of 2.0 gigatons CO₂-eq. Nevertheless, this stated EV adoption will not be sufficiently fast to reach the EU's GHG reduction targets, and some of the GHG environmental burdens may be shifted to the EV battery manufacturing countries. To achieve the 2030 reduction targets, the EU as a whole needs to accelerate the phase-out of internal combustion engine vehicles and transit to e-mobility at the pace of the most ambitious Member States, such that EVs can comprise at least 55% of the EU passenger vehicle fleet in 2030. An accelerated decarbonization of the electricity system will become the most critical prerequisite for minimizing GHG emissions from both EV manufacturing and in-use stages.

Russian Enterprises in the Spring of 2022: Adapting to the New Wave of Sanctions and Views on the ESG Agenda

The article analyzes the results obtained by a regular survey of Russian enterprises in the real sector conducted by the Institute of Economic Forecasting, Russian Academy of Sciences. The consequences of economic sanctions against Russia for enterprises are assessed. The views of enterprises on the desirable measures of anticrisis policy aimed at countering sanctions are outlined. Methods for adaptation to sanctions that are applied by the enterprises themselves are described. The opinion expressed by enterprises about the role of the state in the economy is presented. The situation with the investment activity of enterprises is considered. Data on the purchases of Russian and foreign equipment are given, as well as comparative assessments of the quality of this equipment. The views of Russian enterprises on the relevance of the climate agenda are presented, as well as their attitude to the ESG principles. The share of Russian enterprises that publish financial statements on risks associated with climate change as well as nonfinancial statements in the field of sustainable development is estimated. The proportion of enterprises that set themselves the goal of reducing their carbon footprint is revealed.

Impacts of Cross-Sectoral Climate Policy on Forest Carbon Sinks and Their Spatial Spillover: Evidence from Chinese Provincial Panel Data

This paper examines the impact of cross-sectoral climate policy on forest carbon sinks. Due to the complexity of the climate change issue and the professional division of labor among government departments, cross-sectoral cooperation in formulating climate policy is a desirable strategy. Forest carbon sinks play an important role in addressing climate change, but there are few studies focusing on forest carbon sinks and cross-sectoral climate policies. Thus, based on the panel data of 30 provinces and cities in China from 2007 to 2020, this paper establishes a benchmark regression model and a spatial panel model to analyze the impact of cross-sectoral climate policies on forest carbon sinks. We find that cross-sectoral climate policies positively impact forest carbon sinks. Under the influence of the "demonstration effect", we find that cross-sectoral climate policies have a positive impact not only on the forest carbon sinks in the region but also on those in the neighboring region. Further analysis shows that for provinces with less developed forestry industry and small forest areas, the positive effect of cross-sectoral climate policies on forest carbon sinks is more obvious. Overall, this paper can serve as an important reference for local governments to formulate climate policies and increase the capacity of forest carbon sinks.

Tired of climate targets? Shift focus of IPCC scenarios from emission and growth targets to policies

Climate change has revived the debate on growth-versus-environment. In line with this, recently it has been proposed to shift the target focus of IPCC scenarios from emissions to post-growth. We argue here that this confounds ends and means, since while reduction of growth may be an outcome of good climate policies, it should not be a goal in itself. In fact, a post- or degrowth goal would mean an ineffective and costly way to reduce emissions. Instead, we suggest that the debate about pursuing economic growth versus achieving climate goals will become more transparent and policy-relevant through refocusing scenarios from targets to policy.

Life Cycle Greenhouse Gas Emissions of the USPS Next-Generation Delivery Vehicle Fleet

The United States Postal Service (USPS) plans to purchase 165,000 next-generation delivery vehicles (NGDVs) between 2023 and 2032. The USPS submitted an environmental impact statement (EIS) for two NGDV procurement scenarios: (1) 90% internal combustion engine vehicles (ICEVs) and 10% battery electric vehicles (BEVs) ("ICEV scenario") and (2) 100% BEVs ("BEV scenario"). To correct several significant deficiencies in the EIS, we conduct a cradle-to-grave life cycle greenhouse gas (GHG) assessment of these two scenarios. Our analysis improves upon the USPS's EIS by including vehicle production and end-of-life emissions, future grid decarbonization, and more accurate vehicle operating emissions. In our base case, we find that the ICEV and BEV scenarios would result in 15% greater and 8% fewer GHG emissions, respectively, than the USPS estimate. Favorable vehicle and grid development would result in 63% lower BEV scenario emissions than the USPS estimate. Consequently, we calculate a cumulative lifetime emission reduction of 57-82% (14.7-21.4 Mt CO₂e) from procuring 100% BEVs instead of 10% BEVs, compared to the USPS's estimate of 10.3 Mt. Given the long NGDV lifetimes, committing to the ICEV scenario squanders an ideal use case for BEVs, jeopardizes meeting our climate goals, and forgoes potential climate and environmental justice co-benefits.

Current understanding of the impact of climate change on mental health within UK parliament

There is growing evidence that climate change is linked to adverse mental health outcomes, with both direct and indirect impacts already being felt globally, including within the United Kingdom (UK). With the UK parliament tasked with passing legislation to mitigate against and adapt to climate change, it is well placed to take a lead in implementing policies that reduce the impact of climate change on mental health and even provide mental health benefits (e.g., by increasing access to green space). The extent to which the UK parliament considers the relationship between climate change and mental health in its decision-making was previously unknown. We report, through quantitative thematic analysis of the UK Hansard database, that the UK parliament has only infrequently made links between climate change and mental health. Where links have been made, the primary focus of the speeches were around flooding and anxiety. Key mental health impacts of climate change reported in the academic literature, such as high temperature and suicides, or experiences of eco-anxiety, were found to be missing entirely. Further, policies suggested in UK parliament to minimise the impact of climate change on mental health were focused on pushing adaptation measures such as flood defences rather than climate mitigation, indicating potential missed opportunities for effective policies with co-benefits for tackling climate change and mental health simultaneously. Therefore, this research suggests a need to raise awareness for UK policymakers of the costs of climate inaction on mental health, and potential co-benefits of climate action on mental health. Our results provide insight into where links have and have not been made to date, to inform targeted awareness raising and ultimately equip policymakers to protect the UK from the increasingly large impacts of climate change on mental health.

Strategies for Socioeconomic Development with Low Greenhouse Gas Emissions: Scenarios and Realities for Russia

This article is a supplemented and updated version of the report at the meeting of the Presidium of the Russian Academy of Sciences with the participation of the leadership of the Russian Ministry of Economic Development on September 21, 2021. The authors analyze the main opportunities and risks of implementing the Strategy for the Socioeconomic Development of the Russian Federation with Low Greenhouse Gas Emissions until 2050. The key role of the global climate agenda, determined by the leading countries of the world, primarily the European Union, in shaping the institutional environment that influences decision making in the field of national economic policy, is emphasized. It is argued that there is no automatic positive relationship between the race for so-called carbon neutrality of the economy by 2050, prescribed by the global climate agenda, and the achievement of the sustainable development goals set by the United Nations. Principles and approaches to reduce the risks of decarbonization of the economy are formulated. These provide for the integration of a set of measures to reduce net greenhouse gas emissions with those to adapt communities and economic systems to climate change, and harmonize the measures above with the national goals of long-term sustainable development. Estimates of the economic effects of implementation of various scenarios of the decarbonization of the national economy and the associated risks of the global energy transition for Russia are introduced.

Fossil-Fuel Options for Power Sector Net-Zero Emissions with Sequestration Tax Credits

Three of the main challenges in achieving rapid decarbonization of the electric power sector in the near term are getting to net-zero while maintaining grid reliability and minimizing cost. In this policy analysis, we evaluate the performance of a variety of generation strategies using this "triple objective" including nuclear, renewables with different energy storage options, and carbon-emitting generation with carbon capture and storage (CCS) and direct air capture and storage (DACS) technologies. Given the current U.S. tax credits for carbon sequestration under Section 45Q of the Internal Revenue Code, we find that two options: (1) cofiring bioenergy in existing coal-fired assets equipped with CCS, and (2) coupling existing natural gas combined-cycle plants equipped with CCS and DACS, robustly dominate other generation strategies across many assumptions and uncertainties. As a result, capacity-expansion modelers, planners, and policymakers should consider such combinations of carbon-constrained fossil-fuel and negative emissions technologies, together with modifications of the current national incentives, when designing the pathways to a carbon-free economy.

Solar Panels and Political Attitudes

In the fight against climate change, renewable energy has been subsidised in many countries. With the costs passed onto consumers, governments are paying those, for example, who instal domestic solar panels on top of their homes and feed electricity back into the system at preferential rates. We know that substantial amounts of income flow into households with solar installations as a result, but we do not know much about the political consequences of these programmes. Similar government programmes are known to have resource and interpretative effects on participants, leading to changes in their attitudes. Drawing on three longitudinal surveys from Germany, United Kingdom, and Switzerland, this article analyses whether installation of these solar panels causes meaningful changes in households' various political attitudes. Using fixed-effect models as the identification strategy, the article reports null results - solar installations do not seem to generate political attitudes. This is good as well as bad news for actors looking to increase the amount of renewable energy produced through solar installations.

What Do We Know about Zero-Emission Vehicle Mandates?

Many researchers, policymakers, and stakeholders view zero-emissions vehicles (ZEVs) as playing an important role in deep decarbonization of the transport sector. Here, we bring attention to one policy that can effectively induce ZEV sales in the long term: a ZEV sales mandate. Although three decades have passed since the first mandate was implemented in California, there is surprisingly little research regarding its policy impacts. From a greenhouse gas (GHG) mitigation perspective, we argue that ZEV mandates should be framed and analyzed as complex policy-with intended impacts on industry, consumers, and institutions over the long term. We present an interdisciplinary framework to address this complexity, summarizing the limited evidence to date on policy effectiveness, efficiency, public acceptability, and transformative potential. We conclude with a critical research agenda to improve understanding of the role of a mandate in an effective policy mix.

Energy efficiency: The evolution of a motherhood concept

Energy efficiency is a popular policy strategy to reduce energy consumption and greenhouse gas emissions. The concept of energy efficiency is relatively simple - to use less energy for the same level of output. However, complexities emerge when applying efficiency concepts to real world processes and practices of energy consumption: subjective judgments when defining, measuring and applying energy efficiency principles, how efficiency is conceptualized and applied in policy, and how policy is designed and implemented, given social and environmental tradeoffs. This article traces the evolution of EU energy efficiency policy over seven decades to better understand underlying values and tradeoffs from a sociological perspective. Using insights from critical policy studies, the article reveals how certain values are reflected in how energy efficiency is defined and measured over time. It highlights how the conceptualization of energy efficiency has been used as an effective rhetorical device - and how some potentially relevant concepts and issues get sidelined in favor of others. The analysis illustrates how narrow conceptualizations of energy efficiency has put blinders on wider environmental and social issues. This points to the need for a more nuanced policy approach that takes into account the complexities and uncertainties of societal and policy challenges. The findings point to the need for energy efficiency policy that pays closer attention to citizens' views and collective solutions in order to formulate more effective policy to reduce energy consumption.

Equitable, effective, and feasible approaches for a prospective fossil fuel transition

Most fossil fuel resources must remain unused to comply with the Paris Agreement on Climate Change. Scholars and policymakers debate which approaches should be undertaken to Leave Fossil Fuels Underground (LFFU). However, existing scholarship has not yet inventoried and evaluated the array of approaches to LFFU based on their effectiveness, equity, or feasibility. Hence, this review article asks: What lessons can we learn from reviewing scholarship on proposed approaches to leaving fossil fuels underground (LFFU)? We identify 28 unique LFFU approaches, of which only 12 are deemed environmentally effective (e.g., fossil fuel extraction taxes, bans and moratoria, and financial swaps); eight involve moderate-to-high (non-)monetary costs, and only four are deemed entirely just and equitable. Of the 12 environmentally effective approaches: only three were deemed cost-effective (regulating financial capital for fossil fuel projects, removing existing fossil fuel subsidies, and bans & moratoria); merely four were deemed equitable (asset write-offs, retiring existing fossil infrastructure, pursuing court cases/litigation, and financial swaps); and all were deemed institutionally problematic in terms of their feasibility (six were challenging to implement as they threatened the vested interests of powerful stakeholder groups). Moreover, the reviewed scholarship draws heavily on empirical studies of how these LFFU approaches can be optimized in European, North American, and Chinese contexts; fewer studies have explored the effectiveness and fairness of LFFU approaches in the South and/or in a North-South context. Future research should particularly focus on North-South fossil fuel financial flows, which have received comparatively little attention. This article is categorized under:The Carbon Economy and Climate Mitigation > Decarbonizing Energy and/or Reducing Demand.

Why marginal CO2 emissions are not decreasing for US electricity: Estimates and implications for climate policy

Marginal emissions of CO₂ from the electricity sector are critical for evaluating climate policies that rely on shifts in electricity demand or supply. This paper provides estimates of marginal CO₂ emissions from US electricity generation using the most recently available and comprehensive data. The estimates vary by region, hour of the day, and year to year over the last decade. We identify an important and somewhat counterintuitive finding: While average emissions have decreased substantially over the last decade (28% nationally), marginal emissions have increased (7% nationally). We show that underlying these trends is primarily a shift toward greater reliance on coal to satisfy marginal electricity use. We apply our estimates to an analysis of the Biden administration's target of having electric vehicles (EVs) make up 50% of new vehicle purchases by 2030. We find that, without significant and concurrent changes to the electricity sector, the increase in electricity emissions is likely to offset more than half of the emission reductions from having fewer gasoline-powered vehicles on the road. Moreover, using average rather than marginal emissions to predict the impacts significantly overestimates the emission benefits. Overall, we find that the promise of EVs for reducing emissions depends, to a large degree, on complementary policies that decarbonize both average and marginal emissions in the electricity sector.

Systematic over-crediting in California's forest carbon offsets program

Carbon offsets are widely used by individuals, corporations, and governments to mitigate their greenhouse gas emissions on the assumption that offsets reflect equivalent climate benefits achieved elsewhere. These climate-equivalence claims depend on offsets providing real and additional climate benefits beyond what would have happened, counterfactually, without the offsets project. Here, we evaluate the design of California's prominent forest carbon offsets program and demonstrate that its climate-equivalence claims fall far short on the basis of directly observable evidence. By design, California's program awards large volumes of offset credits to forest projects with carbon stocks that exceed regional averages. This paradigm allows for adverse selection, which could occur if project developers preferentially select forests that are ecologically distinct from unrepresentative regional averages. By digitizing and analyzing comprehensive offset project records alongside detailed forest inventory data, we provide direct evidence that comparing projects against coarse regional carbon averages has led to systematic over-crediting of 30.0 million tCO₂ e (90% CI: 20.5-38.6 million tCO₂ e) or 29.4% of the credits we analyzed (90% CI: 20.1%-37.8%). These excess credits are worth an estimated $410 million (90% CI: $280-$528 million) at recent market prices. Rather than improve forest management to store additional carbon, California's forest offsets program creates incentives to generate offset credits that do not reflect real climate benefits.

Transformative Frames for Climate Threat in the Anthropocene

This is a mini review of literature surrounding new inter and transdisciplinary frames of the threat of climate change including "Anthropocene," linked with "climate crisis," "climate emergency," and "climate catastrophe". The specific meanings and consequences of these frames are discussed and an argument why these frames are needed and risk is not enough. Ultimately, this article concludes these new framings assist transformative change by opening up climate change science, citizen engagement, and policy response. However, no one frame and no one associated policy is supported, but a plurality, dependent on context, and culture.

Emissions and Health Implications of Pennsylvania's Entry into the Regional Greenhouse Gas Initiative

The Regional Greenhouse Gas Initiative (RGGI) is a cap-and-trade system targeting CO₂ emissions from the electricity sector in the northeastern United States. As a major power producer and carbon emitter, Pennsylvania plans to join RGGI in 2022, which will affect both the carbon market (i.e., RGGI) and the regional electricity market (i.e., PJM). Combining a PJM power system model with a reduced-form model of CO₂ emissions abatement from RGGI states that are not in PJM, we find the annual average emissions from power plants in Pennsylvania can be reduced by 40%, 79%, 68%, and 76% for CO₂, SO₂, NO_x, and PM_2.5, respectively, during 2022-2030. Then, based on a range of source-specific marginal damage estimates, we find the cumulative monetized health cobenefits to be 17.7 to 40.8 billion USD. However, the reduced emissions and health damages in Pennsylvania are slightly offset by increases in the other states in PJM that do not participate in RGGI. Our study hence highlights the potential cross-state leakage issue that warrants careful consideration in the policy design and implementation process.

The role of national carbon pricing in phasing out China's coal power

As the country with the world's largest coal power capacity, China is launching a national carbon market. How the carbon pricing may contribute to phasing out China's coal power is a great concern. We collect full-sample data set of China's 4540 operating coal plant units and develop a stochastic Monte-Carlo financial model to assess the financial sustainability of the plant operation. Although China's coal plants have long residual technical lifetime, their operations are close to the break-even state. Even with low carbon price of 50 CNY/tCO₂ growing at 4%/y and the permits being fully auctioned, the average residual lifetime of all the plants will be reduced by 5.43 years, and the cumulative CO₂ emission from 2020 to 2050 will be reduced by 22.73 billion ton. The spatial disparity in the carbon pricing effect is significant, and the western regions are more vulnerable to the carbon pricing risk than the eastern regions.

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A bottom-up evaluation is conducted by making a unit-by-unit full-sample analysis

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Carbon pricing can substantially impact the financial sustainability of coal power

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Carbon permit allocation method plays a key role in determining the overall effect

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The spatial disparity in the carbon pricing effect is significant

Accounting for the Greenhouse Gas Emission Intensity of Regional Electricity Transfers

Accurately quantifying greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions is essential for climate policy implementation but challenging in the case of electricity transfers across regulatory jurisdictions. Regulating emissions associated with delivered electricity is further complicated by contractual arrangements for dynamic electricity transfers that confound emission accounting approaches rooted in the physics of grid operations. Here, we propose a novel consumption-based accounting methodology to reconcile the nominal and the physical flows of electricity from generators to consumers. We also compare capacity factor-based and regression-based approaches for estimating default emission factors, in the absence of fully specified nominal electricity flows. As a case study, we apply this approach to assess the methods by which California regulators quantify specified and unspecified electricity imports and their associated GHG emissions. Collectively, these efforts illustrate principles for a comprehensive, empirical accounting framework that could inform efforts to improve the accuracy and consistency of policies regulating regional electricity transfers.

Addressing partial identification in climate modeling and policy analysis

Numerical simulations of the global climate system provide inputs to integrated assessment modeling for estimating the impacts of greenhouse gas mitigation and other policies to address global climate change. While essential tools for this purpose, computational climate models are subject to considerable uncertainty, including intermodel "structural" uncertainty. Structural uncertainty analysis has emphasized simple or weighted averaging of the outputs of multimodel ensembles, sometimes with subjective Bayesian assignment of probabilities across models. However, choosing appropriate weights is problematic. To use climate simulations in integrated assessment, we propose, instead, framing climate model uncertainty as a problem of partial identification, or "deep" uncertainty. This terminology refers to situations in which the underlying mechanisms, dynamics, or laws governing a system are not completely known and cannot be credibly modeled definitively even in the absence of data limitations in a statistical sense. We propose the min-max regret (MMR) decision criterion to account for deep climate uncertainty in integrated assessment without weighting climate model forecasts. We develop a theoretical framework for cost-benefit analysis of climate policy based on MMR, and apply it computationally with a simple integrated assessment model. We suggest avenues for further research.

Focusing climate negotiations on a uniform common commitment can promote cooperation

International cooperation on the reduction of greenhouse gas emissions, disarmament, or free trade needs to be negotiated. The success of such negotiations depends on how they are designed. In the context of international climate change policy, it has been proposed [e.g., M. L. Weitzman J. Assoc. Environ. Resour. Econ. 1, 29-49 (2014)] that shifting the negotiation focus to a uniform common commitment (such as a uniform minimum carbon price) would lead to more ambitious cooperation. Yet, a proof-of-concept for this important claim is lacking. Based on game theoretical analyses, we present experimental evidence that strongly supports this conjecture. In our study, human subjects negotiate contributions to a public good. Subjects differ in their benefits and costs of cooperation. Participation in the negotiations and all commitments are voluntary. We consider treatments in which agreements are enforceable, and treatments in which they have to be self-enforcing. In both situations, negotiating a uniform common commitment is more successful in promoting cooperation than negotiating individual commitments (as in the Paris Agreement) and complex common commitments that tailor the commitment to the specific situation of each party (as attempted with the Kyoto Protocol). Furthermore, as suggested by our model, a uniform common commitment benefits most from being enforced.

Agriculture's Contribution to Climate Change and Role in Mitigation Is Distinct From Predominantly Fossil CO2-Emitting Sectors

Agriculture is a significant contributor to anthropogenic global warming, and reducing agricultural emissions—largely methane and nitrous oxide—could play a significant role in climate change mitigation. However, there are important differences between carbon dioxide (CO₂), which is a stock pollutant, and methane (CH₄), which is predominantly a flow pollutant. These dynamics mean that conventional reporting of aggregated CO₂-equivalent emission rates is highly ambiguous and does not straightforwardly reflect historical or anticipated contributions to global temperature change. As a result, the roles and responsibilities of different sectors emitting different gases are similarly obscured by the common means of communicating emission reduction scenarios using CO₂-equivalence. We argue for a shift in how we report agricultural greenhouse gas emissions and think about their mitigation to better reflect the distinct roles of different greenhouse gases. Policy-makers, stakeholders, and society at large should also be reminded that the role of agriculture in climate mitigation is a much broader topic than climate science alone can inform, including considerations of economic and technical feasibility, preferences for food supply and land-use, and notions of fairness and justice. A more nuanced perspective on the impacts of different emissions could aid these conversations.

Digital and competing information sources: Impact on environmental concern and prospects for international policy cooperation

The environmental concern of people in industrialized and developing countries is analyzed. Using the 2010–2014 wave of the World Value Survey (WVS), the main purpose of our analysis is to investigate the effect of different information sources on the affective, conative and behavioral components of the environmental concern of people in the developed and developing countries. As independent variables, we use a set of economic data as well as information-related variables, including the internet, mobile phones, TV, radio and newspapers. The digital variables of the internet and mobile phones turn out to have a highly significant impact on environmental concern so that digital modernization of countries should have pro-environmental impacts as a side effect of internet and mobile phone services expansion. With the developing countries catching-up vis-à-vis the OECD countries in the field of mobile phone density and internet density, respectively, one may expect better prospects for cooperation between developed and developing countries since attitudes/the environmental concern of people in developed and developing countries will become more similar. For international green cooperation and climate change policy progress, the new findings presented herein are crucial.

Climate Change Mitigation Policies and Co-Impacts on Indigenous Health: A Scoping Review

Climate change mitigation policies can either facilitate or hinder progress towards health equity, and can have particular implications for Indigenous health. We sought to summarize current knowledge about the potential impacts (co-benefits and co-harms) of climate mitigation policies and interventions on Indigenous health. Using a Kaupapa Māori theoretical positioning, we adapted a validated search strategy to identify studies for this scoping review. Our review included empirical and modeling studies that examined a range of climate change mitigation measures, with health-related outcomes analyzed by ethnicity or socioeconomic status. Data were extracted from published reports and summarized. We identified 36 studies that examined a diverse set of policy instruments, with the majority located in high-income countries. Most studies employed conventional Western research methodologies, and few examined potential impacts of particular relevance to Indigenous peoples. The existing body of knowledge is limited in the extent to which it can provide definitive evidence about co-benefits and co-harms for Indigenous health, with impacts highly dependent on individual policy characteristics and contextual factors. Improving the quality of evidence will require research partnerships with Indigenous communities and study designs that centralize Indigenous knowledges, values, realities and priorities.

Comparing coal phase-out pathways: The United Kingdom's and Germany's diverging transitions

Political decisions and trends regarding coal use for electricity generation developed differently in the UK and Germany, despite being subject to relatively similar climate protection targets and general political and economic conditions. The UK agreed on a coal phase-out by 2024. In Germany, a law schedules a coal phase-out by 2038 at the latest. This paper investigates reasons for the different developments and aims to identify main hurdles and drivers of coal phase-outs by using the Triple Embeddedness Framework. The comparative case study approach reveals that policy outcomes regarding coal consumption are deeply influenced by several actor groups, namely, coal companies, unions, environmental NGOs, and the government. The most discussed aspects of a coal phase-out in both countries are energy security concerns, whether coal is mined domestically, (regional) economic dependence, as well as the relative power of actors with vested interests in coal consumption.

The Vulcan Version 3.0 High-Resolution Fossil Fuel CO2 Emissions for the United States

Estimates of high-resolution greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions have become a critical component of climate change research and an aid to decision makers considering GHG mitigation opportunities. The "Vulcan Project" is an effort to estimate bottom-up carbon dioxide emissions from fossil fuel combustion and cement production (FFCO₂) for the U.S. landscape at space and time scales that satisfy both scientific and policy needs. Here, we report on the Vulcan version 3.0 which quantifies emissions at a resolution of 1 km²/hr for the 2010-2015 time period. We estimate 2011 FFCO₂ emissions of 1,589.9 TgC with a 95% confidence interval of 1,367/1,853 TgC (-14.0%/+16.6%), implying a one-sigma uncertainty of ~ ±8%. Per capita emissions are larger in states dominated by electricity production and industrial activity and smaller where onroad and building emissions dominate. The U.S. FFCO₂ emissions center of mass (CoM) is located in the state of Missouri with mean seasonality that moves on a near-elliptical NE/SW path. Comparison to ODIAC, a global gridded FFCO₂ emissions estimate, shows large total emissions differences (100.4 TgC for year 2011), a spatial correlation of 0.68 (R²), and a mean absolute relative difference at the 1 km² scale of 104.3%. The Vulcan data product offers a high-resolution estimate of FFCO₂ emissions in every U.S. city, obviating costly development of self-reported urban inventories. The Vulcan v3.0 annual gridded emissions data product can be downloaded from the Oak Ridge National Laboratory Distributed Active Archive Center (Gurney, Liang, et al., 2019, https://doi.org/10.3334/ORNLDAAC/1741).

The Vulcan Version 3.0 High-Resolution Fossil Fuel CO2 Emissions for the United States

Estimates of high-resolution greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions have become a critical component of climate change research and an aid to decision makers considering GHG mitigation opportunities. The "Vulcan Project" is an effort to estimate bottom-up carbon dioxide emissions from fossil fuel combustion and cement production (FFCO2) for the U.S. landscape at space and time scales that satisfy both scientific and policy needs. Here, we report on the Vulcan version 3.0 which quantifies emissions at a resolution of 1 km2/hr for the 2010-2015 time period. We estimate 2011 FFCO2 emissions of 1,589.9 TgC with a 95% confidence interval of 1,367/1,853 TgC (-14.0%/+16.6%), implying a one-sigma uncertainty of ~ ±8%. Per capita emissions are larger in states dominated by electricity production and industrial activity and smaller where onroad and building emissions dominate. The U.S. FFCO2 emissions center of mass (CoM) is located in the state of Missouri with mean seasonality that moves on a near-elliptical NE/SW path. Comparison to ODIAC, a global gridded FFCO2 emissions estimate, shows large total emissions differences (100.4 TgC for year 2011), a spatial correlation of 0.68 (R2), and a mean absolute relative difference at the 1 km2 scale of 104.3%. The Vulcan data product offers a high-resolution estimate of FFCO2 emissions in every U.S. city, obviating costly development of self-reported urban inventories. The Vulcan v3.0 annual gridded emissions data product can be downloaded from the Oak Ridge National Laboratory Distributed Active Archive Center (Gurney, Liang, et al., 2019, https://doi.org/10.3334/ORNLDAAC/1741).

Next-Generation Digital Ecosystem for Climate Data Mining and Knowledge Discovery: A Review of Digital Data Collection Technologies

Climate change has been called "the defining challenge of our age" and yet the global community lacks adequate information to understand whether actions to address it are succeeding or failing to mitigate it. The emergence of technologies such as earth observation (EO) and Internet-of-Things (IoT) promises to provide new advances in data collection for monitoring climate change mitigation, particularly where traditional means of data exploration and analysis, such as government-led statistical census efforts, are costly and time consuming. In this review article, we examine the extent to which digital data technologies, such as EO (e.g., remote sensing satellites, unmanned aerial vehicles or UAVs, generally from space) and IoT (e.g., smart meters, sensors, and actuators, generally from the ground) can address existing gaps that impede efforts to evaluate progress toward global climate change mitigation. We argue that there is underexplored potential for EO and IoT to advance large-scale data generation that can be translated to improve climate change data collection. Finally, we discuss how a system employing digital data collection technologies could leverage advances in distributed ledger technologies to address concerns of transparency, privacy, and data governance.

Modelling carbon mitigation pathways by 2050: Insights from the Global Calculator

The Global Calculator (GC) can be used to assess a wide range of climate change mitigation pathways. The GC is an accessible integrated model which calculates the cumulative emissions of a basket of the main greenhouse gases that result from a set of technological and lifestyle choices made at the global level and as defined by the user within a single system dynamics tool. Using the GC, we simulated ambitious scenarios against business as usual trends in order to stay below 2 °C and 1.5 °C of maximum temperature change by the end of this century and carried out a sensitivity analysis of the entire GC model option space. We show that the calculator is useful for making broad simulations for energy, carbon and land use dynamics, and demonstrate how combined and sustained mitigation efforts across different sectors are urgently needed to meet climate targets.

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The Global Calculator is able to demonstrate carbon mitigation pathways for both 2 °C and 1.5 °C targets.

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The model enables its users to design and reflect on new global energy strategies and policies.

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The sensitivity analysis shows each sector's contribution for reducing GHG emissions globally.

Evidence that a national REDD+ program reduces tree cover loss and carbon emissions in a high forest cover, low deforestation country

Reducing emissions from deforestation and forest degradation (REDD+) is a climate change mitigation policy in which rich countries provide payments to developing countries for protecting their forests. In 2009, the countries of Norway and Guyana entered into one of the first bilateral REDD+ programs, with Norway offering to pay US$250 million to Guyana if annual deforestation rates remained below 0.056% from 2010 to 2015. To quantify the impact of this national REDD+ program, we construct a counterfactual times-series trajectory of annual tree cover loss using synthetic matching. This analytical approach allows us to quantify tree cover loss that would have occurred in the absence of the Norway-Guyana REDD+ program. We found that the Norway-Guyana REDD+ program reduced tree cover loss by 35% during the implementation period (2010 to 2015), equivalent to 12.8 million tons of avoided CO₂ emissions. Our analysis indicates that national REDD+ payments attenuated the effect of increases in gold prices, an internationally traded commodity that is the primary deforestation driver in Guyana. Overall, we found strong evidence that the program met the additionality criteria of REDD+. However, we found that tree cover loss increased after the payments ended, and therefore, our results suggest that without continued payments, forest protection is not guaranteed. On the issue of leakage, which is complex and difficult to quantify, a multinational REDD+ program for a region could address leakage that results from differences in forest policies between neighboring countries.

Turning risk assessment and adaptation policy priorities into meaningful interventions and governance processes

The UK is one of the first countries in the world to have set up a statutory system of national climate risk assessments followed by a national adaptation programme. Having this legal framework has been essential for enabling adaptation at the government level in a challenging political environment. However, using this framework to create an improvement in resilience to climate change across the country requires more than publishing a set of documents; it requires careful thought about what interventions work, how they can be enabled and what level of risk acceptability individuals, organizations and the country should be aiming for.This article is part of the theme issue 'Advances in risk assessment for climate change adaptation policy'.

Building equity in: strategies for integrating equity into modelling for a 1.5°C world

Emission pathways consistent with limiting temperature increase to 1.5°C raise pressing questions from an equity perspective. These pathways would limit impacts and benefit vulnerable communities but also present trade-offs that could increase inequality. Meanwhile, rapid mitigation could exacerbate political debates in which equity has played a central role. In this paper, we first develop a set of elements we suggest are essential for evaluating the equity implications of policy actions consistent with 1.5°C. These elements include (i) assess climate impacts, adaptation, loss and damage; (ii) be sensitive to context; (iii) compare costs of mitigation and adaptation policy action; (iv) incorporate human development and poverty; (v) integrate inequality dynamics; and (vi) be clear about normative assumptions and responsive to users. We then assess the ability of current modelling practices to address each element, focusing on global integrated assessment models augmented by national modelling and scenarios. We find current practices face serious limitations across all six dimensions although the severity of these varies. Finally, based on our assessment we identify strategies that may be best suited for enabling us to generate insights into each of the six elements in the context of assessing pathways for a 1.5°C world.This article is part of the theme issue 'The Paris Agreement: understanding the physical and social challenges for a warming world of 1.5°C above pre-industrial levels'.

Near-term deployment of carbon capture and sequestration from biorefineries in the United States

Carbon dioxide removal through the permanent sequestration of biogenic CO₂ is a critical technique for climate change mitigation, but most bioenergy with carbon capture and sequestration (CCS) technologies are technically immature or commercially unavailable. In contrast, examples of CCS of biogenic CO₂ resulting from fermentation emissions already exist at scale. Here, we evaluate low-cost, commercially ready sequestration opportunities for existing biorefineries in the United States. We find that existing and proposed financial incentives suggest a substantial near-term opportunity to catalyze the growth of CCS infrastructure, improve the impacts of conventional biofuels, support development of carbon-negative biofuels, and satisfy low-carbon fuel policies.

Capture and permanent geologic sequestration of biogenic CO₂ emissions may provide critical flexibility in ambitious climate change mitigation. However, most bioenergy with carbon capture and sequestration (BECCS) technologies are technically immature or commercially unavailable. Here, we evaluate low-cost, commercially ready CO₂ capture opportunities for existing ethanol biorefineries in the United States. The analysis combines process engineering, spatial optimization, and lifecycle assessment to consider the technical, economic, and institutional feasibility of near-term carbon capture and sequestration (CCS). Our modeling framework evaluates least cost source–sink relationships and aggregation opportunities for pipeline transport, which can cost-effectively transport small CO₂ volumes to suitable sequestration sites; 216 existing US biorefineries emit 45 Mt CO₂ annually from fermentation, of which 60% could be captured and compressed for pipeline transport for under $25/tCO₂. A sequestration credit, analogous to existing CCS tax credits, of $60/tCO₂ could incent 30 Mt of sequestration and 6,900 km of pipeline infrastructure across the United States. Similarly, a carbon abatement credit, analogous to existing tradeable CO₂ credits, of $90/tCO₂ can incent 38 Mt of abatement. Aggregation of CO₂ sources enables cost-effective long-distance pipeline transport to distant sequestration sites. Financial incentives under the low-carbon fuel standard in California and recent revisions to existing federal tax credits suggest a substantial near-term opportunity to permanently sequester biogenic CO₂. This financial opportunity could catalyze the growth of carbon capture, transport, and sequestration; improve the lifecycle impacts of conventional biofuels; support development of carbon-negative fuels; and help fulfill the mandates of low-carbon fuel policies across the United States.

Model confirmation in climate economics

Benefit-cost integrated assessment models (BC-IAMs) inform climate policy debates by quantifying the trade-offs between alternative greenhouse gas abatement options. They achieve this by coupling simplified models of the climate system to models of the global economy and the costs and benefits of climate policy. Although these models have provided valuable qualitative insights into the sensitivity of policy trade-offs to different ethical and empirical assumptions, they are increasingly being used to inform the selection of policies in the real world. To the extent that BC-IAMs are used as inputs to policy selection, our confidence in their quantitative outputs must depend on the empirical validity of their modeling assumptions. We have a degree of confidence in climate models both because they have been tested on historical data in hindcasting experiments and because the physical principles they are based on have been empirically confirmed in closely related applications. By contrast, the economic components of BC-IAMs often rely on untestable scenarios, or on structural models that are comparatively untested on relevant time scales. Where possible, an approach to model confirmation similar to that used in climate science could help to build confidence in the economic components of BC-IAMs, or focus attention on which components might need refinement for policy applications. We illustrate the potential benefits of model confirmation exercises by performing a long-run hindcasting experiment with one of the leading BC-IAMs. We show that its model of long-run economic growth-one of its most important economic components-had questionable predictive power over the 20th century.

Cattle ranching intensification in Brazil can reduce global greenhouse gas emissions by sparing land from deforestation

This study examines whether policies to encourage cattle ranching intensification in Brazil can abate global greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions by sparing land from deforestation. We use an economic model of global land use to investigate, from 2010 to 2030, the global agricultural outcomes, land use changes, and GHG abatement resulting from two potential Brazilian policies: a tax on cattle from conventional pasture and a subsidy for cattle from semi-intensive pasture. We find that under either policy, Brazil could achieve considerable sparing of forests and abatement of GHGs, in line with its national policy targets. The land spared, particularly under the tax, is far less than proportional to the productivity increased. However, the tax, despite prompting less adoption of semi-intensive ranching, delivers slightly more forest sparing and GHG abatement than the subsidy. This difference is explained by increased deforestation associated with increased beef consumption under the subsidy and reduced deforestation associated with reduced beef consumption under the tax. Complementary policies to directly limit deforestation could help limit these effects. GHG abatement from either the tax or subsidy appears inexpensive but, over time, the tax would become cheaper than the subsidy. A revenue-neutral combination of the policies could be an element of a sustainable development strategy for Brazil and other emerging economies seeking to balance agricultural development and forest protection.

Representations of energy policy and technology in British and Finnish newspaper media: a comparative perspective

This article analyses media representations of the strengthening technological energy policy orientation in the UK and Finland. Drawing from over 1200 newspaper articles from 1991 to 2006, it scrutinises how energy policy in general and energy technologies in particular have been discussed by the media in these two countries, and how the media representations have changed over time. The results point to the importance of national political, economic and cultural features in shaping media discussions. At the same time, international political events and ideas of technology-driven economic growth have transformed media perceptions of energy technologies. While the British media have been rather critical towards national policies throughout the period of analysis, the Finnish newspaper Helsingin Sanomat has supported successive national governments. In both countries, energy technologies have increasingly become linked to global societal and political questions.

Dependence of hydropower energy generation on forests in the Amazon Basin at local and regional scales

Tropical rainforest regions have large hydropower generation potential that figures prominently in many nations' energy growth strategies. Feasibility studies of hydropower plants typically ignore the effect of future deforestation or assume that deforestation will have a positive effect on river discharge and energy generation resulting from declines in evapotranspiration (ET) associated with forest conversion. Forest loss can also reduce river discharge, however, by inhibiting rainfall. We used land use, hydrological, and climate models to examine the local "direct" effects (through changes in ET within the watershed) and the potential regional "indirect" effects (through changes in rainfall) of deforestation on river discharge and energy generation potential for the Belo Monte energy complex, one of the world's largest hydropower plants that is currently under construction on the Xingu River in the eastern Amazon. In the absence of indirect effects of deforestation, simulated deforestation of 20% and 40% within the Xingu River basin increased discharge by 4-8% and 10-12%, with similar increases in energy generation. When indirect effects were considered, deforestation of the Amazon region inhibited rainfall within the Xingu Basin, counterbalancing declines in ET and decreasing discharge by 6-36%. Under business-as-usual projections of forest loss for 2050 (40%), simulated power generation declined to only 25% of maximum plant output and 60% of the industry's own projections. Like other energy sources, hydropower plants present large social and environmental costs. Their reliability as energy sources, however, must take into account their dependence on forests.

Stabilization of atmospheric carbon dioxide via zero emissions--an alternative way to a stable global environment. Part 2: a practical zero-emissions scenario

Following Part 1, a comparison of CO(2)-emissions pathways between "zero-emissions stabilization (Z-stabilization)" and traditional stabilization is made under more realistic conditions that take into account the radiative forcings of other greenhouse gases and aerosols with the constraint that the temperature rise must not exceed 2 °C above the preindustrial level. It is shown that the findings in Part 1 on the merits of Z-stabilization hold under the more realistic conditions. The results clarify the scientific basis of the policy claim of 50% reduction of the world CO(2) emissions by 2050. Since the highest greenhouse gas (GHG) concentration and temperature occur only temporarily in Z-stabilization pathways, we may slightly relax the upper limit of the temperature rise. We can then search for a scenario with larger emissions in the 21st century; such a scenario may have potential for practical application. It is suggested that in this Z-stabilization pathway, larger emissions in the near future may be important from a socioeconomic viewpoint.

Socio-economic research in support of climate policy development: Mistra's Research Program Clipore

Mistra's Climate Policy Research Program, Clipore, is one of the largest research programs directed to support international climate policy development, involving research groups in Sweden, Norway, United States and India. It has been running from 2004 to 2011 with a budget of more than 100 MSEK (15 M USD). The paper briefly describes the program and its outcomes in relation to climate policy development. Discussion focuses on how the program has been able to be in the front of and include the development of emissions trading systems in Europe and the United States and how the program has been able to follow and produce inputs to the agenda of the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC). The paper also discusses how the program has managed to present its outcomes and maintain an active dialogue with the various stakeholders. The paper emphasises options and obstacles in the communication between science and policy.

A registry of nationally appropriate mitigation actions: goals, outcomes, and institutional requisites

This article examines key issues in operationalizing a registry of nationally appropriate mitigation actions (NAMAs) undertaken by developing countries party to the United Nations framework convention on climate change. It analyzes goals, outcomes, and institutional prerequisites underlying various proposals to determine how a NAMA mechanism could work in international climate cooperation. The different proposals for how NAMA shall be designed relate to three basic effort-sharing arrangements in a future climate regime: binding commitments for all Parties, purely voluntary commitments for all, and legally binding commitments for Annex I countries but voluntary ones for others. We conclude that a NAMA registry could be designed so as initially to suit all three types of effort-sharing regimes. The article identifies three areas of potential common ground in a registry irrespective of effort-sharing type: the principle of common but differentiated responsibilities, the sustainable development objectives of the Convention, and the need for a systemic transition toward low-carbon energy technologies.