Quantifying the effect of uncertainty in input parameters in a simplified bidomain model of partial thickness ischaemia

Extracellular Perinexal Separation Is a Principal Determinant of Cardiac Conduction

BACKGROUND

Cardiac conduction is understood to occur through gap junctions. Recent evidence supports ephaptic coupling as another mechanism of electrical communication in the heart. Conduction via gap junctions predicts a direct relationship between conduction velocity (CV) and bulk extracellular resistance. By contrast, ephaptic theory is premised on the existence of a biphasic relationship between CV and the volume of specialized extracellular clefts within intercalated discs such as the perinexus. Our objective was to determine the relationship between ventricular CV and structural changes to micro- and nanoscale extracellular spaces.

METHODS

Conduction and Cx43 (connexin43) protein expression were quantified from optically mapped guinea pig whole-heart preparations perfused with the osmotic agents albumin, mannitol, dextran 70 kDa, or dextran 2 MDa. Peak sodium current was quantified in isolated guinea pig ventricular myocytes. Extracellular resistance was quantified by impedance spectroscopy. Intercellular communication was assessed in a heterologous expression system with fluorescence recovery after photobleaching. Perinexal width was quantified from transmission electron micrographs.

RESULTS

CV primarily in the transverse direction of propagation was significantly reduced by mannitol and increased by albumin and both dextrans. The combination of albumin and dextran 70 kDa decreased CV relative to albumin alone. Extracellular resistance was reduced by mannitol, unchanged by albumin, and increased by both dextrans. Cx43 expression and conductance and peak sodium currents were not significantly altered by the osmotic agents. In response to osmotic agents, perinexal width, in order of narrowest to widest, was albumin with dextran 70 kDa; albumin or dextran 2 MDa; dextran 70 kDa or no osmotic agent, and mannitol. When compared in the same order, CV was biphasically related to perinexal width.

CONCLUSIONS

Cardiac conduction does not correlate with extracellular resistance but is biphasically related to perinexal separation, providing evidence that the relationship between CV and extracellular volume is determined by ephaptic mechanisms under conditions of normal gap junctional coupling.

Improving the accuracy of retrieved cardiac electrical conductivities

Accurate values for the six cardiac conductivities of the bidomain model are crucial for meaningful electrophysiological simulations of cardiac tissue and are yet to be achieved. A two-stage optimisation process is used to retrieve the cardiac conductivities from cardiac potentials measured on a multi-electrode array-the first stage simultaneously fits all six conductivities, and the second stage fits a subset of the conductivities (intracellular conductivities), while holding the remainder of the conductivities (extracellular conductivities) constant. Previous studies have shown that the intracellular conductivities are retrieved to a lesser degree of accuracy than extracellular conductivities. This study tests the proposition that there exists a relationship between the extracellular and intracellular conductivities during the second stage of the optimisation that affects the accuracy of the retrieved intracellular conductivities. A measure to quantify this relationship is developed using polynomial chaos. The results show that a significant relationship does exist, and thus any errors in the extracellular conductivities are magnified in the retrieved intracellular conductivities. Thus, it is suggested that future protocols for retrieving conductivities incorporate the uncertainty in the extracellular conductivities.

Which bidomain conductivity is the most important for modelling heart and torso surface potentials during ischaemia?

Mathematical simulations using the bidomain model, which represents cardiac tissue as consisting of an intracellular and an extracellular space, are a key approach that can be used to improve understanding of heart conditions such as ischaemia. However, key inputs to these models, such as the bidomain conductivity values, are not known with any certainty. Since efforts are underway to measure these values, it would be useful to be able to quantify the effect on model outputs of uncertainty in these inputs, and also to determine, if possible, which are the most important values to focus on in experimental studies. Our previous work has systematically studied the sensitivity of heart surface potentials to the bidomain conductivity values, and this was performed using a half-ellipsoidal model of the left ventricle. This study uses a bi-ventricular heart in a torso model and this time looks at the sensitivity of the torso surface potentials, as well as the heart surface potentials, to various conductivity values (blood, torso and the six bidomain conductivities). We found that both epicardial and torso potentials are the most sensitive to the intracellular longitudinal (along the cardiac fibres) conductivity (g_il) with more minor sensitivity to the torso conductivity, and that changes in g_il have a significant effect on the surface potential distributions on both the torso and the heart.

A modified approach to determine the six cardiac bidomain conductivities

Accurate values for the six cardiac bidomain conductivities are crucial for meaningful computational studies of conduction in cardiac tissue, and are yet to be determined by experimental means. Although previous studies have proposed an approach using a multi-electrode array to measure potentials, from which the conductivities can be determined, it has been found that the conductivities cannot be retrieved consistently when the noise in the potentials varies. This paper presents a protocol, which not only has been shown to retrieve the conductivities to a reasonable accuracy, but does so under the presence of a more appropriate additive Gaussian noise model, while using fewer computational resources. Through repetitions of the protocol, a comparison of two pre-fabricated 128 electrode arrays, one array with a square arrangement of electrodes and the other with a rectangular arrangement, was made against a 75-electrode array proposed in previous studies. Results indicated that the two pre-fabricated arrays were generally more capable of obtaining the cardiac conductivities to a higher degree of accuracy than the 75-electrode array. The 128-electrode rectangular array was orientated such that the length of the array first ran along the direction of the fibres, then was reorientated such that the length of the array ran perpendicular to the direction of the fibres. The 128-electrode rectangular array, when orientated in this manner, was more capable of retrieving the conductivities than the remainder of the arrays tested, and thus we suggest this arrangement be used during experimental trials.

Enabling forward uncertainty quantification and sensitivity analysis in cardiac electrophysiology by reduced order modeling and machine learning

We present a new, computationally efficient framework to perform forward uncertainty quantification (UQ) in cardiac electrophysiology. We consider the monodomain model to describe the electrical activity in the cardiac tissue, coupled with the Aliev-Panfilov model to characterize the ionic activity through the cell membrane. We address a complete forward UQ pipeline, including both: (i) a variance-based global sensitivity analysis for the selection of the most relevant input parameters, and (ii) a way to perform uncertainty propagation to investigate the impact of intra-subject variability on outputs of interest depending on the cardiac potential. Both tasks exploit stochastic sampling techniques, thus implying overwhelming computational costs because of the huge amount of queries to the high-fidelity, full-order computational model obtained by approximating the coupled monodomain/Aliev-Panfilov system through the finite element method. To mitigate this computational burden, we replace the full-order model with computationally inexpensive projection-based reduced-order models (ROMs) aimed at reducing the state-space dimensionality. Resulting approximation errors on the outputs of interest are finally taken into account through artificial neural network (ANN)-based models, enhancing the accuracy of the whole UQ pipeline. Numerical results show that the proposed physics-based ROMs outperform regression-based emulators relying on ANNs built with the same amount of training data, in terms of both numerical accuracy and overall computational efficiency.

Approaches for determining cardiac bidomain conductivity values: progress and challenges

Modelling the electrical activity of the heart is an important tool for understanding electrical function in various diseases and conduction disorders. Clearly, for model results to be useful, it is necessary to have accurate inputs for the models, in particular the commonly used bidomain model. However, there are only three sets of four experimentally determined conductivity values for cardiac ventricular tissue and these are inconsistent, were measured around 40 years ago, often produce different results in simulations and do not fully represent the three-dimensional anisotropic nature of cardiac tissue. Despite efforts in the intervening years, difficulties associated with making the measurements and also determining the conductivities from the experimental data have not yet been overcome. In this review, we summarise what is known about the conductivity values, as well as progress to date in meeting the challenges associated with both the mathematical modelling and the experimental techniques. Graphical abstract Epicardial potential distributions, arising from a subendocardial ischaemic region, modelled using conductivity data from the indicated studies.

Deep learning-based reduced order models in cardiac electrophysiology

Predicting the electrical behavior of the heart, from the cellular scale to the tissue level, relies on the numerical approximation of coupled nonlinear dynamical systems. These systems describe the cardiac action potential, that is the polarization/depolarization cycle occurring at every heart beat that models the time evolution of the electrical potential across the cell membrane, as well as a set of ionic variables. Multiple solutions of these systems, corresponding to different model inputs, are required to evaluate outputs of clinical interest, such as activation maps and action potential duration. More importantly, these models feature coherent structures that propagate over time, such as wavefronts. These systems can hardly be reduced to lower dimensional problems by conventional reduced order models (ROMs) such as, e.g., the reduced basis method. This is primarily due to the low regularity of the solution manifold (with respect to the problem parameters), as well as to the nonlinear nature of the input-output maps that we intend to reconstruct numerically. To overcome this difficulty, in this paper we propose a new, nonlinear approach relying on deep learning (DL) algorithms—such as deep feedforward neural networks and convolutional autoencoders—to obtain accurate and efficient ROMs, whose dimensionality matches the number of system parameters. We show that the proposed DL-ROM framework can efficiently provide solutions to parametrized electrophysiology problems, thus enabling multi-scenario analysis in pathological cases. We investigate four challenging test cases in cardiac electrophysiology, thus demonstrating that DL-ROM outperforms classical projection-based ROMs.

Sensitivity and Uncertainty Analysis of Two Human Atrial Cardiac Cell Models Using Gaussian Process Emulators

Biophysically detailed cardiac cell models reconstruct the action potential and calcium dynamics of cardiac myocytes. They aim to capture the biophysics of current flow through ion channels, pumps, and exchangers in the cell membrane, and are highly detailed. However, the relationship between model parameters and model outputs is difficult to establish because the models are both complex and non-linear. The consequences of uncertainty and variability in model parameters are therefore difficult to determine without undertaking large numbers of model evaluations. The aim of the present study was to demonstrate how sensitivity and uncertainty analysis using Gaussian process emulators can be used for a systematic and quantitive analysis of biophysically detailed cardiac cell models. We selected the Courtemanche and Maleckar models of the human atrial action potential for analysis because these models describe a similar set of currents, with different formulations. In our approach Gaussian processes emulate the main features of the action potential and calcium transient. The emulators were trained with a set of design data comprising samples from parameter space and corresponding model outputs, initially obtained from 300 model evaluations. Variance based sensitivity indices were calculated using the emulators, and first order and total effect indices were calculated for each combination of parameter and output. The differences between the first order and total effect indices indicated that the effect of interactions between parameters was small. A second set of emulators were then trained using a new set of design data with a subset of the model parameters with a sensitivity index of more than 0.1 (10%). This second stage analysis enabled comparison of mechanisms in the two models. The second stage sensitivity indices enabled the relationship between the L-type Ca 2+ current and the action potential plateau to be quantified in each model. Our quantitative analysis predicted that changes in maximum conductance of the ultra-rapid K + channel I Kur would have opposite effects on action potential duration in the two models, and this prediction was confirmed by additional simulations. This study has demonstrated that Gaussian process emulators are an effective tool for sensitivity and uncertainty analysis of biophysically detailed cardiac cell models.

Quantifying atrial anatomy uncertainty from clinical data and its impact on electro-physiology simulation predictions

Patient-specific computational models of structure and function are increasingly being used to diagnose disease and predict how a patient will respond to therapy. Models of anatomy are often derived after segmentation of clinical images or from mapping systems which are affected by image artefacts, resolution and contrast. Quantifying the impact of uncertain anatomy on model predictions is important, as models are increasingly used in clinical practice where decisions need to be made regardless of image quality. We use a Bayesian probabilistic approach to estimate the anatomy and to quantify the uncertainty about the shape of the left atrium derived from Cardiac Magnetic Resonance images. We show that we can quantify uncertain shape, encode uncertainty about the left atrial shape due to imaging artefacts, and quantify the effect of uncertain shape on simulations of left atrial activation times.

Differences between models of partial thickness and subendocardial ischaemia in terms of sensitivity analyses of ST-segment epicardial potential distributions

Mathematical modelling is a useful technique to help elucidate the connection between non-transmural ischaemia and ST elevation and depression of the ECG. Generally, models represent non-transmural ischaemia using an ischaemic zone that extends from the endocardium partway to the epicardium. However, recent experimental work has suggested that ischaemia typically arises within the heart wall. This work examines the effect of modelling cardiac ischaemia in the left ventricle using two different models: subendocardial ischaemia and partial thickness ischaemia, representing the first and second scenarios, respectively. We found that it is possible, only in the model of subendocardial ischaemia, to see a single minimum on the epicardial surface above the ischaemic region, and this only occurs for low ischaemic thicknesses. This may help to explain the rarity of ST depression that is located over the ischaemic region. It was also found that, in both models, the epicardial potential distribution is most sensitive to the proximity of the ischaemic region to the epicardium, rather than to the thickness of the ischaemic region. Since proximity does not indicate the thickness of the ischaemic region, this suggests a reason why it may be difficult to determine the degree of ischaemia using the ST segment of the ECG.

Personalized Cardiac Computational Models: From Clinical Data to Simulation of Infarct-Related Ventricular Tachycardia

In the chronic stage of myocardial infarction, a significant number of patients develop life-threatening ventricular tachycardias (VT) due to the arrhythmogenic nature of the remodeled myocardium. Radiofrequency ablation (RFA) is a common procedure to isolate reentry pathways across the infarct scar that are responsible for VT. Unfortunately, this strategy show relatively low success rates; up to 50% of patients experience recurrent VT after the procedure. In the last decade, intensive research in the field of computational cardiac electrophysiology (EP) has demonstrated the ability of three-dimensional (3D) cardiac computational models to perform in-silico EP studies. However, the personalization and modeling of certain key components remain challenging, particularly in the case of the infarct border zone (BZ). In this study, we used a clinical dataset from a patient with a history of infarct-related VT to build an image-based 3D ventricular model aimed at computational simulation of cardiac EP, including detailed patient-specific cardiac anatomy and infarct scar geometry. We modeled the BZ in eight different ways by combining the presence or absence of electrical remodeling with four different levels of image-based patchy fibrosis (0, 10, 20, and 30%). A 3D torso model was also constructed to compute the ECG. Patient-specific sinus activation patterns were simulated and validated against the patient's ECG. Subsequently, the pacing protocol used to induce reentrant VTs in the EP laboratory was reproduced in-silico. The clinical VT was induced with different versions of the model and from different pacing points, thus identifying the slow conducting channel responsible for such VT. Finally, the real patient's ECG recorded during VT episodes was used to validate our simulation results and to assess different strategies to model the BZ. Our study showed that reduced conduction velocities and heterogeneity in action potential duration in the BZ are the main factors in promoting reentrant activity. Either electrical remodeling or fibrosis in a degree of at least 30% in the BZ were required to initiate VT. Moreover, this proof-of-concept study confirms the feasibility of developing 3D computational models for cardiac EP able to reproduce cardiac activation in sinus rhythm and during VT, using exclusively non-invasive clinical data.

Computational models in cardiology

The treatment of individual patients in cardiology practice increasingly relies on advanced imaging, genetic screening and devices. As the amount of imaging and other diagnostic data increases, paralleled by the greater capacity to personalize treatment, the difficulty of using the full array of measurements of a patient to determine an optimal treatment seems also to be paradoxically increasing. Computational models are progressively addressing this issue by providing a common framework for integrating multiple data sets from individual patients. These models, which are based on physiology and physics rather than on population statistics, enable computational simulations to reveal diagnostic information that would have otherwise remained concealed and to predict treatment outcomes for individual patients. The inherent need for patient-specific models in cardiology is clear and is driving the rapid development of tools and techniques for creating personalized methods to guide pharmaceutical therapy, deployment of devices and surgical interventions.

Slow Recovery of Excitability Increases Ventricular Fibrillation Risk as Identified by Emulation

Purpose: Rotor stability and meandering are key mechanisms determining and sustaining cardiac fibrillation, with important implications for anti-arrhythmic drug development. However, little is yet known on how rotor dynamics are modulated by variability in cellular electrophysiology, particularly on kinetic properties of ion channel recovery.

Methods: We propose a novel emulation approach, based on Gaussian process regression augmented with machine learning, for data enrichment, automatic detection, classification, and analysis of re-entrant biomarkers in cardiac tissue. More than 5,000 monodomain simulations of long-lasting arrhythmic episodes with Fenton-Karma ionic dynamics, further enriched by emulation to 80 million electrophysiological scenarios, were conducted to investigate the role of variability in ion channel densities and kinetics in modulating rotor-driven arrhythmic behavior.

Results: Our methods predicted the class of excitation behavior with classification accuracy up to 96%, and emulation effectively predicted frequency, stability, and spatial biomarkers of functional re-entry. We demonstrate that the excitation wavelength interpretation of re-entrant behavior hides critical information about rotor persistence and devolution into fibrillation. In particular, whereas action potential duration directly modulates rotor frequency and meandering, critical windows of excitability are identified as the main determinants of breakup. Further novel electrophysiological insights of particular relevance for ventricular arrhythmias arise from our multivariate analysis, including the role of incomplete activation of slow inward currents in mediating tissue rate-dependence and dispersion of repolarization, and the emergence of slow recovery of excitability as a significant promoter of this mechanism of dispersion and increased arrhythmic risk.

Conclusions: Our results mechanistically explain pro-arrhythmic effects of class Ic anti-arrhythmics in the ventricles despite their established role in the pharmacological management of atrial fibrillation. This is mediated by their slow recovery of excitability mode of action, promoting incomplete activation of slow inward currents and therefore increased dispersion of repolarization, given the larger influence of these currents in modulating the action potential in the ventricles compared to the atria. These results exemplify the potential of emulation techniques in elucidating novel mechanisms of arrhythmia and further application to cardiac electrophysiology.

Quantifying the uncertainty in model parameters using Gaussian process-based Markov chain Monte Carlo in cardiac electrophysiology

Model personalization requires the estimation of patient-specific tissue properties in the form of model parameters from indirect and sparse measurement data. Moreover, a low-dimensional representation of the parameter space is needed, which often has a limited ability to reveal the underlying tissue heterogeneity. As a result, significant uncertainty can be associated with the estimated values of the model parameters which, if left unquantified, will lead to unknown variability in model outputs that will hinder their reliable clinical adoption. Probabilistic estimation of model parameters, however, remains an unresolved challenge. Direct Markov Chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) sampling of the posterior distribution function (pdf) of the parameters is infeasible because it involves repeated evaluations of the computationally expensive simulation model. To accelerate this inference, one popular approach is to construct a computationally efficient surrogate and sample from this approximation. However, by sampling from an approximation, efficiency is gained at the expense of sampling accuracy. In this paper, we address this issue by integrating surrogate modeling of the posterior pdf into accelerating the Metropolis-Hastings (MH) sampling of the exact posterior pdf. It is achieved by two main components: (1) construction of a Gaussian process (GP) surrogate of the exact posterior pdf by actively selecting training points that allow for a good global approximation accuracy with a focus on the regions of high posterior probability; and (2) use of the GP surrogate to improve the proposal distribution in MH sampling, in order to improve the acceptance rate. The presented framework is evaluated in its estimation of the local tissue excitability of a cardiac electrophysiological model in both synthetic data experiments and real data experiments. In addition, the obtained posterior distributions of model parameters are interpreted in relation to the factors contributing to parameter uncertainty, including different low-dimensional representations of the parameter space, parameter non-identifiability, and parameter correlations.