Length of hospital stay prediction with an integrated approach of statistical-based fuzzy cognitive maps and artificial neural networks

Fuzzy Cognitive Map Applications in Medicine over the Last Two Decades: A Review Study

Fuzzy Cognitive Maps (FCMs) have become an invaluable tool for healthcare providers because they can capture intricate associations among variables and generate precise predictions. FCMs have demonstrated their utility in diverse medical applications, from disease diagnosis to treatment planning and prognosis prediction. Their ability to model complex relationships between symptoms, biomarkers, risk factors, and treatments has enabled healthcare providers to make informed decisions, leading to better patient outcomes. This review article provides a thorough synopsis of using FCMs within the medical domain. A systematic examination of pertinent literature spanning the last two decades forms the basis of this overview, specifically delineating the diverse applications of FCMs in medical realms, including decision-making, diagnosis, prognosis, treatment optimisation, risk assessment, and pharmacovigilance. The limitations inherent in FCMs are also scrutinised, and avenues for potential future research and application are explored.

Supervised machine learning algorithms to predict the duration and risk of long-term hospitalization in HIV-infected individuals: a retrospective study

Objective

The study aimed to use supervised machine learning models to predict the length and risk of prolonged hospitalization in PLWHs to help physicians timely clinical intervention and avoid waste of health resources.

Methods

Regression models were established based on RF, KNN, SVM, and XGB to predict the length of hospital stay using RMSE, MAE, MAPE, and R2, while classification models were established based on RF, KNN, SVM, NN, and XGB to predict risk of prolonged hospital stay using accuracy, PPV, NPV, specificity, sensitivity, and kappa, and visualization evaluation based on AUROC, AUPRC, calibration curves and decision curves of all models were used for internally validation.

Results

In regression models, XGB model performed best in the internal validation (RMSE = 16.81, MAE = 10.39, MAPE = 0.98, R2 = 0.47) to predict the length of hospital stay, while in classification models, NN model presented good fitting and stable features and performed best in testing sets, with excellent accuracy (0.7623), PPV (0.7853), NPV (0.7092), sensitivity (0.8754), specificity (0.5882), and kappa (0.4672), and further visualization evaluation indicated that the largest AUROC (0.9779), AUPRC (0.773) and well-performed calibration curve and decision curve in the internal validation.

Conclusion

This study showed that XGB model was effective in predicting the length of hospital stay, while NN model was effective in predicting the risk of prolonged hospitalization in PLWH. Based on predictive models, an intelligent medical prediction system may be developed to effectively predict the length of stay and risk of HIV patients according to their medical records, which helped reduce the waste of healthcare resources.

A deep learning approach for inpatient length of stay and mortality prediction

PURPOSE

Accurate prediction of the Length of Stay (LoS) and mortality in the Intensive Care Unit (ICU) is crucial for effective hospital management, and it can assist clinicians for real-time demand capacity (RTDC) administration, thereby improving healthcare quality and service levels.

METHODS

This paper proposes a novel one-dimensional (1D) multi-scale convolutional neural network architecture, namely 1D-MSNet, to predict inpatients' LoS and mortality in ICU. First, a 1D multi-scale convolution framework is proposed to enlarge the convolutional receptive fields and enhance the richness of the convolutional features. Following the convolutional layers, an atrous causal spatial pyramid pooling (SPP) module is incorporated into the networks to extract high-level features. The optimized Focal Loss (FL) function is combined with the synthetic minority over-sampling technique (SMOTE) to mitigate the imbalanced-class issue.

RESULTS

On the MIMIC-IV v1.0 benchmark dataset, the proposed approach achieves the optimum R-Square and RMSE values of 0.57 and 3.61 for the LoS prediction, and the highest test accuracy of 97.73% for the mortality prediction.

CONCLUSION

The proposed approach presents a superior performance in comparison with other state-of-the-art, and it can effectively perform the LoS and mortality prediction tasks.

Towards Predicting Length of Stay and Identification of Cohort Risk Factors Using Self-Attention-Based Transformers and Association Mining: COVID-19 as a Phenotype

Predicting length of stay (LoS) and understanding its underlying factors is essential to minimizing the risk of hospital-acquired conditions, improving financial, operational, and clinical outcomes, and better managing future pandemics. The purpose of this study was to forecast patients' LoS using a deep learning model and to analyze cohorts of risk factors reducing or prolonging LoS. We employed various preprocessing techniques, SMOTE-N to balance data, and a TabTransformer model to forecast LoS. Finally, the Apriori algorithm was applied to analyze cohorts of risk factors influencing hospital LoS. The TabTransformer outperformed the base machine learning models in terms of F1 score (0.92), precision (0.83), recall (0.93), and accuracy (0.73) for the discharged dataset and F1 score (0.84), precision (0.75), recall (0.98), and accuracy (0.77) for the deceased dataset. The association mining algorithm was able to identify significant risk factors/indicators belonging to laboratory, X-ray, and clinical data, such as elevated LDH and D-dimer levels, lymphocyte count, and comorbidities such as hypertension and diabetes. It also reveals what treatments have reduced the symptoms of COVID-19 patients, leading to a reduction in LoS, particularly when no vaccines or medication, such as Paxlovid, were available.

Time-to-event modeling for hospital length of stay prediction for COVID-19 patients

Providing timely patient care while maintaining optimal resource utilization is one of the central operational challenges hospitals have been facing throughout the pandemic. Hospital length of stay (LOS) is an important indicator of hospital efficiency, quality of patient care, and operational resilience. Numerous researchers have developed regression or classification models to predict LOS. However, conventional models suffer from the lack of capability to make use of typically censored clinical data. We propose to use time-to-event modeling techniques, also known as survival analysis, to predict the LOS for patients based on individualized information collected from multiple sources. The performance of six proposed survival models is evaluated and compared based on clinical data from COVID-19 patients.

Machine Learning and Regression Analysis to Model the Length of Hospital Stay in Patients with Femur Fracture

Fractures of the femur are a frequent problem in elderly people, and it has been demonstrated that treating them with a diagnostic–therapeutic–assistance path within 48 h of admission to the hospital reduces complications and shortens the length of the hospital stay (LOS). In this paper, the preoperative data of 1082 patients were used to further extend the previous research and to generate several models that are capable of predicting the overall LOS: First, the LOS, measured in days, was predicted through a regression analysis; then, it was grouped by weeks and was predicted with a classification analysis. The KNIME analytics platform was applied to divide the dataset for a hold-out cross-validation, perform a multiple linear regression and implement machine learning algorithms. The best coefficient of determination (R²) was achieved by the support vector machine (R² = 0.617), while the mean absolute error was similar for all the algorithms, ranging between 2.00 and 2.11 days. With regard to the classification analysis, all the algorithms surpassed 80% accuracy, and the most accurate algorithm was the radial basis function network, at 83.5%. The use of these techniques could be a valuable support tool for doctors to better manage orthopaedic departments and all their resources, which would reduce both waste and costs in the context of healthcare.