A Structured Avian Influenza Model with Imperfect Vaccination and Vaccine-Induced Asymptomatic Infection

Comparative analysis and prediction of avian influenza in Shangrao city, China from 2016 to 2022

The aim of this study was to investigate the effects of vaccination, COVID-19 pandemic and migration of migratory birds on the avian influenza positivity rate in Shangrao City and to predict the future avian influenza positivity rate. Real-time reverse transcription polymerase chain reaction (RT-PCR) was used to detect nucleic acids of avian influenza A viruses. 1795 samples were collected between 2016 and 2022, of which 1086 were positive. In addition, there were seven human cases of avian influenza. The results showed that the positivity rate of H9 subtype in Shangrao City was higher than usual during the COVID-19 pandemic and migratory birds. Predictions suggest that the H9 subtype positivity rate in Shangrao City will be on the rise in the future. In recent years, the H5 positivity rate has gradually increased. Migratory birds and the COVID-19 pandemic have led to an increase in H9 subtype positivity. Therefore, the prevention and control of them should be strengthened.

Vaccination of Poultry Against Influenza

The complexity of influenza A virus (IAV) infections in avian hosts leads to equally complex scenarios for the vaccination of poultry. Vaccination against avian influenza strains can be used to prevent infections from sources with a single strain of IAV. It has been used as a part of outbreak control strategies as well as a way to maintain production for both low and high pathogenicity outbreaks. Unlike other viral pathogens of birds, avian influenza vaccination when used against highly pathogenic avian influenza virus, is tied to international trade and thus is not freely available for use without specific permission.

Epidemiology-driven approaches to surveillance in HPAI-vaccinated poultry flocks aiming to demonstrate freedom from circulating HPAIV

Incursion pressure of high pathogenicity avian influenza viruses (HPAIV) by secondary spread among poultry holdings and/or from infected migratory wild bird populations increases worldwide. Vaccination as an additional layer of protection of poultry holdings using appropriately matched vaccines aims at reducing clinical sequelae of HPAIV infection, disrupting HPAIV transmission, curtailing economic losses and animal welfare problems and cutting exposure risks of zoonotic HPAIV at the avian-human interface. Products derived from HPAIV-vaccinated poultry should not impose any risk of virus spread or exposure. Vaccination can be carried out with zero-tolerance for infection in vaccinated herds and must then be flanked by appropriate surveillance which requires tailoring at several levels: (i) Controlling appropriate vaccination coverage and adequate population immunity in individual flocks and across vaccinated populations; (ii) assessing HPAI-infection trends in unvaccinated and vaccinated parts of the poultry population to provide early detection of new/re-emerged HPAIV outbreaks; and (iii) proving absence of HPAIV circulation in vaccinated flocks ideally by real time-monitoring. Surveillance strategies, i.e. selecting targets, tools and random sample sizes, must be accommodated to the specific epidemiologic and socio-economic background. Methodological approaches and practical examples from three countries or territories applying AI vaccination under different circumstances are reviewed here.

Positive biofilms to guide surface microbial ecology in livestock buildings

The increase in human consumption of animal proteins implies changes in the management of meat production. This is followed by increasingly restrictive regulations on antimicrobial products such as chemical biocides and antibiotics, used in particular to control pathogens that can spread zoonotic diseases. Aligned with the One Health concept, alternative biological solutions are under development and are starting to be used in animal production. Beneficial bacteria able to form positive biofilms and guide surface microbial ecology to limit microbial pathogen settlement are promising tools that could complement existing biosecurity practices to maintain the hygiene of livestock buildings. Although the benefits of positive biofilms have already been documented, the associated fundamental mechanisms and the rationale of the microbial composition of these new products are still sparce. This review provides an overview of the envisioned modes of action of positive biofilms used on livestock building surfaces and the resulting criteria for the selection of the appropriate microorganisms for this specific application. Limits and advantages of this biosecurity approach are discussed as well as the impact of such practices along the food chain, from farm to fork.

Modeling the Impact of the Imperfect Vaccination of the COVID-19 with Optimal Containment Strategy

Since the beginning of the COVID-19 pandemic, vaccination has been the main strategy to contain the spread of the coronavirus. However, with the administration of many types of vaccines and the constant mutation of viruses, the issue of how effective these vaccines are in protecting the population is raised. This work aimed to present a mathematical model that investigates the imperfect vaccine and finds the additional measures needed to help reduce the burden of disease. We determine the R0 threshold of disease spread and use stability analysis to determine the condition that will result in disease eradication. We also fitted our model to COVID-19 data from Morocco to estimate the parameters of the model. The sensitivity analysis of the basic reproduction number, with respect to the parameters of the model, is simulated for the four possible scenarios of the disease progress. Finally, we investigate the optimal containment measures that could be implemented with vaccination. To illustrate our results, we perform the numerical simulations of optimal control.

Evaluation of Baloxavir Marboxil and Peramivir for the Treatment of High Pathogenicity Avian Influenza in Chickens

Control measures in the case of high pathogenicity avian influenza (HPAI) outbreaks in poultry include culling, surveillance, and biosecurity; wild birds in captivity may also be culled, although some rare bird species should be rescued for conservation. In this study, two anti-influenza drugs, baloxavir marboxil (BXM) and peramivir (PR), used in humans, were examined in treating HPAI in birds, using chickens as a model. Chickens were infected with H5N6 HPAI virus and were treated immediately or 24 h from challenge with 20 mg/kg BXM or PR twice a day for five days. As per our findings, BXM significantly reduced virus replication in organs and provided full protection to chickens compared with that induced by PR. In the 24-h-delayed treatment, neither drug completely inhibited virus replication nor ensured the survival of infected chickens. A single administration of 2.5 mg/kg of BXM was determined as the minimum dose required to fully protect chickens from HPAI virus; the concentration of baloxavir acid, the active form of BXM, in chicken blood at this dose was sufficient for a 48 h antiviral effect post-administration. Thus, these data can be a starting point for the use of BXM and PR in treating captive wild birds infected with HPAI virus.

Theoretical and numerical results for an age-structured SIVS model with a general nonlinear incidence rate

In this paper, we propose an SIVS epidemic model with continuous age structures in both infected and vaccinated classes and with a general nonlinear incidence. Firstly, we provide some basic properties of the system including the existence, uniqueness and positivity of solutions. Furthermore, we show that the solution semiflow is asymptotic smooth. Secondly, we calculate the basic reproduction number [Formula: see text] by employing the classical renewal process, which determines whether the disease persists or not. In the main part, we investigate the global stability of the equilibria by the approach of Lyanpunov functionals. Some numerical simulations are conducted to illustrate the theoretical results and to show the effect of the transmission rate and immunity waning rate on the disease prevalence.

Global dynamics of a mathematical model for the possible re-emergence of polio

Motivated by studies warning about a possible re-emergence of poliomyelitis in Europe, we analyse a compartmental model for the transmission of polio describing the possible effect of unvaccinated people arriving to a region with low vaccination coverage. We calculate the basic reproduction number, and determine the global dynamics of the system: we show that, depending on the parameters, one of the two equilibria is globally asymptotically stable. The main tools applied are Lyapunov functions and persistence theory. We illustrate the analytic results by numerical examples, which also suggest that in order to avoid the risk of polio re-emergence, vaccinating the immigrant population might result insufficient, and also the vaccination coverage of countries with low rates should be increased.

A note on an age-of-infection SVIR model with nonlinear incidence

In this paper, nonlinear incidence rate is incorporated into an age-of-infection SVIR epidemiological model. By the method of Lyapunov functionals, it is shown that the basic reproduction number [Formula: see text] of the model is a threshold parameter in the sense that if [Formula: see text], the disease dies out, while if [Formula: see text], the disease persists.

Global dynamics and optimal control of an influenza model with vaccination, media coverage and treatment

In this work, in order to identify the most effective measure and combinations of several measures to control influenza spread, we propose an SVEIAR influenza model with imperfect vaccination, media coverage and antiviral treatment. The global dynamics of the model is explored. Sensitivity analysis of the basic reproduction number and the endemic equilibrium is conducted to evaluate the effectiveness of influenza control measures. Furthermore, an optimal control problem incorporating the three measures is formulated to design optimal control strategies for influenza. The cost-effectiveness analysis reveals that combining the three measures is the most cost-effective among the strategies considered. Numerical simulations show that media propaganda can play a dominant role in curbing influenza transmission.

Optimal treatment strategy of an avian influenza model with latency

Avian influenza, caused by influenza A viruses, has received worldwide attention over recent years. In this study, we formulate a mathematical model for avian influenza that includes human–human transmission and incorporates the effects of infection latency and treatments. We investigate the essential dynamics of the model through an equilibrium analysis. Meanwhile, we explore effective treatment strategies to control avian influenza outbreaks using optimal control theory. Our results show that strategically deployed medical treatments can significantly reduce the numbers of exposed and infection persons.

Vector-Borne Pathogen and Host Evolution in a Structured Immuno-Epidemiological System

Vector-borne disease transmission is a common dissemination mode used by many pathogens to spread in a host population. Similar to directly transmitted diseases, the within-host interaction of a vector-borne pathogen and a host's immune system influences the pathogen's transmission potential between hosts via vectors. Yet there are few theoretical studies on virulence-transmission trade-offs and evolution in vector-borne pathogen-host systems. Here, we consider an immuno-epidemiological model that links the within-host dynamics to between-host circulation of a vector-borne disease. On the immunological scale, the model mimics antibody-pathogen dynamics for arbovirus diseases, such as Rift Valley fever and West Nile virus. The within-host dynamics govern transmission and host mortality and recovery in an age-since-infection structured host-vector-borne pathogen epidemic model. By considering multiple pathogen strains and multiple competing host populations differing in their within-host replication rate and immune response parameters, respectively, we derive evolutionary optimization principles for both pathogen and host. Invasion analysis shows that the [Formula: see text] maximization principle holds for the vector-borne pathogen. For the host, we prove that evolution favors minimizing case fatality ratio (CFR). These results are utilized to compute host and pathogen evolutionary trajectories and to determine how model parameters affect evolution outcomes. We find that increasing the vector inoculum size increases the pathogen [Formula: see text], but can either increase or decrease the pathogen virulence (the host CFR), suggesting that vector inoculum size can contribute to virulence of vector-borne diseases in distinct ways.

Modeling the trade-off between transmissibility and contact in infectious disease dynamics

Symptom severity affects disease transmission both by impacting contact rates, as well as by influencing the probability of transmission given contact. This involves a trade-off between these two factors, as increased symptom severity will tend to decrease contact rates, but increase the probability of transmission given contact (as pathogen shedding rates increase with symptom severity). This paper explores this trade-off between contact and transmission given contact, using a simple compartmental susceptible-infected-recovered type model. Under mild assumptions on how contact and transmission probability vary with symptom severity, we give sufficient, biologically intuitive criteria for when the basic reproduction number varies non-monotonically with symptom severity. Multiple critical points are possible. We give a complete characterization of the region in parameter space where multiple critical points are located in the special case where contact rate decreases exponentially with symptom severity. We consider a multi-strain version of the model with complete cross-immunity and no super-infection. In this model, we prove that the strain with highest basic reproduction number drives the other strains to extinction. This has both evolutionary and epidemiological implications, including the possibility of an intervention paradoxically resulting in increased infection prevalence.

Global threshold dynamics of an SIVS model with waning vaccine-induced immunity and nonlinear incidence

Vaccination is the most effective method of preventing the spread of infectious diseases. For many diseases, vaccine-induced immunity is not life long and the duration of immunity is not always fixed. In this paper, we propose an SIVS model taking the waning of vaccine-induced immunity and general nonlinear incidence into consideration. Our analysis shows that the model exhibits global threshold dynamics in the sense that if the basic reproduction number is less than 1, then the disease-free equilibrium is globally asymptotically stable implying the disease dies out; while if the basic reproduction number is larger than 1, then the endemic equilibrium is globally asymptotically stable indicating that the disease persists. This global threshold result indicates that if the vaccination coverage rate is below a critical value, then the disease always persists and only if the vaccination coverage rate is above the critical value, the disease can be eradicated.