Theory of the transmission of infection in the spread of epidemics: interacting random walkers with and without confinement

Analysis of Transmission of Infection in Epidemics: Confined Random Walkers in Dimensions Higher Than One

The process of transmission of infection in epidemics is analyzed by studying a pair of random walkers, the motion of each of which in two dimensions is confined spatially by the action of a quadratic potential centered at different locations for the two walks. The walkers are animals such as rodents in considerations of the Hantavirus epidemic, infected or susceptible. In this reaction-diffusion study, the reaction is the transmission of infection, and the confining potential represents the tendency of the animals to stay in the neighborhood of their home range centers. Calculations are based on a recently developed formalism (Kenkre and Sugaya in Bull Math Biol 76:3016-3027, 2014) structured around analytic solutions of a Smoluchowski equation and one of its aims is the resolution of peculiar but well-known problems of reaction-diffusion theory in two dimensions. The resolution is essential to a realistic application to field observations because the terrain over which the rodents move is best represented as a 2-d landscape. In the present analysis, reaction occurs not at points but in spatial regions of dimensions larger than 0. The analysis uncovers interesting nonintuitive phenomena one of which is similar to that encountered in the one-dimensional analysis given in the quoted article, and another specific to the fact that the reaction region is spatially extended. The analysis additionally provides a realistic description of observations on animals transmitting infection while moving on what is effectively a two-dimensional landscape. Along with the general formalism and explicit one-dimensional analysis given in Kenkre and Sugaya (2014), the present work forms a model calculational tool for the analysis for the transmission of infection in dilute systems.

Analysis of Confined Random Walkers with Applications to Processes Occurring in Molecular Aggregates and Immunological Systems

Explicit solutions are presented in the Laplace and time domains for a one-variable Fokker-Planck equation governing the probability density of a random walker moving in a confining potential. Illustrative applications are discussed in two unrelated physical contexts: quantum yields in a doped molecular crystal or photosynthetic system, and the motion of signal receptor clusters on the surface of a cell encountered in a problem in immunology. An interesting counterintuitive effect concerning the consequences of confinement is found in the former, and some insights into the driving force for microcluster centralization are gathered in the latter application.

Coupled effects of local movement and global interaction on contagion

By incorporating segregated spatial domain and individual-based linkage into the SIS (susceptible-infected-susceptible) model, we propose a generalized epidemic model which can change from the territorial epidemic model to the networked epidemic model. The role of the individual-based linkage between different spatial domains is investigated. As we adjust the timescale parameter τ from 0 to unity, which represents the degree of activation of the individual-based linkage, three regions are found. Within the region of 0 < τ < 0.02 , the epidemic is determined by local movement and is sensitive to the timescale τ . Within the region of 0.02 < τ < 0.5 , the epidemic is insensitive to the timescale τ . Within the region of 0.5 < τ < 1 , the outbreak of the epidemic is determined by the structure of the individual-based linkage. As we keep an eye on the first region, the role of activating the individual-based linkage in the present model is similar to the role of the shortcuts in the two-dimensional small world network. Only activating a small number of the individual-based linkage can prompt the outbreak of the epidemic globally. The role of narrowing segregated spatial domain and reducing mobility in epidemic control is checked. These two measures are found to be conducive to curbing the spread of infectious disease only when the global interaction is suppressed. A log-log relation between the change in the number of infected individuals and the timescale τ is found. By calculating the epidemic threshold and the mean first encounter time, we heuristically analyze the microscopic characteristics of the propagation of the epidemic in the present model.

Consequences of animal interactions on their dynamics: emergence of home ranges and territoriality

Animal spacing has important implications for population abundance, species demography and the environment. Mechanisms underlying spatial segregation have their roots in the characteristics of the animals, their mutual interaction and their response, collective as well as individual, to environmental variables. This review describes how the combination of these factors shapes the patterns we observe and presents a practical, usable framework for the analysis of movement data in confined spaces. The basis of the framework is the theory of interacting random walks and the mathematical description of out-of-equilibrium systems. Although our focus is on modelling and interpreting animal home ranges and territories in vertebrates, we believe further studies on invertebrates may also help to answer questions and resolve unanswered puzzles that are still inaccessible to experimental investigation in vertebrate species.