Exact Variance-Reduced Simulation of Lattice Continuous-Time Markov Chains with Applications in Reaction Networks

Markov Chain Models for Cardiac Rhythm Dynamics in Patients Undergoing Catheter Ablation of Atrial Fibrillation

We have developed a novel Markov Chain modeling system that considers vectors of patients with atrial fibrillation (AF) by their AF status over a period of time. Our model examines the impact of catheter ablation of AF upon the dynamics of a patient's AF status and their potential return to sinus rhythm. We prove several theorems to determine the probabilities of patients achieving sinus rhythm or progressing to permanent AF. Additionally, we observed aggregation of patients within the paroxysmal AF state in simulation. The aggregating property of Markov chains illustrated the potential benefits of catheter ablation on healthcare resource allocation.