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Liu CF, Hurwitz JL, Krahn AD, Ellenbogen KA, Slotwiner DJ, Schoenfeld MH, Pelosi F, Mainigi SK, Berman AE, Rashba EJ, Hao S, Sachdev M, Larsen TR, Tsai S, Miller L, Smith AM, Shanker AJ. Heart Rhythm Society's survey assessing same-day discharge after electrophysiology procedures and implementation in ambulatory surgical centers. Heart Rhythm 2024:S1547-5271(24)02307-5. [PMID: 38574785 DOI: 10.1016/j.hrthm.2024.03.1812] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [What about the content of this article? (0)] [Affiliation(s)] [Key Words] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Submit a Manuscript] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 03/25/2024] [Revised: 03/26/2024] [Accepted: 03/29/2024] [Indexed: 04/06/2024]
Affiliation(s)
| | | | - Andrew D Krahn
- University of British Columbia, Vancouver, British Columbia, Canada
| | | | | | | | - Frank Pelosi
- University of Michigan School of Medicine, Ann Arbor, Michigan
| | | | | | - Eric J Rashba
- Stony Brook University Medical Center, Stony Brook, New York
| | - Steven Hao
- Sutter Health, San Francisco, California
| | - Molly Sachdev
- Washington University School of Medicine, St Louis, Missouri
| | | | - Shane Tsai
- University of Nebraska Medical Center, Omaha, Nebraska
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Schumacher AE, Kyu HH, Aali A, Abbafati C, Abbas J, Abbasgholizadeh R, Abbasi MA, Abbasian M, Abd ElHafeez S, Abdelmasseh M, Abd-Elsalam S, Abdelwahab A, Abdollahi M, Abdoun M, Abdullahi A, Abdurehman AM, Abebe M, Abedi A, Abedi A, Abegaz TM, Abeldaño Zuñiga RA, Abhilash ES, Abiodun OO, Aboagye RG, Abolhassani H, Abouzid M, Abreu LG, Abrha WA, Abrigo MRM, Abtahi D, Abu Rumeileh S, Abu-Rmeileh NME, Aburuz S, Abu-Zaid A, Acuna JM, Adair T, Addo IY, Adebayo OM, Adegboye OA, Adekanmbi V, Aden B, Adepoju AV, Adetunji CO, Adeyeoluwa TE, Adeyomoye OI, Adha R, Adibi A, Adikusuma W, Adnani QES, Adra S, Afework A, Afolabi AA, Afraz A, Afyouni S, Afzal S, Agasthi P, Aghamiri S, Agodi A, Agyemang-Duah W, Ahinkorah BO, Ahmad A, Ahmad D, Ahmad F, Ahmad MM, Ahmad T, Ahmadi K, Ahmadzade AM, Ahmadzade M, Ahmed A, Ahmed H, Ahmed LA, Ahmed MB, Ahmed SA, Ajami M, Aji B, Ajumobi O, Akalu GT, Akara EM, Akinosoglou K, Akkala S, Akyirem S, Al Hamad H, Al Hasan SM, Al Homsi A, Al Qadire M, Ala M, Aladelusi TO, 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Parthasarathi A, Pashaei A, Pasupula DK, Patel JR, Patel SK, Pathan AR, Patil A, Patil S, Patoulias D, Patthipati VS, Paudel U, Pawar S, Pazoki Toroudi H, Pease SA, Peden AE, Pedersini P, Peng M, Pensato U, Pepito VCF, Peprah EK, Pereira G, Pereira J, Pereira M, Peres MFP, Perianayagam A, Perico N, Petcu IR, Petermann-Rocha FE, Pezzani R, Pham HT, Phillips MR, Pierannunzio D, Pigeolet M, Pigott DM, Pilgrim T, Pinheiro M, Piradov MA, Plakkal N, Plotnikov E, Poddighe D, Pollner P, Poluru R, Pond CD, Postma MJ, Poudel GR, Poudel L, Pourali G, Pourtaheri N, Prada SI, Pradhan PMS, Prajapati VK, Prakash V, Prasad CP, Prasad M, Prashant A, Prates EJS, Purnobasuki H, Purohit BM, Puvvula J, Qaisar R, Qasim NH, Qattea I, Qian G, Quan NK, Radfar A, Radhakrishnan V, Raee P, Raeisi Shahraki H, Rafiei Alavi SN, Rafique I, Raggi A, Rahim F, Rahman MM, Rahman M, Rahman MA, Rahman T, Rahmani AM, Rahmani S, Rahnavard N, Rai P, Rajaa S, Rajabpour-Sanati A, Rajput P, Ram P, Ramadan H, Ramasamy SK, Ramazanu S, Rana J, Rana K, Ranabhat CL, Rancic N, Rani S, Ranjan S, Rao CR, Rao IR, Rao M, Rao SJ, Rasali DP, Rasella D, Rashedi S, Rashedi V, Rashid AM, Rasouli-Saravani A, Rastogi P, Rasul A, Ravangard R, Ravikumar N, Rawaf DL, Rawaf S, Rawassizadeh R, Razeghian-Jahromi I, Reddy MMRK, Redwan EMM, Rehman FU, Reiner Jr RC, Remuzzi G, Reshmi B, Resnikoff S, Reyes LF, Rezaee M, Rezaei N, Rezaei N, Rezaeian M, Riaz MA, Ribeiro AI, Ribeiro DC, Rickard J, Rios-Blancas MJ, Robinson-Oden HE, Rodrigues M, Rodriguez JAB, Roever L, Rohilla R, Rohloff P, Romadlon DS, Ronfani L, Roshandel G, Roshanzamir S, Rostamian M, Roy B, Roy P, Rubagotti E, Rumisha SF, Rwegerera GM, Rynkiewicz A, S M, S N C, S Sunnerhagen K, Saad AMA, Sabbatucci M, Saber K, Saber-Ayad MM, Sacco S, Saddik B, Saddler A, Sadee BA, Sadeghi E, Sadeghi M, Sadeghian S, Saeed U, Saeedi M, Safi S, Sagar R, Saghazadeh A, Saheb Sharif-Askari N, Sahoo SS, Sahraian MA, Sajedi SA, Sajid MR, Sakshaug JW, Salahi S, Salahi S, Salamati P, Salami AA, Salaroli LB, Saleh MA, Salehi S, Salem MR, Salem MZY, Salimi S, Samadi Kafil H, Samadzadeh S, Samara KA, Samargandy S, Samodra YL, Samuel VP, Samy AM, Sanabria J, Sanadgol N, Sanganyado E, Sanjeev RK, Sanmarchi F, Sanna F, Santri IN, Santric-Milicevic MM, Sarasmita MA, Saravanan A, Saravi B, Sarikhani Y, Sarkar C, Sarmiento-Suárez R, Sarode GS, Sarode SC, Sarveazad A, Sathian B, Sathish T, Sattin D, Saulam J, Sawyer SM, Saxena S, Saya GK, Sayadi Y, Sayeed A, Sayeed MA, Saylan M, Scarmeas N, Schaarschmidt BM, Schlee W, Schmidt MI, Schuermans A, Schwebel DC, Schwendicke F, Šekerija M, Selvaraj S, Semreen MH, Senapati S, Sengupta P, Senthilkumaran S, Sepanlou SG, Serban D, Sertsu A, Sethi Y, SeyedAlinaghi S, Seyedi SA, Shafaat A, Shafaat O, Shafie M, Shafiee A, Shah NS, Shah PA, Shahabi S, Shahbandi A, Shahid I, Shahid S, Shahid W, Shahwan MJ, Shaikh MA, Shakeri A, Shakil H, Sham S, Shamim MA, Shams-Beyranvand M, Shamshad H, Shamshirgaran MA, Shamsi MA, Shanawaz M, Shankar A, Sharfaei S, Sharifan A, Shariff M, Sharifi-Rad J, Sharma M, Sharma R, Sharma S, Sharma V, Shastry RP, Shavandi A, Shaw DH, Shayan AM, Shehabeldine AME, Sheikh A, Sheikhi RA, Shen J, Shenoy MM, Shetty BSK, Shetty RS, Shey RA, Shiani A, Shibuya K, Shiferaw D, Shigematsu M, Shin JI, Shin MJ, Shiri R, Shirkoohi R, Shittu A, Shiue I, Shivakumar KM, Shivarov V, Shool S, Shrestha S, Shuja KH, Shuval K, Si Y, Sibhat MM, Siddig EE, Sigfusdottir ID, Silva JP, Silva LMLR, Silva S, Simões JP, Simpson CR, Singal A, Singh A, Singh A, Singh A, Singh BB, Singh B, Singh M, Singh M, Singh NP, Singh P, Singh S, Siraj MS, Sitas F, Sivakumar S, Skryabin VY, Skryabina AA, Sleet DA, Slepak ELN, Sohrabi H, Soleimani H, Soliman SSM, Solmi M, Solomon Y, Song Y, Sorensen RJD, Soriano JB, Soyiri IN, Spartalis M, Sreeramareddy CT, Starnes JR, Starodubov VI, Starodubova AV, Stefan SC, Stein DJ, Steinbeis F, Steiropoulos P, Stockfelt L, Stokes MA, Stortecky S, Stranges S, Stroumpoulis K, Suleman M, Suliankatchi Abdulkader R, Sultana A, Sun J, Sunkersing D, Susanty S, Swain CK, Sykes BL, Szarpak L, Szeto MD, Szócska M, Tabaee Damavandi P, Tabatabaei Malazy O, Tabatabaeizadeh SA, Tabatabai S, Tabb KM, Tabish M, Taborda-Barata LM, Tabuchi T, Tadesse BT, Taheri A, Taheri Abkenar Y, Taheri Soodejani M, Taherkhani A, Taiba J, Tajbakhsh A, Talaat IM, Talukder A, Tamuzi JL, Tan KK, Tang H, Tang HK, Tat NY, Tat VY, Tavakoli Oliaee R, Tavangar SM, Taveira N, Tebeje TM, Tefera YM, Teimoori M, Temsah MH, Temsah RMH, Teramoto M, Tesfaye SH, Thangaraju P, Thankappan KR, Thapa R, Thapar R, Thomas N, Thrift AG, Thum CCC, Tian J, Tichopad A, Ticoalu JHV, Tiruye TY, Tohidast SA, Tonelli M, Touvier M, Tovani-Palone MR, Tram KH, Tran NM, Trico D, Trihandini I, Tromans SJ, Truong VT, Truyen TTTT, Tsermpini EE, Tumurkhuu M, Tung K, Tyrovolas S, Ubah CS, Udoakang AJ, Udoh A, Ulhaq I, Ullah S, Ullah S, Umair M, Umar TP, Umeokonkwo CD, Umesh A, Unim B, Unnikrishnan B, Upadhyay E, Urso D, Vacante M, Vahdani AM, Vaithinathan AG, Valadan Tahbaz S, Valizadeh R, Van den Eynde J, Varavikova E, Varga O, Varma SA, Vart P, Varthya SB, Vasankari TJ, Veerman LJ, Venketasubramanian N, Venugopal D, Verghese NA, Verma M, Verma P, Veroux M, Verras GI, Vervoort D, Vieira RJ, Villafañe JH, Villani L, Villanueva GI, Villeneuve PJ, Violante FS, Visontay R, Vlassov V, Vo B, Vollset SE, Volovat SR, Volovici V, Vongpradith A, Vos T, Vujcic IS, Vukovic R, Wado YD, Wafa HA, Waheed Y, Wamai RG, Wang C, Wang D, Wang F, Wang S, Wang S, Wang Y, Wang YP, Ward P, Watson S, Weaver MR, Weerakoon KG, Weiss DJ, Weldemariam AH, Wells KM, Wen YF, Werdecker A, Westerman R, Wickramasinghe DP, Wickramasinghe ND, Wijeratne T, Wilson S, Wojewodzic MW, Wool EE, Woolf AD, Wu D, Wulandari RD, Xiao H, Xu B, Xu X, Yadav L, Yaghoubi S, Yang L, Yano Y, Yao Y, Ye P, Yesera GE, Yesodharan R, Yesuf SA, Yiğit A, Yiğit V, Yip P, Yon DK, Yonemoto N, You Y, Younis MZ, Yu C, Zadey S, Zadnik V, Zafari N, Zahedi M, Zahid MN, Zahir M, Zakham F, Zaki N, Zakzuk J, Zamagni G, Zaman BA, Zaman SB, Zamora N, Zand R, Zandi M, Zandieh GGZ, Zanghì A, Zare I, Zastrozhin MS, Zeariya MGM, Zeng Y, Zhai C, Zhang C, Zhang H, Zhang H, Zhang Y, Zhang Z, Zhang Z, Zhao H, Zhao Y, Zhao Y, Zheng P, Zhong C, Zhou J, Zhu B, Zhu Z, Ziaeefar P, Zielińska M, Zou Z, Zumla A, Zweck E, Zyoud SH, Lim SS, Murray CJL. Global age-sex-specific mortality, life expectancy, and population estimates in 204 countries and territories and 811 subnational locations, 1950-2021, and the impact of the COVID-19 pandemic: a comprehensive demographic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2021. Lancet 2024:S0140-6736(24)00476-8. [PMID: 38484753 DOI: 10.1016/s0140-6736(24)00476-8] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [What about the content of this article? (0)] [Abstract] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Submit a Manuscript] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 09/28/2023] [Revised: 12/08/2023] [Accepted: 03/06/2024] [Indexed: 04/13/2024]
Abstract
BACKGROUND Estimates of demographic metrics are crucial to assess levels and trends of population health outcomes. The profound impact of the COVID-19 pandemic on populations worldwide has underscored the need for timely estimates to understand this unprecedented event within the context of long-term population health trends. The Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study (GBD) 2021 provides new demographic estimates for 204 countries and territories and 811 additional subnational locations from 1950 to 2021, with a particular emphasis on changes in mortality and life expectancy that occurred during the 2020-21 COVID-19 pandemic period. METHODS 22 223 data sources from vital registration, sample registration, surveys, censuses, and other sources were used to estimate mortality, with a subset of these sources used exclusively to estimate excess mortality due to the COVID-19 pandemic. 2026 data sources were used for population estimation. Additional sources were used to estimate migration; the effects of the HIV epidemic; and demographic discontinuities due to conflicts, famines, natural disasters, and pandemics, which are used as inputs for estimating mortality and population. Spatiotemporal Gaussian process regression (ST-GPR) was used to generate under-5 mortality rates, which synthesised 30 763 location-years of vital registration and sample registration data, 1365 surveys and censuses, and 80 other sources. ST-GPR was also used to estimate adult mortality (between ages 15 and 59 years) based on information from 31 642 location-years of vital registration and sample registration data, 355 surveys and censuses, and 24 other sources. Estimates of child and adult mortality rates were then used to generate life tables with a relational model life table system. For countries with large HIV epidemics, life tables were adjusted using independent estimates of HIV-specific mortality generated via an epidemiological analysis of HIV prevalence surveys, antenatal clinic serosurveillance, and other data sources. Excess mortality due to the COVID-19 pandemic in 2020 and 2021 was determined by subtracting observed all-cause mortality (adjusted for late registration and mortality anomalies) from the mortality expected in the absence of the pandemic. Expected mortality was calculated based on historical trends using an ensemble of models. In location-years where all-cause mortality data were unavailable, we estimated excess mortality rates using a regression model with covariates pertaining to the pandemic. Population size was computed using a Bayesian hierarchical cohort component model. Life expectancy was calculated using age-specific mortality rates and standard demographic methods. Uncertainty intervals (UIs) were calculated for every metric using the 25th and 975th ordered values from a 1000-draw posterior distribution. FINDINGS Global all-cause mortality followed two distinct patterns over the study period: age-standardised mortality rates declined between 1950 and 2019 (a 62·8% [95% UI 60·5-65·1] decline), and increased during the COVID-19 pandemic period (2020-21; 5·1% [0·9-9·6] increase). In contrast with the overall reverse in mortality trends during the pandemic period, child mortality continued to decline, with 4·66 million (3·98-5·50) global deaths in children younger than 5 years in 2021 compared with 5·21 million (4·50-6·01) in 2019. An estimated 131 million (126-137) people died globally from all causes in 2020 and 2021 combined, of which 15·9 million (14·7-17·2) were due to the COVID-19 pandemic (measured by excess mortality, which includes deaths directly due to SARS-CoV-2 infection and those indirectly due to other social, economic, or behavioural changes associated with the pandemic). Excess mortality rates exceeded 150 deaths per 100 000 population during at least one year of the pandemic in 80 countries and territories, whereas 20 nations had a negative excess mortality rate in 2020 or 2021, indicating that all-cause mortality in these countries was lower during the pandemic than expected based on historical trends. Between 1950 and 2021, global life expectancy at birth increased by 22·7 years (20·8-24·8), from 49·0 years (46·7-51·3) to 71·7 years (70·9-72·5). Global life expectancy at birth declined by 1·6 years (1·0-2·2) between 2019 and 2021, reversing historical trends. An increase in life expectancy was only observed in 32 (15·7%) of 204 countries and territories between 2019 and 2021. The global population reached 7·89 billion (7·67-8·13) people in 2021, by which time 56 of 204 countries and territories had peaked and subsequently populations have declined. The largest proportion of population growth between 2020 and 2021 was in sub-Saharan Africa (39·5% [28·4-52·7]) and south Asia (26·3% [9·0-44·7]). From 2000 to 2021, the ratio of the population aged 65 years and older to the population aged younger than 15 years increased in 188 (92·2%) of 204 nations. INTERPRETATION Global adult mortality rates markedly increased during the COVID-19 pandemic in 2020 and 2021, reversing past decreasing trends, while child mortality rates continued to decline, albeit more slowly than in earlier years. Although COVID-19 had a substantial impact on many demographic indicators during the first 2 years of the pandemic, overall global health progress over the 72 years evaluated has been profound, with considerable improvements in mortality and life expectancy. Additionally, we observed a deceleration of global population growth since 2017, despite steady or increasing growth in lower-income countries, combined with a continued global shift of population age structures towards older ages. These demographic changes will likely present future challenges to health systems, economies, and societies. The comprehensive demographic estimates reported here will enable researchers, policy makers, health practitioners, and other key stakeholders to better understand and address the profound changes that have occurred in the global health landscape following the first 2 years of the COVID-19 pandemic, and longer-term trends beyond the pandemic. FUNDING Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation.
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Horde GW, Ayyala D, Maddux P, Gopal A, White W, Berman AE. Creation and Validation of an Algorithm for Predicting the Recurrence of Atrial Fibrillation Following Pulmonary Vein Isolation by Utilizing Real-World Data and Ensemble Modeling Techniques. Cureus 2023; 15:e43234. [PMID: 37577270 PMCID: PMC10415965 DOI: 10.7759/cureus.43234] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [What about the content of this article? (0)] [Affiliation(s)] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Track Full Text] [Figures] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Accepted: 08/08/2023] [Indexed: 08/15/2023] Open
Abstract
Introduction Catheter ablation (CA) of atrial fibrillation (AF) represents a mainstay in the treatment of this increasingly prevalent arrhythmia. Prospective clinical trials investigating the efficacy of CA may poorly represent real-world patient populations. However, many real-world clinical datasets possess missing data, which may impede their applicability in research. Thus, we sought to use ensemble modeling to address missing data and develop a model to estimate the probability of AF recurrence following CA. Methods We retrospectively analyzed clinical variables in 476 patients who underwent an initial CA of AF. Univariate and multivariate logistic regression was performed to determine those variables predictive of AF recurrence. A multivariate logistic model was created to estimate the probability of AF recurrence after CA. Missing data were addressed using ensemble modeling, and variable selection was performed using the aggregate of multiple models. Results After analysis, six variables remained in the model: AF during the post-procedural blanking period, coexistence of atrial flutter, end-stage renal disease, reduced left ventricular ejection fraction, prior failure of anti-arrhythmic drugs, and valvular heart disease. Predictive modeling was performed using these variables for 1000 randomly partitioned datasets (80% training, 20% testing) and 1000 random imputations for each partitioned dataset. The model predicted AF recurrence with an accuracy of 74.34 ± 3.99% (recall: 54.03 ± 8.15%; precision: 89.30 ± 4.21%; F1 score: 81.08 ± 3.65%). Conclusion We successfully identified six clinical variables that, when modeled, predicted AF recurrence following CA with a high degree of classification accuracy. Application of this model to patients undergoing CA of AF may help identify those at risk of post-procedural AF recurrence.
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Affiliation(s)
- Gaither W Horde
- Department of Medicine, Augusta University Medical College of Georgia, Augusta, USA
| | - Deepak Ayyala
- Department of Population Health Sciences, Augusta University Medical College of Georgia, Augusta, USA
| | - Paul Maddux
- Department of Medicine, Augusta University Medical College of Georgia, Augusta, USA
| | - Aaron Gopal
- Department of Medicine, Augusta University Medical College of Georgia, Augusta, USA
| | - William White
- Department of Medicine, Augusta University Medical College of Georgia, Augusta, USA
| | - Adam E Berman
- Department of Medicine, Augusta University Medical College of Georgia, Augusta, USA
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Kozlova NI, Morozevich GE, Gevorkian NM, Kurbatov LK, Berman AE. Implication of integrin α5β1 in senescence of SK-Mel-147 human melanoma cells. Biomed Khim 2023; 69:156-164. [PMID: 37384907 DOI: 10.18097/pbmc20236903156] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [What about the content of this article? (0)] [Affiliation(s)] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Track Full Text] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Indexed: 07/01/2023]
Abstract
Downregulation of α5β1 integrin in the SK-Mel-147 human melanoma culture model sharply inhibits the phenotypic manifestations of tumor progression: cell proliferation and clonal activity. This was accompanied by a 2-3-fold increase in the content of SA-β-Gal positive cells thus indicating an increase in the cellular senescence phenotype. These changes were accompanied by a significant increase in the activity of p53 and p21 tumor suppressors and components of the PI3K/Akt/mTOR/p70 signaling pathway. Pharmacological inhibition of mTORC1 reduced the content of SA-β-Gal positive cells in the population of α5β1-deficient SK-Mel-147 cells. A similar effect was observed with pharmacological and genetic inhibition of the activity of Akt1, one of the three Akt protein kinase isoenzymes; suppression of other Akt isozymes did not affect melanoma cell senescence. The results presented in this work and previously obtained indicate that α5β1 shares with other integrins of the β1 family the function of cell protection from senescence. This function is realized via regulation of the PI3K/Akt1/mTOR signaling pathway, in which Akt1 exhibits a non-canonical activity.
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Affiliation(s)
- N I Kozlova
- Institute of Biomedical Chemistry, Moscow, Russia
| | | | | | - L K Kurbatov
- Institute of Biomedical Chemistry, Moscow, Russia
| | - A E Berman
- Institute of Biomedical Chemistry, Moscow, Russia
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Berman AE, Kabiri M, Wei T, Galvain T, Sha Q, Kuck KH. Economic and Health Value of Delaying Atrial Fibrillation Progression Using Radiofrequency Catheter Ablation. Circ Arrhythm Electrophysiol 2023; 16:e011237. [PMID: 36891899 PMCID: PMC10108841 DOI: 10.1161/circep.122.011237] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [What about the content of this article? (0)] [Affiliation(s)] [Abstract] [Key Words] [MESH Headings] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Submit a Manuscript] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 05/21/2022] [Accepted: 02/16/2023] [Indexed: 03/10/2023]
Abstract
BACKGROUND Radiofrequency catheter ablation (RFCA) is an established treatment for atrial fibrillation (AF) refractory to antiarrhythmic drugs. The economic value of RFCA in delaying disease progression has not been quantified. METHODS An individual-level, state-transition health economic model estimated the impact of delayed AF progression using RFCA versus antiarrhythmic drug treatment for a hypothetical sample of patients with paroxysmal AF. The model incorporated the lifetime risk of progression from paroxysmal AF to persistent AF, informed by data from the ATTEST (Atrial Fibrillation Progression Trial). The incremental effect of RFCA on disease progression was modeled over a 5-year duration. Annual crossover rates were also included for patients in the antiarrhythmic drug group to mirror clinical practice. Estimates of discounted costs and quality-adjusted life years asssociated with health care utilization, clinical outcomes, and complications were projected over patients' lifetimes. RESULTS From the payer's perspective, RFCA was superior to antiarrhythmic drug treatment with an estimated mean net monetary benefit per patient of $8516 ($148-$16 681), driven by reduced health care utilization, cost, and improved quality-adjusted life years. RFCA reduced mean (95% CI) per-patient costs by $73 (-$2700 to $2200), increased mean quality-adjusted life years by 0.084 (0.0-0.17) and decreased the mean number of cardiovascular-related health care encounters by 24%. CONCLUSIONS RFCA is a dominant (less costly and more effective) treatment strategy for patients with AF, especially those with early AF for whom RFCA could delay progression to advanced AF. Increased utilization of RFCA-particularly among patients earlier in their disease progression-may provide clinical and economic benefits.
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Affiliation(s)
- Adam E. Berman
- Divisions of Cardiology and Health Economics and Modeling, Departments of Medicine and Population Health Sciences, Medical College of Georgia, Augusta, GA (A.E.B.)
| | - Mina Kabiri
- Global Provider and Payer Value Demonstration, Global Health Economics, Johnson and Johnson Medical Devices, New Brunswick, NJ (M.K., T.G.)
| | - Tom Wei
- Biosense Webster, Inc, Franchise Health Economics (T.W.), Johnson and Johnson Medical Devices, Irvine, CA
| | - Thibaut Galvain
- Global Provider and Payer Value Demonstration, Global Health Economics, Johnson and Johnson Medical Devices, New Brunswick, NJ (M.K., T.G.)
| | - Qun Sha
- Biosense Webster, Inc, Medical Affairs (Q.S.), Johnson and Johnson Medical Devices, Irvine, CA
| | - Karl-Heinz Kuck
- Universitätsklinikum Schleswig-Holstein, Lübeck, Germany (K.-H.K.)
- LANS Cardio, Hamburg, Germany (K.-H.K.)
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Lee TJ, Berman AE, Rao ASRS. Markov Chain Models for Cardiac Rhythm Dynamics in Patients Undergoing Catheter Ablation of Atrial Fibrillation. Bull Math Biol 2023; 85:34. [PMID: 36959515 DOI: 10.1007/s11538-023-01125-8] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [What about the content of this article? (0)] [Affiliation(s)] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 04/20/2022] [Accepted: 01/23/2023] [Indexed: 03/25/2023]
Abstract
We have developed a novel Markov Chain modeling system that considers vectors of patients with atrial fibrillation (AF) by their AF status over a period of time. Our model examines the impact of catheter ablation of AF upon the dynamics of a patient's AF status and their potential return to sinus rhythm. We prove several theorems to determine the probabilities of patients achieving sinus rhythm or progressing to permanent AF. Additionally, we observed aggregation of patients within the paroxysmal AF state in simulation. The aggregating property of Markov chains illustrated the potential benefits of catheter ablation on healthcare resource allocation.
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Affiliation(s)
- Tae Jin Lee
- Center for Biotechnology and Genomic Medicine, Augusta University, 1120, 15th Street, Augusta, GA, 30912, USA
- Department of Population Health Sciences, Augusta University, 1120, 15th Street, Augusta, 30912, GA, USA
| | - Adam E Berman
- Division of Cardiology-Department of Medicine, Augusta University, 1120, 15th Street, Augusta, GA, 30912, USA
| | - Arni S R Srinivasa Rao
- Laboratory for Theory and Mathematical Modeling, Department of Medicine, Division of Infectious Diseases, Medical College of Georgia, 1120, 15th Street, Augusta, GA, 30912, USA.
- Department of Mathematics, Augusta University, 1120, 15th Street, Augusta, GA, 30912, USA.
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Zhang H, Shen Y, Kim IM, Liu Y, Cai J, Berman AE, Nilsson KR, Weintraub NL, Tang Y. Electrical Stimulation Increases the Secretion of Cardioprotective Extracellular Vesicles from Cardiac Mesenchymal Stem Cells. Cells 2023; 12:cells12060875. [PMID: 36980214 PMCID: PMC10047597 DOI: 10.3390/cells12060875] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [What about the content of this article? (0)] [Affiliation(s)] [Abstract] [MESH Headings] [Grants] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 01/19/2023] [Revised: 03/06/2023] [Accepted: 03/08/2023] [Indexed: 03/16/2023] Open
Abstract
Clinical trials have shown that electric stimulation (ELSM) using either cardiac resynchronization therapy (CRT) or cardiac contractility modulation (CCM) approaches is an effective treatment for patients with moderate to severe heart failure, but the mechanisms are incompletely understood. Extracellular vesicles (EV) produced by cardiac mesenchymal stem cells (C-MSC) have been reported to be cardioprotective through cell-to-cell communication. In this study, we investigated the effects of ELSM stimulation on EV secretion from C-MSCs (C-MSCELSM). We observed enhanced EV-dependent cardioprotection conferred by conditioned medium (CM) from C-MSCELSM compared to that from non-stimulated control C-MSC (C-MSCCtrl). To investigate the mechanisms of ELSM-stimulated EV secretion, we examined the protein levels of neutral sphingomyelinase 2 (nSMase2), a key enzyme of the endosomal sorting complex required for EV biosynthesis. We detected a time-dependent increase in nSMase2 protein levels in C-MSCELSM compared to C-MSCCtrl. Knockdown of nSMase2 in C-MSC by siRNA significantly reduced EV secretion in C-MSCELSM and attenuated the cardioprotective effect of CM from C-MSCELSM in HL-1 cells. Taken together, our results suggest that ELSM-mediated increases in EV secretion from C-MSC enhance the cardioprotective effects of C-MSC through an EV-dependent mechanism involving nSMase2.
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Affiliation(s)
- Haitao Zhang
- Medical College of Georgia, Augusta University, Augusta, GA 30912, USA
| | - Yan Shen
- Medical College of Georgia, Augusta University, Augusta, GA 30912, USA
| | - Il-man Kim
- Cell Biology and Physiology, School of Medicine, Indiana University, Indianapolis, IN 47405, USA
| | - Yutao Liu
- Medical College of Georgia, Augusta University, Augusta, GA 30912, USA
| | - Jingwen Cai
- Medical College of Georgia, Augusta University, Augusta, GA 30912, USA
| | - Adam E. Berman
- Medical College of Georgia, Augusta University, Augusta, GA 30912, USA
| | - Kent R. Nilsson
- Medical College of Georgia, Augusta University/University of Georgia Partnership, Athens, GA 30602, USA
| | - Neal L. Weintraub
- Medical College of Georgia, Augusta University, Augusta, GA 30912, USA
| | - Yaoliang Tang
- Medical College of Georgia, Augusta University, Augusta, GA 30912, USA
- Correspondence:
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Bucur P, Smith C, AlJaroudi W, Berman AE. Recurrent MRI-documented myocarditis following Pfizer-BioNTech SARS-CoV-2 vaccination. Am J Med Sci 2022; 364:e79-e80. [PMID: 35798058 PMCID: PMC9252861 DOI: 10.1016/j.amjms.2022.06.024] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [What about the content of this article? (0)] [Affiliation(s)] [Track Full Text] [Download PDF] [Figures] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 10/15/2021] [Revised: 04/27/2022] [Accepted: 06/29/2022] [Indexed: 01/25/2023]
Affiliation(s)
- Philip Bucur
- Department of Medicine, Medical College of Georgia at Augusta University, Augusta, GA, USA,Corresponding author
| | - Corey Smith
- Department of Medicine, Medical College of Georgia at Augusta University, Augusta, GA, USA
| | - Wael AlJaroudi
- Department of Medicine, Medical College of Georgia at Augusta University, Augusta, GA, USA
| | - Adam E. Berman
- Department of Medicine, Medical College of Georgia at Augusta University, Augusta, GA, USA,Departments of Medicine and Population Health Sciences, Medical College of Georgia at Augusta University, Augusta, GA, USA
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Berman AE, Maccioni S, Khanna R. Atrial fibrillation ablation with advanced radiofrequency catheter versus second-generation cryoballoon catheter. J Comp Eff Res 2022; 11:659-668. [PMID: 35535654 DOI: 10.2217/cer-2021-0170] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [What about the content of this article? (0)] [Affiliation(s)] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Indexed: 11/21/2022] Open
Abstract
Aim: To compare cost and readmissions among atrial fibrillation (AF) patients undergoing ablation using the THERMOCOOL SMARTTOUCH™ SF (STSF) radiofrequency catheter versus the Arctic Front Advance™ (AFA) cryoballoon catheter. Patients & methods: The Premier Healthcare Database was used for the study purposes. Propensity score matching was used to match patients in the two groups. Costs and readmissions were assessed. A regression model was used for outcome assessment. Results: After propensity matching, 2767 patients were identified in each of the STSF and AFA cohorts. In the matched cohort, STSF patients had significantly lower supply costs than AFA patients. STSF patients had significantly lower 4-12-month AF-related inpatient readmissions compared with AFA patients (2.58% vs 3.99%; p = 0.0402). Costs of care summing index procedure and readmission costs were also lower for the STSF patients versus AFA patients. Conclusions: Patients who underwent AF ablation using the STSF catheter versus the AFA catheter had lower cost and AF-related readmissions.
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Affiliation(s)
- Adam E Berman
- Baptist Heart-Cardiology, Mississippi Baptist Medical Center, Jackson, MS, USA
| | - Sonia Maccioni
- Franchise Health Economics & Market Access, Johnson & Johnson, Irvine, CA, USA
| | - Rahul Khanna
- Medical Device Epidemiology & Real-World Data Sciences, Johnson & Johnson, New Brunswick, NJ 08901, USA
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Morozevic GE, Kozlova NI, Gevorkian NM, Berman AE. [Integrin α3β1 signaling in regulation of the SK-Mel-147 melanoma cell senescence]. Biomed Khim 2022; 68:39-46. [PMID: 35221295 DOI: 10.18097/pbmc20226801039] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [What about the content of this article? (0)] [Affiliation(s)] [Abstract] [Key Words] [MESH Headings] [Track Full Text] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Indexed: 06/14/2023]
Abstract
Using a model of the human SK-Mel-147 melanoma cell line, it was shown that blocking the expression of integrin α3β1 by transduction of cells with α3-specific shRNA did not affect their proliferation, but sharply increased the proportion of SA-β-Gal-positive cells, a phenotypic feature of cell senescence. These findings were accompanied by a significant increase in the activity of the Akt and mTOR protein kinases and the expression of p53 and p21 oncosupressors. Pharmacological inhibition of mTORC1 reduced the number SA-β-Gal-positive cells in the SK-Mel-147 cell population depleted of α3β1. Based on our recent data on a non-canonical function of Akt isomers in the regulation of SK-Mel-147 cell senescence caused by deficiency of α2β1 receptor, we investigated the role of Akt isomers in senescence induced by the α3β1 knockdown. It appeared that in the cell population with downregulated α3β1, inhibition of Akt1 reduced the number SA-β-Gal positive cells to the level of control cell population, while inhibition of Akt2 had no visible effect. Our results demonstrate that the laminin-specific integrin α3β1, like the collagen-specific receptor α2β1, is involved in tumor cell protection from senescence, and senescence induced by α3β1 depletion, like that caused by α2β1 deficiency, is based on a signaling mechanism employing a non-canonical function of the Akt1 isoform.
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Affiliation(s)
| | - N I Kozlova
- Institute of Biomedical Chemistry, Moscow, Russia
| | | | - A E Berman
- Institute of Biomedical Chemistry, Moscow, Russia
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Ward JL, Azzopardi PS, Francis KL, Santelli JS, Skirbekk V, Sawyer SM, Kassebaum NJ, Mokdad AH, Hay SI, Abd-Allah F, Abdoli A, Abdollahi M, Abedi A, Abolhassani H, Abreu LG, Abrigo MRM, Abu-Gharbieh E, Abushouk AI, Adebayo OM, Adekanmbi V, Adham D, Advani SM, Afshari K, Agrawal A, Ahmad T, Ahmadi K, Ahmed AE, Aji B, Akombi-Inyang B, Alahdab F, Al-Aly Z, Alam K, Alanezi FM, Alanzi TM, Alcalde-Rabanal JE, Alemu BW, Al-Hajj S, Alhassan RK, Ali S, Alicandro G, Alijanzadeh M, Aljunid SM, Almasi-Hashiani A, Almasri NA, Al-Mekhlafi HM, Alonso J, Al-Raddadi RM, Altirkawi KA, Alvis-Guzman N, Amare AT, Amini S, Aminorroaya A, Amit AML, Amugsi DA, Ancuceanu R, Anderlini D, Andrei CL, Androudi S, Ansari F, Ansari I, Antonio CAT, Anvari D, Anwer R, Appiah SCY, Arabloo J, Arab-Zozani M, Ärnlöv J, Asaad M, Asadi-Aliabadi M, Asadi-Pooya AA, Atout MMW, Ausloos M, Avenyo EK, Avila-Burgos L, Ayala Quintanilla BP, Ayano G, Aynalem YA, Azari S, Azene ZN, Bakhshaei MH, Bakkannavar SM, Banach M, Banik PC, Barboza MA, Barker-Collo SL, Bärnighausen TW, Basu S, Baune BT, Bayati M, Bedi N, Beghi E, Bekuma TT, Bell AW, Bell ML, Benjet C, Bensenor IM, Berhe AK, Berhe K, Berman AE, Bhagavathula AS, Bhardwaj N, Bhardwaj P, Bhattacharyya K, Bhattarai S, Bhutta ZA, Bijani A, Bikbov B, Biondi A, Birhanu TTM, Biswas RK, Bohlouli S, Bolla SR, Boloor A, Borschmann R, Boufous S, Bragazzi NL, Braithwaite D, Breitborde NJK, Brenner H, Britton GB, Burns RA, Burugina Nagaraja S, Butt ZA, Caetano dos Santos FL, Cámera LA, Campos-Nonato IR, Campuzano Rincon JC, Cárdenas R, Carreras G, Carrero JJ, Carvalho F, Castaldelli-Maia JM, Castañeda-Orjuela CA, Castelpietra G, Catalá-López F, Cerin E, Chandan JS, Chang HY, Chang JC, Charan J, Chattu VK, Chaturvedi S, Choi JYJ, Chowdhury MAK, Christopher DJ, Chu DT, Chung MT, Chung SC, Cicuttini FM, Constantin TV, Costa VM, Dahlawi SMA, Dai H, Dai X, Damiani G, Dandona L, Dandona R, Daneshpajouhnejad P, Darwesh AM, Dávila-Cervantes CA, Davletov K, De la Hoz FP, De Leo D, Dervenis N, Desai R, Desalew A, Deuba K, Dharmaratne SD, Dhungana GP, Dianatinasab M, Dias da Silva D, Diaz D, Didarloo A, Djalalinia S, Dorostkar F, Doshi CP, Doshmangir L, Doyle KE, Duraes AR, Ebrahimi Kalan M, Ebtehaj S, Edvardsson D, El Tantawi M, Elgendy IY, El-Jaafary SI, Elsharkawy A, Eshrati B, Eskandarieh S, Esmaeilnejad S, Esmaeilzadeh F, Esteghamati S, Faro A, Farzadfar F, Fattahi N, Feigin VL, Ferede TY, Fereshtehnejad SM, Fernandes E, Ferrara P, Filip I, Fischer F, Fisher JL, Foigt NA, Folayan MO, Fomenkov AA, Foroutan M, Fukumoto T, Gad MM, Gaidhane AM, Gallus S, Gebre T, Gebremedhin KB, Gebremeskel GG, Gebremeskel L, Gebreslassie AA, Gesesew HA, Ghadiri K, Ghafourifard M, Ghamari F, Ghashghaee A, Gilani SA, Gnedovskaya EV, Godinho MA, Golechha M, Goli S, Gona PN, Gopalani SV, Gorini G, Grivna M, Gubari MIM, Gugnani HC, Guimarães RA, Guo Y, Gupta R, Haagsma JA, Hafezi-Nejad N, Haile TG, Haj-Mirzaian A, Haj-Mirzaian A, Hall BJ, Hamadeh RR, Hamagharib Abdullah K, Hamidi S, Handiso DW, Hanif A, Hankey GJ, Haririan H, Haro JM, Hasaballah AI, Hashi A, Hassan A, Hassanipour S, Hassankhani H, Hayat K, Heidari-Soureshjani R, Herteliu C, Heydarpour F, Ho HC, Hole MK, Holla R, Hoogar P, Hosseini M, Hosseinzadeh M, Hostiuc M, Hostiuc S, Househ M, Hsairi M, Huda TM, Humayun A, Hussain R, Hwang BF, Iavicoli I, Ibitoye SE, Ilesanmi OS, Ilic IM, Ilic MD, Inbaraj LR, Intarut N, Iqbal U, Irvani SSN, Islam MM, Islam SMS, Iso H, Ivers RQ, Jahani MA, Jakovljevic M, Jalali A, Janodia MD, Javaheri T, Jeemon P, Jenabi E, Jha RP, Jha V, Ji JS, Jonas JB, Jones KM, Joukar F, Jozwiak JJ, Juliusson PB, Jürisson M, Kabir A, Kabir Z, Kalankesh LR, Kalhor R, Kamyari N, Kanchan T, Karch A, Karimi SE, Kaur S, Kayode GA, Keiyoro PN, Khalid N, Khammarnia M, Khan M, Khan MN, Khatab K, Khater MM, Khatib MN, Khayamzadeh M, Khazaie H, Khoja AT, Kieling C, Kim YE, Kim YJ, Kimokoti RW, Kisa A, Kisa S, Kivimäki M, Koolivand A, Kosen S, Koyanagi A, Krishan K, Kugbey N, Kumar GA, Kumar M, Kumar N, Kurmi OP, Kusuma D, La Vecchia C, Lacey B, Lal DK, Lalloo R, Lan Q, Landires I, Lansingh VC, Larsson AO, Lasrado S, Lassi ZS, Lauriola P, Lee PH, Lee SWH, Leigh J, Leonardi M, Leung J, Levi M, Lewycka S, Li B, Li MC, Li S, Lim LL, Lim SS, Liu X, Lorkowski S, Lotufo PA, Lunevicius R, Maddison R, Mahasha PW, Mahdavi MM, Mahmoudi M, Majeed A, Maleki A, Malekzadeh R, Malta DC, Mamun AA, Mansouri B, Mansournia MA, Martinez G, Martinez-Raga J, Martins-Melo FR, Mason-Jones AJ, Masoumi SZ, Mathur MR, Maulik PK, McGrath JJ, Mehndiratta MM, Mehri F, Memiah PTN, Mendoza W, Menezes RG, Mengesha EW, Meretoja A, Meretoja TJ, Mestrovic T, Miazgowski B, Miazgowski T, Michalek IM, Miller TR, Mini GK, Mirica A, Mirrakhimov EM, Mirzaei H, Mirzaei M, Moazen B, Mohammad DK, Mohammadi S, Mohammadian-Hafshejani A, Mohammadifard N, Mohammadpourhodki R, Mohammed S, Monasta L, Moradi G, Moradi-Lakeh M, Moradzadeh R, Moraga P, Morrison SD, Mosapour A, Mousavi Khaneghah A, Mueller UO, Muriithi MK, Murray CJL, Muthupandian S, Naderi M, Nagarajan AJ, Naghavi M, Naimzada MD, Nangia V, Nayak VC, Nazari J, Ndejjo R, Negoi I, Negoi RI, Netsere HB, Nguefack-Tsague G, Nguyen DN, Nguyen HLT, Nie J, Ningrum DNA, Nnaji CA, Nomura S, Noubiap JJ, Nowak C, Nuñez-Samudio V, Ogbo FA, Oghenetega OB, Oh IH, Oladnabi M, Olagunju AT, Olusanya BO, Olusanya JO, Omar Bali A, Omer MO, Onwujekwe OE, Ortiz A, Otoiu A, Otstavnov N, Otstavnov SS, Øverland S, Owolabi MO, P A M, Padubidri JR, Pakshir K, Palladino R, Pana A, Panda-Jonas S, Pandey A, Panelo CIA, Park EK, Patten SB, Peden AE, Pepito VCF, Peprah EK, Pereira J, Pesudovs K, Pham HQ, Phillips MR, Piradov MA, Pirsaheb M, Postma MJ, Pottoo FH, Pourjafar H, Pourshams A, Prada SI, Pupillo E, Quazi Syed Z, Rabiee MH, Rabiee N, Radfar A, Rafiee A, Raggi A, Rahim F, Rahimi-Movaghar V, Rahman MHU, Rahman MA, Ramezanzadeh K, Ranabhat CL, Rao SJ, Rashedi V, Rastogi P, Rathi P, Rawaf DL, Rawaf S, Rawal L, Rawassizadeh R, Renzaho AMN, Rezaei N, Rezaei N, Rezai MS, Riahi SM, Rickard J, Roever L, Ronfani L, Roth GA, Rubagotti E, Rumisha SF, Rwegerera GM, Sabour S, Sachdev PS, Saddik B, Sadeghi E, Saeedi Moghaddam S, Sagar R, Sahebkar A, Sahraian MA, Sajadi SM, Salem MR, Salimzadeh H, Samy AM, Sanabria J, Santric-Milicevic MM, Saraswathy SYI, Sarrafzadegan N, Sarveazad A, Sathish T, Sattin D, Saxena D, Saxena S, Schiavolin S, Schwebel DC, Schwendicke F, Senthilkumaran S, Sepanlou SG, Sha F, Shafaat O, Shahabi S, Shaheen AA, Shaikh MA, Shakiba S, Shamsi M, Shannawaz M, Sharafi K, Sheikh A, Sheikhbahaei S, Shetty BSK, Shi P, Shigematsu M, Shin JI, Shiri R, Shuval K, Siabani S, Sigfusdottir ID, Sigurvinsdottir R, Silva DAS, Silva JP, Simonetti B, Singh JA, Singh V, Sinke AH, Skryabin VY, Slater H, Smith EUR, Sobhiyeh MR, Sobngwi E, Soheili A, Somefun OD, Sorrie MB, Soyiri IN, Sreeramareddy CT, Stein DJ, Stokes MA, Sudaryanto A, Sultan I, Tabarés-Seisdedos R, Tabuchi T, Tadakamadla SK, Taherkhani A, Tamiru AT, Tareque MI, Thankappan KR, Thapar R, Thomas N, Titova MV, Tonelli M, Tovani-Palone MR, Tran BX, Travillian RS, Tsai AC, Tsatsakis A, Tudor Car L, Uddin R, Unim B, Unnikrishnan B, Upadhyay E, Vacante M, Valadan Tahbaz S, Valdez PR, Varughese S, Vasankari TJ, Venketasubramanian N, Villeneuve PJ, Violante FS, Vlassov V, Vos T, Vu GT, Waheed Y, Wamai RG, Wang Y, Wang Y, Wang YP, Westerman R, Wickramasinghe ND, Wu AM, Wu C, Yahyazadeh Jabbari SH, Yamagishi K, Yano Y, Yaya S, Yazdi-Feyzabadi V, Yeshitila YG, Yip P, Yonemoto N, Yoon SJ, Younis MZ, Yousefinezhadi T, Yu C, Yu Y, Yuce D, Zaidi SS, Zaman SB, Zamani M, Zamanian M, Zarafshan H, Zarei A, Zastrozhin MS, Zhang Y, Zhang ZJ, Zhao XJG, Zhu C, Patton GC, Viner RM. Global, regional, and national mortality among young people aged 10-24 years, 1950-2019: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2019. Lancet 2021; 398:1593-1618. [PMID: 34755628 PMCID: PMC8576274 DOI: 10.1016/s0140-6736(21)01546-4] [Citation(s) in RCA: 72] [Impact Index Per Article: 24.0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [What about the content of this article? (0)] [Abstract] [MESH Headings] [Grants] [Track Full Text] [Download PDF] [Figures] [Journal Information] [Submit a Manuscript] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 02/14/2021] [Revised: 05/07/2021] [Accepted: 06/30/2021] [Indexed: 02/07/2023]
Abstract
BACKGROUND Documentation of patterns and long-term trends in mortality in young people, which reflect huge changes in demographic and social determinants of adolescent health, enables identification of global investment priorities for this age group. We aimed to analyse data on the number of deaths, years of life lost, and mortality rates by sex and age group in people aged 10-24 years in 204 countries and territories from 1950 to 2019 by use of estimates from the Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study (GBD) 2019. METHODS We report trends in estimated total numbers of deaths and mortality rate per 100 000 population in young people aged 10-24 years by age group (10-14 years, 15-19 years, and 20-24 years) and sex in 204 countries and territories between 1950 and 2019 for all causes, and between 1980 and 2019 by cause of death. We analyse variation in outcomes by region, age group, and sex, and compare annual rate of change in mortality in young people aged 10-24 years with that in children aged 0-9 years from 1990 to 2019. We then analyse the association between mortality in people aged 10-24 years and socioeconomic development using the GBD Socio-demographic Index (SDI), a composite measure based on average national educational attainment in people older than 15 years, total fertility rate in people younger than 25 years, and income per capita. We assess the association between SDI and all-cause mortality in 2019, and analyse the ratio of observed to expected mortality by SDI using the most recent available data release (2017). FINDINGS In 2019 there were 1·49 million deaths (95% uncertainty interval 1·39-1·59) worldwide in people aged 10-24 years, of which 61% occurred in males. 32·7% of all adolescent deaths were due to transport injuries, unintentional injuries, or interpersonal violence and conflict; 32·1% were due to communicable, nutritional, or maternal causes; 27·0% were due to non-communicable diseases; and 8·2% were due to self-harm. Since 1950, deaths in this age group decreased by 30·0% in females and 15·3% in males, and sex-based differences in mortality rate have widened in most regions of the world. Geographical variation has also increased, particularly in people aged 10-14 years. Since 1980, communicable and maternal causes of death have decreased sharply as a proportion of total deaths in most GBD super-regions, but remain some of the most common causes in sub-Saharan Africa and south Asia, where more than half of all adolescent deaths occur. Annual percentage decrease in all-cause mortality rate since 1990 in adolescents aged 15-19 years was 1·3% in males and 1·6% in females, almost half that of males aged 1-4 years (2·4%), and around a third less than in females aged 1-4 years (2·5%). The proportion of global deaths in people aged 0-24 years that occurred in people aged 10-24 years more than doubled between 1950 and 2019, from 9·5% to 21·6%. INTERPRETATION Variation in adolescent mortality between countries and by sex is widening, driven by poor progress in reducing deaths in males and older adolescents. Improving global adolescent mortality will require action to address the specific vulnerabilities of this age group, which are being overlooked. Furthermore, indirect effects of the COVID-19 pandemic are likely to jeopardise efforts to improve health outcomes including mortality in young people aged 10-24 years. There is an urgent need to respond to the changing global burden of adolescent mortality, address inequities where they occur, and improve the availability and quality of primary mortality data in this age group. FUNDING Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation.
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Micah AE, Cogswell IE, Cunningham B, Ezoe S, Harle AC, Maddison ER, McCracken D, Nomura S, Simpson KE, Stutzman HN, Tsakalos G, Wallace LE, Zhao Y, Zende RR, Abbafati C, Abdelmasseh M, Abedi A, Abegaz KH, Abhilash ES, Abolhassani H, Abrigo MRM, Adhikari TB, Afzal S, Ahinkorah BO, Ahmadi S, Ahmed H, Ahmed MB, Ahmed Rashid T, Ajami M, Aji B, Akalu Y, Akunna CJ, Al Hamad H, Alam K, Alanezi FM, Alanzi TM, Alemayehu Y, Alhassan RK, Alinia C, Aljunid SM, Almustanyir SA, Alvis-Guzman N, Alvis-Zakzuk NJ, Amini S, Amini-Rarani M, Amu H, Ancuceanu R, Andrei CL, Andrei T, Angell B, Anjomshoa M, Antonio CAT, Antony CM, Aqeel M, Arabloo J, Arab-Zozani M, Aripov T, Arrigo A, Ashraf T, Atnafu DD, Ausloos M, Avila-Burgos L, Awan AT, Ayano G, Ayanore MA, Azari S, Azhar GS, Babalola TK, Bahrami MA, Baig AA, Banach M, Barati N, Bärnighausen TW, Barrow A, Basu S, Baune BT, Bayati M, Benzian H, Berman AE, Bhagavathula AS, Bhardwaj N, Bhardwaj P, Bhaskar S, Bibi S, Bijani A, Bodolica V, Bragazzi NL, Braithwaite D, Breitborde NJK, Breusov AV, Briko NI, Busse R, Cahuana-Hurtado L, Callander EJ, Cámera LA, Castañeda-Orjuela CA, Catalá-López F, Charan J, Chatterjee S, Chattu SK, Chattu VK, Chen S, Cicero AFG, Dadras O, Dahlawi SMA, Dai X, Dalal K, Dandona L, Dandona R, Davitoiu DV, De Neve JW, de Sá-Junior AR, Denova-Gutiérrez E, Dhamnetiya D, Dharmaratne SD, Doshmangir L, Dube J, Ehsani-Chimeh E, El Sayed Zaki M, El Tantawi M, Eskandarieh S, Farzadfar F, Ferede TY, Fischer F, Foigt NA, Freitas A, Friedman SD, Fukumoto T, Fullman N, Gaal PA, Gad MM, Garcia-Gordillo MA, Garg T, Ghafourifard M, Ghashghaee A, Gholamian A, Gholamrezanezhad A, Ghozali G, Gilani SA, Glăvan IR, Glushkova EV, Goharinezhad S, Golechha M, Goli S, Guha A, Gupta VB, Gupta VK, Haakenstad A, Haider MR, Hailu A, Hamidi S, Hanif A, Harapan H, Hartono RK, Hasaballah AI, Hassan S, Hassanein MH, Hayat K, Hegazy MI, Heidari G, Hendrie D, Heredia-Pi I, Herteliu C, Hezam K, Holla R, Hossain SJ, Hosseinzadeh M, Hostiuc S, Huda TM, Hwang BF, Iavicoli I, Idrisov B, Ilesanmi OS, Irvani SSN, Islam SMS, Ismail NE, Isola G, Jahani MA, Jahanmehr N, Jakovljevic M, Janodia MD, Javaheri T, Jayapal SK, Jayawardena R, Jazayeri SB, Jha RP, Jonas JB, Joo T, Joukar F, Jürisson M, Kaambwa B, Kalhor R, Kanchan T, Kandel H, Karami Matin B, Karimi SE, Kassahun G, Kayode GA, Kazemi Karyani A, Keikavoosi-Arani L, Khader YS, Khajuria H, Khalilov R, Khammarnia M, Khan J, Khubchandani J, Kianipour N, Kim GR, Kim YJ, Kisa A, Kisa S, Kohler S, Kosen S, Koteeswaran R, Koulmane Laxminarayana SL, Koyanagi A, Krishan K, Kumar GA, Kusuma D, Lamnisos D, Lansingh VC, Larsson AO, Lasrado S, Le LKD, Lee SWH, Lee YY, Lim SS, Lobo SW, Lozano R, Magdy Abd El Razek H, Magdy Abd El Razek M, Mahdavi MM, Majeed A, Makki A, Maleki A, Malekzadeh R, Manda AL, Mansour-Ghanaei F, Mansournia MA, Marrugo Arnedo CA, Martinez-Valle A, Masoumi SZ, Maude RJ, McKee M, Medina-Solís CE, Menezes RG, Meretoja A, Meretoja TJ, Mesregah MK, Mestrovic T, Milevska Kostova N, Miller TR, Mini GK, Mirica A, Mirrakhimov EM, Mohajer B, Mohamed TA, Mohammadi M, Mohammadian-Hafshejani A, Mohammed S, Moitra M, Mokdad AH, Molokhia M, Moni MA, Moradi Y, Morze J, Mousavi SM, Mpundu-Kaambwa C, Muriithi MK, Muthupandian S, Nagarajan AJ, Naimzada MD, Nangia V, Naqvi AA, Narayana AI, Nascimento BR, Naveed M, Nayak BP, Nazari J, Ndejjo R, Negoi I, Neupane Kandel S, Nguyen TH, Nonvignon J, Noubiap JJ, Nwatah VE, Oancea B, Ojelabi FAO, Olagunju AT, Olakunde BO, Olgiati S, Olusanya JO, Onwujekwe OE, Otoiu A, Otstavnov N, Otstavnov SS, Owolabi MO, Padubidri JR, Palladino R, Panda-Jonas S, Park EC, Pashazadeh Kan F, Pawar S, Pazoki Toroudi H, Pereira DM, Perianayagam A, Pesudovs K, Piccinelli C, Postma MJ, Prada SI, Rabiee M, Rabiee N, Rahim F, Rahimi-Movaghar V, Rahman MHU, Rahman M, Rahmani AM, Ram U, Ranabhat CL, Ranasinghe P, Rao CR, Rathi P, Rawaf DL, Rawaf S, Rawal L, Rawassizadeh R, Reiner Jr RC, Renzaho AMN, Reshmi B, Riaz MA, Ripon RK, Saad AM, Sahraian MA, Sahu M, Salama JS, Salehi S, Samy AM, Sanabria J, Sanmarchi F, Santos JV, Santric-Milicevic MM, Sathian B, Savic M, Saxena D, Sayyah M, Schwendicke F, Senthilkumaran S, Sepanlou SG, Seylani A, Shahabi S, Shaikh MA, Sheikh A, Shetty A, Shetty PH, Shibuya K, Shrime MG, Shuja KH, Singh JA, Skryabin VY, Skryabina AA, Soltani S, Soofi M, Spurlock EE, Stefan SC, Szerencsés V, Szócska M, Tabarés-Seisdedos R, Taddele BW, Tefera YG, Thavamani A, Tobe-Gai R, Topor-Madry R, Tovani-Palone MR, Tran BX, Tudor Car L, Ullah A, Ullah S, Umar N, Undurraga EA, Valdez PR, Vasankari TJ, Villafañe JH, Violante FS, Vlassov V, Vo B, Vollmer S, Vos T, Vu GT, Vu LG, Wamai RG, Werdecker A, Woldekidan MA, Wubishet BL, Xu G, Yaya S, Yazdi-Feyzabadi V, Yiğit V, Yip P, Yirdaw BW, Yonemoto N, Younis MZ, Yu C, Yunusa I, Zahirian Moghadam T, Zandian H, Zastrozhin MS, Zastrozhina A, Zhang ZJ, Ziapour A, Zuniga YMH, Hay SI, Murray CJL, Dieleman JL. Tracking development assistance for health and for COVID-19: a review of development assistance, government, out-of-pocket, and other private spending on health for 204 countries and territories, 1990-2050. Lancet 2021; 398:1317-1343. [PMID: 34562388 PMCID: PMC8457757 DOI: 10.1016/s0140-6736(21)01258-7] [Citation(s) in RCA: 56] [Impact Index Per Article: 18.7] [Reference Citation Analysis] [What about the content of this article? (0)] [Abstract] [MESH Headings] [Grants] [Track Full Text] [Download PDF] [Figures] [Journal Information] [Submit a Manuscript] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 01/22/2021] [Revised: 04/15/2021] [Accepted: 05/20/2021] [Indexed: 02/07/2023]
Abstract
BACKGROUND The rapid spread of COVID-19 renewed the focus on how health systems across the globe are financed, especially during public health emergencies. Development assistance is an important source of health financing in many low-income countries, yet little is known about how much of this funding was disbursed for COVID-19. We aimed to put development assistance for health for COVID-19 in the context of broader trends in global health financing, and to estimate total health spending from 1995 to 2050 and development assistance for COVID-19 in 2020. METHODS We estimated domestic health spending and development assistance for health to generate total health-sector spending estimates for 204 countries and territories. We leveraged data from the WHO Global Health Expenditure Database to produce estimates of domestic health spending. To generate estimates for development assistance for health, we relied on project-level disbursement data from the major international development agencies' online databases and annual financial statements and reports for information on income sources. To adjust our estimates for 2020 to include disbursements related to COVID-19, we extracted project data on commitments and disbursements from a broader set of databases (because not all of the data sources used to estimate the historical series extend to 2020), including the UN Office of Humanitarian Assistance Financial Tracking Service and the International Aid Transparency Initiative. We reported all the historic and future spending estimates in inflation-adjusted 2020 US$, 2020 US$ per capita, purchasing-power parity-adjusted US$ per capita, and as a proportion of gross domestic product. We used various models to generate future health spending to 2050. FINDINGS In 2019, health spending globally reached $8·8 trillion (95% uncertainty interval [UI] 8·7-8·8) or $1132 (1119-1143) per person. Spending on health varied within and across income groups and geographical regions. Of this total, $40·4 billion (0·5%, 95% UI 0·5-0·5) was development assistance for health provided to low-income and middle-income countries, which made up 24·6% (UI 24·0-25·1) of total spending in low-income countries. We estimate that $54·8 billion in development assistance for health was disbursed in 2020. Of this, $13·7 billion was targeted toward the COVID-19 health response. $12·3 billion was newly committed and $1·4 billion was repurposed from existing health projects. $3·1 billion (22·4%) of the funds focused on country-level coordination and $2·4 billion (17·9%) was for supply chain and logistics. Only $714·4 million (7·7%) of COVID-19 development assistance for health went to Latin America, despite this region reporting 34·3% of total recorded COVID-19 deaths in low-income or middle-income countries in 2020. Spending on health is expected to rise to $1519 (1448-1591) per person in 2050, although spending across countries is expected to remain varied. INTERPRETATION Global health spending is expected to continue to grow, but remain unequally distributed between countries. We estimate that development organisations substantially increased the amount of development assistance for health provided in 2020. Continued efforts are needed to raise sufficient resources to mitigate the pandemic for the most vulnerable, and to help curtail the pandemic for all. FUNDING Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation.
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Atri L, Morgan M, Harrell S, AlJaroudi W, Berman AE. Role of cardiac magnetic resonance imaging in the diagnosis and management of COVID-19 related myocarditis: Clinical and imaging considerations. World J Radiol 2021; 13:283-293. [PMID: 34630914 PMCID: PMC8473436 DOI: 10.4329/wjr.v13.i9.283] [Citation(s) in RCA: 1] [Impact Index Per Article: 0.3] [Reference Citation Analysis] [What about the content of this article? (0)] [Affiliation(s)] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Track Full Text] [Download PDF] [Journal Information] [Submit a Manuscript] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 02/28/2021] [Revised: 05/27/2021] [Accepted: 08/30/2021] [Indexed: 02/06/2023] Open
Abstract
There is a growing evidence of cardiovascular complications in coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) patients. As evidence accumulated of COVID-19 mediated inflammatory effects on the myocardium, substantial attention has been directed towards cardiovascular imaging modalities that facilitate this diagnosis. Cardiac magnetic resonance imaging (CMRI) is the gold standard for the detection of structural and functional myocardial alterations and its role in identifying patients with COVID-19 mediated cardiac injury is growing. Despite its utility in the diagnosis of myocardial injury in this population, CMRI’s impact on patient management is still evolving. This review provides a framework for the use of CMRI in diagnosis and management of COVID-19 patients from the perspective of a cardiologist. We review the role of CMRI in the management of both the acutely and remotely COVID-19 infected patient. We discuss patient selection for this imaging modality; T1, T2, and late gadolinium enhancement imaging techniques; and previously described CMRI findings in other cardiomyopathies with potential implications in COVID-19 recovered patients.
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Affiliation(s)
- Lavannya Atri
- Division of Cardiology, Medical College of Georgia, Augusta University, Augusta, GA 30912, United States
| | - Michael Morgan
- Division of Cardiology, Medical College of Georgia, Augusta University, Augusta, GA 30912, United States
| | - Sean Harrell
- Division of Cardiology, Medical College of Georgia, Augusta University, Augusta, GA 30912, United States
| | - Wael AlJaroudi
- Division of Cardiology, Medical College of Georgia, Augusta University, Augusta, GA 30912, United States
| | - Adam E Berman
- Division of Cardiology, Medical College of Georgia, Augusta University, Augusta, GA 30912, United States
- Division of Health Policy, Medical College of Georgia, Augusta University, Augusta, GA 30912, United States
- Division of Health Economics and Modeling, Medical College of Georgia, Augusta University, Augusta, GA 30912, United States
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Paulson KR, Kamath AM, Alam T, Bienhoff K, Abady GG, Abbas J, Abbasi-Kangevari M, Abbastabar H, Abd-Allah F, Abd-Elsalam SM, Abdoli A, Abedi A, Abolhassani H, Abreu LG, Abu-Gharbieh E, Abu-Rmeileh NME, Abushouk AI, Adamu AL, Adebayo OM, Adegbosin AE, Adekanmbi V, Adetokunboh OO, Adeyinka DA, Adsuar JC, Afshari K, Aghaali M, Agudelo-Botero M, Ahinkorah BO, Ahmad T, Ahmadi K, Ahmed MB, Aji B, Akalu Y, Akinyemi OO, Aklilu A, Al-Aly Z, Alam K, Alanezi FM, Alanzi TM, Alcalde-Rabanal JE, Al-Eyadhy A, Ali T, Alicandro G, Alif SM, Alipour V, Alizade H, Aljunid SM, Almasi-Hashiani A, Almasri NA, Al-Mekhlafi HM, Alonso J, Al-Raddadi RM, Altirkawi KA, Alumran AK, Alvis-Guzman N, Alvis-Zakzuk NJ, Ameyaw EK, Amini S, Amini-Rarani M, Amit AML, Amugsi DA, Ancuceanu R, Anderlini D, Andrei CL, Ansari F, Ansari-Moghaddam A, Antonio CAT, Antriyandarti E, Anvari D, Anwer R, Aqeel M, Arabloo J, Arab-Zozani M, Aripov T, Ärnlöv J, Artanti KD, Arzani A, Asaad M, Asadi-Aliabadi M, Asadi-Pooya AA, Asghari Jafarabadi M, Athari SS, Athari SM, Atnafu DD, Atreya A, Atteraya MS, Ausloos M, Awan AT, Ayala Quintanilla BP, Ayano G, Ayanore MA, Aynalem YA, Azari S, Azarian G, Azene ZN, B DB, Babaee E, Badiye AD, Baig AA, Banach M, Banik PC, Barker-Collo SL, Barqawi HJ, Bassat Q, Basu S, Baune BT, Bayati M, Bedi N, Beghi E, Beghi M, Bell ML, Bendak S, Bennett DA, Bensenor IM, Berhe K, Berman AE, Bezabih YM, Bhagavathula AS, Bhandari D, Bhardwaj N, Bhardwaj P, Bhattacharyya K, Bhattarai S, Bhutta ZA, Bikbov B, Biondi A, Birihane BM, Biswas RK, Bohlouli S, Bragazzi NL, Breusov AV, Brunoni AR, Burkart K, Burugina Nagaraja S, Busse R, Butt ZA, Caetano dos Santos FL, Cahuana-Hurtado L, Camargos P, Cámera LA, Cárdenas R, Carreras G, Carrero JJ, Carvalho F, Castaldelli-Maia JM, Castañeda-Orjuela CA, Castelpietra G, Cerin E, Chang JC, Chanie WF, Charan J, Chatterjee S, Chattu SK, Chattu VK, Chaturvedi S, Chen S, Cho DY, Choi JYJ, Chu DT, Ciobanu LG, Cirillo M, Conde J, Costa VM, Couto RAS, Dachew BA, Dahlawi SMA, Dai H, Dai X, Dandona L, Dandona R, Daneshpajouhnejad P, Darmstadt GL, Das JK, Dávila-Cervantes CA, Davis AC, Davletov K, De la Hoz FP, De Leo D, Deeba F, Denova-Gutiérrez E, Dervenis N, Desalew A, Deuba K, Dey S, Dharmaratne SD, Dhingra S, Dhungana GP, Dias da Silva D, Diaz D, Dorostkar F, Doshmangir L, Dubljanin E, Duraes AR, Eagan AW, Edinur HA, Efendi F, Eftekharzadeh S, El Sayed I, El Tantawi M, Elbarazi I, Elgendy IY, El-Jaafary SI, Emami A, Enany S, Eyawo O, Ezzikouri S, Faris PS, Farzadfar F, Fattahi N, Fauk NK, Fazlzadeh M, Feigin VL, Ferede TY, Fereshtehnejad SM, Fernandes E, Ferrara P, Filip I, Fischer F, Fisher JL, Foigt NA, Folayan MO, Foroutan M, Franklin RC, Freitas M, Friedman SD, Fukumoto T, Gad MM, Gaidhane AM, Gaidhane S, Gaihre S, Gallus S, Garcia-Basteiro AL, Garcia-Gordillo MA, Gardner WM, Gaspar Fonseca M, Gebremedhin KB, Getacher L, Ghashghaee A, Gholamian A, Gilani SA, Gill TK, Giussani G, Gnedovskaya EV, Godinho MA, Goel A, Golechha M, Gona PN, Gopalani SV, Goudarzi H, Grivna M, Gugnani HC, Guido D, Guimarães RA, Gupta RD, Gupta R, Hafezi-Nejad N, Haider MR, Haj-Mirzaian A, Hamidi S, Hanif A, Hankey GJ, Hargono A, Hasaballah AI, Hasan MM, Hasan SS, Hassan A, Hassanipour S, Hassankhani H, Havmoeller RJ, Hayat K, Heidari-Soureshjani R, Henry NJ, Herteliu C, Hole MK, Holla R, Hossain N, Hosseini M, Hosseinzadeh M, Hostiuc M, Hostiuc S, Househ M, Huang J, Humayun A, Hwang BF, Iavicoli I, Ibitoye SE, Ikuta KS, Ilesanmi OS, Ilic IM, Ilic MD, Inamdar S, Inbaraj LR, Iqbal K, Iqbal U, Islam MM, Islam SMS, Iso H, Iwagami M, Iwu CCD, Jaafari J, Jacobsen KH, Jagnoor J, Jain V, Janodia MD, Javaheri T, Javanmardi F, Jayaram S, Jayatilleke AU, Jenabi E, Jha RP, Ji JS, John O, Jonas JB, Joo T, Joseph N, Joukar F, Jozwiak JJ, Jürisson M, Kabir A, Kabir Z, Kalankesh LR, Kamyari N, Kanchan T, Kapoor N, Karami Matin B, Karch A, Karimi SE, Kassahun G, Kayode GA, Kazemi Karyani A, Kemmer L, Khalid N, Khalilov R, Khammarnia M, Khan EA, Khan G, Khan M, Khan MN, Khang YH, Khatab K, Khater AM, Khater MM, Khayamzadeh M, Khosravi A, Kim D, Kim YE, Kim YJ, Kimokoti RW, Kisa A, Kisa S, Kissoon N, Kopec JA, Kosen S, Koul PA, Koulmane Laxminarayana SL, Koyanagi A, Krishan K, Krishnamoorthy V, Kuate Defo B, Kucuk Bicer B, Kulkarni V, Kumar GA, Kumar M, Kumar N, Kurmi OP, Kusuma D, La Vecchia C, Lacey B, Lalloo R, Lami FH, Landires I, Larsson AO, Lasrado S, Lassi ZS, Lauriola P, Lee PH, Lee SWH, Lee YH, Leigh J, Leonardi M, Lewycka S, Li B, Li S, Liang J, Lim LL, Limenih MA, Lin RT, Liu X, Lodha R, Lopez AD, Lozano R, Lugo A, Lunevicius R, Mackay MT, Madhava Kunjathur S, Magnani FG, Mahadeshwara Prasad DR, Maheri M, Mahmoudi M, Majeed A, Maled V, Maleki A, Maleki S, Malekzadeh R, Malik AA, Malta DC, Mamun AA, Mansouri B, Mansournia MA, Martinez G, Martini S, Martins-Melo FR, Masoumi SZ, Maulik PK, McAlinden C, McGrath JJ, Medina-Solís CE, Mehrabi Nasab E, Mejia-Rodriguez F, Memish ZA, Mendoza W, Menezes RG, Mengesha EW, Mensah GA, Meretoja A, Meretoja TJ, Mersha AM, Mestrovic T, Miazgowski B, Miazgowski T, Michalek IM, Miller TR, Mini GK, Miri M, Mirica A, Mirrakhimov EM, Mirzaei H, Mirzaei M, Moazen B, Moghadaszadeh M, Mohajer B, Mohamad O, Mohammad Y, Mohammadi SM, Mohammadian-Hafshejani A, Mohammed S, Mokdad AH, Molokhia M, Monasta L, Mondello S, Moni MA, Moore CE, Moradi G, Moradi M, Moradzadeh R, Moraga P, Morawska L, Morrison SD, Mosser JF, Mousavi Khaneghah A, Mustafa G, Naderi M, Nagarajan AJ, Nagaraju SP, Naghavi M, Naghshtabrizi B, Naimzada MD, Nangia V, Narasimha Swamy S, Nascimento BR, Naveed M, Nazari J, Ndejjo R, Negoi I, Negoi RI, Nena E, Nepal S, Netsere HB, Nguefack-Tsague G, Ngunjiri JW, Nguyen CTY, Nguyen CT, Nguyen HLT, Nigatu YT, Nigussie SN, Nixon MR, Nnaji CA, Nomura S, Noor NM, Noubiap JJ, Nuñez-Samudio V, Nwatah VE, Oancea B, Odukoya OO, Ogbo FA, Olusanya BO, Olusanya JO, Omar Bali A, Onwujekwe OE, Ortiz A, Otoiu A, Otstavnov N, Otstavnov SS, Owolabi MO, P A M, Padubidri JR, Pakhale S, Pakshir K, Pal PK, Palladino R, Pana A, Panda-Jonas S, Pandey A, Pandey A, Pandi-Perumal SR, Pangaribuan HU, Pardo-Montaño AM, Park EK, Patel SK, Patton GC, Pawar S, Pazoki Toroudi H, Peden AE, Pepito VCF, Peprah EK, Pereira J, Pérez-Gómez J, Perico N, Pesudovs K, Pilgrim T, Pinheiro M, Piradov MA, Pirsaheb M, Platts-Mills JA, Pokhrel KN, Postma MJ, Pourjafar H, Prada SI, Prakash S, Pupillo E, Quazi Syed Z, Rabiee N, Radfar A, Rafiee A, Rafiei A, Raggi A, Rahimzadeh S, Rahman MHU, Rahmani AM, Ramezanzadeh K, Rana J, Ranabhat CL, Rao SJ, Rasella D, Rastogi P, Rathi P, Rawaf DL, Rawaf S, Rawasia WF, Rawassizadeh R, Reiner Jr RC, Remuzzi G, Renzaho AMN, Reshmi B, Resnikoff S, Rezaei N, Rezaei N, Rezapour A, Riahi SM, Ribeiro D, Rickard J, Roever L, Ronfani L, Rothenbacher D, Rubagotti E, Rumisha SF, Ryan PM, Saddik B, Sadeghi E, Saeedi Moghaddam S, Sagar R, Sahebkar A, Salahshoor MR, Salehi S, Salem MR, Salimzadeh H, Salomon JA, Samodra YL, Samy AM, Sanabria J, Santric-Milicevic MM, Saraswathy SYI, Sarker AR, Sarrafzadegan N, Sarveazad A, Sathian B, Sathish T, Sattin D, Saxena S, Saya GK, Saylan M, Schiavolin S, Schlaich MP, Schwebel DC, Schwendicke F, Senthilkumaran S, Sepanlou SG, Serván-Mori E, Sha F, Shafaat O, Shahabi S, Shahbaz M, Shaheen AA, Shahid I, Shaikh MA, Shakiba S, Shalash AS, Shams-Beyranvand M, Shannawaz M, Sharafi K, Sheikh A, Sheikhbahaei S, Shiferaw WS, Shigematsu M, Shin JI, Shiri R, Shiue I, Shuval K, Siddiqi TJ, Sidemo NB, Sigfusdottir ID, Sigurvinsdottir R, Silva JP, Silverberg JIS, Simonetti B, Singh BB, Singh JA, Singhal D, Sinha DN, Skiadaresi E, Skryabin VY, Skryabina AA, Sleet DA, Sobaih BH, Sobhiyeh MR, Soltani S, Soriano JB, Spurlock EE, Sreeramareddy CT, Steiropoulos P, Stokes MA, Stortecky S, Sufiyan MB, Suliankatchi Abdulkader R, Sulo G, Swope CB, Sykes BL, Szeto MD, Szócska M, Tabarés-Seisdedos R, Tadesse EG, Taherkhani A, Tamiru AT, Tareque MI, Tehrani-Banihashemi A, Temsah MH, Tesfay FH, Tessema GA, Tessema ZT, Thankappan KR, Thapar R, Tolani MA, Tovani-Palone MR, Traini E, Tran BX, Tripathy JP, Tsapparellas G, Tsatsakis A, Tudor Car L, Uddin R, Ullah A, Umeokonkwo CD, Unim B, Unnikrishnan B, Upadhyay E, Usman MS, Vacante M, Vaezi M, Valadan Tahbaz S, Valdez PR, Vasankari TJ, Venketasubramanian N, Verma M, Violante FS, Vlassov V, Vo B, Vu GT, Wado YD, Waheed Y, Wamai RG, Wang Y, Wang Y, Wang YP, Ward P, Werdecker A, Westerman R, Wickramasinghe ND, Wilner LB, Wiysonge CS, Wu AM, Wu C, Xie Y, Yahyazadeh Jabbari SH, Yamagishi K, Yandrapalli S, Yaya S, Yazdi-Feyzabadi V, Yip P, Yonemoto N, Yoon SJ, Younis MZ, Yousefi Z, Yousefinezhadi T, Yu C, Yusuf SS, Zaidi SS, Zaman SB, Zamani M, Zamanian M, Zastrozhin MS, Zastrozhina A, Zhang Y, Zhang ZJ, Zhao XJG, Ziapour A, Hay SI, Murray CJL, Wang H, Kassebaum NJ. Global, regional, and national progress towards Sustainable Development Goal 3.2 for neonatal and child health: all-cause and cause-specific mortality findings from the Global Burden of Disease Study 2019. Lancet 2021; 398:870-905. [PMID: 34416195 PMCID: PMC8429803 DOI: 10.1016/s0140-6736(21)01207-1] [Citation(s) in RCA: 183] [Impact Index Per Article: 61.0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [What about the content of this article? (0)] [Abstract] [MESH Headings] [Grants] [Track Full Text] [Download PDF] [Figures] [Journal Information] [Submit a Manuscript] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 01/11/2021] [Revised: 05/25/2021] [Accepted: 05/25/2021] [Indexed: 02/07/2023]
Abstract
BACKGROUND Sustainable Development Goal 3.2 has targeted elimination of preventable child mortality, reduction of neonatal death to less than 12 per 1000 livebirths, and reduction of death of children younger than 5 years to less than 25 per 1000 livebirths, for each country by 2030. To understand current rates, recent trends, and potential trajectories of child mortality for the next decade, we present the Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study (GBD) 2019 findings for all-cause mortality and cause-specific mortality in children younger than 5 years of age, with multiple scenarios for child mortality in 2030 that include the consideration of potential effects of COVID-19, and a novel framework for quantifying optimal child survival. METHODS We completed all-cause mortality and cause-specific mortality analyses from 204 countries and territories for detailed age groups separately, with aggregated mortality probabilities per 1000 livebirths computed for neonatal mortality rate (NMR) and under-5 mortality rate (U5MR). Scenarios for 2030 represent different potential trajectories, notably including potential effects of the COVID-19 pandemic and the potential impact of improvements preferentially targeting neonatal survival. Optimal child survival metrics were developed by age, sex, and cause of death across all GBD location-years. The first metric is a global optimum and is based on the lowest observed mortality, and the second is a survival potential frontier that is based on stochastic frontier analysis of observed mortality and Healthcare Access and Quality Index. FINDINGS Global U5MR decreased from 71·2 deaths per 1000 livebirths (95% uncertainty interval [UI] 68·3-74·0) in 2000 to 37·1 (33·2-41·7) in 2019 while global NMR correspondingly declined more slowly from 28·0 deaths per 1000 live births (26·8-29·5) in 2000 to 17·9 (16·3-19·8) in 2019. In 2019, 136 (67%) of 204 countries had a U5MR at or below the SDG 3.2 threshold and 133 (65%) had an NMR at or below the SDG 3.2 threshold, and the reference scenario suggests that by 2030, 154 (75%) of all countries could meet the U5MR targets, and 139 (68%) could meet the NMR targets. Deaths of children younger than 5 years totalled 9·65 million (95% UI 9·05-10·30) in 2000 and 5·05 million (4·27-6·02) in 2019, with the neonatal fraction of these deaths increasing from 39% (3·76 million [95% UI 3·53-4·02]) in 2000 to 48% (2·42 million; 2·06-2·86) in 2019. NMR and U5MR were generally higher in males than in females, although there was no statistically significant difference at the global level. Neonatal disorders remained the leading cause of death in children younger than 5 years in 2019, followed by lower respiratory infections, diarrhoeal diseases, congenital birth defects, and malaria. The global optimum analysis suggests NMR could be reduced to as low as 0·80 (95% UI 0·71-0·86) deaths per 1000 livebirths and U5MR to 1·44 (95% UI 1·27-1·58) deaths per 1000 livebirths, and in 2019, there were as many as 1·87 million (95% UI 1·35-2·58; 37% [95% UI 32-43]) of 5·05 million more deaths of children younger than 5 years than the survival potential frontier. INTERPRETATION Global child mortality declined by almost half between 2000 and 2019, but progress remains slower in neonates and 65 (32%) of 204 countries, mostly in sub-Saharan Africa and south Asia, are not on track to meet either SDG 3.2 target by 2030. Focused improvements in perinatal and newborn care, continued and expanded delivery of essential interventions such as vaccination and infection prevention, an enhanced focus on equity, continued focus on poverty reduction and education, and investment in strengthening health systems across the development spectrum have the potential to substantially improve U5MR. Given the widespread effects of COVID-19, considerable effort will be required to maintain and accelerate progress. FUNDING Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation.
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Newton DC, Arthur ME, Berman AE. Private equity in anesthesiology - Indicators for future evaluation. J Clin Anesth 2021; 75:110447. [PMID: 34252730 DOI: 10.1016/j.jclinane.2021.110447] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [What about the content of this article? (0)] [Affiliation(s)] [Key Words] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 05/02/2021] [Revised: 06/23/2021] [Accepted: 06/28/2021] [Indexed: 10/20/2022]
Affiliation(s)
- David C Newton
- Medical College of Georgia, Augusta, GA 30912, United States of America.
| | - Mary E Arthur
- Department of Anesthesiology and Perioperative Medicine, Medical College of Georgia, Augusta, GA 30912, United States of America
| | - Adam E Berman
- Division of Cardiology, Division of Health Economics and Modeling, Medical College of Georgia, Augusta, GA 30912, United States of America
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Kendrick PJ, Reitsma MB, Abbasi-Kangevari M, Abdoli A, Abdollahi M, Abedi A, Abhilash ES, Aboyans V, Adebayo OM, Advani SM, Ahinkorah BO, Ahmad S, Ahmadi K, Ahmed H, Aji B, Akalu Y, Akunna CJ, Alahdab F, Al-Aly Z, Alanezi FM, Alanzi TM, Alhabib KF, Ali T, Alif SM, Alipour V, Aljunid SM, Alomari MA, Amin TT, Amini S, Amu H, Ancuceanu R, Anderson JA, Andrei CL, Andrei T, Ansari-Moghaddam A, Antony B, Anvari D, Arabloo J, Arian ND, Arora M, Artanti KD, Asmare WN, Atnafu DD, Ausloos M, Awan AT, Ayano G, Aynalem GL, Azari S, B DB, Badiye AD, Baig AA, Banach M, Banerjee SK, Barker-Collo SL, Bärnighausen TW, Barqawi HJ, Basu S, Bayati M, Bazargan-Hejazi S, Bekuma TT, Bennett DA, Bensenor IM, Benzian H, Benziger CP, Berman AE, Bhagavathula AS, Bhala N, Bhardwaj N, Bhardwaj P, Bhattacharyya K, Bibi S, Bijani A, Biondi A, Braithwaite D, Brenner H, Brunoni AR, Burkart K, Burugina Nagaraja S, Butt ZA, Caetano dos Santos FL, Car J, Carreras G, Castaldelli-Maia JM, Cattaruzza MSS, Chang JC, Chaturvedi P, Chen S, Chido-Amajuoyi OG, Chu DT, Chung SC, Ciobanu LG, Costa VM, Couto RAS, Dagnew B, Dai X, Damasceno AAM, Damiani G, Dandona L, Dandona R, Daneshpajouhnejad P, Darega Gela J, Derbew Molla M, Desta AA, Dharmaratne SD, Dhimal M, Eagan AW, Ebrahimi Kalan M, Edvardsson K, Effiong A, El Tantawi M, Elbarazi I, Esmaeilnejad S, Fadhil I, Faraon EJA, Farwati M, Farzadfar F, Fazlzadeh M, Feigin VL, Feldman R, Filip I, Filippidis F, Fischer F, Flor LS, Foigt NA, Folayan MO, Foroutan M, Gad MM, Gallus S, Geberemariyam BS, Gebregiorgis BG, Getacher L, Getachew Obsa A, Ghafourifard M, Ghanei Gheshlagh R, Ghashghaee A, Ghith N, Gil GF, Gill PS, Ginawi IA, Goharinezhad S, Golechha M, Gopalani SV, Gorini G, Grivna M, Guha A, Guimarães RA, Guo Y, Gupta RD, Gupta R, Gupta T, Gupta V, Hafezi-Nejad N, Haider MR, Hamadeh RR, Hankey GJ, Hargono A, Hay SI, Heidari G, Herteliu C, Hezam K, Hird TR, Holla R, Hosseinzadeh M, Hostiuc M, Hostiuc S, Househ M, Hsiao T, Huang J, Ibeneme CU, Ibitoye SE, Ilic IM, Ilic MD, Inbaraj LR, Irvani SSN, Islam JY, Islam RM, Islam SMS, Islami F, Iso H, Itumalla R, Jaafari J, Jain V, Jakovljevic M, Jang SI, Jayaram S, Jeemon P, Jha RP, Jonas JB, Jürisson M, Kabir A, Kabir Z, Kalankesh LR, Kanchan T, Kandel H, Kapoor N, Karch A, Karimi SE, Kebede KM, Kelkay B, Kennedy RD, Khader YS, Khan EA, Khayamzadeh M, Kim GR, Kimokoti RW, Kivimäki M, Kosen S, Koulmane Laxminarayana SL, Koyanagi A, Krishan K, Kugbey N, Kumar GA, Kumar N, Kurmi OP, Kusuma D, Lacey B, Landires I, Lasrado S, Lauriola P, Lee DW, Lee YH, Leung J, Li S, Lin H, Liu W, Lugo A, Madhava Kunjathur S, Majeed A, Maleki A, Malekzadeh R, Malta DC, Mamun AA, Manjunatha N, Mansouri B, Mansournia MA, Martini S, Mathur MR, Mathur P, Mazidi M, McKee M, Medina-Solís CE, Mehata S, Mendoza W, Menezes RG, Miazgowski B, Michalek IM, Miller TR, Mini GK, Mirica A, Mirrakhimov EM, Mirzaei H, Misra S, Mohammad Y, Mohammadian-Hafshejani A, Mohammed S, Mokdad AH, Molokhia M, Monasta L, Moni MA, Moradzadeh R, Morrison SD, Mossie TB, Mubarik S, Mullany EC, Murray CJL, Nagaraju SP, Naghavi M, Naik N, Nalini M, Nangia V, Naqvi AA, Narasimha Swamy S, Naveed M, Nazari J, Nduaguba SO, Negoi RI, Neupane Kandel S, Nguyen HLT, Nigatu YT, Nixon MR, Nnaji CA, Noubiap JJ, Nowak C, Nuñez-Samudio V, Ogbo FA, Oguntade AS, Oh IH, Olagunju AT, Owolabi MO, P A M, Pakshir K, Pana A, Panagiotakos D, Panda-Jonas S, Pandey A, Parekh U, Park EC, Park EK, Pashazadeh Kan F, Pathak M, Pawar S, Pestell RG, Pham HQ, Pinheiro M, Pokhrel KN, Pourshams A, Prashant A, Radfar A, Rahimi-Movaghar V, Rahman MHU, Rahman MA, Rahmani AM, Ram P, Rana J, Ranabhat CL, Rathi P, Rawaf DL, Rawaf S, Rawassizadeh R, Renzaho AMN, Rezapour A, Riaz MA, Roever L, Ronfani L, Roshandel G, Roy A, Roy B, Saddik B, Sahebkar A, Salehi S, Salimzadeh H, Samy AM, Sanabria J, Santric-Milicevic MM, Sao Jose BP, Sathian B, Sawhney M, Saya GK, Schwendicke F, Seidu AA, Senthil Kumar N, Sepanlou SG, Shafaat O, Shah SM, Shaikh MA, Shannawaz M, Sharafi K, Sheikh A, Sheikhbahaei S, Shigematsu M, Shiri R, Shishani K, Shivakumar KM, Shivalli S, Shrestha R, Siabani S, Sidemo NB, Sigfusdottir ID, Sigurvinsdottir R, Silva JP, Singh A, Singh JA, Singh V, Sinha DN, Skryabin VY, Skryabina AA, Soroush A, Soyiri IN, Sreeramareddy CT, Stein DJ, Steiropoulos P, Stortecky S, Straif K, Suliankatchi Abdulkader R, Sulo G, Sundström J, Tabuchi T, Tadesse EG, Tamiru AT, Tareke M, Tareque MI, Tarigan IU, Thakur B, Thankappan KR, Thapar R, Tolani MA, Tovani-Palone MR, Tran BX, Tripathy JP, Tsegaye GW, Tymeson HD, Ullah S, Unim B, Updike RL, Uthman OA, Vacante M, Vardavas C, Venketasubramanian N, Verma M, Vidale S, Vo B, Vu GT, Waheed Y, Wang Y, Welding K, Werdecker A, Whisnant JL, Wickramasinghe ND, Wubishet BL, Yamagishi K, Yano Y, Yazdi-Feyzabadi V, Yeshaw Y, Yimmer MZ, Yonemoto N, Yousefi Z, Yu C, Yunusa I, Yusefzadeh H, Zaman MS, Zamani M, Zamanian M, Zastrozhin MS, Zastrozhina A, Zhang J, Zhang ZJ, Zhong C, Zuniga YMH, Gakidou E. Spatial, temporal, and demographic patterns in prevalence of chewing tobacco use in 204 countries and territories, 1990-2019: a systematic analysis from the Global Burden of Disease Study 2019. Lancet Public Health 2021; 6:e482-e499. [PMID: 34051920 PMCID: PMC8251505 DOI: 10.1016/s2468-2667(21)00065-7] [Citation(s) in RCA: 32] [Impact Index Per Article: 10.7] [Reference Citation Analysis] [What about the content of this article? (0)] [Abstract] [MESH Headings] [Grants] [Track Full Text] [Figures] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 02/11/2021] [Revised: 03/12/2021] [Accepted: 03/16/2021] [Indexed: 02/07/2023]
Abstract
BACKGROUND Chewing tobacco and other types of smokeless tobacco use have had less attention from the global health community than smoked tobacco use. However, the practice is popular in many parts of the world and has been linked to several adverse health outcomes. Understanding trends in prevalence with age, over time, and by location and sex is important for policy setting and in relation to monitoring and assessing commitment to the WHO Framework Convention on Tobacco Control. METHODS We estimated prevalence of chewing tobacco use as part of the Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study 2019 using a modelling strategy that used information on multiple types of smokeless tobacco products. We generated a time series of prevalence of chewing tobacco use among individuals aged 15 years and older from 1990 to 2019 in 204 countries and territories, including age-sex specific estimates. We also compared these trends to those of smoked tobacco over the same time period. FINDINGS In 2019, 273·9 million (95% uncertainty interval 258·5 to 290·9) people aged 15 years and older used chewing tobacco, and the global age-standardised prevalence of chewing tobacco use was 4·72% (4·46 to 5·01). 228·2 million (213·6 to 244·7; 83·29% [82·15 to 84·42]) chewing tobacco users lived in the south Asia region. Prevalence among young people aged 15-19 years was over 10% in seven locations in 2019. Although global age-standardised prevalence of smoking tobacco use decreased significantly between 1990 and 2019 (annualised rate of change: -1·21% [-1·26 to -1·16]), similar progress was not observed for chewing tobacco (0·46% [0·13 to 0·79]). Among the 12 highest prevalence countries (Bangladesh, Bhutan, Cambodia, India, Madagascar, Marshall Islands, Myanmar, Nepal, Pakistan, Palau, Sri Lanka, and Yemen), only Yemen had a significant decrease in the prevalence of chewing tobacco use, which was among males between 1990 and 2019 (-0·94% [-1·72 to -0·14]), compared with nine of 12 countries that had significant decreases in the prevalence of smoking tobacco. Among females, none of these 12 countries had significant decreases in prevalence of chewing tobacco use, whereas seven of 12 countries had a significant decrease in the prevalence of tobacco smoking use for the period. INTERPRETATION Chewing tobacco remains a substantial public health problem in several regions of the world, and predominantly in south Asia. We found little change in the prevalence of chewing tobacco use between 1990 and 2019, and that control efforts have had much larger effects on the prevalence of smoking tobacco use than on chewing tobacco use in some countries. Mitigating the health effects of chewing tobacco requires stronger regulations and policies that specifically target use of chewing tobacco, especially in countries with high prevalence. FUNDING Bloomberg Philanthropies and the Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation.
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Berman AE, Miller DD, Rahn DW, Hess DC, Thompson MA, Mossialos EA, Waller JL. A County-Level Analysis of Socioeconomic and Clinical Predictors of COVID-19 Incidence and Case-Fatality Rates in Georgia, March-September 2020. Public Health Rep 2021; 136:626-635. [PMID: 34111358 DOI: 10.1177/00333549211023267] [Citation(s) in RCA: 2] [Impact Index Per Article: 0.7] [Reference Citation Analysis] [What about the content of this article? (0)] [Affiliation(s)] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Indexed: 12/27/2022] Open
Abstract
OBJECTIVES The global COVID-19 pandemic has affected various populations differently. We investigated the relationship between socioeconomic determinants of health obtained from the Robert Wood Johnson Foundation County Health Rankings and COVID-19 incidence and mortality at the county level in Georgia. METHODS We analyzed data on COVID-19 incidence and case-fatality rates (CFRs) from the Georgia Department of Public Health from March 1 through August 31, 2020. We used repeated measures generalized linear mixed models to determine differences over time in Georgia counties among quartile health rankings of health outcomes, health behaviors, clinical care, social and economic factors, and physical environment. RESULTS COVID-19 incidence per 100 000 population increased across all quartile county groups for all health rankings (range, 23.1-51.6 in May to 688.4-1062.0 in August). COVID-19 CFRs per 100 000 population peaked in April and May (range, 3312-6835) for all health rankings, declined in June and July (range, 827-5202), and increased again in August (range, 1877-3310). Peak CFRs occurred later in counties with low health rankings for health behavior and clinical care and in counties with high health rankings for social and economic factors and physical environment. All interactions between the health ranking quartile variables and month were significant (P < .001). County-level Gini indices were associated with significantly higher rates of COVID-19 incidence (P < .001) but not CFRs. CONCLUSIONS From March through August 2020, COVID-19 incidence rose in Georgia's counties independent of health rankings categorization. Differences in time to peak CFRs differed at the county level based upon key health rankings. Public health interventions should incorporate unique strategies to improve COVID-19-related patient outcomes in these environments.
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Affiliation(s)
- Adam E Berman
- 1421 Division of Health Economics and Modeling, Division of Cardiology, Medical College of Georgia, Augusta, GA, USA.,Department of Population Health Sciences, Medical College of Georgia, Augusta, GA, USA
| | - D Douglas Miller
- Division of Health Policy, Division of Cardiology, Medical College of Georgia, Augusta, GA, USA
| | - Daniel W Rahn
- Department of Population Health Sciences, Medical College of Georgia, Augusta, GA, USA.,University of Arkansas Medical Sciences, Little Rock, AR, USA
| | - David C Hess
- Department of Neurology, Medical College of Georgia, Augusta, GA, USA
| | - Mark A Thompson
- Hull College of Business, Augusta University, Augusta, GA, USA
| | - Elias A Mossialos
- 4905 Department of Health Policy, London School of Economics and Political Science, London, England, UK
| | - Jennifer L Waller
- Department of Population Health Sciences, Division of Biostatistics and Data Science, Medical College of Georgia, Augusta, GA, USA
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Madera-Acosta A, Johnson-Wall H, Carbone LD, Meszaros A, Berman AE, White J. Cannabidiol (CBD) oil toxicity mimicking extraglandular complications of Sjögren's syndrome. Rheumatol Adv Pract 2021; 5:rkab010. [PMID: 33748661 PMCID: PMC7962723 DOI: 10.1093/rap/rkab010] [Citation(s) in RCA: 5] [Impact Index Per Article: 1.7] [Reference Citation Analysis] [What about the content of this article? (0)] [Affiliation(s)] [Track Full Text] [Download PDF] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Accepted: 02/03/2021] [Indexed: 01/02/2023] Open
Affiliation(s)
- Adria Madera-Acosta
- Division of Rheumatology, Medical College of Georgia, Augusta University.,Charlie Norwood Veterans Affairs Medical Center
| | | | - Laura D Carbone
- Division of Rheumatology, Medical College of Georgia, Augusta University.,Charlie Norwood Veterans Affairs Medical Center
| | - Adam Meszaros
- Division of Rheumatology, Medical College of Georgia, Augusta University.,Charlie Norwood Veterans Affairs Medical Center
| | - Adam E Berman
- Division of Cardiology, Medical College of Georgia, Augusta University, Augusta, GA, USA
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Coughlin SS, Yiǧiter A, Xu H, Berman AE, Chen J. Early detection of change patterns in COVID-19 incidence and the implementation of public health policies: A multi-national study. Public Health Pract (Oxf) 2020; 2:100064. [PMID: 33969330 PMCID: PMC7754913 DOI: 10.1016/j.puhip.2020.100064] [Citation(s) in RCA: 10] [Impact Index Per Article: 2.5] [Reference Citation Analysis] [What about the content of this article? (0)] [Affiliation(s)] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Track Full Text] [Download PDF] [Figures] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 08/31/2020] [Revised: 11/01/2020] [Accepted: 11/26/2020] [Indexed: 01/06/2023] Open
Abstract
Objectives The COVID-19 pandemic caused by the novel SARS-CoV-2 coronavirus has drastically altered the global realities. Harnessing national scale data from the COVID-19 pandemic may better inform policy makers in decision making surrounding the reopening of society. We examined country-level, daily-confirmed, COVID-19 case data from the World Health Organization (WHO) to better understand the comparative dynamics associated with the ongoing global pandemic at a national scale. Study design Observational study. Methods We included data from 20 countries in Europe, the Americas, Africa, Eastern Mediterranean and West Pacific regions, and obtained the aggregated daily new case data for the European Union including 27 countries. We utilized an innovative analytic approach by applying statistical change point models, which have been previously employed to model volatility in stock markets, changes in genomic data, and data dynamics in other scientific disciplines, to segment the transformed case data. This allowed us to identify possible change or turning points as indicated by the dynamics of daily COVID-19 incidences. We also employed B-spline regression models to express the estimated (predicted) trend of daily new incidences for each country’s COVID-19 disease burden with the identified key change points in the model. Results We identified subtle, yet different change points (translated to actual calendar days) by either the mean and variance change point model with small p-values or by a Bayesian online change point algorithm with large posterior probability in the trend of COVID-19 incidences for different countries. We correlated these statistically identified change points with evidence from the literature surrounding these countries’ policies regarding opening and closing of their societies in an effort to slow the spread of COVID-19. The days when change points were detected were ahead of the actual policy implementation days, and in most of the countries included in this study the decision lagged the change point days too long to prevent potential widespread extension of the pandemic. Conclusions Our models describe the behavior of COVID-19 prevalence at a national scale and identify changes in national disease burden as relating to chronological changes in restrictive societal activity. Globally, social distancing measures may have been most effective in smaller countries with single governmental and public health organizational structures. Further research examining the impact of heterogeneous governmental responses to pandemic management appears warranted. Daily-confirmed, new COVID-19 case data are obtained from WHO for 20 individual countries in Europe, the Americas, Africa, Eastern Mediterranean and West Pacific regions, and for the European Union. An innovative analytic approach that uses change point models to identify possible turning points is utilized to better understand the comparative dynamics of the pandemic at a national scale based on the data up to June 5th, 2020. The estimated trend of daily new incidences for each country’s COVID-19 disease burden is provided and confidence intervals for average case numbers in periods between two identified turning days were obtained. We correlated these statistically identified change points with evidence from the literature surrounding these countries’ policies regarding opening and closing of their societies in an effort to slow the spread of COVID-19. The days when change patterns were detected were ahead of the actual policy implementation days, and in most of the countries included in this study the decision to implement a public health policy lagged the change point days too long to prevent potential widespread of the pandemic.
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Affiliation(s)
- Steven S Coughlin
- Division of Epidemiology, Department of Population Health Sciences, Medical College of Georgia, Augusta University, Augusta, GA, USA
| | - Ayten Yiǧiter
- Department of Statistics, Faculty of Science, Hacettepe University, Beytepe, Ankara, Turkey
| | - Hongyan Xu
- Division of Biostatistics and Data Science, Department of Population Health Sciences, Medical College of Georgia, Augusta University, Augusta, GA, USA
| | - Adam E Berman
- Division of Health Economics and Modeling, Department of Population Health Sciences, Medical College of Georgia, Augusta University, Augusta, GA, USA.,Division of Cardiology, Departments of Medicine and Pediatrics, Medical College of Georgia, Augusta University, Augusta, GA, USA
| | - Jie Chen
- Division of Biostatistics and Data Science, Department of Population Health Sciences, Medical College of Georgia, Augusta University, Augusta, GA, USA
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Schroeder C, Drevets P, Chung JM, Shafer M, Lee R, Berman AE. Potential Financial Impact of Incidental Cardiac Pathology Detected During Lung Cancer Screening. Am Surg 2020; 87:557-560. [PMID: 33108890 DOI: 10.1177/0003134820952379] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [What about the content of this article? (0)] [Affiliation(s)] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Indexed: 11/16/2022]
Abstract
BACKGROUND Lung cancer screening (LCS) is broadly accepted. Screening also identifies incidental cardiac findings (S findings) that need follow-up. We report the magnitude of the potential downstream revenue generated by appropriate S finding management after 4 years of our free LCS program. MATERIALS AND METHODS A retrospective database and chart review of a single-center free LCS program in the underserved southeast were performed. All patients who were enrolled in the screening required a primary care physician (PCP) as part of the decision-making model. Referrals to cardiac specialists for S findings found on LCS were recorded. Cost analysis was performed to track potential downstream revenue generated for the institution based upon Medicare allowable or Diagnosis-related group calculations. RESULTS One thousand one hundred thirty-two scans were reviewed with 262 (23%) yielding positive S findings for 1 or more organ systems. 181/262 (69%) patients had cardiac findings, only 64/181 (35%) of these patients were referred to cardiology specialists by the PCP. The total Medicare billable amount for all cardiac referrals/interventions was $284 379, representing 35% of the potential billable amount of $804 260. Percutaneous coronary intervention (PCI) was the highest billable amount at $18 568. Eight percent of the patients undergoing appropriate cardiac evaluation required a PCI. If not for the screening and cardiac specialist referral, this patient group may not have received appropriate cardiovascular diagnosis and treatment. DISCUSSION Lung cancer screening also identifies patients with significant cardiac disease, many of whom may not be appropriately referred. Identification and treatment of incidentally noted cardiovascular findings may both improve patient care and justify supporting free LCS programs.
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Affiliation(s)
- Carsten Schroeder
- Department of Surgery, Medical College of Georgia, Augusta, GA, USA.,Department of Surgery, Charles George VA Medical Center, Asheville, NC, USA
| | - Peter Drevets
- Department of Surgery, Medical College of Georgia, Augusta, GA, USA
| | - Jane M Chung
- Department of Surgery, Medical College of Georgia, Augusta, GA, USA
| | - Melissa Shafer
- Department of Surgery, Medical College of Georgia, Augusta, GA, USA
| | - Richard Lee
- Department of Surgery, Medical College of Georgia, Augusta, GA, USA
| | - Adam E Berman
- Department of Medicine, Medical College of Georgia, Augusta, GA, USA.,Department of Population Health Sciences, Medical College of Georgia, Augusta, GA, USA
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Lozano R, Fullman N, Mumford JE, Knight M, Barthelemy CM, Abbafati C, Abbastabar H, Abd-Allah F, Abdollahi M, Abedi A, Abolhassani H, Abosetugn AE, Abreu LG, Abrigo MRM, Abu Haimed AK, Abushouk AI, Adabi M, Adebayo OM, Adekanmbi V, Adelson J, Adetokunboh OO, Adham D, Advani SM, Afshin A, Agarwal G, Agasthi P, Aghamir SMK, Agrawal A, Ahmad T, Akinyemi RO, Alahdab F, Al-Aly Z, Alam K, Albertson SB, Alemu YM, Alhassan RK, Ali M, Ali S, Alipour V, Aljunid SM, Alla F, Almadi MAH, Almasi A, Almasi-Hashiani A, Almasri NA, Al-Mekhlafi HM, Almulhim AM, Alonso J, Al-Raddadi RM, Altirkawi KA, Alvis-Guzman N, Alvis-Zakzuk NJ, Amini S, Amini-Rarani M, Amiri F, Amit AML, Amugsi DA, Ancuceanu R, Anderlini D, Andrei CL, Androudi S, Ansari F, Ansari-Moghaddam A, Antonio CAT, Antony CM, Antriyandarti E, Anvari D, Anwer R, Arabloo J, Arab-Zozani M, Aravkin AY, Aremu O, Ärnlöv J, Asaad M, Asadi-Aliabadi M, Asadi-Pooya AA, Ashbaugh C, Athari SS, Atout MMW, Ausloos M, Avila-Burgos L, Ayala Quintanilla BP, Ayano G, Ayanore MA, Aynalem YA, Aynalem GL, Ayza MA, Azari S, Azzopardi PS, B DB, Babaee E, Badiye AD, Bahrami MA, Baig AA, Bakhshaei MH, Bakhtiari A, Bakkannavar SM, Balachandran A, Balassyano S, Banach M, Banerjee SK, Banik PC, Bante AB, Bante SA, Barker-Collo SL, Bärnighausen TW, Barrero LH, Bassat Q, Basu S, Baune BT, Bayati M, Baye BA, Bedi N, Beghi E, Behzadifar M, Bekuma TTT, Bell ML, Bensenor IM, Berman AE, Bernabe E, Bernstein RS, Bhagavathula AS, Bhandari D, Bhardwaj P, Bhat AG, Bhattacharyya K, Bhattarai S, Bhutta ZA, Bijani A, Bikbov B, Bilano V, Biondi A, Birihane BM, Bockarie MJ, Bohlouli S, Bojia HA, Bolla SRR, Boloor A, Brady OJ, Braithwaite D, Briant PS, Briggs AM, Briko NI, Burugina Nagaraja S, Busse R, Butt ZA, Caetano dos Santos FL, Cahuana-Hurtado L, Cámera LA, Cárdenas R, Carreras G, Carrero JJ, Carvalho F, Castaldelli-Maia JM, Castañeda-Orjuela CA, Castelpietra G, Castro F, Catalá-López F, Causey K, Cederroth CR, Cercy KM, Cerin E, Chandan JS, Chang AY, Charan J, Chattu VK, Chaturvedi S, Chin KL, Cho DY, Choi JYJ, Christensen H, Chu DT, Chung MT, Ciobanu LG, Cirillo M, Comfort H, Compton K, Cortesi PA, Costa VM, Cousin E, Dahlawi SMA, Damiani G, Dandona L, Dandona R, Darega Gela J, Darwesh AM, Daryani A, Dash AP, Davey G, Dávila-Cervantes CA, Davletov K, De Neve JW, Denova-Gutiérrez E, Deribe K, Dervenis N, Desai R, Dharmaratne SD, Dhungana GP, Dianatinasab M, Dias da Silva D, Diaz D, Dippenaar IN, Do HT, Dorostkar F, Doshmangir L, Duncan BB, Duraes AR, Eagan AW, Edvardsson D, El Sayed I, El Tantawi M, Elgendy IY, Elyazar IRF, Eskandari K, Eskandarieh S, Esmaeilnejad S, Esteghamati A, Ezekannagha O, Farag T, Farahmand M, Faraon EJA, Farinha CSES, Farioli A, Faris PS, Faro A, Fazlzadeh M, Feigin VL, Fernandes E, Ferrara P, Feyissa GT, Filip I, Fischer F, Fisher JL, Flor LS, Foigt NA, Folayan MO, Fomenkov AA, Foroutan M, Francis JM, Fu W, Fukumoto T, Furtado JM, Gad MM, Gaidhane AM, Gakidou E, Galles NC, Gallus S, Gardner WM, Geberemariyam BS, Gebrehiwot AM, Gebremeskel LG, Gebremeskel GG, Gesesew HA, Ghadiri K, Ghafourifard M, Ghashghaee A, Ghith N, Gholamian A, Gilani SA, Gill PS, Gill TK, Ginindza TG, Gitimoghaddam M, Giussani G, Glagn M, Gnedovskaya EV, Godinho MA, Goharinezhad S, Gopalani SV, Goudarzian AH, Goulart BNG, Gubari MIM, Guimarães RA, Guled RA, Gultie T, Guo Y, Gupta R, Gupta R, Hafezi-Nejad N, Hafiz A, Haile TG, Hamadeh RR, Hameed S, Hamidi S, Han C, Han H, Handiso DW, Hanif A, Hankey GJ, Haro JM, Hasaballah AI, Hasan MM, Hashi A, Hassan S, Hassan A, Hassanipour S, Hassankhani H, Havmoeller RJ, Hay SI, Hayat K, Heidari G, Heidari-Soureshjani R, Hendrie D, Herteliu C, Hird TR, Ho HC, Hole MK, Holla R, Hollingsworth B, Hoogar P, Hopf KP, Horita N, Hossain N, Hosseini M, Hosseinzadeh M, Hostiuc M, Hostiuc S, Househ M, Hsieh VCR, Hu G, Huda TM, Humayun A, Hwang BF, Iavicoli I, Ibitoye SE, Ikeda N, Ilesanmi OS, Ilic IM, Ilic MD, Inbaraj LR, Iqbal U, Irvani SSN, Irvine CMS, Islam MM, Islam SMS, Islami F, Iso H, Iwu CJ, Iwu CCD, Jaafari J, Jadidi-Niaragh F, Jafarinia M, Jahagirdar D, Jahani MA, Jahanmehr N, Jakovljevic M, Janjani H, Javaheri T, Jayatilleke AU, Jenabi E, Jha RP, Jha V, Ji JS, Jia P, John-Akinola YO, Jonas JB, Joukar F, Jozwiak JJ, Jürisson M, Kabir Z, Kalankesh LR, Kalhor R, Kamath AM, Kanchan T, Kapoor N, Karami Matin B, Karanikolos M, Karimi SM, Kassebaum NJ, Katikireddi SV, Kayode GA, Keiyoro PN, Khader YS, Khammarnia M, Khan M, Khan EA, Khang YH, Khatab K, Khater AM, Khater MM, Khatib MN, Khayamzadeh M, Khubchandani J, Kianipour N, Kim YE, Kim YJ, Kimokoti RW, Kinfu Y, Kisa A, Kissimova-Skarbek K, Kivimäki M, Kneib CJ, Kocarnik JM, Kochhar S, Kohler S, Kopec JA, Korotkova AV, Korshunov VA, Kosen S, Kotlo A, Koul PA, Koyanagi A, Krishan K, Krohn KJ, Kugbey N, Kulkarni V, Kumar GA, Kumar N, Kumar M, Kurmi OP, Kusuma D, Kyu HH, La Vecchia C, Lacey B, Lal DK, Lalloo R, Landires I, Lansingh VC, Larsson AO, Lasrado S, Lau KMM, Lauriola P, Lazarus JV, Ledesma JR, Lee PH, Lee SWH, 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Measuring universal health coverage based on an index of effective coverage of health services in 204 countries and territories, 1990-2019: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2019. Lancet 2020; 396:1250-1284. [PMID: 32861314 PMCID: PMC7562819 DOI: 10.1016/s0140-6736(20)30750-9] [Citation(s) in RCA: 251] [Impact Index Per Article: 62.8] [Reference Citation Analysis] [What about the content of this article? (0)] [Abstract] [MESH Headings] [Grants] [Track Full Text] [Figures] [Journal Information] [Submit a Manuscript] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 12/31/2019] [Revised: 03/05/2020] [Accepted: 03/23/2020] [Indexed: 02/07/2023]
Abstract
BACKGROUND Achieving universal health coverage (UHC) involves all people receiving the health services they need, of high quality, without experiencing financial hardship. Making progress towards UHC is a policy priority for both countries and global institutions, as highlighted by the agenda of the UN Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs) and WHO's Thirteenth General Programme of Work (GPW13). Measuring effective coverage at the health-system level is important for understanding whether health services are aligned with countries' health profiles and are of sufficient quality to produce health gains for populations of all ages. METHODS Based on the Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study (GBD) 2019, we assessed UHC effective coverage for 204 countries and territories from 1990 to 2019. Drawing from a measurement framework developed through WHO's GPW13 consultation, we mapped 23 effective coverage indicators to a matrix representing health service types (eg, promotion, prevention, and treatment) and five population-age groups spanning from reproductive and newborn to older adults (≥65 years). Effective coverage indicators were based on intervention coverage or outcome-based measures such as mortality-to-incidence ratios to approximate access to quality care; outcome-based measures were transformed to values on a scale of 0-100 based on the 2·5th and 97·5th percentile of location-year values. We constructed the UHC effective coverage index by weighting each effective coverage indicator relative to its associated potential health gains, as measured by disability-adjusted life-years for each location-year and population-age group. For three tests of validity (content, known-groups, and convergent), UHC effective coverage index performance was generally better than that of other UHC service coverage indices from WHO (ie, the current metric for SDG indicator 3.8.1 on UHC service coverage), the World Bank, and GBD 2017. We quantified frontiers of UHC effective coverage performance on the basis of pooled health spending per capita, representing UHC effective coverage index levels achieved in 2019 relative to country-level government health spending, prepaid private expenditures, and development assistance for health. To assess current trajectories towards the GPW13 UHC billion target-1 billion more people benefiting from UHC by 2023-we estimated additional population equivalents with UHC effective coverage from 2018 to 2023. FINDINGS Globally, performance on the UHC effective coverage index improved from 45·8 (95% uncertainty interval 44·2-47·5) in 1990 to 60·3 (58·7-61·9) in 2019, yet country-level UHC effective coverage in 2019 still spanned from 95 or higher in Japan and Iceland to lower than 25 in Somalia and the Central African Republic. Since 2010, sub-Saharan Africa showed accelerated gains on the UHC effective coverage index (at an average increase of 2·6% [1·9-3·3] per year up to 2019); by contrast, most other GBD super-regions had slowed rates of progress in 2010-2019 relative to 1990-2010. Many countries showed lagging performance on effective coverage indicators for non-communicable diseases relative to those for communicable diseases and maternal and child health, despite non-communicable diseases accounting for a greater proportion of potential health gains in 2019, suggesting that many health systems are not keeping pace with the rising non-communicable disease burden and associated population health needs. In 2019, the UHC effective coverage index was associated with pooled health spending per capita (r=0·79), although countries across the development spectrum had much lower UHC effective coverage than is potentially achievable relative to their health spending. Under maximum efficiency of translating health spending into UHC effective coverage performance, countries would need to reach $1398 pooled health spending per capita (US$ adjusted for purchasing power parity) in order to achieve 80 on the UHC effective coverage index. From 2018 to 2023, an estimated 388·9 million (358·6-421·3) more population equivalents would have UHC effective coverage, falling well short of the GPW13 target of 1 billion more people benefiting from UHC during this time. Current projections point to an estimated 3·1 billion (3·0-3·2) population equivalents still lacking UHC effective coverage in 2023, with nearly a third (968·1 million [903·5-1040·3]) residing in south Asia. INTERPRETATION The present study demonstrates the utility of measuring effective coverage and its role in supporting improved health outcomes for all people-the ultimate goal of UHC and its achievement. Global ambitions to accelerate progress on UHC service coverage are increasingly unlikely unless concerted action on non-communicable diseases occurs and countries can better translate health spending into improved performance. Focusing on effective coverage and accounting for the world's evolving health needs lays the groundwork for better understanding how close-or how far-all populations are in benefiting from UHC. FUNDING Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation.
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Mueller UO, Mukhopadhyay S, Mullany EC, Musa KI, Muthupandian S, Nabhan AF, Naderi M, Nagarajan AJ, Nagel G, Naghavi M, Naghshtabrizi B, Naimzada MD, Najafi F, Nangia V, Nansseu JR, Naserbakht M, Nayak VC, Negoi I, Ngunjiri JW, Nguyen CT, Nguyen HLT, Nguyen M, Nigatu YT, Nikbakhsh R, Nixon MR, Nnaji CA, Nomura S, Norrving B, Noubiap JJ, Nowak C, Nunez-Samudio V, Oţoiu A, Oancea B, Odell CM, Ogbo FA, Oh IH, Okunga EW, Oladnabi M, Olagunju AT, Olusanya BO, Olusanya JO, Omer MO, Ong KL, Onwujekwe OE, Orpana HM, Ortiz A, Osarenotor O, Osei FB, Ostroff SM, Otstavnov N, Otstavnov SS, Øverland S, Owolabi MO, P A M, Padubidri JR, Palladino R, Panda-Jonas S, Pandey A, Parry CDH, Pasovic M, Pasupula DK, Patel SK, Pathak M, Patten SB, Patton GC, Pazoki Toroudi H, Peden AE, Pennini A, Pepito VCF, Peprah EK, Pereira DM, Pesudovs K, Pham HQ, Phillips MR, Piccinelli C, Pilz TM, Piradov MA, Pirsaheb M, Plass D, Polinder S, Polkinghorne KR, Pond CD, Postma MJ, Pourjafar H, Pourmalek F, Poznańska A, 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Sarrafzadegan N, Sartorius B, Sarveazad A, Sathian B, Sathish T, Sattin D, Saxena S, Schaeffer LE, Schiavolin S, Schlaich MP, Schmidt MI, Schutte AE, Schwebel DC, Schwendicke F, Senbeta AM, Senthilkumaran S, Sepanlou SG, Serdar B, Serre ML, Shadid J, Shafaat O, Shahabi S, Shaheen AA, Shaikh MA, Shalash AS, Shams-Beyranvand M, Shamsizadeh M, Sharafi K, Sheikh A, Sheikhtaheri A, Shibuya K, Shield KD, Shigematsu M, Shin JI, Shin MJ, Shiri R, Shirkoohi R, Shuval K, Siabani S, Sierpinski R, Sigfusdottir ID, Sigurvinsdottir R, Silva JP, Simpson KE, Singh JA, Singh P, Skiadaresi E, Skou ST, Skryabin VY, Smith EUR, Soheili A, Soltani S, Soofi M, Sorensen RJD, Soriano JB, Sorrie MB, Soshnikov S, Soyiri IN, Spencer CN, Spotin A, Sreeramareddy CT, Srinivasan V, Stanaway JD, Stein C, Stein DJ, Steiner C, Stockfelt L, Stokes MA, Straif K, Stubbs JL, Sufiyan MB, Suleria HAR, Suliankatchi Abdulkader R, Sulo G, Sultan I, Szumowski Ł, Tabarés-Seisdedos R, Tabb KM, Tabuchi T, Taherkhani A, Tajdini M, Takahashi K, Takala JS, Tamiru AT, Taveira N, Tehrani-Banihashemi A, Temsah MH, Tesema GA, Tessema ZT, Thurston GD, Titova MV, Tohidinik HR, Tonelli M, Topor-Madry R, Topouzis F, Torre AE, Touvier M, Tovani-Palone MRR, Tran BX, Travillian R, Tsatsakis A, Tudor Car L, Tyrovolas S, Uddin R, Umeokonkwo CD, Unnikrishnan B, Upadhyay E, Vacante M, Valdez PR, van Donkelaar A, Vasankari TJ, Vasseghian Y, Veisani Y, Venketasubramanian N, Violante FS, Vlassov V, Vollset SE, Vos T, Vukovic R, Waheed Y, Wallin MT, Wang Y, Wang YP, Watson A, Wei J, Wei MYW, Weintraub RG, Weiss J, Werdecker A, West JJ, Westerman R, Whisnant JL, Whiteford HA, Wiens KE, Wolfe CDA, Wozniak SS, Wu AM, Wu J, Wulf Hanson S, Xu G, Xu R, Yadgir S, Yahyazadeh Jabbari SH, Yamagishi K, Yaminfirooz M, Yano Y, Yaya S, Yazdi-Feyzabadi V, Yeheyis TY, Yilgwan CS, Yilma MT, Yip P, Yonemoto N, Younis MZ, Younker TP, Yousefi B, Yousefi Z, Yousefinezhadi T, Yousuf AY, Yu C, Yusefzadeh H, Zahirian Moghadam T, Zamani M, Zamanian M, Zandian H, Zastrozhin MS, Zhang Y, Zhang ZJ, Zhao JT, Zhao XJG, Zhao Y, Zhou M, Ziapour A, Zimsen SRM, Brauer M, Afshin A, Lim SS. Global burden of 87 risk factors in 204 countries and territories, 1990-2019: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2019. Lancet 2020; 396:1223-1249. [PMID: 33069327 PMCID: PMC7566194 DOI: 10.1016/s0140-6736(20)30752-2] [Citation(s) in RCA: 3234] [Impact Index Per Article: 808.5] [Reference Citation Analysis] [What about the content of this article? (0)] [Abstract] [MESH Headings] [Grants] [Track Full Text] [Figures] [Journal Information] [Submit a Manuscript] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 11/28/2019] [Revised: 03/21/2020] [Accepted: 03/23/2020] [Indexed: 02/07/2023]
Abstract
BACKGROUND Rigorous analysis of levels and trends in exposure to leading risk factors and quantification of their effect on human health are important to identify where public health is making progress and in which cases current efforts are inadequate. The Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study (GBD) 2019 provides a standardised and comprehensive assessment of the magnitude of risk factor exposure, relative risk, and attributable burden of disease. METHODS GBD 2019 estimated attributable mortality, years of life lost (YLLs), years of life lived with disability (YLDs), and disability-adjusted life-years (DALYs) for 87 risk factors and combinations of risk factors, at the global level, regionally, and for 204 countries and territories. GBD uses a hierarchical list of risk factors so that specific risk factors (eg, sodium intake), and related aggregates (eg, diet quality), are both evaluated. This method has six analytical steps. (1) We included 560 risk-outcome pairs that met criteria for convincing or probable evidence on the basis of research studies. 12 risk-outcome pairs included in GBD 2017 no longer met inclusion criteria and 47 risk-outcome pairs for risks already included in GBD 2017 were added based on new evidence. (2) Relative risks were estimated as a function of exposure based on published systematic reviews, 81 systematic reviews done for GBD 2019, and meta-regression. (3) Levels of exposure in each age-sex-location-year included in the study were estimated based on all available data sources using spatiotemporal Gaussian process regression, DisMod-MR 2.1, a Bayesian meta-regression method, or alternative methods. (4) We determined, from published trials or cohort studies, the level of exposure associated with minimum risk, called the theoretical minimum risk exposure level. (5) Attributable deaths, YLLs, YLDs, and DALYs were computed by multiplying population attributable fractions (PAFs) by the relevant outcome quantity for each age-sex-location-year. (6) PAFs and attributable burden for combinations of risk factors were estimated taking into account mediation of different risk factors through other risk factors. Across all six analytical steps, 30 652 distinct data sources were used in the analysis. Uncertainty in each step of the analysis was propagated into the final estimates of attributable burden. Exposure levels for dichotomous, polytomous, and continuous risk factors were summarised with use of the summary exposure value to facilitate comparisons over time, across location, and across risks. Because the entire time series from 1990 to 2019 has been re-estimated with use of consistent data and methods, these results supersede previously published GBD estimates of attributable burden. FINDINGS The largest declines in risk exposure from 2010 to 2019 were among a set of risks that are strongly linked to social and economic development, including household air pollution; unsafe water, sanitation, and handwashing; and child growth failure. Global declines also occurred for tobacco smoking and lead exposure. The largest increases in risk exposure were for ambient particulate matter pollution, drug use, high fasting plasma glucose, and high body-mass index. In 2019, the leading Level 2 risk factor globally for attributable deaths was high systolic blood pressure, which accounted for 10·8 million (95% uncertainty interval [UI] 9·51-12·1) deaths (19·2% [16·9-21·3] of all deaths in 2019), followed by tobacco (smoked, second-hand, and chewing), which accounted for 8·71 million (8·12-9·31) deaths (15·4% [14·6-16·2] of all deaths in 2019). The leading Level 2 risk factor for attributable DALYs globally in 2019 was child and maternal malnutrition, which largely affects health in the youngest age groups and accounted for 295 million (253-350) DALYs (11·6% [10·3-13·1] of all global DALYs that year). The risk factor burden varied considerably in 2019 between age groups and locations. Among children aged 0-9 years, the three leading detailed risk factors for attributable DALYs were all related to malnutrition. Iron deficiency was the leading risk factor for those aged 10-24 years, alcohol use for those aged 25-49 years, and high systolic blood pressure for those aged 50-74 years and 75 years and older. INTERPRETATION Overall, the record for reducing exposure to harmful risks over the past three decades is poor. Success with reducing smoking and lead exposure through regulatory policy might point the way for a stronger role for public policy on other risks in addition to continued efforts to provide information on risk factor harm to the general public. FUNDING Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation.
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Wang H, Abbas KM, Abbasifard M, Abbasi-Kangevari M, Abbastabar H, Abd-Allah F, Abdelalim A, Abolhassani H, Abreu LG, Abrigo MRM, Abushouk AI, Adabi M, Adair T, Adebayo OM, Adedeji IA, Adekanmbi V, Adeoye AM, Adetokunboh OO, Advani SM, Afshin A, Aghaali M, Agrawal A, Ahmadi K, Ahmadieh H, Ahmed MB, Al-Aly Z, Alam K, Alam T, Alanezi FM, Alanzi TM, Alcalde-Rabanal JE, Ali M, Alicandro G, Alijanzadeh M, Alinia C, Alipour V, Alizade H, Aljunid SM, Allebeck P, Almadi MAH, Almasi-Hashiani A, Al-Mekhlafi HM, Altirkawi KA, Alumran AK, Alvis-Guzman N, Amini-Rarani M, Aminorroaya A, Amit AML, Ancuceanu R, Andrei CL, Androudi S, Angus C, Anjomshoa M, Ansari F, Ansari I, Ansari-Moghaddam A, Antonio CAT, Antony CM, Anvari D, Appiah SCY, Arabloo J, Arab-Zozani M, Aravkin AY, Aremu O, Ärnlöv J, Aryal KK, Asadi-Pooya AA, Asgari S, Asghari Jafarabadi M, Atteraya MS, Ausloos M, Avila-Burgos L, Avokpaho EFGA, Ayala Quintanilla BP, Ayano G, Ayanore MA, Azarian G, Babaee E, Badiye AD, Bagli E, Bahrami MA, Bakhtiari A, Balassyano S, Banach M, Banik PC, Barker-Collo SL, Bärnighausen TW, Barzegar A, Basu S, Baune BT, Bayati M, Bazmandegan G, Bedi N, Bell ML, Bennett DA, Bensenor IM, Berhe K, Berman AE, Bertolacci GJ, Bhageerathy R, Bhala N, Bhattacharyya K, Bhutta ZA, Bijani A, Biondi A, Bisanzio D, Bisignano C, Biswas RK, Bjørge T, Bohlouli S, Bohluli M, Bolla SRR, Borzì AM, Borzouei S, Brady OJ, Braithwaite D, Brauer M, Briko AN, Briko NI, Bumgarner BR, Burugina Nagaraja S, Butt ZA, Caetano dos Santos FL, Cai T, Callender CSKH, Cámera LLAA, Campos-Nonato IR, Cárdenas R, Carreras G, Carrero JJ, Carvalho F, Castaldelli-Maia JM, Castelpietra G, Castro F, Catalá-López F, Cederroth CR, Cerin E, Chattu VK, Chin KL, Chu DT, Ciobanu LG, Cirillo M, Comfort H, Costa VM, Cowden RG, Cromwell EA, Croneberger AJ, Cunningham M, Dahlawi SMA, Damiani G, D'Amico E, Dandona L, Dandona R, Dargan PI, Darwesh AM, Daryani A, Das Gupta R, das Neves J, Davletov K, De Leo D, Denova-Gutiérrez E, Deribe K, Dervenis N, Desai R, Dhungana GP, Dias da Silva D, Diaz D, Dippenaar IN, Djalalinia S, Do HT, Dokova K, Doku DT, Dorostkar F, Doshi CP, Doshmangir L, Doyle KE, Dubljanin E, Duraes AR, Edvardsson D, Effiong A, El Sayed I, El Tantawi M, Elbarazi I, El-Jaafary SI, Emamian MH, Eskandarieh S, Esmaeilzadeh F, Estep K, Farahmand M, Faraj A, Fareed M, Faridnia R, Faro A, Farzadfar F, Fattahi N, Fazaeli AA, Fazlzadeh M, Feigin VL, Fereshtehnejad SM, Fernandes E, Ferreira ML, Filip I, Fischer F, Flohr C, Foigt NA, Folayan MO, Fomenkov AA, Freitas M, Fukumoto T, Fuller JE, Furtado JM, Gad MM, Gakidou E, Gallus S, Gebrehiwot AM, Gebremedhin KB, Gething PW, Ghamari F, Ghashghaee A, Gholamian A, Gilani SA, Gitimoghaddam M, Glushkova EV, Gnedovskaya EV, Gopalani SV, Goulart AC, Gugnani HC, Guo Y, Gupta R, Gupta SS, Haagsma JA, Haj-Mirzaian A, Haj-Mirzaian A, Halvaei I, Hamadeh RR, Hamagharib Abdullah K, Han C, Handiso DW, Hankey GJ, Haririan H, Haro JM, Hasaballah AI, Hassanipour S, Hassankhani H, Hay SI, Heibati B, Heidari-Soureshjani R, Henny K, Henry NJ, Herteliu C, Heydarpour F, Hole MK, Hoogar P, Hosgood HD, Hossain N, Hosseinzadeh M, Hostiuc M, Hostiuc S, Househ M, Hoy DG, Hu G, Huda TM, Ibitoye SE, Ikuta KS, Ilesanmi OS, Ilic IM, Ilic MD, Imani-Nasab MH, Islam M, Iso H, Iwu CJ, Jaafari J, Jacobsen KH, Jahagirdar D, Jahanmehr N, Jalali A, Jalilian F, James SL, Janjani H, Jenabi E, Jha RP, Jha V, Ji JS, Jonas JB, Joukar F, Jozwiak JJ, Jürisson M, Kabir Z, Kalani H, Kalankesh LR, Kamiab Z, Kanchan T, Kapoor N, Karch A, Karimi SE, Karimi SA, Kassebaum NJ, Katikireddi SV, Kawakami N, Kayode GA, Keiyoro PN, Keller C, Khader YS, Khalid N, Khan EA, Khan M, Khang YH, Khater AM, Khater MM, Khazaei S, Khazaie H, Khodayari MT, Khubchandani J, Kianipour N, Kim CI, Kim YE, Kim YJ, Kinfu Y, Kisa A, Kisa S, Kissimova-Skarbek K, Kivimäki M, Komaki H, Kopec JA, Kosen S, Koul PA, Koyanagi A, Kravchenko MA, Krishan K, Krohn KJ, Kuate Defo B, Kumar GA, Kumar M, Kumar P, Kumar V, Kusuma D, Kyu HH, La Vecchia C, Lacey B, Lal DK, Lalloo R, Lami FH, Lansky S, Larson SL, Larsson AO, Lasrado S, Lassi ZS, Lazarus JV, Lee PH, Lee SWH, Leever AT, LeGrand KE, Leonardi M, Li S, Lim LL, Lim SS, Linn S, Lodha R, Logroscino G, Lopez AD, Lopukhov PD, Lotufo PA, Lozano R, Lu A, Lunevicius R, Madadin M, Maddison ER, Magdy Abd El Razek H, Magdy Abd El Razek M, Mahasha PW, Mahdavi MM, Malekzadeh R, Mamun AA, Manafi N, Mansour-Ghanaei F, Mansouri B, Mansournia MA, Mapoma CC, Martini S, Martins-Melo FR, Masaka A, Mastrogiacomo CI, Mathur MR, May EA, McAlinden C, McGrath JJ, McKee M, Mehndiratta MM, Mehri F, Mehta KM, Meitei WB, Memiah PTN, Mendoza W, Menezes RG, Mengesha EW, Mensah GA, Meretoja A, Meretoja TJ, Mestrovic T, Michalek IM, Mihretie KM, Miller TR, Mills EJ, Milne GJ, Mirrakhimov EM, Mirzaei H, Mirzaei M, Mirzaei-Alavijeh M, Misganaw AT, Moazen B, Moghadaszadeh M, Mohamadi E, Mohammad DK, Mohammad Y, Mohammad Gholi Mezerji N, Mohammadbeigi A, Mohammadian-Hafshejani A, Mohammadpourhodki R, Mohammed H, Mohammed S, Mohebi F, Mohseni Bandpei MA, Mokari A, Mokdad AH, Momen NC, Monasta L, Mooney MD, Moradi G, Moradi M, Moradi-Joo M, Moradi-Lakeh M, Moradzadeh R, Moraga P, Moreno Velásquez I, Morgado-da-Costa J, Morrison SD, Mosser JF, Mouodi S, Mousavi SM, Mousavi Khaneghah A, Mueller UO, Musa KI, Muthupandian S, Nabavizadeh B, Naderi M, Nagarajan AJ, Naghavi M, Naghshtabrizi B, Naik G, Najafi F, Nangia V, Nansseu JR, Ndwandwe DE, Negoi I, Negoi RI, Ngunjiri JW, Nguyen HLT, Nguyen TH, Nigatu YT, Nikbakhsh R, Nikpoor AR, Nixon MR, Nnaji CA, Nomura S, Noubiap JJ, Nouraei Motlagh S, Nowak C, Oţoiu A, Odell CM, Oh IH, Oladnabi M, Olagunju AT, Olusanya BO, Olusanya JO, Omar Bali A, Ong KL, Onwujekwe OE, Ortiz A, Otstavnov N, Otstavnov SS, Øverland S, Owolabi MO, P A M, Padubidri JR, Pakshir K, Palladino R, Pana A, Panda-Jonas S, Park J, Pasupula DK, Patel JR, Patel SK, Patton GC, Paulson KR, Pazoki Toroudi H, Pease SA, Peden AE, Pepito VCF, Peprah EK, Pereira A, Pereira DM, Perico N, Pigott DM, Pilgrim T, Pilz TM, Piradov MA, Pirsaheb M, Pokhrel KN, Postma MJ, Pourjafar H, Pourmalek F, Pourshams A, Poznańska A, Prada SI, Prakash S, Preotescu L, Quazi Syed Z, Rabiee M, Rabiee N, Radfar A, Rafiei A, Raggi A, Rahman MA, Rajabpour-Sanati A, Ram P, Ranabhat CL, Rao SJ, Rasella D, Rashedi V, Rastogi P, Rathi P, Rawal L, Remuzzi G, Renjith V, Renzaho AMN, Resnikoff S, Rezaei N, Rezai MS, Rezapour A, Rickard J, Roever L, Ronfani L, Roshandel G, Rostamian M, Rubagotti E, Rwegerera GM, Sabour S, Saddik B, Sadeghi E, Sadeghi M, Saeedi Moghaddam S, Safari Y, Safi S, Safiri S, Sagar R, Sahebkar A, Sahraian MA, Sajadi SM, Salahshoor MR, Salama JS, Salamati P, Salem MRR, Salimi Y, Salomon JA, Salz I, Samad Z, Samy AM, Sanabria J, Santric-Milicevic MM, Saraswathy SYI, Sartorius B, Sarveazad A, Sathian B, Sathish T, Sattin D, Saylan M, Schaeffer LE, Schiavolin S, Schwebel DC, Schwendicke F, Sekerija M, Senbeta AM, Senthilkumaran S, Sepanlou SG, Serván-Mori E, Shabani M, Shahabi S, Shahbaz M, Shaheen AA, Shaikh MA, Shalash AS, Shams-Beyranvand M, Shamsi M, Shamsizadeh M, Shannawaz M, Sharafi K, Sharafi Z, Sharara F, Sharma R, Shaw DH, Sheikh A, Shin JI, Shiri R, Shrime MG, Shuval K, Siabani S, Sigfusdottir ID, Sigurvinsdottir R, Silva DAS, Simonetti B, Simpson KE, Singh JA, Skiadaresi E, Skryabin VY, Soheili A, Sokhan A, Sorensen RJD, Soriano JB, Sorrie MB, Soyiri IN, Spurlock EE, Sreeramareddy CT, Stockfelt L, Stokes MA, Stubbs JL, Sudaryanto A, Sufiyan MB, Suliankatchi Abdulkader R, Sykes BL, Tabarés-Seisdedos R, Tabb KM, Tadakamadla SK, Taherkhani A, Tang M, Taveira N, Taylor HJ, Teagle WL, Tehrani-Banihashemi A, Teklehaimanot BF, Tessema ZT, Thankappan KR, Thomas N, Thrift AG, Titova MV, Tohidinik HR, Tonelli M, Topor-Madry R, Topouzis F, Tovani-Palone MRR, Traini E, Tran BX, Travillian R, Trias-Llimós S, Truelsen TC, Tudor Car L, Unnikrishnan B, Upadhyay E, Vacante M, Vakilian A, Valdez PR, Valli A, Vardavas C, Vasankari TJ, Vasconcelos AMN, Vasseghian Y, Veisani Y, Venketasubramanian N, Vidale S, Violante FS, Vlassov V, Vollset SE, Vos T, Vujcic IS, Vukovic A, Vukovic R, Waheed Y, Wallin MT, Walters MK, Wang H, Wang YP, Watson S, Wei J, Weiss J, Weldesamuel GT, Werdecker A, Westerman R, Whiteford HA, Wiangkham T, Wiens KE, Wijeratne T, Wiysonge CS, Wojtyniak B, Wolfe CDA, Wondmieneh AB, Wool EE, Wu AM, Wu J, Xu G, Yamada T, Yamagishi K, Yano Y, Yaya S, Yazdi-Feyzabadi V, Yearwood JA, Yeheyis TY, Yilgwan CS, Yip P, Yonemoto N, Yoon SJ, Yoosefi Lebni J, York HW, Younis MZ, Younker TP, Yousefi Z, Yousefinezhadi T, Yousuf AY, Yusefzadeh H, Zahirian Moghadam T, Zakzuk J, Zaman SB, Zamani M, Zamanian M, Zandian H, Zhang ZJ, Zheng P, Zhou M, Ziapour A, Murray CJL. Global age-sex-specific fertility, mortality, healthy life expectancy (HALE), and population estimates in 204 countries and territories, 1950-2019: a comprehensive demographic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2019. Lancet 2020; 396:1160-1203. [PMID: 33069325 PMCID: PMC7566045 DOI: 10.1016/s0140-6736(20)30977-6] [Citation(s) in RCA: 701] [Impact Index Per Article: 175.3] [Reference Citation Analysis] [What about the content of this article? (0)] [Abstract] [MESH Headings] [Grants] [Track Full Text] [Figures] [Journal Information] [Submit a Manuscript] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 10/05/2019] [Revised: 03/10/2020] [Accepted: 04/20/2020] [Indexed: 02/07/2023]
Abstract
BACKGROUND Accurate and up-to-date assessment of demographic metrics is crucial for understanding a wide range of social, economic, and public health issues that affect populations worldwide. The Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study (GBD) 2019 produced updated and comprehensive demographic assessments of the key indicators of fertility, mortality, migration, and population for 204 countries and territories and selected subnational locations from 1950 to 2019. METHODS 8078 country-years of vital registration and sample registration data, 938 surveys, 349 censuses, and 238 other sources were identified and used to estimate age-specific fertility. Spatiotemporal Gaussian process regression (ST-GPR) was used to generate age-specific fertility rates for 5-year age groups between ages 15 and 49 years. With extensions to age groups 10-14 and 50-54 years, the total fertility rate (TFR) was then aggregated using the estimated age-specific fertility between ages 10 and 54 years. 7417 sources were used for under-5 mortality estimation and 7355 for adult mortality. ST-GPR was used to synthesise data sources after correction for known biases. Adult mortality was measured as the probability of death between ages 15 and 60 years based on vital registration, sample registration, and sibling histories, and was also estimated using ST-GPR. HIV-free life tables were then estimated using estimates of under-5 and adult mortality rates using a relational model life table system created for GBD, which closely tracks observed age-specific mortality rates from complete vital registration when available. Independent estimates of HIV-specific mortality generated by an epidemiological analysis of HIV prevalence surveys and antenatal clinic serosurveillance and other sources were incorporated into the estimates in countries with large epidemics. Annual and single-year age estimates of net migration and population for each country and territory were generated using a Bayesian hierarchical cohort component model that analysed estimated age-specific fertility and mortality rates along with 1250 censuses and 747 population registry years. We classified location-years into seven categories on the basis of the natural rate of increase in population (calculated by subtracting the crude death rate from the crude birth rate) and the net migration rate. We computed healthy life expectancy (HALE) using years lived with disability (YLDs) per capita, life tables, and standard demographic methods. Uncertainty was propagated throughout the demographic estimation process, including fertility, mortality, and population, with 1000 draw-level estimates produced for each metric. FINDINGS The global TFR decreased from 2·72 (95% uncertainty interval [UI] 2·66-2·79) in 2000 to 2·31 (2·17-2·46) in 2019. Global annual livebirths increased from 134·5 million (131·5-137·8) in 2000 to a peak of 139·6 million (133·0-146·9) in 2016. Global livebirths then declined to 135·3 million (127·2-144·1) in 2019. Of the 204 countries and territories included in this study, in 2019, 102 had a TFR lower than 2·1, which is considered a good approximation of replacement-level fertility. All countries in sub-Saharan Africa had TFRs above replacement level in 2019 and accounted for 27·1% (95% UI 26·4-27·8) of global livebirths. Global life expectancy at birth increased from 67·2 years (95% UI 66·8-67·6) in 2000 to 73·5 years (72·8-74·3) in 2019. The total number of deaths increased from 50·7 million (49·5-51·9) in 2000 to 56·5 million (53·7-59·2) in 2019. Under-5 deaths declined from 9·6 million (9·1-10·3) in 2000 to 5·0 million (4·3-6·0) in 2019. Global population increased by 25·7%, from 6·2 billion (6·0-6·3) in 2000 to 7·7 billion (7·5-8·0) in 2019. In 2019, 34 countries had negative natural rates of increase; in 17 of these, the population declined because immigration was not sufficient to counteract the negative rate of decline. Globally, HALE increased from 58·6 years (56·1-60·8) in 2000 to 63·5 years (60·8-66·1) in 2019. HALE increased in 202 of 204 countries and territories between 2000 and 2019. INTERPRETATION Over the past 20 years, fertility rates have been dropping steadily and life expectancy has been increasing, with few exceptions. Much of this change follows historical patterns linking social and economic determinants, such as those captured by the GBD Socio-demographic Index, with demographic outcomes. More recently, several countries have experienced a combination of low fertility and stagnating improvement in mortality rates, pushing more populations into the late stages of the demographic transition. Tracking demographic change and the emergence of new patterns will be essential for global health monitoring. FUNDING Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation.
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Pennoyer J, Bykhovsky M, Sohinki D, Mallard R, Berman AE. Successful Catheter Ablation of Two Macro-reentrant Atrial Tachycardias in a Patient with Congenitally Corrected Transposition of the Great Arteries: A Case Report. J Innov Card Rhythm Manag 2020; 11:4273-4280. [PMID: 33123416 PMCID: PMC7588239 DOI: 10.19102/icrm.2020.111005] [Citation(s) in RCA: 1] [Impact Index Per Article: 0.3] [Reference Citation Analysis] [What about the content of this article? (0)] [Affiliation(s)] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Track Full Text] [Download PDF] [Figures] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 04/24/2020] [Accepted: 05/27/2020] [Indexed: 01/23/2023] Open
Abstract
Adults with congenital heart disease represent a complex and growing patient population. By virtue of their variant anatomy and the complex surgical repair often required in infancy, these patients are at risk of developing unique atrial and ventricular arrhythmias throughout their lifetimes. Electrophysiologists involved in the care of these patients should have a detailed understanding of their underlying anatomy and any prior surgical procedures to guide procedural planning and should have knowledge of the range of possible arrhythmia mechanisms that may differ from patients without structural heart disease. Despite this complexity, standard mapping techniques and electrophysiologic maneuvers may still be used to elucidate arrhythmia mechanisms, map tachycardia circuits, and guide catheter ablation. We report a case of two different macroreentrant right atrial tachycardias that were successfully ablated in a patient with congenitally-corrected transposition of the great arteries.
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Affiliation(s)
- James Pennoyer
- Division of Adult Cardiology, Medical College of Georgia, Augusta, GA, USA
| | - Michael Bykhovsky
- Division of Pediatric Cardiology, Medical College of Georgia, Augusta, GA, USA
| | - Daniel Sohinki
- Division of Adult Cardiology, Medical College of Georgia, Augusta, GA, USA
| | - Rachel Mallard
- Division of Adult Cardiology, Medical College of Georgia, Augusta, GA, USA
| | - Adam E Berman
- Division of Adult Cardiology, Medical College of Georgia, Augusta, GA, USA.,Division of Pediatric Cardiology, Medical College of Georgia, Augusta, GA, USA
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25
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Desai R, Hanna B, Singh S, Gupta S, Deshmukh A, Kumar G, Sachdeva R, Berman AE. Percutaneous Ventricular Assist Device vs. Intra-Aortic Balloon Pump for Hemodynamic Support in Acute Myocardial Infarction-Related Cardiogenic Shock and Coexistent Atrial Fibrillation: A Nationwide Propensity-Matched Analysis'. Am J Med Sci 2020; 361:55-62. [PMID: 33008567 DOI: 10.1016/j.amjms.2020.08.018] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [What about the content of this article? (0)] [Affiliation(s)] [Abstract] [Key Words] [MESH Headings] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 01/13/2020] [Revised: 08/04/2020] [Accepted: 08/10/2020] [Indexed: 11/17/2022]
Abstract
BACKGROUND Patients suffering an acute myocardial infarction complicated by cardiogenic shock (AMICS) may experience clinical deterioration with concomitant atrial fibrillation (AF). Recent data suggest that percutaneous ventricular assist devices (pVADs) provide superior hemodynamic support over intra-aortic balloon pump (IABP) in AMICS. In patients with AF+AMICS, however, outcomes data comparing these two devices remain limited. METHODS Using the National Inpatient Sample datasets (2008-2014) and a propensity-score matched analysis, we compared the outcomes of AMICS+AF hospitalized patients undergoing PCI with pVAD vs. IABP support. RESULTS A total of 12,842 AMICS+AF patients were identified (pVAD=468, IABP=12,374). The matched groups (pVAD=443, IABP=443) were comparable in terms of mean age (70.3 ± 12.0 vs. 70.4 ± 11.0yrs, p = 0.92). The utilization of pVAD was higher in whites but lower in Medicare/Medicaid beneficiaries as compared to IABP. The pVAD group demonstrated higher rates of obesity (13.6% vs. 7.8%, p = 0.006) and dyslipidemia (48.4% vs. 41.8%, p = 0.05). There was no difference in the in-hospital mortality (40.5% vs. 36.8%, p = 0.25); however, pVAD group had a lower incidence of post-procedural MI and higher incidences of stroke (7.8% vs. 4.4%, p = 0.03), hemorrhage (5.6% vs. 2.3%, p = 0.01), discharges to home health care (13.5% vs. 10.1%, p<0.001) and to other facilities (29.1% vs. 24.9%, p<0.001) as compared to IABP group. There was no difference between the groups in terms of mean length of stay or hospital charges. CONCLUSIONS All-cause inpatient mortality was similar in AMICS+AF patients undergoing PCI who were treated with either pVAD or IABP. The pVAD group, however, experienced more complications while consuming greater healthcare resources.
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Affiliation(s)
- Rupak Desai
- Division of Cardiology, Atlanta VA Medical Center, Decatur, GA, United States
| | - Bishoy Hanna
- Division of Cardiology, Morehouse School of Medicine, Atlanta, GA, United States
| | - Sandeep Singh
- Division of Clinical Epidemiology, Biostatistics, and Bioinformatics, Academic Medical Center, University of Amsterdam, Amsterdam, Netherlands
| | - Sonu Gupta
- Division of Cardiology, Morehouse School of Medicine, Atlanta, GA, United States
| | | | - Gautam Kumar
- Division of Cardiology, Atlanta VA Medical Center, Decatur, GA, United States; Division of Cardiology, Emory University School of Medicine, Atlanta, GA, United States
| | - Rajesh Sachdeva
- Division of Cardiology, Atlanta VA Medical Center, Decatur, GA, United States; Division of Cardiology, Morehouse School of Medicine, Atlanta, GA, United States; Division of Cardiology, Emory University School of Medicine, Atlanta, GA, United States; Division of Cardiology, Medical College of Georgia, Augusta University, Augusta, GA, United States
| | - Adam E Berman
- Division of Cardiology, Medical College of Georgia, Augusta University, Augusta, GA, United States; Division of Health Economics and Modeling, Medical College of Georgia, Augusta University, Augusta, GA, United States.
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Berman AE, Miller D, Sorrentino RA, Mossialos EA. Elective cardiovascular care in the era of the COVID-19 pandemic: managing tragic choices. BMJ Open Qual 2020; 9:bmjoq-2020-001069. [PMID: 32988831 PMCID: PMC7523154 DOI: 10.1136/bmjoq-2020-001069] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [What about the content of this article? (0)] [Affiliation(s)] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Track Full Text] [Download PDF] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 06/17/2020] [Revised: 08/31/2020] [Accepted: 09/18/2020] [Indexed: 11/13/2022] Open
Abstract
The COVID-19 pandemic has led to significant morbidity and mortality globally. As health systems grapple with caring for patients affected with COVID-19, cardiovascular procedures that are deemed ‘elective’ have been postponed. Guidelines concerning which cardiac procedures should be performed during the pandemic vary by specialty and geography in the USA. We propose a clinical heuristic to guide individual physicians and governing bodies in their decision making regarding which cardiac procedures should be performed during the COVID-19 pandemic using the behavioural economics concept of heuristics and ecological rationality.
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Affiliation(s)
- Adam E Berman
- Division of Cardiology, Medical College of Georgia, Augusta, Georgia, United States .,Division of Health Economics and Modeling, Medical College of Georgia, Augusta, Georgia, United States
| | - Douglas Miller
- Division of Cardiology, Medical College of Georgia, Augusta, Georgia, United States.,Division of Health Policy, Medical College of Georgia, Augusta, Georgia, United States
| | - Robert A Sorrentino
- Division of Cardiology, Medical College of Georgia, Augusta, Georgia, United States
| | - Elias A Mossialos
- Department of Health Policy, The London School of Economics and Political Science, London, London, UK
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27
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Sohinki D, Berman AE. What Coronavirus Disease 2019 Has Taught Us About Modern Electrophysiology Practice. J Innov Card Rhythm Manag 2020; 11:4187-4190. [PMID: 32874744 PMCID: PMC7452735 DOI: 10.19102/icrm.2020.110801] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [What about the content of this article? (0)] [Affiliation(s)] [Key Words] [Track Full Text] [Download PDF] [Figures] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Indexed: 12/05/2022] Open
Affiliation(s)
- Daniel Sohinki
- Division of Adult Cardiology, Medical College of Georgia, Augusta, GA, USA
| | - Adam E Berman
- Division of Adult Cardiology, Medical College of Georgia, Augusta, GA, USA.,Division of Pediatric Cardiology, Medical College of Georgia, Augusta, GA, USA
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28
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Adepu S, Berman AE, Thompson MA. Socioeconomic determinants of health and county-level variation in cardiovascular disease mortality: An exploratory analysis of Georgia during 2014-2016. Prev Med Rep 2020; 19:101160. [PMID: 32714776 PMCID: PMC7369323 DOI: 10.1016/j.pmedr.2020.101160] [Citation(s) in RCA: 1] [Impact Index Per Article: 0.3] [Reference Citation Analysis] [What about the content of this article? (0)] [Affiliation(s)] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Track Full Text] [Download PDF] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 02/12/2020] [Revised: 07/03/2020] [Accepted: 07/05/2020] [Indexed: 11/26/2022] Open
Abstract
Since cardiovascular disease (CVD) represents the leading cause of death in the state of Georgia, we sought to describe the relationship between socioeconomic determinants of health (SDH) and CVD-related mortality in Georgia using publicly available population health and economic data. A multivariate regression model was estimated to examine physical inactivity, median household income, health insurance status, urban–rural status, and air quality on CVD mortality in Georgia between 2014 and 2016. We find that the median household income and annual average ambient concentrations of PM2.5 were the most significant factors in explaining CVD mortality. Lower levels of median household income and higher concentrations of PM2.5 were associated with higher CVD mortality rates. Leisure-time physical inactivity, health insurance status, and urban–rural status were not associated with worsened CVD-related mortality. As such, policies and interventions aimed at improving socioeconomic status in Georgia should be explored in an effort to positively impact CVD outcomes. Furthermore, this exploratory study could be extended for all counties in the U.S.
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Affiliation(s)
- Sanjana Adepu
- Hull College of Business, Augusta University, 1120 15th Street, Augusta 30912, Georgia
| | - Adam E Berman
- Division of Cardiology, Medical College of Georgia, Augusta University, 1120 15th Street, Augusta 30912, Georgia.,Division of Health Economics and Modeling, Medical College of Georgia, Augusta University, 1120 15 Street, Augusta 30912, Georgia
| | - Mark A Thompson
- Hull College of Business, Augusta University, 1120 15th Street, Augusta 30912, Georgia.,Division of Health Economics and Modeling, Medical College of Georgia, Augusta University, 1120 15 Street, Augusta 30912, Georgia
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29
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Berman AE, Miller DD. Quantifying the Economic Burden of Acute Myocardial Infarction: A Timely and Important Concept. Am J Med Sci 2020; 359:255-256. [PMID: 32359532 DOI: 10.1016/j.amjms.2020.03.003] [Citation(s) in RCA: 1] [Impact Index Per Article: 0.3] [Reference Citation Analysis] [What about the content of this article? (0)] [Affiliation(s)] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 02/26/2020] [Accepted: 03/04/2020] [Indexed: 10/24/2022]
Affiliation(s)
- Adam E Berman
- Departments of Medicine, Pediatrics and Population Health Sciences, Medical College of Georgia, Augusta, GA.
| | - D Douglas Miller
- Departments of Medicine, Radiology and Population Health Sciences, Medical College of Georgia, Augusta, GA
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30
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Yadgir S, Johnson CO, Aboyans V, Adebayo OM, Adedoyin RA, Afarideh M, Alahdab F, Alashi A, Alipour V, Arabloo J, Azari S, Barthelemy CM, Benziger CP, Berman AE, Bijani A, Carrero JJ, Carvalho F, Daryani A, Durães AR, Esteghamati A, Farid TA, Farzadfar F, Fernandes E, Filip I, Gad MM, Hamidi S, Hay SI, Ilesanmi OS, Naghibi Irvani SS, Jürisson M, Kasaeian A, Kengne AP, Khan AR, Kisa A, Kisa S, Kolte D, Manafi N, Manafi A, Mensah GA, Mirrakhimov EM, Mohammad Y, Mokdad AH, Negoi RI, Thi Nguyen HL, Nguyen TH, Nixon MR, Otto CM, Patel S, Pilgrim T, Radfar A, Rawaf DL, Rawaf S, Rawasia WF, Rezapour A, Roever L, Saad AM, Saadatagah S, Senthilkumaran S, Sliwa K, Tesfay BE, Tran BX, Ullah I, Vaduganathan M, Vasankari TJ, Wolfe CDA, Yonemoto N, Roth GA. Global, Regional, and National Burden of Calcific Aortic Valve and Degenerative Mitral Valve Diseases, 1990-2017. Circulation 2020; 141:1670-1680. [PMID: 32223336 DOI: 10.1161/circulationaha.119.043391] [Citation(s) in RCA: 180] [Impact Index Per Article: 45.0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [What about the content of this article? (0)] [Affiliation(s)] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Submit a Manuscript] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Indexed: 01/07/2023]
Abstract
BACKGROUND Nonrheumatic valvular diseases are common; however, no studies have estimated their global or national burden. As part of the Global Burden of Disease Study 2017, mortality, prevalence, and disability-adjusted life-years (DALYs) for calcific aortic valve disease (CAVD), degenerative mitral valve disease, and other nonrheumatic valvular diseases were estimated for 195 countries and territories from 1990 to 2017. METHODS Vital registration data, epidemiologic survey data, and administrative hospital data were used to estimate disease burden using the Global Burden of Disease Study modeling framework, which ensures comparability across locations. Geospatial statistical methods were used to estimate disease for all countries, because data on nonrheumatic valvular diseases are extremely limited for some regions of the world, such as Sub-Saharan Africa and South Asia. Results accounted for estimated level of disease severity as well as the estimated availability of valve repair or replacement procedures. DALYs and other measures of health-related burden were generated for both sexes and each 5-year age group, location, and year from 1990 to 2017. RESULTS Globally, CAVD and degenerative mitral valve disease caused 102 700 (95% uncertainty interval [UI], 82 700-107 900) and 35 700 (95% UI, 30 500-42 500) deaths, and 12.6 million (95% UI, 11.4 million-13.8 million) and 18.1 million (95% UI, 17.6 million-18.6 million) prevalent cases existed in 2017, respectively. A total of 2.5 million (95% UI, 2.3 million-2.8 million) DALYs were estimated as caused by nonrheumatic valvular diseases globally, representing 0.10% (95% UI, 0.09%-0.11%) of total lost health from all diseases in 2017. The number of DALYs increased for CAVD and degenerative mitral valve disease between 1990 and 2017 by 101% (95% UI, 79%-117%) and 35% (95% UI, 23%-47%), respectively. There is significant geographic variation in the prevalence, mortality rate, and overall burden of these diseases, with highest age-standardized DALY rates of CAVD estimated for high-income countries. CONCLUSIONS These global and national estimates demonstrate that CAVD and degenerative mitral valve disease are important causes of disease burden among older adults. Efforts to clarify modifiable risk factors and improve access to valve interventions are necessary if progress is to be made toward reducing, and eventually eliminating, the burden of these highly treatable diseases.
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Affiliation(s)
- Simon Yadgir
- Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation (S.Y., C.O.J., C.M.B., S.I.H., A.H.M., M.R.N., G.A.R.), University of Washington, Seattle
| | - Catherine Owens Johnson
- Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation (S.Y., C.O.J., C.M.B., S.I.H., A.H.M., M.R.N., G.A.R.), University of Washington, Seattle
| | - Victor Aboyans
- Department of Cardiology, Dupuytren University Hospital, Limoges, France (V. Aboyans).,Institute of Epidemiology, University of Limoges, France (V. Aboyans)
| | - Oladimeji M Adebayo
- College of Medicine, University College Hospital, College of Medicine, University College Hospital, Ibadan, Oyo, Nigeria (O.M.A.)
| | - Rufus Adesoji Adedoyin
- Department of Medical Rehabilitation, Obafemi Awolowo University, Ile-Ife, Osun State, Nigeria (R.A.A.)
| | - Mohsen Afarideh
- Endocrinology and Metabolism Research Center (M.A., A.E.), Tehran University of Medical Sciences, Iran
| | - Fares Alahdab
- Evidence Based Practice Center, Mayo Clinic Foundation for Medical Education and Research, Rochester, MN (F.A.)
| | - Alaa Alashi
- Department of Cardiovascular Medicine (A.A., M.M.G.), Cleveland Clinic, OH
| | - Vahid Alipour
- Health Management and Economics Research Center (V. Alipour, J.A., S.A., A. Rezapour), Iran University of Medical Sciences, Tehran.,Health Economics Department (V. Alipour), Iran University of Medical Sciences, Tehran
| | - Jalal Arabloo
- Health Management and Economics Research Center (V. Alipour, J.A., S.A., A. Rezapour), Iran University of Medical Sciences, Tehran
| | - Samad Azari
- Health Management and Economics Research Center (V. Alipour, J.A., S.A., A. Rezapour), Iran University of Medical Sciences, Tehran
| | - Celine M Barthelemy
- Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation (S.Y., C.O.J., C.M.B., S.I.H., A.H.M., M.R.N., G.A.R.), University of Washington, Seattle
| | | | - Adam E Berman
- Department of Medicine, Medical College of Georgia at Augusta University (A.E.B.)
| | - Ali Bijani
- Social Determinants of Health Research Center, Babol University of Medical Sciences, Mazandaran, Iran (A.B.)
| | - Juan J Carrero
- Department of Medical Epidemiology and Biostatistics, Karolinska Institutet, Stockholm, Sweden (J.J.C.)
| | - Félix Carvalho
- Applied Molecular Biosciences Unit (F.C.), University of Porto, Portugal.,Institute of Public Health (F.C.), University of Porto, Portugal
| | | | - Andre R Durães
- Toxoplasmosis Research Center, Mazandaran University of Medical Sciences, Sari, Iran (A.D.).,School of Medicine, Federal University of Bahia, Salvador, Brazil (A.R.D.)
| | - Alireza Esteghamati
- Endocrinology and Metabolism Research Center (M.A., A.E.), Tehran University of Medical Sciences, Iran
| | - Talha A Farid
- Division of Cardiovascular Medicine, University of Louisville, KY (T.A.F., A.R.K.)
| | - Farshad Farzadfar
- Non-communicable Diseases Research Center (F.F.), Tehran University of Medical Sciences, Iran
| | | | - Irina Filip
- Psychiatry Department, Kaiser Permanente, Fontana, CA (I.F.).,Department of Health Sciences, A.T. Still University, Mesa, AZ (I.F.)
| | - Mohamed M Gad
- Department of Cardiovascular Medicine (A.A., M.M.G.), Cleveland Clinic, OH.,Gillings School of Global Public Health, University of North Carolina Chapel Hill (M.M.G.)
| | - Samer Hamidi
- School of Health and Environmental Studies, Hamdan Bin Mohammed Smart University, Dubai, United Arab Emirates (S.H.)
| | - Simon I Hay
- Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation (S.Y., C.O.J., C.M.B., S.I.H., A.H.M., M.R.N., G.A.R.), University of Washington, Seattle.,School of Medicine (S.I.H.), University of Washington, Seattle.,Department of Cardiology, Dupuytren University Hospital, Limoges, France (V. Aboyans)
| | | | - Seyed Sina Naghibi Irvani
- Research Institute for Endocrine Sciences, Shahid Beheshti University of Medical Sciences, Tehran, Iran (S.S.N.I.)
| | - Mikk Jürisson
- Institute of Family Medicine and Public Health, University of Tartu, Tartumaa, Estonia (M.J.)
| | - Amir Kasaeian
- Hematology-Oncology and Stem Cell Transplantation Research Center (A. Kasaeian), Tehran University of Medical Sciences, Iran.,Hematologic Malignancies Research Center (A. Kasaeian), Tehran University of Medical Sciences, Iran
| | - Andre Pascal Kengne
- Non-communicable Diseases Research Unit, Medical Research Council South Africa, Cape Town (A.P.K.).,Department of Medicine, University of Cape Town, South Africa (A.P.K., G.A.M., K.S.)
| | - Abdur Rahman Khan
- Division of Cardiovascular Medicine, University of Louisville, KY (T.A.F., A.R.K.)
| | - Adnan Kisa
- Department of Health Management and Health Economics, Kristiania University College, Oslo, Norway (A. Kisa).,Department of Health Services Policy and Management, University of South Carolina, Columbia (A. Kisa)
| | - Sezer Kisa
- Department of Nursing and Health Promotion, Oslo Metropolitan University, Norway (S.K.)
| | - Dhaval Kolte
- Department of Medicine, Brown University, Providence, RI (D.K.)
| | - Navid Manafi
- Ophthalmology Department (N.M.), Iran University of Medical Sciences, Tehran.,Ophthalmology Department, University of Manitoba, Winnipeg, Canada (N.M.)
| | - Amir Manafi
- Department of Surgery, University of Virginia, Charlottesville (A.M.)
| | - George A Mensah
- Department of Medicine, University of Cape Town, South Africa (A.P.K., G.A.M., K.S.).,Center for Translation Research and Implementation Science, National Institutes of Health, Bethesda, MD (G.A.M.)
| | - Erkin M Mirrakhimov
- Faculty of General Medicine, Kyrgyz State Medical Academy, Bishkek, Kyrgyzstan (E.M.M.).,Department of Atherosclerosis and Coronary Heart Disease, National Center of Cardiology and Internal Disease, Bishkek, Kyrgyzstan (E.M.M.)
| | - Yousef Mohammad
- Internal Medicine Department, King Saud University, Riyadh, Saudi Arabia (Y.M.)
| | - Ali H Mokdad
- Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation (S.Y., C.O.J., C.M.B., S.I.H., A.H.M., M.R.N., G.A.R.), University of Washington, Seattle.,Department of Health Metrics Sciences (A.H.M., G.A.R.), University of Washington, Seattle
| | - Ruxandra Irina Negoi
- Anatomy and Embryology Department, Carol Davila University of Medicine and Pharmacy, Bucharest, Romania (R.I.N.).,Department of Cardiology, Cardio-Aid, Bucharest, Romania (R.I.N.)
| | - Huong Lan Thi Nguyen
- Institute for Global Health Innovations, Duy Tan University, Hanoi, Vietnam (H.L.T.N.)
| | - Trang Huyen Nguyen
- Center of Excellence in Behavioral Health, Nguyen Tat Thanh University, Ho Chi Minh City, Vietnam (T.H.N.)
| | - Molly R Nixon
- Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation (S.Y., C.O.J., C.M.B., S.I.H., A.H.M., M.R.N., G.A.R.), University of Washington, Seattle
| | - Catherine M Otto
- Division of Cardiology (C.M.O., G.A.R.), University of Washington, Seattle
| | - Shanti Patel
- Department of Medicine, Maimonides Medical Center, Brooklyn, NY (S.P.)
| | - Thomas Pilgrim
- Department of Cardiology, University of Bern, Switzerland (T.P.)
| | - Amir Radfar
- College of Graduate Health Sciences, A.T. Still University, Mesa, AZ (A. Radfar).,Medichem, Barcelona, Spain (A. Radfar)
| | - David Laith Rawaf
- WHO Collaborating Centre for Public Health Education and Training (D.L.R.), Imperial College London, United Kingdom.,University College London Hospitals, United Kingdom (D.L.R.)
| | - Salman Rawaf
- Department of Primary Care and Public Health (S.R.), Imperial College London, United Kingdom.,Public Health England, London, United Kingdom (S.R.)
| | | | - Aziz Rezapour
- Health Management and Economics Research Center (V. Alipour, J.A., S.A., A. Rezapour), Iran University of Medical Sciences, Tehran
| | - Leonardo Roever
- Department of Clinical Research, Federal University of Uberl ândia, Brazil (L.R.)
| | - Anas M Saad
- Faculty of Medicine, Ain Shams University, Cairo, Egypt (A.M.S.)
| | | | | | - Karen Sliwa
- Department of Medicine, University of Cape Town, South Africa (A.P.K., G.A.M., K.S.)
| | - Berhe Etsay Tesfay
- Department of Public Health, Adigrat University, Tigray, Ethiopia (B.E.T.)
| | - Bach Xuan Tran
- Department of Health Economics, Hanoi Medical University, Vietnam (B.X.T.)
| | - Irfan Ullah
- Gomal Center of Biochemistry and Biotechnology, Gomal University, Faisalabad, Pakistan (I.U.).,TB Culture Laboratory, Mufti Mehmood Memorial Teaching Hospital, Dera Ismail Khan, Khyber Pakhtunkhwa, Pakistan (I.U.)
| | | | | | - Charles D A Wolfe
- School of Population Health & Environmental Sciences, King's College London, United Kingdom (C.D.A.W.).,Biomedical Research Council, Guy's and St Thomas' NHS Foundation Trust, London, United Kingdom (C.D.A.W.)
| | - Naohiro Yonemoto
- Department of Psychopharmacology, National Center of Neurology and Psychiatry, Tokyo, Japan (N.Y.)
| | - Gregory A Roth
- Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation (S.Y., C.O.J., C.M.B., S.I.H., A.H.M., M.R.N., G.A.R.), University of Washington, Seattle.,Department of Health Metrics Sciences (A.H.M., G.A.R.), University of Washington, Seattle.,Division of Cardiology (C.M.O., G.A.R.), University of Washington, Seattle
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Chang AY, Cowling K, Micah AE, Chapin A, Chen CS, Ikilezi G, Sadat N, Tsakalos G, Wu J, Younker T, Zhao Y, Zlavog BS, Abbafati C, Ahmed AE, Alam K, Alipour V, Aljunid SM, Almalki MJ, Alvis-Guzman N, Ammar W, Andrei CL, Anjomshoa M, Antonio CAT, Arabloo J, Aremu O, Ausloos M, Avila-Burgos L, Awasthi A, Ayanore MA, Azari S, Azzopardi-Muscat N, Bagherzadeh M, Bärnighausen TW, Baune BT, Bayati M, Belay YB, Belay YA, Belete H, Berbada DA, Berman AE, Beuran M, Bijani A, Busse R, Cahuana-Hurtado L, Cámera LA, Catalá-López F, Chauhan BG, Constantin MM, Crowe CS, Cucu A, Dalal K, De Neve JW, Deiparine S, Demeke FM, Do HP, Dubey M, El Tantawi M, Eskandarieh S, Esmaeili R, Fakhar M, Fazaeli AA, Fischer F, Foigt NA, Fukumoto T, Fullman N, Galan A, Gamkrelidze A, Gezae KE, Ghajar A, Ghashghaee A, Goginashvili K, Haakenstad A, Haghparast Bidgoli H, Hamidi S, Harb HL, Hasanpoor E, Hassen HY, Hay SI, Hendrie D, Henok A, Heredia-Pi I, Herteliu C, Hoang CL, Hole MK, Homaie Rad E, Hossain N, Hosseinzadeh M, Hostiuc S, Ilesanmi OS, Irvani SSN, Jakovljevic M, Jalali A, James SL, Jonas JB, Jürisson M, Kadel R, Karami Matin B, Kasaeian A, Kasaye HK, Kassaw MW, Kazemi Karyani A, Khabiri R, Khan J, Khan MN, Khang YH, Kisa A, Kissimova-Skarbek K, Kohler S, Koyanagi A, Krohn KJ, Leung R, Lim LL, Lorkowski S, Majeed A, Malekzadeh R, Mansourian M, Mantovani LG, Massenburg BB, McKee M, Mehta V, Meretoja A, Meretoja TJ, Milevska Kostova N, Miller TR, Mirrakhimov EM, Mohajer B, Mohammad Darwesh A, Mohammed S, Mohebi F, Mokdad AH, Morrison SD, Mousavi SM, Muthupandian S, Nagarajan AJ, Nangia V, Negoi I, Nguyen CT, Nguyen HLT, Nguyen SH, Nosratnejad S, Oladimeji O, Olgiati S, Olusanya JO, Onwujekwe OE, Otstavnov SS, Pana A, Pereira DM, Piroozi B, Prada SI, Qorbani M, Rabiee M, Rabiee N, Rafiei A, Rahim F, Rahimi-Movaghar V, Ram U, Ranabhat CL, Ranta A, Rawaf DL, Rawaf S, Rezaei S, Roro EM, Rostami A, Rubino S, Salahshoor M, Samy AM, Sanabria J, Santos JV, Santric Milicevic MM, Sao Jose BP, Savic M, Schwendicke F, Sepanlou SG, Sepehrimanesh M, Sheikh A, Shrime MG, Sisay S, Soltani S, Soofi M, Soofi M, Srinivasan V, Tabarés-Seisdedos R, Torre A, Tovani-Palone MR, Tran BX, Tran KB, Undurraga EA, Valdez PR, van Boven JFM, Vargas V, Veisani Y, Violante FS, Vladimirov SK, Vlassov V, Vollmer S, Vu GT, Wolfe CDA, Yonemoto N, Younis MZ, Yousefifard M, Zaman SB, Zangeneh A, Zegeye EA, Ziapour A, Chew A, Murray CJL, Dieleman JL. Past, present, and future of global health financing: a review of development assistance, government, out-of-pocket, and other private spending on health for 195 countries, 1995-2050. Lancet 2019; 393:2233-2260. [PMID: 31030984 PMCID: PMC6548764 DOI: 10.1016/s0140-6736(19)30841-4] [Citation(s) in RCA: 213] [Impact Index Per Article: 42.6] [Reference Citation Analysis] [What about the content of this article? (0)] [Abstract] [MESH Headings] [Track Full Text] [Download PDF] [Figures] [Journal Information] [Submit a Manuscript] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 12/22/2018] [Revised: 03/22/2019] [Accepted: 03/27/2019] [Indexed: 12/21/2022]
Abstract
BACKGROUND Comprehensive and comparable estimates of health spending in each country are a key input for health policy and planning, and are necessary to support the achievement of national and international health goals. Previous studies have tracked past and projected future health spending until 2040 and shown that, with economic development, countries tend to spend more on health per capita, with a decreasing share of spending from development assistance and out-of-pocket sources. We aimed to characterise the past, present, and predicted future of global health spending, with an emphasis on equity in spending across countries. METHODS We estimated domestic health spending for 195 countries and territories from 1995 to 2016, split into three categories-government, out-of-pocket, and prepaid private health spending-and estimated development assistance for health (DAH) from 1990 to 2018. We estimated future scenarios of health spending using an ensemble of linear mixed-effects models with time series specifications to project domestic health spending from 2017 through 2050 and DAH from 2019 through 2050. Data were extracted from a broad set of sources tracking health spending and revenue, and were standardised and converted to inflation-adjusted 2018 US dollars. Incomplete or low-quality data were modelled and uncertainty was estimated, leading to a complete data series of total, government, prepaid private, and out-of-pocket health spending, and DAH. Estimates are reported in 2018 US dollars, 2018 purchasing-power parity-adjusted dollars, and as a percentage of gross domestic product. We used demographic decomposition methods to assess a set of factors associated with changes in government health spending between 1995 and 2016 and to examine evidence to support the theory of the health financing transition. We projected two alternative future scenarios based on higher government health spending to assess the potential ability of governments to generate more resources for health. FINDINGS Between 1995 and 2016, health spending grew at a rate of 4·00% (95% uncertainty interval 3·89-4·12) annually, although it grew slower in per capita terms (2·72% [2·61-2·84]) and increased by less than $1 per capita over this period in 22 of 195 countries. The highest annual growth rates in per capita health spending were observed in upper-middle-income countries (5·55% [5·18-5·95]), mainly due to growth in government health spending, and in lower-middle-income countries (3·71% [3·10-4·34]), mainly from DAH. Health spending globally reached $8·0 trillion (7·8-8·1) in 2016 (comprising 8·6% [8·4-8·7] of the global economy and $10·3 trillion [10·1-10·6] in purchasing-power parity-adjusted dollars), with a per capita spending of US$5252 (5184-5319) in high-income countries, $491 (461-524) in upper-middle-income countries, $81 (74-89) in lower-middle-income countries, and $40 (38-43) in low-income countries. In 2016, 0·4% (0·3-0·4) of health spending globally was in low-income countries, despite these countries comprising 10·0% of the global population. In 2018, the largest proportion of DAH targeted HIV/AIDS ($9·5 billion, 24·3% of total DAH), although spending on other infectious diseases (excluding tuberculosis and malaria) grew fastest from 2010 to 2018 (6·27% per year). The leading sources of DAH were the USA and private philanthropy (excluding corporate donations and the Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation). For the first time, we included estimates of China's contribution to DAH ($644·7 million in 2018). Globally, health spending is projected to increase to $15·0 trillion (14·0-16·0) by 2050 (reaching 9·4% [7·6-11·3] of the global economy and $21·3 trillion [19·8-23·1] in purchasing-power parity-adjusted dollars), but at a lower growth rate of 1·84% (1·68-2·02) annually, and with continuing disparities in spending between countries. In 2050, we estimate that 0·6% (0·6-0·7) of health spending will occur in currently low-income countries, despite these countries comprising an estimated 15·7% of the global population by 2050. The ratio between per capita health spending in high-income and low-income countries was 130·2 (122·9-136·9) in 2016 and is projected to remain at similar levels in 2050 (125·9 [113·7-138·1]). The decomposition analysis identified governments' increased prioritisation of the health sector and economic development as the strongest factors associated with increases in government health spending globally. Future government health spending scenarios suggest that, with greater prioritisation of the health sector and increased government spending, health spending per capita could more than double, with greater impacts in countries that currently have the lowest levels of government health spending. INTERPRETATION Financing for global health has increased steadily over the past two decades and is projected to continue increasing in the future, although at a slower pace of growth and with persistent disparities in per-capita health spending between countries. Out-of-pocket spending is projected to remain substantial outside of high-income countries. Many low-income countries are expected to remain dependent on development assistance, although with greater government spending, larger investments in health are feasible. In the absence of sustained new investments in health, increasing efficiency in health spending is essential to meet global health targets. FUNDING Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation.
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Mikhailova MV, Belyaeva NF, Kozlova NI, Zolotarev KV, Mikhailov AN, Berman AE, Archakov AI. [Protective action of fish muscle extracts against cellular senescence induced by oxidative stress]. Biomed Khim 2019; 63:351-355. [PMID: 28862607 DOI: 10.18097/pbmc20176304351] [Citation(s) in RCA: 4] [Impact Index Per Article: 0.8] [Reference Citation Analysis] [What about the content of this article? (0)] [Affiliation(s)] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Track Full Text] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Indexed: 11/23/2022]
Abstract
Muscle extracts of some fish species, i.e. pike (Esox lucius), sterlet (Acipenser ruthenus), pink salmon (Oncorhynchus gorbuscha) and, to a lesser extent, perch (Perca fluviatilis) and Russian sturgeon, (Acipenser gueldenstaedtii) prevent the development of premature senescence of the human embryonic fibroblasts induced by the sublethal concentration of H2O2. Muscle extracts of other fish species tested, i.e. coho salmon (Oncorhynchus kisutch) and zander (Sander lucioperca), have not demonstrated this feature. Cell proliferation increased after the action of the senescence-inhibiting muscle extracts. Possible mechanisms of the action of nature biologically active compounds that interfere with the development of stress-induced cell senescence are discussed.
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Affiliation(s)
| | - N F Belyaeva
- Institute of Biomedical Chemistry, Moscow, Russia
| | - N I Kozlova
- Institute of Biomedical Chemistry, Moscow, Russia
| | | | | | - A E Berman
- Institute of Biomedical Chemistry, Moscow, Russia
| | - A I Archakov
- Institute of Biomedical Chemistry, Moscow, Russia
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Dicker D, Nguyen G, Abate D, Abate KH, Abay SM, Abbafati C, Abbasi N, Abbastabar H, Abd-Allah F, Abdela J, Abdelalim A, Abdel-Rahman O, Abdi A, Abdollahpour I, Abdulkader RS, Abdurahman AA, Abebe HT, Abebe M, Abebe Z, Abebo TA, Aboyans V, Abraha HN, Abrham AR, Abu-Raddad LJ, Abu-Rmeileh NME, Accrombessi MMK, Acharya P, Adebayo OM, Adedeji IA, Adedoyin RA, Adekanmbi V, Adetokunboh OO, Adhena BM, Adhikari TB, Adib MG, Adou AK, Adsuar JC, Afarideh M, Afshin A, Agarwal G, Aggarwal R, Aghayan SA, Agrawal S, Agrawal A, Ahmadi M, Ahmadi A, Ahmadieh H, Ahmed MLCB, Ahmed S, Ahmed MB, Aichour AN, Aichour I, Aichour MTE, Akanda AS, Akbari ME, Akibu M, Akinyemi RO, Akinyemiju T, Akseer N, Alahdab F, Al-Aly Z, Alam K, Alebel A, Aleman AV, Alene KA, Al-Eyadhy A, Ali R, Alijanzadeh M, Alizadeh-Navaei R, Aljunid SM, Alkerwi A, Alla F, Allebeck P, Allen CA, Alonso J, Al-Raddadi RM, Alsharif U, Altirkawi K, Alvis-Guzman N, Amare AT, Amini E, Ammar W, Amoako YA, Anber NH, Andrei CL, Androudi S, Animut MD, Anjomshoa M, Anlay DZ, Ansari H, Ansariadi A, Ansha MG, Antonio CAT, Appiah SCY, Aremu O, Areri HA, Ärnlöv J, Arora M, Artaman A, Aryal KK, Asadi-Lari M, Asayesh H, Asfaw ET, Asgedom SW, Assadi R, Ataro Z, Atey TMM, Athari SS, Atique S, Atre SR, Atteraya MS, Attia EF, Ausloos M, Avila-Burgos L, Avokpaho EFGA, Awasthi A, Awuah B, Ayala Quintanilla BP, Ayele HT, Ayele Y, Ayer R, Ayuk TB, Azzopardi PS, Azzopardi-Muscat N, Badali H, Badawi A, Balakrishnan K, Bali AG, Banach M, Banstola A, Barac A, Barboza MA, Barquera S, Barrero LH, Basaleem H, Bassat Q, Basu A, Basu S, Baune BT, Bazargan-Hejazi S, Bedi N, Beghi E, Behzadifar M, Behzadifar M, Béjot Y, Bekele BB, Belachew AB, Belay AG, Belay E, Belay SA, Belay YA, Bell ML, Bello AK, Bennett DA, Bensenor IM, Berhane A, Berman AE, Bernabe E, Bernstein RS, Bertolacci GJ, Beuran M, Beyranvand T, Bhala N, Bhatia E, Bhatt S, Bhattarai S, Bhaumik S, Bhutta ZA, Biadgo B, Bijani A, Bikbov B, Bililign N, Bin Sayeed MS, Birlik SM, Birungi C, Bisanzio D, Biswas T, Bjørge T, Bleyer A, Basara BB, Bose D, Bosetti C, Boufous S, Bourne R, Brady OJ, Bragazzi NL, Brant LC, Brazinova A, Breitborde NJK, Brenner H, Britton G, Brugha T, Burke KE, Busse R, Butt ZA, Cahuana-Hurtado L, Callender CSKH, Campos-Nonato IR, Campuzano Rincon JC, Cano J, Car M, Cárdenas R, Carreras G, Carrero JJ, Carter A, Carvalho F, Castañeda-Orjuela CA, Castillo Rivas J, Castro F, Catalá-López F, Çavlin A, Cerin E, Chaiah Y, Champs AP, Chang HY, Chang JC, Chattopadhyay A, Chaturvedi P, Chen W, Chiang PPC, Chimed-Ochir O, Chin KL, Chisumpa VH, Chitheer A, Choi JYJ, Christensen H, Christopher DJ, Chung SC, Cicuttini FM, Ciobanu LG, Cirillo M, Claro RM, Cohen AJ, Collado-Mateo D, Constantin MM, Conti S, Cooper C, Cooper LT, Cortesi PA, Cortinovis M, Cousin E, Criqui MH, Cromwell EA, Crowe CS, Crump JA, Cucu A, Cunningham M, Daba AK, Dachew BA, Dadi AF, Dandona L, Dandona R, Dang AK, Dargan PI, Daryani A, Das SK, Das Gupta R, das Neves J, Dasa TT, Dash AP, Weaver ND, Davitoiu DV, Davletov K, Dayama A, Courten BD, De la Hoz FP, De leo D, De Neve JW, Degefa MG, Degenhardt L, Degfie TT, Deiparine S, Dellavalle RP, Demoz GT, Demtsu BB, Denova-Gutiérrez E, Deribe K, Dervenis N, Des Jarlais DC, Dessie GA, Dey S, Dharmaratne SD, Dhimal M, Ding EL, Djalalinia S, Doku DT, Dolan KA, Donnelly CA, Dorsey ER, Douwes-Schultz D, Doyle KE, Drake TM, Driscoll TR, Dubey M, Dubljanin E, Duken EE, Duncan BB, Duraes AR, Ebrahimi H, Ebrahimpour S, Edessa D, Edvardsson D, Eggen AE, El Bcheraoui C, El Sayed Zaki M, Elfaramawi M, El-Khatib Z, Ellingsen CL, Elyazar IRF, Enayati A, Endries AYY, Er B, Ermakov SP, Eshrati B, Eskandarieh S, Esmaeili R, Esteghamati A, Esteghamati S, Fakhar M, Fakhim H, Farag T, Faramarzi M, Fareed M, Farhadi F, Farid TA, Farinha CSES, Farioli A, Faro A, Farvid MS, Farzadfar F, Farzaei MH, Fazeli MS, Feigin VL, Feigl AB, Feizy F, Fentahun N, Fereshtehnejad SM, Fernandes E, Fernandes JC, Feyissa GT, Fijabi DO, Filip I, Finegold S, Fischer F, Flor LS, Foigt NA, Ford JA, Foreman KJ, Fornari C, Frank TD, Franklin RC, Fukumoto T, Fuller JE, Fullman N, Fürst T, Furtado JM, Futran ND, Galan A, Gallus S, Gambashidze K, Gamkrelidze A, Gankpe FG, Garcia-Basteiro AL, Garcia-Gordillo MA, Gebre T, Gebre AK, Gebregergs GB, Gebrehiwot TT, Gebremedhin AT, Gelano TF, Gelaw YA, Geleijnse JM, Genova-Maleras R, Gessner BD, Getachew S, Gething PW, Gezae KE, Ghadami MR, Ghadimi R, Ghasemi Falavarjani K, Ghasemi-Kasman M, Ghiasvand H, Ghimire M, Ghoshal AG, Gill PS, Gill TK, Gillum RF, Giussani G, Goenka S, Goli S, Gomez RS, Gomez-Cabrera MC, Gómez-Dantés H, Gona PN, Goodridge A, Gopalani SV, Goto A, Goulart AC, Goulart BNG, Grada A, Grosso G, Gugnani HC, Guimaraes ALS, Guo Y, Gupta PC, Gupta R, Gupta R, Gupta T, Gyawali B, Haagsma JA, Hachinski V, Hafezi-Nejad N, Hagos TB, Hailegiyorgis TT, Hailu GB, Haj-Mirzaian A, Haj-Mirzaian A, Hamadeh RR, Hamidi S, Handal AJ, Hankey GJ, Harb HL, Harikrishnan S, Haririan H, Haro JM, Hasan M, Hassankhani H, Hassen HY, Havmoeller R, Hay RJ, Hay SI, He Y, Hedayatizadeh-Omran A, Hegazy MI, Heibati B, Heidari M, Hendrie D, Henok A, Henry NJ, Heredia-Pi I, Herteliu C, Heydarpour F, Heydarpour P, Heydarpour S, Hibstu DT, Hoek HW, Hole MK, Homaie Rad E, Hoogar P, Horino M, Hosgood HD, Hosseini SM, Hosseinzadeh M, Hostiuc S, Hostiuc M, Hotez PJ, Hoy DG, Hsairi M, Htet AS, Hu G, Huang JJ, Husseini A, Hussen MM, Hutfless S, Iburg KM, Igumbor EU, Ikeda CT, Ilesanmi OS, Iqbal U, Irvani SSN, Isehunwa OO, Islam SMS, Islami F, Jahangiry L, Jahanmehr N, Jain R, Jain SK, Jakovljevic M, James SL, Javanbakht M, Jayaraman S, Jayatilleke AU, Jee SH, Jeemon P, Jha RP, Jha V, Ji JS, Johnson SC, Jonas JB, Joshi A, Jozwiak JJ, Jungari SB, Jürisson M, K M, Kabir Z, Kadel R, Kahsay A, Kahssay M, Kalani R, Kapil U, Karami M, Karami Matin B, Karch A, Karema C, Karimi N, Karimi SM, Karimi-Sari H, Kasaeian A, Kassa GM, Kassa TD, Kassa ZY, Kassebaum NJ, Katibeh M, Katikireddi SV, Kaul A, Kawakami N, Kazemeini H, Kazemi Z, Karyani AK, K C P, Kebede S, Keiyoro PN, Kemp GR, Kengne AP, Keren A, Kereselidze M, Khader YS, Khafaie MA, Khajavi A, Khalid N, Khalil IA, Khan EA, Khan G, Khan MS, Khan MA, Khang YH, Khanna T, Khater MM, Khatony A, Khazaie H, Khoja AT, Khosravi A, Khosravi MH, Khubchandani J, Kiadaliri AA, Kibret GDD, Kim CI, Kim D, Kim JY, Kim YE, Kimokoti RW, Kinfu Y, Kinra S, Kisa A, Kissimova-Skarbek K, Kissoon N, Kivimäki M, Kleber ME, Knibbs LD, Knudsen AKS, Kochhar S, Kokubo Y, Kolola T, Kopec JA, Kosek MN, Kosen S, Koul PA, Koyanagi A, Kravchenko MA, Krishan K, Krishnaswami S, Kuate Defo B, Kucuk Bicer B, Kudom AA, Kuipers EJ, Kulikoff XR, Kumar GA, Kumar M, Kumar P, Kumsa FA, Kutz MJ, Lad SD, Lafranconi A, Lal DK, Lalloo R, Lam H, Lami FH, Lan Q, Langan SM, Lansingh VC, Lansky S, Larson HJ, Laryea DO, Lassi ZS, Latifi A, Lavados PM, Laxmaiah A, Lazarus JV, Lebedev G, Lee PH, Leigh J, Leshargie CT, Leta S, Levi M, Li S, Li Y, Li X, Liang J, Liang X, Liben ML, Lim LL, Lim SS, Limenih MA, Linn S, Liu S, Liu Y, Lodha R, Logroscino G, Lonsdale C, Lorch SA, Lorkowski S, Lotufo PA, Lozano R, Lucas TCD, Lunevicius R, Lyons RA, Ma S, Mabika C, Macarayan ERK, Mackay MT, Maddison ER, Maddison R, Madotto F, Magdy Abd El Razek H, Magdy Abd El Razek M, Maghavani DP, Majdan M, Majdzadeh R, Majeed A, Malekzadeh R, Malik MA, Malta DC, Mamun AA, Manamo WA, Manda AL, Mansournia MA, Mantovani LG, Mapoma CC, Marami D, Maravilla JC, Marcenes W, Marina S, Martinez-Raga J, Martins SCO, Martins-Melo FR, März W, Marzan MB, Mashamba-Thompson TP, Masiye F, Massenburg BB, Maulik PK, Mazidi M, McGrath JJ, McKee M, Mehata S, Mehendale SM, Mehndiratta MM, Mehrotra R, Mehta KM, Mehta V, Mekonen T, Mekonnen TC, Meles HG, Meles KG, Melese A, Melku M, Memiah PTN, Memish ZA, Mendoza W, Mengistu DT, Mengistu G, Mensah GA, Mereta ST, Meretoja A, Meretoja TJ, Mestrovic T, Mezgebe HB, Miangotar Y, Miazgowski B, Miazgowski T, Miller TR, Mini GK, Mirica A, Mirrakhimov EM, Misganaw AT, Moazen B, Moges NA, Mohammad KA, Mohammadi M, Mohammadifard N, Mohammadi-Khanaposhtani M, Mohammadnia-Afrouzi M, Mohammed S, Mohammed MA, Mohan V, Mokdad AH, Molokhia M, Monasta L, Moradi G, Moradi M, Moradi-Lakeh M, Moradinazar M, Moraga P, Morawska L, Moreno Velásquez I, Morgado-da-Costa J, Morrison SD, Mosapour A, Moschos MM, Mousavi SM, Muche AA, Muchie KF, Mueller UO, Mukhopadhyay S, Mullany EC, Muller K, Murhekar M, Murphy TB, Murthy GVS, Murthy S, Musa J, Musa KI, Mustafa G, Muthupandian S, Nachega JB, Nagel G, Naghavi M, Naheed A, Nahvijou A, Naik G, Nair S, Najafi F, Nangia V, Nansseu JR, Nascimento BR, Nawaz H, Ncama BP, Neamati N, Negoi I, Negoi RI, Neupane S, Newton CRJ, Ngalesoni FN, Ngunjiri JW, Nguyen HT, Nguyen HT, Nguyen LH, Nguyen M, Nguyen TH, Ningrum DNA, Nirayo YL, Nisar MI, Nixon MR, Nolutshungu N, Nomura S, Norheim OF, Noroozi M, Norrving B, Noubiap JJ, Nouri HR, Nourollahpour Shiadeh M, Nowroozi MR, Nsoesie EO, Nyasulu PS, Ofori-Asenso R, Ogah OS, Ogbo FA, Oh IH, Okoro A, Oladimeji O, Olagunju AT, Olagunju TO, Olivares PR, Olusanya BO, Olusanya JO, Ong SK, Opio JN, Oren E, Ortiz JR, Ortiz A, Ota E, Otstavnov SS, Øverland S, Owolabi MO, Oyekale AS, P A M, Pacella R, Pakhale S, Pakhare AP, Pana A, Panda BK, Panda-Jonas S, Pandey AR, Pandian JD, Parisi A, Park EK, Parry CDH, Parsian H, Patel S, Patle A, Patten SB, Patton GC, Paudel D, Pearce N, Peprah EK, Pereira A, Pereira DM, Perez KM, Perico N, Pervaiz A, Pesudovs K, Petri WA, Petzold M, Phillips MR, Pigott DM, Pillay JD, Pirsaheb M, Pishgar F, Plass D, Polinder S, Pond CD, Popova S, Postma MJ, Pourmalek F, Pourshams A, Poustchi H, Prabhakaran D, Prakash V, Prakash S, Prasad N, Qorbani M, Quistberg DA, Radfar A, Rafay A, Rafiei A, Rahim F, Rahimi K, Rahimi-Movaghar A, Rahimi-Movaghar V, Rahman M, Rahman MHU, Rahman MA, Rahman SU, Rai RK, Rajati F, Rajsic S, Raju SB, Ram U, Ranabhat CL, Ranjan P, Ranta A, Rasella D, Rawaf DL, Rawaf S, Ray SE, Razo-García C, Rego MAS, Rehm J, Reiner RC, Reinig N, Reis C, Remuzzi G, Renzaho AMN, Resnikoff S, Rezaei S, Rezaeian S, Rezai MS, Riahi SM, Ribeiro ALP, Riojas H, Rios-Blancas MJ, Roba KT, Robinson SR, Roever L, Ronfani L, Roshandel G, Roshchin DO, Rostami A, Rothenbacher D, Rubagotti E, Ruhago GM, Saadat S, Sabde YD, Sachdev PS, Saddik B, Sadeghi E, Moghaddam SS, Safari H, Safari Y, Safari-Faramani R, Safdarian M, Safi S, Safiri S, Sagar R, Sahebkar A, Sahraian MA, Sajadi HS, Salahshoor MR, Salam N, Salama JS, Salamati P, Saldanha RDF, Salimi Y, Salimzadeh H, Salz I, Sambala EZ, Samy AM, Sanabria J, Sanchez-Niño MD, Santos IS, Santos JV, Santric Milicevic MM, Sao Jose BP, Sardana M, Sarker AR, Sarrafzadegan N, Sartorius B, Sarvi S, Sathian B, Satpathy M, Savic M, Sawant AR, Sawhney M, Saxena S, Sayyah M, Scaria V, Schaeffner E, Schelonka K, Schmidt MI, Schneider IJC, Schöttker B, Schutte AE, Schwebel DC, Schwendicke F, Scott JG, Sekerija M, Sepanlou SG, Serván-Mori E, Shabaninejad H, Shackelford KA, Shafieesabet A, Shaheen AA, Shaikh MA, Shakir RA, Shams-Beyranvand M, Shamsi M, Shamsizadeh M, Sharafi H, Sharafi K, Sharif M, Sharif-Alhoseini M, Sharma M, Sharma J, Sharma R, She J, Sheikh A, Sheth KN, Shi P, Shibuya K, Shifa GT, Shiferaw MS, Shigematsu M, Shiri R, Shirkoohi R, Shiue I, Shokraneh F, Shrime MG, Shukla SR, Si S, Siabani S, Siddiqi TJ, Sigfusdottir ID, Sigurvinsdottir R, Silpakit N, Silva DAS, Silva JP, Silveira DGA, Singam NSV, Singh JA, Singh V, Sinha AP, Sinha DN, Sitas F, Skirbekk V, Sliwa K, Soares Filho AM, Sobaih BH, Sobhani S, Soofi M, Soriano JB, Soyiri IN, Sposato LA, Sreeramareddy CT, Srinivasan V, Srivastava RK, Starodubov VI, Stathopoulou V, Steel N, Stein DJ, Steiner C, Stewart LG, Stokes MA, Sudaryanto A, Sufiyan MB, Sulo G, Sunguya BF, Sur PJ, Sutradhar I, Sykes BL, Sylaja PN, Sylte DO, Szoeke CEI, Tabarés-Seisdedos R, Tabuchi T, Tadakamadla SK, Takahashi K, Tandon N, Tassew AA, Tassew SG, Tavakkoli M, Taveira N, Tawye NY, Tehrani-Banihashemi A, Tekalign TG, Tekle MG, Temesgen H, Temsah MH, Temsah O, Terkawi AS, Teshale MY, Tessema B, Teweldemedhin M, Thakur JS, Thankappan KR, Thirunavukkarasu S, Thomas LA, Thomas N, Thrift AG, Tilahun B, To QG, Tobe-Gai R, Tonelli M, Topor-Madry R, Topouzis F, Torre AE, Tortajada-Girbés M, Tovani-Palone MR, Towbin JA, Tran BX, Tran KB, Tripathi S, Tripathy SP, Truelsen TC, Truong NT, Tsadik AG, Tsilimparis N, Tudor Car L, Tuzcu EM, Tyrovolas S, Ukwaja KN, Ullah I, Usman MS, Uthman OA, Uzun SB, Vaduganathan M, Vaezi A, Vaidya G, Valdez PR, Varavikova E, Varughese S, Vasankari TJ, Vasconcelos AMN, Venketasubramanian N, Vidavalur R, Villafaina S, Violante FS, Vladimirov SK, Vlassov V, Vollset SE, Vos T, Vosoughi K, Vujcic IS, Wagner GR, Wagnew FWS, Waheed Y, Wang Y, Wang YP, Wassie MM, Weiderpass E, Weintraub RG, Weiss DJ, Weiss J, Weldegebreal F, Weldegwergs KG, Werdecker A, Westerman R, Whiteford HA, Widecka J, Widecka K, Wijeratne T, Winkler AS, Wiysonge CS, Wolfe CDA, Wondemagegn SA, Wu S, Wyper GMA, Xu G, Yadav R, Yakob B, Yamada T, Yan LL, Yano Y, Yaseri M, Yasin YJ, Ye P, Yearwood JA, Yentür GK, Yeshaneh A, Yimer EM, Yip P, Yisma E, Yonemoto N, Yoon SJ, York HW, Yotebieng M, Younis MZ, Yousefifard M, Yu C, Zachariah G, Zadnik V, Zafar S, Zaidi Z, Zaman SB, Zamani M, Zare Z, Zeeb H, Zeleke MM, Zenebe ZM, Zerfu TA, Zhang K, Zhang X, Zhou M, Zhu J, Zodpey S, Zucker I, Zuhlke LJJ, Lopez AD, Gakidou E, Murray CJL. Global, regional, and national age-sex-specific mortality and life expectancy, 1950-2017: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2017. Lancet 2018; 392:1684-1735. [PMID: 30496102 PMCID: PMC6227504 DOI: 10.1016/s0140-6736(18)31891-9] [Citation(s) in RCA: 575] [Impact Index Per Article: 95.8] [Reference Citation Analysis] [What about the content of this article? (0)] [Abstract] [MESH Headings] [Grants] [Track Full Text] [Download PDF] [Figures] [Journal Information] [Submit a Manuscript] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 04/09/2018] [Revised: 07/14/2018] [Accepted: 08/08/2018] [Indexed: 02/07/2023]
Abstract
BACKGROUND Assessments of age-specific mortality and life expectancy have been done by the UN Population Division, Department of Economics and Social Affairs (UNPOP), the United States Census Bureau, WHO, and as part of previous iterations of the Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study (GBD). Previous iterations of the GBD used population estimates from UNPOP, which were not derived in a way that was internally consistent with the estimates of the numbers of deaths in the GBD. The present iteration of the GBD, GBD 2017, improves on previous assessments and provides timely estimates of the mortality experience of populations globally. METHODS The GBD uses all available data to produce estimates of mortality rates between 1950 and 2017 for 23 age groups, both sexes, and 918 locations, including 195 countries and territories and subnational locations for 16 countries. Data used include vital registration systems, sample registration systems, household surveys (complete birth histories, summary birth histories, sibling histories), censuses (summary birth histories, household deaths), and Demographic Surveillance Sites. In total, this analysis used 8259 data sources. Estimates of the probability of death between birth and the age of 5 years and between ages 15 and 60 years are generated and then input into a model life table system to produce complete life tables for all locations and years. Fatal discontinuities and mortality due to HIV/AIDS are analysed separately and then incorporated into the estimation. We analyse the relationship between age-specific mortality and development status using the Socio-demographic Index, a composite measure based on fertility under the age of 25 years, education, and income. There are four main methodological improvements in GBD 2017 compared with GBD 2016: 622 additional data sources have been incorporated; new estimates of population, generated by the GBD study, are used; statistical methods used in different components of the analysis have been further standardised and improved; and the analysis has been extended backwards in time by two decades to start in 1950. FINDINGS Globally, 18·7% (95% uncertainty interval 18·4-19·0) of deaths were registered in 1950 and that proportion has been steadily increasing since, with 58·8% (58·2-59·3) of all deaths being registered in 2015. At the global level, between 1950 and 2017, life expectancy increased from 48·1 years (46·5-49·6) to 70·5 years (70·1-70·8) for men and from 52·9 years (51·7-54·0) to 75·6 years (75·3-75·9) for women. Despite this overall progress, there remains substantial variation in life expectancy at birth in 2017, which ranges from 49·1 years (46·5-51·7) for men in the Central African Republic to 87·6 years (86·9-88·1) among women in Singapore. The greatest progress across age groups was for children younger than 5 years; under-5 mortality dropped from 216·0 deaths (196·3-238·1) per 1000 livebirths in 1950 to 38·9 deaths (35·6-42·83) per 1000 livebirths in 2017, with huge reductions across countries. Nevertheless, there were still 5·4 million (5·2-5·6) deaths among children younger than 5 years in the world in 2017. Progress has been less pronounced and more variable for adults, especially for adult males, who had stagnant or increasing mortality rates in several countries. The gap between male and female life expectancy between 1950 and 2017, while relatively stable at the global level, shows distinctive patterns across super-regions and has consistently been the largest in central Europe, eastern Europe, and central Asia, and smallest in south Asia. Performance was also variable across countries and time in observed mortality rates compared with those expected on the basis of development. INTERPRETATION This analysis of age-sex-specific mortality shows that there are remarkably complex patterns in population mortality across countries. The findings of this study highlight global successes, such as the large decline in under-5 mortality, which reflects significant local, national, and global commitment and investment over several decades. However, they also bring attention to mortality patterns that are a cause for concern, particularly among adult men and, to a lesser extent, women, whose mortality rates have stagnated in many countries over the time period of this study, and in some cases are increasing. FUNDING Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation.
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Roth GA, Abate D, Abate KH, Abay SM, Abbafati C, Abbasi N, Abbastabar H, Abd-Allah F, Abdela J, Abdelalim A, Abdollahpour I, Abdulkader RS, Abebe HT, Abebe M, Abebe Z, Abejie AN, Abera SF, Abil OZ, Abraha HN, Abrham AR, Abu-Raddad LJ, Accrombessi MMK, Acharya D, Adamu AA, Adebayo OM, Adedoyin RA, Adekanmbi V, Adetokunboh OO, Adhena BM, Adib MG, Admasie A, Afshin A, Agarwal G, Agesa KM, Agrawal A, Agrawal S, Ahmadi A, Ahmadi M, Ahmed MB, Ahmed S, Aichour AN, Aichour I, Aichour MTE, Akbari ME, Akinyemi RO, Akseer N, Al-Aly Z, Al-Eyadhy A, Al-Raddadi RM, Alahdab F, Alam K, Alam T, Alebel A, Alene KA, Alijanzadeh M, Alizadeh-Navaei R, Aljunid SM, Alkerwi A, Alla F, Allebeck P, Alonso J, Altirkawi K, Alvis-Guzman N, Amare AT, Aminde LN, Amini E, Ammar W, Amoako YA, Anber NH, Andrei CL, Androudi S, Animut MD, Anjomshoa M, Ansari H, Ansha MG, Antonio CAT, Anwari P, Aremu O, Ärnlöv J, Arora A, Arora M, Artaman A, Aryal KK, Asayesh H, Asfaw ET, Ataro Z, Atique S, Atre SR, Ausloos M, Avokpaho EFGA, Awasthi A, Quintanilla BPA, Ayele Y, Ayer R, Azzopardi PS, Babazadeh A, Bacha U, Badali H, Badawi A, Bali AG, Ballesteros KE, Banach M, Banerjee K, Bannick MS, Banoub JAM, Barboza MA, Barker-Collo SL, Bärnighausen TW, Barquera S, Barrero LH, Bassat Q, Basu S, Baune BT, Baynes HW, Bazargan-Hejazi S, Bedi N, Beghi E, Behzadifar M, Behzadifar M, Béjot Y, Bekele BB, Belachew AB, Belay E, Belay YA, Bell ML, Bello AK, Bennett DA, Bensenor IM, Berman AE, Bernabe E, Bernstein RS, Bertolacci GJ, Beuran M, Beyranvand T, Bhalla A, Bhattarai S, Bhaumik S, Bhutta ZA, Biadgo B, Biehl MH, Bijani A, Bikbov B, Bilano V, Bililign N, Bin Sayeed MS, Bisanzio D, Biswas T, Blacker BF, Basara BB, Borschmann R, Bosetti C, Bozorgmehr K, Brady OJ, Brant LC, Brayne C, Brazinova A, Breitborde NJK, Brenner H, Briant PS, Britton G, Brugha T, Busse R, Butt ZA, Callender CSKH, Campos-Nonato IR, Campuzano Rincon JC, Cano J, Car M, Cárdenas R, Carreras G, Carrero JJ, Carter A, Carvalho F, Castañeda-Orjuela CA, Castillo Rivas J, Castle CD, Castro C, Castro F, Catalá-López F, Cerin E, Chaiah Y, Chang JC, Charlson FJ, Chaturvedi P, Chiang PPC, Chimed-Ochir O, Chisumpa VH, Chitheer A, Chowdhury R, Christensen H, Christopher DJ, Chung SC, Cicuttini FM, Ciobanu LG, Cirillo M, Cohen AJ, Cooper LT, Cortesi PA, Cortinovis M, Cousin E, Cowie BC, Criqui MH, Cromwell EA, Crowe CS, Crump JA, Cunningham M, Daba AK, Dadi AF, Dandona L, Dandona R, Dang AK, Dargan PI, Daryani A, Das SK, Gupta RD, Neves JD, Dasa TT, Dash AP, Davis AC, Davis Weaver N, Davitoiu DV, Davletov K, De La Hoz FP, De Neve JW, Degefa MG, Degenhardt L, Degfie TT, Deiparine S, Demoz GT, Demtsu BB, Denova-Gutiérrez E, Deribe K, Dervenis N, Des Jarlais DC, Dessie GA, Dey S, Dharmaratne SD, Dicker D, Dinberu MT, Ding EL, Dirac MA, Djalalinia S, Dokova K, Doku DT, Donnelly CA, Dorsey ER, Doshi PP, Douwes-Schultz D, Doyle KE, Driscoll TR, Dubey M, Dubljanin E, Duken EE, Duncan BB, Duraes AR, Ebrahimi H, Ebrahimpour S, Edessa D, Edvardsson D, Eggen AE, El Bcheraoui C, El Sayed Zaki M, El-Khatib Z, Elkout H, Ellingsen CL, Endres M, Endries AY, Er B, Erskine HE, Eshrati B, Eskandarieh S, Esmaeili R, Esteghamati A, Fakhar M, Fakhim H, Faramarzi M, Fareed M, Farhadi F, Farinha CSES, Faro A, Farvid MS, Farzadfar F, Farzaei MH, Feigin VL, Feigl AB, Fentahun N, Fereshtehnejad SM, Fernandes E, Fernandes JC, Ferrari AJ, Feyissa GT, Filip I, Finegold S, Fischer F, Fitzmaurice C, Foigt NA, Foreman KJ, Fornari C, Frank TD, Fukumoto T, Fuller JE, Fullman N, Fürst T, Furtado JM, Futran ND, Gallus S, Garcia-Basteiro AL, Garcia-Gordillo MA, Gardner WM, Gebre AK, Gebrehiwot TT, Gebremedhin AT, Gebremichael B, Gebremichael TG, Gelano TF, Geleijnse JM, Genova-Maleras R, Geramo YCD, Gething PW, Gezae KE, Ghadami MR, Ghadimi R, Ghasemi Falavarjani K, Ghasemi-Kasman M, Ghimire M, Gibney KB, Gill PS, Gill TK, Gillum RF, Ginawi IA, Giroud M, Giussani G, Goenka S, Goldberg EM, Goli S, Gómez-Dantés H, Gona PN, Gopalani SV, Gorman TM, Goto A, Goulart AC, Gnedovskaya EV, Grada A, Grosso G, Gugnani HC, Guimaraes ALS, Guo Y, Gupta PC, Gupta R, Gupta R, Gupta T, Gutiérrez RA, Gyawali B, Haagsma JA, Hafezi-Nejad N, Hagos TB, Hailegiyorgis TT, Hailu GB, Haj-Mirzaian A, Haj-Mirzaian A, Hamadeh RR, Hamidi S, Handal AJ, Hankey GJ, Harb HL, Harikrishnan S, Haro JM, Hasan M, Hassankhani H, Hassen HY, Havmoeller R, Hay RJ, Hay SI, He Y, Hedayatizadeh-Omran A, Hegazy MI, Heibati B, Heidari M, Hendrie D, Henok A, Henry NJ, Herteliu C, Heydarpour F, Heydarpour P, Heydarpour S, Hibstu DT, Hoek HW, Hole MK, Homaie Rad E, Hoogar P, Hosgood HD, Hosseini SM, Hosseinzadeh M, Hostiuc M, Hostiuc S, Hotez PJ, Hoy DG, Hsiao T, Hu G, Huang JJ, Husseini A, Hussen MM, Hutfless S, Idrisov B, Ilesanmi OS, Iqbal U, Irvani SSN, Irvine CMS, Islam N, Islam SMS, Islami F, Jacobsen KH, Jahangiry L, Jahanmehr N, Jain SK, Jakovljevic M, Jalu MT, James SL, Javanbakht M, Jayatilleke AU, Jeemon P, Jenkins KJ, Jha RP, Jha V, Johnson CO, Johnson SC, Jonas JB, Joshi A, Jozwiak JJ, Jungari SB, Jürisson M, Kabir Z, Kadel R, Kahsay A, Kalani R, Karami M, Karami Matin B, Karch A, Karema C, Karimi-Sari H, Kasaeian A, Kassa DH, Kassa GM, Kassa TD, Kassebaum NJ, Katikireddi SV, Kaul A, Kazemi Z, Karyani AK, Kazi DS, Kefale AT, Keiyoro PN, Kemp GR, Kengne AP, Keren A, Kesavachandran CN, Khader YS, Khafaei B, Khafaie MA, Khajavi A, Khalid N, Khalil IA, Khan EA, Khan MS, Khan MA, Khang YH, Khater MM, Khoja AT, Khosravi A, Khosravi MH, Khubchandani J, Kiadaliri AA, Kibret GD, Kidanemariam ZT, Kiirithio DN, Kim D, Kim YE, Kim YJ, Kimokoti RW, Kinfu Y, Kisa A, Kissimova-Skarbek K, Kivimäki M, Knudsen AKS, Kocarnik JM, Kochhar S, Kokubo Y, Kolola T, Kopec JA, Koul PA, Koyanagi A, Kravchenko MA, Krishan K, Kuate Defo B, Kucuk Bicer B, Kumar GA, Kumar M, Kumar P, Kutz MJ, Kuzin I, Kyu HH, Lad DP, Lad SD, Lafranconi A, Lal DK, Lalloo R, Lallukka T, Lam JO, Lami FH, Lansingh VC, Lansky S, Larson HJ, Latifi A, Lau KMM, Lazarus JV, Lebedev G, Lee PH, Leigh J, Leili M, Leshargie CT, Li S, Li Y, Liang J, Lim LL, Lim SS, Limenih MA, Linn S, Liu S, Liu Y, Lodha R, Lonsdale C, Lopez AD, Lorkowski S, Lotufo PA, Lozano R, Lunevicius R, Ma S, Macarayan ERK, Mackay MT, MacLachlan JH, Maddison ER, Madotto F, Magdy Abd El Razek H, Magdy Abd El Razek M, Maghavani DP, Majdan M, Majdzadeh R, Majeed A, Malekzadeh R, Malta DC, Manda AL, Mandarano-Filho LG, Manguerra H, Mansournia MA, Mapoma CC, Marami D, Maravilla JC, Marcenes W, Marczak L, Marks A, Marks GB, Martinez G, Martins-Melo FR, Martopullo I, März W, Marzan MB, Masci JR, Massenburg BB, Mathur MR, Mathur P, Matzopoulos R, Maulik PK, Mazidi M, McAlinden C, McGrath JJ, McKee M, McMahon BJ, Mehata S, Mehndiratta MM, Mehrotra R, Mehta KM, Mehta V, Mekonnen TC, Melese A, Melku M, Memiah PTN, Memish ZA, Mendoza W, Mengistu DT, Mengistu G, Mensah GA, Mereta ST, Meretoja A, Meretoja TJ, Mestrovic T, Mezgebe HB, Miazgowski B, Miazgowski T, Millear AI, Miller TR, Miller-Petrie MK, Mini GK, Mirabi P, Mirarefin M, Mirica A, Mirrakhimov EM, Misganaw AT, Mitiku H, Moazen B, Mohammad KA, Mohammadi M, Mohammadifard N, Mohammed MA, Mohammed S, Mohan V, Mokdad AH, Molokhia M, Monasta L, Moradi G, Moradi-Lakeh M, Moradinazar M, Moraga P, Morawska L, Moreno Velásquez I, Morgado-Da-Costa J, Morrison SD, Moschos MM, Mouodi S, Mousavi SM, Muchie KF, Mueller UO, Mukhopadhyay S, Muller K, Mumford JE, Musa J, Musa KI, Mustafa G, Muthupandian S, Nachega JB, Nagel G, Naheed A, Nahvijou A, Naik G, Nair S, Najafi F, Naldi L, Nam HS, Nangia V, Nansseu JR, Nascimento BR, Natarajan G, Neamati N, Negoi I, Negoi RI, Neupane S, Newton CRJ, Ngalesoni FN, Ngunjiri JW, Nguyen AQ, Nguyen G, Nguyen HT, Nguyen HT, Nguyen LH, Nguyen M, Nguyen TH, Nichols E, Ningrum DNA, Nirayo YL, Nixon MR, Nolutshungu N, Nomura S, Norheim OF, Noroozi M, Norrving B, Noubiap JJ, Nouri HR, Nourollahpour Shiadeh M, Nowroozi MR, Nyasulu PS, Odell CM, Ofori-Asenso R, Ogbo FA, Oh IH, Oladimeji O, Olagunju AT, Olivares PR, Olsen HE, Olusanya BO, Olusanya JO, Ong KL, Ong SKS, Oren E, Orpana HM, Ortiz A, Ortiz JR, Otstavnov SS, Øverland S, Owolabi MO, Özdemir R, P A M, Pacella R, Pakhale S, Pakhare AP, Pakpour AH, Pana A, Panda-Jonas S, Pandian JD, Parisi A, Park EK, Parry CDH, Parsian H, Patel S, Pati S, Patton GC, Paturi VR, Paulson KR, Pereira A, Pereira DM, Perico N, Pesudovs K, Petzold M, Phillips MR, Piel FB, Pigott DM, Pillay JD, Pirsaheb M, Pishgar F, Polinder S, Postma MJ, Pourshams A, Poustchi H, Pujar A, Prakash S, Prasad N, Purcell CA, Qorbani M, Quintana H, Quistberg DA, Rade KW, Radfar A, Rafay A, Rafiei A, Rahim F, Rahimi K, Rahimi-Movaghar A, Rahman M, Rahman MHU, Rahman MA, Rai RK, Rajsic S, Ram U, Ranabhat CL, Ranjan P, Rao PC, Rawaf DL, Rawaf S, Razo-García C, Reddy KS, Reiner RC, Reitsma MB, Remuzzi G, Renzaho AMN, Resnikoff S, Rezaei S, Rezaeian S, Rezai MS, Riahi SM, Ribeiro ALP, Rios-Blancas MJ, Roba KT, Roberts NLS, Robinson SR, Roever L, Ronfani L, Roshandel G, Rostami A, Rothenbacher D, Roy A, Rubagotti E, Sachdev PS, Saddik B, Sadeghi E, Safari H, Safdarian M, Safi S, Safiri S, Sagar R, Sahebkar A, Sahraian MA, Salam N, Salama JS, Salamati P, Saldanha RDF, Saleem Z, Salimi Y, Salvi SS, Salz I, Sambala EZ, Samy AM, Sanabria J, Sanchez-Niño MD, Santomauro DF, Santos IS, Santos JV, Milicevic MMS, Sao Jose BP, Sarker AR, Sarmiento-Suárez R, Sarrafzadegan N, Sartorius B, Sarvi S, Sathian B, Satpathy M, Sawant AR, Sawhney M, Saxena S, Sayyah M, Schaeffner E, Schmidt MI, Schneider IJC, Schöttker B, Schutte AE, Schwebel DC, Schwendicke F, Scott JG, Sekerija M, Sepanlou SG, Serván-Mori E, Seyedmousavi S, Shabaninejad H, Shackelford KA, Shafieesabet A, Shahbazi M, Shaheen AA, Shaikh MA, Shams-Beyranvand M, Shamsi M, Shamsizadeh M, Sharafi K, Sharif M, Sharif-Alhoseini M, Sharma R, She J, Sheikh A, Shi P, Shiferaw MS, Shigematsu M, Shiri R, Shirkoohi R, Shiue I, Shokraneh F, Shrime MG, Si S, Siabani S, Siddiqi TJ, Sigfusdottir ID, Sigurvinsdottir R, Silberberg DH, Silva DAS, Silva JP, Silva NTD, Silveira DGA, Singh JA, Singh NP, Singh PK, Singh V, Sinha DN, Sliwa K, Smith M, Sobaih BH, Sobhani S, Sobngwi E, Soneji SS, Soofi M, Sorensen RJD, Soriano JB, Soyiri IN, Sposato LA, Sreeramareddy CT, Srinivasan V, Stanaway JD, Starodubov VI, Stathopoulou V, Stein DJ, Steiner C, Stewart LG, Stokes MA, Subart ML, Sudaryanto A, Sufiyan MB, Sur PJ, Sutradhar I, Sykes BL, Sylaja PN, Sylte DO, Szoeke CEI, Tabarés-Seisdedos R, Tabuchi T, Tadakamadla SK, Takahashi K, Tandon N, Tassew SG, Taveira N, Tehrani-Banihashemi A, Tekalign TG, Tekle MG, Temsah MH, Temsah O, Terkawi AS, Teshale MY, Tessema B, Tessema GA, Thankappan KR, Thirunavukkarasu S, Thomas N, Thrift AG, Thurston GD, Tilahun B, To QG, Tobe-Gai R, Tonelli M, Topor-Madry R, Torre AE, Tortajada-Girbés M, Touvier M, Tovani-Palone MR, Tran BX, Tran KB, Tripathi S, Troeger CE, Truelsen TC, Truong NT, Tsadik AG, Tsoi D, Tudor Car L, Tuzcu EM, Tyrovolas S, Ukwaja KN, Ullah I, Undurraga EA, Updike RL, Usman MS, Uthman OA, Uzun SB, Vaduganathan M, Vaezi A, Vaidya G, Valdez PR, Varavikova E, Vasankari TJ, Venketasubramanian N, Villafaina S, Violante FS, Vladimirov SK, Vlassov V, Vollset SE, Vos T, Wagner GR, Wagnew FS, Waheed Y, Wallin MT, Walson JL, Wang Y, Wang YP, Wassie MM, Weiderpass E, Weintraub RG, Weldegebreal F, Weldegwergs KG, Werdecker A, Werkneh AA, West TE, Westerman R, Whiteford HA, Widecka J, Wilner LB, Wilson S, Winkler AS, Wiysonge CS, Wolfe CDA, Wu S, Wu YC, Wyper GMA, Xavier D, Xu G, Yadgir S, Yadollahpour A, Yahyazadeh Jabbari SH, Yakob B, Yan LL, Yano Y, Yaseri M, Yasin YJ, Yentür GK, Yeshaneh A, Yimer EM, Yip P, Yirsaw BD, Yisma E, Yonemoto N, Yonga G, Yoon SJ, Yotebieng M, Younis MZ, Yousefifard M, Yu C, Zadnik V, Zaidi Z, Zaman SB, Zamani M, Zare Z, Zeleke AJ, Zenebe ZM, Zhang AL, Zhang K, Zhou M, Zodpey S, Zuhlke LJ, Naghavi M, Murray CJL. Global, regional, and national age-sex-specific mortality for 282 causes of death in 195 countries and territories, 1980-2017: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2017. Lancet 2018; 392:1736-1788. [PMID: 30496103 PMCID: PMC6227606 DOI: 10.1016/s0140-6736(18)32203-7] [Citation(s) in RCA: 4178] [Impact Index Per Article: 696.3] [Reference Citation Analysis] [What about the content of this article? (0)] [Abstract] [MESH Headings] [Grants] [Track Full Text] [Download PDF] [Figures] [Journal Information] [Submit a Manuscript] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 04/07/2018] [Revised: 08/29/2018] [Accepted: 08/30/2018] [Indexed: 02/07/2023]
Abstract
BACKGROUND Global development goals increasingly rely on country-specific estimates for benchmarking a nation's progress. To meet this need, the Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study (GBD) 2016 estimated global, regional, national, and, for selected locations, subnational cause-specific mortality beginning in the year 1980. Here we report an update to that study, making use of newly available data and improved methods. GBD 2017 provides a comprehensive assessment of cause-specific mortality for 282 causes in 195 countries and territories from 1980 to 2017. METHODS The causes of death database is composed of vital registration (VR), verbal autopsy (VA), registry, survey, police, and surveillance data. GBD 2017 added ten VA studies, 127 country-years of VR data, 502 cancer-registry country-years, and an additional surveillance country-year. Expansions of the GBD cause of death hierarchy resulted in 18 additional causes estimated for GBD 2017. Newly available data led to subnational estimates for five additional countries-Ethiopia, Iran, New Zealand, Norway, and Russia. Deaths assigned International Classification of Diseases (ICD) codes for non-specific, implausible, or intermediate causes of death were reassigned to underlying causes by redistribution algorithms that were incorporated into uncertainty estimation. We used statistical modelling tools developed for GBD, including the Cause of Death Ensemble model (CODEm), to generate cause fractions and cause-specific death rates for each location, year, age, and sex. Instead of using UN estimates as in previous versions, GBD 2017 independently estimated population size and fertility rate for all locations. Years of life lost (YLLs) were then calculated as the sum of each death multiplied by the standard life expectancy at each age. All rates reported here are age-standardised. FINDINGS At the broadest grouping of causes of death (Level 1), non-communicable diseases (NCDs) comprised the greatest fraction of deaths, contributing to 73·4% (95% uncertainty interval [UI] 72·5-74·1) of total deaths in 2017, while communicable, maternal, neonatal, and nutritional (CMNN) causes accounted for 18·6% (17·9-19·6), and injuries 8·0% (7·7-8·2). Total numbers of deaths from NCD causes increased from 2007 to 2017 by 22·7% (21·5-23·9), representing an additional 7·61 million (7·20-8·01) deaths estimated in 2017 versus 2007. The death rate from NCDs decreased globally by 7·9% (7·0-8·8). The number of deaths for CMNN causes decreased by 22·2% (20·0-24·0) and the death rate by 31·8% (30·1-33·3). Total deaths from injuries increased by 2·3% (0·5-4·0) between 2007 and 2017, and the death rate from injuries decreased by 13·7% (12·2-15·1) to 57·9 deaths (55·9-59·2) per 100 000 in 2017. Deaths from substance use disorders also increased, rising from 284 000 deaths (268 000-289 000) globally in 2007 to 352 000 (334 000-363 000) in 2017. Between 2007 and 2017, total deaths from conflict and terrorism increased by 118·0% (88·8-148·6). A greater reduction in total deaths and death rates was observed for some CMNN causes among children younger than 5 years than for older adults, such as a 36·4% (32·2-40·6) reduction in deaths from lower respiratory infections for children younger than 5 years compared with a 33·6% (31·2-36·1) increase in adults older than 70 years. Globally, the number of deaths was greater for men than for women at most ages in 2017, except at ages older than 85 years. Trends in global YLLs reflect an epidemiological transition, with decreases in total YLLs from enteric infections, respiratory infections and tuberculosis, and maternal and neonatal disorders between 1990 and 2017; these were generally greater in magnitude at the lowest levels of the Socio-demographic Index (SDI). At the same time, there were large increases in YLLs from neoplasms and cardiovascular diseases. YLL rates decreased across the five leading Level 2 causes in all SDI quintiles. The leading causes of YLLs in 1990-neonatal disorders, lower respiratory infections, and diarrhoeal diseases-were ranked second, fourth, and fifth, in 2017. Meanwhile, estimated YLLs increased for ischaemic heart disease (ranked first in 2017) and stroke (ranked third), even though YLL rates decreased. Population growth contributed to increased total deaths across the 20 leading Level 2 causes of mortality between 2007 and 2017. Decreases in the cause-specific mortality rate reduced the effect of population growth for all but three causes: substance use disorders, neurological disorders, and skin and subcutaneous diseases. INTERPRETATION Improvements in global health have been unevenly distributed among populations. Deaths due to injuries, substance use disorders, armed conflict and terrorism, neoplasms, and cardiovascular disease are expanding threats to global health. For causes of death such as lower respiratory and enteric infections, more rapid progress occurred for children than for the oldest adults, and there is continuing disparity in mortality rates by sex across age groups. Reductions in the death rate of some common diseases are themselves slowing or have ceased, primarily for NCDs, and the death rate for selected causes has increased in the past decade. FUNDING Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation.
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Roth GA, Abate D, Abate KH, Abay SM, Abbafati C, Abbasi N, Abbastabar H, Abd-Allah F, Abdela J, Abdelalim A, Abdollahpour I, Abdulkader RS, Abebe HT, Abebe M, Abebe Z, Abejie AN, Abera SF, Abil OZ, Abraha HN, Abrham AR, Abu-Raddad LJ, Accrombessi MMK, Acharya D, Adamu AA, Adebayo OM, Adedoyin RA, Adekanmbi V, Adetokunboh OO, Adhena BM, Adib MG, Admasie A, Afshin A, Agarwal G, Agesa KM, Agrawal A, Agrawal S, Ahmadi A, Ahmadi M, Ahmed MB, Ahmed S, Aichour AN, Aichour I, Aichour MTE, Akbari ME, Akinyemi RO, Akseer N, Al-Aly Z, Al-Eyadhy A, Al-Raddadi RM, Alahdab F, Alam K, Alam T, Alebel A, Alene KA, Alijanzadeh M, Alizadeh-Navaei R, Aljunid SM, Alkerwi A, Alla F, Allebeck P, Alonso J, Altirkawi K, Alvis-Guzman N, Amare AT, Aminde LN, Amini E, Ammar W, Amoako YA, Anber NH, Andrei CL, Androudi S, Animut MD, Anjomshoa M, Ansari H, Ansha MG, Antonio CAT, Anwari P, Aremu O, Ärnlöv J, Arora A, Arora M, Artaman A, Aryal KK, Asayesh H, Asfaw ET, Ataro Z, Atique S, Atre SR, Ausloos M, Avokpaho EFGA, Awasthi A, Quintanilla BPA, Ayele Y, Ayer R, Azzopardi PS, Babazadeh A, Bacha U, Badali H, Badawi A, Bali AG, Ballesteros KE, Banach M, Banerjee K, Bannick MS, Banoub JAM, Barboza MA, Barker-Collo SL, Bärnighausen TW, Barquera S, Barrero LH, Bassat Q, Basu S, Baune BT, Baynes HW, Bazargan-Hejazi S, Bedi N, Beghi E, Behzadifar M, Behzadifar M, Béjot Y, Bekele BB, Belachew AB, Belay E, Belay YA, Bell ML, Bello AK, Bennett DA, Bensenor IM, Berman AE, Bernabe E, Bernstein RS, Bertolacci GJ, Beuran M, Beyranvand T, Bhalla A, Bhattarai S, Bhaumik S, Bhutta ZA, Biadgo B, Biehl MH, Bijani A, Bikbov B, Bilano V, Bililign N, Bin Sayeed MS, Bisanzio D, Biswas T, Blacker BF, Basara BB, Borschmann R, Bosetti C, Bozorgmehr K, Brady OJ, Brant LC, Brayne C, Brazinova A, Breitborde NJK, Brenner H, Briant PS, Britton G, Brugha T, Busse R, Butt ZA, Callender CSKH, Campos-Nonato IR, Campuzano Rincon JC, Cano J, Car M, Cárdenas R, Carreras G, Carrero JJ, Carter A, Carvalho F, Castañeda-Orjuela CA, Castillo Rivas J, Castle CD, Castro C, Castro F, Catalá-López F, Cerin E, Chaiah Y, Chang JC, Charlson FJ, Chaturvedi P, Chiang PPC, Chimed-Ochir O, Chisumpa VH, Chitheer A, Chowdhury R, Christensen H, Christopher DJ, Chung SC, Cicuttini FM, Ciobanu LG, Cirillo M, Cohen AJ, Cooper LT, Cortesi PA, Cortinovis M, Cousin E, Cowie BC, Criqui MH, Cromwell EA, Crowe CS, Crump JA, Cunningham M, Daba AK, Dadi AF, Dandona L, Dandona R, Dang AK, Dargan PI, Daryani A, Das SK, Gupta RD, Neves JD, Dasa TT, Dash AP, Davis AC, Davis Weaver N, Davitoiu DV, Davletov K, De La Hoz FP, De Neve JW, Degefa MG, Degenhardt L, Degfie TT, Deiparine S, Demoz GT, Demtsu BB, Denova-Gutiérrez E, Deribe K, Dervenis N, Des Jarlais DC, Dessie GA, Dey S, Dharmaratne SD, Dicker D, Dinberu MT, Ding EL, Dirac MA, Djalalinia S, Dokova K, Doku DT, Donnelly CA, Dorsey ER, Doshi PP, Douwes-Schultz D, Doyle KE, Driscoll TR, Dubey M, Dubljanin E, Duken EE, Duncan BB, Duraes AR, Ebrahimi H, Ebrahimpour S, Edessa D, Edvardsson D, Eggen AE, El Bcheraoui C, El Sayed Zaki M, El-Khatib Z, Elkout H, Ellingsen CL, Endres M, Endries AY, Er B, Erskine HE, Eshrati B, Eskandarieh S, Esmaeili R, Esteghamati A, Fakhar M, Fakhim H, Faramarzi M, Fareed M, Farhadi F, Farinha CSES, Faro A, Farvid MS, Farzadfar F, Farzaei MH, Feigin VL, Feigl AB, Fentahun N, Fereshtehnejad SM, Fernandes E, Fernandes JC, Ferrari AJ, Feyissa GT, Filip I, Finegold S, Fischer F, Fitzmaurice C, Foigt NA, Foreman KJ, Fornari C, Frank TD, Fukumoto T, Fuller JE, Fullman N, Fürst T, Furtado JM, Futran ND, Gallus S, Garcia-Basteiro AL, Garcia-Gordillo MA, Gardner WM, Gebre AK, Gebrehiwot TT, Gebremedhin AT, Gebremichael B, Gebremichael TG, Gelano TF, Geleijnse JM, Genova-Maleras R, Geramo YCD, Gething PW, Gezae KE, Ghadami MR, Ghadimi R, Ghasemi Falavarjani K, Ghasemi-Kasman M, Ghimire M, Gibney KB, Gill PS, Gill TK, Gillum RF, Ginawi IA, Giroud M, Giussani G, Goenka S, Goldberg EM, Goli S, Gómez-Dantés H, Gona PN, Gopalani SV, Gorman TM, Goto A, Goulart AC, Gnedovskaya EV, Grada A, Grosso G, Gugnani HC, Guimaraes ALS, Guo Y, Gupta PC, Gupta R, Gupta R, Gupta T, Gutiérrez RA, Gyawali B, Haagsma JA, Hafezi-Nejad N, Hagos TB, Hailegiyorgis TT, Hailu GB, Haj-Mirzaian A, Haj-Mirzaian A, Hamadeh RR, Hamidi S, Handal AJ, Hankey GJ, Harb HL, Harikrishnan S, Haro JM, Hasan M, Hassankhani H, Hassen HY, Havmoeller R, Hay RJ, Hay SI, He Y, Hedayatizadeh-Omran A, Hegazy MI, Heibati B, Heidari M, Hendrie D, Henok A, Henry NJ, Herteliu C, Heydarpour F, Heydarpour P, Heydarpour S, Hibstu DT, Hoek HW, Hole MK, Homaie Rad E, Hoogar P, Hosgood HD, Hosseini SM, Hosseinzadeh M, Hostiuc M, Hostiuc S, Hotez PJ, Hoy DG, Hsiao T, Hu G, Huang JJ, Husseini A, Hussen MM, Hutfless S, Idrisov B, Ilesanmi OS, Iqbal U, Irvani SSN, Irvine CMS, Islam N, Islam SMS, Islami F, Jacobsen KH, Jahangiry L, Jahanmehr N, Jain SK, Jakovljevic M, Jalu MT, James SL, Javanbakht M, Jayatilleke AU, Jeemon P, Jenkins KJ, Jha RP, Jha V, Johnson CO, Johnson SC, Jonas JB, Joshi A, Jozwiak JJ, Jungari SB, Jürisson M, Kabir Z, Kadel R, Kahsay A, Kalani R, Karami M, Karami Matin B, Karch A, Karema C, Karimi-Sari H, Kasaeian A, Kassa DH, Kassa GM, Kassa TD, Kassebaum NJ, Katikireddi SV, Kaul A, Kazemi Z, Karyani AK, Kazi DS, Kefale AT, Keiyoro PN, Kemp GR, Kengne AP, Keren A, Kesavachandran CN, Khader YS, Khafaei B, Khafaie MA, Khajavi A, Khalid N, Khalil IA, Khan EA, Khan MS, Khan MA, Khang YH, Khater MM, Khoja AT, Khosravi A, Khosravi MH, Khubchandani J, Kiadaliri AA, Kibret GD, Kidanemariam ZT, Kiirithio DN, Kim D, Kim YE, Kim YJ, Kimokoti RW, Kinfu Y, Kisa A, Kissimova-Skarbek K, Kivimäki M, Knudsen AKS, Kocarnik JM, Kochhar S, Kokubo Y, Kolola T, Kopec JA, Koul PA, Koyanagi A, Kravchenko MA, Krishan K, Kuate Defo B, Kucuk Bicer B, Kumar GA, Kumar M, Kumar P, Kutz MJ, Kuzin I, Kyu HH, Lad DP, Lad SD, Lafranconi A, Lal DK, Lalloo R, Lallukka T, Lam JO, Lami FH, Lansingh VC, Lansky S, Larson HJ, Latifi A, Lau KMM, Lazarus JV, Lebedev G, Lee PH, Leigh J, Leili M, Leshargie CT, Li S, Li Y, Liang J, Lim LL, Lim SS, Limenih MA, Linn S, Liu S, Liu Y, Lodha R, Lonsdale C, Lopez AD, Lorkowski S, Lotufo PA, Lozano R, Lunevicius R, Ma S, Macarayan ERK, Mackay MT, MacLachlan JH, Maddison ER, Madotto F, Magdy Abd El Razek H, Magdy Abd El Razek M, Maghavani DP, Majdan M, Majdzadeh R, Majeed A, Malekzadeh R, Malta DC, Manda AL, Mandarano-Filho LG, Manguerra H, Mansournia MA, Mapoma CC, Marami D, Maravilla JC, Marcenes W, Marczak L, Marks A, Marks GB, Martinez G, Martins-Melo FR, Martopullo I, März W, Marzan MB, Masci JR, Massenburg BB, Mathur MR, Mathur P, Matzopoulos R, Maulik PK, Mazidi M, McAlinden C, McGrath JJ, McKee M, McMahon BJ, Mehata S, Mehndiratta MM, Mehrotra R, Mehta KM, Mehta V, Mekonnen TC, Melese A, Melku M, Memiah PTN, Memish ZA, Mendoza W, Mengistu DT, Mengistu G, Mensah GA, Mereta ST, Meretoja A, Meretoja TJ, Mestrovic T, Mezgebe HB, Miazgowski B, Miazgowski T, Millear AI, Miller TR, Miller-Petrie MK, Mini GK, Mirabi P, Mirarefin M, Mirica A, Mirrakhimov EM, Misganaw AT, Mitiku H, Moazen B, Mohammad KA, Mohammadi M, Mohammadifard N, Mohammed MA, Mohammed S, Mohan V, Mokdad AH, Molokhia M, Monasta L, Moradi G, Moradi-Lakeh M, Moradinazar M, Moraga P, Morawska L, Moreno Velásquez I, Morgado-Da-Costa J, Morrison SD, Moschos MM, Mouodi S, Mousavi SM, Muchie KF, Mueller UO, Mukhopadhyay S, Muller K, Mumford JE, Musa J, Musa KI, Mustafa G, Muthupandian S, Nachega JB, Nagel G, Naheed A, Nahvijou A, Naik G, Nair S, Najafi F, Naldi L, Nam HS, Nangia V, Nansseu JR, Nascimento BR, Natarajan G, Neamati N, Negoi I, Negoi RI, Neupane S, Newton CRJ, Ngalesoni FN, Ngunjiri JW, Nguyen AQ, Nguyen G, Nguyen HT, Nguyen HT, Nguyen LH, Nguyen M, Nguyen TH, Nichols E, Ningrum DNA, Nirayo YL, Nixon MR, Nolutshungu N, Nomura S, Norheim OF, Noroozi M, Norrving B, Noubiap JJ, Nouri HR, Nourollahpour Shiadeh M, Nowroozi MR, Nyasulu PS, Odell CM, Ofori-Asenso R, Ogbo FA, Oh IH, Oladimeji O, Olagunju AT, Olivares PR, Olsen HE, Olusanya BO, Olusanya JO, Ong KL, Ong SKS, Oren E, Orpana HM, Ortiz A, Ortiz JR, Otstavnov SS, Øverland S, Owolabi MO, Özdemir R, P A M, Pacella R, Pakhale S, Pakhare AP, Pakpour AH, Pana A, Panda-Jonas S, Pandian JD, Parisi A, Park EK, Parry CDH, Parsian H, Patel S, Pati S, Patton GC, Paturi VR, Paulson KR, Pereira A, Pereira DM, Perico N, Pesudovs K, Petzold M, Phillips MR, Piel FB, Pigott DM, Pillay JD, Pirsaheb M, Pishgar F, Polinder S, Postma MJ, Pourshams A, Poustchi H, Pujar A, Prakash S, Prasad N, Purcell CA, Qorbani M, Quintana H, Quistberg DA, Rade KW, Radfar A, Rafay A, Rafiei A, Rahim F, Rahimi K, Rahimi-Movaghar A, Rahman M, Rahman MHU, Rahman MA, Rai RK, Rajsic S, Ram U, Ranabhat CL, Ranjan P, Rao PC, Rawaf DL, Rawaf S, Razo-García C, Reddy KS, Reiner RC, Reitsma MB, Remuzzi G, Renzaho AMN, Resnikoff S, Rezaei S, Rezaeian S, Rezai MS, Riahi SM, Ribeiro ALP, Rios-Blancas MJ, Roba KT, Roberts NLS, Robinson SR, Roever L, Ronfani L, Roshandel G, Rostami A, Rothenbacher D, Roy A, Rubagotti E, Sachdev PS, Saddik B, Sadeghi E, Safari H, Safdarian M, Safi S, Safiri S, Sagar R, Sahebkar A, Sahraian MA, Salam N, Salama JS, Salamati P, Saldanha RDF, Saleem Z, Salimi Y, Salvi SS, Salz I, Sambala EZ, Samy AM, Sanabria J, Sanchez-Niño MD, Santomauro DF, Santos IS, Santos JV, Milicevic MMS, Sao Jose BP, Sarker AR, Sarmiento-Suárez R, Sarrafzadegan N, Sartorius B, Sarvi S, Sathian B, Satpathy M, Sawant AR, Sawhney M, Saxena S, Sayyah M, Schaeffner E, Schmidt MI, Schneider IJC, Schöttker B, Schutte AE, Schwebel DC, Schwendicke F, Scott JG, Sekerija M, Sepanlou SG, Serván-Mori E, Seyedmousavi S, Shabaninejad H, Shackelford KA, Shafieesabet A, Shahbazi M, Shaheen AA, Shaikh MA, Shams-Beyranvand M, Shamsi M, Shamsizadeh M, Sharafi K, Sharif M, Sharif-Alhoseini M, Sharma R, She J, Sheikh A, Shi P, Shiferaw MS, Shigematsu M, Shiri R, Shirkoohi R, Shiue I, Shokraneh F, Shrime MG, Si S, Siabani S, Siddiqi TJ, Sigfusdottir ID, Sigurvinsdottir R, Silberberg DH, Silva DAS, Silva JP, Silva NTD, Silveira DGA, Singh JA, Singh NP, Singh PK, Singh V, Sinha DN, Sliwa K, Smith M, Sobaih BH, Sobhani S, Sobngwi E, Soneji SS, Soofi M, Sorensen RJD, Soriano JB, Soyiri IN, Sposato LA, Sreeramareddy CT, Srinivasan V, Stanaway JD, Starodubov VI, Stathopoulou V, Stein DJ, Steiner C, Stewart LG, Stokes MA, Subart ML, Sudaryanto A, Sufiyan MB, Sur PJ, Sutradhar I, Sykes BL, Sylaja PN, Sylte DO, Szoeke CEI, Tabarés-Seisdedos R, Tabuchi T, Tadakamadla SK, Takahashi K, Tandon N, Tassew SG, Taveira N, Tehrani-Banihashemi A, Tekalign TG, Tekle MG, Temsah MH, Temsah O, Terkawi AS, Teshale MY, Tessema B, Tessema GA, Thankappan KR, Thirunavukkarasu S, Thomas N, Thrift AG, Thurston GD, Tilahun B, To QG, Tobe-Gai R, Tonelli M, Topor-Madry R, Torre AE, Tortajada-Girbés M, Touvier M, Tovani-Palone MR, Tran BX, Tran KB, Tripathi S, Troeger CE, Truelsen TC, Truong NT, Tsadik AG, Tsoi D, Tudor Car L, Tuzcu EM, Tyrovolas S, Ukwaja KN, Ullah I, Undurraga EA, Updike RL, Usman MS, Uthman OA, Uzun SB, Vaduganathan M, Vaezi A, Vaidya G, Valdez PR, Varavikova E, Vasankari TJ, Venketasubramanian N, Villafaina S, Violante FS, Vladimirov SK, Vlassov V, Vollset SE, Vos T, Wagner GR, Wagnew FS, Waheed Y, Wallin MT, Walson JL, Wang Y, Wang YP, Wassie MM, Weiderpass E, Weintraub RG, Weldegebreal F, Weldegwergs KG, Werdecker A, Werkneh AA, West TE, Westerman R, Whiteford HA, Widecka J, Wilner LB, Wilson S, Winkler AS, Wiysonge CS, Wolfe CDA, Wu S, Wu YC, Wyper GMA, Xavier D, Xu G, Yadgir S, Yadollahpour A, Yahyazadeh Jabbari SH, Yakob B, Yan LL, Yano Y, Yaseri M, Yasin YJ, Yentür GK, Yeshaneh A, Yimer EM, Yip P, Yirsaw BD, Yisma E, Yonemoto N, Yonga G, Yoon SJ, Yotebieng M, Younis MZ, Yousefifard M, Yu C, Zadnik V, Zaidi Z, Zaman SB, Zamani M, Zare Z, Zeleke AJ, Zenebe ZM, Zhang AL, Zhang K, Zhou M, Zodpey S, Zuhlke LJ, Naghavi M, Murray CJL. Global, regional, and national age-sex-specific mortality for 282 causes of death in 195 countries and territories, 1980-2017: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2017. Lancet 2018; 392:1736-1788. [PMID: 30496103 PMCID: PMC6227606 DOI: 10.1016/s0140-6736%2818%2932203-7] [Citation(s) in RCA: 1] [Impact Index Per Article: 0.2] [Reference Citation Analysis] [What about the content of this article? (0)] [Abstract] [MESH Headings] [Grants] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Submit a Manuscript] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 04/07/2018] [Revised: 08/29/2018] [Accepted: 08/30/2018] [Indexed: 01/19/2024]
Abstract
BACKGROUND Global development goals increasingly rely on country-specific estimates for benchmarking a nation's progress. To meet this need, the Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study (GBD) 2016 estimated global, regional, national, and, for selected locations, subnational cause-specific mortality beginning in the year 1980. Here we report an update to that study, making use of newly available data and improved methods. GBD 2017 provides a comprehensive assessment of cause-specific mortality for 282 causes in 195 countries and territories from 1980 to 2017. METHODS The causes of death database is composed of vital registration (VR), verbal autopsy (VA), registry, survey, police, and surveillance data. GBD 2017 added ten VA studies, 127 country-years of VR data, 502 cancer-registry country-years, and an additional surveillance country-year. Expansions of the GBD cause of death hierarchy resulted in 18 additional causes estimated for GBD 2017. Newly available data led to subnational estimates for five additional countries-Ethiopia, Iran, New Zealand, Norway, and Russia. Deaths assigned International Classification of Diseases (ICD) codes for non-specific, implausible, or intermediate causes of death were reassigned to underlying causes by redistribution algorithms that were incorporated into uncertainty estimation. We used statistical modelling tools developed for GBD, including the Cause of Death Ensemble model (CODEm), to generate cause fractions and cause-specific death rates for each location, year, age, and sex. Instead of using UN estimates as in previous versions, GBD 2017 independently estimated population size and fertility rate for all locations. Years of life lost (YLLs) were then calculated as the sum of each death multiplied by the standard life expectancy at each age. All rates reported here are age-standardised. FINDINGS At the broadest grouping of causes of death (Level 1), non-communicable diseases (NCDs) comprised the greatest fraction of deaths, contributing to 73·4% (95% uncertainty interval [UI] 72·5-74·1) of total deaths in 2017, while communicable, maternal, neonatal, and nutritional (CMNN) causes accounted for 18·6% (17·9-19·6), and injuries 8·0% (7·7-8·2). Total numbers of deaths from NCD causes increased from 2007 to 2017 by 22·7% (21·5-23·9), representing an additional 7·61 million (7·20-8·01) deaths estimated in 2017 versus 2007. The death rate from NCDs decreased globally by 7·9% (7·0-8·8). The number of deaths for CMNN causes decreased by 22·2% (20·0-24·0) and the death rate by 31·8% (30·1-33·3). Total deaths from injuries increased by 2·3% (0·5-4·0) between 2007 and 2017, and the death rate from injuries decreased by 13·7% (12·2-15·1) to 57·9 deaths (55·9-59·2) per 100 000 in 2017. Deaths from substance use disorders also increased, rising from 284 000 deaths (268 000-289 000) globally in 2007 to 352 000 (334 000-363 000) in 2017. Between 2007 and 2017, total deaths from conflict and terrorism increased by 118·0% (88·8-148·6). A greater reduction in total deaths and death rates was observed for some CMNN causes among children younger than 5 years than for older adults, such as a 36·4% (32·2-40·6) reduction in deaths from lower respiratory infections for children younger than 5 years compared with a 33·6% (31·2-36·1) increase in adults older than 70 years. Globally, the number of deaths was greater for men than for women at most ages in 2017, except at ages older than 85 years. Trends in global YLLs reflect an epidemiological transition, with decreases in total YLLs from enteric infections, respiratory infections and tuberculosis, and maternal and neonatal disorders between 1990 and 2017; these were generally greater in magnitude at the lowest levels of the Socio-demographic Index (SDI). At the same time, there were large increases in YLLs from neoplasms and cardiovascular diseases. YLL rates decreased across the five leading Level 2 causes in all SDI quintiles. The leading causes of YLLs in 1990-neonatal disorders, lower respiratory infections, and diarrhoeal diseases-were ranked second, fourth, and fifth, in 2017. Meanwhile, estimated YLLs increased for ischaemic heart disease (ranked first in 2017) and stroke (ranked third), even though YLL rates decreased. Population growth contributed to increased total deaths across the 20 leading Level 2 causes of mortality between 2007 and 2017. Decreases in the cause-specific mortality rate reduced the effect of population growth for all but three causes: substance use disorders, neurological disorders, and skin and subcutaneous diseases. INTERPRETATION Improvements in global health have been unevenly distributed among populations. Deaths due to injuries, substance use disorders, armed conflict and terrorism, neoplasms, and cardiovascular disease are expanding threats to global health. For causes of death such as lower respiratory and enteric infections, more rapid progress occurred for children than for the oldest adults, and there is continuing disparity in mortality rates by sex across age groups. Reductions in the death rate of some common diseases are themselves slowing or have ceased, primarily for NCDs, and the death rate for selected causes has increased in the past decade. FUNDING Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation.
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Lozano R, Fullman N, Abate D, Abay SM, Abbafati C, Abbasi N, Abbastabar H, Abd-Allah F, Abdela J, Abdelalim A, Abdel-Rahman O, Abdi A, Abdollahpour I, Abdulkader RS, Abebe ND, Abebe Z, Abejie AN, Abera SF, Abil OZ, Aboyans V, Abraha HN, Abrham AR, Abu-Raddad LJ, Abu-Rmeileh NM, Abyu GY, Accrombessi MMK, Acharya D, Acharya P, Adamu AA, Adebayo OM, Adedeji IA, Adedoyin RA, Adekanmbi V, Adetokunboh OO, Adhena BM, Adhikari TB, Adib MG, Adou AK, Adsuar JC, Afarideh M, Afshari M, Afshin A, Agarwal G, Aghayan SA, Agius D, Agrawal A, Agrawal S, Ahmadi A, Ahmadi M, Ahmadieh H, Ahmed MB, Ahmed S, Akalu TY, Akanda AS, Akbari ME, Akibu M, Akinyemi RO, Akinyemiju T, Akseer N, Alahdab F, Al-Aly Z, Alam K, Alam T, Albujeer A, Alebel A, Alene KA, Al-Eyadhy A, Alhabib S, Ali R, Alijanzadeh M, Alizadeh-Navaei R, Aljunid SM, Alkerwi A, Alla F, Allebeck P, Allen CA, Almasi A, Al-Maskari F, Al-Mekhlafi HM, Alonso J, Al-Raddadi RM, Alsharif U, Altirkawi K, Alvis-Guzman N, Amare AT, Amenu K, Amini E, Ammar 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Laryea DO, Lassi ZS, Latifi A, Lau KMM, Laxmaiah A, Lazarus JV, Leasher JL, Lebedev G, Ledesma JR, Lee JB, Lee PH, Leever AT, Leigh J, Leinsalu M, Leshargie CT, Leung J, Lewycka S, Li S, Li X, Li Y, Liang J, Liang X, Liben ML, Lim LL, Limenih MA, Linn S, Liu S, Liu Y, Lodha R, Logroscino G, Lopez AD, Lorkowski S, Lotufo PA, Lucchesi LR, Lyons RA, Macarayan ERK, Mackay MT, Maddison ER, Madotto F, Maghavani DP, Magis-Rodriguez C, Mahotra NB, Majdan M, Majdzadeh R, Majeed A, Malekzadeh R, Malta DC, Mamun AA, Manda AL, Mandarano-Filho LG, Mangalam S, Manguerra H, Mansournia MA, Mapoma CC, Maravilla JC, Marcenes W, Marks A, Martin RV, Martins SCO, Martins-Melo FR, Martopullo I, Mashamba-Thompson TP, Massenburg BB, Mathur MR, Maulik PK, Mazidi M, McAlinden C, McGrath JJ, McKee M, McMahon BJ, Mehata S, Mehndiratta MM, Mehrotra R, Mehta KM, Mehta V, Mejia-Rodriguez F, Mekonen T, Mekonnen TCC, Meles HG, Melese A, Melku M, Memiah PTN, Memish ZA, Mendoza W, Mengistu DT, Mengistu G, Mensah GA, 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Zucker I, Zuhlke LJJ, Lim SS, Murray CJL. Measuring progress from 1990 to 2017 and projecting attainment to 2030 of the health-related Sustainable Development Goals for 195 countries and territories: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2017. Lancet 2018; 392:2091-2138. [PMID: 30496107 PMCID: PMC6227911 DOI: 10.1016/s0140-6736(18)32281-5] [Citation(s) in RCA: 264] [Impact Index Per Article: 44.0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [What about the content of this article? (0)] [Abstract] [MESH Headings] [Grants] [Track Full Text] [Download PDF] [Figures] [Journal Information] [Submit a Manuscript] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 06/15/2018] [Revised: 09/06/2018] [Accepted: 09/12/2018] [Indexed: 02/07/2023]
Abstract
BACKGROUND Efforts to establish the 2015 baseline and monitor early implementation of the UN Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs) highlight both great potential for and threats to improving health by 2030. To fully deliver on the SDG aim of "leaving no one behind", it is increasingly important to examine the health-related SDGs beyond national-level estimates. As part of the Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study 2017 (GBD 2017), we measured progress on 41 of 52 health-related SDG indicators and estimated the health-related SDG index for 195 countries and territories for the period 1990-2017, projected indicators to 2030, and analysed global attainment. METHODS We measured progress on 41 health-related SDG indicators from 1990 to 2017, an increase of four indicators since GBD 2016 (new indicators were health worker density, sexual violence by non-intimate partners, population census status, and prevalence of physical and sexual violence [reported separately]). We also improved the measurement of several previously reported indicators. We constructed national-level estimates and, for a subset of health-related SDGs, examined indicator-level differences by sex and Socio-demographic Index (SDI) quintile. We also did subnational assessments of performance for selected countries. To construct the health-related SDG index, we transformed the value for each indicator on a scale of 0-100, with 0 as the 2·5th percentile and 100 as the 97·5th percentile of 1000 draws calculated from 1990 to 2030, and took the geometric mean of the scaled indicators by target. To generate projections through 2030, we used a forecasting framework that drew estimates from the broader GBD study and used weighted averages of indicator-specific and country-specific annualised rates of change from 1990 to 2017 to inform future estimates. We assessed attainment of indicators with defined targets in two ways: first, using mean values projected for 2030, and then using the probability of attainment in 2030 calculated from 1000 draws. We also did a global attainment analysis of the feasibility of attaining SDG targets on the basis of past trends. Using 2015 global averages of indicators with defined SDG targets, we calculated the global annualised rates of change required from 2015 to 2030 to meet these targets, and then identified in what percentiles the required global annualised rates of change fell in the distribution of country-level rates of change from 1990 to 2015. We took the mean of these global percentile values across indicators and applied the past rate of change at this mean global percentile to all health-related SDG indicators, irrespective of target definition, to estimate the equivalent 2030 global average value and percentage change from 2015 to 2030 for each indicator. FINDINGS The global median health-related SDG index in 2017 was 59·4 (IQR 35·4-67·3), ranging from a low of 11·6 (95% uncertainty interval 9·6-14·0) to a high of 84·9 (83·1-86·7). SDG index values in countries assessed at the subnational level varied substantially, particularly in China and India, although scores in Japan and the UK were more homogeneous. Indicators also varied by SDI quintile and sex, with males having worse outcomes than females for non-communicable disease (NCD) mortality, alcohol use, and smoking, among others. Most countries were projected to have a higher health-related SDG index in 2030 than in 2017, while country-level probabilities of attainment by 2030 varied widely by indicator. Under-5 mortality, neonatal mortality, maternal mortality ratio, and malaria indicators had the most countries with at least 95% probability of target attainment. Other indicators, including NCD mortality and suicide mortality, had no countries projected to meet corresponding SDG targets on the basis of projected mean values for 2030 but showed some probability of attainment by 2030. For some indicators, including child malnutrition, several infectious diseases, and most violence measures, the annualised rates of change required to meet SDG targets far exceeded the pace of progress achieved by any country in the recent past. We found that applying the mean global annualised rate of change to indicators without defined targets would equate to about 19% and 22% reductions in global smoking and alcohol consumption, respectively; a 47% decline in adolescent birth rates; and a more than 85% increase in health worker density per 1000 population by 2030. INTERPRETATION The GBD study offers a unique, robust platform for monitoring the health-related SDGs across demographic and geographic dimensions. Our findings underscore the importance of increased collection and analysis of disaggregated data and highlight where more deliberate design or targeting of interventions could accelerate progress in attaining the SDGs. Current projections show that many health-related SDG indicators, NCDs, NCD-related risks, and violence-related indicators will require a concerted shift away from what might have driven past gains-curative interventions in the case of NCDs-towards multisectoral, prevention-oriented policy action and investments to achieve SDG aims. Notably, several targets, if they are to be met by 2030, demand a pace of progress that no country has achieved in the recent past. The future is fundamentally uncertain, and no model can fully predict what breakthroughs or events might alter the course of the SDGs. What is clear is that our actions-or inaction-today will ultimately dictate how close the world, collectively, can get to leaving no one behind by 2030. FUNDING Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation.
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Murray CJL, Callender CSKH, Kulikoff XR, Srinivasan V, Abate D, Abate KH, Abay SM, Abbasi N, Abbastabar H, Abdela J, Abdelalim A, Abdel-Rahman O, Abdi A, Abdoli N, Abdollahpour I, Abdulkader RS, Abebe HT, Abebe M, Abebe Z, Abebo TA, Abejie AN, Aboyans V, Abraha HN, Abreu DMX, Abrham AR, Abu-Raddad LJ, Abu-Rmeileh NME, Accrombessi MMK, Acharya P, Adamu AA, Adebayo OM, Adedeji IA, Adekanmbi V, Adetokunboh OO, Adhena BM, Adhikari TB, Adib MG, Adou AK, Adsuar JC, Afarideh M, Afshin A, Agarwal G, Agesa KM, Aghayan SA, Agrawal S, Ahmadi A, Ahmadi M, Ahmed MB, Ahmed S, Aichour AN, Aichour I, Aichour MTE, Akanda AS, Akbari ME, Akibu M, Akinyemi RO, Akinyemiju T, Akseer N, Alahdab F, Al-Aly Z, Alam K, Alebel A, Aleman AV, Alene KA, Al-Eyadhy A, Ali R, Alijanzadeh M, Alizadeh-Navaei R, Aljunid SM, Alkerwi A, Alla F, Allebeck P, Almasi A, Alonso J, Al-Raddadi RM, Alsharif U, Altirkawi K, Alvis-Guzman N, Amare AT, Ammar W, Anber NH, Andrei CL, Androudi S, Animut MD, Ansari H, Ansha MG, Antonio CAT, Appiah SCY, Aremu O, Areri HA, Arian N, Ärnlöv J, Artaman A, Aryal KK, Asayesh H, Asfaw ET, Asgedom SW, Assadi R, Atey TMM, Atique S, Atteraya MS, Ausloos M, Avokpaho EFGA, Awasthi A, Ayala Quintanilla BP, Ayele Y, Ayer R, Ayuk TB, Azzopardi PS, Babalola TK, Babazadeh A, Badali H, Badawi A, Bali AG, Banach M, Barker-Collo SL, Bärnighausen TW, Barrero LH, Basaleem H, Bassat Q, Basu A, Baune BT, Baynes HW, Beghi E, Behzadifar M, Behzadifar M, Bekele BB, Belachew AB, Belay AG, Belay E, Belay SA, Belay YA, Bell ML, Bello AK, Bennett DA, Bensenor IM, Bergeron G, Berhane A, Berman AE, Bernabe E, Bernstein RS, Bertolacci GJ, Beuran M, Bhattarai S, Bhaumik S, Bhutta ZA, Biadgo B, Bijani A, Bikbov B, Bililign N, Bin Sayeed MS, Birlik SM, Birungi C, Biswas T, Bizuneh H, Bleyer A, Basara BB, Bosetti C, Boufous S, Brady OJ, Bragazzi NL, Brainin M, Brazinova A, Breitborde NJK, Brenner H, Brewer JD, Briant PS, Britton G, Burstein R, Busse R, Butt ZA, Cahuana-Hurtado L, Campos-Nonato IR, Campuzano Rincon JC, Cano J, Car M, Cárdenas R, Carrero JJ, Carvalho F, Castañeda-Orjuela CA, Castillo Rivas J, Castro F, Catalá-López F, Çavlin A, Cerin E, Chalek J, Chang HY, Chang JC, Chattopadhyay A, Chaturvedi P, Chiang PPC, Chin KL, Chisumpa VH, Chitheer A, Choi JYJ, Chowdhury R, Christopher DJ, Cicuttini FM, Ciobanu LG, Cirillo M, Claro RM, Collado-Mateo D, Comfort H, Constantin MM, Conti S, Cooper C, Cooper LT, Cornaby L, Cortesi PA, Cortinovis M, Costa M, Cromwell E, Crowe CS, Cukelj P, Cunningham M, Daba AK, Dachew BA, Dandona L, Dandona R, Dargan PI, Daryani A, Das Gupta R, Das Neves J, Dasa TT, Dash AP, Weaver ND, Davitoiu DV, Davletov K, De Leo D, De Neve JW, Degefa MG, Degenhardt L, Degfie TT, Deiparine S, Demoz GT, Demtsu B, Denova-Gutiérrez E, Deribe K, Dervenis N, Des Jarlais DC, Dessie GA, Dharmaratne SD, Dhimal M, Dicker D, Ding EL, Dinsa GD, Djalalinia S, Do HP, Dokova K, Doku DT, Dolan KA, Doyle KE, Driscoll TR, Dubey M, Dubljanin E, Duken EE, Duraes AR, Ebrahimpour S, Edvardsson D, El Bcheraoui C, El-Khatib Z, Elyazar IR, Enayati A, Endries AY, Ermakov SP, Eshrati B, Eskandarieh S, Esmaeili R, Esteghamati A, Esteghamati S, Estep K, Fakhim H, Farag T, Faramarzi M, Fareed M, Farinha CSES, Faro A, Farvid MS, Farzadfar F, Farzaei MH, Fay KA, Fazeli MS, Feigin VL, Feigl AB, Feizy F, Fenny AP, Fentahun N, Fereshtehnejad SM, Fernandes E, Feyissa GT, Filip I, Finegold S, Fischer F, Flor LS, Foigt NA, Foreman KJ, Fornari C, Fürst T, Fukumoto T, Fuller JE, Fullman N, Gakidou E, Gallus S, Gamkrelidze A, Ganji M, Gankpe FG, Garcia GM, Garcia-Gordillo MÁ, Gebre AK, Gebre T, Gebregergs GB, Gebrehiwot TT, Gebremedhin AT, Gelano TF, Gelaw YA, Geleijnse JM, Genova-Maleras R, Gething P, Gezae KE, Ghadami MR, Ghadimi R, Ghadiri K, Ghasemi Falavarjani K, Ghasemi-Kasman M, Ghiasvand H, Ghimire M, Ghoshal AG, Gill PS, Gill TK, Giussani G, Gnedovskaya EV, Goli S, Gomez RS, Gómez-Dantés H, Gona PN, Goodridge A, Gopalani SV, Goulart AC, Goulart BNG, Grada A, Grosso G, Gugnani HCC, Guo J, Guo Y, Gupta PC, Gupta R, Gupta R, Gupta T, Haagsma JA, Hachinski V, Hafezi-Nejad N, Hagos TB, Hailegiyorgis TT, Hailu GB, Haj-Mirzaian A, Haj-Mirzaian A, Hamadeh RR, Hamidi S, Handal AJ, Hankey GJ, Hao Y, Harb HL, Haririan H, Haro JM, Hasan M, Hassankhani H, Hassen HY, Havmoeller R, Hay SI, He Y, Hedayatizadeh-Omran A, Hegazy MI, Heibati B, Heidari B, Hendrie D, Henok A, Henry NJ, Herteliu C, Heydarpour F, Hibstu DT, Hole MK, Homaie Rad E, Hoogar P, Hosgood HD, Hosseini SM, Hosseini Chavoshi MM, Hosseinzadeh M, Hostiuc M, Hostiuc S, Hsairi M, Hsiao T, Hu G, Huang JJ, Iburg KM, Igumbor EU, Ikeda CT, Ilesanmi OS, Iqbal U, Irenso AA, Irvani SSN, Isehunwa OO, Islam SMS, Jahangiry L, Jahanmehr N, Jain SK, Jakovljevic M, Jalu MT, James SL, Jassal SK, Javanbakht M, Jayatilleke AU, Jeemon P, Jha RP, Jha V, Ji JS, Jonas JB, Jozwiak JJ, Jungari SB, Jürisson M, Kabir Z, Kadel R, Kahsay A, Kalani R, Kapil U, Karami M, Matin BK, Karch A, Karema C, Karimi SM, Kasaeian A, Kassa DH, Kassa GM, Kassa TD, Kassa ZY, Kassebaum NJ, Kastor A, Katikireddi SV, Kaul A, Kawakami N, Karyani AK, Kebede S, Keiyoro PN, Kemp GR, Kengne AP, Keren A, Kereselidze M, Khader YS, Khafaie MA, Khajavi A, Khalid N, Khalil IA, Khan EA, Khan MS, Khang YH, Khanna T, Khater MM, Khatony A, Khazaeipour Z, Khazaie H, Khoja AT, Khosravi A, Khosravi MH, Kibret GD, Kidanemariam ZT, Kiirithio DN, Kilgore PE, Kim D, Kim JY, Kim YE, Kim YJ, Kimokoti RW, Kinfu Y, Kinra S, Kisa A, Kivimäki M, Kochhar S, Kokubo Y, Kolola T, Kopec JA, Kosek MN, Kosen S, Koul PA, Koyanagi A, Krishan K, Krishnaswami S, Krohn KJ, Defo BK, Bicer BK, Kumar GA, Kumar M, Kumar P, Kumsa FA, Kutz MJ, Lad SD, Lafranconi A, Lal DK, Lalloo R, Lam H, Lami FH, Lang JJ, Lanksy S, Lansingh VC, Laryea DO, Lassi ZS, Latifi A, Laxmaiah A, Lazarus JV, Lee JB, Lee PH, Leigh J, Leshargie CT, Leta S, Levi M, Li S, Li X, Li Y, Liang J, Liang X, Liben ML, Lim LL, Limenih MA, Linn S, Liu S, Lorkowski S, Lotufo PA, Lozano R, Lunevicius R, Mabika CM, Macarayan ERK, Mackay MT, Madotto F, Mahmood TAE, Mahotra NB, Majdan M, Majdzadeh R, Majeed A, Malekzadeh R, Malik MA, Mamun AA, Manamo WA, Manda AL, Mangalam S, Mansournia MA, Mantovani LG, Mapoma CC, Marami D, Maravilla JC, Marcenes W, Marina S, Martins-Melo FR, März W, Marzan MB, Mashamba-Thompson TP, Masiye F, Mason-Jones AJ, Massenburg BB, Mathur MR, Maulik PK, Mazidi M, McGrath JJ, Mehata S, Mehendale SM, Mehndiratta MM, Mehrotra R, Mehrzadi S, Mehta KM, Mehta V, Mekonnen TC, Meles HG, Meles KG, Melese A, Melku M, Memiah PTN, Memish ZA, Mendoza W, Mengesha MM, Mengistu DT, Mengistu G, Mensah GA, Mereta ST, Meretoja A, Meretoja TJ, Mestrovic T, Mezgebe HB, Miangotar Y, Miazgowski B, Miazgowski T, Miller TR, Miller-Petrie MK, Mini GK, Mirabi P, Mirica A, Mirrakhimov EM, Misganaw AT, Moazen B, Mohammad KA, Mohammadi M, Mohammadifard N, Mohammadi-Khanaposhtani M, Mohammed MA, Mohammed S, Mokdad AH, Mola GD, Molokhia M, Monasta L, Montañez JC, Moradi G, Moradi M, Moradi-Lakeh M, Moradinazar M, Moraga P, Morgado-Da-Costa J, Mori R, Morrison SD, Mosapour A, Moschos MM, Mousavi SM, Muche AA, Muchie KF, Mueller UO, Mukhopadhyay S, Muller K, Murphy TB, Murthy GVS, Musa J, Musa KI, Mustafa G, Muthupandian S, Nachega JB, Nagel G, Naghavi M, Naheed A, Nahvijou A, Naik G, Naik P, Najafi F, Naldi L, Nangia V, Nansseu JR, Nascimento BR, Nawaz H, Ncama BP, Neamati N, Negoi I, Negoi RI, Neupane S, Newton CRJ, Ngalesoni FN, Ngunjiri JW, Nguyen G, Nguyen LH, Nguyen TH, Ningrum DNA, Nirayo YL, Nisar MI, Nixon MR, Nomura S, Noroozi M, Noubiap JJ, Nouri HR, Shiadeh MN, Nowroozi MR, Nyandwi A, Nyasulu PS, Odell CM, Ofori-Asenso R, Ogah OS, Ogbo FA, Oh IH, Okoro A, Oladimeji O, Olagunju AT, Olagunju TO, Olivares PR, Olusanya BO, Olusanya JO, Ong SK, Ortiz A, Osgood-Zimmerman A, Ota E, Otieno BA, Otstavnov SS, Owolabi MO, Oyekale AS, P A M, Pakhale S, Pakhare AP, Pana A, Panda BK, Panda-Jonas S, Pandey AR, Park EK, Parsian H, Patel S, Patil ST, Patle A, Patton GC, Paturi VR, Paudel D, Pedroso MM, Peprah EK, Pereira DM, Perico N, Pesudovs K, Petri WA, Petzold M, Pierce M, Pigott DM, Pillay JD, Pirsaheb M, Polanczyk GV, Postma MJ, Pourmalek F, Pourshams A, Poustchi H, Prakash S, Prasad N, Purcell CA, Purwar MB, Qorbani M, Quansah R, Radfar A, Rafay A, Rafiei A, Rahim F, Rahimi-Movaghar A, Rahimi-Movaghar V, Rahman M, Rahman MS, Rahman MHU, Rahman MA, Rahman SU, Rai RK, Rajati F, Rajsic S, Ram U, Ranabhat CL, Ranjan P, Rawaf DL, Rawaf S, Ray SE, Razo-García C, Reiner RC, Reis C, Remuzzi G, Renzaho AMN, Resnikoff S, Rezaei S, Rezaeian S, Rezai MS, Riahi SM, Rios-Blancas MJ, Roba KT, Roberts NLS, Roever L, Ronfani L, Roshandel G, Rostami A, Rubagotti E, Ruhago GM, Sabde YD, Sachdev PS, Saddik B, Saeedi Moghaddam S, Safari H, Safari Y, Safari-Faramani R, Safdarian M, Safi S, Safiri S, Sagar R, Sahebkar A, Sahraian MA, Sajadi HS, Salahshoor MR, Salam N, Salama JS, Salamati P, Saldanha RDF, Saleem Z, Salimi Y, Salimzadeh H, Salomon JA, Salvi SS, Salz I, Sambala EZ, Samy AM, Sanabria J, Sanchez-Niño MD, Santos IS, Santric Milicevic MM, Sao Jose BP, Sardana M, Sarker AR, Sarmiento-Suárez R, Saroshe S, Sarrafzadegan N, Sartorius B, Sarvi S, Sathian B, Satpathy M, Sawant AR, Sawhney M, Saxena S, Schaeffner E, Schelonka K, Schneider IJC, Schwebel DC, Schwendicke F, Seedat S, Sekerija M, Sepanlou SG, Serván-Mori E, Shabaninejad H, Shackelford KA, Shafieesabet A, Shaheen AA, Shaikh MA, Shakir RA, Shams-Beyranvand M, Shamsi M, Shamsizadeh M, Sharafi H, Sharafi K, Sharif M, Sharif-Alhoseini M, Sharma J, Sharma R, She J, Sheikh A, Shi P, Shibuya K, Shigematsu M, Shiri R, Shirkoohi R, Shiue I, Shokraneh F, Shukla SR, Si S, Siabani S, Sibai AM, Siddiqi TJ, Sigfusdottir ID, Sigurvinsdottir R, Silpakit N, Silva DAS, Silva JP, Silveira DGA, Singam NSV, Singh JA, Singh NP, Singh V, Sinha DN, Sliwa K, Soares Filho AM, Sobaih BH, Sobhani S, Soofi M, Soriano JB, Soyiri IN, Sreeramareddy CT, Starodubov VI, Steiner C, Stewart LG, Stokes MA, Strong M, Subart ML, Sufiyan MB, Sulo G, Sunguya BF, Sur PJ, Sutradhar I, Sykes BL, Sylaja PN, Sylte DO, Szoeke CEI, Tabarés-Seisdedos R, Tabb KM, Tadakamadla SK, Tandon N, Tassew AA, Tassew SG, Taveira N, Tawye NY, Tehrani-Banihashemi A, Tekalign TG, Tekle MG, Temsah MH, Terkawi AS, Teshale MY, Tessema B, Teweldemedhin M, Thakur JS, Thankappan KR, Thirunavukkarasu S, Thomas N, Thomson AJ, Tilahun B, To QG, Tonelli M, Topor-Madry R, Torre AE, Tortajada-Girbés M, Tovani-Palone MR, Toyoshima H, Tran BX, Tran KB, Tripathy SP, Truelsen TC, Truong NT, Tsadik AG, Tsegay A, Tsilimparis N, Tudor Car L, Ukwaja KN, Ullah I, Usman MS, Uthman OA, Uzun SB, Vaduganathan M, Vaezi A, Vaidya G, Valdez PR, Varavikova E, Varughese S, Vasankari TJ, Vasconcelos AMN, Venketasubramanian N, Villafaina S, Violante FS, Vladimirov SK, Vlassov V, Vollset SE, Vos T, Vosoughi K, Vujcic IS, Wagnew FS, Waheed Y, Walson JL, Wang Y, Wang YP, Weiderpass E, Weintraub RG, Weldegwergs KG, Werdecker A, Westerman R, Whiteford H, Widecka J, Widecka K, Wijeratne T, Winkler AS, Wiysonge CS, Wolfe CDA, Wu S, Wyper GMA, Xu G, Yamada T, Yano Y, Yaseri M, Yasin YJ, Ye P, Yentür GK, Yeshaneh A, Yimer EM, Yip P, Yisma E, Yonemoto N, Yoon SJ, Yotebieng M, Younis MZ, Yousefifard M, Yu C, Zadnik V, Zaidi Z, Zaman SB, Zamani M, Zare Z, Zeleke MM, Zenebe ZM, Zerfu TA, Zhang X, Zhao XJ, Zhou M, Zhu J, Zimsen SRM, Zodpey S, Zoeckler L, Lopez AD, Lim SS. Population and fertility by age and sex for 195 countries and territories, 1950-2017: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2017. Lancet 2018; 392:1995-2051. [PMID: 30496106 PMCID: PMC6227915 DOI: 10.1016/s0140-6736(18)32278-5] [Citation(s) in RCA: 243] [Impact Index Per Article: 40.5] [Reference Citation Analysis] [What about the content of this article? (0)] [Abstract] [MESH Headings] [Grants] [Track Full Text] [Download PDF] [Figures] [Journal Information] [Submit a Manuscript] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 04/08/2018] [Revised: 09/07/2018] [Accepted: 09/12/2018] [Indexed: 02/07/2023]
Abstract
BACKGROUND Population estimates underpin demographic and epidemiological research and are used to track progress on numerous international indicators of health and development. To date, internationally available estimates of population and fertility, although useful, have not been produced with transparent and replicable methods and do not use standardised estimates of mortality. We present single-calendar year and single-year of age estimates of fertility and population by sex with standardised and replicable methods. METHODS We estimated population in 195 locations by single year of age and single calendar year from 1950 to 2017 with standardised and replicable methods. We based the estimates on the demographic balancing equation, with inputs of fertility, mortality, population, and migration data. Fertility data came from 7817 location-years of vital registration data, 429 surveys reporting complete birth histories, and 977 surveys and censuses reporting summary birth histories. We estimated age-specific fertility rates (ASFRs; the annual number of livebirths to women of a specified age group per 1000 women in that age group) by use of spatiotemporal Gaussian process regression and used the ASFRs to estimate total fertility rates (TFRs; the average number of children a woman would bear if she survived through the end of the reproductive age span [age 10-54 years] and experienced at each age a particular set of ASFRs observed in the year of interest). Because of sparse data, fertility at ages 10-14 years and 50-54 years was estimated from data on fertility in women aged 15-19 years and 45-49 years, through use of linear regression. Age-specific mortality data came from the Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study (GBD) 2017 estimates. Data on population came from 1257 censuses and 761 population registry location-years and were adjusted for underenumeration and age misreporting with standard demographic methods. Migration was estimated with the GBD Bayesian demographic balancing model, after incorporating information about refugee migration into the model prior. Final population estimates used the cohort-component method of population projection, with inputs of fertility, mortality, and migration data. Population uncertainty was estimated by use of out-of-sample predictive validity testing. With these data, we estimated the trends in population by age and sex and in fertility by age between 1950 and 2017 in 195 countries and territories. FINDINGS From 1950 to 2017, TFRs decreased by 49·4% (95% uncertainty interval [UI] 46·4-52·0). The TFR decreased from 4·7 livebirths (4·5-4·9) to 2·4 livebirths (2·2-2·5), and the ASFR of mothers aged 10-19 years decreased from 37 livebirths (34-40) to 22 livebirths (19-24) per 1000 women. Despite reductions in the TFR, the global population has been increasing by an average of 83·8 million people per year since 1985. The global population increased by 197·2% (193·3-200·8) since 1950, from 2·6 billion (2·5-2·6) to 7·6 billion (7·4-7·9) people in 2017; much of this increase was in the proportion of the global population in south Asia and sub-Saharan Africa. The global annual rate of population growth increased between 1950 and 1964, when it peaked at 2·0%; this rate then remained nearly constant until 1970 and then decreased to 1·1% in 2017. Population growth rates in the southeast Asia, east Asia, and Oceania GBD super-region decreased from 2·5% in 1963 to 0·7% in 2017, whereas in sub-Saharan Africa, population growth rates were almost at the highest reported levels ever in 2017, when they were at 2·7%. The global average age increased from 26·6 years in 1950 to 32·1 years in 2017, and the proportion of the population that is of working age (age 15-64 years) increased from 59·9% to 65·3%. At the national level, the TFR decreased in all countries and territories between 1950 and 2017; in 2017, TFRs ranged from a low of 1·0 livebirths (95% UI 0·9-1·2) in Cyprus to a high of 7·1 livebirths (6·8-7·4) in Niger. The TFR under age 25 years (TFU25; number of livebirths expected by age 25 years for a hypothetical woman who survived the age group and was exposed to current ASFRs) in 2017 ranged from 0·08 livebirths (0·07-0·09) in South Korea to 2·4 livebirths (2·2-2·6) in Niger, and the TFR over age 30 years (TFO30; number of livebirths expected for a hypothetical woman ageing from 30 to 54 years who survived the age group and was exposed to current ASFRs) ranged from a low of 0·3 livebirths (0·3-0·4) in Puerto Rico to a high of 3·1 livebirths (3·0-3·2) in Niger. TFO30 was higher than TFU25 in 145 countries and territories in 2017. 33 countries had a negative population growth rate from 2010 to 2017, most of which were located in central, eastern, and western Europe, whereas population growth rates of more than 2·0% were seen in 33 of 46 countries in sub-Saharan Africa. In 2017, less than 65% of the national population was of working age in 12 of 34 high-income countries, and less than 50% of the national population was of working age in Mali, Chad, and Niger. INTERPRETATION Population trends create demographic dividends and headwinds (ie, economic benefits and detriments) that affect national economies and determine national planning needs. Although TFRs are decreasing, the global population continues to grow as mortality declines, with diverse patterns at the national level and across age groups. To our knowledge, this is the first study to provide transparent and replicable estimates of population and fertility, which can be used to inform decision making and to monitor progress. FUNDING Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation.
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Kozlova NI, Morozevich GE, Ushakova NA, Berman AE. Implication of Integrin α2β1 in Proliferation and Invasion of Human Breast Carcinoma and Melanoma Cells: Noncanonical Function of Akt Protein Kinase. Biochemistry (Mosc) 2018; 83:738-745. [PMID: 30195330 DOI: 10.1134/s0006297918060111] [Citation(s) in RCA: 13] [Impact Index Per Article: 2.2] [Reference Citation Analysis] [What about the content of this article? (0)] [Affiliation(s)] [Abstract] [Track Full Text] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Indexed: 01/04/2023]
Abstract
Blocking the expression of integrin α2β1, which was accomplished by transduction of α2-specific shRNA, resulted in significant inhibition of proliferation and clonal activity in human MCF-7 breast carcinoma and SK-Mel-147 melanoma cells. Along with these changes, deprivation of α2β1 caused a sharp decrease in melanoma cell invasion in vitro. Analysis of integrin-mediating signal pathways that control cell behavior revealed a significant increase in activity of Akt protein kinase in response to depletion of α2β1. The increase in Akt activity that accompanies a suppressive effect on cell invasion contradicts well-known Akt function aimed at stimulation of tumor progression. This contradiction could be explained by the "reversed" (noncanonical) role played by Akt in some cells that consists in suppression rather than promotion of invasive phenotype. To test this suggestion, the effects of Akt inhibitors on invasive activity of SK-Mel-147 cells were investigated. If the above suggestion is true, then inhibition of Akt in cells depleted of α2β1 should result in the restoration of their invasive activity. It appeared that treatment with LY294002, which inhibits all Akt isoforms (Akt1, Akt2, Akt3), not only failed to restore the invasive phenotype of melanoma cells but further attenuated their invasive activity. However, treatment of the cells with an Akt1-specific inhibitor significantly increased their invasion. Thus, the stimulating effect of α2β1 integrin on invasion of melanoma cells is realized through a mechanism based on inhibition of one of the Akt isoforms, which in these cells exhibits a noncanonical function consisting in suppression of invasion.
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Affiliation(s)
- N I Kozlova
- Orekhovich Institute of Biomedical Chemistry, Russian Academy of Sciences, Moscow, 119121, Russia
| | - G E Morozevich
- Orekhovich Institute of Biomedical Chemistry, Russian Academy of Sciences, Moscow, 119121, Russia
| | - N A Ushakova
- Orekhovich Institute of Biomedical Chemistry, Russian Academy of Sciences, Moscow, 119121, Russia
| | - A E Berman
- Orekhovich Institute of Biomedical Chemistry, Russian Academy of Sciences, Moscow, 119121, Russia.
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Cuomo JR, Javaheri SP, Sharma GK, Kapoor D, Berman AE, Weintraub NL. How to prevent and manage radiation-induced coronary artery disease. Heart 2018; 104:1647-1653. [PMID: 29764968 DOI: 10.1136/heartjnl-2017-312123] [Citation(s) in RCA: 39] [Impact Index Per Article: 6.5] [Reference Citation Analysis] [What about the content of this article? (0)] [Affiliation(s)] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Submit a Manuscript] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 01/08/2018] [Revised: 04/10/2018] [Accepted: 04/16/2018] [Indexed: 01/04/2023] Open
Abstract
Radiation-induced coronary heart disease (RICHD) is the second most common cause of morbidity and mortality in patients treated with radiotherapy for breast cancer, Hodgkin's lymphoma and other prevalent mediastinal malignancies. The risk of RICHD increases with radiation dose. Exposed patients may present decades after treatment with manifestations ranging from asymptomatic myocardial perfusion defects to ostial, triple-vessel disease and sudden cardiac death. RICHD is insidious, with a long latency and a tendency to remain silent late into the disease course. Vessel involvement is often diffuse and is preferentially proximal. The pathophysiology is similar to that of accelerated atherosclerosis, characterised by the formation of inflammatory plaque with high collagen and fibrin content. The presence of conventional risk factors potentiates RICHD, and aggressive risk factor management should ideally be initiated prior to radiation therapy. Stress echocardiography is more sensitive and specific than myocardial perfusion imaging in the detection of RICHD, and CT coronary angiography shows promise in risk stratification. Coronary artery bypass grafting is associated with higher risks of graft failure, perioperative complications and all-cause mortality in patients with RICHD. In most cases, the use of drug-eluting stents is preferable to surgical intervention, bare metal stenting or balloon-angioplasty alone.
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Affiliation(s)
- Jason R Cuomo
- Department of Medicine, Division of Cardiology, Medical College of Georgia at Augusta University, Augusta, Georgia, USA
| | - Sean P Javaheri
- Department of Medicine, Division of Cardiology, Medical College of Georgia at Augusta University, Augusta, Georgia, USA
| | - Gyanendra K Sharma
- Department of Medicine, Division of Cardiology, Medical College of Georgia at Augusta University, Augusta, Georgia, USA
| | - Deepak Kapoor
- Department of Medicine, Division of Cardiology, Medical College of Georgia at Augusta University, Augusta, Georgia, USA
| | - Adam E Berman
- Department of Medicine, Division of Cardiology, Medical College of Georgia at Augusta University, Augusta, Georgia, USA
| | - Neal L Weintraub
- Department of Medicine, Division of Cardiology, Vascular Biology Center, Medical College of Georgia at Augusta University, Augusta, Georgia, USA
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Berman AE, Rivner H, Chalkley R, Heboyan V. A comparative analysis of clinical outcomes and disposable costs of different catheter ablation methods for the treatment of atrioventricular nodal reentrant tachycardia. Clinicoecon Outcomes Res 2017; 9:677-683. [PMID: 29138585 PMCID: PMC5680894 DOI: 10.2147/ceor.s139861] [Citation(s) in RCA: 3] [Impact Index Per Article: 0.4] [Reference Citation Analysis] [What about the content of this article? (0)] [Affiliation(s)] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Track Full Text] [Download PDF] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Indexed: 12/13/2022] Open
Abstract
Background Catheter ablation of atrioventricular nodal reentrant tachycardia (AVNRT) is a commonly performed electrophysiology (EP) procedure. Few data exist comparing conventional (CONV) versus novel ablation strategies from both clinical and direct cost perspectives. We sought to investigate the disposable costs and clinical outcomes associated with three different ablation methodologies used in the ablation of AVNRT. Methods We performed a retrospective review of AVNRT ablations performed at Augusta University Medical Center from 2006 to 2014. A total of 183 patients were identified. Three different ablation techniques were compared: CONV manual radiofrequency (RF) (n=60), remote magnetic navigation (RMN)-guided RF (n=67), and cryoablation (CRYO) (n=56). Results Baseline demographics did not differ between the three groups except for a higher prevalence of cardiomyopathy in the RMN group (p<0.01). The clinical end point of interest was recurrent AVNRT following the index ablation procedure. A significantly higher number of recurrent AVNRT cases occurred in the CRYO group as compared to CONV and RMN (p=0.003; OR =7.75) groups. Cost-benefit analysis showed both CONV and RMN to be dominant compared to CRYO. Cost-minimization analysis demonstrated the least expensive ablation method to be CONV (mean disposable catheter cost = CONV US$2340; CRYO US$3515; RMN US$5190). Despite comparable clinical outcomes, the incremental cost of RMN over CONV averaged US$3094 per procedure. Conclusion AVNRT ablation using either CONV or RMN techniques is equally effective and associated with lower AVNRT recurrence rates than CRYO. CONV ablation carries significant disposable cost savings as compared to RMN, despite similar efficacy.
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Affiliation(s)
- Adam E Berman
- Department of Medicine, Medical College of Georgia.,Department of Clinical and Digital Health Sciences, College of Allied Health Sciences.,Division of Cardiology.,Department of Pediatrics, Medical College of Georgia, Augusta University, Augusta, GA, USA
| | | | | | - Vahé Heboyan
- Department of Clinical and Digital Health Sciences, College of Allied Health Sciences
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41
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Morozevich GE, Kozlova NI, Susova OY, Lupatov AY, Berman AE. Hyperexpression of Integrin α5β1 Promotes Resistance of MCF-7 Human Breast Carcinoma Cells to Doxorubicin via ERK Protein Kinase Down-regulation. Biochemistry (Mosc) 2017; 82:1017-1024. [PMID: 28988530 DOI: 10.1134/s0006297917090048] [Citation(s) in RCA: 3] [Impact Index Per Article: 0.4] [Reference Citation Analysis] [What about the content of this article? (0)] [Affiliation(s)] [Abstract] [Track Full Text] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Indexed: 01/13/2023]
Abstract
In MCF-7 human breast carcinoma cells, α5β1 integrin hyperexpression, which was accomplished by transduction of a full-length α5 integrin cDNA, increased by about 50-70% the number of cells, survived during 48-72 h cell treatment with doxorubicin. Up-regulation of α5β1 reduced the level of the apoptogenic p53 protein and p21 cell cycle inhibitor, but enhanced the activity of Akt and mTOR protein kinases. In addition to these findings, we observed a significant decrease in the activity of both isoforms of phosphokinase Erk1/2, which is known to play a key role in cell viability pathways, including pathways alleviating stress damages caused by distinct antitumor drugs. Diminished Erk activity accompanying the rise of drug resistance can be explained by an "atypical" function of this kinase, which, in the cells studied, promotes an enhanced rather than reduced sensitivity to doxorubicin. To verify this suggestion, the effect of a specific Erk inhibitor, PD98059, on the resistance to doxorubicin of control and α5 cDNA-transduced MCF-7 cells was investigated. The data showed that suppression of Erk activity increased the resistance of control cells (transduced with an "empty" vector) to a level higher than that demonstrated by the α5 cDNA-transduced cells. The highest level of resistance was observed in α5β1-trancduced cells treated with PD98059. Akt and mTOR kinase inhibitors had little if any effect on doxorubicin resistance of α5 cDNA-transduced MCF-7 cells. The data show for the first time that integrin α5β1 can stimulate drug resistance of tumor cells through a mechanism based on the inhibition of protein kinase Erk. From a more general view, the results of this investigation suggest that signal protein kinases can perform in tumor cells "non-canonical" functions, opposite to those, which are the basis for using kinase inhibitors in targeted cancer therapy. It follows that if a protein kinase is supposed to be used as a target for such therapy, it is important to explore its features in the particular tumor prior to the onset of treatment.
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Affiliation(s)
- G E Morozevich
- Orekhovich Institute of Biomedical Chemistry, Moscow, 119121, Russia.
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42
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Campbell CR, Berman AE, Weintraub NL, Tang YL. Electrical stimulation to optimize cardioprotective exosomes from cardiac stem cells. Med Hypotheses 2016; 88:6-9. [PMID: 26880625 DOI: 10.1016/j.mehy.2015.12.022] [Citation(s) in RCA: 25] [Impact Index Per Article: 3.1] [Reference Citation Analysis] [What about the content of this article? (0)] [Affiliation(s)] [Abstract] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 07/27/2015] [Accepted: 12/25/2015] [Indexed: 01/18/2023]
Abstract
Injured or ischemic cardiac tissue has limited intrinsic capacity for regeneration. While stem cell transplantation is a promising approach to stimulating cardiac repair, its success in humans has thus far been limited. Harnessing the therapeutic benefits of stem cells requires a better understanding of their mechanisms of action and methods to optimize their function. Cardiac stem cells (CSC) represent a particularly effective cellular source for cardiac repair, and pre-conditioning CSC with electrical stimulation (EleS) was demonstrated to further enhance their function, although the mechanisms are unknown. Recent studies suggest that transplanted stem cells primarily exert their effects through communicating with endogenous tissues via the release of exosomes containing cardioprotective molecules such as miRNAs, which upon uptake by recipient cells may stimulate survival, proliferation, and angiogenesis. Exosomes are also effective therapeutic agents in isolation and may provide a feasible alternative to stem cell transplantation. We hypothesize that EleS enhances CSC-mediated cardiac repair through its beneficial effects on production of cardioprotective exosomes. Moreover, we hypothesize that the beneficial effects of biventricular pacing in patients with heart failure may in part result from EleS-induced preconditioning of endogenous CSC to promote cardiac repair. With future research, our hypothesis may provide applications to optimize stem cell therapy and augment current pacing protocols, which may significantly advance the treatment of patients with heart disease.
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Affiliation(s)
- C R Campbell
- Vascular Biology Center, Department of Medicine, Medical College of Georgia/Georgia Regents University, 1459 Laney Walker Boulevard, Augusta, GA 30912, United States
| | - A E Berman
- Vascular Biology Center, Department of Medicine, Medical College of Georgia/Georgia Regents University, 1459 Laney Walker Boulevard, Augusta, GA 30912, United States
| | - N L Weintraub
- Vascular Biology Center, Department of Medicine, Medical College of Georgia/Georgia Regents University, 1459 Laney Walker Boulevard, Augusta, GA 30912, United States
| | - Y L Tang
- Vascular Biology Center, Department of Medicine, Medical College of Georgia/Georgia Regents University, 1459 Laney Walker Boulevard, Augusta, GA 30912, United States.
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43
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Bianchi-Smiraglia A, Wawrzyniak JA, Bagati A, Marvin EK, Ackroyd J, Moparthy S, Bshara W, Fink EE, Foley CE, Morozevich GE, Berman AE, Shewach DS, Nikiforov MA. Pharmacological targeting of guanosine monophosphate synthase suppresses melanoma cell invasion and tumorigenicity. Cell Death Differ 2015; 22:1858-64. [PMID: 25909885 PMCID: PMC4648332 DOI: 10.1038/cdd.2015.47] [Citation(s) in RCA: 22] [Impact Index Per Article: 2.4] [Reference Citation Analysis] [What about the content of this article? (0)] [Affiliation(s)] [Abstract] [MESH Headings] [Grants] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 02/26/2015] [Revised: 03/12/2015] [Accepted: 03/16/2015] [Indexed: 12/20/2022] Open
Abstract
Malignant melanoma possesses one of the highest metastatic potentials among human cancers. Acquisition of invasive phenotypes is a prerequisite for melanoma metastases. Elucidation of the molecular mechanisms underlying melanoma invasion will greatly enhance the design of novel agents for melanoma therapeutic intervention. Here, we report that guanosine monophosphate synthase (GMPS), an enzyme required for the de novo biosynthesis of GMP, has a major role in invasion and tumorigenicity of cells derived from either BRAF(V600E) or NRAS(Q61R) human metastatic melanomas. Moreover, GMPS levels are increased in metastatic human melanoma specimens compared with primary melanomas arguing that GMPS is an attractive candidate for anti-melanoma therapy. Accordingly, for the first time we demonstrate that angustmycin A, a nucleoside-analog inhibitor of GMPS produced by Streptomyces hygroscopius efficiently suppresses melanoma cell invasion in vitro and tumorigenicity in immunocompromised mice. Our data identify GMPS as a powerful driver of melanoma cell invasion and warrant further investigation of angustmycin A as a novel anti-melanoma agent.
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Affiliation(s)
- A Bianchi-Smiraglia
- Department of Cell Stress Biology, Roswell Park Cancer Institute, Buffalo, NY 14263, USA
| | - J A Wawrzyniak
- Department of Cell Stress Biology, Roswell Park Cancer Institute, Buffalo, NY 14263, USA
| | - A Bagati
- Department of Cell Stress Biology, Roswell Park Cancer Institute, Buffalo, NY 14263, USA
| | - E K Marvin
- Department of Cell Stress Biology, Roswell Park Cancer Institute, Buffalo, NY 14263, USA
| | - J Ackroyd
- Department of Pharmacology, University of Michigan, Ann Arbor, MI 48109, USA
| | - S Moparthy
- Department of Cell Stress Biology, Roswell Park Cancer Institute, Buffalo, NY 14263, USA
| | - W Bshara
- Department of Pathology, Roswell Park Cancer Institute, Buffalo, NY 14263, USA
| | - E E Fink
- Department of Cell Stress Biology, Roswell Park Cancer Institute, Buffalo, NY 14263, USA
| | - C E Foley
- Department of Cell Stress Biology, Roswell Park Cancer Institute, Buffalo, NY 14263, USA
| | - G E Morozevich
- Orekhovich Institute of Biomedical Chemistry, Moscow 119121, Russia
| | - A E Berman
- Orekhovich Institute of Biomedical Chemistry, Moscow 119121, Russia
| | - D S Shewach
- Department of Pharmacology, University of Michigan, Ann Arbor, MI 48109, USA
| | - M A Nikiforov
- Department of Cell Stress Biology, Roswell Park Cancer Institute, Buffalo, NY 14263, USA
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44
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Morozevich GE, Kozlova NI, Susova OY, Karalkin PA, Berman AE. Implication of α2β1 integrin in anoikis of MCF-7 human breast carcinoma cells. Biochemistry (Mosc) 2015; 80:97-103. [PMID: 25754044 DOI: 10.1134/s0006297915010113] [Citation(s) in RCA: 14] [Impact Index Per Article: 1.6] [Reference Citation Analysis] [What about the content of this article? (0)] [Affiliation(s)] [Abstract] [Track Full Text] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Indexed: 01/30/2023]
Abstract
Silencing of α2β1 integrin expression significantly promoted anchorage-dependent apoptosis (anoikis) and drastically reduced clonal activity of MCF-7 human breast carcinoma cells. Depletion of α2β1 enhanced the production of apoptotic protein p53 and of inhibitor of cyclin-dependent protein kinases, p27, while downregulating antiapoptotic protein Bcl-2 and multifunctional protein cMyc. Blocking the expression of α2β1 had no effect on activity of protein kinase Akt, but it sharply increased the kinase activity of Erk1/2. Pharmacological inhibition of Erk1/2 had a minor effect on anoikis of control cells, while it reduced anoikis of cells with downregulated α2β1 to the level of control cells. The data show for the first time that integrin α2β1 is implicated in the protection of tumor cells from anoikis through a mechanism based on the inhibition of protein kinase Erk.
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Affiliation(s)
- G E Morozevich
- Orekhovich Institute of Biomedical Chemistry, Russian Academy of Medical Sciences, Moscow, 119121, Russia.
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45
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Karcher R, Berman AE, Gross H, Hess DC, Jauch EC, Viser PE, Solenski NJ, Wolf AMD. Addressing Disparities in Stroke Prevention for Atrial Fibrillation: Educational Opportunities. Am J Med Qual 2015; 31:337-48. [PMID: 25788477 DOI: 10.1177/1062860615577971] [Citation(s) in RCA: 7] [Impact Index Per Article: 0.8] [Reference Citation Analysis] [What about the content of this article? (0)] [Affiliation(s)] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Indexed: 11/16/2022]
Abstract
Disparities in atrial fibrillation (AF)-related stroke and mortality persist, especially racial disparities, within the US "Stroke Belt." This study identified barriers to optimal stroke prevention to develop a framework for clinician education. A comprehensive educational needs assessment was developed focusing on clinicians within the Stroke Belt. The mixed qualitative-quantitative approach included regional surveys and one-on-one clinician interviews. Identified contributors to disparities included implicit racial biases, lack of awareness of racial disparities in AF stroke risk, and lack of effective multicultural awareness and training. Additional barriers affecting disparities included patient medical mistrust and clinician-patient communication challenges. General barriers included lack of consistency in assessing stroke and anticoagulant-related bleeding risk, underuse of standardized risk assessment tools, discomfort with novel anticoagulants, and patient education deficiencies. Effective cultural competency training is one strategy to reduce disparities in AF-related stroke and mortality by improving implicit clinician bias, addressing medical mistrust, and improving clinician-patient communication.
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Affiliation(s)
| | - Adam E Berman
- Medical College of Georgia at Georgia Regents University, Augusta, GA
| | - Hartmut Gross
- Medical College of Georgia at Georgia Regents University, Augusta, GA
| | - David C Hess
- Medical College of Georgia at Georgia Regents University, Augusta, GA
| | | | | | - Nina J Solenski
- University of Virginia School of Medicine, Charlottesville, VA
| | - Andrew M D Wolf
- University of Virginia School of Medicine, Charlottesville, VA
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46
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Tung W, Weintraub NL, Berman AE, Tang Y. A novel high throughput approach to screen for cardiac arrhythmic events following stem cell treatment. Med Hypotheses 2015; 84:294-7. [PMID: 25655221 DOI: 10.1016/j.mehy.2015.01.015] [Citation(s) in RCA: 1] [Impact Index Per Article: 0.1] [Reference Citation Analysis] [What about the content of this article? (0)] [Affiliation(s)] [Abstract] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 08/15/2014] [Accepted: 01/11/2015] [Indexed: 12/19/2022]
Abstract
Although stem cell therapy is promising for repairing damaged cardiac tissue and improving heart function, there are safety concerns, especially regarding the risk of arrhythmias, which can be life threatening. To address this issue, we propose to develop a novel screening system to evaluate arrhythmic risk associated with stem cell therapy using a high-throughput multielectrode array system that can measure conduction velocity and action potential duration in cardiomyocytes co-cultured with different types of stem cells, such as mesenchymal stem cells, skeletal myoblasts, and resident cardiac stem cells. We will assess the arrhythmic potential of each of these types of stem cells under normoxic and hypoxic conditions, with/without application of oxidative stress or catecholamines. We hypothesize that these methods will prove to be an effective way to screen for arrhythmic risk of cardiac stem cell therapy. Ultimately, our approach can potentially be personalized to develop a robust screening protocol in order to identify which stem cell type carries the least amount of risk for arrhythmia. This system will have great clinical benefit to improve the risk/benefit ratio of human stem cell therapy for heart disease.
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Affiliation(s)
- William Tung
- Vascular Biology Center, Department of Medicine, Medical College of Georgia/Georgia Regents University, 1459 Laney Walker Blvd, Augusta, GA 30912, USA
| | - Neal L Weintraub
- Vascular Biology Center, Department of Medicine, Medical College of Georgia/Georgia Regents University, 1459 Laney Walker Blvd, Augusta, GA 30912, USA
| | - Adam E Berman
- Vascular Biology Center, Department of Medicine, Medical College of Georgia/Georgia Regents University, 1459 Laney Walker Blvd, Augusta, GA 30912, USA
| | - Yaoliang Tang
- Vascular Biology Center, Department of Medicine, Medical College of Georgia/Georgia Regents University, 1459 Laney Walker Blvd, Augusta, GA 30912, USA.
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47
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Abstract
The review briefly summarizes information of structure of integrins and their involvement in the development and malignant progression of tumors. Special attention is paid to approaches based on modification of functional properties of integrins that prevent/antagonize tumor growth and progression; these approaches developed in modem experimental biology have certain perspective in clinical application.
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48
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Morozevich GE, Kozlova NI, Ushakova NA, Preobrazhenskaia ME, Berman AE. [Implication of integrin alpha5beta1 in human breast carcinoma apoptosis and drug resistance]. Biomed Khim 2011; 57:77-84. [PMID: 21516779 DOI: 10.18097/pbmc20115701077] [Citation(s) in RCA: 9] [Impact Index Per Article: 0.7] [Reference Citation Analysis] [What about the content of this article? (0)] [Abstract] [MESH Headings] [Track Full Text] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Indexed: 11/23/2022]
Abstract
Doxorubicin-resistant MCF-7Dox line, which is a derivative of the drug-sensitive MCF-7 human breast carcinoma line, differs from the latter by a strongly reduced expression of the alpha2beta1 integrin and a highly increased expression of the alpha5beta1 receptor. Silencing of this integrin in the MCF-7Dox cells by transfection with alpha5-specific siRNA markedly stimulated anoikis and increased sensitivity of the cells to doxorubicin. Alpha5beta1 silencing also leads to significant inhibition of the activity of kinases Akt and Erk2 in MCF-7Dox cells. Our results suggest that integrins alpha5beta1-induced signals, controlling distinct aspects of cell behavior, are conducted through the common signal pathways.
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49
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Zhuang D, Mannava S, Grachtchouk V, Tang WH, Patil S, Wawrzyniak JA, Berman AE, Giordano TJ, Prochownik EV, Soengas MS, Nikiforov MA. C-MYC overexpression is required for continuous suppression of oncogene-induced senescence in melanoma cells. Oncogene 2008; 27:6623-34. [PMID: 18679422 DOI: 10.1038/onc.2008.258] [Citation(s) in RCA: 150] [Impact Index Per Article: 9.4] [Reference Citation Analysis] [What about the content of this article? (0)] [Affiliation(s)] [Abstract] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Indexed: 11/09/2022]
Abstract
Malignant melanomas often harbor activating mutations in BRAF (V600E) or, less frequently, in NRAS (Q61R). Intriguingly, the same mutations have been detected at higher incidences in benign nevi, which are largely composed of senescent melanocytes. Overexpression of BRAF(V600E) or NRAS(Q61R) in human melanocytes in vitro has been shown to induce senescence, although via different mechanisms. How oncogene-induced senescence is overcome during melanoma progression remains unclear. Here, we report that in the majority of analysed BRAF(V600E)- or NRAS(Q61R)-expressing melanoma cells, C-MYC depletion induced different yet overlapping sets of senescence phenotypes that are characteristic of normal melanocytes undergoing senescence due to overexpression of BRAF(V600E) or NRAS(Q61R), respectively. These senescence phenotypes were p16(INK4A)- or p53-independent, however, several of them were suppressed by genetic or pharmacological inhibition of BRAF(V600E) or phosphoinositide 3-kinase pathways, including rapamycin-mediated inhibition of mTOR-raptor in NRAS(Q61R)-expressing melanoma cells. Reciprocally, overexpression of C-MYC in normal melanocytes suppressed BRAF(V600E)-induced senescence more efficiently than NRAS(Q61R)-induced senescence, which agrees with the generally higher rates of activating mutations in BRAF than NRAS gene in human cutaneous melanomas. Our data suggest that one of the major functions of C-MYC overexpression in melanoma progression is to continuous suppress BRAF(V600E)- or NRAS(Q61R)-dependent senescence programs.
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Affiliation(s)
- D Zhuang
- Department of Cell Stress Biology, Roswell Park Cancer Institute, Buffalo, NY 14263, USA
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50
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Atiyeh RH, Arthur ME, Berman AE, Castresana MR. The utility of ketamine in facilitating the induction of isoproterenol-refractory idiopathic ventricular tachyarrhythmias. J Cardiothorac Vasc Anesth 2008; 23:373-8. [PMID: 18834838 DOI: 10.1053/j.jvca.2008.04.013] [Citation(s) in RCA: 6] [Impact Index Per Article: 0.4] [Reference Citation Analysis] [What about the content of this article? (0)] [Affiliation(s)] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Submit a Manuscript] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 01/04/2008] [Indexed: 11/11/2022]
Affiliation(s)
- Rony H Atiyeh
- Department of Anesthesiology and Perioperative Medicine, Division of Cardiothoracic and Critical Care Anesthesiology, Medical College of Georgia, Augusta, GA 30912, USA.
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