Dermatologic manifestations in pediatric patients with inflammatory bowel disease

BACKGROUND

Despite studies of dermatologic manifestations in adults with inflammatory bowel disease (IBD), little is known about the prevalence of IBD-associated skin lesions and their correlation with IBD severity in children. We aimed to address these knowledge gaps in our single-center cohort of children with IBD.

METHODS

Retrospective chart review of 528 children and adolescents (≤18 years old) with IBD and seen at Mayo Clinic (Rochester, MN) between 1999 and 2017 was conducted. The Chi-Square/Fischer's exact test (with p ≤ .05 to signify statistical significance) was applied to compare categorical outcomes between Crohn's disease (CD) and ulcerative colitis (UC) patients.

RESULTS

In total, 425 IBD patients (64.9% CD, 53% males) and ≥1 dermatologic diagnosis were included. Presence of ≥1 cutaneous infection was recorded in 42.8% of participants. Acne was the most common non-infectious dermatologic condition (30.8%), followed by eczema (15.8%) and perianal skin tags (14.6%). Angular cheilitis (p = .024), keratosis pilaris (KP, p = .003), and perianal skin complications (i.e., skin tags, fistula, and abscesses; all p < .001) were more frequently diagnosed among children with CD, while fungal skin infections (p = .017) were more frequently diagnosed in UC patients. Severity of IBD correlated with higher prevalence of perianal fistula (p = .003), perianal abscess (p = .041), psoriasis (p < .001), and pyoderma gangrenosum (PG, p = .003).

CONCLUSIONS

Both IBD-specific and IBD-nonspecific dermatologic conditions are very prevalent in childhood IBD, the most common being infectious. Children with CD are more likely to experience angular cheilitis, KP, and perianal skin findings than those with UC. Perianal disease, psoriasis, and PG are associated with more severe IBD.

Global, regional, and national incidence of six major immune-mediated inflammatory diseases: findings from the global burden of disease study 2019

Background

The causes for immune-mediated inflammatory diseases (IMIDs) are diverse and the incidence trends of IMIDs from specific causes are rarely studied. The study aims to investigate the pattern and trend of IMIDs from 1990 to 2019.

Methods

We collected detailed information on six major causes of IMIDs, including asthma, inflammatory bowel disease, multiple sclerosis, rheumatoid arthritis, psoriasis, and atopic dermatitis, between 1990 and 2019, derived from the Global Burden of Disease study in 2019. The average annual percent change (AAPC) in number of incidents and age standardized incidence rate (ASR) on IMIDs, by sex, age, region, and causes, were calculated to quantify the temporal trends.

Findings

In 2019, rheumatoid arthritis, atopic dermatitis, asthma, multiple sclerosis, psoriasis, inflammatory bowel disease accounted 1.59%, 36.17%, 54.71%, 0.09%, 6.84%, 0.60% of overall new IMIDs cases, respectively. The ASR of IMIDs showed substantial regional and global variation with the highest in High SDI region, High-income North America, and United States of America. Throughout human lifespan, the age distribution of incident cases from six IMIDs was quite different. Globally, incident cases of IMIDs increased with an AAPC of 0.68 and the ASR decreased with an AAPC of -0.34 from 1990 to 2019. The incident cases increased across six IMIDs, the ASR of rheumatoid arthritis increased (0.21, 95% CI 0.18, 0.25), while the ASR of asthma (AAPC = -0.41), inflammatory bowel disease (AAPC = -0.72), multiple sclerosis (AAPC = -0.26), psoriasis (AAPC = -0.77), and atopic dermatitis (AAPC = -0.15) decreased. The ASR of overall and six individual IMID increased with SDI at regional and global level. Countries with higher ASR in 1990 experienced a more rapid decrease in ASR.

Interpretation

The incidence patterns of IMIDs varied considerably across the world. Innovative prevention and integrative management strategy are urgently needed to mitigate the increasing ASR of rheumatoid arthritis and upsurging new cases of other five IMIDs, respectively.

Funding

The Global Burden of Disease Study is funded by the Bill and Melinda Gates Foundation. The project funded by Scientific Research Fund of Sichuan Academy of Medical Sciences & Sichuan Provincial People's Hospital (2022QN38).

Bullous systemic lupus erythematosus in females

Bullous systemic lupus erythematosus (BSLE) is a rare blistering presentation of systemic lupus erythematosus, typically affecting women with the highest incidence in those of African descent. The key pathogenic insult includes the formation of autoantibodies against type VII collagen, which weaken the basement membrane zone and lead to the formation of subepidermal blisters. The acute vesiculobullous eruptions in BSLE generally tend to affect photo-distributed areas, although they can arise unrelated to sun exposure (eg, mucous membranes, axillae). The bullae can arise from erythematous macules, inflammatory plaques, or previously normal skin. Their appearance can range from small, grouped vesicles reminiscent of lesions in dermatitis herpetiformis to large, tense blisters, similar to bullous pemphigoid. Internal organ involvement occurs in up to 90% of those affected. This mostly includes lupus nephritis (classes III–V, lifetime prevalence of up to 90%), arthralgias/arthritis, and cytopenias, while serositis and neuropsychiatric involvement are rare. First-line management with dapsone should be considered in mild disease with stable underlying systemic lupus erythematosus. As discussed in this review, the off-label use of rituximab (an anti-CD20 B-cell depleting agent) has been shown to be safe and effective in several refractory cases of BSLE unresponsive to dapsone, glucocorticoids, or steroid-sparing immunosuppressants.

Autoimmune Skin Disease Exacerbations Following COVID-19 Vaccination

Background

Vaccination against COVID-19 reduces the risk of severe COVID-19 disease and death. However, few studies have examined the safety of the COVID-19 vaccine in patients with autoimmune skin disease.

Objectives

We sought to determine the incidence of disease exacerbation in this population following COVID-19 vaccination as well as the associated factors.

Methods

We performed a chart review of all patients seen in the autoimmune skin disease clinic of the principal investigator during the study period. All patients included for analysis were systematically and prospectively asked about COVID-19 vaccination status, manufacturers, vaccine dates, autoimmune symptoms after the vaccine, and timing of symptom onset using a standardized template as part of their visit. Demographics and autoimmune disease diagnosis were also collected. Analysis used Chi-square and Fisher's exact tests.

Results

402 subjects were included for analysis. 85.6% of patients were fully vaccinated, with 12.9% unvaccinated and 1.5% partially vaccinated. 14.8% of fully vaccinated patients reported worsening autoimmune signs and symptoms after the vaccine. Fully vaccinated dermatomyositis patients were more likely to report worsening autoimmune signs and symptoms after the vaccine (22.7%) than fully vaccinated lupus erythematosus patients (8.6%) (p=0.009). Patients fully vaccinated with the Moderna vaccine trended towards an increased likelihood of reporting worsening autoimmune signs and symptoms after the vaccine (19.1%) than those with the Pfizer-BioNTech vaccine (12.0%) (p=0.076). Of the patients who had autoimmune symptoms after vaccination, 20% had symptoms after the 1st dose, 82% after the 2nd dose, and 4% after the 3rd dose with median onset (95% confidence interval) of 7 (2,14), 14 (14,21), and 18 (7,28) days later, respectively.

Conclusions

More fully vaccinated dermatomyositis patients had exacerbation of autoimmune signs and symptoms after the vaccine than fully vaccinated lupus erythematosus patients. However, given the risks of COVID-19, clinicians should still promote vaccination in most patients with autoimmune skin disease.

Interventions for Cutaneous Disease in Systemic Lupus Erythematosus: Summary of a Cochrane Review

Clinical Question

What is the efficacy of interventions for cutaneous disease in systemic lupus erythematosus (SLE) in randomized clinical trials (RCTs)?

Bottom Line

Available RCT evidence on the management of cutaneous disease in SLE is sparse and of limited quality. Among traditional options, methotrexate and hydroxychloroquine have the strongest evidence compared with placebo in the end points of complete clinical response and number of clinical flares, respectively, while chloroquine appears noninferior to methotrexate in achieving complete clinical response.

Association of Sun-Protective Behaviors With Bone Mineral Density and Osteoporotic Bone Fractures in US Adults

Importance

Despite the reassuring emerging evidence on the lack of a causal relationship between sun protection and vitamin D deficiency, there is scarce data on whether multimodal sun protection is associated with reduced bone mineral density (BMD) and/or increased prevalence of osteoporotic bone fractures. This lack of data may lead to worry and decreased sun-protective behaviors on the part of patients.

Objective

To investigate the association of sun-protective behaviors with BMD z scores and the prevalence of osteoporotic fractures.

Design, Setting, and Participants

This population-based cross-sectional study included data from US adults who participated in the 2017 to 2018 cycle of the National Health and Nutrition Examination Survey (NHANES). Data were analyzed between September and November 2020.

Main Outcomes and Measures

Definition of sun-protective behaviors (staying in the shade, wearing long sleeves, and sunscreen use), site-specific and total BMD, and osteoporotic fractures (hip, wrist, and spine) in the NHANES data.

Results

Data from 3418 adults 20 years and older (average age, 39.5 [95% CI, 38.6-40.4] years; 1612 [47.2%] men and 1806 [52.9%] women) who completed the NHANES dermatology questionnaire were included in this study. The prevalence of frequent staying in the shade, wearing of long sleeves, and sunscreen use were 31.6% (95% CI, 27.8%-35.7%), 11.8% (95% CI, 10.6%-13.1%), and 26.1% (95% CI, 23.5%-28.8%), respectively. The use of individual sun-protective behaviors was not associated with diminished site-specific and total BMD z scores in the multivariate models (estimate, -0.23 [95% CI, -0.47 to 0.02], P = .18; -0.08 [-0.27 to 0.12], P = .72; and -0.10 [-0.32 to 0.13], P = .15 for frequent staying in the shade, wearing of long sleeves, and sunscreen use, respectively). Moderate to frequent staying in the shade was associated with reduced prevalence of spine fractures in the multivariate model (odds ratio, 0.19 [95% CI, 0.04-0.86], P = 0.02).

Conclusion and Relevance

In this cross-sectional study, routine use of sun-protective behaviors among the US adult population was not associated with decreased BMD or increased risk of osteoporotic fracture. Sun protection may be associated with a modest decrease in the prevalence of osteoporotic fractures, possibly owing to risk-averse behaviors. These reassuring findings add to the growing body of evidence on the safety of sun protection, with no considerable negative association with bone health.

Trends in utilization of non-first-line topical acne medications among children, adolescents, and adults in the United States, 2012-2016

BACKGROUND/OBJECTIVE

Current knowledge about usage of effective, but non-first-line topical acne medications in the United States is limited. We aimed to investigate utilization patterns and temporal trends for such acne medications in the US ambulatory care.

METHODS

Pediatric (≤18 years old) and adult (>18 years old) data from the 2012 to 2016 (inclusive) cycles of the US National Ambulatory Medical Care Survey were extracted. Utilization patterns of six non-first-line topical acne medications (ie, azelaic acid, salicylic acid, glycolic acid, sulfur, resorcinol, and zinc) were compared and followed over time.

RESULTS

Data from 218 410 US office-based sampled visits during 2012-2016 were included in the analysis. Across all acne visits (n = 1542), salicylic acid (1.58%), azelaic acid (1.22%), and glycolic acid (0.52%) were the most frequently used agents, while zinc and resorcinol were not used. Sulfur (0.52%) and salicylic acid (0.33%) were the only medications used in preadolescents, and none of these medications were used in the neonatal or infantile group. Temporal trends for using at least one of these medications were insignificant among both pediatric and adult age groups (P = .825 and .136, respectively).

CONCLUSIONS

Salicylic acid and azelaic acid are the most frequently used of the studied second-line medications to treat acne, although the use of these and the other non-first-line topical medications overall is uncommon, especially among younger groups of US pediatric patients.

Percutaneous transluminal renal angioplasty attenuates poststenotic kidney mitochondrial damage in pigs with renal artery stenosis and metabolic syndrome

Percutaneous transluminal renal angioplasty (PTRA) has been used to treat renovascular disease (RVD), a chronic condition characterized by renal ischemia and metabolic abnormalities. Mitochondrial injury has been implicated as a central pathogenic mechanism in RVD, but whether it can be reversed by PTRA remains uncertain. We hypothesized that PTRA attenuates mitochondrial damage, renal injury, and dysfunction in pigs with coexisting renal artery stenosis (RAS) and metabolic syndrome (MetS). Four groups of pigs (n = 6 each) were studied after 16 weeks of diet-induced MetS and RAS (MetS + RAS), MetS + RAS treated 4 weeks earlier with PTRA, and Lean and MetS Sham controls. Single-kidney renal blood flow (RBF) and glomerular filtration rate (GFR) were assessed in vivo with multidetector computed tomography, and renal tubular mitochondrial structure and function and renal injury ex vivo. PTRA successfully restored renal artery patency, but mean arterial pressure remained unchanged. Stenotic kidney RBF and GFR, which fell in MetS + RAS compared to MetS, rose after PTRA. PTRA attenuated MetS + RAS-induced mitochondrial structural abnormalities in tubular cells and peritubular capillary endothelial cells, decreased mitochondrial H2 02 production, and increased renal cytochrome-c oxidase-IV activity and ATP production. PTRA also improved cortical microvascular and peritubular capillary density and ameliorated tubular injury and tubulointerstitial fibrosis in the poststenotic kidney. Importantly, renal mitochondrial damage correlated with poststenotic injury and dysfunction. Renal revascularization attenuated mitochondrial injury and improved renal hemodynamics and function in swine poststenotic kidneys. This study suggests a novel mechanism by which PTRA might be relatively effective in ameliorating mitochondrial damage and improving renal function in coexisting MetS and RAS.

Hypoxic preconditioning induces epigenetic changes and modifies swine mesenchymal stem cell angiogenesis and senescence in experimental atherosclerotic renal artery stenosis

Background

Atherosclerotic renal artery stenosis (ARAS) is a risk factor for ischemic and hypertensive kidney disease (HKD) for which autologous mesenchymal stem cell (MSC) appears to be a promising therapy. However, MSCs from ARAS patients exhibit impaired function, senescence, and DNA damage, possibly due to epigenetic mechanisms. Hypoxia preconditioning (HPC) exerts beneficial effects on cellular proliferation, differentiation, and gene and protein expression. We hypothesized that HPC could influence MSC function and senescence in ARAS by epigenetic mechanisms and modulating gene expression of chromatin-modifying enzymes.

Methods

Adipose-derived MSC harvested from healthy control (N = 8) and ARAS (N = 8) pigs were cultured under normoxia (20%O₂) or hypoxia (1%O₂) conditions. MSC function was assessed by migration, proliferation, and cytokine release in conditioned media. MSC senescence was evaluated by SA-β-gal activity. Specific pro-angiogenic and senescence genes were assessed by reverse transcription polymerase chain reaction (RT-PCR). Dot blotting was used to measure global genome 5-hydroxymethylcytosine (5hmC) levels on DNA and Western blotting of modified histone 3 (H3) proteins to quantify tri-methylated lysine-4 (H3K4me3), lysine-9 (H3K9me3), and lysine-27 (H3K27me3) residues.

Results

Specific pro-angiogenic genes in ARAS assessed by RT-PCR were lower at baseline but increased under HPC, while pro-senescence genes were higher in ARAS at baseline as compared healthy MSCs. ARAS MSCs under basal conditions, displayed higher H3K4me3, H3K27me3, and 5hmC levels compared to healthy MSCs. During HPC, global 5hmC levels were decreased while no appreciable changes occurred in histone H3 tri-methylation. ARAS MSCs cultured under HPC had higher migratory and proliferative capacity as well as increased vascular endothelial growth factor and epidermal growth factor expression compared to normoxia, and SA-β-gal activity decreased in both animal groups.

Conclusions

These data demonstrate that swine ARAS MSCs have decreased angiogenesis and increased senescence compared to healthy MSCs and that HPC mitigates MSC dysfunction, senescence, and DNA hydroxymethylation in ARAS MSC. Thus, HPC for MSCs may be considered for their optimization to improve autologous cell therapy in patients with nephropathies.

Supplementary Information

The online version contains supplementary material available at 10.1186/s13287-021-02310-z.

Magnetization Transfer Imaging Predicts Porcine Kidney Recovery After Revascularization of Renal Artery Stenosis

MATERIALS AND METHODS

Stenotic kidney (STK) and contralateral kidney magnetization transfer ratios (MTRs; Mt/M0) were measured at 3.0-T magnetic resonance imaging, at offset frequencies of 600 and 1000 Hz, before and 1 month post-PTRA in 7 RVD pigs. Stenotic kidney MTR was correlated to renal perfusion, renal blood flow (RBF), and glomerular filtration rate (GFR), determined using multidetector computed tomography and with ex vivo renal fibrosis (trichrome staining). Untreated RVD (n = 6) and normal pigs (n = 7) served as controls.

RESULTS

Renovascular disease induced hypertension and renal dysfunction. Blood pressure and renal perfusion were unchanged post-PTRA, but GFR and RBF increased. Baseline cortical STK-MTR predicted post-PTRA renal perfusion and RBF, and MTR changes associated inversely with changes in perfusion and normalized GFR. Stenotic kidney MTR at 600 Hz showed closer association with renal parameters, but both frequencies predicted post-PTRA cortical fibrosis.

CONCLUSIONS

Renal STK-MTR, particularly at 600 Hz offset, is sensitive to hemodynamic changes after PTRA in swine RVD and capable of noninvasively predicting post-PTRA kidney perfusion, RBF, and fibrosis. Therefore, STK-MTR may be a valuable tool to predict renal hemodynamic and functional recovery, as well as residual kidney fibrosis after revascularization in RVD.

Global epigenetic alterations of mesenchymal stem cells in obesity: the role of vitamin C reprogramming

Obesity promotes dysfunction and impairs the reparative capacity of mesenchymal stem/stromal cells (MSCs), and alters their transcription, protein content, and paracrine function. Whether these adverse effects are mediated by chromatin-modifying epigenetic changes remains unclear. We tested the hypothesis that obesity imposes global DNA hydroxymethylation and histone tri-methylation alterations in obese swine abdominal adipose tissue-derived MSCs compared to lean pig MSCs. MSCs from female lean (n = 7) and high-fat-diet fed obese (n = 7) domestic pigs were assessed using global epigenetic assays, before and after in-vitro co-incubation with the epigenetic modulator vitamin-C (VIT-C) (50 μg/ml). Dot blotting was used to measure across the whole genome 5-hydroxyemthycytosine (5hmC) residues, and Western blotting to quantify in genomic histone-3 protein tri-methylated lysine-4 (H3K4me3), lysine-9 (H3K9me3), and lysine-27 (H3K27me3) residues. MSC migration and proliferation were studied in-vitro. Obese MSCs displayed reduced global 5hmC and H3K4m3 levels, but comparable H3K9me3 and H3K27me3, compared to lean MSCs. Global 5hmC, H3K4me3, and HK9me3 marks correlated with MSC migration and reduced proliferation, as well as clinical and metabolic characteristics of obesity. Co-incubation of obese MSCs with VIT-C enhanced 5hmC marks, and reduced their global levels of H3K9me3 and H3K27me3. Contrarily, VIT-C did not affect 5hmC, and decreased H3K4me3 in lean MSCs. Obesity induces global genomic epigenetic alterations in swine MSCs, involving primarily genomic transcriptional repression, which are associated with MSC function and clinical features of obesity. Some of these alterations might be reversible using the epigenetic modulator VIT-C, suggesting epigenetic modifications as therapeutic targets in obesity.

Mapping geographical inequalities in access to drinking water and sanitation facilities in low-income and middle-income countries, 2000-17

BACKGROUND

Universal access to safe drinking water and sanitation facilities is an essential human right, recognised in the Sustainable Development Goals as crucial for preventing disease and improving human wellbeing. Comprehensive, high-resolution estimates are important to inform progress towards achieving this goal. We aimed to produce high-resolution geospatial estimates of access to drinking water and sanitation facilities.

METHODS

We used a Bayesian geostatistical model and data from 600 sources across more than 88 low-income and middle-income countries (LMICs) to estimate access to drinking water and sanitation facilities on continuous continent-wide surfaces from 2000 to 2017, and aggregated results to policy-relevant administrative units. We estimated mutually exclusive and collectively exhaustive subcategories of facilities for drinking water (piped water on or off premises, other improved facilities, unimproved, and surface water) and sanitation facilities (septic or sewer sanitation, other improved, unimproved, and open defecation) with use of ordinal regression. We also estimated the number of diarrhoeal deaths in children younger than 5 years attributed to unsafe facilities and estimated deaths that were averted by increased access to safe facilities in 2017, and analysed geographical inequality in access within LMICs.

FINDINGS

Across LMICs, access to both piped water and improved water overall increased between 2000 and 2017, with progress varying spatially. For piped water, the safest water facility type, access increased from 40·0% (95% uncertainty interval [UI] 39·4-40·7) to 50·3% (50·0-50·5), but was lowest in sub-Saharan Africa, where access to piped water was mostly concentrated in urban centres. Access to both sewer or septic sanitation and improved sanitation overall also increased across all LMICs during the study period. For sewer or septic sanitation, access was 46·3% (95% UI 46·1-46·5) in 2017, compared with 28·7% (28·5-29·0) in 2000. Although some units improved access to the safest drinking water or sanitation facilities since 2000, a large absolute number of people continued to not have access in several units with high access to such facilities (>80%) in 2017. More than 253 000 people did not have access to sewer or septic sanitation facilities in the city of Harare, Zimbabwe, despite 88·6% (95% UI 87·2-89·7) access overall. Many units were able to transition from the least safe facilities in 2000 to safe facilities by 2017; for units in which populations primarily practised open defecation in 2000, 686 (95% UI 664-711) of the 1830 (1797-1863) units transitioned to the use of improved sanitation. Geographical disparities in access to improved water across units decreased in 76·1% (95% UI 71·6-80·7) of countries from 2000 to 2017, and in 53·9% (50·6-59·6) of countries for access to improved sanitation, but remained evident subnationally in most countries in 2017.

INTERPRETATION

Our estimates, combined with geospatial trends in diarrhoeal burden, identify where efforts to increase access to safe drinking water and sanitation facilities are most needed. By highlighting areas with successful approaches or in need of targeted interventions, our estimates can enable precision public health to effectively progress towards universal access to safe water and sanitation.

FUNDING

Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation.

Peristenotic Collateral Circulation in Atherosclerotic Renovascular Disease: Association With Kidney Function and Response to Treatment

The significance of peristenotic collateral circulation (PCC) development around a stenotic renal artery is unknown. We tested the hypothesis that PCC is linked to loss of kidney function and recovery potential in patients with atherosclerotic renovascular disease (ARVD). Thirty-four patients with ARVD were assigned to medical-therapy with or without revascularization based on clinical indications. The PCC was visualized using multidetector computed tomography and defined relative to segmental arteries in patients with essential hypertension. PCC number before and 3 months after treatment was correlated with various renal parameters. Thirty-four stenotic kidneys from 30 patients were analyzed. PCC number correlated inversely with kidney volume. ARVD-stenotic kidneys with baseline PCC (collateral ARVD [C-ARVD], n=13) associated with elevated 24-hour urine protein and stenotic kidney vein level of tumor necrosis factor-α, lower single-kidney volume and blood flow, and greater hypoxia than in stenotic kidneys with no PCC (no collateral ARVD [NC-ARVD], n=17). Revascularization (but not medical-therapy alone) improved stenotic kidney function and reduced inflammation in both NC-ARVD and C-ARVD. In C-ARVD, revascularization also increased stenotic kidney volume, blood flow, and oxygenation to levels comparable to NC-ARVD, and induced PCC regression. However, revascularization improved systolic blood pressure, plasma renin activity, and filtration fraction only in NC-ARVD. Therefore, patients with C-ARVD have greater kidney dysfunction, atrophy, hypoxia, and inflammation compared with patients with NC-ARVD, suggesting that PCC does not effectively protect the stenotic kidney in ARVD. Renal artery revascularization improved in C-ARVD stenotic kidney function, but not hypertension or renin-angiotensin system activation. These observations may help direct management of patients with ARVD.

Mapping geographical inequalities in childhood diarrhoeal morbidity and mortality in low-income and middle-income countries, 2000-17: analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2017

BACKGROUND

Across low-income and middle-income countries (LMICs), one in ten deaths in children younger than 5 years is attributable to diarrhoea. The substantial between-country variation in both diarrhoea incidence and mortality is attributable to interventions that protect children, prevent infection, and treat disease. Identifying subnational regions with the highest burden and mapping associated risk factors can aid in reducing preventable childhood diarrhoea.

METHODS

We used Bayesian model-based geostatistics and a geolocated dataset comprising 15 072 746 children younger than 5 years from 466 surveys in 94 LMICs, in combination with findings of the Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study (GBD) 2017, to estimate posterior distributions of diarrhoea prevalence, incidence, and mortality from 2000 to 2017. From these data, we estimated the burden of diarrhoea at varying subnational levels (termed units) by spatially aggregating draws, and we investigated the drivers of subnational patterns by creating aggregated risk factor estimates.

FINDINGS

The greatest declines in diarrhoeal mortality were seen in south and southeast Asia and South America, where 54·0% (95% uncertainty interval [UI] 38·1-65·8), 17·4% (7·7-28·4), and 59·5% (34·2-86·9) of units, respectively, recorded decreases in deaths from diarrhoea greater than 10%. Although children in much of Africa remain at high risk of death due to diarrhoea, regions with the most deaths were outside Africa, with the highest mortality units located in Pakistan. Indonesia showed the greatest within-country geographical inequality; some regions had mortality rates nearly four times the average country rate. Reductions in mortality were correlated to improvements in water, sanitation, and hygiene (WASH) or reductions in child growth failure (CGF). Similarly, most high-risk areas had poor WASH, high CGF, or low oral rehydration therapy coverage.

INTERPRETATION

By co-analysing geospatial trends in diarrhoeal burden and its key risk factors, we could assess candidate drivers of subnational death reduction. Further, by doing a counterfactual analysis of the remaining disease burden using key risk factors, we identified potential intervention strategies for vulnerable populations. In view of the demands for limited resources in LMICs, accurately quantifying the burden of diarrhoea and its drivers is important for precision public health.

FUNDING

Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation.

Determinants of glycemic control: Phase 2 analysis from nationwide diabetes report of National Program for Prevention and Control of Diabetes (NPPCD-2018)

BACKGROUND

Diabetes is one of the leading causes of morbidity and mortality worldwide, especially among middle and low income nations. Many diabetic complications and comorbidities are attributable to poor glycemic control. The aim of this study was to update and extend the national diabetes reports on the status of comorbidities, diabetes care and complications in Iran. Moreover, we investigated the risk factors of poor glycemic control in the Iranian population.

METHODS

National database of 99,651 patients with diabetes who attended university-affiliated clinics between April 1, 2017 and February 30, 2018 was used to carry out a cross-sectional study. Stepwise backward selection logistic regression model was used to examine the associated factors of glycemic control.

RESULTS

In this study 73.0% and 56.5% of the enrolled population with diabetes, had hypertension and hyperlipidemia, respectively. The prevalence of patients who received education for nutrition therapy or diabetes self-management was 16.3% and 23.3% respectively. Poor glycemic control was associated with male gender (OR=1.06, p=0.001), obesity (OR=1.03, p=0.05), duration of diabetes (OR=1.018, p<0.001), smoking (OR=1.08, p=0.041), hypertension (OR=1.53, p<0.001), hyperlipidemia (OR=1.15, p<0.001), insulin therapy (OR=1.26, p<0.001) and combination of insulin and oral anti-diabetic agents compared to oral anti-diabetic agents alone (OR=2.36, p<0.001).

CONCLUSION

We demonstrated that the prevalence of diabetes comorbidities is high in Iranian population and that a great proportion of Iranian patients with diabetes had not reached the goal of glycemic control. Our findings provide a starting point from which to investigate the obstacles that prevent patients with diabetes from reaching metabolic targets.

Global, Regional, and National Burden of Calcific Aortic Valve and Degenerative Mitral Valve Diseases, 1990-2017

BACKGROUND

Nonrheumatic valvular diseases are common; however, no studies have estimated their global or national burden. As part of the Global Burden of Disease Study 2017, mortality, prevalence, and disability-adjusted life-years (DALYs) for calcific aortic valve disease (CAVD), degenerative mitral valve disease, and other nonrheumatic valvular diseases were estimated for 195 countries and territories from 1990 to 2017.

METHODS

Vital registration data, epidemiologic survey data, and administrative hospital data were used to estimate disease burden using the Global Burden of Disease Study modeling framework, which ensures comparability across locations. Geospatial statistical methods were used to estimate disease for all countries, because data on nonrheumatic valvular diseases are extremely limited for some regions of the world, such as Sub-Saharan Africa and South Asia. Results accounted for estimated level of disease severity as well as the estimated availability of valve repair or replacement procedures. DALYs and other measures of health-related burden were generated for both sexes and each 5-year age group, location, and year from 1990 to 2017.

RESULTS

Globally, CAVD and degenerative mitral valve disease caused 102 700 (95% uncertainty interval [UI], 82 700-107 900) and 35 700 (95% UI, 30 500-42 500) deaths, and 12.6 million (95% UI, 11.4 million-13.8 million) and 18.1 million (95% UI, 17.6 million-18.6 million) prevalent cases existed in 2017, respectively. A total of 2.5 million (95% UI, 2.3 million-2.8 million) DALYs were estimated as caused by nonrheumatic valvular diseases globally, representing 0.10% (95% UI, 0.09%-0.11%) of total lost health from all diseases in 2017. The number of DALYs increased for CAVD and degenerative mitral valve disease between 1990 and 2017 by 101% (95% UI, 79%-117%) and 35% (95% UI, 23%-47%), respectively. There is significant geographic variation in the prevalence, mortality rate, and overall burden of these diseases, with highest age-standardized DALY rates of CAVD estimated for high-income countries.

CONCLUSIONS

These global and national estimates demonstrate that CAVD and degenerative mitral valve disease are important causes of disease burden among older adults. Efforts to clarify modifiable risk factors and improve access to valve interventions are necessary if progress is to be made toward reducing, and eventually eliminating, the burden of these highly treatable diseases.

Human Obesity Induces Dysfunction and Early Senescence in Adipose Tissue-Derived Mesenchymal Stromal/Stem Cells

BACKGROUND

Chronic inflammatory conditions like obesity may adversely impact the biological functions underlying the regenerative potential of mesenchymal stromal/stem cells (MSC). Obesity can impair MSC function by inducing cellular senescence, a growth-arrest program that transitions cells to a pro-inflammatory state. However, the effect of obesity on adipose tissue-derived MSC in human subjects remains unclear. We tested the hypothesis that obesity induces senescence and dysfunction in human MSC.

METHODS

MSC were harvested from abdominal subcutaneous fat collected from obese and age-matched non-obese subjects (n = 40) during bariatric or kidney donation surgeries, respectively. MSC were characterized, their migration and proliferation assessed, and cellular senescence evaluated by gene expression of cell-cycle arrest and senescence-associated secretory phenotype markers. In vitro studies tested MSC effect on injured human umbilical vein endothelial cells (HUVEC) function.

RESULTS

Mean age was 59 ± 8 years, 66% were females. Obese subjects had higher body-mass index (BMI) than non-obese. MSC from obese subjects exhibited lower proliferative capacities than non-obese-MSC, suggesting decreased function, whereas their migration remained unchanged. Senescent cell burden and phenotype, manifested as p16, p53, IL-6, and MCP-1 gene expression, were significantly upregulated in obese subjects' MSC. BMI correlated directly with expression of p16, p21, and IL-6. Furthermore, co-incubation with non-obese, but not with obese-MSC, restored VEGF expression and tube formation that were blunted in injured HUVEC.

CONCLUSION

Human obesity triggers an early senescence program in adipose tissue-derived MSC. Thus, obesity-induced cellular injury may alter efficacy of this endogenous repair system and hamper the feasibility of autologous transplantation in obese individuals.

The global, regional, and national burden of cirrhosis by cause in 195 countries and territories, 1990-2017: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2017

BACKGROUND

Cirrhosis and other chronic liver diseases (collectively referred to as cirrhosis in this paper) are a major cause of morbidity and mortality globally, although the burden and underlying causes differ across locations and demographic groups. We report on results from the Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study (GBD) 2017 on the burden of cirrhosis and its trends since 1990, by cause, sex, and age, for 195 countries and territories.

METHODS

We used data from vital registrations, vital registration samples, and verbal autopsies to estimate mortality. We modelled prevalence of total, compensated, and decompensated cirrhosis on the basis of hospital and claims data. Disability-adjusted life-years (DALYs) were calculated as the sum of years of life lost due to premature death and years lived with disability. Estimates are presented as numbers and age-standardised or age-specific rates per 100 000 population, with 95% uncertainty intervals (UIs). All estimates are presented for five causes of cirrhosis: hepatitis B, hepatitis C, alcohol-related liver disease, non-alcoholic steatohepatitis (NASH), and other causes. We compared mortality, prevalence, and DALY estimates with those expected according to the Socio-demographic Index (SDI) as a proxy for the development status of regions and countries.

FINDINGS

In 2017, cirrhosis caused more than 1·32 million (95% UI 1·27-1·45) deaths (440 000 [416 000-518 000; 33·3%] in females and 883 000 [838 000-967 000; 66·7%] in males) globally, compared with less than 899 000 (829 000-948 000) deaths in 1990. Deaths due to cirrhosis constituted 2·4% (2·3-2·6) of total deaths globally in 2017 compared with 1·9% (1·8-2·0) in 1990. Despite an increase in the number of deaths, the age-standardised death rate decreased from 21·0 (19·2-22·3) per 100 000 population in 1990 to 16·5 (15·8-18·1) per 100 000 population in 2017. Sub-Saharan Africa had the highest age-standardised death rate among GBD super-regions for all years of the study period (32·2 [25·8-38·6] deaths per 100 000 population in 2017), and the high-income super-region had the lowest (10·1 [9·8-10·5] deaths per 100 000 population in 2017). The age-standardised death rate decreased or remained constant from 1990 to 2017 in all GBD regions except eastern Europe and central Asia, where the age-standardised death rate increased, primarily due to increases in alcohol-related liver disease prevalence. At the national level, the age-standardised death rate of cirrhosis was lowest in Singapore in 2017 (3·7 [3·3-4·0] per 100 000 in 2017) and highest in Egypt in all years since 1990 (103·3 [64·4-133·4] per 100 000 in 2017). There were 10·6 million (10·3-10·9) prevalent cases of decompensated cirrhosis and 112 million (107-119) prevalent cases of compensated cirrhosis globally in 2017. There was a significant increase in age-standardised prevalence rate of decompensated cirrhosis between 1990 and 2017. Cirrhosis caused by NASH had a steady age-standardised death rate throughout the study period, whereas the other four causes showed declines in age-standardised death rate. The age-standardised prevalence of compensated and decompensated cirrhosis due to NASH increased more than for any other cause of cirrhosis (by 33·2% for compensated cirrhosis and 54·8% for decompensated cirrhosis) over the study period. From 1990 to 2017, the number of prevalent cases more than doubled for compensated cirrhosis due to NASH and more than tripled for decompensated cirrhosis due to NASH. In 2017, age-standardised death and DALY rates were lower among countries and territories with higher SDI.

INTERPRETATION

Cirrhosis imposes a substantial health burden on many countries and this burden has increased at the global level since 1990, partly due to population growth and ageing. Although the age-standardised death and DALY rates of cirrhosis decreased from 1990 to 2017, numbers of deaths and DALYs and the proportion of all global deaths due to cirrhosis increased. Despite the availability of effective interventions for the prevention and treatment of hepatitis B and C, they were still the main causes of cirrhosis burden worldwide, particularly in low-income countries. The impact of hepatitis B and C is expected to be attenuated and overtaken by that of NASH in the near future. Cost-effective interventions are required to continue the prevention and treatment of viral hepatitis, and to achieve early diagnosis and prevention of cirrhosis due to alcohol-related liver disease and NASH.

FUNDING

Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation.

Global, regional, and national burden of chronic kidney disease, 1990-2017: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2017

BACKGROUND

Health system planning requires careful assessment of chronic kidney disease (CKD) epidemiology, but data for morbidity and mortality of this disease are scarce or non-existent in many countries. We estimated the global, regional, and national burden of CKD, as well as the burden of cardiovascular disease and gout attributable to impaired kidney function, for the Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study 2017. We use the term CKD to refer to the morbidity and mortality that can be directly attributed to all stages of CKD, and we use the term impaired kidney function to refer to the additional risk of CKD from cardiovascular disease and gout.

METHODS

The main data sources we used were published literature, vital registration systems, end-stage kidney disease registries, and household surveys. Estimates of CKD burden were produced using a Cause of Death Ensemble model and a Bayesian meta-regression analytical tool, and included incidence, prevalence, years lived with disability, mortality, years of life lost, and disability-adjusted life-years (DALYs). A comparative risk assessment approach was used to estimate the proportion of cardiovascular diseases and gout burden attributable to impaired kidney function.

FINDINGS

Globally, in 2017, 1·2 million (95% uncertainty interval [UI] 1·2 to 1·3) people died from CKD. The global all-age mortality rate from CKD increased 41·5% (95% UI 35·2 to 46·5) between 1990 and 2017, although there was no significant change in the age-standardised mortality rate (2·8%, -1·5 to 6·3). In 2017, 697·5 million (95% UI 649·2 to 752·0) cases of all-stage CKD were recorded, for a global prevalence of 9·1% (8·5 to 9·8). The global all-age prevalence of CKD increased 29·3% (95% UI 26·4 to 32·6) since 1990, whereas the age-standardised prevalence remained stable (1·2%, -1·1 to 3·5). CKD resulted in 35·8 million (95% UI 33·7 to 38·0) DALYs in 2017, with diabetic nephropathy accounting for almost a third of DALYs. Most of the burden of CKD was concentrated in the three lowest quintiles of Socio-demographic Index (SDI). In several regions, particularly Oceania, sub-Saharan Africa, and Latin America, the burden of CKD was much higher than expected for the level of development, whereas the disease burden in western, eastern, and central sub-Saharan Africa, east Asia, south Asia, central and eastern Europe, Australasia, and western Europe was lower than expected. 1·4 million (95% UI 1·2 to 1·6) cardiovascular disease-related deaths and 25·3 million (22·2 to 28·9) cardiovascular disease DALYs were attributable to impaired kidney function.

INTERPRETATION

Kidney disease has a major effect on global health, both as a direct cause of global morbidity and mortality and as an important risk factor for cardiovascular disease. CKD is largely preventable and treatable and deserves greater attention in global health policy decision making, particularly in locations with low and middle SDI.

FUNDING

Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation.

Global, Regional, and National Cancer Incidence, Mortality, Years of Life Lost, Years Lived With Disability, and Disability-Adjusted Life-Years for 29 Cancer Groups, 1990 to 2017: A Systematic Analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study

Importance

Cancer and other noncommunicable diseases (NCDs) are now widely recognized as a threat to global development. The latest United Nations high-level meeting on NCDs reaffirmed this observation and also highlighted the slow progress in meeting the 2011 Political Declaration on the Prevention and Control of Noncommunicable Diseases and the third Sustainable Development Goal. Lack of situational analyses, priority setting, and budgeting have been identified as major obstacles in achieving these goals. All of these have in common that they require information on the local cancer epidemiology. The Global Burden of Disease (GBD) study is uniquely poised to provide these crucial data.

Objective

To describe cancer burden for 29 cancer groups in 195 countries from 1990 through 2017 to provide data needed for cancer control planning.

Evidence Review

We used the GBD study estimation methods to describe cancer incidence, mortality, years lived with disability, years of life lost, and disability-adjusted life-years (DALYs). Results are presented at the national level as well as by Socio-demographic Index (SDI), a composite indicator of income, educational attainment, and total fertility rate. We also analyzed the influence of the epidemiological vs the demographic transition on cancer incidence.

Findings

In 2017, there were 24.5 million incident cancer cases worldwide (16.8 million without nonmelanoma skin cancer [NMSC]) and 9.6 million cancer deaths. The majority of cancer DALYs came from years of life lost (97%), and only 3% came from years lived with disability. The odds of developing cancer were the lowest in the low SDI quintile (1 in 7) and the highest in the high SDI quintile (1 in 2) for both sexes. In 2017, the most common incident cancers in men were NMSC (4.3 million incident cases); tracheal, bronchus, and lung (TBL) cancer (1.5 million incident cases); and prostate cancer (1.3 million incident cases). The most common causes of cancer deaths and DALYs for men were TBL cancer (1.3 million deaths and 28.4 million DALYs), liver cancer (572 000 deaths and 15.2 million DALYs), and stomach cancer (542 000 deaths and 12.2 million DALYs). For women in 2017, the most common incident cancers were NMSC (3.3 million incident cases), breast cancer (1.9 million incident cases), and colorectal cancer (819 000 incident cases). The leading causes of cancer deaths and DALYs for women were breast cancer (601 000 deaths and 17.4 million DALYs), TBL cancer (596 000 deaths and 12.6 million DALYs), and colorectal cancer (414 000 deaths and 8.3 million DALYs).

Conclusions and Relevance

The national epidemiological profiles of cancer burden in the GBD study show large heterogeneities, which are a reflection of different exposures to risk factors, economic settings, lifestyles, and access to care and screening. The GBD study can be used by policy makers and other stakeholders to develop and improve national and local cancer control in order to achieve the global targets and improve equity in cancer care.

Association of non-alcoholic fatty liver disease with microvascular complications of type 2 diabetes

INTRODUCTION

Non-alcoholic fatty liver disease (NAFLD) affects risks of type 2 diabetes (T2D), diabetes-related complications, and cardiovascular disease in a complex manner. This study is designed to clarify associations of sonographically-detected NAFLD and serum liver enzymes with diabetes-related microvascular complications.

METHODS

A matched case-contorl study was designed for 440 patients with T2D and at least one of the chronic diabetes-related microvascular complications and 495 age- and gender-matched control patients with T2D.

RESULTS

Considering pre-existing and newly developed chronic microvascular complications, diabetic peripheral neuropathy was found in 347 out of 935 (37.1%) study patients, diabetic retinopathy in 141/935 (15.1%), and diabetic nephropathy in 103/935 (11.0%). Diagnosis of diabetic retinopathy and diabetic nephropathy were inversely associated with the presence of NAFLD in the crude logistic regressions (OR [95% CI] = 0.18 [0.05-0.63], p value = 0.007; OR [95% CI] = 0.17 [0.04-0.59], p value = 0.011, respectively). The subgroup of NAFLD with elevated liver enzymes had lower odds of having diabetic peripheral neuropathy in the fully adjusted model (OR [95% CI] = 0.34 [0.12-0.98], p value = 0.048).

CONCLUSION

Diagnosis of NAFLD with or without elevated serum liver enzymes was inversely correlated with certain chronic diabetes microvascular complications. Possible explanations for this counter-intuitive and unexpected finding are discussed and center on reverse-causality, wherein sicker patients may develop beneficial compensatory physiological and behavioral adaptations. Diversity of studied patients, in particular with regards to the ethnic and racial differences among the Western and Asian populations may also partly account for contrasting findings of the relationship between NAFLD and microvascular complications of diabetes.

Single Long Stents versus Overlapping Multiple Stents in the Management of Very Long Coronary Lesions: Comparisons of Procedures and Clinical Outcomes

Background: Different percutaneous coronary intervention (PCI) strategies, including the use of single long stents (SLSs) and overlapping multiple stents (OMSs), have been introduced to treat very long coronary lesions (VLCLs). The aim of this study was to compare procedural and long-term clinical outcomes between SLSs and OMSs in patients with VLCLs. Methods: In this historical cohort study, 1709 patients who underwent PCI with the new generation of drug-eluting stents (length ≥38 mm) were stratified into the SLS [PROMUS /Resolute/XIENCE (PRX), (=38 mm), n=1121 (65.59%) and BioMime, (≥40 mm), n=124 (7.26%)] and OMS [(59.43±10.80 mm), n=464 (27.2%)] groups and followed up for 440.93±361.32 days. The study endpoints comprised immediate post-PCI outcomes, major adverse cardiovascular events (MACE), the patient-oriented composite endpoint (POCE), and the device-oriented composite endpoint (DOCE) at the long-term follow-up. Results: The mean age of the patients was 59.28±10.60 years, and 69.6% of them were male. Flow grade 3 (P=0.296) and residual stenosis (P=0.533) were statistically similar between all the groups. A lower level of post-PCI troponin was observed in the BioMime group [14.52 (IQR25%-75%:10.44–22.42) ng/L; P=0.031] than in the PRX and OMS groups [18.63 (IQR25%-75%:10.51–34.02) ng/L and 18.96 (IQR25%-75%:11.17–35.34) ng/L; respectively]. Similarly, the PRX and BioMime groups received lower amounts of the contrast agent [206.29±49.15 mL and 208.06±55.23 mL; respectively] than did the OMS group [265.50±74.69 mL; P<0.001]. There were no statistically significant differences in the incidence of MACE [81 (7.2%), 7 (5.6%), and 28 (6.0%); P=0.603], the POCE [141 (12.6%), 13 (10.5%), and 54 (11.6%); P=0.731], and the DOCE [51 (4.5%), 4 (3.2%), and 21 (4.5%); P=0.791] between the PRX, BioMime, and OMS groups, respectively. Conclusion: In the treatment of VLCLs, the SLS and OMSs appear to have similar clinical outcomes. BioMime ultra-long stents may have comparable results to PRX coronary stents.

Single Long Stents versus Overlapping Multiple Stents in the Management of Very Long Coronary Lesions: Comparisons of Procedures and Clinical Outcomes

Background: Different percutaneous coronary intervention (PCI) strategies, including the use of single long stents (SLSs) and overlapping multiple stents (OMSs), have been introduced to treat very long coronary lesions (VLCLs). The aim of this study was to compare procedural and long-term clinical outcomes between SLSs and OMSs in patients with VLCLs. Methods: In this historical cohort study, 1709 patients who underwent PCI with the new generation of drug-eluting stents (length ≥38 mm) were stratified into the SLS [PROMUS /Resolute/XIENCE (PRX), (=38 mm), n=1121 (65.59%) and BioMime, (≥40 mm), n=124 (7.26%)] and OMS [(59.43±10.80 mm), n=464 (27.2%)] groups and followed up for 440.93±361.32 days. The study endpoints comprised immediate post-PCI outcomes, major adverse cardiovascular events (MACE), the patient-oriented composite endpoint (POCE), and the device-oriented composite endpoint (DOCE) at the long-term follow-up. Results: The mean age of the patients was 59.28±10.60 years, and 69.6% of them were male. Flow grade 3 (P=0.296) and residual stenosis (P=0.533) were statistically similar between all the groups. A lower level of post-PCI troponin was observed in the BioMime group [14.52 (IQR_25%-75%:10.44-22.42) ng/L; P=0.031] than in the PRX and OMS groups [18.63 (IQR_25%-75%:10.51-34.02) ng/L and 18.96 (IQR_25%-75%:11.17-35.34) ng/L; respectively]. Similarly, the PRX and BioMime groups received lower amounts of the contrast agent [206.29±49.15 mL and 208.06±55.23 mL; respectively] than did the OMS group [265.50±74.69 mL; P<0.001]. There were no statistically significant differences in the incidence of MACE [81 (7.2%), 7 (5.6%), and 28 (6.0%); P=0.603], the POCE [141 (12.6%), 13 (10.5%), and 54 (11.6%); P=0.731], and the DOCE [51 (4.5%), 4 (3.2%), and 21 (4.5%); P=0.791] between the PRX, BioMime, and OMS groups, respectively. Conclusion: In the treatment of VLCLs, the SLS and OMSs appear to have similar clinical outcomes. BioMime ultra-long stents may have comparable results to PRX coronary stents.

Sitagliptin vs. pioglitazone as add-on treatments in patients with uncontrolled type 2 diabetes on the maximal dose of metformin plus sulfonylurea

AIMS

To compare the efficacy of sitagliptin versus pioglitazone as add-on drugs in patients with poorly controlled diabetes with metformin and sulfonylureas.

METHODS

This is a randomized, open-label, parallel assignment clinical trial. Patients who had inadequate glycemic control [7% (53 mmol/mol) ≤ A1C < 11% (97 mmol/mol)] despite a minimum 6-month period of active treatment with metformin 2000 mg/day plus gliclazide 240 mg/day were enrolled in the study. HbA1C, fasting blood glucose (FBG), fasting plasma lipid parameters [total cholesterol (TC0, low-density lipoprotein cholesterol (LDL-C), triglycerides (TG) and high-density lipoprotein cholesterol (HDL-C)], systolic and diastolic blood pressure (SBP, DBP), weight, waist circumference, and body mass index were measured at baseline and after 17, 34, and 52 weeks of treatment. Generalized estimating equation analysis was done to compare treatment groups for continuous efficacy parameters.

RESULTS

No significant difference in HbA1C reduction was observed between the treatment groups during the study course. (P = 0.149, adjusted P = 0.434; coefficient - 0.11 ± 0.08). The FBG (P = 0.032; coefficient 7.44 ± 3.48), HDL-C (P = 0.001; coefficient - 2.69 ± 0.83), TG (P = 0.027; coefficient 12.63 ± 5.71) and SBP (P < 0.001; coefficient 5.43 ± 1.26) changes from baseline, and weight gain were greater in the pioglitazone group. The mean changes in LDL-C and TC from baseline to week 52 were greater in the sitagliptin group (P = 0.034; coefficient - 7.40 ± 3.50, P = 0.013; coefficient - 7.16 ± 2.88, respectively).

CONCLUSION

Sitagliptin and pioglitazone were equally effective in improvement of HbA1C. There were some differences in terms of lipid indices, weight gain, and SBP. The current study confirmed that both sitagliptin and pioglitazone are effective treatment options and the decision should be made for each individual based on the baseline characteristics.

Discrimination between Obstructive Coronary Artery Disease and Cardiac Syndrome X in Women with Typical Angina and Positive Exercise Test; Utility of Cardiovascular Risk Calculators

Introduction: Nearly 40% of women with typical angina and a positive exercise tolerance test (ETT) have normal or near normal coronary angiography (CAG) labeled as cardiac syndrome X (CSX). Objective: We performed this study to evaluate the power of common cardiovascular risk calculators to distinguish patients with CSX from those with coronary artery disease (CAD). Methods: 559 women participated in the study. Three risk scores, including (1) newly pooled cohort equation of American College of Cardiology/American Heart Association (ACC/AHA) to predict 10 years risk of first atherosclerotic cardiovascular hard event (ASCVD), (2) Framingham risk score (FRS) for the prediction of 10 years coronary heart disease, and (3) the SCORE tool to estimate 10-year risk of cardiovascular mortality (SCORE), were applied. Results: CAD was diagnosed in 51.5% of the patients. 11.6% of the population had ASCVD < 2.5%, and only 13.8% of these patients had CAD on their CAG. By choosing FRS, 14.4% of patients had FRS < 7.5%, and only 11.3% of these patients had recorded CAD on CAG, while the rest of the patients were diagnosed as CSX. Using the SCORE model, 13.8% of patients had the least value (<0.5%) in whom the prevalence of CAD was 19.9%. The area under receiver operating characteristic curve (AUROC) to discriminate CSX from CAD was calculated for each scoring system, being 0.750 for ASCVD, 0.745 for FRS, and 0.728 for SCORE (p value for all AUROCs < 0.001). The Hosmer⁻Lemeshow chi squares (df, p value) for calibration were 8.787 (8, 0.361), 11.125 (8, 0.195), and 10.618 (8, 0.224) for ASCVD, FRS, and SCORE, respectively. Conclusions: Patients who have ASCVD < 2.5% or FRS < 7.5% may be appropriate cases for noninvasive imaging (Such as coronary CT angiography). CAG is indicated for patients with ASCVD ≥ 7.5% and FRS ≥ 15%, whereas the patients with intermediate risk need comprehensive patient⁻physician shared decision-making.

Associations of Serum S100B and S100P With the Presence and Classification of Diabetic Peripheral Neuropathy in Adults With Type 2 Diabetes: A Case-Cohort Study

OBJECTIVES

Novel biomarkers of diabetic peripheral neuropathy provide potentially useful information for early identification and treatment of diabetic neuropathy, ultimately serving to reduce the burden of disease. This study was designed to investigate the potential associations of serum S100B and S100P (calcium-modulated proteins) with the presence and classification of diabetic peripheral neuropathy in adults with type 2 diabetes.

METHODS

In a case-cohort setting, the data of 44 participants diagnosed with diabetic peripheral neuropathy, 44 control participants with type 2 diabetes but free of peripheral neuropathy and 87 healthy control individuals were collected and analyzed.

RESULTS

Serum S100P concentrations were elevated in participants with diabetic peripheral neuropathy compared with their controls with type 2 diabetes (median [IQR]: 2,235 pg/mL [1,497.5 to 2,680] vs. 1,200 pg/mL [975 to 1,350)], respectively; p<0.001). Conversely, serum S100B values were comparable in these 2 groups (p=0.570). Those with the typical diabetic peripheral neuropathy had significantly higher serum S100P levels compared to their counterparts with the atypical group of diabetic peripheral neuropathies (p=0.048). The independent significant association between serum S100P and diabetic peripheral neuropathy persisted into the multivariable adjusted logistic regression model (OR for S100P: 1.004 [95% CI 1.002 to 1.006]; p<0.001).

CONCLUSIONS

The present study's findings demonstrated that serum S100P is a more significant indicator of peripheral neuropathy in type 2 diabetes than is serum S100B. Prospective longitudinal studies are required to confirm the prognostic value of baseline serum S100P to predict incident peripheral neuropathy in people with diabetes.

Global, regional, and national burden of traumatic brain injury and spinal cord injury, 1990-2016: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2016

BACKGROUND

Traumatic brain injury (TBI) and spinal cord injury (SCI) are increasingly recognised as global health priorities in view of the preventability of most injuries and the complex and expensive medical care they necessitate. We aimed to measure the incidence, prevalence, and years of life lived with disability (YLDs) for TBI and SCI from all causes of injury in every country, to describe how these measures have changed between 1990 and 2016, and to estimate the proportion of TBI and SCI cases caused by different types of injury.

METHODS

We used results from the Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors (GBD) Study 2016 to measure the global, regional, and national burden of TBI and SCI by age and sex. We measured the incidence and prevalence of all causes of injury requiring medical care in inpatient and outpatient records, literature studies, and survey data. By use of clinical record data, we estimated the proportion of each cause of injury that required medical care that would result in TBI or SCI being considered as the nature of injury. We used literature studies to establish standardised mortality ratios and applied differential equations to convert incidence to prevalence of long-term disability. Finally, we applied GBD disability weights to calculate YLDs. We used a Bayesian meta-regression tool for epidemiological modelling, used cause-specific mortality rates for non-fatal estimation, and adjusted our results for disability experienced with comorbid conditions. We also analysed results on the basis of the Socio-demographic Index, a compound measure of income per capita, education, and fertility.

FINDINGS

In 2016, there were 27·08 million (95% uncertainty interval [UI] 24·30-30·30 million) new cases of TBI and 0·93 million (0·78-1·16 million) new cases of SCI, with age-standardised incidence rates of 369 (331-412) per 100 000 population for TBI and 13 (11-16) per 100 000 for SCI. In 2016, the number of prevalent cases of TBI was 55·50 million (53·40-57·62 million) and of SCI was 27·04 million (24·98-30·15 million). From 1990 to 2016, the age-standardised prevalence of TBI increased by 8·4% (95% UI 7·7 to 9·2), whereas that of SCI did not change significantly (-0·2% [-2·1 to 2·7]). Age-standardised incidence rates increased by 3·6% (1·8 to 5·5) for TBI, but did not change significantly for SCI (-3·6% [-7·4 to 4·0]). TBI caused 8·1 million (95% UI 6·0-10·4 million) YLDs and SCI caused 9·5 million (6·7-12·4 million) YLDs in 2016, corresponding to age-standardised rates of 111 (82-141) per 100 000 for TBI and 130 (90-170) per 100 000 for SCI. Falls and road injuries were the leading causes of new cases of TBI and SCI in most regions.

INTERPRETATION

TBI and SCI constitute a considerable portion of the global injury burden and are caused primarily by falls and road injuries. The increase in incidence of TBI over time might continue in view of increases in population density, population ageing, and increasing use of motor vehicles, motorcycles, and bicycles. The number of individuals living with SCI is expected to increase in view of population growth, which is concerning because of the specialised care that people with SCI can require. Our study was limited by data sparsity in some regions, and it will be important to invest greater resources in collection of data for TBI and SCI to improve the accuracy of future assessments.

FUNDING

Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation.

Global, regional, and national age-sex-specific mortality and life expectancy, 1950-2017: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2017

BACKGROUND

Assessments of age-specific mortality and life expectancy have been done by the UN Population Division, Department of Economics and Social Affairs (UNPOP), the United States Census Bureau, WHO, and as part of previous iterations of the Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study (GBD). Previous iterations of the GBD used population estimates from UNPOP, which were not derived in a way that was internally consistent with the estimates of the numbers of deaths in the GBD. The present iteration of the GBD, GBD 2017, improves on previous assessments and provides timely estimates of the mortality experience of populations globally.

METHODS

The GBD uses all available data to produce estimates of mortality rates between 1950 and 2017 for 23 age groups, both sexes, and 918 locations, including 195 countries and territories and subnational locations for 16 countries. Data used include vital registration systems, sample registration systems, household surveys (complete birth histories, summary birth histories, sibling histories), censuses (summary birth histories, household deaths), and Demographic Surveillance Sites. In total, this analysis used 8259 data sources. Estimates of the probability of death between birth and the age of 5 years and between ages 15 and 60 years are generated and then input into a model life table system to produce complete life tables for all locations and years. Fatal discontinuities and mortality due to HIV/AIDS are analysed separately and then incorporated into the estimation. We analyse the relationship between age-specific mortality and development status using the Socio-demographic Index, a composite measure based on fertility under the age of 25 years, education, and income. There are four main methodological improvements in GBD 2017 compared with GBD 2016: 622 additional data sources have been incorporated; new estimates of population, generated by the GBD study, are used; statistical methods used in different components of the analysis have been further standardised and improved; and the analysis has been extended backwards in time by two decades to start in 1950.

FINDINGS

Globally, 18·7% (95% uncertainty interval 18·4-19·0) of deaths were registered in 1950 and that proportion has been steadily increasing since, with 58·8% (58·2-59·3) of all deaths being registered in 2015. At the global level, between 1950 and 2017, life expectancy increased from 48·1 years (46·5-49·6) to 70·5 years (70·1-70·8) for men and from 52·9 years (51·7-54·0) to 75·6 years (75·3-75·9) for women. Despite this overall progress, there remains substantial variation in life expectancy at birth in 2017, which ranges from 49·1 years (46·5-51·7) for men in the Central African Republic to 87·6 years (86·9-88·1) among women in Singapore. The greatest progress across age groups was for children younger than 5 years; under-5 mortality dropped from 216·0 deaths (196·3-238·1) per 1000 livebirths in 1950 to 38·9 deaths (35·6-42·83) per 1000 livebirths in 2017, with huge reductions across countries. Nevertheless, there were still 5·4 million (5·2-5·6) deaths among children younger than 5 years in the world in 2017. Progress has been less pronounced and more variable for adults, especially for adult males, who had stagnant or increasing mortality rates in several countries. The gap between male and female life expectancy between 1950 and 2017, while relatively stable at the global level, shows distinctive patterns across super-regions and has consistently been the largest in central Europe, eastern Europe, and central Asia, and smallest in south Asia. Performance was also variable across countries and time in observed mortality rates compared with those expected on the basis of development.

INTERPRETATION

This analysis of age-sex-specific mortality shows that there are remarkably complex patterns in population mortality across countries. The findings of this study highlight global successes, such as the large decline in under-5 mortality, which reflects significant local, national, and global commitment and investment over several decades. However, they also bring attention to mortality patterns that are a cause for concern, particularly among adult men and, to a lesser extent, women, whose mortality rates have stagnated in many countries over the time period of this study, and in some cases are increasing.

FUNDING

Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation.

Global, regional, and national incidence, prevalence, and years lived with disability for 354 diseases and injuries for 195 countries and territories, 1990-2017: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2017

BACKGROUND

The Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study 2017 (GBD 2017) includes a comprehensive assessment of incidence, prevalence, and years lived with disability (YLDs) for 354 causes in 195 countries and territories from 1990 to 2017. Previous GBD studies have shown how the decline of mortality rates from 1990 to 2016 has led to an increase in life expectancy, an ageing global population, and an expansion of the non-fatal burden of disease and injury. These studies have also shown how a substantial portion of the world's population experiences non-fatal health loss with considerable heterogeneity among different causes, locations, ages, and sexes. Ongoing objectives of the GBD study include increasing the level of estimation detail, improving analytical strategies, and increasing the amount of high-quality data.

METHODS

We estimated incidence and prevalence for 354 diseases and injuries and 3484 sequelae. We used an updated and extensive body of literature studies, survey data, surveillance data, inpatient admission records, outpatient visit records, and health insurance claims, and additionally used results from cause of death models to inform estimates using a total of 68 781 data sources. Newly available clinical data from India, Iran, Japan, Jordan, Nepal, China, Brazil, Norway, and Italy were incorporated, as well as updated claims data from the USA and new claims data from Taiwan (province of China) and Singapore. We used DisMod-MR 2.1, a Bayesian meta-regression tool, as the main method of estimation, ensuring consistency between rates of incidence, prevalence, remission, and cause of death for each condition. YLDs were estimated as the product of a prevalence estimate and a disability weight for health states of each mutually exclusive sequela, adjusted for comorbidity. We updated the Socio-demographic Index (SDI), a summary development indicator of income per capita, years of schooling, and total fertility rate. Additionally, we calculated differences between male and female YLDs to identify divergent trends across sexes. GBD 2017 complies with the Guidelines for Accurate and Transparent Health Estimates Reporting.

FINDINGS

Globally, for females, the causes with the greatest age-standardised prevalence were oral disorders, headache disorders, and haemoglobinopathies and haemolytic anaemias in both 1990 and 2017. For males, the causes with the greatest age-standardised prevalence were oral disorders, headache disorders, and tuberculosis including latent tuberculosis infection in both 1990 and 2017. In terms of YLDs, low back pain, headache disorders, and dietary iron deficiency were the leading Level 3 causes of YLD counts in 1990, whereas low back pain, headache disorders, and depressive disorders were the leading causes in 2017 for both sexes combined. All-cause age-standardised YLD rates decreased by 3·9% (95% uncertainty interval [UI] 3·1-4·6) from 1990 to 2017; however, the all-age YLD rate increased by 7·2% (6·0-8·4) while the total sum of global YLDs increased from 562 million (421-723) to 853 million (642-1100). The increases for males and females were similar, with increases in all-age YLD rates of 7·9% (6·6-9·2) for males and 6·5% (5·4-7·7) for females. We found significant differences between males and females in terms of age-standardised prevalence estimates for multiple causes. The causes with the greatest relative differences between sexes in 2017 included substance use disorders (3018 cases [95% UI 2782-3252] per 100 000 in males vs s1400 [1279-1524] per 100 000 in females), transport injuries (3322 [3082-3583] vs 2336 [2154-2535]), and self-harm and interpersonal violence (3265 [2943-3630] vs 5643 [5057-6302]).

INTERPRETATION

Global all-cause age-standardised YLD rates have improved only slightly over a period spanning nearly three decades. However, the magnitude of the non-fatal disease burden has expanded globally, with increasing numbers of people who have a wide spectrum of conditions. A subset of conditions has remained globally pervasive since 1990, whereas other conditions have displayed more dynamic trends, with different ages, sexes, and geographies across the globe experiencing varying burdens and trends of health loss. This study emphasises how global improvements in premature mortality for select conditions have led to older populations with complex and potentially expensive diseases, yet also highlights global achievements in certain domains of disease and injury.

FUNDING

Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation.

Measuring progress from 1990 to 2017 and projecting attainment to 2030 of the health-related Sustainable Development Goals for 195 countries and territories: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2017

BACKGROUND

Efforts to establish the 2015 baseline and monitor early implementation of the UN Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs) highlight both great potential for and threats to improving health by 2030. To fully deliver on the SDG aim of "leaving no one behind", it is increasingly important to examine the health-related SDGs beyond national-level estimates. As part of the Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study 2017 (GBD 2017), we measured progress on 41 of 52 health-related SDG indicators and estimated the health-related SDG index for 195 countries and territories for the period 1990-2017, projected indicators to 2030, and analysed global attainment.

METHODS

We measured progress on 41 health-related SDG indicators from 1990 to 2017, an increase of four indicators since GBD 2016 (new indicators were health worker density, sexual violence by non-intimate partners, population census status, and prevalence of physical and sexual violence [reported separately]). We also improved the measurement of several previously reported indicators. We constructed national-level estimates and, for a subset of health-related SDGs, examined indicator-level differences by sex and Socio-demographic Index (SDI) quintile. We also did subnational assessments of performance for selected countries. To construct the health-related SDG index, we transformed the value for each indicator on a scale of 0-100, with 0 as the 2·5th percentile and 100 as the 97·5th percentile of 1000 draws calculated from 1990 to 2030, and took the geometric mean of the scaled indicators by target. To generate projections through 2030, we used a forecasting framework that drew estimates from the broader GBD study and used weighted averages of indicator-specific and country-specific annualised rates of change from 1990 to 2017 to inform future estimates. We assessed attainment of indicators with defined targets in two ways: first, using mean values projected for 2030, and then using the probability of attainment in 2030 calculated from 1000 draws. We also did a global attainment analysis of the feasibility of attaining SDG targets on the basis of past trends. Using 2015 global averages of indicators with defined SDG targets, we calculated the global annualised rates of change required from 2015 to 2030 to meet these targets, and then identified in what percentiles the required global annualised rates of change fell in the distribution of country-level rates of change from 1990 to 2015. We took the mean of these global percentile values across indicators and applied the past rate of change at this mean global percentile to all health-related SDG indicators, irrespective of target definition, to estimate the equivalent 2030 global average value and percentage change from 2015 to 2030 for each indicator.

FINDINGS

The global median health-related SDG index in 2017 was 59·4 (IQR 35·4-67·3), ranging from a low of 11·6 (95% uncertainty interval 9·6-14·0) to a high of 84·9 (83·1-86·7). SDG index values in countries assessed at the subnational level varied substantially, particularly in China and India, although scores in Japan and the UK were more homogeneous. Indicators also varied by SDI quintile and sex, with males having worse outcomes than females for non-communicable disease (NCD) mortality, alcohol use, and smoking, among others. Most countries were projected to have a higher health-related SDG index in 2030 than in 2017, while country-level probabilities of attainment by 2030 varied widely by indicator. Under-5 mortality, neonatal mortality, maternal mortality ratio, and malaria indicators had the most countries with at least 95% probability of target attainment. Other indicators, including NCD mortality and suicide mortality, had no countries projected to meet corresponding SDG targets on the basis of projected mean values for 2030 but showed some probability of attainment by 2030. For some indicators, including child malnutrition, several infectious diseases, and most violence measures, the annualised rates of change required to meet SDG targets far exceeded the pace of progress achieved by any country in the recent past. We found that applying the mean global annualised rate of change to indicators without defined targets would equate to about 19% and 22% reductions in global smoking and alcohol consumption, respectively; a 47% decline in adolescent birth rates; and a more than 85% increase in health worker density per 1000 population by 2030.

INTERPRETATION

The GBD study offers a unique, robust platform for monitoring the health-related SDGs across demographic and geographic dimensions. Our findings underscore the importance of increased collection and analysis of disaggregated data and highlight where more deliberate design or targeting of interventions could accelerate progress in attaining the SDGs. Current projections show that many health-related SDG indicators, NCDs, NCD-related risks, and violence-related indicators will require a concerted shift away from what might have driven past gains-curative interventions in the case of NCDs-towards multisectoral, prevention-oriented policy action and investments to achieve SDG aims. Notably, several targets, if they are to be met by 2030, demand a pace of progress that no country has achieved in the recent past. The future is fundamentally uncertain, and no model can fully predict what breakthroughs or events might alter the course of the SDGs. What is clear is that our actions-or inaction-today will ultimately dictate how close the world, collectively, can get to leaving no one behind by 2030.

FUNDING

Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation.

Global, regional, and national comparative risk assessment of 84 behavioural, environmental and occupational, and metabolic risks or clusters of risks for 195 countries and territories, 1990-2017: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2017

BACKGROUND

The Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study (GBD) 2017 comparative risk assessment (CRA) is a comprehensive approach to risk factor quantification that offers a useful tool for synthesising evidence on risks and risk-outcome associations. With each annual GBD study, we update the GBD CRA to incorporate improved methods, new risks and risk-outcome pairs, and new data on risk exposure levels and risk-outcome associations.

METHODS

We used the CRA framework developed for previous iterations of GBD to estimate levels and trends in exposure, attributable deaths, and attributable disability-adjusted life-years (DALYs), by age group, sex, year, and location for 84 behavioural, environmental and occupational, and metabolic risks or groups of risks from 1990 to 2017. This study included 476 risk-outcome pairs that met the GBD study criteria for convincing or probable evidence of causation. We extracted relative risk and exposure estimates from 46 749 randomised controlled trials, cohort studies, household surveys, census data, satellite data, and other sources. We used statistical models to pool data, adjust for bias, and incorporate covariates. Using the counterfactual scenario of theoretical minimum risk exposure level (TMREL), we estimated the portion of deaths and DALYs that could be attributed to a given risk. We explored the relationship between development and risk exposure by modelling the relationship between the Socio-demographic Index (SDI) and risk-weighted exposure prevalence and estimated expected levels of exposure and risk-attributable burden by SDI. Finally, we explored temporal changes in risk-attributable DALYs by decomposing those changes into six main component drivers of change as follows: (1) population growth; (2) changes in population age structures; (3) changes in exposure to environmental and occupational risks; (4) changes in exposure to behavioural risks; (5) changes in exposure to metabolic risks; and (6) changes due to all other factors, approximated as the risk-deleted death and DALY rates, where the risk-deleted rate is the rate that would be observed had we reduced the exposure levels to the TMREL for all risk factors included in GBD 2017.

FINDINGS

In 2017, 34·1 million (95% uncertainty interval [UI] 33·3-35·0) deaths and 1·21 billion (1·14-1·28) DALYs were attributable to GBD risk factors. Globally, 61·0% (59·6-62·4) of deaths and 48·3% (46·3-50·2) of DALYs were attributed to the GBD 2017 risk factors. When ranked by risk-attributable DALYs, high systolic blood pressure (SBP) was the leading risk factor, accounting for 10·4 million (9·39-11·5) deaths and 218 million (198-237) DALYs, followed by smoking (7·10 million [6·83-7·37] deaths and 182 million [173-193] DALYs), high fasting plasma glucose (6·53 million [5·23-8·23] deaths and 171 million [144-201] DALYs), high body-mass index (BMI; 4·72 million [2·99-6·70] deaths and 148 million [98·6-202] DALYs), and short gestation for birthweight (1·43 million [1·36-1·51] deaths and 139 million [131-147] DALYs). In total, risk-attributable DALYs declined by 4·9% (3·3-6·5) between 2007 and 2017. In the absence of demographic changes (ie, population growth and ageing), changes in risk exposure and risk-deleted DALYs would have led to a 23·5% decline in DALYs during that period. Conversely, in the absence of changes in risk exposure and risk-deleted DALYs, demographic changes would have led to an 18·6% increase in DALYs during that period. The ratios of observed risk exposure levels to exposure levels expected based on SDI (O/E ratios) increased globally for unsafe drinking water and household air pollution between 1990 and 2017. This result suggests that development is occurring more rapidly than are changes in the underlying risk structure in a population. Conversely, nearly universal declines in O/E ratios for smoking and alcohol use indicate that, for a given SDI, exposure to these risks is declining. In 2017, the leading Level 4 risk factor for age-standardised DALY rates was high SBP in four super-regions: central Europe, eastern Europe, and central Asia; north Africa and Middle East; south Asia; and southeast Asia, east Asia, and Oceania. The leading risk factor in the high-income super-region was smoking, in Latin America and Caribbean was high BMI, and in sub-Saharan Africa was unsafe sex. O/E ratios for unsafe sex in sub-Saharan Africa were notably high, and those for alcohol use in north Africa and the Middle East were notably low.

INTERPRETATION

By quantifying levels and trends in exposures to risk factors and the resulting disease burden, this assessment offers insight into where past policy and programme efforts might have been successful and highlights current priorities for public health action. Decreases in behavioural, environmental, and occupational risks have largely offset the effects of population growth and ageing, in relation to trends in absolute burden. Conversely, the combination of increasing metabolic risks and population ageing will probably continue to drive the increasing trends in non-communicable diseases at the global level, which presents both a public health challenge and opportunity. We see considerable spatiotemporal heterogeneity in levels of risk exposure and risk-attributable burden. Although levels of development underlie some of this heterogeneity, O/E ratios show risks for which countries are overperforming or underperforming relative to their level of development. As such, these ratios provide a benchmarking tool to help to focus local decision making. Our findings reinforce the importance of both risk exposure monitoring and epidemiological research to assess causal connections between risks and health outcomes, and they highlight the usefulness of the GBD study in synthesising data to draw comprehensive and robust conclusions that help to inform good policy and strategic health planning.

FUNDING

Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation.

Global, regional, and national incidence, prevalence, and years lived with disability for 354 diseases and injuries for 195 countries and territories, 1990-2017: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2017

BACKGROUND

The Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study 2017 (GBD 2017) includes a comprehensive assessment of incidence, prevalence, and years lived with disability (YLDs) for 354 causes in 195 countries and territories from 1990 to 2017. Previous GBD studies have shown how the decline of mortality rates from 1990 to 2016 has led to an increase in life expectancy, an ageing global population, and an expansion of the non-fatal burden of disease and injury. These studies have also shown how a substantial portion of the world's population experiences non-fatal health loss with considerable heterogeneity among different causes, locations, ages, and sexes. Ongoing objectives of the GBD study include increasing the level of estimation detail, improving analytical strategies, and increasing the amount of high-quality data.

METHODS

We estimated incidence and prevalence for 354 diseases and injuries and 3484 sequelae. We used an updated and extensive body of literature studies, survey data, surveillance data, inpatient admission records, outpatient visit records, and health insurance claims, and additionally used results from cause of death models to inform estimates using a total of 68 781 data sources. Newly available clinical data from India, Iran, Japan, Jordan, Nepal, China, Brazil, Norway, and Italy were incorporated, as well as updated claims data from the USA and new claims data from Taiwan (province of China) and Singapore. We used DisMod-MR 2.1, a Bayesian meta-regression tool, as the main method of estimation, ensuring consistency between rates of incidence, prevalence, remission, and cause of death for each condition. YLDs were estimated as the product of a prevalence estimate and a disability weight for health states of each mutually exclusive sequela, adjusted for comorbidity. We updated the Socio-demographic Index (SDI), a summary development indicator of income per capita, years of schooling, and total fertility rate. Additionally, we calculated differences between male and female YLDs to identify divergent trends across sexes. GBD 2017 complies with the Guidelines for Accurate and Transparent Health Estimates Reporting.

FINDINGS

Globally, for females, the causes with the greatest age-standardised prevalence were oral disorders, headache disorders, and haemoglobinopathies and haemolytic anaemias in both 1990 and 2017. For males, the causes with the greatest age-standardised prevalence were oral disorders, headache disorders, and tuberculosis including latent tuberculosis infection in both 1990 and 2017. In terms of YLDs, low back pain, headache disorders, and dietary iron deficiency were the leading Level 3 causes of YLD counts in 1990, whereas low back pain, headache disorders, and depressive disorders were the leading causes in 2017 for both sexes combined. All-cause age-standardised YLD rates decreased by 3·9% (95% uncertainty interval [UI] 3·1-4·6) from 1990 to 2017; however, the all-age YLD rate increased by 7·2% (6·0-8·4) while the total sum of global YLDs increased from 562 million (421-723) to 853 million (642-1100). The increases for males and females were similar, with increases in all-age YLD rates of 7·9% (6·6-9·2) for males and 6·5% (5·4-7·7) for females. We found significant differences between males and females in terms of age-standardised prevalence estimates for multiple causes. The causes with the greatest relative differences between sexes in 2017 included substance use disorders (3018 cases [95% UI 2782-3252] per 100 000 in males vs s1400 [1279-1524] per 100 000 in females), transport injuries (3322 [3082-3583] vs 2336 [2154-2535]), and self-harm and interpersonal violence (3265 [2943-3630] vs 5643 [5057-6302]).

INTERPRETATION

Global all-cause age-standardised YLD rates have improved only slightly over a period spanning nearly three decades. However, the magnitude of the non-fatal disease burden has expanded globally, with increasing numbers of people who have a wide spectrum of conditions. A subset of conditions has remained globally pervasive since 1990, whereas other conditions have displayed more dynamic trends, with different ages, sexes, and geographies across the globe experiencing varying burdens and trends of health loss. This study emphasises how global improvements in premature mortality for select conditions have led to older populations with complex and potentially expensive diseases, yet also highlights global achievements in certain domains of disease and injury.

FUNDING

Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation.

Population and fertility by age and sex for 195 countries and territories, 1950-2017: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2017

BACKGROUND

Population estimates underpin demographic and epidemiological research and are used to track progress on numerous international indicators of health and development. To date, internationally available estimates of population and fertility, although useful, have not been produced with transparent and replicable methods and do not use standardised estimates of mortality. We present single-calendar year and single-year of age estimates of fertility and population by sex with standardised and replicable methods.

METHODS

We estimated population in 195 locations by single year of age and single calendar year from 1950 to 2017 with standardised and replicable methods. We based the estimates on the demographic balancing equation, with inputs of fertility, mortality, population, and migration data. Fertility data came from 7817 location-years of vital registration data, 429 surveys reporting complete birth histories, and 977 surveys and censuses reporting summary birth histories. We estimated age-specific fertility rates (ASFRs; the annual number of livebirths to women of a specified age group per 1000 women in that age group) by use of spatiotemporal Gaussian process regression and used the ASFRs to estimate total fertility rates (TFRs; the average number of children a woman would bear if she survived through the end of the reproductive age span [age 10-54 years] and experienced at each age a particular set of ASFRs observed in the year of interest). Because of sparse data, fertility at ages 10-14 years and 50-54 years was estimated from data on fertility in women aged 15-19 years and 45-49 years, through use of linear regression. Age-specific mortality data came from the Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study (GBD) 2017 estimates. Data on population came from 1257 censuses and 761 population registry location-years and were adjusted for underenumeration and age misreporting with standard demographic methods. Migration was estimated with the GBD Bayesian demographic balancing model, after incorporating information about refugee migration into the model prior. Final population estimates used the cohort-component method of population projection, with inputs of fertility, mortality, and migration data. Population uncertainty was estimated by use of out-of-sample predictive validity testing. With these data, we estimated the trends in population by age and sex and in fertility by age between 1950 and 2017 in 195 countries and territories.

FINDINGS

From 1950 to 2017, TFRs decreased by 49·4% (95% uncertainty interval [UI] 46·4-52·0). The TFR decreased from 4·7 livebirths (4·5-4·9) to 2·4 livebirths (2·2-2·5), and the ASFR of mothers aged 10-19 years decreased from 37 livebirths (34-40) to 22 livebirths (19-24) per 1000 women. Despite reductions in the TFR, the global population has been increasing by an average of 83·8 million people per year since 1985. The global population increased by 197·2% (193·3-200·8) since 1950, from 2·6 billion (2·5-2·6) to 7·6 billion (7·4-7·9) people in 2017; much of this increase was in the proportion of the global population in south Asia and sub-Saharan Africa. The global annual rate of population growth increased between 1950 and 1964, when it peaked at 2·0%; this rate then remained nearly constant until 1970 and then decreased to 1·1% in 2017. Population growth rates in the southeast Asia, east Asia, and Oceania GBD super-region decreased from 2·5% in 1963 to 0·7% in 2017, whereas in sub-Saharan Africa, population growth rates were almost at the highest reported levels ever in 2017, when they were at 2·7%. The global average age increased from 26·6 years in 1950 to 32·1 years in 2017, and the proportion of the population that is of working age (age 15-64 years) increased from 59·9% to 65·3%. At the national level, the TFR decreased in all countries and territories between 1950 and 2017; in 2017, TFRs ranged from a low of 1·0 livebirths (95% UI 0·9-1·2) in Cyprus to a high of 7·1 livebirths (6·8-7·4) in Niger. The TFR under age 25 years (TFU25; number of livebirths expected by age 25 years for a hypothetical woman who survived the age group and was exposed to current ASFRs) in 2017 ranged from 0·08 livebirths (0·07-0·09) in South Korea to 2·4 livebirths (2·2-2·6) in Niger, and the TFR over age 30 years (TFO30; number of livebirths expected for a hypothetical woman ageing from 30 to 54 years who survived the age group and was exposed to current ASFRs) ranged from a low of 0·3 livebirths (0·3-0·4) in Puerto Rico to a high of 3·1 livebirths (3·0-3·2) in Niger. TFO30 was higher than TFU25 in 145 countries and territories in 2017. 33 countries had a negative population growth rate from 2010 to 2017, most of which were located in central, eastern, and western Europe, whereas population growth rates of more than 2·0% were seen in 33 of 46 countries in sub-Saharan Africa. In 2017, less than 65% of the national population was of working age in 12 of 34 high-income countries, and less than 50% of the national population was of working age in Mali, Chad, and Niger.

INTERPRETATION

Population trends create demographic dividends and headwinds (ie, economic benefits and detriments) that affect national economies and determine national planning needs. Although TFRs are decreasing, the global population continues to grow as mortality declines, with diverse patterns at the national level and across age groups. To our knowledge, this is the first study to provide transparent and replicable estimates of population and fertility, which can be used to inform decision making and to monitor progress.

FUNDING

Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation.

Ambulatory blood pressure monitoring and diabetes complications: Targeting morning blood pressure surge and nocturnal dipping

Ambulatory blood pressure monitoring (ABPM) correlates more closely to organ damages than clinic blood pressure (BP). In the current study we aimed to investigate the association between micro- and macrovascular complications of diabetes and both diurnal and nocturnal variability in BP.A total of 192 patients with type 2 diabetes (T2DM) who had complete data on ABPM were selected. BP categories were defined based on 2017 ACC/American Heart Association BP guideline. The cross-sectional association between different BP phenotypes and diabetes complications including cardiovascular disease (CVD), nephropathy, retinopathy, and neuropathy was assessed using multiple logistic regression models adjusted for age, sex, body mass index, hypertension (HTN), hemoglobin A1c, fasting blood glucose (FBG), triglyceride (TG), high-density lipoprotein cholesterol, low-density lipoprotein cholesterol, and total cholesterol.Approximately 48.9% of participants with T2DM had 24-hour HTN. The prevalence of daytime, nighttime, and clinic HTN were 35.9%, 96.3%, and 53.1%, respectively. Approximately 54.2% of participants had nondipping nocturnal pattern and 28.6% were risers. Nondipping nocturnal BP was associated with CVD, neuropathy, and retinopathy (P = .05, .05, and .014, respectively). Sleep trough morning blood pressure surge (MBPS) was associated with neuropathy (P = .023). Neuropathy was also associated with other components of MBPS (P < .05).We demonstrated that diabetic neuropathy was associated with all the components of MBPS and abnormal dipping status. Our results indicated loss of nocturnal BP dipping but not MBPS as a risk factor for CVD and retinopathy in patients with T2DM. Our findings once again highlighted the importance of ambulatory BP monitoring and targeted antihypertensive therapy directed toward to restore normal circadian BP in patients with T2DM.

Citicoline (CDP-choline) add-on therapy to risperidone for treatment of negative symptoms in patients with stable schizophrenia: A double-blind, randomized placebo-controlled trial

OBJECTIVE

We aimed to evaluate the efficacy and tolerability of citicoline add-on therapy in treatment of negative symptoms in patients with stable schizophrenia.

METHODS

In a double-blind and placebo-controlled study, patients with stable schizophrenia (DSM-5) were randomized to receive either 2,500 mg/day citicoline or placebo in addition to risperidone for 8 weeks. The patients were assessed using the positive and negative syndrome scale (PANSS), the extrapyramidal symptom rating scale (ESRS), and Hamilton depression rating scale (HDRS). The primary outcome was the difference in PANSS negative subscale score reduction from baseline to week 8 between the citicoline and the placebo groups.

RESULTS

Sixty-six individuals (out of 73 enrolled) completed the trial. The citicoline group demonstrated significantly greater improvement in negative scores, F(1.840, 118.360) = 8.383, p = .001, as well as general psychopathology, F(1.219, 78.012) = 6.636, p = .008; change in general psychopathology did not remain significant after adjustment, and total PANSS scores, F(1.633, 104.487) = 15.400, p < .001, compared with the placebo. HDRS scores and its changes, ESRS score, and frequency of other side effects were not significantly different between the two groups.

CONCLUSIONS

Citicoline add-on therapy to risperidone can effectively improve the primary negative symptoms of patients with schizophrenia.

Measuring performance on the Healthcare Access and Quality Index for 195 countries and territories and selected subnational locations: a systematic analysis from the Global Burden of Disease Study 2016

BACKGROUND

A key component of achieving universal health coverage is ensuring that all populations have access to quality health care. Examining where gains have occurred or progress has faltered across and within countries is crucial to guiding decisions and strategies for future improvement. We used the Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study 2016 (GBD 2016) to assess personal health-care access and quality with the Healthcare Access and Quality (HAQ) Index for 195 countries and territories, as well as subnational locations in seven countries, from 1990 to 2016.

METHODS

Drawing from established methods and updated estimates from GBD 2016, we used 32 causes from which death should not occur in the presence of effective care to approximate personal health-care access and quality by location and over time. To better isolate potential effects of personal health-care access and quality from underlying risk factor patterns, we risk-standardised cause-specific deaths due to non-cancers by location-year, replacing the local joint exposure of environmental and behavioural risks with the global level of exposure. Supported by the expansion of cancer registry data in GBD 2016, we used mortality-to-incidence ratios for cancers instead of risk-standardised death rates to provide a stronger signal of the effects of personal health care and access on cancer survival. We transformed each cause to a scale of 0-100, with 0 as the first percentile (worst) observed between 1990 and 2016, and 100 as the 99th percentile (best); we set these thresholds at the country level, and then applied them to subnational locations. We applied a principal components analysis to construct the HAQ Index using all scaled cause values, providing an overall score of 0-100 of personal health-care access and quality by location over time. We then compared HAQ Index levels and trends by quintiles on the Socio-demographic Index (SDI), a summary measure of overall development. As derived from the broader GBD study and other data sources, we examined relationships between national HAQ Index scores and potential correlates of performance, such as total health spending per capita.

FINDINGS

In 2016, HAQ Index performance spanned from a high of 97·1 (95% UI 95·8-98·1) in Iceland, followed by 96·6 (94·9-97·9) in Norway and 96·1 (94·5-97·3) in the Netherlands, to values as low as 18·6 (13·1-24·4) in the Central African Republic, 19·0 (14·3-23·7) in Somalia, and 23·4 (20·2-26·8) in Guinea-Bissau. The pace of progress achieved between 1990 and 2016 varied, with markedly faster improvements occurring between 2000 and 2016 for many countries in sub-Saharan Africa and southeast Asia, whereas several countries in Latin America and elsewhere saw progress stagnate after experiencing considerable advances in the HAQ Index between 1990 and 2000. Striking subnational disparities emerged in personal health-care access and quality, with China and India having particularly large gaps between locations with the highest and lowest scores in 2016. In China, performance ranged from 91·5 (89·1-93·6) in Beijing to 48·0 (43·4-53·2) in Tibet (a 43·5-point difference), while India saw a 30·8-point disparity, from 64·8 (59·6-68·8) in Goa to 34·0 (30·3-38·1) in Assam. Japan recorded the smallest range in subnational HAQ performance in 2016 (a 4·8-point difference), whereas differences between subnational locations with the highest and lowest HAQ Index values were more than two times as high for the USA and three times as high for England. State-level gaps in the HAQ Index in Mexico somewhat narrowed from 1990 to 2016 (from a 20·9-point to 17·0-point difference), whereas in Brazil, disparities slightly increased across states during this time (a 17·2-point to 20·4-point difference). Performance on the HAQ Index showed strong linkages to overall development, with high and high-middle SDI countries generally having higher scores and faster gains for non-communicable diseases. Nonetheless, countries across the development spectrum saw substantial gains in some key health service areas from 2000 to 2016, most notably vaccine-preventable diseases. Overall, national performance on the HAQ Index was positively associated with higher levels of total health spending per capita, as well as health systems inputs, but these relationships were quite heterogeneous, particularly among low-to-middle SDI countries.

INTERPRETATION

GBD 2016 provides a more detailed understanding of past success and current challenges in improving personal health-care access and quality worldwide. Despite substantial gains since 2000, many low-SDI and middle-SDI countries face considerable challenges unless heightened policy action and investments focus on advancing access to and quality of health care across key health services, especially non-communicable diseases. Stagnating or minimal improvements experienced by several low-middle to high-middle SDI countries could reflect the complexities of re-orienting both primary and secondary health-care services beyond the more limited foci of the Millennium Development Goals. Alongside initiatives to strengthen public health programmes, the pursuit of universal health coverage hinges upon improving both access and quality worldwide, and thus requires adopting a more comprehensive view-and subsequent provision-of quality health care for all populations.

FUNDING

Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation.

l-Carnosine as Adjunctive Therapy in Children and Adolescents with Attention-Deficit/Hyperactivity Disorder: A Randomized, Double-Blind, Placebo-Controlled Clinical Trial

OBJECTIVES

This study aimed to investigate the efficacy and tolerability of l-carnosine as an add-on to methylphenidate in management of children with attention-deficit/hyperactivity disorder (ADHD).

METHODS

This was an 8-week, randomized, double-blind placebo-controlled study. Fifty-six drug-free children and adolescents aged 6-17 years old with a diagnosis of ADHD entered the study. The patients were randomly assigned to l-carnosine (800 mg/d in two divided doses) or placebo plus methylphenidate (0.5-1.5 mg/kg/d) for 8 weeks. Children were assessed using the Teacher and Parent ADHD Rating Scale-IV (ADHD-RS-IV) at baseline and at weeks 4 and 8 postbaseline.

RESULTS

Fifty patients completed the study, and all had two postbaseline measurements. Using the general linear model repeated measures, significant effect was observed for time × treatment interaction on total and inattention subscales of the Parent ADHD-RS (Greenhouse-Geisser corrected: F = 3.783, df = 1.444, p = 0.041 and F = 4.032, df = 1.600, p = 0.030). Improvements in the Teacher ADHD-RS were not significantly different between the two groups in total (Greenhouse-Geisser corrected: F = 0.200, df = 1.218, p = 0.705), as well as inattention and hyperactivity subscale scores (p = 0.956 and 0.281, respectively). The frequency of side effects was not significantly different between the two treatment arms.

CONCLUSIONS

l-carnosine, as a supplementary medication, might be beneficial in treatment of children with ADHD. However, further investigations and different doses of l-carnosine are required to replicate these findings in children with ADHD.

Palmitoylethanolamide as adjunctive therapy in major depressive disorder: A double-blind, randomized and placebo-controlled trial

BACKGROUND

Experimental studies provide evidence for antidepressant effects of Palmitoylethanolamide (PEA) in animal models of depression. We aimed to evaluate the efficacy and tolerability of PEA add-on therapy in treatment of patients with major depressive disorder (MDD).

METHODS

In a randomized double-blind, and placebo-controlled study, 58 patients with MDD (DSM-5) and Hamilton Depression Rating Scale (HAM-D) score ≥ 19 were randomized to receive either 600 mg twice daily Palmitoylethanolamide or placebo in addition to citalopram for six weeks. Patients were assessed using the HAM-D scale at baseline and weeks 2, 4, and 6.

RESULTS

Fifty-four individuals completed the trial. At week 2, patients in the PEA group demonstrated significantly greater reduction in HAM-D scores compared to the placebo group (8.30 ± 2.41 vs. 5.81 ± 3.57, P = .004). The PEA group also demonstrated significantly greater improvement in depressive symptoms [F (3, 156) = 3.35, P = .021] compared to the placebo group throughout the trial period. The patients in the PEA group experienced more response rate (≥ 50% reduction in the HAM-D score) than the placebo group (100% vs. 74% respectively, P = .01) at the end of the trial. Baseline parameters and frequency of side effects were not significantly different between the two groups.

LIMITATIONS

The population size in this study was small and the follow-up period was relatively short.

CONCLUSIONS

Palmitoylethanolamide adjunctive therapy to citalopram can effectively improve symptoms of patients (predominantly male gender) with major depressive disorder. PEA showed rapid-onset antidepressant effects which need further investigation.

Intercellular adhesion molecule-1 in diabetic patients with and without microalbuminuria

BACKGROUND

Nephropathy is a major complication of type 2 diabetes mellitus (T2DM) and is heralded by the insidious development of microalbuminuria (MA). It is suggested that the serum levels of Intercellular Adhesion Molecule-1 (ICAM-1) is correlated with diabetic nephropathy. In this cross-sectional study, we evaluated serum ICAM-1 level in diabetic patients with and without MA.

METHODS

A total of 187 participants were enrolled and were classified into three groups including 40 healthy controls and 2 diabetic groups with (n = 59) or without MA (n = 88). Serum levels of ICAM-1, fasting plasma glucose (FPG), hemoglobin A1c (HbA1c), total cholesterol, high density lipoprotein cholesterol, low density lipoprotein cholesterol, very low density lipoprotein cholesterol and C-reactive protein (CRP) were measured in all three groups. Statistical analyses were performed using the SPSS software. A P-value less than 0.05 was considered statistically significant.

RESULTS

Serum levels of ICAM-1 were significantly higher in diabetic patients irrespective of MA. Moreover, ICAM-1 levels in patients with MA were significantly higher than patients without MA. Patients with MA had significantly higher age and blood pressure compared to those without MA (P = 0.001). Serum levels of ICAM-1 were significantly correlated with age and HbA1c.

CONCLUSIONS

Overall, serum ICAM-1 levels were significantly higher in T2DM patients with MA and it may be associated with the severity of diabetic kidney disease.

Baseline High-Sensitivity C-Reactive Protein Predicts Macrovascular and Microvascular Complications of Type 2 Diabetes: A Population-Based Study

BACKGROUND/AIMS

This prospective study is aimed at examining the predictive value of high-sensitivity C-reactive protein (hs-CRP) for coronary heart disease (CHD) events and microvascular complications of type 2 diabetes mellitus (T2DM).

METHODS

A population-based study (NCT02958579) was conducted on 1,301 participants with T2DM (mean follow-up of 7.5 years). Risk assessment for vascular events was done at baseline, and serum hs-CRP was measured. End points of this study include CHD events, diabetic retinopathy, neuropathy, and diabetic kidney disease. Individuals with unavailable data or hs-CRP >20 mg/L were excluded. The discrimination and reclassification improvement of study end points were tested after addition of hs-CRP to traditional risk factors.

RESULTS

Median serum hs-CRP was 2.00 ranging from 0.1 to 17 mg/L. Hazards ratio of each SD increment in baseline hs-CRP was 1.028 (1.024-1.032) for CHD, 1.025 (1.021-1.029) for diabetic neuropathy, 1.037 (1.030-1.043) for diabetic retinopathy, and 1.035 (1.027-1.043) for diabetic kidney disease. The addition of hs-CRP to traditional risk factors of vascular complications of T2DM improved discrimination of all end points (p < 0.001). Net reclassification improvement ranged from 8% for diabetic neuropathy to 31% for diabetic kidney disease (p < 0.05).

CONCLUSION

Baseline hs-CRP predicts both of CHD events and microvascular complications of patients with T2D.

L-carnosine as an add-on to risperidone for treatment of negative symptoms in patients with stable schizophrenia: A double-blind, randomized placebo-controlled trial

Since l-carnosine has shown effectiveness in improvement of cognition in patients with schizophrenia, this 8-week, randomized, double-blind, placebo-controlled pilot study was conducted. Sixty-three patients with chronic schizophrenia, who were clinically stable on a stable dose of risperidone, entered the study. The patients were randomly assigned to l-carnosine (2 gr/day in two divided doses) or placebo for eight weeks. The patients were assessed using the positive and negative syndrome scale (PANSS), extrapyramidal symptom rating scale (ESRS), and Hamilton depression rating scale (HDRS) during the study course. Sixty patients completed the trial. L-carnosine resulted in greater improvement of negative scores as well as total PANSS scores but not positive subscale scores compared to placebo. HDRS scores and its changes did not differ between the two groups. Both groups demonstrated a constant ESRS score during the trial course. Frequency of other side effects was not significantly different between the two groups. In a multiple regression analysis model (controlled for positive, general psychopathology, depressive and extrapyramidal symptoms, as well as other variables), the treatment group significantly predicted changes in primary negative symptoms. In conclusion, l-carnosine add-on therapy can safely and effectively reduce the primary negative symptoms of patients with schizophrenia.

l-Carnosine As an Adjunctive Therapy to Risperidone in Children with Autistic Disorder: A Randomized, Double-Blind, Placebo-Controlled Trial

OBJECTIVES

This study aimed at investigating the efficacy and tolerability of l-carnosine as an add-on to risperidone in the management of children with autism.

METHODS

This was a 10-week, randomized, double-blind, placebo-controlled study. Seventy drug-free children aged 4-12 years old with a diagnosis of autism spectrum disorder (ASD), according to the Diagnostic and Statistical Manual of Mental Disorders, fifth edition. (DSM-5) who had an Aberrant Behavior Checklist-Community (ABC-C) scale irritability subscale score of ≥12, entered the study. The patients were randomly assigned to l-carnosine (800 mg/day in 2 divided doses) or placebo in addition to risperidone titrated up to 2 mg/day (based on body weight) for 10 weeks. The children were assessed by using ABC-C at baseline and weeks 5 and 10 post-baseline. The primary outcome measure was the mean change in the ABC-C irritability subscale score, and other subscale scores were defined as secondary outcomes.

RESULTS

Using the general linear model repeated measures, no significant effect was observed for time × treatment interaction on the irritability subscale scores. However, significant effect was detected on the hyperactivity/noncompliance subscale [F (1.62, 64.96) = 3.53, p-value = 0.044]. No significant improvements were obtained on the lethargy/social withdrawal, stereotypic behavior, and inappropriate speech subscale scores. Significantly greater score reduction in the hyperactivity/noncompliance subscale occurred in the l-carnosine group compared with the placebo group at the end of the trial. Extrapyramidal Symptom Rating Scale Scores and its changes did not differ between the two groups. The frequency of other side effects was not significantly different between the two groups.

CONCLUSIONS

Although no significant difference was detected on the irritability subscale scores, l-carnosine add-on can improve hyperactivity/noncompliance subscales of the ABC-C rating scale in patients with ASD.

Beneficial Effects of Pentoxifylline Plus Losartan Dual Therapy in Type 2 Diabetes with Nephropathy

BACKGROUND

This study was designed to comparatively assess the effects of add-on pentoxifylline to losartan versus increasing the dose of losartan on serum N-terminal pro-brain natriuretic peptide (NT-proBNP), serum highly sensitive C-reactive protein (hsCRP) and the urinary albumin excretion (UAE) rate in patients with type 2 diabetes and nephropathy.

METHODS

In an open-label, single-center, parallel-group, randomized clinical trial (NCT03006952), 30 patients received b.i.d. dose of pentoxifylline 400mg plus daily dose of losartan 50mg (pentoxifylline arm) and 29 patients received b.i.d. dose of losartan 50mg (losartan arm) during a 12-week follow-up period.

RESULTS

Serum NT-proBNP, serum hsCRP and UAE levels all significantly decreased from baseline in both trial arms. The pentoxifylline and losartan trial arms were equally effective in reducing serum NT-proBNP levels during the course of trial (multivariable adjusted model P value = 0.864, effect size = 0.2%). There was a greater decrease in UAE and serum hsCRP levels in the pentoxifylline arm (P = 0.034, effect size = 7.8%; P = 0.009, effect size = 11.7%, respectively). Conversely, patients in the losartan arm achieved better systolic and diastolic blood pressure control (P < 0.001, effect size = 25.4%; P = 0.010, effect size = 11.3%, respectively).

CONCLUSIONS

Circulating NT-proBNP levels equally and significantly reduced from baseline in the pentoxifylline and losartan treatment arms, in parallel with comparatively superior decreases of UAE and serum hsCRP in the pentoxifylline arm, and larger decreases of systolic and diastolic blood pressures in the losartan arm.