Associations Between Buprenorphine\Naloxone and Methadone Treatment and non-Opioid Substance Use in Prescription-Type Opioid Use Disorder: Secondary Analyses From the OPTIMA Study: Associations entre le traitement avec la buprénorphine/naloxone et avec la méthadone et l'utilisation de substances non opioïdes dans le trouble lié à l'usage d'opioïdes de type sur ordonnance : analyses secondaires de l'étude OPTIMA

OBJECTIVES

There is limited evidence on how opioid agonist treatment (OAT) may affect psychoactive non-opioid substance use in prescription-type opioid use disorder (POUD) and whether this effect might explain OAT outcomes. We aimed to assess the effect of methadone on non-opioid substance use compared to buprenorphine/naloxone (BUP/NX), to explore whether non-opioid substance use is associated with opioid use and retention in treatment, and to test non-opioid use as a moderator of associations between methadone with retention in OAT and opioid use compared to BUP/NX.

METHODS

This is a secondary analysis of data from the OPTIMA trial, an open-label, pragmatic, parallel, two-arm, pan-Canadian, multicentre, randomized-controlled trial to compare standard methadone model of care and flexible take-home dosing BUP/NX for POUD treatment. We studied the effect of methadone and BUP/NX on non-opioid substance use evaluated by urine drug screen (UDS) and by classes of non-opioid substances (i.e., tetrahydrocannabinol [THC], benzodiazepines, stimulants) (weeks 2-24) using adjusted generalized estimation equation (GEE). We studied the association between non-opioid substance-positive UDS and opioid-positive UDS and retention in treatment, using adjusted GEE and logistic regressions.

RESULTS

Overall, methadone was not associated with non-opioid substance-positive UDS compared to BUP/NX (OR: 0.78; 95%CI, 0.41 to 1.48). When non-opioid substances were studied separately, methadone was associated with lower odds of benzodiazepine-positive UDS (OR: 0.63; 95% CI: 0.40 to 0.98) and THC-positive UDS (OR: 0.47; 95% CI: 0.28 to 0.77), but not with different odds of stimulant-positive UDS (OR: 1.29; 95% CI: 0.78 to 2.16) compared to BUP/NX. Substance-positive UDS, overall and separate classes, were not associated with opioid-positive UDS or retention in treatment.

CONCLUSION

Methadone did not show a significant effect on overall non-opioid substance use in POUD compared to BUP/NX treatment but was associated with lower odds of benzodiazepine and THC use in particular. Non-opioid substance use did not predict OAT outcomes. Further research is needed to ascertain whether specific patterns of polysubstance use (quantity and frequency) may affect treatment outcomes.

Prescription psychostimulants for the treatment of amphetamine-type stimulant use disorder: A systematic review and meta-analysis of randomized placebo-controlled trials

BACKGROUND AND AIMS

There is currently no standard of care for pharmacological treatment of amphetamine-type stimulant (ATS) use disorder (ATSUD). This systematic review with meta-analysis (PROSPERO CRD42022354492) aimed to pool results from randomized placebo-controlled trials (RCTs) to evaluate efficacy and safety of prescription psychostimulants (PPs) for ATSUD.

METHODS

Major indexing sources and trial registries were searched to include records published before 29 August 2022. Eligible studies were RCTs evaluating efficacy and safety of PPs for ATSUD. Risk of bias (RoB) was assessed using the Cochrane RoB 2 tool. Risk ratio (RR) and risk difference were calculated for random-effect meta-analysis of dichotomous variables. Mean difference and standardized mean difference (SMD) were calculated for random-effect meta-analysis of continuous variables.

RESULTS

Ten RCTs (n = 561 participants) were included in the meta-analysis. Trials studied methylphenidate (n = 7), with daily doses of 54-180 mg, and dextroamphetamine (n = 3), with daily doses of 60-110 mg, for 2-24 weeks. PPs significantly decreased end-point craving [SMD  -0.29; 95% confidence interval (CI) = -0.55, -0.03], while such a decrease did not reach statistical significance for ATS use, as evaluated by urine analysis (UA) (RR = 0.93; 95% CI = 0.85-1.01). No effect was observed for self-reported ATS use, retention in treatment, dropout following adverse events, early-stage craving, withdrawal and depressive symptoms. In a sensitivity analysis, treatment was associated with a significant reduction in UA positive for ATS (RR = 0.89; 95% CI = 0.79-0.99) after removing studies with a high risk of bias. In subgroup analyses, methylphenidate and high doses of PPs were negatively associated with ATS use by UA, while higher doses of PPs and treatment duration (≥ 20 weeks) were positively associated with longer retention.

CONCLUSIONS

Among individuals with amphetamine-type stimulant use disorder, treatment with prescription psychostimulants may decrease ATS use and craving. While effect size is limited, it may increase with a higher dosage of medications.

Bupropion for treatment of amphetamine-type stimulant use disorder: A systematic review and meta-analysis of placebo-controlled randomized clinical trials

BACKGROUND

This meta-analysis (PROSPERO-ID: CRD42022362962), pooled effect estimates of outcomes, from placebo-controlled randomized clinical trials (RCTs) examining bupropion efficacy and safety for amphetamine-type stimulant use disorder (ATSUD) treatment.

METHOD

Electronic databases were searched for records published to October 31st, 2022, including MEDLINE, CINAHL, PsycINFO, EBM Reviews, EMBASE, PubMed, Web of Science, trial registries. Inclusion criteria were RCTs comparing bupropion to placebo in ATSUD. Cochrane RoB2 tool and GRADE evidence certainty assessment were employed. Outcomes included amphetamine-type stimulant (ATS) use by urinalysis, retention in treatment, treatment adherence, ATS craving, addiction severity, depressive symptom severity, drop-out following adverse events (AEs), and serious AEs. Random-effect meta-analysis was conducted presenting standardized mean difference (SMD), risk ratio (RR), and risk difference (RD).

RESULTS

Eight RCTs (total N=1239 participants) were included. Bupropion compared to placebo was associated with reduced ATS use (RR: 0.90; 95% CI: 0.84, 0.96), end-of-treatment ATS craving (SMD: -0.38; 95%CI: -0.63, -0.13), and adherence (RR: 0.91; 95%CI: 0.84, 0.99). Subgroup analysis showed greater reduction in ATS use with longer trial duration (12 weeks) (RR: 0.85; 95%CI: 0.78, 0.93) and greater reduction in end-of-treatment ATS craving in studies with mixed ATS use frequency (SMD: -0.46; 95%CI: -0.70, -0.22) and male-only samples (SMD: -1.26; 95%CI: -1.87, -0.65).

CONCLUSION

Bupropion showed a significant modest reduction in ATS use and ATS craving (both rated as very low-quality evidence), larger in males (craving), and with longer treatment (ATS use). These results may inform future studies. More research is warranted on who might benefit from bupropion as ATSUD treatment.

Injection cessation and relapse to injection and the associated factors among people who inject drugs in Iran: The Rostam study

BACKGROUND

Drug injection is a major health-related problem worldwide. Injection cessation and relapse to injection could significantly alter the risk of HIV and hepatitis C virus (HCV) among people who inject drugs (PWID). This study aimed to estimate the rate of injection cessation and relapse to injection among PWID in Iran.

METHODS

This cohort study was conducted from 2018 to 2021 in the cities of Kerman and Tehran. Using a respondent-driven sampling (RDS) approach, 118 PWID with a history of injection in the last six months and negative HIV and HCV tests were recruited. Follow-up visits occurred every three months over a period of one year. Participants were interviewed and tested for HIV and HCV using rapid tests. Injection cessation was defined as the no injection of any type of drugs in the last three months. Relapse to injection was defined as re-initiating drug injection among those who had ceased injection. Two separate Cox regression models were applied, and an adjusted hazard ratio (aHR) with a 95% confidence interval (CI) were measured to assess the factors associated with each outcome.

RESULTS

The rate of injection cessation was 26.1 (95% CI: 21.3, 32.0) per 100 person-years, and the rate of relapse to injection was 32.7 (95% CI: 24.7, 43.2) per 100 person-years. At the baseline interview, 39.8% (n = 47) of participants reported injection cessation in the past three months before the interview. In the multivariable Cox regression analysis, the rate of relapse to injection was greater among women (aHR = 1.58; 95% CI: 1.01, 2.52), and those with higher monthly income (aHR = 1.63; 95% CI: 1.03, 2.59). However, there was no significant variable that predicted injection cessation.

CONCLUSION

Injection cessation was common among PWID in Iran, however, one-third relapsed to injection shortly after cessation. Harm reduction programs should include comprehensive strategies to reduce the probability of relapse among PWID who achieve injection cessation.

Trends in the Prevalence of Hepatitis B Virus, Hepatitis C Virus, and HIV Infections in Iranian Patients with Hereditary Bleeding Disorders

Background: Patients with hereditary bleeding disorders (HBDs) have always been vulnerable to transfusion-transmitted infections (TTIs) such as hepatitis B virus (HBV), hepatitis C virus (HCV), and human immunodeficiency virus (HIV) infections due to being regular recipients of blood and blood products. This study aimed to detect the trends in the prevalence of HBV, HCV, and HIV infections by birthyear in Iranian patients with HBDs to show the efficacy of national interventions implemented to administrate control and to prevent these infections, i.e., blood safety, newborn HBV vaccination, and safe replacement treatments. Methods: In this retrospective study, the trends in the prevalence of hepatitis B core antibody (HBcAb), HCV antibody (HCV-Ab), and HIV antibody (HIV-Ab) in Iranian patients with HBDs born before 2012 were assessed using patients’ clinical archives. The determinants of HBV, HCV, and HIV infections were investigated in bivariable and multivariable logistic regression analyses. Results: Out of 1475 patients with HBDs, most were male (87.7%) and diagnosed with hemophilia A (52.1%) and severe bleeding disorder (63.7%). The prevalence of HBcAb, HCV-Ab, and confirmed HIV-Ab was 22.9%, 59.8%, and 1.2%, respectively. The trends in HBcAb, HCV-Ab, and HIV-Ab were all decreasing by birthyear and reached a stable level of 0% for patients with birthyears in 1999, 2000, and 1984, respectively. In multivariable analysis, birthyear was significantly associated with HBcAb prevalence. In the multivariable analysis, type of HBD; birthyear; bleeding severity; histories of receiving packed cells, fresh frozen plasma, and cryoprecipitate before 1996; and history of receiving factor concentrate before 1997 were highly associated with the prevalence of HCV-Ab. Moreover, in the bivariable analysis, birthyear and type of HBD were associated with HIV-Ab prevalence. Conclusion: This study demonstrated the decreasing trends in HBV, HCV, and HIV seroprevalence in Iranian patients with HBDs following preventive interventions such as HBV vaccination, blood safety measures, and the provision of safe replacement treatments.

Hepatitis C virus prevalence, determinants, and cascade of care among people who inject drugs in Iran

BACKGROUND

People who inject drugs (PWID) continue to experience the highest burden of hepatitis C virus (HCV). We aimed to characterize HCV antibody prevalence, determinants of infection, and the cascade of engagement in HCV care among PWID in Iran.

METHODS

Participants were recruited in 11 cities of Iran using respondent-driven sampling. PWID underwent a structured interview capturing measures on socio-demographics, behaviors, and the HCV cascade of care. HCV and HIV were tested using antibody rapid tests. Multivariable logistic regression models identified characteristics associated with HCV seropositivity.

RESULTS

HCV antibody prevalence was 26.0% among 2684 PWID enrolled. Of 699 participants who were HCV antibody positive, 88 (12.6%) were aware of past infections. HCV antibody prevalence was associated with older age (adjusted odds ratio [aOR] 2.09; 95% CI 1.18, 3.71), lower education (aOR 1.31; 95% CI 1.02, 1.69), >10 years of injecting (aOR 6.03; 95% CI 4.10, 8.85), methamphetamine injection (aOR 1.46; 95% CI 1.07, 1.99), daily injection drug use (aOR 1.26; 95% CI 1.01, 1.58), needle/syringe sharing (aOR 2.04; 95% CI 1.24, 3.34), recent incarceration (aOR 1.74; 95% CI 1.30, 2.32), and HIV seropositivity (aOR 7.93; 95% CI 4.12, 15.24). Additionally, 12.0% had ever tested for HCV, 4.0% had previously tested reactive for HCV antibody, and 3.7% had received an HCV diagnosis. Of diagnosed cases, 44.4% were linked to care, 15.2% initiated treatment, and 3.0% achieved sustained virologic response.

CONCLUSION

Our data show a high prevalence of HCV antibody and low engagement in HCV care, underscoring an unmet need for HCV prevention, screening, and treatment among PWID in Iran. HCV prevention and treatment programs tailored for PWID are needed to enhance harm reduction efforts and access to HCV care in Iran.

Association of single nucleotide polymorphisms in immune-related genes with spontaneous HBsAg seroconversion: A systematic review and meta-analysis

BACKGROUND

Studies have reported that the immune system modulation genes are involved in the seroconversion during hepatitis B virus (HBV) infection. Here, a systematic review with meta-analysis is implemented on the association of polymorphisms in immune-related genes with the spontaneous hepatitis B surface antigen (HBsAg) seroconversion.

METHODS

A systematic literature search was conducted in the main electronic databases of Scopus, PubMed, and Web of Science before May 2022. Pooled odds ratio (OR) and their corresponding 95% confidence interval (CI) were used to evaluate the strength of the association between genetic polymorphisms and the chance of spontaneous HBsAg seroconversion.

RESULTS

A total of 40 studies finally included for meta-analysis of 2 HLA-DP SNPs, 2 HLA-DQ SNPs, 3 IFNL3/4 SNPs, 2 IL10 SNPs, and 5 TNF SNPs. Based on the overall pooled analysis, HLA-DP rs3077 A (OR = 1.47, 95%CI: 1.32-1.65), HLA-DP rs9277535 A (OR = 1.48, 95%CI: 1.32-1.66), HLA-DQ rs2856718 G (OR = 1.37, 95%CI: 1.18-1.59), HLA-DQ rs7453920 A (OR = 1.41, 95%CI: 1.04-1.93), IFNL3/4 rs12980275 G (OR = 1.26, 95%CI: 1.01-1.58), TNFA rs1799964 T (OR = 1.17, 95%CI: 1.02-1.35), and TNFA rs1800630 C (OR = 1.26, 95%CI: 1.03-1.55) increased significantly the chance of spontaneous HBsAg seroconversion.

CONCLUSION

This meta-analysis showed that the HLA-DP gene rs3077 and rs9277535 SNPs, HLA-DQ gene rs2856718 and rs7453920 SNPs, IFNL3/4 gene rs12980275 SNP, TNFA gene rs1799964 and rs1800630 SNPs are involved in the spontaneous HBsAg seroconversion.

Economic evaluation of pan-genotypic generic direct-acting antiviral regimens for treatment of chronic hepatitis C in Iran: a cost-effectiveness study

INTRODUCTION

Low-cost generic direct-acting antiviral (DAA) regimens for treatment of hepatitis C virus (HCV) are available in several low-income/middle-income countries, important for treatment scale-up. This study evaluated the cost-effectiveness of genotype-dependent and pan-genotypic DAA regimens in Iran as an example of a resource-limited setting.

METHODS

A Markov model was developed to simulate HCV natural history. A decision tree was developed for HCV treatment, assuming four scenarios, including scenario 1: genotyping, sofosbuvir/ledipasvir (SOF/LDV) for genotype 1, and sofosbuvir/daclatasvir (SOF/DCV) for genotype 3; scenario 2: genotyping, SOF/LDV for genotype 1, and sofosbuvir/velpatasvir (SOF/VEL) for genotype 3; scenario 3: no genotyping and SOF/DCV for all; and scenario 4: no genotyping and SOF/VEL for all. A 1-year cycle length was used to calculate the cumulative cost and effectiveness over a lifetime time horizon. We calculated quality-adjusted life years (QALYs), and incremental cost-effectiveness ratio (ICER) using a health system perspective. Costs were converted to US dollars using purchasing power parity exchange rate ($PPP). All costs and outcomes were discounted at an annual rate of 3%.

RESULTS

Among people with no cirrhosis, scenario 3 had the minimum cost, compared with which scenario 4 was cost-effective with an ICER of 4583 $PPP per QALY (willingness-to-pay threshold: 9,311 $PPP per QALY). Among both people with compensated or decompensated cirrhosis, scenario 4 was cost saving. In sensitivity analysis, scenario 4 would be also cost-saving among people with no cirrhosis provided a 39% reduction in the cost of 12 weeks SOF/VEL.

CONCLUSION

Initiating all patients on pan-genotypic generic DAA regimens with no pretreatment genotyping was cost-effective compared with scenarios requiring pretreatment HCV genotype tests. Among generic pan-genotypic DAA regimens, SOF/VEL was cost-effective, for people with no cirrhosis and cost-saving for those with cirrhosis.

An on-site community-based model for hepatitis C screening, diagnosis, and treatment among people who inject drugs in Kerman, Iran: The Rostam study

BACKGROUND

People who inject drugs (PWID) are at high risk for hepatitis C virus (HCV) infection and its complications in many countries, including Iran. This pilot study aimed to evaluate the effect of a community-based HCV model of care on HCV testing and treatment initiation among PWID in Kerman, Iran.

METHODS

This study is part of the Rostam study and is a non-randomized trial evaluating the effect of on-site HCV- antibody rapid testing, venipuncture for HCV RNA testing, and treatment eligibility assessment on HCV testing and treatment initiation among PWID. Recruitment, interviews, and HCV screening, diagnosis, and treatment were all conducted at a community-based drop-in center (DIC) serving PWID clients.

RESULTS

A total of 171 PWID (median age of 39 years and 89.5% male) were recruited between July 2018 and May 2019. Of 62 individuals who were HCV antibody positive, 47 (75.8%) were HCV RNA positive. Of RNA-positive individuals, 36 (76.6%) returned for treatment eligibility assessment. Of all the 36 participants eligible for treatment, 34 (94.4%) initiated HCV antiviral therapy. A sustained virologic response at 12 weeks post-treatment was 76.5% (26/34) in the intention-to-treat (ITT group) analysis and 100% (23/23) in the per-protocol (PP group) analysis.

CONCLUSION

Our integrated on-site community-based HCV care model within a DIC setting suggested that HCV care including HCV testing and treatment uptake can be successfully delivered outside of hospitals or specialized clinics; a model which is more likely to reach PWID and can provide significant progress towards HCV elimination among this population.

First report on molecular docking analysis and drug resistance substitutions to approved HCV NS5A and NS5B inhibitors amongst Iranian patients

Background

NS5A and NS5B proteins of hepatitis C virus (HCV) are the main targets of compounds that directly inhibit HCV infections. However, the emergence of resistance-associated substitutions (RASs) may cause substantial reductions in susceptibility to inhibitors.

Methods

Viral load and genotyping were determined in eighty-seven naïve HCV-infected patients, and the amplified NS5A and NS5B regions were sequenced by Sanger sequencing. In addition, physicochemical properties, structural features, immune epitopes, and inhibitors-protein interactions of sequences were analyzed using several bioinformatics tools.

Results

Several amino acid residue changes were found in NS5A and NS5B proteins; however, we did not find any mutations related to resistance to the treatment in NS5B. Different phosphorylation and few glycosylation sites were assessed. Disulfide bonds were identified in both proteins that had a significant effect on the function and structure of HCV proteins. Applying reliable software to predict B-cell epitopes, 3 and 5 regions were found for NS5A and NS5B, respectively, representing a considerable potential to induce the humoral immune system. Docking analysis determined amino acids involved in the interaction of inhibitors and mentioned proteins may not decrease the drug efficiency.

Conclusions

Strong interactions between inhibitors, NS5A and NS5B proteins and the lack of efficient drug resistance mutations in the analyzed sequences may confirm the remarkable ability of NS5A and NS5B inhibitors to control HCV infection amongst Iranian patients. The results of bioinformatics analysis could unveil all features of both proteins, which can be beneficial for further investigations on HCV drug resistance and designing novel vaccines.

Supplementary Information

The online version contains supplementary material available at 10.1186/s12876-021-01988-y.

Prevalence of Hepatitis B and Hepatitis C Infections among Incarcerated Individuals in Iran: A Cross-Sectional National Bio-behavioral Study in 2019

Introduction: To realize the global goals of eliminating hepatitis B virus (HBV) and hepatitis C virus (HCV) by 2030, it is necessary to monitor the status of disease among target populations and undertake the required interventions. This study is the third round of surveys to determine the prevalence of hepatitis B and C infections among incarcerated individuals in different provinces of Iran. Methods: This study was conducted in five provinces of Iran (including Kurdistan, Ardabil, West Azerbaijan, Markazi, and Semnan) in 2019. The subjects of the study were selected from incarcerated people in prisons of all provinces that had not been studied in the previous two rounds of the surveys (in 2015 and 2016) in Iran. In this study, 15 prisons were selected and 2475 incarcerated individuals were enrolled into the study based on the multistage sampling method; the selected subjects were surveyed and their dried blood spot (DBS) samples were collected to test HBsAg and HCV-Ab. In cases with a reactive result for HCV-Ab, an HCV-RNA test was also performed on their serum samples. The relationships between independent variables and outcomes were evaluated via logistic regression. Results: Of all participants (2475 subjects) enrolled in the study, 54.18% were selected from northern provinces and 45.82% from the central provinces. The prevalence of HCV-Ab and HBsAg among incarcerated individuals was 5.66% (95% CI: 4.81% to 6.64%) and 2.42% (95% CI: 1.89% to 3.11%), respectively. Among HCV-seropositive individuals, 73.68% (95% CI: 64.70% to 81.01%) had current HCV infection (detectable HCV-RNA). The results showed that histories of imprisonment, drug use, unprotected sexual contact, drug injection, tattooing, and younger age in the first-time drug use in incarcerated individuals significantly increased the risk of HCV transmission. Among these behaviors, drug injection was more likely than other behaviors to result in contracting HCV in incarcerated individuals (OR: 22.91; 95% CI: 14.92–35.18; p < 0.001). Conclusion: To achieve international and national strategies targeted to eliminate HCV and HBV by 2030, it is necessary to pay special attention to prisons in Iran. It is recommended to continue HBV vaccination of eligible people in prisons. Developing screening and treatment protocols for individuals with HCV infection in prisons can help the country to achieve HCV elimination goals.

Treatment of hepatitis C virus infection with direct-acting antiviral agent-based regimens in Iranian patients with hereditary bleeding disorders

Background

Chronic hepatitis C (CHC) is one of the most important comorbidities in patients with hereditary bleeding disorders (HBD). The present study aimed at evaluating the effectiveness of direct-acting antiviral agent (DAA)-based interferon-free HCV antiviral regimens in patients with HBD.

Patients and methods

The present study was performed on the patients with HBD and CHC between 2015 and 2019. Sofosbuvir-based interferon-free regimens with or without ribavirin were prescribed to treat HCV infection. The main endpoint of the study was to determine the sustained virologic response (SVR), assessed 12 weeks after the completion of treatment.

Results

A total of 147 patients with a mean age of 41.1 years were enrolled in the study; 4.1% of them were co-infected with HIV, 25.2% had cirrhosis, and 76.9% of them were diagnosed with hemophilia A. HCV genotype-1 includes the largest number (68.1%) of patients. 46.3% of patients were treatment-naïve and others had a treatment history with interferon-based regimens. Out of 147 patients, 15 patients were lost to follow-up during treatment or for SVR evaluation or discontinued treatment. 132 subjects completed treatment and were evaluated for SVR, 12 weeks after the completion of treatment. All of the patients achieved SVR 12 (SVR rate: 100%, 95% CI 97.2–100%).

Conclusion

Hepatitis C DAA-based regimens are the effective treatments for CHC in patients with HBD, regardless of the treatment modifiers such as previous treatment experience, cirrhosis, HIV co-infection, and HCV genotype.

Proportion and reasons for loss to follow-up in a cohort study of people who inject drugs to measure HIV and HCV incidence in Kerman, Iran

Background

Understanding the reasons for loss to follow-up (LTFU) in cohort studies, especially among marginalized groups such as people who inject drugs (PWID), is needed to strengthen the rigor of efficacy trials for prevention and treatment interventions. We assessed the proportion and reasons for loss to follow-up in a recent cohort of PWID enrolled in the southeast of Iran.

Methods

Using respondent-driven sampling, we recruited 98 PWID age 18 years or older who reported injecting drugs in the past 6 months, and were negative for HIV and HCV at initial screening. Participants were followed at 6 week intervals, alternating a short six-week visit and long 12-week or quarterly visit to measure incidence of HIV and HCV. Methods to enhance retention included incentives for completing each visit, tracking people who missed the scheduled visits through their peer referral networks, engaged outreach teams to explore hotspots and residences, and photos. LTFU was defined as participants who missed their quarterly visits for two or more weeks.

Results

Mean (SD) age of participants was 39.7 years (SD 9.6). Of 98 enrolled, 50 participants (51.0%) were LTFU by missed their scheduled quarterly visits for 2 weeks or more. For those whose reasons for LTFU could be defined (46.0%, 23 of 50), main reasons were: forgetting the date of visit (43.5%, 10 of 23), being incarcerated (39.1%, 9 of 23), and moving out of the city (17.4%, 4 of 23).

Conclusion

This study highlighted the difficulty in retaining PWID in longitudinal studies. Despite having several retention strategies in place, over half of PWID were LTFU. The LTFU might be reduced by setting up more effective reminder systems, working closely with security systems, and online means to reach those who move outside the study area.

Prevalence of Naturally-Occurring NS5A and NS5B Resistance-Associated Substitutions in Iranian Patients With Chronic Hepatitis C Infection

BACKGROUND

Hepatitis C virus (HCV), non-structural 5A (NS5A), and non-structural 5B (NS5B) resistance-associated substitutions (RASs) are the main causes of failure to direct-acting antiviral agents (DAAs). NS5A and NS5B RASs can occur in patients with HCV infection naturally and before exposure to DAAs.

OBJECTIVES

This study aimed to evaluate naturally-occurring NS5A and NS5B RASs in Iranian patients with HCV genotype 1a (HCV-1a) and -3a infections.

METHODS

In this cross-sectional study, viral RNA was extracted from serum specimens. NS5A and NS5B regions were amplified using RT-PCR followed by DNA sequencing. The results of nucleotide sequences were aligned against reference sequences of HCV-1a and -3a and the amino acid substitutions were analyzed using geno2pheno [hcv] web application.

RESULTS

Among 135 patients with hepatitis C, NS5A amino acid substitutions/RASs were identified in 26.4% and 15.9% of patients with HCV-1a and -3a infections, respectively. The identified amino acid substitutions/RASs in the NS5A region of patients with HCV-1a infection were M28T/V/I 11.1%, Q30R/H 4.2%, L31M 1.4%, and H58Y/P/C/D/Q/S/T 16.7%. Y93H substitution was not found in HCV-1a sequences. In patients with HCV-3a infection, NS5A amino acid substitutions/RASs were A30T/K 9.5%, L31F 1.6%, P58S/T/C 3.2%, Y93H 3.2%, and Y93N 3.2%. No resistance substitutions were identified in NS5B sequences from patients with HCV-1a and -3a infections.

CONCLUSION

In this study, baseline amino acid substitutions/RASs were only identified in the NS5A region in Iranian patients with HCV-1a and -3a infections, and the prevalence of these amino acid substitutions/RASs were in accordance with similar studies. There were no RASs in the HCV-1a and -3a NS5B region.

Harm reduction program and hepatitis C prevalence in people who inject drugs (PWID) in Iran: an updated systematic review and cumulative meta-analysis

BACKGROUND

Prevalence of hepatitis C virus (HCV) infection among people who inject drugs (PWID) in Iran is high. Since 2005, the Iranian government has implemented a harm reduction program to control HCV. We aimed to describe the prevalence of HCV antibody (Ab) in Iranian PWID before and after the implementation of harm reduction with cumulative meta-analysis.

METHODS

Following PRISMA guidelines, we conducted a systematic review and meta-analysis of studies published on the seroprevalence of HCV among PWID. We systematically reviewed the literature to identify eligible studies up to December 2018 in international and national databases. Pooled prevalence and 95% confidence intervals were calculated using Der Simonian and Laird method, taking into account conceptual heterogeneity. Subgroup analyses were performed by harm reduction implementation and studies' characteristics to assess the sources of heterogeneity. We used Cochran-Armitage test for the linear trend of the prevalence of HCV Ab among PWID.

RESULTS

We reviewed 5966 papers and reports and extracted data from 62 eligible records. The pooled HCV Ab prevalence among PWID in Iran was 46.5% (95% confidence interval [95% CI] 41.1-52.0%). Overall, the Cochran-Armitage test for trend indicated a significant decreasing trend of HCV Ab prevalence (P = 0.04). The cumulative meta-analysis showed a slight decline in the prevalence of HCV Ab between the years 2005 and 2018.

CONCLUSIONS

The HCV Ab prevalence among PWID in Iran is high, with a considerable geographical variation. The prevalence of HCV Ab among PWID in Iran slightly decreased after 2005 which could be, at least to some extent, related to the implementation of extensive harm reduction programs in the country.

Continuum of hepatitis C care cascade in prison and following release in the direct-acting antivirals era

BACKGROUND

People with criminal justice involvement contribute remarkably to the rising hepatitis C virus (HCV) burden; however, the continuum of care is a major barrier to prison-based programs. We aimed to evaluate a comprehensive HCV care model in an Iranian provincial prison.

METHODS

Between 2017-2018, in the Karaj Central Prison, newly admitted male inmates received HCV antibody testing and venipuncture for RNA testing (antibody-positive only). Participants with positive RNA underwent direct-acting antiviral (DAA) therapy (Sofosbuvir/Daclatasvir). Sustained virological response was evaluated at 12 weeks post-treatment (SVR12).

RESULTS

Overall, from 3485 participants, 182 (5.2%) and 117 (3.4%) tested positive for HCV antibody and RNA, respectively. Among 116 patients who were eligible for treatment, 24% (n = 28) were released before treatment and 72% (n = 83) initiated DAA therapy, of whom 81% (n = 67/83) completed treatment in prison, and the rest were released. Of total released patients, 68% (n = 30/44) were linked to care in community, and 70% (n = 21/30) completed treatment, including 60% (n = 12/20) and 90% (n = 9/10) among those who were released before and during treatment, respectively. The overall HCV treatment uptake and completion were 89% (n = 103/116) and 85% (n = 88/103), respectively. From people who completed treatment, 43% (n = 38/88) attended for response assessment and all were cured (SVR12 = 100%).

CONCLUSIONS

Integrated HCV care models are highly effective and can be significantly strengthened by post-release interventions. The close collaboration of community and prison healthcare systems is crucial to promote high levels of treatment adherence. Future studies should investigate the predictors of engagement with HCV care following release.

Global prevalence of HCV and/or HBV coinfections among people who inject drugs and female sex workers who live with HIV/AIDS: a systematic review and meta-analysis

Coinfections of hepatitis C virus (HCV) and/or hepatitis B virus (HBV) with human immunodeficiency virus/acquired immunodeficiency syndrome (HIV/AIDS) are associated with high morbidity and mortality and poor prognosis. The main objective of this study was to evaluate the prevalence of HCV and/or HBV coinfections among people who inject drugs (PWID) and female sex workers (FSWs) who live with HIV/AIDS worldwide. Data sources were searched from January 2008 to October 2018 in different databases, including PubMed, Scopus, Web of Science, Embase, and Ovid. Data were analyzed in Stata 14 software using the Metaprop command. The results showed that the prevalence of HCV among PWID and FSWs with HIV/AIDS was 72% (95% CI: 59%-83%) and 40% (95% CI: 0%-94%), respectively. The prevalence of HBV among PWID and FSWs with HIV/AIDS was 8% (95% CI: 5%-13%) and 2% (95% CI: 0%-7%), respectively, and the prevalence of HCV/HBV in PWID with HIV/AIDS was 11% (95% CI: 7%-15%). The highest prevalence of HCV was observed in PWID in the Eastern Mediterranean and Europe regions, and the lowest was observed in the Africa region. The South-East Asia region had the highest prevalence of HBV among PWID, and the Africa region had the lowest prevalence. The high prevalence of HCV coinfection among PWID and FSWs with HIV/AIDS was an alarming health problem and requires appropriate interventions. Therefore, considering that these populations are key populations for HCV elimination, it is recommended to screen them regularly for HCV. In addition, harm reduction and HBV vaccination should be carefully considered.

Changes in the distribution of etiologies of cirrhosis among patients referred for liver transplantation over 11 years in Iran

BACKGROUND AND AIM

Cirrhosis is a major public health problem worldwide. The prevalence of cirrhosis is various in different geographical regions. The aim of the present study was to determine the distribution of the etiologies of cirrhosis and their proportional changes through recent 11 years in Iran.

METHODS

In this retrospective, observational study, the data of cirrhotic patients who have been listed for liver transplantation in the Namazi Transplant Center (Shiraz, Iran) between January 2006 and December 2016 were analyzed. Demographic and clinical data of the patients including model for end-stage liver disease score, year of registration, and the etiologic diagnosis for each patient were retrieved.

RESULTS

The ratio of males to females was the highest (2.6:1) in patients with age over 50 years. Of 4891 patients, hepatitis B virus cirrhosis had the highest frequency (23.53%) and alcoholic cirrhosis had the lowest frequency (1.70%). The percentages of waiting list patients with hepatitis B virus (34.48%-17.48%) (P < 0.001), autoimmune hepatitis (12.64%-8.50%) (P = 0.037), and alcoholic cirrhosis (2.30%-1.10%) were decreased (P = 0.008) and the percentages of waiting list patients with cholestatic (12.64%-25.20%) and nonalcoholic steatohepatitis cirrhosis (0.77%-8.82%) were increased over 11 years (both P < 0.001). Hepatitis B virus and autoimmune hepatitis cirrhosis were the most prevalent in male and female patients, respectively.

CONCLUSION

The results of the present study showed an increase in the frequency of cholestasis and nonalcoholic steatohepatitis cirrhosis and therefore it should be considered in the health policy implementation.

Systematic Review and Meta-Analysis of Global Prevalence of HBsAg and HIV and HCV Antibodies among People Who Inject Drugs and Female Sex Workers

The main objective of this study was to evaluate the prevalence of human immunodeficiency virus/acquired immunodeficiency syndrome (HIV/AIDS), hepatitis C virus (HCV) and hepatitis B virus (HBV) and their co-infections among people who inject drugs (PWID) and female sex workers (FSWs). Data sources were searched from January 2008 to October 2018 in different databases. Data were analyzed in Stata 16 software using the Metaprop command. The results showed that the prevalence of HIV, HCV and HBV among PWID was 15%, 60% and 6%, respectively. The prevalence of HIV, HCV and HBV among FSWs was 5%, 1% and 3%, respectively. The prevalence of HIV/HCV, HIV/HBV, HCV/HBV and HIV/HCV/HBV co-infections among PWID was 13%, 2%, 3% and 2%, respectively. The prevalence of HIV/HCV and HIV/HBV co-infections among FSWs was 3% and 1%, respectively. The results show that the prevalence of HCV and HIV infections in PWID and the prevalence of HIV in FSWs is higher than their prevalence in the general population. Interventions for the prevention of HIV and HCV in PWID appear to be poor, and may not be sufficient to effectively prevent HIV and HCV transmission.

Real-life efficacy of generic sofosbuvir/ledipasvir for treatment of Iranian patients with chronic hepatitis C: A cohort study

Background

Treatment of hepatitis C virus (HCV) infection with recently introduced direct-acting antiviral agents (DAA) is effective and safe, however there is little known regarding safety and efficacy of generic DAAs in the real-life clinical setting. This study aimed to evaluate the efficacy and safety of generic sofosbuvir/ledipasvir (SOF/LDV) in a real-life clinical experience.

Methods

In this prospective cohort study, patients with chronic HCV infection who referred to Middle East Liver Diseases (MELD) Center were included. Based on the patients' condition, they were treated with SOF/LDV fixed-dose combination with or without ribavirin (RBV) for 12 or 24 weeks.

Results

A total of 30 (M/F: 19/11) patients with chronic HCV genotype 1 infection with a mean age of 49.8 years were treated with generic SOF/LDV with (9 patients) or without (11 patients) RBV for 12 (27 patients) or 24 (3 patients) weeks. Ten (33.3%) had cirrhosis and 13 (43.3%) with a previous history of treatment with interferon (IFN)-based regimens. Among the 30 patients, 26 (86.7%, 95% CI=70.3%-94.7%) achieved a rapid virologic response, 30 (100%, 95% CI=88.7%-100%) achieved the end of treatment response and 30 (100%, 95% CI=88.7%-100%) achieved a sustained virologic response. No severe treatment adverse event was observed however, 6 (20%) patients experienced mild to moderate adverse events.

Conclusion

The treatment of HCV genotype 1 infection with generic SOF/LDV found to be safe and effective even in patients with cirrhosis and previous history of treatment with IFN-based treatments.

Serum cytokines, adipokines and ferritin for non-invasive assessment of liver fibrosis in chronic liver disease: a systematic review

Chronic liver disease (CLD) is a major health problem worldwide. Non-alcoholic fatty liver disease (NAFLD), chronic hepatitis C (CHC), chronic hepatitis B (CHB), and alcoholic liver disease (ALD) are the most common etiologies of CLD. Liver biopsy is the gold standard for assessment of liver fibrosis, however, it is an invasive method. This review attempts to evaluate the usefulness of serum adiponectin, serum leptin, serum ferritin, serum transforming growth factor-β1 (TGF-β1), and serum platelet derived growth factor-BB (PDGF-BB) as non-invasive markers in the diagnosis of liver fibrosis/cirrhosis. A systematic search in MEDLINE, Web of Science, Scopus, and local databases was performed to identify articles published in English or Persian as of November 2017. Studies conducted among CLD patients, with biopsy proven fibrosis/cirrhosis, and providing sufficient details of patients' clinicopathological characteristics were included. In the 95 studies included, there were a total of 15,548 CLD patients. More than 83% of studies were carried out in Asia and Europe. The relationship between liver fibrosis/cirrhosis and serum levels of ferritin, adiponectin, leptin, TGF-β1, and PDGF-BB was assessed in 42, 33, 27, nine, and three studies, respectively. Serum levels of the markers, particularly ferritin, could successfully predict liver fibrosis/cirrhosis, however, these data might not be clinically replicated and further studies are needed.

Global, Regional, and National Cancer Incidence, Mortality, Years of Life Lost, Years Lived With Disability, and Disability-Adjusted Life-Years for 29 Cancer Groups, 1990 to 2017: A Systematic Analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study

Importance

Cancer and other noncommunicable diseases (NCDs) are now widely recognized as a threat to global development. The latest United Nations high-level meeting on NCDs reaffirmed this observation and also highlighted the slow progress in meeting the 2011 Political Declaration on the Prevention and Control of Noncommunicable Diseases and the third Sustainable Development Goal. Lack of situational analyses, priority setting, and budgeting have been identified as major obstacles in achieving these goals. All of these have in common that they require information on the local cancer epidemiology. The Global Burden of Disease (GBD) study is uniquely poised to provide these crucial data.

Objective

To describe cancer burden for 29 cancer groups in 195 countries from 1990 through 2017 to provide data needed for cancer control planning.

Evidence Review

We used the GBD study estimation methods to describe cancer incidence, mortality, years lived with disability, years of life lost, and disability-adjusted life-years (DALYs). Results are presented at the national level as well as by Socio-demographic Index (SDI), a composite indicator of income, educational attainment, and total fertility rate. We also analyzed the influence of the epidemiological vs the demographic transition on cancer incidence.

Findings

In 2017, there were 24.5 million incident cancer cases worldwide (16.8 million without nonmelanoma skin cancer [NMSC]) and 9.6 million cancer deaths. The majority of cancer DALYs came from years of life lost (97%), and only 3% came from years lived with disability. The odds of developing cancer were the lowest in the low SDI quintile (1 in 7) and the highest in the high SDI quintile (1 in 2) for both sexes. In 2017, the most common incident cancers in men were NMSC (4.3 million incident cases); tracheal, bronchus, and lung (TBL) cancer (1.5 million incident cases); and prostate cancer (1.3 million incident cases). The most common causes of cancer deaths and DALYs for men were TBL cancer (1.3 million deaths and 28.4 million DALYs), liver cancer (572 000 deaths and 15.2 million DALYs), and stomach cancer (542 000 deaths and 12.2 million DALYs). For women in 2017, the most common incident cancers were NMSC (3.3 million incident cases), breast cancer (1.9 million incident cases), and colorectal cancer (819 000 incident cases). The leading causes of cancer deaths and DALYs for women were breast cancer (601 000 deaths and 17.4 million DALYs), TBL cancer (596 000 deaths and 12.6 million DALYs), and colorectal cancer (414 000 deaths and 8.3 million DALYs).

Conclusions and Relevance

The national epidemiological profiles of cancer burden in the GBD study show large heterogeneities, which are a reflection of different exposures to risk factors, economic settings, lifestyles, and access to care and screening. The GBD study can be used by policy makers and other stakeholders to develop and improve national and local cancer control in order to achieve the global targets and improve equity in cancer care.

Drug use and risk behaviour profile, and the prevalence of HIV, hepatitis C and hepatitis B among people with methamphetamine use in Iran

BACKGROUND

Stimulants substances use, particularly methamphetamine use, is increasing globally, including in Iran. This study assessed the drug use and risk behaviour profile, and prevalence of HIV, hepatitis C virus (HCV), and hepatitis B virus (HBV) among a large population using methamphetamine as their primary drug in Iran.

METHODS

This cross-sectional study was conducted in eight provinces of Iran. Individuals using methamphetamine for ≥3 months during the past three years, with no life-time history of injecting opioid drugs were enrolled. Drug use and risk behaviour data were collected through interviews. Blood samples were tested for HIV antibodies (HIV Ab), HCV antibodies (HCV Ab), and HBV surface antigen (HBs Ag).

RESULT

Among 567 participated, 84% were men and mean age was 36 years. Smoking with pipe was the most common method of methamphetamine use (53%), while 13% had a history of injecting methamphetamine, among whom 30% shared needles or syringes. Among those having sex during intoxication phase (n = 270), 48% never used condom. The prevalence of HIV Ab, HCV Ab and HBs Ag was 6.7% (95%CI: 4.7-9.1), 19.4% (95%CI: 16.2-22.9) and 1.4% (95%CI: 0.6-2.7), respectively. Age ≥ 30 years (adjusted OR [aOR]: 2.10, 95%CI: 1.18-3.76), lower education (high school vs. tertiary education, aOR: 13.95, 95%CI: 1.90-102.60), and injecting methamphetamine (aOR: 1.92, 95%CI 1.10-3.35) were significantly associated with HCV exposure. No factor was found associated with HIV infection. Among those reporting no potential injecting or sexual risk factors, 19.8% and 6.8% have HCV Ab positive and HIV Ab positive, respectively.

CONCLUSION

High prevalence of injecting and sexual risk behaviours, HIV infection and HCV exposure were found among individuals using methamphetamine as their primary drug, demonstrating them as an emerging population at risk of HIV and HCV in Iran. Targeted screening and harm reduction programs for this population are required.

Association of PNPLA3 rs738409 polymorphism with liver steatosis but not with cirrhosis in patients with HBV infection: Systematic review with meta-analysis

BACKGROUND

Hepatitis B virus (HBV) infection is a worldwide health issue and is well known for being the main cause of developing secondary liver complications such as cirrhosis and hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC). The PNPLA3 rs738409 polymorphism has been investigated conclusively with occurrence risk of steatosis and cirrhosis. Therefore, performing a meta-analysis of the available studies with the aim of clarifying the association between rs738409 and occurrence risk of steatosis and cirrhosis among HBV-infected patients would be helpful.

METHODS

Chronic HBV infection was defined as the persistence of HBsAg for more than 6 months. To gather sufficient data for this meta-analysis, reliable databases were conclusively searched using appropriate keywords. Only studies that satisfied the inclusion criteria were enrolled in the present study.

RESULTS

This meta-analysis pooled four studies with 1135 cases of chronic hepatitis B (CHB) to evaluate the impact of PNPLA3 SNP on liver steatosis and also pooled five studies with 3713 cases of CHB to evaluate the impact of PNPLA3 SNP on cirrhosis. The association of rs738409 with each complication was investigated. The rs738409 was found to be associated with steatosis in recessive [p = 4.57 × 10^-6 , odds ratio (OR) = 2.85], dominant (p = 4.35 × 10^-6 , OR = 1.84), co-dominant (p = 6.18 × 10^-8 ; OR = 3.74) and allelic (p = 9.79 × 10^-9 ; OR = 1.78) models. No association was found between rs738409 and cirrhosis development in recessive (p = 0.99, OR = 1.00), dominant (p = 0.30, OR = 0.92), co-dominant (p = 0.74; OR = 0.96) and allelic (p = 0.45; OR = 0.96) models.

CONCLUSIONS

Although the PNPLA3 rs738409 G allele has been associated with the risk of steatosis in CHB patients, no association between this polymorphism and the risk of cirrhosis was seen.

Pooled Prevalence of NS5A Resistance-Associated Substitutions in Chronic HCV Genotype 3 Infection: A Study Based on Deposited Sequences in GenBank

Using direct-acting antiviral agents (DAAs) against hepatitis C virus (HCV) infection results in a high treatment response rate. However, several factors can significantly alter this outcome such as resistance-associated substitutions (RASs) in HCV NS5A gene. This study aimed to evaluate the prevalence of naturally occurring RASs of NS5A in HCV genotype 3 (HCV-3) sequences isolated from individuals with chronic HCV-3 infection. All the registered sequences in the GenBank under "NS5A" AND "Hepacivirus C" query were evaluated and screened, those which followed our inclusion criteria were enrolled in our pooled analysis. The retrieved sequences of included studies were evaluated for substitutions, RASs, and RASs conferring >100 resistance fold change (RASs >100 × ) in NS5A amino acid positions 24, 28, 30, 31, 62, 92, and 93. From 7 enrolled studies, a total of 370 HCV-3a isolates were retrieved and investigated. Forty-eight (13.0%, 95% CI = 9.9-16.8%) isolates harbored NS5A RASs. Moreover, Y93H was the only NS5A RAS >100 × observed in 13 (3.5%, 95% CI = 2.0-5.9%) retrieved sequences. The low frequency of naturally occurring NS5A RASs, especially those with clinical relevance (RASs >100 × ), among individuals with HCV-3 infection and the high rate of treatment response to DAAs suggest not to investigate every individual with HCV-3 infection for NS5A RASs before treatment.

Performance of a rapid diagnostic test for screening of hepatitis C in a real-life prison setting

BACKGROUND

Hepatitis C virus (HCV) point-of-care testing using rapid diagnostic test (RDT) is the solution for large-scale, feasible, fast and reliable screening of HCV infection.

OBJECTIVES

The aim of this study was to evaluate the diagnostic performance of HCV RDT for screening of HCV infection in a real-life prison setting.

STUDY DESIGN

This study was conducted on individuals admitted and incarcerated in the Central Prison of Karaj, 2017-2018. For all inmates, anti-HCV testing using a RDT on finger-stick blood in the prison and ELISA at the laboratory were performed. For evaluation of reproducibility, more than 1000 cases were recruited for re-evaluation of the HCV RDT using anticoagulated blood in the laboratory.

RESULTS

Among 1788 participants, 76 (4.25%) and 106 (5.93%) were positive for anti-HCV using RDT and ELISA, respectively. Among 34 cases with discordant results using the RDT and ELISA, 17 were the result of testing error in prison, 7 false positive of ELISA and 10 false negative of RDT in individuals with HCV spontaneous clearance. The sensitivity of the RDT with inclusion of testing error in prison for detection of anti-HCV was 75%. However, with exclusion of testing error in prison and considering HCV RNA as the reference method for diagnosis of current HCV infection the sensitivity reached 100%. The RDT was 100% reproducible using both evaluations in prison and the laboratory.

CONCLUSIONS

The RDT is a reliable and feasible method for screening of anti-HCV in settings such as a prison. However, the testing should be performed in a standard procedure to have the optimal diagnostic performance.

Global, regional, and national age-sex-specific mortality and life expectancy, 1950-2017: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2017

BACKGROUND

Assessments of age-specific mortality and life expectancy have been done by the UN Population Division, Department of Economics and Social Affairs (UNPOP), the United States Census Bureau, WHO, and as part of previous iterations of the Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study (GBD). Previous iterations of the GBD used population estimates from UNPOP, which were not derived in a way that was internally consistent with the estimates of the numbers of deaths in the GBD. The present iteration of the GBD, GBD 2017, improves on previous assessments and provides timely estimates of the mortality experience of populations globally.

METHODS

The GBD uses all available data to produce estimates of mortality rates between 1950 and 2017 for 23 age groups, both sexes, and 918 locations, including 195 countries and territories and subnational locations for 16 countries. Data used include vital registration systems, sample registration systems, household surveys (complete birth histories, summary birth histories, sibling histories), censuses (summary birth histories, household deaths), and Demographic Surveillance Sites. In total, this analysis used 8259 data sources. Estimates of the probability of death between birth and the age of 5 years and between ages 15 and 60 years are generated and then input into a model life table system to produce complete life tables for all locations and years. Fatal discontinuities and mortality due to HIV/AIDS are analysed separately and then incorporated into the estimation. We analyse the relationship between age-specific mortality and development status using the Socio-demographic Index, a composite measure based on fertility under the age of 25 years, education, and income. There are four main methodological improvements in GBD 2017 compared with GBD 2016: 622 additional data sources have been incorporated; new estimates of population, generated by the GBD study, are used; statistical methods used in different components of the analysis have been further standardised and improved; and the analysis has been extended backwards in time by two decades to start in 1950.

FINDINGS

Globally, 18·7% (95% uncertainty interval 18·4-19·0) of deaths were registered in 1950 and that proportion has been steadily increasing since, with 58·8% (58·2-59·3) of all deaths being registered in 2015. At the global level, between 1950 and 2017, life expectancy increased from 48·1 years (46·5-49·6) to 70·5 years (70·1-70·8) for men and from 52·9 years (51·7-54·0) to 75·6 years (75·3-75·9) for women. Despite this overall progress, there remains substantial variation in life expectancy at birth in 2017, which ranges from 49·1 years (46·5-51·7) for men in the Central African Republic to 87·6 years (86·9-88·1) among women in Singapore. The greatest progress across age groups was for children younger than 5 years; under-5 mortality dropped from 216·0 deaths (196·3-238·1) per 1000 livebirths in 1950 to 38·9 deaths (35·6-42·83) per 1000 livebirths in 2017, with huge reductions across countries. Nevertheless, there were still 5·4 million (5·2-5·6) deaths among children younger than 5 years in the world in 2017. Progress has been less pronounced and more variable for adults, especially for adult males, who had stagnant or increasing mortality rates in several countries. The gap between male and female life expectancy between 1950 and 2017, while relatively stable at the global level, shows distinctive patterns across super-regions and has consistently been the largest in central Europe, eastern Europe, and central Asia, and smallest in south Asia. Performance was also variable across countries and time in observed mortality rates compared with those expected on the basis of development.

INTERPRETATION

This analysis of age-sex-specific mortality shows that there are remarkably complex patterns in population mortality across countries. The findings of this study highlight global successes, such as the large decline in under-5 mortality, which reflects significant local, national, and global commitment and investment over several decades. However, they also bring attention to mortality patterns that are a cause for concern, particularly among adult men and, to a lesser extent, women, whose mortality rates have stagnated in many countries over the time period of this study, and in some cases are increasing.

FUNDING

Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation.

Global, regional, and national incidence, prevalence, and years lived with disability for 354 diseases and injuries for 195 countries and territories, 1990-2017: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2017

BACKGROUND

The Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study 2017 (GBD 2017) includes a comprehensive assessment of incidence, prevalence, and years lived with disability (YLDs) for 354 causes in 195 countries and territories from 1990 to 2017. Previous GBD studies have shown how the decline of mortality rates from 1990 to 2016 has led to an increase in life expectancy, an ageing global population, and an expansion of the non-fatal burden of disease and injury. These studies have also shown how a substantial portion of the world's population experiences non-fatal health loss with considerable heterogeneity among different causes, locations, ages, and sexes. Ongoing objectives of the GBD study include increasing the level of estimation detail, improving analytical strategies, and increasing the amount of high-quality data.

METHODS

We estimated incidence and prevalence for 354 diseases and injuries and 3484 sequelae. We used an updated and extensive body of literature studies, survey data, surveillance data, inpatient admission records, outpatient visit records, and health insurance claims, and additionally used results from cause of death models to inform estimates using a total of 68 781 data sources. Newly available clinical data from India, Iran, Japan, Jordan, Nepal, China, Brazil, Norway, and Italy were incorporated, as well as updated claims data from the USA and new claims data from Taiwan (province of China) and Singapore. We used DisMod-MR 2.1, a Bayesian meta-regression tool, as the main method of estimation, ensuring consistency between rates of incidence, prevalence, remission, and cause of death for each condition. YLDs were estimated as the product of a prevalence estimate and a disability weight for health states of each mutually exclusive sequela, adjusted for comorbidity. We updated the Socio-demographic Index (SDI), a summary development indicator of income per capita, years of schooling, and total fertility rate. Additionally, we calculated differences between male and female YLDs to identify divergent trends across sexes. GBD 2017 complies with the Guidelines for Accurate and Transparent Health Estimates Reporting.

FINDINGS

Globally, for females, the causes with the greatest age-standardised prevalence were oral disorders, headache disorders, and haemoglobinopathies and haemolytic anaemias in both 1990 and 2017. For males, the causes with the greatest age-standardised prevalence were oral disorders, headache disorders, and tuberculosis including latent tuberculosis infection in both 1990 and 2017. In terms of YLDs, low back pain, headache disorders, and dietary iron deficiency were the leading Level 3 causes of YLD counts in 1990, whereas low back pain, headache disorders, and depressive disorders were the leading causes in 2017 for both sexes combined. All-cause age-standardised YLD rates decreased by 3·9% (95% uncertainty interval [UI] 3·1-4·6) from 1990 to 2017; however, the all-age YLD rate increased by 7·2% (6·0-8·4) while the total sum of global YLDs increased from 562 million (421-723) to 853 million (642-1100). The increases for males and females were similar, with increases in all-age YLD rates of 7·9% (6·6-9·2) for males and 6·5% (5·4-7·7) for females. We found significant differences between males and females in terms of age-standardised prevalence estimates for multiple causes. The causes with the greatest relative differences between sexes in 2017 included substance use disorders (3018 cases [95% UI 2782-3252] per 100 000 in males vs s1400 [1279-1524] per 100 000 in females), transport injuries (3322 [3082-3583] vs 2336 [2154-2535]), and self-harm and interpersonal violence (3265 [2943-3630] vs 5643 [5057-6302]).

INTERPRETATION

Global all-cause age-standardised YLD rates have improved only slightly over a period spanning nearly three decades. However, the magnitude of the non-fatal disease burden has expanded globally, with increasing numbers of people who have a wide spectrum of conditions. A subset of conditions has remained globally pervasive since 1990, whereas other conditions have displayed more dynamic trends, with different ages, sexes, and geographies across the globe experiencing varying burdens and trends of health loss. This study emphasises how global improvements in premature mortality for select conditions have led to older populations with complex and potentially expensive diseases, yet also highlights global achievements in certain domains of disease and injury.

FUNDING

Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation.

Measuring progress from 1990 to 2017 and projecting attainment to 2030 of the health-related Sustainable Development Goals for 195 countries and territories: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2017

BACKGROUND

Efforts to establish the 2015 baseline and monitor early implementation of the UN Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs) highlight both great potential for and threats to improving health by 2030. To fully deliver on the SDG aim of "leaving no one behind", it is increasingly important to examine the health-related SDGs beyond national-level estimates. As part of the Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study 2017 (GBD 2017), we measured progress on 41 of 52 health-related SDG indicators and estimated the health-related SDG index for 195 countries and territories for the period 1990-2017, projected indicators to 2030, and analysed global attainment.

METHODS

We measured progress on 41 health-related SDG indicators from 1990 to 2017, an increase of four indicators since GBD 2016 (new indicators were health worker density, sexual violence by non-intimate partners, population census status, and prevalence of physical and sexual violence [reported separately]). We also improved the measurement of several previously reported indicators. We constructed national-level estimates and, for a subset of health-related SDGs, examined indicator-level differences by sex and Socio-demographic Index (SDI) quintile. We also did subnational assessments of performance for selected countries. To construct the health-related SDG index, we transformed the value for each indicator on a scale of 0-100, with 0 as the 2·5th percentile and 100 as the 97·5th percentile of 1000 draws calculated from 1990 to 2030, and took the geometric mean of the scaled indicators by target. To generate projections through 2030, we used a forecasting framework that drew estimates from the broader GBD study and used weighted averages of indicator-specific and country-specific annualised rates of change from 1990 to 2017 to inform future estimates. We assessed attainment of indicators with defined targets in two ways: first, using mean values projected for 2030, and then using the probability of attainment in 2030 calculated from 1000 draws. We also did a global attainment analysis of the feasibility of attaining SDG targets on the basis of past trends. Using 2015 global averages of indicators with defined SDG targets, we calculated the global annualised rates of change required from 2015 to 2030 to meet these targets, and then identified in what percentiles the required global annualised rates of change fell in the distribution of country-level rates of change from 1990 to 2015. We took the mean of these global percentile values across indicators and applied the past rate of change at this mean global percentile to all health-related SDG indicators, irrespective of target definition, to estimate the equivalent 2030 global average value and percentage change from 2015 to 2030 for each indicator.

FINDINGS

The global median health-related SDG index in 2017 was 59·4 (IQR 35·4-67·3), ranging from a low of 11·6 (95% uncertainty interval 9·6-14·0) to a high of 84·9 (83·1-86·7). SDG index values in countries assessed at the subnational level varied substantially, particularly in China and India, although scores in Japan and the UK were more homogeneous. Indicators also varied by SDI quintile and sex, with males having worse outcomes than females for non-communicable disease (NCD) mortality, alcohol use, and smoking, among others. Most countries were projected to have a higher health-related SDG index in 2030 than in 2017, while country-level probabilities of attainment by 2030 varied widely by indicator. Under-5 mortality, neonatal mortality, maternal mortality ratio, and malaria indicators had the most countries with at least 95% probability of target attainment. Other indicators, including NCD mortality and suicide mortality, had no countries projected to meet corresponding SDG targets on the basis of projected mean values for 2030 but showed some probability of attainment by 2030. For some indicators, including child malnutrition, several infectious diseases, and most violence measures, the annualised rates of change required to meet SDG targets far exceeded the pace of progress achieved by any country in the recent past. We found that applying the mean global annualised rate of change to indicators without defined targets would equate to about 19% and 22% reductions in global smoking and alcohol consumption, respectively; a 47% decline in adolescent birth rates; and a more than 85% increase in health worker density per 1000 population by 2030.

INTERPRETATION

The GBD study offers a unique, robust platform for monitoring the health-related SDGs across demographic and geographic dimensions. Our findings underscore the importance of increased collection and analysis of disaggregated data and highlight where more deliberate design or targeting of interventions could accelerate progress in attaining the SDGs. Current projections show that many health-related SDG indicators, NCDs, NCD-related risks, and violence-related indicators will require a concerted shift away from what might have driven past gains-curative interventions in the case of NCDs-towards multisectoral, prevention-oriented policy action and investments to achieve SDG aims. Notably, several targets, if they are to be met by 2030, demand a pace of progress that no country has achieved in the recent past. The future is fundamentally uncertain, and no model can fully predict what breakthroughs or events might alter the course of the SDGs. What is clear is that our actions-or inaction-today will ultimately dictate how close the world, collectively, can get to leaving no one behind by 2030.

FUNDING

Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation.

Global, regional, and national comparative risk assessment of 84 behavioural, environmental and occupational, and metabolic risks or clusters of risks for 195 countries and territories, 1990-2017: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2017

BACKGROUND

The Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study (GBD) 2017 comparative risk assessment (CRA) is a comprehensive approach to risk factor quantification that offers a useful tool for synthesising evidence on risks and risk-outcome associations. With each annual GBD study, we update the GBD CRA to incorporate improved methods, new risks and risk-outcome pairs, and new data on risk exposure levels and risk-outcome associations.

METHODS

We used the CRA framework developed for previous iterations of GBD to estimate levels and trends in exposure, attributable deaths, and attributable disability-adjusted life-years (DALYs), by age group, sex, year, and location for 84 behavioural, environmental and occupational, and metabolic risks or groups of risks from 1990 to 2017. This study included 476 risk-outcome pairs that met the GBD study criteria for convincing or probable evidence of causation. We extracted relative risk and exposure estimates from 46 749 randomised controlled trials, cohort studies, household surveys, census data, satellite data, and other sources. We used statistical models to pool data, adjust for bias, and incorporate covariates. Using the counterfactual scenario of theoretical minimum risk exposure level (TMREL), we estimated the portion of deaths and DALYs that could be attributed to a given risk. We explored the relationship between development and risk exposure by modelling the relationship between the Socio-demographic Index (SDI) and risk-weighted exposure prevalence and estimated expected levels of exposure and risk-attributable burden by SDI. Finally, we explored temporal changes in risk-attributable DALYs by decomposing those changes into six main component drivers of change as follows: (1) population growth; (2) changes in population age structures; (3) changes in exposure to environmental and occupational risks; (4) changes in exposure to behavioural risks; (5) changes in exposure to metabolic risks; and (6) changes due to all other factors, approximated as the risk-deleted death and DALY rates, where the risk-deleted rate is the rate that would be observed had we reduced the exposure levels to the TMREL for all risk factors included in GBD 2017.

FINDINGS

In 2017, 34·1 million (95% uncertainty interval [UI] 33·3-35·0) deaths and 1·21 billion (1·14-1·28) DALYs were attributable to GBD risk factors. Globally, 61·0% (59·6-62·4) of deaths and 48·3% (46·3-50·2) of DALYs were attributed to the GBD 2017 risk factors. When ranked by risk-attributable DALYs, high systolic blood pressure (SBP) was the leading risk factor, accounting for 10·4 million (9·39-11·5) deaths and 218 million (198-237) DALYs, followed by smoking (7·10 million [6·83-7·37] deaths and 182 million [173-193] DALYs), high fasting plasma glucose (6·53 million [5·23-8·23] deaths and 171 million [144-201] DALYs), high body-mass index (BMI; 4·72 million [2·99-6·70] deaths and 148 million [98·6-202] DALYs), and short gestation for birthweight (1·43 million [1·36-1·51] deaths and 139 million [131-147] DALYs). In total, risk-attributable DALYs declined by 4·9% (3·3-6·5) between 2007 and 2017. In the absence of demographic changes (ie, population growth and ageing), changes in risk exposure and risk-deleted DALYs would have led to a 23·5% decline in DALYs during that period. Conversely, in the absence of changes in risk exposure and risk-deleted DALYs, demographic changes would have led to an 18·6% increase in DALYs during that period. The ratios of observed risk exposure levels to exposure levels expected based on SDI (O/E ratios) increased globally for unsafe drinking water and household air pollution between 1990 and 2017. This result suggests that development is occurring more rapidly than are changes in the underlying risk structure in a population. Conversely, nearly universal declines in O/E ratios for smoking and alcohol use indicate that, for a given SDI, exposure to these risks is declining. In 2017, the leading Level 4 risk factor for age-standardised DALY rates was high SBP in four super-regions: central Europe, eastern Europe, and central Asia; north Africa and Middle East; south Asia; and southeast Asia, east Asia, and Oceania. The leading risk factor in the high-income super-region was smoking, in Latin America and Caribbean was high BMI, and in sub-Saharan Africa was unsafe sex. O/E ratios for unsafe sex in sub-Saharan Africa were notably high, and those for alcohol use in north Africa and the Middle East were notably low.

INTERPRETATION

By quantifying levels and trends in exposures to risk factors and the resulting disease burden, this assessment offers insight into where past policy and programme efforts might have been successful and highlights current priorities for public health action. Decreases in behavioural, environmental, and occupational risks have largely offset the effects of population growth and ageing, in relation to trends in absolute burden. Conversely, the combination of increasing metabolic risks and population ageing will probably continue to drive the increasing trends in non-communicable diseases at the global level, which presents both a public health challenge and opportunity. We see considerable spatiotemporal heterogeneity in levels of risk exposure and risk-attributable burden. Although levels of development underlie some of this heterogeneity, O/E ratios show risks for which countries are overperforming or underperforming relative to their level of development. As such, these ratios provide a benchmarking tool to help to focus local decision making. Our findings reinforce the importance of both risk exposure monitoring and epidemiological research to assess causal connections between risks and health outcomes, and they highlight the usefulness of the GBD study in synthesising data to draw comprehensive and robust conclusions that help to inform good policy and strategic health planning.

FUNDING

Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation.

Global, regional, and national incidence, prevalence, and years lived with disability for 354 diseases and injuries for 195 countries and territories, 1990-2017: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2017

BACKGROUND

The Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study 2017 (GBD 2017) includes a comprehensive assessment of incidence, prevalence, and years lived with disability (YLDs) for 354 causes in 195 countries and territories from 1990 to 2017. Previous GBD studies have shown how the decline of mortality rates from 1990 to 2016 has led to an increase in life expectancy, an ageing global population, and an expansion of the non-fatal burden of disease and injury. These studies have also shown how a substantial portion of the world's population experiences non-fatal health loss with considerable heterogeneity among different causes, locations, ages, and sexes. Ongoing objectives of the GBD study include increasing the level of estimation detail, improving analytical strategies, and increasing the amount of high-quality data.

METHODS

We estimated incidence and prevalence for 354 diseases and injuries and 3484 sequelae. We used an updated and extensive body of literature studies, survey data, surveillance data, inpatient admission records, outpatient visit records, and health insurance claims, and additionally used results from cause of death models to inform estimates using a total of 68 781 data sources. Newly available clinical data from India, Iran, Japan, Jordan, Nepal, China, Brazil, Norway, and Italy were incorporated, as well as updated claims data from the USA and new claims data from Taiwan (province of China) and Singapore. We used DisMod-MR 2.1, a Bayesian meta-regression tool, as the main method of estimation, ensuring consistency between rates of incidence, prevalence, remission, and cause of death for each condition. YLDs were estimated as the product of a prevalence estimate and a disability weight for health states of each mutually exclusive sequela, adjusted for comorbidity. We updated the Socio-demographic Index (SDI), a summary development indicator of income per capita, years of schooling, and total fertility rate. Additionally, we calculated differences between male and female YLDs to identify divergent trends across sexes. GBD 2017 complies with the Guidelines for Accurate and Transparent Health Estimates Reporting.

FINDINGS

Globally, for females, the causes with the greatest age-standardised prevalence were oral disorders, headache disorders, and haemoglobinopathies and haemolytic anaemias in both 1990 and 2017. For males, the causes with the greatest age-standardised prevalence were oral disorders, headache disorders, and tuberculosis including latent tuberculosis infection in both 1990 and 2017. In terms of YLDs, low back pain, headache disorders, and dietary iron deficiency were the leading Level 3 causes of YLD counts in 1990, whereas low back pain, headache disorders, and depressive disorders were the leading causes in 2017 for both sexes combined. All-cause age-standardised YLD rates decreased by 3·9% (95% uncertainty interval [UI] 3·1-4·6) from 1990 to 2017; however, the all-age YLD rate increased by 7·2% (6·0-8·4) while the total sum of global YLDs increased from 562 million (421-723) to 853 million (642-1100). The increases for males and females were similar, with increases in all-age YLD rates of 7·9% (6·6-9·2) for males and 6·5% (5·4-7·7) for females. We found significant differences between males and females in terms of age-standardised prevalence estimates for multiple causes. The causes with the greatest relative differences between sexes in 2017 included substance use disorders (3018 cases [95% UI 2782-3252] per 100 000 in males vs s1400 [1279-1524] per 100 000 in females), transport injuries (3322 [3082-3583] vs 2336 [2154-2535]), and self-harm and interpersonal violence (3265 [2943-3630] vs 5643 [5057-6302]).

INTERPRETATION

Global all-cause age-standardised YLD rates have improved only slightly over a period spanning nearly three decades. However, the magnitude of the non-fatal disease burden has expanded globally, with increasing numbers of people who have a wide spectrum of conditions. A subset of conditions has remained globally pervasive since 1990, whereas other conditions have displayed more dynamic trends, with different ages, sexes, and geographies across the globe experiencing varying burdens and trends of health loss. This study emphasises how global improvements in premature mortality for select conditions have led to older populations with complex and potentially expensive diseases, yet also highlights global achievements in certain domains of disease and injury.

FUNDING

Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation.

Population and fertility by age and sex for 195 countries and territories, 1950-2017: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2017

BACKGROUND

Population estimates underpin demographic and epidemiological research and are used to track progress on numerous international indicators of health and development. To date, internationally available estimates of population and fertility, although useful, have not been produced with transparent and replicable methods and do not use standardised estimates of mortality. We present single-calendar year and single-year of age estimates of fertility and population by sex with standardised and replicable methods.

METHODS

We estimated population in 195 locations by single year of age and single calendar year from 1950 to 2017 with standardised and replicable methods. We based the estimates on the demographic balancing equation, with inputs of fertility, mortality, population, and migration data. Fertility data came from 7817 location-years of vital registration data, 429 surveys reporting complete birth histories, and 977 surveys and censuses reporting summary birth histories. We estimated age-specific fertility rates (ASFRs; the annual number of livebirths to women of a specified age group per 1000 women in that age group) by use of spatiotemporal Gaussian process regression and used the ASFRs to estimate total fertility rates (TFRs; the average number of children a woman would bear if she survived through the end of the reproductive age span [age 10-54 years] and experienced at each age a particular set of ASFRs observed in the year of interest). Because of sparse data, fertility at ages 10-14 years and 50-54 years was estimated from data on fertility in women aged 15-19 years and 45-49 years, through use of linear regression. Age-specific mortality data came from the Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study (GBD) 2017 estimates. Data on population came from 1257 censuses and 761 population registry location-years and were adjusted for underenumeration and age misreporting with standard demographic methods. Migration was estimated with the GBD Bayesian demographic balancing model, after incorporating information about refugee migration into the model prior. Final population estimates used the cohort-component method of population projection, with inputs of fertility, mortality, and migration data. Population uncertainty was estimated by use of out-of-sample predictive validity testing. With these data, we estimated the trends in population by age and sex and in fertility by age between 1950 and 2017 in 195 countries and territories.

FINDINGS

From 1950 to 2017, TFRs decreased by 49·4% (95% uncertainty interval [UI] 46·4-52·0). The TFR decreased from 4·7 livebirths (4·5-4·9) to 2·4 livebirths (2·2-2·5), and the ASFR of mothers aged 10-19 years decreased from 37 livebirths (34-40) to 22 livebirths (19-24) per 1000 women. Despite reductions in the TFR, the global population has been increasing by an average of 83·8 million people per year since 1985. The global population increased by 197·2% (193·3-200·8) since 1950, from 2·6 billion (2·5-2·6) to 7·6 billion (7·4-7·9) people in 2017; much of this increase was in the proportion of the global population in south Asia and sub-Saharan Africa. The global annual rate of population growth increased between 1950 and 1964, when it peaked at 2·0%; this rate then remained nearly constant until 1970 and then decreased to 1·1% in 2017. Population growth rates in the southeast Asia, east Asia, and Oceania GBD super-region decreased from 2·5% in 1963 to 0·7% in 2017, whereas in sub-Saharan Africa, population growth rates were almost at the highest reported levels ever in 2017, when they were at 2·7%. The global average age increased from 26·6 years in 1950 to 32·1 years in 2017, and the proportion of the population that is of working age (age 15-64 years) increased from 59·9% to 65·3%. At the national level, the TFR decreased in all countries and territories between 1950 and 2017; in 2017, TFRs ranged from a low of 1·0 livebirths (95% UI 0·9-1·2) in Cyprus to a high of 7·1 livebirths (6·8-7·4) in Niger. The TFR under age 25 years (TFU25; number of livebirths expected by age 25 years for a hypothetical woman who survived the age group and was exposed to current ASFRs) in 2017 ranged from 0·08 livebirths (0·07-0·09) in South Korea to 2·4 livebirths (2·2-2·6) in Niger, and the TFR over age 30 years (TFO30; number of livebirths expected for a hypothetical woman ageing from 30 to 54 years who survived the age group and was exposed to current ASFRs) ranged from a low of 0·3 livebirths (0·3-0·4) in Puerto Rico to a high of 3·1 livebirths (3·0-3·2) in Niger. TFO30 was higher than TFU25 in 145 countries and territories in 2017. 33 countries had a negative population growth rate from 2010 to 2017, most of which were located in central, eastern, and western Europe, whereas population growth rates of more than 2·0% were seen in 33 of 46 countries in sub-Saharan Africa. In 2017, less than 65% of the national population was of working age in 12 of 34 high-income countries, and less than 50% of the national population was of working age in Mali, Chad, and Niger.

INTERPRETATION

Population trends create demographic dividends and headwinds (ie, economic benefits and detriments) that affect national economies and determine national planning needs. Although TFRs are decreasing, the global population continues to grow as mortality declines, with diverse patterns at the national level and across age groups. To our knowledge, this is the first study to provide transparent and replicable estimates of population and fertility, which can be used to inform decision making and to monitor progress.

FUNDING

Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation.

Prevalence of hepatitis C virus NS5A resistance-associated substitutions in chronic infection with genotype 1: A pooled analysis based on deposited sequences in GenBank

INTRODUCTION

Resistance-associated substitutions (RASs) in the NS5A gene of hepatitis C virus (HCV) has been studied as one of the predictors of response to NS5A inhibitor-containing regimens. This study aimed to evaluate the prevalence of pre-treatment naturally-occurring NS5A RASs in HCV isolates from patients with chronic HCV genotype 1 (HCV-1) infection retrieved from GenBank.

METHODS

In the search procedure, the studies with published HCV-1 NS5A sequence in GenBank were screened and evaluated for inclusion in the pooled analysis. The sequences of the included studies were retrieved from GenBank and evaluated for substitutions in amino acid positions24, 26, 28, 29, 30, 31, 32, 38, 58, 62, 92 and 93 of HCV NS5A including RASs and RASs conferring >100 resistance fold change (RASs >100X).

RESULTS

In the pooled analysis, 2409 isolates from patients with HCV-1 infection were included, consisting 1305 (54.2%) HCV-1a and 1104 (45.8%) HCV-1b isolates. The prevalence of NS5A RASs and RASs >100X were 16.0% (95%CI = 14.6%-17.5%) and 4.7% (95%CI = 3.9%-5.6%), respectively. The NS5A RASs were more frequently observed in HCV-1b isolates than in HCV-1a isolates (P < 0.001).

CONCLUSION

The naturally-occurring HCV NS5A RASs especially those with clinical relevance (RASs >100X) are observed in a small (4.7%) number of patients with HCV-1 infection.

Hepatitis C resistance to NS5A inhibitors: Is it going to be a problem?

Treatment of hepatitis C virus (HCV) infection has evolved greatly through the recent decade. The availability of direct-acting antiviral agents (DAAs) targeting the functional proteins of HCV has resulted in the introduction of DAA-based combination therapies, providing an optimal rate of treatment success. Among the DAAs, NS5A inhibitors are used in most of the introduced and approved HCV antiviral regimens. Resistance-associated substitutions (RASs) are amino acid substitutions in HCV protein sequences that result in decreased antiviral efficacy of the HCV DAAs. Among the HCV RASs, the NS5A RASs were found to effectively modify and decrease treatment response to NS5A inhibitor-containing regimens. As a baseline predictor of treatment response, NS5A RAS draws attention for pretreatment testing in targeted patient groups. Given NS5A RASs are either naturally-occurring or DAA-selected, the application of NS5A RAS testing can be considered in two settings of NS5A inhibitor-naïve patients and NS5A inhibitor-experienced patients. Less than 5% of NS5A inhibitor-naïve patients harbor naturally-occurring NS5A RAS with high resistance level (> 100X resistance fold-change). In NS5A inhibitor-naïve patients, NS5A RAS testing accompanied by treatment optimization cannot increase treatment response more than 2%-3%, while in NS5A inhibitor-experienced patients, > 75% are found to have NS5A RASs > 100X and NS5A RAS testing in this group of patients seems to be reasonable. This editorial will address the debate on the application of NS5A RAS testing and will discuss if the NS5A RAS testing has any role in clinical management of hepatitis C.

Measuring performance on the Healthcare Access and Quality Index for 195 countries and territories and selected subnational locations: a systematic analysis from the Global Burden of Disease Study 2016

BACKGROUND

A key component of achieving universal health coverage is ensuring that all populations have access to quality health care. Examining where gains have occurred or progress has faltered across and within countries is crucial to guiding decisions and strategies for future improvement. We used the Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study 2016 (GBD 2016) to assess personal health-care access and quality with the Healthcare Access and Quality (HAQ) Index for 195 countries and territories, as well as subnational locations in seven countries, from 1990 to 2016.

METHODS

Drawing from established methods and updated estimates from GBD 2016, we used 32 causes from which death should not occur in the presence of effective care to approximate personal health-care access and quality by location and over time. To better isolate potential effects of personal health-care access and quality from underlying risk factor patterns, we risk-standardised cause-specific deaths due to non-cancers by location-year, replacing the local joint exposure of environmental and behavioural risks with the global level of exposure. Supported by the expansion of cancer registry data in GBD 2016, we used mortality-to-incidence ratios for cancers instead of risk-standardised death rates to provide a stronger signal of the effects of personal health care and access on cancer survival. We transformed each cause to a scale of 0-100, with 0 as the first percentile (worst) observed between 1990 and 2016, and 100 as the 99th percentile (best); we set these thresholds at the country level, and then applied them to subnational locations. We applied a principal components analysis to construct the HAQ Index using all scaled cause values, providing an overall score of 0-100 of personal health-care access and quality by location over time. We then compared HAQ Index levels and trends by quintiles on the Socio-demographic Index (SDI), a summary measure of overall development. As derived from the broader GBD study and other data sources, we examined relationships between national HAQ Index scores and potential correlates of performance, such as total health spending per capita.

FINDINGS

In 2016, HAQ Index performance spanned from a high of 97·1 (95% UI 95·8-98·1) in Iceland, followed by 96·6 (94·9-97·9) in Norway and 96·1 (94·5-97·3) in the Netherlands, to values as low as 18·6 (13·1-24·4) in the Central African Republic, 19·0 (14·3-23·7) in Somalia, and 23·4 (20·2-26·8) in Guinea-Bissau. The pace of progress achieved between 1990 and 2016 varied, with markedly faster improvements occurring between 2000 and 2016 for many countries in sub-Saharan Africa and southeast Asia, whereas several countries in Latin America and elsewhere saw progress stagnate after experiencing considerable advances in the HAQ Index between 1990 and 2000. Striking subnational disparities emerged in personal health-care access and quality, with China and India having particularly large gaps between locations with the highest and lowest scores in 2016. In China, performance ranged from 91·5 (89·1-93·6) in Beijing to 48·0 (43·4-53·2) in Tibet (a 43·5-point difference), while India saw a 30·8-point disparity, from 64·8 (59·6-68·8) in Goa to 34·0 (30·3-38·1) in Assam. Japan recorded the smallest range in subnational HAQ performance in 2016 (a 4·8-point difference), whereas differences between subnational locations with the highest and lowest HAQ Index values were more than two times as high for the USA and three times as high for England. State-level gaps in the HAQ Index in Mexico somewhat narrowed from 1990 to 2016 (from a 20·9-point to 17·0-point difference), whereas in Brazil, disparities slightly increased across states during this time (a 17·2-point to 20·4-point difference). Performance on the HAQ Index showed strong linkages to overall development, with high and high-middle SDI countries generally having higher scores and faster gains for non-communicable diseases. Nonetheless, countries across the development spectrum saw substantial gains in some key health service areas from 2000 to 2016, most notably vaccine-preventable diseases. Overall, national performance on the HAQ Index was positively associated with higher levels of total health spending per capita, as well as health systems inputs, but these relationships were quite heterogeneous, particularly among low-to-middle SDI countries.

INTERPRETATION

GBD 2016 provides a more detailed understanding of past success and current challenges in improving personal health-care access and quality worldwide. Despite substantial gains since 2000, many low-SDI and middle-SDI countries face considerable challenges unless heightened policy action and investments focus on advancing access to and quality of health care across key health services, especially non-communicable diseases. Stagnating or minimal improvements experienced by several low-middle to high-middle SDI countries could reflect the complexities of re-orienting both primary and secondary health-care services beyond the more limited foci of the Millennium Development Goals. Alongside initiatives to strengthen public health programmes, the pursuit of universal health coverage hinges upon improving both access and quality worldwide, and thus requires adopting a more comprehensive view-and subsequent provision-of quality health care for all populations.

FUNDING

Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation.

A facile PCR-RFLP method for genotyping of ITPA rs1127354 and rs7270101 polymorphisms

BACKGROUND

Inosine triphosphate pyrophosphatase (ITPA) gene single nucleotide polymorphisms (SNPs), rs1127354 and rs7270101, may cause a functional impairment in ITPase enzyme, resulting anemia protection in patients with chronic hepatitis C virus (HCV) infection undergoing ribavirin (RBV)-dependent regimens. The main purpose of this study was to provide and validate a simple, rapid, and inexpensive polymerase chain reaction-restriction fragment length polymorphism (PCR-RFLP) technique for genotyping of ITPA rs1127354 and rs7270101 polymorphisms in chronic HCV-infected patients.

METHODS

In the current study, 100 Iranian patients with chronic hepatitis C were examined and genotyped for ITPA rs1127354 and rs7270101 gene polymorphisms. To genotype rs1127354 and rs7270101 polymorphisms, PCR-RFLP technique and sequencing technique were performed on these samples. To validate the PCR-RFLP method, the PCR-RFLP genotyping results should be 100% concordant with the PCR-sequencing results.

RESULTS

The rs1127354 and rs7270101 polymorphisms of ITPA gene were genotyped by PCR-RFLP technique and sequencing simultaneously, and the results of both techniques were 100% concordant in all 100 patients. Both PCR-RFLP and sequencing techniques indicated that the genotypic frequency of rs7270101 was 80% AA, 19% AC and 1% CC, and for rs1127354 was 79% CC, 20% CA and 1% AA, respectively.

CONCLUSION

We developed and validated a rapid and inexpensive PCR-RFLP technique for the detection of ITPA rs1127354 and rs7270101 gene polymorphisms.

A Simple PCR-RFLP Method for Genotyping of IFNL4 rs368234815 Polymorphism in Patients With Chronic Hepatitis C

BACKGROUND

The IFNL4 rs368234815 polymorphism plays a prominent role in spontaneous and treatment-induced clearance of hepatitis C virus (HCV) infection. This study aimed to develop a polymerase chain reaction-restriction fragment length polymorphism (PCR-RFLP) method for assessment of rs368234815 polymorphism.

METHODS

We genotyped the rs368234815 polymorphism in 87 patients with chronic HCV by PCR sequencing and PCR-RFLP methods, simultaneously.

RESULTS

Genotyping of IFNL4 rs368234815 via PCR-RFLP was concordant with PCR sequencing in all 87 individuals (100%). The analytical sensitivity and specificity of the developed PCR-RFLP method for genotyping of rs368234815 polymorphism were each 100%. Among these patients with chronic HCV, the frequency of rs368234815 TT/TT, TT/ΔG, and ΔG/ΔG were 44.8%, 37.9%, and 17.3%, respectively.

CONCLUSIONS

The PCR-RFLP method that we developed is accurate, rapid, inexpensive, and easy to perform for genotyping of the IFNL4 rs368234815 polymorphism. This method can be used for clinical and research work.

Molecular Tracing of Hepatitis C Virus Genotype 1 Isolates in Iran: A NS5B Phylogenetic Analysis with Systematic Review

CONTEXT

Hepatitis C virus (HCV) is characterized by a high degree of genetic heterogeneity and classified into 7 genotypes and different subtypes. It heterogeneously distributed through various risk groups and geographical regions. A well-established phylogenetic relationship can simplify the tracing of HCV hierarchical strata into geographical regions. The current study aimed to find genetic phylogeny of subtypes 1a and 1b of HCV isolates based on NS5B nucleotide sequences in Iran and other members of Eastern Mediterranean regional office of world health organization, as well as other Middle Eastern countries, with a systematic review of available published and unpublished studies.

EVIDENCE ACQUISITION

The phylogenetic analyses were performed based on the nucleotide sequences of NS5B gene of HCV genotype 1 (HCV-1), which were registered in the GenBank database. The literature review was performed in two steps: 1) searching studies evaluating the NS5B sequences of HCV-1, on PubMed, Scopus, and Web of Science, and 2) Searching sequences of unpublished studies registered in the GenBank database.

RESULTS

In this study, 442 sequences from HCV-1a and 232 from HCV-1b underwent phylogenetic analysis. Phylogenetic analysis of all sequences revealed different clusters in the phylogenetic trees. The results showed that the proportion of HCV-1a and -1b isolates from Iranian patients probably originated from domestic sources. Moreover, the HCV-1b isolates from Iranian patients may have similarities with the European ones.

CONCLUSIONS

In this study, phylogenetic reconstruction of HCV-1 sequences clearly indicated for molecular tracing and ancestral relationships of the HCV genotypes in Iran, and showed the likelihood of domestic origin for HCV-1a and various origin for HCV-1b.

Impact of IFNL4 rs12979860 and rs8099917 polymorphisms on response to Peg-Interferon-α and Ribavirin in patients with congenital bleeding disorder and chronic hepatitis C

BACKGROUND

The aim of this study was to determine whether two polymorphisms of the human interferon lambda 4 (IFNL4) gene (rs12979860 and rs8099917) can predict sustained virologic response (SVR) following antiviral therapy in patients with inherited bleeding disorder and chronic hepatitis C (CHC).

METHODS

This retrospective study was conducted on 294 patients with congenital bleeding disorder and CHC who were treated with Peg-Interferon-α (PegIFN) and Ribavirin (RBV). Baseline patient and viral parameters were measured and analyzed statistically to assess their combined and individual contributions to SVR prediction.

RESULTS

The most prevalent variants of rs12979860 and rs8099917 identified among the study patients were CT (45.9%) and TT (57.6%), respectively. Overall, SVR was achieved in 69% of the study patients. The rate of SVR was lower in patients with HCV genotype-1 than in those with HCV genotype-3 (62% vs 88%; P<.001; OR=0.23). Multivariate analysis of SVR predictors in patients with HCV genotype-1 infection included age (<24 years), BMI (<25), absence of cirrhosis, HCV RNA level (<400 000 IU/mL), rs8099917 TT and rs12979860 CC, all of which were associated with a higher SVR rate. In HCV genotype-3 infection, only rs12979860 CC was significantly associated with SVR.

CONCLUSION

These results demonstrate that polymorphisms of the IFNL4 gene are highly associated with SVR to PegIFN and RBV combination therapy in patients with a congenital bleeding disorder and CHC. Assessment of rs12979860 and rs8099917 genotypes can guide physicians in choosing an optimal treatment regimen, including less expensive therapies that may only be available in many geographic locales.