Insight into prevalence, etiology, and modalities of pediatric chronic dialysis: a comprehensive nationwide analysis

BACKGROUND

This study aimed to determine the prevalence and etiology of kidney failure (KF) among children below 15 years of age receiving chronic dialysis in Saudi Arabia and describe their dialysis modalities.

METHODS

This cross-sectional descriptive study was conducted on 8 August 2022, encompassing all 23 pediatric dialysis centers in Saudi Arabia. Data gathered comprised patient demographics, causes of KF, and the dialysis methods employed. Collected data underwent analysis to determine prevalence of children undergoing chronic dialysis, discern underlying causes of KF, and evaluate distribution of patients across different dialysis modalities.

RESULTS

The prevalence of children on chronic dialysis is 77.6 per million children living in Saudi Arabia, equating to 419 children. The predominant underlying cause of KF was congenital anomalies of the kidneys and urinary tract (CAKUT), representing a substantial 41% of cases. Following this, others or unknown etiologies accounted for a noteworthy 25% of cases, with focal segmental glomerulosclerosis (FSGS) comprising 13%, glomerulonephritis at 11%, and congenital nephrotic syndrome contributing 10% to etiological distribution. Regarding dialysis modalities employed, 67% of patients were on peritoneal dialysis (PD), while the remaining 33% were on hemodialysis (HD).

CONCLUSIONS

This first nationwide study of pediatric chronic dialysis in Saudi Arabia sheds light on the prevalence of children undergoing chronic dialysis and underlying causes of their KF, thereby contributing to our understanding of clinical management considerations. This research serves as a stepping stone for the development of national registries.

ChatGPT-3.5 System Usability Scale early assessment among Healthcare Workers: Horizons of adoption in medical practice

Artificial intelligence (AI) chatbots, such as ChatGPT, have widely invaded all domains of human life. They have the potential to transform healthcare future. However, their effective implementation hinges on healthcare workers' (HCWs) adoption and perceptions. This study aimed to evaluate HCWs usability of ChatGPT three months post-launch in Saudi Arabia using the System Usability Scale (SUS). A total of 194 HCWs participated in the survey. Forty-seven percent were satisfied with their usage, 57 % expressed moderate to high trust in its ability to generate medical decisions. 58 % expected ChatGPT would improve patients' outcomes, even though 84 % were optimistic of its potential to improve the future of healthcare practice. They expressed possible concerns like recommending harmful medical decisions and medicolegal implications. The overall mean SUS score was 64.52, equivalent to 50 % percentile rank, indicating high marginal acceptability of the system. The strongest positive predictors of high SUS scores were participants' belief in AI chatbot's benefits in medical research, self-rated familiarity with ChatGPT and self-rated computer skills proficiency. Participants' learnability and ease of use score correlated positively but weakly. On the other hand, medical students and interns had significantly high learnability scores compared to others, while ease of use scores correlated very strongly with participants' perception of positive impact of ChatGPT on the future of healthcare practice. Our findings highlight the HCWs' perceived marginal acceptance of ChatGPT at the current stage and their optimism of its potential in supporting them in future practice, especially in the research domain, in addition to humble ambition of its potential to improve patients' outcomes particularly in regard of medical decisions. On the other end, it underscores the need for ongoing efforts to build trust and address ethical and legal concerns of AI implications in healthcare. The study contributes to the growing body of literature on AI chatbots in healthcare, especially addressing its future improvement strategies and provides insights for policymakers and healthcare providers about the potential benefits and challenges of implementing them in their practice.

Global, regional, and national incidence and mortality burden of non-COVID-19 lower respiratory infections and aetiologies, 1990-2021: a systematic analysis from the Global Burden of Disease Study 2021

BACKGROUND

Lower respiratory infections (LRIs) are a major global contributor to morbidity and mortality. In 2020-21, non-pharmaceutical interventions associated with the COVID-19 pandemic reduced not only the transmission of SARS-CoV-2, but also the transmission of other LRI pathogens. Tracking LRI incidence and mortality, as well as the pathogens responsible, can guide health-system responses and funding priorities to reduce future burden. We present estimates from the Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study (GBD) 2021 of the burden of non-COVID-19 LRIs and corresponding aetiologies from 1990 to 2021, inclusive of pandemic effects on the incidence and mortality of select respiratory viruses, globally, regionally, and for 204 countries and territories.

METHODS

We estimated mortality, incidence, and aetiology attribution for LRI, defined by the GBD as pneumonia or bronchiolitis, not inclusive of COVID-19. We analysed 26 259 site-years of mortality data using the Cause of Death Ensemble model to estimate LRI mortality rates. We analysed all available age-specific and sex-specific data sources, including published literature identified by a systematic review, as well as household surveys, hospital admissions, health insurance claims, and LRI mortality estimates, to generate internally consistent estimates of incidence and prevalence using DisMod-MR 2.1. For aetiology estimation, we analysed multiple causes of death, vital registration, hospital discharge, microbial laboratory, and literature data using a network analysis model to produce the proportion of LRI deaths and episodes attributable to the following pathogens: Acinetobacter baumannii, Chlamydia spp, Enterobacter spp, Escherichia coli, fungi, group B streptococcus, Haemophilus influenzae, influenza viruses, Klebsiella pneumoniae, Legionella spp, Mycoplasma spp, polymicrobial infections, Pseudomonas aeruginosa, respiratory syncytial virus (RSV), Staphylococcus aureus, Streptococcus pneumoniae, and other viruses (ie, the aggregate of all viruses studied except influenza and RSV), as well as a residual category of other bacterial pathogens.

FINDINGS

Globally, in 2021, we estimated 344 million (95% uncertainty interval [UI] 325-364) incident episodes of LRI, or 4350 episodes (4120-4610) per 100 000 population, and 2·18 million deaths (1·98-2·36), or 27·7 deaths (25·1-29·9) per 100 000. 502 000 deaths (406 000-611 000) were in children younger than 5 years, among which 254 000 deaths (197 000-320 000) occurred in countries with a low Socio-demographic Index. Of the 18 modelled pathogen categories in 2021, S pneumoniae was responsible for the highest proportions of LRI episodes and deaths, with an estimated 97·9 million (92·1-104·0) episodes and 505 000 deaths (454 000-555 000) globally. The pathogens responsible for the second and third highest episode counts globally were other viral aetiologies (46·4 million [43·6-49·3] episodes) and Mycoplasma spp (25·3 million [23·5-27·2]), while those responsible for the second and third highest death counts were S aureus (424 000 [380 000-459 000]) and K pneumoniae (176 000 [158 000-194 000]). From 1990 to 2019, the global all-age non-COVID-19 LRI mortality rate declined by 41·7% (35·9-46·9), from 56·5 deaths (51·3-61·9) to 32·9 deaths (29·9-35·4) per 100 000. From 2019 to 2021, during the COVID-19 pandemic and implementation of associated non-pharmaceutical interventions, we estimated a 16·0% (13·1-18·6) decline in the global all-age non-COVID-19 LRI mortality rate, largely accounted for by a 71·8% (63·8-78·9) decline in the number of influenza deaths and a 66·7% (56·6-75·3) decline in the number of RSV deaths.

INTERPRETATION

Substantial progress has been made in reducing LRI mortality, but the burden remains high, especially in low-income and middle-income countries. During the COVID-19 pandemic, with its associated non-pharmaceutical interventions, global incident LRI cases and mortality attributable to influenza and RSV declined substantially. Expanding access to health-care services and vaccines, including S pneumoniae, H influenzae type B, and novel RSV vaccines, along with new low-cost interventions against S aureus, could mitigate the LRI burden and prevent transmission of LRI-causing pathogens.

FUNDING

Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation, Wellcome Trust, and Department of Health and Social Care (UK).

Global incidence, prevalence, years lived with disability (YLDs), disability-adjusted life-years (DALYs), and healthy life expectancy (HALE) for 371 diseases and injuries in 204 countries and territories and 811 subnational locations, 1990-2021: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2021

BACKGROUND

Detailed, comprehensive, and timely reporting on population health by underlying causes of disability and premature death is crucial to understanding and responding to complex patterns of disease and injury burden over time and across age groups, sexes, and locations. The availability of disease burden estimates can promote evidence-based interventions that enable public health researchers, policy makers, and other professionals to implement strategies that can mitigate diseases. It can also facilitate more rigorous monitoring of progress towards national and international health targets, such as the Sustainable Development Goals. For three decades, the Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study (GBD) has filled that need. A global network of collaborators contributed to the production of GBD 2021 by providing, reviewing, and analysing all available data. GBD estimates are updated routinely with additional data and refined analytical methods. GBD 2021 presents, for the first time, estimates of health loss due to the COVID-19 pandemic.

METHODS

The GBD 2021 disease and injury burden analysis estimated years lived with disability (YLDs), years of life lost (YLLs), disability-adjusted life-years (DALYs), and healthy life expectancy (HALE) for 371 diseases and injuries using 100 983 data sources. Data were extracted from vital registration systems, verbal autopsies, censuses, household surveys, disease-specific registries, health service contact data, and other sources. YLDs were calculated by multiplying cause-age-sex-location-year-specific prevalence of sequelae by their respective disability weights, for each disease and injury. YLLs were calculated by multiplying cause-age-sex-location-year-specific deaths by the standard life expectancy at the age that death occurred. DALYs were calculated by summing YLDs and YLLs. HALE estimates were produced using YLDs per capita and age-specific mortality rates by location, age, sex, year, and cause. 95% uncertainty intervals (UIs) were generated for all final estimates as the 2·5th and 97·5th percentiles values of 500 draws. Uncertainty was propagated at each step of the estimation process. Counts and age-standardised rates were calculated globally, for seven super-regions, 21 regions, 204 countries and territories (including 21 countries with subnational locations), and 811 subnational locations, from 1990 to 2021. Here we report data for 2010 to 2021 to highlight trends in disease burden over the past decade and through the first 2 years of the COVID-19 pandemic.

FINDINGS

Global DALYs increased from 2·63 billion (95% UI 2·44-2·85) in 2010 to 2·88 billion (2·64-3·15) in 2021 for all causes combined. Much of this increase in the number of DALYs was due to population growth and ageing, as indicated by a decrease in global age-standardised all-cause DALY rates of 14·2% (95% UI 10·7-17·3) between 2010 and 2019. Notably, however, this decrease in rates reversed during the first 2 years of the COVID-19 pandemic, with increases in global age-standardised all-cause DALY rates since 2019 of 4·1% (1·8-6·3) in 2020 and 7·2% (4·7-10·0) in 2021. In 2021, COVID-19 was the leading cause of DALYs globally (212·0 million [198·0-234·5] DALYs), followed by ischaemic heart disease (188·3 million [176·7-198·3]), neonatal disorders (186·3 million [162·3-214·9]), and stroke (160·4 million [148·0-171·7]). However, notable health gains were seen among other leading communicable, maternal, neonatal, and nutritional (CMNN) diseases. Globally between 2010 and 2021, the age-standardised DALY rates for HIV/AIDS decreased by 47·8% (43·3-51·7) and for diarrhoeal diseases decreased by 47·0% (39·9-52·9). Non-communicable diseases contributed 1·73 billion (95% UI 1·54-1·94) DALYs in 2021, with a decrease in age-standardised DALY rates since 2010 of 6·4% (95% UI 3·5-9·5). Between 2010 and 2021, among the 25 leading Level 3 causes, age-standardised DALY rates increased most substantially for anxiety disorders (16·7% [14·0-19·8]), depressive disorders (16·4% [11·9-21·3]), and diabetes (14·0% [10·0-17·4]). Age-standardised DALY rates due to injuries decreased globally by 24·0% (20·7-27·2) between 2010 and 2021, although improvements were not uniform across locations, ages, and sexes. Globally, HALE at birth improved slightly, from 61·3 years (58·6-63·6) in 2010 to 62·2 years (59·4-64·7) in 2021. However, despite this overall increase, HALE decreased by 2·2% (1·6-2·9) between 2019 and 2021.

INTERPRETATION

Putting the COVID-19 pandemic in the context of a mutually exclusive and collectively exhaustive list of causes of health loss is crucial to understanding its impact and ensuring that health funding and policy address needs at both local and global levels through cost-effective and evidence-based interventions. A global epidemiological transition remains underway. Our findings suggest that prioritising non-communicable disease prevention and treatment policies, as well as strengthening health systems, continues to be crucially important. The progress on reducing the burden of CMNN diseases must not stall; although global trends are improving, the burden of CMNN diseases remains unacceptably high. Evidence-based interventions will help save the lives of young children and mothers and improve the overall health and economic conditions of societies across the world. Governments and multilateral organisations should prioritise pandemic preparedness planning alongside efforts to reduce the burden of diseases and injuries that will strain resources in the coming decades.

FUNDING

Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation.

The burden of neurological conditions in north Africa and the Middle East, 1990-2019: a systematic analysis of the Global Burden of Disease Study 2019

BACKGROUND

The burden of neurological conditions in north Africa and the Middle East is increasing. We aimed to assess the changes in the burden of neurological conditions in this super-region to aid with future decision making.

METHODS

In this analysis of the Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study 2019 data, we examined temporal trends of disability-adjusted life-years (DALYs; deaths and disabilities combined), deaths, incident cases, and prevalent cases of 14 major neurological conditions and eight subtypes in 21 countries in the north Africa and the Middle East super-region. Additionally, we assessed neurological DALYs due to 22 potentially modifiable risk factors, within four levels of classification, during the period 1990-2019. We used a Bayesian modelling estimation approach, and generated 95% uncertainty intervals (UIs) for final estimates on the basis of the 2·5th and 97·5th percentiles of 1000 draws from the posterior distribution.

FINDINGS

In 2019, there were 441·1 thousand (95% UI 347·2-598·4) deaths and 17·6 million (12·5-24·7) neurological DALYs in north Africa and the Middle East. The leading causes of neurological DALYs were stroke, migraine, and Alzheimer's disease and other dementias (hereafter dementias). In north Africa and the Middle East in 2019, 85·8% (82·6-89·1) of stroke and 39·9% (26·4-54·7) of dementia age-standardised DALYs were attributable to modifiable risk factors. North Africa and the Middle East had the highest age-standardised DALY rates per 100 000 population due to dementia (387·0 [172·0-848·5]), Parkinson's disease (84·4 [74·7-103·2]), and migraine (601·4 [107·0-1371·8]) among the global super-regions. Between 1990 and 2019, there was a decrease in the age-standardised DALY rates related to meningitis (-75·8% [-81·1 to -69·5]), tetanus (-88·2% [-93·9 to -76·1]), stroke (-32·0% [-39·1 to -23·3]), intracerebral haemorrhage (-51·7% [-58·2 to -43·8]), idiopathic epilepsy (-26·2% [-43·6 to -1·1]), and subarachnoid haemorrhage (-62·8% [-71·6 to -41·0]), but for all other neurological conditions there was no change. During 1990-2019, the number of DALYs due to dementias, Parkinson's disease, multiple sclerosis, ischaemic stroke, and headache disorder (ie, migraine and tension-type headache) more than doubled in the super-region, and the burden of years lived with disability (YLDs), incidence, and prevalence of multiple sclerosis, motor neuron disease, Parkinson's disease, and ischaemic stroke increased both in age-standardised rate and count. During this period, the absolute burden of YLDs due to head and spinal injuries almost doubled.

INTERPRETATION

The increasing burden of neurological conditions in north Africa and the Middle East accompanies the increasing ageing population. Stroke and dementia are the primary causes of neurological disability and death, primarily attributable to common modifiable risk factors. Synergistic, systematic, lifetime, and multi-sectoral interventions aimed at preventing or mitigating the burden are needed.

FUNDING

Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation.

TRANSLATIONS

For the Persian, Arabic and Turkish translations of the abstract see Supplementary Materials section.

Global burden of 288 causes of death and life expectancy decomposition in 204 countries and territories and 811 subnational locations, 1990-2021: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2021

BACKGROUND

Regular, detailed reporting on population health by underlying cause of death is fundamental for public health decision making. Cause-specific estimates of mortality and the subsequent effects on life expectancy worldwide are valuable metrics to gauge progress in reducing mortality rates. These estimates are particularly important following large-scale mortality spikes, such as the COVID-19 pandemic. When systematically analysed, mortality rates and life expectancy allow comparisons of the consequences of causes of death globally and over time, providing a nuanced understanding of the effect of these causes on global populations.

METHODS

The Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study (GBD) 2021 cause-of-death analysis estimated mortality and years of life lost (YLLs) from 288 causes of death by age-sex-location-year in 204 countries and territories and 811 subnational locations for each year from 1990 until 2021. The analysis used 56 604 data sources, including data from vital registration and verbal autopsy as well as surveys, censuses, surveillance systems, and cancer registries, among others. As with previous GBD rounds, cause-specific death rates for most causes were estimated using the Cause of Death Ensemble model-a modelling tool developed for GBD to assess the out-of-sample predictive validity of different statistical models and covariate permutations and combine those results to produce cause-specific mortality estimates-with alternative strategies adapted to model causes with insufficient data, substantial changes in reporting over the study period, or unusual epidemiology. YLLs were computed as the product of the number of deaths for each cause-age-sex-location-year and the standard life expectancy at each age. As part of the modelling process, uncertainty intervals (UIs) were generated using the 2·5th and 97·5th percentiles from a 1000-draw distribution for each metric. We decomposed life expectancy by cause of death, location, and year to show cause-specific effects on life expectancy from 1990 to 2021. We also used the coefficient of variation and the fraction of population affected by 90% of deaths to highlight concentrations of mortality. Findings are reported in counts and age-standardised rates. Methodological improvements for cause-of-death estimates in GBD 2021 include the expansion of under-5-years age group to include four new age groups, enhanced methods to account for stochastic variation of sparse data, and the inclusion of COVID-19 and other pandemic-related mortality-which includes excess mortality associated with the pandemic, excluding COVID-19, lower respiratory infections, measles, malaria, and pertussis. For this analysis, 199 new country-years of vital registration cause-of-death data, 5 country-years of surveillance data, 21 country-years of verbal autopsy data, and 94 country-years of other data types were added to those used in previous GBD rounds.

FINDINGS

The leading causes of age-standardised deaths globally were the same in 2019 as they were in 1990; in descending order, these were, ischaemic heart disease, stroke, chronic obstructive pulmonary disease, and lower respiratory infections. In 2021, however, COVID-19 replaced stroke as the second-leading age-standardised cause of death, with 94·0 deaths (95% UI 89·2-100·0) per 100 000 population. The COVID-19 pandemic shifted the rankings of the leading five causes, lowering stroke to the third-leading and chronic obstructive pulmonary disease to the fourth-leading position. In 2021, the highest age-standardised death rates from COVID-19 occurred in sub-Saharan Africa (271·0 deaths [250·1-290·7] per 100 000 population) and Latin America and the Caribbean (195·4 deaths [182·1-211·4] per 100 000 population). The lowest age-standardised death rates from COVID-19 were in the high-income super-region (48·1 deaths [47·4-48·8] per 100 000 population) and southeast Asia, east Asia, and Oceania (23·2 deaths [16·3-37·2] per 100 000 population). Globally, life expectancy steadily improved between 1990 and 2019 for 18 of the 22 investigated causes. Decomposition of global and regional life expectancy showed the positive effect that reductions in deaths from enteric infections, lower respiratory infections, stroke, and neonatal deaths, among others have contributed to improved survival over the study period. However, a net reduction of 1·6 years occurred in global life expectancy between 2019 and 2021, primarily due to increased death rates from COVID-19 and other pandemic-related mortality. Life expectancy was highly variable between super-regions over the study period, with southeast Asia, east Asia, and Oceania gaining 8·3 years (6·7-9·9) overall, while having the smallest reduction in life expectancy due to COVID-19 (0·4 years). The largest reduction in life expectancy due to COVID-19 occurred in Latin America and the Caribbean (3·6 years). Additionally, 53 of the 288 causes of death were highly concentrated in locations with less than 50% of the global population as of 2021, and these causes of death became progressively more concentrated since 1990, when only 44 causes showed this pattern. The concentration phenomenon is discussed heuristically with respect to enteric and lower respiratory infections, malaria, HIV/AIDS, neonatal disorders, tuberculosis, and measles.

INTERPRETATION

Long-standing gains in life expectancy and reductions in many of the leading causes of death have been disrupted by the COVID-19 pandemic, the adverse effects of which were spread unevenly among populations. Despite the pandemic, there has been continued progress in combatting several notable causes of death, leading to improved global life expectancy over the study period. Each of the seven GBD super-regions showed an overall improvement from 1990 and 2021, obscuring the negative effect in the years of the pandemic. Additionally, our findings regarding regional variation in causes of death driving increases in life expectancy hold clear policy utility. Analyses of shifting mortality trends reveal that several causes, once widespread globally, are now increasingly concentrated geographically. These changes in mortality concentration, alongside further investigation of changing risks, interventions, and relevant policy, present an important opportunity to deepen our understanding of mortality-reduction strategies. Examining patterns in mortality concentration might reveal areas where successful public health interventions have been implemented. Translating these successes to locations where certain causes of death remain entrenched can inform policies that work to improve life expectancy for people everywhere.

FUNDING

Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation.

Global, regional, and national burden of disorders affecting the nervous system, 1990-2021: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2021

BACKGROUND

Disorders affecting the nervous system are diverse and include neurodevelopmental disorders, late-life neurodegeneration, and newly emergent conditions, such as cognitive impairment following COVID-19. Previous publications from the Global Burden of Disease, Injuries, and Risk Factor Study estimated the burden of 15 neurological conditions in 2015 and 2016, but these analyses did not include neurodevelopmental disorders, as defined by the International Classification of Diseases (ICD)-11, or a subset of cases of congenital, neonatal, and infectious conditions that cause neurological damage. Here, we estimate nervous system health loss caused by 37 unique conditions and their associated risk factors globally, regionally, and nationally from 1990 to 2021.

METHODS

We estimated mortality, prevalence, years lived with disability (YLDs), years of life lost (YLLs), and disability-adjusted life-years (DALYs), with corresponding 95% uncertainty intervals (UIs), by age and sex in 204 countries and territories, from 1990 to 2021. We included morbidity and deaths due to neurological conditions, for which health loss is directly due to damage to the CNS or peripheral nervous system. We also isolated neurological health loss from conditions for which nervous system morbidity is a consequence, but not the primary feature, including a subset of congenital conditions (ie, chromosomal anomalies and congenital birth defects), neonatal conditions (ie, jaundice, preterm birth, and sepsis), infectious diseases (ie, COVID-19, cystic echinococcosis, malaria, syphilis, and Zika virus disease), and diabetic neuropathy. By conducting a sequela-level analysis of the health outcomes for these conditions, only cases where nervous system damage occurred were included, and YLDs were recalculated to isolate the non-fatal burden directly attributable to nervous system health loss. A comorbidity correction was used to calculate total prevalence of all conditions that affect the nervous system combined.

FINDINGS

Globally, the 37 conditions affecting the nervous system were collectively ranked as the leading group cause of DALYs in 2021 (443 million, 95% UI 378-521), affecting 3·40 billion (3·20-3·62) individuals (43·1%, 40·5-45·9 of the global population); global DALY counts attributed to these conditions increased by 18·2% (8·7-26·7) between 1990 and 2021. Age-standardised rates of deaths per 100 000 people attributed to these conditions decreased from 1990 to 2021 by 33·6% (27·6-38·8), and age-standardised rates of DALYs attributed to these conditions decreased by 27·0% (21·5-32·4). Age-standardised prevalence was almost stable, with a change of 1·5% (0·7-2·4). The ten conditions with the highest age-standardised DALYs in 2021 were stroke, neonatal encephalopathy, migraine, Alzheimer's disease and other dementias, diabetic neuropathy, meningitis, epilepsy, neurological complications due to preterm birth, autism spectrum disorder, and nervous system cancer.

INTERPRETATION

As the leading cause of overall disease burden in the world, with increasing global DALY counts, effective prevention, treatment, and rehabilitation strategies for disorders affecting the nervous system are needed.

FUNDING

Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation.

Global age-sex-specific mortality, life expectancy, and population estimates in 204 countries and territories and 811 subnational locations, 1950-2021, and the impact of the COVID-19 pandemic: a comprehensive demographic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2021

BACKGROUND

Estimates of demographic metrics are crucial to assess levels and trends of population health outcomes. The profound impact of the COVID-19 pandemic on populations worldwide has underscored the need for timely estimates to understand this unprecedented event within the context of long-term population health trends. The Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study (GBD) 2021 provides new demographic estimates for 204 countries and territories and 811 additional subnational locations from 1950 to 2021, with a particular emphasis on changes in mortality and life expectancy that occurred during the 2020-21 COVID-19 pandemic period.

METHODS

22 223 data sources from vital registration, sample registration, surveys, censuses, and other sources were used to estimate mortality, with a subset of these sources used exclusively to estimate excess mortality due to the COVID-19 pandemic. 2026 data sources were used for population estimation. Additional sources were used to estimate migration; the effects of the HIV epidemic; and demographic discontinuities due to conflicts, famines, natural disasters, and pandemics, which are used as inputs for estimating mortality and population. Spatiotemporal Gaussian process regression (ST-GPR) was used to generate under-5 mortality rates, which synthesised 30 763 location-years of vital registration and sample registration data, 1365 surveys and censuses, and 80 other sources. ST-GPR was also used to estimate adult mortality (between ages 15 and 59 years) based on information from 31 642 location-years of vital registration and sample registration data, 355 surveys and censuses, and 24 other sources. Estimates of child and adult mortality rates were then used to generate life tables with a relational model life table system. For countries with large HIV epidemics, life tables were adjusted using independent estimates of HIV-specific mortality generated via an epidemiological analysis of HIV prevalence surveys, antenatal clinic serosurveillance, and other data sources. Excess mortality due to the COVID-19 pandemic in 2020 and 2021 was determined by subtracting observed all-cause mortality (adjusted for late registration and mortality anomalies) from the mortality expected in the absence of the pandemic. Expected mortality was calculated based on historical trends using an ensemble of models. In location-years where all-cause mortality data were unavailable, we estimated excess mortality rates using a regression model with covariates pertaining to the pandemic. Population size was computed using a Bayesian hierarchical cohort component model. Life expectancy was calculated using age-specific mortality rates and standard demographic methods. Uncertainty intervals (UIs) were calculated for every metric using the 25th and 975th ordered values from a 1000-draw posterior distribution.

FINDINGS

Global all-cause mortality followed two distinct patterns over the study period: age-standardised mortality rates declined between 1950 and 2019 (a 62·8% [95% UI 60·5-65·1] decline), and increased during the COVID-19 pandemic period (2020-21; 5·1% [0·9-9·6] increase). In contrast with the overall reverse in mortality trends during the pandemic period, child mortality continued to decline, with 4·66 million (3·98-5·50) global deaths in children younger than 5 years in 2021 compared with 5·21 million (4·50-6·01) in 2019. An estimated 131 million (126-137) people died globally from all causes in 2020 and 2021 combined, of which 15·9 million (14·7-17·2) were due to the COVID-19 pandemic (measured by excess mortality, which includes deaths directly due to SARS-CoV-2 infection and those indirectly due to other social, economic, or behavioural changes associated with the pandemic). Excess mortality rates exceeded 150 deaths per 100 000 population during at least one year of the pandemic in 80 countries and territories, whereas 20 nations had a negative excess mortality rate in 2020 or 2021, indicating that all-cause mortality in these countries was lower during the pandemic than expected based on historical trends. Between 1950 and 2021, global life expectancy at birth increased by 22·7 years (20·8-24·8), from 49·0 years (46·7-51·3) to 71·7 years (70·9-72·5). Global life expectancy at birth declined by 1·6 years (1·0-2·2) between 2019 and 2021, reversing historical trends. An increase in life expectancy was only observed in 32 (15·7%) of 204 countries and territories between 2019 and 2021. The global population reached 7·89 billion (7·67-8·13) people in 2021, by which time 56 of 204 countries and territories had peaked and subsequently populations have declined. The largest proportion of population growth between 2020 and 2021 was in sub-Saharan Africa (39·5% [28·4-52·7]) and south Asia (26·3% [9·0-44·7]). From 2000 to 2021, the ratio of the population aged 65 years and older to the population aged younger than 15 years increased in 188 (92·2%) of 204 nations.

INTERPRETATION

Global adult mortality rates markedly increased during the COVID-19 pandemic in 2020 and 2021, reversing past decreasing trends, while child mortality rates continued to decline, albeit more slowly than in earlier years. Although COVID-19 had a substantial impact on many demographic indicators during the first 2 years of the pandemic, overall global health progress over the 72 years evaluated has been profound, with considerable improvements in mortality and life expectancy. Additionally, we observed a deceleration of global population growth since 2017, despite steady or increasing growth in lower-income countries, combined with a continued global shift of population age structures towards older ages. These demographic changes will likely present future challenges to health systems, economies, and societies. The comprehensive demographic estimates reported here will enable researchers, policy makers, health practitioners, and other key stakeholders to better understand and address the profound changes that have occurred in the global health landscape following the first 2 years of the COVID-19 pandemic, and longer-term trends beyond the pandemic.

FUNDING

Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation.

Temporal patterns of cancer burden in Asia, 1990-2019: a systematic examination for the Global Burden of Disease 2019 study

Background

Cancers represent a challenging public health threat in Asia. This study examines the temporal patterns of incidence, mortality, disability and risk factors of 29 cancers in Asia in the last three decades.

Methods

The age, sex and year-wise estimates of incidence, mortality, and disability-adjusted life years (DALYs) of 29 cancers for 49 Asian countries from 1990 through 2019 were generated as a part of the Global Burden of Disease, Injuries and Risk Factors 2019 study. Besides incidence, mortality and DALYs, we also examined the cancer burden measured in terms of DALYs and deaths attributable to risk factors, which had evidence of causation with different cancers. The development status of countries was measured using the socio-demographic index. Decomposition analysis was performed to gauge the change in cancer incidence between 1990 and 2019 due to population growth, aging and age-specific incidence rates.

Findings

All cancers combined claimed an estimated 5.6 million [95% uncertainty interval, 5.1-6.0 million] lives in Asia with 9.4 million [8.6-10.2 million] incident cases and 144.7 million [132.7-156.5 million] DALYs in 2019. The age-standardized incidence rate (ASIR) of all cancers combined in Asia was 197.6/100,000 [181.0-214.4] in 2019, varying from 99.2/100,000 [76.1-126.0] in Bangladesh to 330.5/100,000 [298.5-365.8] in Cyprus. The age-standardized mortality rate (ASMR) was 120.6/100,000 [110.1-130.7] in 2019, varying 4-folds across countries from 71.0/100,000 [59.9-83.5] in Kuwait to 284.2/100,000 [229.2-352.3] in Mongolia. The age-standardized DALYs rate was 2970.5/100,000 [2722.6-3206.5] in 2019, varying from 1578.0/100,000 [1341.2-1847.0] in Kuwait to 6574.4/100,000 [5141.7-8333.0] in Mongolia. Between 1990 and 2019, deaths due to 17 of the 29 cancers either doubled or more, and 20 of the 29 cancers underwent an increase of 150% or more in terms of new cases. Tracheal, bronchus, and lung cancer (both sexes), breast cancer (among females), colon and rectum cancer (both sexes), stomach cancer (both sexes) and prostate cancer (among males) were among top-5 cancers in most Asian countries in terms of ASIR and ASMR in 2019 and cancers of liver, stomach, hodgkin lymphoma and esophageal cancer posted the most significant decreases in age-standardized rates between 1990 and 2019. Among the modifiable risk factors, smoking, alcohol use, ambient particulate matter (PM) pollution and unsafe sex remained the dominant risk factors between 1990 and 2019. Cancer DALYs due to ambient PM pollution, high body mass index and fasting plasma glucose has increased most notably between 1990 and 2019.

Interpretation

With growing incidence, cancer has become more significant public health threat in Asia, demanding urgent policy attention and guidance. Its heightened risk calls for increased cancer awareness, preventive measures, affordable early-stage detection, and cost-effective therapeutics in Asia. The current study can serve as a useful resource for policymakers and researchers in Asia for devising interventions for cancer management and control.

Funding

The GBD study is funded by the Bill and Melinda Gates Foundation.

The socioeconomic burden of spinal muscular atrophy in Saudi Arabia: a cross-sectional pilot study

Background

Spinal muscular atrophy (SMA) is a rare debilitating condition with a significant burden for patients and society. However, little is known about how it affects Saudi Arabia's population. The socioeconomic and medical characteristics of affected SMA patients and their caregivers are lacking.

Purpose

This study aimed to describe the socioeconomic and medical characteristics of SMA patients and caregivers in Saudi Arabia.

Patients and methods

A cross-sectional questionnaire-based study was conducted using snowball sampling. Assessment tools including EuroQol (EQ-5D-5L) and visual analog scale (EQ-VAS), Generalized Anxiety Disorder 7-item (GAD-7), Patient Health Questionnaire (PHQ-9), and Costs for Patients Questionnaire (CoPaQ) were used to assess the quality of life (QoL), anxiety, depression, and out-of-pocket expenditures.

Results

Sixty-four caregivers of SMA patients participated. Type I patients had higher sibling concordance, ICU hospitalization, and mechanical support needs. Type III patients had better QoL. Type I patients' caregivers had higher depression scores. Type III patients' caregivers had higher out-of-pocket expenditures. Forty-eight percent received supportive care, while others received SMA approved therapies.

Conclusion

SMA imposes a significant socioeconomic burden on patients and caregivers, requiring more attention from the healthcare system. Access to innovative therapies varied across SMA types. Pre-marital screening and early detection are crucial to reduce disease incidence and ensure timely treatment.

Navigating Novel Uncertainties of COVID-19: The Rise of the JN.1 Variant

In the shadow of the coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) pandemic, the emergence of the JN.1 variant highlights the need for continued vigilance. This Editorial examines the characteristics of JN.1, derived from BA.2.86, and how it affects global public health. Despite its mutation on the spike protein and rapid spread, there has been no increase in disease severity, particularly in terms of ICU admissions, as evidenced by data from the World Health Organization (WHO) and the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC). We emphasize the importance of continued surveillance, vaccine adaptation, and public health preparedness while advocating for a balanced response to effectively manage the post-pandemic era. It reflects on the resilience built through vaccination efforts and the need for international cooperation to navigate the way forward in the face of additional severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) variants.

Awareness, Attitudes, and Willingness: A Cross-Sectional Study of Organ Donation in Saudi Arabia

BACKGROUND

Organ transplantation is inherently dependent on the availability of organ donors. There is a noticeable paucity of literature addressing the rates of organ donation registration and the awareness of Islamic regulations (Fatwa) regarding organ donation within Saudi Arabia. Our study aimed to evaluate the level of organ donation registration, awareness of Islamic regulations, and knowledge of the Saudi Center for Organ Transplantation (SCOT) within the Saudi society.

METHODS

We conducted a cross-sectional survey from 30 March to 9 April 2023. This survey aimed to assess the awareness of Islamic (Fatwa) guidance on organ donation, the role of SCOT, and the rate of organ donation registration facilitated through the Tawakkalna app, the official health passport application in Saudi Arabia.

RESULTS

Out of 2329 respondents, 21% had registered as potential deceased organ donors, despite 87% acknowledging the importance of organ donation. Awareness of the Islamic Fatwa regarding organ donation was reported by 54.7% of respondents, and 37% recognized the Fatwa's acceptance of brain death criteria. The likelihood of registration as organ donors was higher among Saudi citizens under 45 years of age, females, healthcare workers (HCWs), individuals with higher education, relatives of patients awaiting organ donations, those informed about the Islamic Fatwas, and those willing to donate organs to friends. Conversely, being over the age of 25, Saudi nationality, employment as an HCW, awareness of SCOT, and prior organ donation registration were predictive of a heightened awareness of Islamic Fatwas. However, perceiving the importance of organ donation correlated with a lower awareness of the Fatwas. Significant positive correlations were found between awareness of SCOT, awareness of Fatwas, and registration for organ donation.

CONCLUSIONS

While the Saudi population exhibits a high regard for the importance of organ donation, this recognition is not adequately translated into registration rates. The discrepancy may be attributable to limited awareness of SCOT and the relevant Islamic Fatwas. It is imperative to initiate organ donation awareness campaigns that focus on religious authorization to boost organ donation rates and rectify prevalent misconceptions.

Outcomes of Cardiopulmonary Resuscitation in the Pediatric Intensive Care of a Tertiary Center

Understanding the factors affecting survival and modifying the preventable factors may improve patient outcomes following cardiopulmonary resuscitation (CPR). The aim of this study was to assess the prevalence and outcomes of cardiac arrest and CPR events in a tertiary pediatric intensive care unit (PICU). Outcomes of interest were the return of spontaneous circulation (ROSC) lasting more than 20 minutes, survival for 24 hours post-CPR, and survival to hospital discharge. We analyzed data from the PICU CPR registry from January 1, 2011 to January 1, 2018. All patients who underwent at least 2 minutes of CPR in the PICU were included. CPR was administered in 65 PICU instances, with a prevalence of 1.85%. The mean patient age was 32.7 months. ROSC occurred in 38 (58.5%) patients, 30 (46.2%) achieved 24-hour survival, and 21 (32.3%) survived to hospital discharge. Younger age ( p  < 0.018), respiratory cause ( p  < 0.001), bradycardia ( p  < 0.018), and short duration of CPR ( p  < 0.001) were associated with better outcomes, while sodium bicarbonate, norepinephrine, and vasopressin were associated with worse outcome ( p  < 0.009). The off-hour CPR had no impact on the outcome. The patients' cumulative predicted survival declined by an average of 8.7% for an additional 1 minute duration of CPR ( p  = 0.001). The study concludes that the duration of CPR, therefore, remains one of the crucial factors determining CPR outcomes and needs to be considered in parallel with the guideline emphasis on CPR quality. The lower survival rate post-ROSC needs careful consideration during parental counseling. Better anticipation and prevention of CPR remain ongoing challenges.

Assessment of Knowledge, Perceptions, and Attitudes During the Global Mpox Outbreak in June 2022: A Cross-Sectional Study From the United Arab Emirates

Objectives: To examine knowledge, worry, anxiety, and vaccine acceptance for mpox among UAE adults. Methods: An online survey, advertised on academic and social media platform in June 2022 collected data from 959 participants (aged 18 and above) on mpox beliefs, risks, knowledge, worry, anxiety, COVID-19 infection, vaccination, and willingness to receive the mpox vaccine. Bivariate and logistic regression analysis identified associations and predictors between variables. Results: 56% had optimal knowledge of mpox transmission and symptoms. 54% were worried, and 27% experienced anxiety related to the outbreak. Knowledge scores were higher among women, healthcare workers, and those with reliable information sources. High perceived infection risk, changes in precautionary measures, and belief in difficult treatment predicted more worry and anxiety. Higher worry and two or more doses of the COVID-19 vaccine predicted higher likelihood of taking the mpox vaccine. Conclusion: The UAE population showed low knowledge and high worry and anxiety during the global mpox outbreak. Increasing public awareness through targeted educational campaigns is vital. Promoting better understanding of infectious diseases, addressing concerns, and encouraging vaccine uptake can prepare for future outbreaks.

Assessing Knowledge, Acceptance, and Anticipated Impact of Telepathology in Saudi Arabia: Insights From Healthcare Workers and Patients

INTRODUCTION

Telepathology, a rapidly evolving field in modern healthcare, has the potential to significantly impact the diagnosis and management of diseases. This study aimed to assess the prevalence of acceptance and knowledge, the likelihood of future use, and the perceived advantages and disadvantages of telepathology among healthcare workers (HCWs) and patients in Saudi Arabia.

METHODS

A cross-sectional study was conducted with 388 participants, including 179 HCWs and 209 adult patients across Saudi Arabia. Data were collected using a bilingual, self-administered, and anonymous computer-based questionnaire. The Statistical Package for Social Sciences (SPSS, IBM Corp., Armonk, NY) was employed for data analysis.

RESULTS

The participants had an average knowledge rate of 80.3% (n=312) concerning telepathology. A substantial 88.16% (n=342) were inclined towards its acceptance, and an optimistic 89.97% (n=349) foresaw its potential utility. Among the respondents, 70% (n=272) pinpointed "expedited results" as the principal merit of telepathology. However, 60% (n=233) flagged "the necessity for costly infrastructure" as its chief limitation.

CONCLUSIONS

The insights derived underscore a prominent knowledge and endorsement of telepathology among the Saudi population and HCWs. Despite certain drawbacks, participants believe that telepathology is feasible and offers numerous benefits that could greatly enhance the healthcare system in Saudi Arabia. Future research should focus on evaluating its practical implementation and efficacy within healthcare facilities.

Increased blood immune regulatory cells in severe COVID-19 with autoantibodies to type I interferons

The hallmark of severe COVID-19 is an uncontrolled inflammatory response, resulting from poorly understood immunological dysfunction. While regulatory T (Treg) and B (Breg) cells, as the main elements of immune homeostasis, contribute to the control of hyperinflammation during COVID-19 infection, we hypothesized change in their levels in relation to disease severity and the presence of autoantibodies (auto-Abs) to type I IFNs. Cytometric analysis of blood of 62 COVID-19 patients with different severities revealed an increased proportion of conventional (cTreg; CD25+FoxP3+) and unconventional (uTreg; CD25-FoxP3+) Tregs, as well as the LAG3+ immune suppressive form of cTreg/uTreg, in the blood of severe COVID-19 cases compared to the milder, non-hospitalized cases. The increase in blood levels of cTreg/uTreg, but not LAG3+ cTreg/uTreg subtypes, was even higher among patients with severe COVID-19 and auto-Abs to type I IFNs. Regarding Bregs, compared to the milder, non-hospitalized cases, the proportion of IL-35+ and IL-10+ Bregs was elevated in the blood of severe COVID-19 patients, and to a higher extent in those with auto-Abs to type I IFNs. Moreover, blood levels of cTreg, LAG3+ cTreg/uTreg, and IL-35+ and IL-10+ Breg subtypes were associated with lower blood levels of proinflammatory cytokines such as IL-6, IL-17, TNFα, and IL-1β. Interestingly, patients who were treated with either tocilizumab and/or a high dose of Vitamin D had higher blood levels of these regulatory cells and better control of the proinflammatory cytokines. These observations suggest that perturbations in the levels of immunomodulatory Tregs and Bregs occur in COVID-19, especially in the presence of auto-Abs to type I IFNs.

Global, regional, and national incidence of six major immune-mediated inflammatory diseases: findings from the global burden of disease study 2019

Background

The causes for immune-mediated inflammatory diseases (IMIDs) are diverse and the incidence trends of IMIDs from specific causes are rarely studied. The study aims to investigate the pattern and trend of IMIDs from 1990 to 2019.

Methods

We collected detailed information on six major causes of IMIDs, including asthma, inflammatory bowel disease, multiple sclerosis, rheumatoid arthritis, psoriasis, and atopic dermatitis, between 1990 and 2019, derived from the Global Burden of Disease study in 2019. The average annual percent change (AAPC) in number of incidents and age standardized incidence rate (ASR) on IMIDs, by sex, age, region, and causes, were calculated to quantify the temporal trends.

Findings

In 2019, rheumatoid arthritis, atopic dermatitis, asthma, multiple sclerosis, psoriasis, inflammatory bowel disease accounted 1.59%, 36.17%, 54.71%, 0.09%, 6.84%, 0.60% of overall new IMIDs cases, respectively. The ASR of IMIDs showed substantial regional and global variation with the highest in High SDI region, High-income North America, and United States of America. Throughout human lifespan, the age distribution of incident cases from six IMIDs was quite different. Globally, incident cases of IMIDs increased with an AAPC of 0.68 and the ASR decreased with an AAPC of -0.34 from 1990 to 2019. The incident cases increased across six IMIDs, the ASR of rheumatoid arthritis increased (0.21, 95% CI 0.18, 0.25), while the ASR of asthma (AAPC = -0.41), inflammatory bowel disease (AAPC = -0.72), multiple sclerosis (AAPC = -0.26), psoriasis (AAPC = -0.77), and atopic dermatitis (AAPC = -0.15) decreased. The ASR of overall and six individual IMID increased with SDI at regional and global level. Countries with higher ASR in 1990 experienced a more rapid decrease in ASR.

Interpretation

The incidence patterns of IMIDs varied considerably across the world. Innovative prevention and integrative management strategy are urgently needed to mitigate the increasing ASR of rheumatoid arthritis and upsurging new cases of other five IMIDs, respectively.

Funding

The Global Burden of Disease Study is funded by the Bill and Melinda Gates Foundation. The project funded by Scientific Research Fund of Sichuan Academy of Medical Sciences & Sichuan Provincial People's Hospital (2022QN38).

Healthcare's New Horizon With ChatGPT's Voice and Vision Capabilities: A Leap Beyond Text

The integration of artificial intelligence (AI) in healthcare is responsible for a paradigm shift in medicine. OpenAI's recent augmentation of their Generative Pre-trained Transformer (ChatGPT) large language model (LLM) with voice and image recognition capabilities (OpenAI, Delaware) presents another potential transformative tool for healthcare. Envision a healthcare setting where professionals engage in dynamic interactions with ChatGPT to navigate the complexities of atypical medical scenarios. In this innovative landscape, practitioners could solicit ChatGPT's expertise for concise summarizations and insightful extrapolations from a myriad of web-based resources pertaining to similar medical conditions. Furthermore, imagine patients using ChatGPT to identify abnormalities in medical images or skin lesions. While the prospects are diverse, challenges such as suboptimal audio quality and ensuring data security necessitate cautious integration in medical practice. Drawing insights from previous ChatGPT iterations could provide a prudent roadmap for navigating possible challenges. This editorial explores some possible horizons and potential hurdles of ChatGPT's enhanced functionalities in healthcare, emphasizing the importance of continued refinements and vigilance to maximize the benefits while minimizing risks. Through collaborative efforts between AI developers and healthcare professionals, another fusion of AI and healthcare can evolve into enriched patient care and enhanced medical experience.

ChatGPT Surpasses 1000 Publications on PubMed: Envisioning the Road Ahead

The exponential growth of ChatGPT in medical literature, amassing over 1000 PubMed citations by August 2023, underscores a pivotal juncture in the convergence of artificial intelligence (AI) and healthcare. This remarkable rise not only showcases its potential to revolutionize medical academia but also indicates its impending influence on patient care and healthcare systems. Notwithstanding this enthusiasm, one-third of these citations are editorials or commentaries, stressing a gap in empirical research. Alongside its potential, there are concerns about ChatGPT becoming a "Weapon of Mass Deception" and the need for rigorous evaluations to counter inaccuracies. The World Association of Medical Editors has released guidelines emphasizing that AI tools should not be manuscript co-authors and advocates for clear disclosures in AI-assisted academic works. Interestingly, ChatGPT achieved its citation milestone within nine months, compared to Google's 14 years. As Large Language Models (LLMs), like ChatGPT, become more integral in healthcare, issues surrounding data protection, patient privacy, and ethical implications gain prominence. As the future of LLM research unfolds, key areas of interest include its efficacy in clinical settings, its role in telemedicine, and its potential in medical education. The journey ahead necessitates a harmonious partnership between the medical community and AI developers, emphasizing both technological advancements and ethical considerations.

Integrating ChatGPT in Medical Education: Adapting Curricula to Cultivate Competent Physicians for the AI Era

The rapid advancements in artificial intelligence (AI) language models, particularly ChatGPT (OpenAI, San Francisco, California, United States), necessitate the adaptation of medical education curricula to cultivate competent physicians in the AI era. In this editorial, we discuss short-term solutions and long-term adaptations for integrating ChatGPT into medical education. We recommend promoting digital literacy, developing critical thinking skills, and emphasizing evidence-based relevance as quick fixes. Long-term adaptations include focusing on the human factor, interprofessional collaboration, continuous professional development, and research and evaluation. By implementing these changes, medical educators can optimize medical education for the AI era, ensuring students are well prepared for a technologically advanced future in healthcare.

Global, regional, and national burden of meningitis and its aetiologies, 1990-2019: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2019

BACKGROUND

Although meningitis is largely preventable, it still causes hundreds of thousands of deaths globally each year. WHO set ambitious goals to reduce meningitis cases by 2030, and assessing trends in the global meningitis burden can help track progress and identify gaps in achieving these goals. Using data from the Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study (GBD) 2019, we aimed to assess incident cases and deaths due to acute infectious meningitis by aetiology and age from 1990 to 2019, for 204 countries and territories.

METHODS

We modelled meningitis mortality using vital registration, verbal autopsy, sample-based vital registration, and mortality surveillance data. Meningitis morbidity was modelled with a Bayesian compartmental model, using data from the published literature identified by a systematic review, as well as surveillance data, inpatient hospital admissions, health insurance claims, and cause-specific meningitis mortality estimates. For aetiology estimation, data from multiple causes of death, vital registration, hospital discharge, microbial laboratory, and literature studies were analysed by use of a network analysis model to estimate the proportion of meningitis deaths and cases attributable to the following aetiologies: Neisseria meningitidis, Streptococcus pneumoniae, Haemophilus influenzae, group B Streptococcus, Escherichia coli, Klebsiella pneumoniae, Listeria monocytogenes, Staphylococcus aureus, viruses, and a residual other pathogen category.

FINDINGS

In 2019, there were an estimated 236 000 deaths (95% uncertainty interval [UI] 204 000-277 000) and 2·51 million (2·11-2·99) incident cases due to meningitis globally. The burden was greatest in children younger than 5 years, with 112 000 deaths (87 400-145 000) and 1·28 million incident cases (0·947-1·71) in 2019. Age-standardised mortality rates decreased from 7·5 (6·6-8·4) per 100 000 population in 1990 to 3·3 (2·8-3·9) per 100 000 population in 2019. The highest proportion of total all-age meningitis deaths in 2019 was attributable to S pneumoniae (18·1% [17·1-19·2]), followed by N meningitidis (13·6% [12·7-14·4]) and K pneumoniae (12·2% [10·2-14·3]). Between 1990 and 2019, H influenzae showed the largest reduction in the number of deaths among children younger than 5 years (76·5% [69·5-81·8]), followed by N meningitidis (72·3% [64·4-78·5]) and viruses (58·2% [47·1-67·3]).

INTERPRETATION

Substantial progress has been made in reducing meningitis mortality over the past three decades. However, more meningitis-related deaths might be prevented by quickly scaling up immunisation and expanding access to health services. Further reduction in the global meningitis burden should be possible through low-cost multivalent vaccines, increased access to accurate and rapid diagnostic assays, enhanced surveillance, and early treatment.

FUNDING

Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation.

Prevalence and Predictive Factors of Compassion Fatigue among Healthcare Workers in Saudi Arabia: Implications for Well-Being and Support

Compassion fatigue (CF) poses significant challenges to healthcare workers' (HCWs) well-being. This study aimed to estimate the prevalence of CF and identify its predictive factors among HCWs in all regions of Saudi Arabia (SA). As such, all HCWs from different disciplines in different centers were allowed to participate, resulting in 678 participants. The study tool, distributed between October 2022 and January 2023, consisted of a questionnaire created by the authors based on the Professional Quality of Life Scale (ProQOL). The ProQOL measures the positive (compassion satisfaction [CS]) and negative (CF) effects of helping those who have suffered, noting that burnout (BO) and secondary traumatic stress (STS) are the two subscales that constitute CF. Our findings revealed that 63.9% of HCWs experienced average STS, while 57.2% reported average BO levels. HCWs in the southern and northern regions exhibited higher STS (p-value = 0.003 and 0.010, respectively). Physicians displayed higher BO levels (p-value = 0.024). Higher levels of CS were found among older HCWs (p-value = 0.001) and lower levels among those with more years of experience (p-value = 0.004). Support at work and job, life, and financial income satisfaction were significantly and positively correlated with CS and negatively correlated with BO and STS. These findings highlight the need for tailored awareness campaigns targeting HCWs, particularly physicians, to promote well-being, enhance coping skills, and foster problem-solving techniques. Keywords: burnout; compassion fatigue; compassion satisfaction; healthcare workers; professional quality of life; Saudi Arabia; secondary traumatic stress; medical trainees' well-being.

Global, regional, and national burden of diabetes from 1990 to 2021, with projections of prevalence to 2050: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2021

BACKGROUND

Diabetes is one of the leading causes of death and disability worldwide, and affects people regardless of country, age group, or sex. Using the most recent evidentiary and analytical framework from the Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study (GBD), we produced location-specific, age-specific, and sex-specific estimates of diabetes prevalence and burden from 1990 to 2021, the proportion of type 1 and type 2 diabetes in 2021, the proportion of the type 2 diabetes burden attributable to selected risk factors, and projections of diabetes prevalence through 2050.

METHODS

Estimates of diabetes prevalence and burden were computed in 204 countries and territories, across 25 age groups, for males and females separately and combined; these estimates comprised lost years of healthy life, measured in disability-adjusted life-years (DALYs; defined as the sum of years of life lost [YLLs] and years lived with disability [YLDs]). We used the Cause of Death Ensemble model (CODEm) approach to estimate deaths due to diabetes, incorporating 25 666 location-years of data from vital registration and verbal autopsy reports in separate total (including both type 1 and type 2 diabetes) and type-specific models. Other forms of diabetes, including gestational and monogenic diabetes, were not explicitly modelled. Total and type 1 diabetes prevalence was estimated by use of a Bayesian meta-regression modelling tool, DisMod-MR 2.1, to analyse 1527 location-years of data from the scientific literature, survey microdata, and insurance claims; type 2 diabetes estimates were computed by subtracting type 1 diabetes from total estimates. Mortality and prevalence estimates, along with standard life expectancy and disability weights, were used to calculate YLLs, YLDs, and DALYs. When appropriate, we extrapolated estimates to a hypothetical population with a standardised age structure to allow comparison in populations with different age structures. We used the comparative risk assessment framework to estimate the risk-attributable type 2 diabetes burden for 16 risk factors falling under risk categories including environmental and occupational factors, tobacco use, high alcohol use, high body-mass index (BMI), dietary factors, and low physical activity. Using a regression framework, we forecast type 1 and type 2 diabetes prevalence through 2050 with Socio-demographic Index (SDI) and high BMI as predictors, respectively.

FINDINGS

In 2021, there were 529 million (95% uncertainty interval [UI] 500-564) people living with diabetes worldwide, and the global age-standardised total diabetes prevalence was 6·1% (5·8-6·5). At the super-region level, the highest age-standardised rates were observed in north Africa and the Middle East (9·3% [8·7-9·9]) and, at the regional level, in Oceania (12·3% [11·5-13·0]). Nationally, Qatar had the world's highest age-specific prevalence of diabetes, at 76·1% (73·1-79·5) in individuals aged 75-79 years. Total diabetes prevalence-especially among older adults-primarily reflects type 2 diabetes, which in 2021 accounted for 96·0% (95·1-96·8) of diabetes cases and 95·4% (94·9-95·9) of diabetes DALYs worldwide. In 2021, 52·2% (25·5-71·8) of global type 2 diabetes DALYs were attributable to high BMI. The contribution of high BMI to type 2 diabetes DALYs rose by 24·3% (18·5-30·4) worldwide between 1990 and 2021. By 2050, more than 1·31 billion (1·22-1·39) people are projected to have diabetes, with expected age-standardised total diabetes prevalence rates greater than 10% in two super-regions: 16·8% (16·1-17·6) in north Africa and the Middle East and 11·3% (10·8-11·9) in Latin America and Caribbean. By 2050, 89 (43·6%) of 204 countries and territories will have an age-standardised rate greater than 10%.

INTERPRETATION

Diabetes remains a substantial public health issue. Type 2 diabetes, which makes up the bulk of diabetes cases, is largely preventable and, in some cases, potentially reversible if identified and managed early in the disease course. However, all evidence indicates that diabetes prevalence is increasing worldwide, primarily due to a rise in obesity caused by multiple factors. Preventing and controlling type 2 diabetes remains an ongoing challenge. It is essential to better understand disparities in risk factor profiles and diabetes burden across populations, to inform strategies to successfully control diabetes risk factors within the context of multiple and complex drivers.

FUNDING

Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation.

ChatGPT and the Future of Digital Health: A Study on Healthcare Workers' Perceptions and Expectations

This study aimed to assess the knowledge, attitudes, and intended practices of healthcare workers (HCWs) in Saudi Arabia towards ChatGPT, an artificial intelligence (AI) Chatbot, within the first three months after its launch. We also aimed to identify potential barriers to AI Chatbot adoption among healthcare professionals. A cross-sectional survey was conducted among 1057 HCWs in Saudi Arabia, distributed electronically via social media channels from 21 February to 6 March 2023. The survey evaluated HCWs' familiarity with ChatGPT-3.5, their satisfaction, intended future use, and perceived usefulness in healthcare practice. Of the respondents, 18.4% had used ChatGPT for healthcare purposes, while 84.1% of non-users expressed interest in utilizing AI Chatbots in the future. Most participants (75.1%) were comfortable with incorporating ChatGPT into their healthcare practice. HCWs perceived the Chatbot to be useful in various aspects of healthcare, such as medical decision-making (39.5%), patient and family support (44.7%), medical literature appraisal (48.5%), and medical research assistance (65.9%). A majority (76.7%) believed ChatGPT could positively impact the future of healthcare systems. Nevertheless, concerns about credibility and the source of information provided by AI Chatbots (46.9%) were identified as the main barriers. Although HCWs recognize ChatGPT as a valuable addition to digital health in the early stages of adoption, addressing concerns regarding accuracy, reliability, and medicolegal implications is crucial. Therefore, due to their unreliability, the current forms of ChatGPT and other Chatbots should not be used for diagnostic or treatment purposes without human expert oversight. Ensuring the trustworthiness and dependability of AI Chatbots is essential for successful implementation in healthcare settings. Future research should focus on evaluating the clinical outcomes of ChatGPT and benchmarking its performance against other AI Chatbots.

Global, regional, and national prevalence and mortality burden of sickle cell disease, 2000-2021: a systematic analysis from the Global Burden of Disease Study 2021

BACKGROUND

Previous global analyses, with known underdiagnosis and single cause per death attribution systems, provide only a small insight into the suspected high population health effect of sickle cell disease. Completed as part of the Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study (GBD) 2021, this study delivers a comprehensive global assessment of prevalence of sickle cell disease and mortality burden by age and sex for 204 countries and territories from 2000 to 2021.

METHODS

We estimated cause-specific sickle cell disease mortality using standardised GBD approaches, in which each death is assigned to a single underlying cause, to estimate mortality rates from the International Classification of Diseases (ICD)-coded vital registration, surveillance, and verbal autopsy data. In parallel, our goal was to estimate a more accurate account of sickle cell disease health burden using four types of epidemiological data on sickle cell disease: birth incidence, age-specific prevalence, with-condition mortality (total deaths), and excess mortality (excess deaths). Systematic reviews, supplemented with ICD-coded hospital discharge and insurance claims data, informed this modelling approach. We employed DisMod-MR 2.1 to triangulate between these measures-borrowing strength from predictive covariates and across age, time, and geography-and generated internally consistent estimates of incidence, prevalence, and mortality for three distinct genotypes of sickle cell disease: homozygous sickle cell disease and severe sickle cell β-thalassaemia, sickle-haemoglobin C disease, and mild sickle cell β-thalassaemia. Summing the three models yielded final estimates of incidence at birth, prevalence by age and sex, and total sickle cell disease mortality, the latter of which was compared directly against cause-specific mortality estimates to evaluate differences in mortality burden assessment and implications for the Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs).

FINDINGS

Between 2000 and 2021, national incidence rates of sickle cell disease were relatively stable, but total births of babies with sickle cell disease increased globally by 13·7% (95% uncertainty interval 11·1-16·5), to 515 000 (425 000-614 000), primarily due to population growth in the Caribbean and western and central sub-Saharan Africa. The number of people living with sickle cell disease globally increased by 41·4% (38·3-44·9), from 5·46 million (4·62-6·45) in 2000 to 7·74 million (6·51-9·2) in 2021. We estimated 34 400 (25 000-45 200) cause-specific all-age deaths globally in 2021, but total sickle cell disease mortality burden was nearly 11-times higher at 376 000 (303 000-467 000). In children younger than 5 years, there were 81 100 (58 800-108 000) deaths, ranking total sickle cell disease mortality as 12th (compared to 40th for cause-specific sickle cell disease mortality) across all causes estimated by the GBD in 2021.

INTERPRETATION

Our findings show a strikingly high contribution of sickle cell disease to all-cause mortality that is not apparent when each death is assigned to only a single cause. Sickle cell disease mortality burden is highest in children, especially in countries with the greatest under-5 mortality rates. Without comprehensive strategies to address morbidity and mortality associated with sickle cell disease, attainment of SDG 3.1, 3.2, and 3.4 is uncertain. Widespread data gaps and correspondingly high uncertainty in the estimates highlight the urgent need for routine and sustained surveillance efforts, further research to assess the contribution of conditions associated with sickle cell disease, and widespread deployment of evidence-based prevention and treatment for those with sickle cell disease.

FUNDING

Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation.

Snakebite Advice and Counseling From Artificial Intelligence: An Acute Venomous Snakebite Consultation With ChatGPT

BACKGROUND

Snakebites, particularly from venomous species, present a significant global public health challenge. Access to accurate and timely information regarding snakebite prevention, recognition, and management is crucial for minimizing morbidity and mortality. Artificial intelligence (AI) language models, such as ChatGPT (Chat Generative Pre-trained Transformer), have the potential to revolutionize the dissemination of medical information and improve patient education and satisfaction.

METHODS

This study aimed to explore the utility of ChatGPT, an advanced language model, in simulating acute venomous snakebite consultations. Nine hypothetical questions based on comprehensive snakebite management guidelines were posed to ChatGPT, and the responses were evaluated by clinical toxicologists and emergency medicine physicians.

RESULTS

ChatGPT provided accurate and informative responses related to the immediate management of snakebites, the urgency of seeking medical attention, symptoms, and health issues following venomous snakebites, the role of antivenom, misconceptions about snakebites, recovery, pain management, and prevention strategies. The model highlighted the importance of seeking professional medical care and adhering to healthcare practitioners' advice. However, some limitations were identified, including outdated knowledge, lack of personalization, and inability to consider regional variations and individual characteristics.

CONCLUSION

ChatGPT demonstrated proficiency in generating intelligible and well-informed responses related to venomous snakebites. It offers accessible and real-time advice, making it a valuable resource for preliminary information, education, and triage support in remote or underserved areas. While acknowledging its limitations, such as the need for up-to-date information and personalized advice, ChatGPT can serve as a supplementary source of information to complement professional medical consultation and enhance patient education. Future research should focus on addressing the identified limitations and establishing region-specific guidelines for snakebite management.

Artificial Intelligence (AI) Chatbots in Medicine: A Supplement, Not a Substitute

This editorial discusses the role of artificial intelligence (AI) chatbots in the healthcare sector, emphasizing their potential as supplements rather than substitutes for medical professionals. While AI chatbots have demonstrated significant potential in managing routine tasks, processing vast amounts of data, and aiding in patient education, they still lack the empathy, intuition, and experience intrinsic to human healthcare providers. Furthermore, the deployment of AI in medicine brings forth ethical and legal considerations that require robust regulatory measures. As we move towards the future, the editorial underscores the importance of a collaborative model, wherein AI chatbots and medical professionals work together to optimize patient outcomes. Despite the potential for AI advancements, the likelihood of chatbots completely replacing medical professionals remains low, as the complexity of healthcare necessitates human involvement. The ultimate aim should be to use technology like AI chatbots to enhance patient care and outcomes, not to replace the irreplaceable human elements of healthcare.

Harnessing Machine Learning in Early COVID-19 Detection and Prognosis: A Comprehensive Systematic Review

During the early phase of the COVID-19 pandemic, reverse transcriptase-polymerase chain reaction (RT-PCR) testing faced limitations, prompting the exploration of machine learning (ML) alternatives for diagnosis and prognosis. Providing a comprehensive appraisal of such decision support systems and their use in COVID-19 management can aid the medical community in making informed decisions during the risk assessment of their patients, especially in low-resource settings. Therefore, the objective of this study was to systematically review the studies that predicted the diagnosis of COVID-19 or the severity of the disease using ML. Following the Preferred Reporting Items for Systematic Reviews and Meta-Analysis (PRISMA), we conducted a literature search of MEDLINE (OVID), Scopus, EMBASE, and IEEE Xplore from January 1 to June 31, 2020. The outcomes were COVID-19 diagnosis or prognostic measures such as death, need for mechanical ventilation, admission, and acute respiratory distress syndrome. We included peer-reviewed observational studies, clinical trials, research letters, case series, and reports. We extracted data about the study's country, setting, sample size, data source, dataset, diagnostic or prognostic outcomes, prediction measures, type of ML model, and measures of diagnostic accuracy. Bias was assessed using the Prediction model Risk Of Bias ASsessment Tool (PROBAST). This study was registered in the International Prospective Register of Systematic Reviews (PROSPERO), with the number CRD42020197109. The final records included for data extraction were 66. Forty-three (64%) studies used secondary data. The majority of studies were from Chinese authors (30%). Most of the literature (79%) relied on chest imaging for prediction, while the remainder used various laboratory indicators, including hematological, biochemical, and immunological markers. Thirteen studies explored predicting COVID-19 severity, while the rest predicted diagnosis. Seventy percent of the articles used deep learning models, while 30% used traditional ML algorithms. Most studies reported high sensitivity, specificity, and accuracy for the ML models (exceeding 90%). The overall concern about the risk of bias was "unclear" in 56% of the studies. This was mainly due to concerns about selection bias. ML may help identify COVID-19 patients in the early phase of the pandemic, particularly in the context of chest imaging. Although these studies reflect that these ML models exhibit high accuracy, the novelty of these models and the biases in dataset selection make using them as a replacement for the clinicians' cognitive decision-making questionable. Continued research is needed to enhance the robustness and reliability of ML systems in COVID-19 diagnosis and prognosis.

ChatGPT-4 and the Global Burden of Disease Study: Advancing Personalized Healthcare Through Artificial Intelligence in Clinical and Translational Medicine

The fusion of insights from the comprehensive global burden of disease (GBD) study and the advanced artificial intelligence of open artificial intelligence (AI) chat generative pre-trained transformer version 4 (ChatGPT-4) brings the potential to transform personalized healthcare planning. By integrating the data-driven findings of the GBD study with the powerful conversational capabilities of ChatGPT-4, healthcare professionals can devise customized healthcare plans that are adapted to patients' lifestyles and preferences. We propose that this innovative partnership can lead to the creation of a novel AI-assisted personalized disease burden (AI-PDB) assessment and planning tool. For the successful implementation of this unconventional technology, it is crucial to ensure continuous and accurate updates, expert supervision, and address potential biases and limitations. Healthcare professionals and stakeholders should have a balanced and dynamic approach, emphasizing interdisciplinary collaborations, data accuracy, transparency, ethical compliance, and ongoing training. By investing in the unique strengths of both ChatGPT-4, especially its newly introduced features such as live internet browsing or plugins, and the GBD study, we may enhance personalized healthcare planning. This innovative approach has the potential to improve patient outcomes and optimize resource utilization, as well as pave the way for the worldwide implementation of precision medicine, thereby revolutionizing the existing healthcare landscape. However, to fully harness these benefits at both the global and individual levels, further research and development are warranted. This will ensure that we effectively tap into the potential of this synergy, bringing societies closer to a future where personalized healthcare is the norm rather than the exception.

Common Prognostic Biomarkers and Outcomes in Patients with COVID-19 Infection in Saudi Arabia

Background: COVID-19 is a respiratory disease that eventually became a pandemic, with 300 million people infected around the world. Alongside the improvement in COVID-19 management and vaccine development, identifying biomarkers for COVID-19 has recently been reported to help in early prediction and managing severe cases, which might improve outcomes. Our study aimed to find out if there is any correlation between clinical severity and elevated hematological and biochemical markers in COVID-19 patients and its effect on the outcome. Methods: We have collected retrospective data on socio-demographics, medical history, biomarkers, and disease outcomes from five hospitals and health institutions in the Kingdom of Saudi Arabia. Results: Pneumonia was the most common presentation of COVID-19 in our cohort. The presence of abnormal inflammatory biomarkers (D-dimer, CRP, troponin, LDH, ferritin, and t white blood cells) was significantly associated with unstable COVID-19 disease. In addition, patients with evidence of severe respiratory disease, particularly those who required mechanical ventilation, had higher biomarkers when compared to those with stable respiratory conditions (p < 0.001). Conclusion: Identifying biomarkers predicts outcomes for COVID-19 patients and may significantly help in their management.

Overview of Early ChatGPT's Presence in Medical Literature: Insights From a Hybrid Literature Review by ChatGPT and Human Experts

ChatGPT, an artificial intelligence chatbot, has rapidly gained prominence in various domains, including medical education and healthcare literature. This hybrid narrative review, conducted collaboratively by human authors and ChatGPT, aims to summarize and synthesize the current knowledge of ChatGPT in the indexed medical literature during its initial four months. A search strategy was employed in PubMed and EuropePMC databases, yielding 65 and 110 papers, respectively. These papers focused on ChatGPT's impact on medical education, scientific research, medical writing, ethical considerations, diagnostic decision-making, automation potential, and criticisms. The findings indicate a growing body of literature on ChatGPT's applications and implications in healthcare, highlighting the need for further research to assess its effectiveness and ethical concerns.

Enhancing Expert Panel Discussions in Pediatric Palliative Care: Innovative Scenario Development and Summarization With ChatGPT-4

This study presents a novel approach to enhance expert panel discussions in a medical conference through the use of ChatGPT-4 (Generative Pre-trained Transformer version 4), a recently launched powerful artificial intelligence (AI) language model. We report on ChatGPT-4's ability to optimize and summarize the medical conference panel recommendations of the first Pan-Arab Pediatric Palliative Critical Care Hybrid Conference, held in Riyadh, Saudi Arabia. ChatGPT-4 was incorporated into the discussions in two sequential phases: first, scenarios were optimized by the AI model to stimulate in-depth conversations; second, the model identified, summarized, and contrasted key themes from the panel and audience discussions. The results suggest that ChatGPT-4 effectively facilitated complex do-not-resuscitate (DNR) conflict resolution by summarizing key themes such as effective communication, collaboration, patient and family-centered care, trust, and ethical considerations. The inclusion of ChatGPT-4 in pediatric palliative care panel discussions demonstrated potential benefits for enhancing critical thinking among medical professionals. Further research is warranted to validate and broaden these insights across various settings and cultures.

Exploring Determinants of COVID-19 Vaccine Acceptance, Uptake, and Hesitancy in the Pediatric Population: A Study of Parents and Caregivers in Saudi Arabia during the Initial Vaccination Phase

OBJECTIVES

This study aims to assess COVID-19 vaccine acceptance, uptake, and hesitancy among parents and caregivers of children in Saudi Arabia during the initial rollout of pediatric COVID-19 vaccination.

METHODS

An electronic survey was used to collect data from participants who visited a COVID-19 vaccine center. The survey included demographic data, COVID-19 vaccine status among participants and their children, and reasons for vaccine acceptance or rejection. The Vaccine Hesitancy Scale (VHS) tool was also employed to assess vaccine hesitancy and attitudes toward the COVID-19 vaccine and routine childhood vaccination. Multivariate binary regression analysis was used to identify predictors of actual COVID-19 vaccine uptake among children.

RESULTS

Of the 873 respondents included in the analysis, 61.5% were parents and 38.5% were other caregivers. Of the participants, 96.9% had received the COVID-19 vaccine. Six hundred and ninety-four participants accepted the vaccine for their children, with the main reasons being an endorsement by the Saudi Ministry of Health (60%) and the importance of going back to school (55%). One hundred and seventy-nine participants would not vaccinate their children, with the most common reasons being fear of adverse effects (49%) and inadequate data about vaccine safety (48%). Factors such as age, COVID-19 vaccination status, self-rated family commitment level, attitudes toward routine children's vaccines, and participants' generalized anxiety disorder (GAD7) score did not significantly correlate with children's COVID-19 vaccination status. Parents were less likely to vaccinate their children compared to other caregivers, and participants with a higher socioeconomic status were more likely to vaccinate their children.

CONCLUSION

Vaccine acceptance and uptake were high during the initial pediatric COVID-19 vaccination rollout in Saudi Arabia. Still, the ongoing endorsement of the Ministry of Health and healthcare authorities should continue to advocate for better vaccine uptake in children.

Mitigating the Burden of Severe Pediatric Respiratory Viruses in the Post-COVID-19 Era: ChatGPT Insights and Recommendations

In the current post-pandemic era, the rapid spread of respiratory viruses among children and infants resulted in hospitals and pediatric intensive care units (PICUs) becoming overwhelmed. Healthcare providers around the world faced a significant challenge from the outbreak of respiratory viruses like respiratory syncytial virus (RSV), metapneumovirus, and influenza viruses. The chatbot generative pre-trained transformer, ChatGPT, which was launched by OpenAI in November 2022, had both positive and negative aspects in medical writing. Still, it has the potential to generate mitigation suggestions that could be rapidly implemented. We describe the generated suggestion from ChatGPT on 27 Feb 2023 in response to the question "What's your advice for the pediatric intensivists?" We as human authors and healthcare providers, do agree with and supplement with references these suggestions of ChatGPT. We also advocate that artificial intelligence (AI)-enabled chatbots could be utilized in seeking a vigilant and robust healthcare system to rapidly adapt to changing respiratory viruses circulating around the seasons, but AI-generated suggestions need experts to validate them, and further research is warranted.

Presentations and outcomes of familial hemophagocytic lymphohistiocytosis in the pediatric intensive care units (PICUs)

Objectives

We aimed to describe Familial Hemophagocytic Lymphohistiocytosis (F-HLH) patients' clinical features, intensive care courses, and outcomes.

Methods

Multi-center retrospective cohort study of pediatric patients diagnosed with F-HLH from 2015 to 2020 in five tertiary centers in Saudi Arabia. Patients were classified as F-HLH based on their genetic confirmation of known mutation or on their clinical criteria, which include a constellation of abnormalities, early disease onset, recurrent HLH in the absence of other causes, or a family history of HLH.

Results

Fifty-eight patients (28 male, 30 female), with a mean age of 21.0 ± 33.9 months, were included. The most common principal diagnosis was hematological or immune dysfunction (39.7%), followed by cardiovascular dysfunction in 13 (22.4%) patients. Fever was the most common clinical presentation in 27.6%, followed by convulsions (13.8%) and bleeding (13.8%). There were 20 patients (34.5%) who had splenomegaly, and more than 70% of patients had hyperferritinemia >500 mg/dl, hypertriglyceridemia >150 mg/dl and hemophagocytosis in bone marrow biopsy. Compared to deceased patients 18 (31%), survivors had significantly lower PT (p = 041), bilirubin level of <34.2 mmol/L (p = 0.042), higher serum triglyceride level (p = 0.036), and lesser bleeding within the initial 6 h of admission (p = 0.004). Risk factors for mortality included requirements of higher levels of hemodynamic (61.1% vs. 17.5%, p = 0.001) and respiratory (88.9% vs. 37.5%, p < 0.001) support, and positive fungal cultures (p = 0.046).

Conclusions

Familial HLH still represents a challenge in the pediatric critical care setting. Earlier diagnosis and prompt initiation of appropriate treatment could improve F-HLH survival.

Determinants of healthcare workers perceptions, acceptance and choice of COVID-19 vaccines: a cross-sectional study from the United Arab Emirates

Acceptance of COVID-19 vaccine among health-care workers (HCWs) is crucial for controlling the pandemic and ensuring HCW and patient safety. Information on the acceptance of different COVID-19 vaccines is lacking. Despite the United Arab Emirates (UAE) having vaccinated most of its population, vaccine acceptance still raises concerns. This study explores COVID-19 vaccine acceptance, vaccine choice, and associated factors among HCWs in the UAE. An online national cross-sectional study was conducted among 517 HCWs. Acceptance and choice of COVID-19 vaccines were assessed, and logistic regression analysis identified predictors for vaccine acceptance. More than half (58%) of HCWs were willing to take the vaccine and give it to their family. Reasons for taking the vaccine were concerns for families contracting COVID-19 (67%) and social responsibility (64%). Reasons for refusals included concerns with side-effects (61%). Most HCWs knew of the Pfizer (79%) and Sinopharm (57%) vaccines; however, acceptance was higher for Pfizer (35%) and AstraZeneca (21%) vaccines. Being male and being influenza vaccinated predicted willingness to take the vaccine (aOR: 2.34; 95% CI:1.34-4.08; p ≤ 0.001) and (aOR: 2.13; 95% CI: 1.29-3.51; p ≤ 0.001), respectively. HCWs who expressed concerns with inadequate safety data were less likely to take the vaccine (aOR: 0.17; 95% CI: 0.10-0.30; p ≤ 0.001). Additionally, side effects, perception of risk, and level of trust of company and country of manufacture predicted acceptance and choice of vaccines. Effective vaccine policy campaigns to improve acceptance should target HCW's knowledge and awareness of perceived risks of COVID-19, safety data, social responsibility, and individual preferences for vaccine choice.

Age-sex differences in the global burden of lower respiratory infections and risk factors, 1990-2019: results from the Global Burden of Disease Study 2019

BACKGROUND

The global burden of lower respiratory infections (LRIs) and corresponding risk factors in children older than 5 years and adults has not been studied as comprehensively as it has been in children younger than 5 years. We assessed the burden and trends of LRIs and risk factors across all age groups by sex, for 204 countries and territories.

METHODS

In this analysis of data for the Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study (GBD) 2019, we used clinician-diagnosed pneumonia or bronchiolitis as our case definition for LRIs. We included International Classification of Diseases 9th edition codes 079.6, 466-469, 470.0, 480-482.8, 483.0-483.9, 484.1-484.2, 484.6-484.7, and 487-489 and International Classification of Diseases 10th edition codes A48.1, A70, B97.4-B97.6, J09-J15.8, J16-J16.9, J20-J21.9, J91.0, P23.0-P23.4, and U04-U04.9. We used the Cause of Death Ensemble modelling strategy to analyse 23 109 site-years of vital registration data, 825 site-years of sample vital registration data, 1766 site-years of verbal autopsy data, and 681 site-years of mortality surveillance data. We used DisMod-MR 2.1, a Bayesian meta-regression tool, to analyse age-sex-specific incidence and prevalence data identified via systematic reviews of the literature, population-based survey data, and claims and inpatient data. Additionally, we estimated age-sex-specific LRI mortality that is attributable to the independent effects of 14 risk factors.

FINDINGS

Globally, in 2019, we estimated that there were 257 million (95% uncertainty interval [UI] 240-275) LRI incident episodes in males and 232 million (217-248) in females. In the same year, LRIs accounted for 1·30 million (95% UI 1·18-1·42) male deaths and 1·20 million (1·07-1·33) female deaths. Age-standardised incidence and mortality rates were 1·17 times (95% UI 1·16-1·18) and 1·31 times (95% UI 1·23-1·41) greater in males than in females in 2019. Between 1990 and 2019, LRI incidence and mortality rates declined at different rates across age groups and an increase in LRI episodes and deaths was estimated among all adult age groups, with males aged 70 years and older having the highest increase in LRI episodes (126·0% [95% UI 121·4-131·1]) and deaths (100·0% [83·4-115·9]). During the same period, LRI episodes and deaths in children younger than 15 years were estimated to have decreased, and the greatest decline was observed for LRI deaths in males younger than 5 years (-70·7% [-77·2 to -61·8]). The leading risk factors for LRI mortality varied across age groups and sex. More than half of global LRI deaths in children younger than 5 years were attributable to child wasting (population attributable fraction [PAF] 53·0% [95% UI 37·7-61·8] in males and 56·4% [40·7-65·1] in females), and more than a quarter of LRI deaths among those aged 5-14 years were attributable to household air pollution (PAF 26·0% [95% UI 16·6-35·5] for males and PAF 25·8% [16·3-35·4] for females). PAFs of male LRI deaths attributed to smoking were 20·4% (95% UI 15·4-25·2) in those aged 15-49 years, 30·5% (24·1-36·9) in those aged 50-69 years, and 21·9% (16·8-27·3) in those aged 70 years and older. PAFs of female LRI deaths attributed to household air pollution were 21·1% (95% UI 14·5-27·9) in those aged 15-49 years and 18·2% (12·5-24·5) in those aged 50-69 years. For females aged 70 years and older, the leading risk factor, ambient particulate matter, was responsible for 11·7% (95% UI 8·2-15·8) of LRI deaths.

INTERPRETATION

The patterns and progress in reducing the burden of LRIs and key risk factors for mortality varied across age groups and sexes. The progress seen in children younger than 5 years was clearly a result of targeted interventions, such as vaccination and reduction of exposure to risk factors. Similar interventions for other age groups could contribute to the achievement of multiple Sustainable Development Goals targets, including promoting wellbeing at all ages and reducing health inequalities. Interventions, including addressing risk factors such as child wasting, smoking, ambient particulate matter pollution, and household air pollution, would prevent deaths and reduce health disparities.

FUNDING

Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation.

Mapping development and health effects of cooking with solid fuels in low-income and middle-income countries, 2000-18: a geospatial modelling study

BACKGROUND

More than 3 billion people do not have access to clean energy and primarily use solid fuels to cook. Use of solid fuels generates household air pollution, which was associated with more than 2 million deaths in 2019. Although local patterns in cooking vary systematically, subnational trends in use of solid fuels have yet to be comprehensively analysed. We estimated the prevalence of solid-fuel use with high spatial resolution to explore subnational inequalities, assess local progress, and assess the effects on health in low-income and middle-income countries (LMICs) without universal access to clean fuels.

METHODS

We did a geospatial modelling study to map the prevalence of solid-fuel use for cooking at a 5 km × 5 km resolution in 98 LMICs based on 2·1 million household observations of the primary cooking fuel used from 663 population-based household surveys over the years 2000 to 2018. We use observed temporal patterns to forecast household air pollution in 2030 and to assess the probability of attaining the Sustainable Development Goal (SDG) target indicator for clean cooking. We aligned our estimates of household air pollution to geospatial estimates of ambient air pollution to establish the risk transition occurring in LMICs. Finally, we quantified the effect of residual primary solid-fuel use for cooking on child health by doing a counterfactual risk assessment to estimate the proportion of deaths from lower respiratory tract infections in children younger than 5 years that could be associated with household air pollution.

FINDINGS

Although primary reliance on solid-fuel use for cooking has declined globally, it remains widespread. 593 million people live in districts where the prevalence of solid-fuel use for cooking exceeds 95%. 66% of people in LMICs live in districts that are not on track to meet the SDG target for universal access to clean energy by 2030. Household air pollution continues to be a major contributor to particulate exposure in LMICs, and rising ambient air pollution is undermining potential gains from reductions in the prevalence of solid-fuel use for cooking in many countries. We estimated that, in 2018, 205 000 (95% uncertainty interval 147 000-257 000) children younger than 5 years died from lower respiratory tract infections that could be attributed to household air pollution.

INTERPRETATION

Efforts to accelerate the adoption of clean cooking fuels need to be substantially increased and recalibrated to account for subnational inequalities, because there are substantial opportunities to improve air quality and avert child mortality associated with household air pollution.

FUNDING

Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation.

Mental health impact of COVID-19 on Saudi families and children with special educational needs and disabilities in Saudi Arabia: A national perspective

Introduction

The COVID-19 pandemic revealed a multidimensional impact on mental health due to health concerns, social distancing and lockdowns, job loss, and limits in institutional support. Accordingly, COVID-19 may disproportionally impact families with special educational needs and disabilities (SEND) due to the already high prevalence of mental health conditions in children with SEND and their parents. Hence, it is essential to determine the short-term impact of the pandemic on the mental health of families with SEND to identify their ongoing health, including psychological wellbeing and support needs. The current study examines the anxiety level and concerns of children with SEND and their parents living in Saudi Arabia.

Methodology

A cross-sectional national study design was utilized as a part of an international consortium using an online Arabic survey. Data were collected from the Ministry of Human Resources and Social Development beneficiaries from May to July 2020. The sample consisted of 1,848 parents of children with SEND aged between 1 and 18 years (mean = 9.66; SD = 4.31). A descriptive and bivariant analysis is reported.

Results

Parental worries on all those concerns when the pandemic started were significantly higher than before the pandemic, p < 0.050. Parental-perceived general anxiety had risen significantly across time, p < 0.001, and their perceived anxiety when the pandemic started exceeded their anxiety before the pandemic, p < 0.001. The general anxiety of children with SEND had risen significantly across time (from before the pandemic to when it had started to during the pandemic), p < 0.001. The children's general worries at the start of the pandemic had correlated significantly and positively with their anxiety, adaptive, maladaptive, and coping efficacies, and parental anxiety scores, p < 0.010 each.

Conclusion

Anxiety levels were high in SEND and their caregivers before and during COVID-19. At the start of the pandemic, the anxiety, adaptive, maladaptive, coping efficacies, and parental anxiety scores of children with SEND were significantly and favorably correlated. These findings support the notion of SEND-specific anxiety and patterns of coping in SEND and their caregivers. The notion also attests to the institutional support required for this specifically vulnerable population during epidemics.

Upregulation of interleukin-19 in saliva of patients with COVID-19

Cytokines are major players in orchestrating inflammation, disease pathogenesis and severity during COVID-19 disease. However, the role of IL-19 in COVID-19 pathogenesis remains elusive. Herein, through the analysis of transcriptomic datasets of SARS-CoV-2 infected lung cells, nasopharyngeal swabs, and lung autopsies of COVID-19 patients, we report that expression levels of IL-19 and its receptor, IL-20R2, were upregulated following SARS-CoV-2 infection. Of 202 adult COVID-19 patients, IL-19 protein level was significantly higher in blood and saliva of asymptomatic patients compared to healthy controls when adjusted for patients’ demographics (P < 0.001). Interestingly, high saliva IL-19 level was also associated with COVID-19 severity (P < 0.0001), need for mechanical ventilation (P = 0.002), and/or death (P = 0.010) within 29 days of admission, after adjusting for patients’ demographics, diabetes mellitus comorbidity, and COVID-19 serum markers of severity such as D-dimer, C-reactive protein, and ferritin. Moreover, patients who received interferon beta during their hospital stay had lower plasma IL-19 concentrations (24 pg mL⁻¹) than those who received tocilizumab (39.2 pg mL⁻¹) or corticosteroids (42.5 pg mL⁻¹). Our findings indicate that high saliva IL-19 level was associated with COVID-19 infectivity and disease severity.

Interleukin-17, a salivary biomarker for COVID-19 severity

Objectives

T-helper 17 cell-mediated response and their effector IL-17 cytokine induced by severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) infection is a major cause of COVID-19 disease severity and death. Therefore, the study aimed to determine if IL-17 level in saliva mirrors its circulatory level and hence can be used as a non-invasive biomarker for disease severity.

Methods

Interleukin-17 (IL-17) level was evaluated by ELISA in saliva and blood of 201 adult COVID-19 patients with different levels of severity. The IL-17 saliva level was also associated with COVID-19 disease severity, and need for mechanical ventilation and/or death within 29 days after admission of severe COVID-19 patients.

Results

We found that IL-17 level in saliva of COVID-19 patients reflected its circulatory level. High IL-17 level in saliva was associated with COVID-19 severity (P<0.001), need for mechanical ventilation (P = 0.002), and/or death by 29 days (P = 0.002), after adjusting for patients’ demographics, comorbidity, and COVID-19 serum severity markers such as D-Dimer, C-reactive protein, and ferritin.

Conclusion

We propose that saliva IL-17 level could be used as a biomarker to identify patients at risk of developing severe COVID-19.

The burden of viral infections in pediatric intensive care unit between endemic and pandemic coronavirus infections: A tertiary care center experience

Objectives

To measure the prevalence of viral infections, length of stay (LOS), and outcome in children admitted to the pediatric intensive care unit (PICU) during the period preceding the COVID-19 pandemic in a MERS-CoV endemic country.

Methods

A retrospective chart review of children 0–14 years old admitted to PICU with a viral infection.

Results

Of 1736 patients, 164 patients (9.45%) had a positive viral infection. The annual prevalence trended downward over a three-year period, from 11.7% to 7.3%. The median PICU LOS was 11.6 days. Viral infections were responsible for 1904.4 (21.94%) PICU patient-days. Mechanical ventilation was used in 91.5% of patients, including noninvasive and invasive modes. Comorbidities were significantly associated with intubation (P-value = 0.025). Patients infected with multiple viruses had median pediatric index of mortality 2 (PIM 2) scores of 4, as compared to 1 for patients with single virus infections (p < 0.001), and a median PICU LOS of 12 days, compared to 4 in the single-virus group (p < 0.001). Overall, mortality associated with viral infections in PICU was 7 (4.3%). Patients with viral infections having multiple organ failure were significantly more likely to die in the PICU (p = 0.001).

Conclusion

Viral infections are responsible for one-fifth of PICU patient-days, with a high demand for mechanical ventilation. Patients with multiple viral infections had longer LOS, and higher PIM 2 scores. The downward trend in the yearly rate of PICU admissions for viral infections between the end of the MERS-CoV outbreak and the start of the COVID-19 pandemic may suggest viral interference that warrants further investigations.

Vitamin D modulates systemic inflammation in patients with severe COVID-19

Aims

The ability of vitamin D (VitD) to modulate immune responses in the clinical setting of COVID-19 infection is not well investigated. This study aimed to evaluate the ability of VitD to attenuate inflammatory responses in patients with severe COVID-19.

Materials and methods

Blood samples and nasopharyngeal swabs were obtained from patients with severe COVID-19 who had been treated (20 patients), or not (25 patients), with VitD, during their stay in the intensive care unit. Western blotting was used to evaluate the expressions of STAT3, JNK and AKT signaling pathways and ELISA was used to measure levels of IL-6, IL-17, and IL-1β in blood of these patients.

Key findings

Reduced levels of STAT3, JNK and AKT pathways and lower levels of proinflammatory cytokines such as IL-6, IL-17, and IL-1β were observed in VitD treated patients (50,000 IU of cholecalciferol weekly for 3 weeks), and in vitro following treatment of poly I:C stimulated PBMCs with VitD (50 nM of calcitriol). Moreover, lower circulatory levels of these proinflammatory cytokines following treatment with VitD were associated with lower serum levels of COVID-19-related severity markers such as D-dimer and C-reactive proteins (P < 0.001) which in overall resulted in shorter length of ICU stay for VitD treated compared to untreated patients (18 days for VitD treated vs. 28 days for VitD untreated; P = 0.01).

Significance

This study reveals that VitD plays immunomodulatory role during COVID-19 infection, which further emphasizes the importance of maintaining a normal level of this vitamin for the prevention of hyperinflammatory conditions associated with COVID-19.

Population-level risks of alcohol consumption by amount, geography, age, sex, and year: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2020

BACKGROUND

The health risks associated with moderate alcohol consumption continue to be debated. Small amounts of alcohol might lower the risk of some health outcomes but increase the risk of others, suggesting that the overall risk depends, in part, on background disease rates, which vary by region, age, sex, and year.

METHODS

For this analysis, we constructed burden-weighted dose-response relative risk curves across 22 health outcomes to estimate the theoretical minimum risk exposure level (TMREL) and non-drinker equivalence (NDE), the consumption level at which the health risk is equivalent to that of a non-drinker, using disease rates from the Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study (GBD) 2020 for 21 regions, including 204 countries and territories, by 5-year age group, sex, and year for individuals aged 15-95 years and older from 1990 to 2020. Based on the NDE, we quantified the population consuming harmful amounts of alcohol.

FINDINGS

The burden-weighted relative risk curves for alcohol use varied by region and age. Among individuals aged 15-39 years in 2020, the TMREL varied between 0 (95% uncertainty interval 0-0) and 0·603 (0·400-1·00) standard drinks per day, and the NDE varied between 0·002 (0-0) and 1·75 (0·698-4·30) standard drinks per day. Among individuals aged 40 years and older, the burden-weighted relative risk curve was J-shaped for all regions, with a 2020 TMREL that ranged from 0·114 (0-0·403) to 1·87 (0·500-3·30) standard drinks per day and an NDE that ranged between 0·193 (0-0·900) and 6·94 (3·40-8·30) standard drinks per day. Among individuals consuming harmful amounts of alcohol in 2020, 59·1% (54·3-65·4) were aged 15-39 years and 76·9% (73·0-81·3) were male.

INTERPRETATION

There is strong evidence to support recommendations on alcohol consumption varying by age and location. Stronger interventions, particularly those tailored towards younger individuals, are needed to reduce the substantial global health loss attributable to alcohol.

FUNDING

Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation.

Perspective on the challenges of COVID-19 facing healthcare workers

The emergence of COVID-19 has caused a significant impact on healthcare workers (HCWs) across the globe. A few of these challenges include high workload, lack of coordination and direction, changing information, shortage of personal protective equipment (PPE), managing isolation, fear, and increased anxiety, adapting to changes in healthcare practice and policy, coping strategies, and emotional and physical needs. Here, we shed light on some aspects of these challenges among healthcare workers.