Nigerian physiotherapists’ knowledge, attitude, and practice of digital physical therapy: a cross-sectional study

Background

The increasing demand for physical therapy services worldwide calls for innovations to be made to meet the challenges of service delivery. However, little is known about the knowledge, attitude, and practice (KAP) of digital physical therapy among Nigerian physiotherapists. Hence, this study aimed to evaluate the level of KAP of digital physical therapy among physiotherapists in Nigeria.

Methods

This cross-sectional study purposively recruited 150 Nigerian physiotherapists. Copies of modified and validated questionnaires on the KAP of digital physical therapy from a previous study were sent to registered and licensed physiotherapists via electronic survey to assess the KAP of digital physical therapy. Descriptive and inferential statistics were used to analyze the data. Alpha level was set at p < 0.05.

Results

The mean age of the respondents was 29.76 ± 6.95 years. Most participants (81.3%) have a knowledge level above average, while 18.7% have below average. Furthermore, most (76.0%) of the respondents had a positive attitude toward digital physical therapy. In addition, more than two-thirds, 69.3% uses digital physical therapy platforms for physical therapy practice. Knowledge, attitude, and practice were not significantly associated with sociodemographic characteristics (p > 0.05). Furthermore, there was no significant association between knowledge, attitude, and practice (p > 0.05).

Conclusion

Many Nigerian physiotherapists demonstrated adequate knowledge, positive attitude, and good practice of digital physical therapy. However, knowledge, attitude, and practice of digital physical therapy were not influenced by sociodemographic characteristics.

Supplementary Information

The online version contains supplementary material available at 10.1186/s43161-022-00118-3.

Expert consensus on the minimum clinical standards of practice for Nigerian physiotherapists working in intensive care units: A modified Delphi study

BACKGROUND

Management of patients in intensive care units (ICUs) needs staff with a recommended level of expertise and experience owing to the life-threatening nature of illnesses, injuries and complications that these patients present with. There are no specific guidelines governing physiotherapy practice in ICUs in Nigeria. Hence, there is a need to have expert consensus on the minimum clinical standard of practice for physiotherapists working in ICUs as a first step to proposing/developing guidelines in the future.

OBJECTIVES

To assess the expert consensus on the minimum clinical standard of practice for physiotherapists working in ICUs in Nigeria.

METHODS

Physiotherapists with working experience in Nigerian ICUs were purposively recruited into the present study using a modified Delphi technique. A questionnaire comprising 222 question items on the role of physiotherapy in critical care was adopted and administered to the participants over three rounds of Delphi procedure (online). Participants checked either 'essential', 'not essential' or 'unsure' for each question item. For each question item to be considered 'essential' or 'not essential', a consensus agreement ≥70% had to be met. Questions without consensus were further modified by providing definition or clarification and presented in subsequent rounds. Data were analysed descriptively.

RESULTS

We recruited 26 expert physiotherapists who consented to the study and completed the first round of the study. The majority of the physiotherapists (n=24) remained in the study after the third round. A total of 178 question items were adjudged to be 'essential' after the first round, and a further 15 and three additional items were subsequently adjudged to be as 'essential' after modifying the outstanding question items during the second and third rounds, respectively. No consensus was reached for 24 items. None of the question items were ranked as 'not essential' after all the rounds.

CONCLUSION

Expert consensus was achieved for a substantial number of question items regarding knowledge and skills for assessment, condition and treatment items of the questionnaire by experienced critical care physiotherapists in Nigeria.

Mapping geographical inequalities in access to drinking water and sanitation facilities in low-income and middle-income countries, 2000-17

BACKGROUND

Universal access to safe drinking water and sanitation facilities is an essential human right, recognised in the Sustainable Development Goals as crucial for preventing disease and improving human wellbeing. Comprehensive, high-resolution estimates are important to inform progress towards achieving this goal. We aimed to produce high-resolution geospatial estimates of access to drinking water and sanitation facilities.

METHODS

We used a Bayesian geostatistical model and data from 600 sources across more than 88 low-income and middle-income countries (LMICs) to estimate access to drinking water and sanitation facilities on continuous continent-wide surfaces from 2000 to 2017, and aggregated results to policy-relevant administrative units. We estimated mutually exclusive and collectively exhaustive subcategories of facilities for drinking water (piped water on or off premises, other improved facilities, unimproved, and surface water) and sanitation facilities (septic or sewer sanitation, other improved, unimproved, and open defecation) with use of ordinal regression. We also estimated the number of diarrhoeal deaths in children younger than 5 years attributed to unsafe facilities and estimated deaths that were averted by increased access to safe facilities in 2017, and analysed geographical inequality in access within LMICs.

FINDINGS

Across LMICs, access to both piped water and improved water overall increased between 2000 and 2017, with progress varying spatially. For piped water, the safest water facility type, access increased from 40·0% (95% uncertainty interval [UI] 39·4-40·7) to 50·3% (50·0-50·5), but was lowest in sub-Saharan Africa, where access to piped water was mostly concentrated in urban centres. Access to both sewer or septic sanitation and improved sanitation overall also increased across all LMICs during the study period. For sewer or septic sanitation, access was 46·3% (95% UI 46·1-46·5) in 2017, compared with 28·7% (28·5-29·0) in 2000. Although some units improved access to the safest drinking water or sanitation facilities since 2000, a large absolute number of people continued to not have access in several units with high access to such facilities (>80%) in 2017. More than 253 000 people did not have access to sewer or septic sanitation facilities in the city of Harare, Zimbabwe, despite 88·6% (95% UI 87·2-89·7) access overall. Many units were able to transition from the least safe facilities in 2000 to safe facilities by 2017; for units in which populations primarily practised open defecation in 2000, 686 (95% UI 664-711) of the 1830 (1797-1863) units transitioned to the use of improved sanitation. Geographical disparities in access to improved water across units decreased in 76·1% (95% UI 71·6-80·7) of countries from 2000 to 2017, and in 53·9% (50·6-59·6) of countries for access to improved sanitation, but remained evident subnationally in most countries in 2017.

INTERPRETATION

Our estimates, combined with geospatial trends in diarrhoeal burden, identify where efforts to increase access to safe drinking water and sanitation facilities are most needed. By highlighting areas with successful approaches or in need of targeted interventions, our estimates can enable precision public health to effectively progress towards universal access to safe water and sanitation.

FUNDING

Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation.

Mapping geographical inequalities in childhood diarrhoeal morbidity and mortality in low-income and middle-income countries, 2000-17: analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2017

BACKGROUND

Across low-income and middle-income countries (LMICs), one in ten deaths in children younger than 5 years is attributable to diarrhoea. The substantial between-country variation in both diarrhoea incidence and mortality is attributable to interventions that protect children, prevent infection, and treat disease. Identifying subnational regions with the highest burden and mapping associated risk factors can aid in reducing preventable childhood diarrhoea.

METHODS

We used Bayesian model-based geostatistics and a geolocated dataset comprising 15 072 746 children younger than 5 years from 466 surveys in 94 LMICs, in combination with findings of the Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study (GBD) 2017, to estimate posterior distributions of diarrhoea prevalence, incidence, and mortality from 2000 to 2017. From these data, we estimated the burden of diarrhoea at varying subnational levels (termed units) by spatially aggregating draws, and we investigated the drivers of subnational patterns by creating aggregated risk factor estimates.

FINDINGS

The greatest declines in diarrhoeal mortality were seen in south and southeast Asia and South America, where 54·0% (95% uncertainty interval [UI] 38·1-65·8), 17·4% (7·7-28·4), and 59·5% (34·2-86·9) of units, respectively, recorded decreases in deaths from diarrhoea greater than 10%. Although children in much of Africa remain at high risk of death due to diarrhoea, regions with the most deaths were outside Africa, with the highest mortality units located in Pakistan. Indonesia showed the greatest within-country geographical inequality; some regions had mortality rates nearly four times the average country rate. Reductions in mortality were correlated to improvements in water, sanitation, and hygiene (WASH) or reductions in child growth failure (CGF). Similarly, most high-risk areas had poor WASH, high CGF, or low oral rehydration therapy coverage.

INTERPRETATION

By co-analysing geospatial trends in diarrhoeal burden and its key risk factors, we could assess candidate drivers of subnational death reduction. Further, by doing a counterfactual analysis of the remaining disease burden using key risk factors, we identified potential intervention strategies for vulnerable populations. In view of the demands for limited resources in LMICs, accurately quantifying the burden of diarrhoea and its drivers is important for precision public health.

FUNDING

Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation.

Global, Regional, and National Burden of Calcific Aortic Valve and Degenerative Mitral Valve Diseases, 1990-2017

BACKGROUND

Nonrheumatic valvular diseases are common; however, no studies have estimated their global or national burden. As part of the Global Burden of Disease Study 2017, mortality, prevalence, and disability-adjusted life-years (DALYs) for calcific aortic valve disease (CAVD), degenerative mitral valve disease, and other nonrheumatic valvular diseases were estimated for 195 countries and territories from 1990 to 2017.

METHODS

Vital registration data, epidemiologic survey data, and administrative hospital data were used to estimate disease burden using the Global Burden of Disease Study modeling framework, which ensures comparability across locations. Geospatial statistical methods were used to estimate disease for all countries, because data on nonrheumatic valvular diseases are extremely limited for some regions of the world, such as Sub-Saharan Africa and South Asia. Results accounted for estimated level of disease severity as well as the estimated availability of valve repair or replacement procedures. DALYs and other measures of health-related burden were generated for both sexes and each 5-year age group, location, and year from 1990 to 2017.

RESULTS

Globally, CAVD and degenerative mitral valve disease caused 102 700 (95% uncertainty interval [UI], 82 700-107 900) and 35 700 (95% UI, 30 500-42 500) deaths, and 12.6 million (95% UI, 11.4 million-13.8 million) and 18.1 million (95% UI, 17.6 million-18.6 million) prevalent cases existed in 2017, respectively. A total of 2.5 million (95% UI, 2.3 million-2.8 million) DALYs were estimated as caused by nonrheumatic valvular diseases globally, representing 0.10% (95% UI, 0.09%-0.11%) of total lost health from all diseases in 2017. The number of DALYs increased for CAVD and degenerative mitral valve disease between 1990 and 2017 by 101% (95% UI, 79%-117%) and 35% (95% UI, 23%-47%), respectively. There is significant geographic variation in the prevalence, mortality rate, and overall burden of these diseases, with highest age-standardized DALY rates of CAVD estimated for high-income countries.

CONCLUSIONS

These global and national estimates demonstrate that CAVD and degenerative mitral valve disease are important causes of disease burden among older adults. Efforts to clarify modifiable risk factors and improve access to valve interventions are necessary if progress is to be made toward reducing, and eventually eliminating, the burden of these highly treatable diseases.

The global, regional, and national burden of cirrhosis by cause in 195 countries and territories, 1990-2017: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2017

BACKGROUND

Cirrhosis and other chronic liver diseases (collectively referred to as cirrhosis in this paper) are a major cause of morbidity and mortality globally, although the burden and underlying causes differ across locations and demographic groups. We report on results from the Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study (GBD) 2017 on the burden of cirrhosis and its trends since 1990, by cause, sex, and age, for 195 countries and territories.

METHODS

We used data from vital registrations, vital registration samples, and verbal autopsies to estimate mortality. We modelled prevalence of total, compensated, and decompensated cirrhosis on the basis of hospital and claims data. Disability-adjusted life-years (DALYs) were calculated as the sum of years of life lost due to premature death and years lived with disability. Estimates are presented as numbers and age-standardised or age-specific rates per 100 000 population, with 95% uncertainty intervals (UIs). All estimates are presented for five causes of cirrhosis: hepatitis B, hepatitis C, alcohol-related liver disease, non-alcoholic steatohepatitis (NASH), and other causes. We compared mortality, prevalence, and DALY estimates with those expected according to the Socio-demographic Index (SDI) as a proxy for the development status of regions and countries.

FINDINGS

In 2017, cirrhosis caused more than 1·32 million (95% UI 1·27-1·45) deaths (440 000 [416 000-518 000; 33·3%] in females and 883 000 [838 000-967 000; 66·7%] in males) globally, compared with less than 899 000 (829 000-948 000) deaths in 1990. Deaths due to cirrhosis constituted 2·4% (2·3-2·6) of total deaths globally in 2017 compared with 1·9% (1·8-2·0) in 1990. Despite an increase in the number of deaths, the age-standardised death rate decreased from 21·0 (19·2-22·3) per 100 000 population in 1990 to 16·5 (15·8-18·1) per 100 000 population in 2017. Sub-Saharan Africa had the highest age-standardised death rate among GBD super-regions for all years of the study period (32·2 [25·8-38·6] deaths per 100 000 population in 2017), and the high-income super-region had the lowest (10·1 [9·8-10·5] deaths per 100 000 population in 2017). The age-standardised death rate decreased or remained constant from 1990 to 2017 in all GBD regions except eastern Europe and central Asia, where the age-standardised death rate increased, primarily due to increases in alcohol-related liver disease prevalence. At the national level, the age-standardised death rate of cirrhosis was lowest in Singapore in 2017 (3·7 [3·3-4·0] per 100 000 in 2017) and highest in Egypt in all years since 1990 (103·3 [64·4-133·4] per 100 000 in 2017). There were 10·6 million (10·3-10·9) prevalent cases of decompensated cirrhosis and 112 million (107-119) prevalent cases of compensated cirrhosis globally in 2017. There was a significant increase in age-standardised prevalence rate of decompensated cirrhosis between 1990 and 2017. Cirrhosis caused by NASH had a steady age-standardised death rate throughout the study period, whereas the other four causes showed declines in age-standardised death rate. The age-standardised prevalence of compensated and decompensated cirrhosis due to NASH increased more than for any other cause of cirrhosis (by 33·2% for compensated cirrhosis and 54·8% for decompensated cirrhosis) over the study period. From 1990 to 2017, the number of prevalent cases more than doubled for compensated cirrhosis due to NASH and more than tripled for decompensated cirrhosis due to NASH. In 2017, age-standardised death and DALY rates were lower among countries and territories with higher SDI.

INTERPRETATION

Cirrhosis imposes a substantial health burden on many countries and this burden has increased at the global level since 1990, partly due to population growth and ageing. Although the age-standardised death and DALY rates of cirrhosis decreased from 1990 to 2017, numbers of deaths and DALYs and the proportion of all global deaths due to cirrhosis increased. Despite the availability of effective interventions for the prevention and treatment of hepatitis B and C, they were still the main causes of cirrhosis burden worldwide, particularly in low-income countries. The impact of hepatitis B and C is expected to be attenuated and overtaken by that of NASH in the near future. Cost-effective interventions are required to continue the prevention and treatment of viral hepatitis, and to achieve early diagnosis and prevention of cirrhosis due to alcohol-related liver disease and NASH.

FUNDING

Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation.

Equivalence in Active Pharmaceutical Ingredient of Generic Antihypertensive Medicines Available in Nigeria (EQUIMEDS): A Case for Further Surveillance

BACKGROUND

Widespread access to good quality antihypertensive medicines is a critical component for reducing premature cardiovascular disease (CVD) mortality. Poor-quality medicines pose serious health concerns; however, there remains a knowledge gap about the quality of cardiovascular medicines available in low- and middle-income countries.

OBJECTIVES

The aim of this study was to determine the quality of generic antihypertensive medicines available in the retail market of a developing country.

METHODS

Samples of the 2 most commonly prescribed classes of antihypertensive medicines were collected from 3 states in 3 different geopolitical zones in Nigeria following a semirandom sampling framework. Medicine samples were purchased by mystery shoppers from 22 pharmacy outlets from 6 local government areas across the 3 states. Medicine quality was determined by measuring the amount of stated active pharmaceutical ingredient using high-performance liquid chromatography with photodiode array detection and classified according to their compliance to the specified pharmacopeia tolerance limits for each antihypertensive drug.

RESULTS

Amlodipine and lisinopril were identified as the most commonly prescribed antihypertensive drugs in Nigeria. In total, 361 samples from 22 pharmacies were collected and tested. In total, 24.6% of amlodipine and 31.9% of lisinopril samples were of substandard quality and significantly more samples purchased in rural (59 of 161, 36.7%) compared with urban (32 of 200, 16%) outlets were found to be of substandard quality (p < 0.001). No falsified samples of either amlodipine or lisinopril were detected. There was large variation in price paid for the antihypertensive medicines (range ₦150 to ₦9,750). Of the 24 pharmacy outlets surveyed, 46% stated that patients did not always require a prescription and 21% had previously reported a medicine as falsified or substandard.

CONCLUSIONS

More than one-quarter of some commonly prescribed antihypertensive medicines available in Nigeria may be of substandard quality. Enhanced quality assurance processes in low- and middle-income countries, such as Nigeria, are needed to support optimum management.

Global, regional, and national age-sex-specific mortality and life expectancy, 1950-2017: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2017

BACKGROUND

Assessments of age-specific mortality and life expectancy have been done by the UN Population Division, Department of Economics and Social Affairs (UNPOP), the United States Census Bureau, WHO, and as part of previous iterations of the Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study (GBD). Previous iterations of the GBD used population estimates from UNPOP, which were not derived in a way that was internally consistent with the estimates of the numbers of deaths in the GBD. The present iteration of the GBD, GBD 2017, improves on previous assessments and provides timely estimates of the mortality experience of populations globally.

METHODS

The GBD uses all available data to produce estimates of mortality rates between 1950 and 2017 for 23 age groups, both sexes, and 918 locations, including 195 countries and territories and subnational locations for 16 countries. Data used include vital registration systems, sample registration systems, household surveys (complete birth histories, summary birth histories, sibling histories), censuses (summary birth histories, household deaths), and Demographic Surveillance Sites. In total, this analysis used 8259 data sources. Estimates of the probability of death between birth and the age of 5 years and between ages 15 and 60 years are generated and then input into a model life table system to produce complete life tables for all locations and years. Fatal discontinuities and mortality due to HIV/AIDS are analysed separately and then incorporated into the estimation. We analyse the relationship between age-specific mortality and development status using the Socio-demographic Index, a composite measure based on fertility under the age of 25 years, education, and income. There are four main methodological improvements in GBD 2017 compared with GBD 2016: 622 additional data sources have been incorporated; new estimates of population, generated by the GBD study, are used; statistical methods used in different components of the analysis have been further standardised and improved; and the analysis has been extended backwards in time by two decades to start in 1950.

FINDINGS

Globally, 18·7% (95% uncertainty interval 18·4-19·0) of deaths were registered in 1950 and that proportion has been steadily increasing since, with 58·8% (58·2-59·3) of all deaths being registered in 2015. At the global level, between 1950 and 2017, life expectancy increased from 48·1 years (46·5-49·6) to 70·5 years (70·1-70·8) for men and from 52·9 years (51·7-54·0) to 75·6 years (75·3-75·9) for women. Despite this overall progress, there remains substantial variation in life expectancy at birth in 2017, which ranges from 49·1 years (46·5-51·7) for men in the Central African Republic to 87·6 years (86·9-88·1) among women in Singapore. The greatest progress across age groups was for children younger than 5 years; under-5 mortality dropped from 216·0 deaths (196·3-238·1) per 1000 livebirths in 1950 to 38·9 deaths (35·6-42·83) per 1000 livebirths in 2017, with huge reductions across countries. Nevertheless, there were still 5·4 million (5·2-5·6) deaths among children younger than 5 years in the world in 2017. Progress has been less pronounced and more variable for adults, especially for adult males, who had stagnant or increasing mortality rates in several countries. The gap between male and female life expectancy between 1950 and 2017, while relatively stable at the global level, shows distinctive patterns across super-regions and has consistently been the largest in central Europe, eastern Europe, and central Asia, and smallest in south Asia. Performance was also variable across countries and time in observed mortality rates compared with those expected on the basis of development.

INTERPRETATION

This analysis of age-sex-specific mortality shows that there are remarkably complex patterns in population mortality across countries. The findings of this study highlight global successes, such as the large decline in under-5 mortality, which reflects significant local, national, and global commitment and investment over several decades. However, they also bring attention to mortality patterns that are a cause for concern, particularly among adult men and, to a lesser extent, women, whose mortality rates have stagnated in many countries over the time period of this study, and in some cases are increasing.

FUNDING

Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation.

Global, regional, and national age-sex-specific mortality for 282 causes of death in 195 countries and territories, 1980-2017: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2017

BACKGROUND

Global development goals increasingly rely on country-specific estimates for benchmarking a nation's progress. To meet this need, the Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study (GBD) 2016 estimated global, regional, national, and, for selected locations, subnational cause-specific mortality beginning in the year 1980. Here we report an update to that study, making use of newly available data and improved methods. GBD 2017 provides a comprehensive assessment of cause-specific mortality for 282 causes in 195 countries and territories from 1980 to 2017.

METHODS

The causes of death database is composed of vital registration (VR), verbal autopsy (VA), registry, survey, police, and surveillance data. GBD 2017 added ten VA studies, 127 country-years of VR data, 502 cancer-registry country-years, and an additional surveillance country-year. Expansions of the GBD cause of death hierarchy resulted in 18 additional causes estimated for GBD 2017. Newly available data led to subnational estimates for five additional countries-Ethiopia, Iran, New Zealand, Norway, and Russia. Deaths assigned International Classification of Diseases (ICD) codes for non-specific, implausible, or intermediate causes of death were reassigned to underlying causes by redistribution algorithms that were incorporated into uncertainty estimation. We used statistical modelling tools developed for GBD, including the Cause of Death Ensemble model (CODEm), to generate cause fractions and cause-specific death rates for each location, year, age, and sex. Instead of using UN estimates as in previous versions, GBD 2017 independently estimated population size and fertility rate for all locations. Years of life lost (YLLs) were then calculated as the sum of each death multiplied by the standard life expectancy at each age. All rates reported here are age-standardised.

FINDINGS

At the broadest grouping of causes of death (Level 1), non-communicable diseases (NCDs) comprised the greatest fraction of deaths, contributing to 73·4% (95% uncertainty interval [UI] 72·5-74·1) of total deaths in 2017, while communicable, maternal, neonatal, and nutritional (CMNN) causes accounted for 18·6% (17·9-19·6), and injuries 8·0% (7·7-8·2). Total numbers of deaths from NCD causes increased from 2007 to 2017 by 22·7% (21·5-23·9), representing an additional 7·61 million (7·20-8·01) deaths estimated in 2017 versus 2007. The death rate from NCDs decreased globally by 7·9% (7·0-8·8). The number of deaths for CMNN causes decreased by 22·2% (20·0-24·0) and the death rate by 31·8% (30·1-33·3). Total deaths from injuries increased by 2·3% (0·5-4·0) between 2007 and 2017, and the death rate from injuries decreased by 13·7% (12·2-15·1) to 57·9 deaths (55·9-59·2) per 100 000 in 2017. Deaths from substance use disorders also increased, rising from 284 000 deaths (268 000-289 000) globally in 2007 to 352 000 (334 000-363 000) in 2017. Between 2007 and 2017, total deaths from conflict and terrorism increased by 118·0% (88·8-148·6). A greater reduction in total deaths and death rates was observed for some CMNN causes among children younger than 5 years than for older adults, such as a 36·4% (32·2-40·6) reduction in deaths from lower respiratory infections for children younger than 5 years compared with a 33·6% (31·2-36·1) increase in adults older than 70 years. Globally, the number of deaths was greater for men than for women at most ages in 2017, except at ages older than 85 years. Trends in global YLLs reflect an epidemiological transition, with decreases in total YLLs from enteric infections, respiratory infections and tuberculosis, and maternal and neonatal disorders between 1990 and 2017; these were generally greater in magnitude at the lowest levels of the Socio-demographic Index (SDI). At the same time, there were large increases in YLLs from neoplasms and cardiovascular diseases. YLL rates decreased across the five leading Level 2 causes in all SDI quintiles. The leading causes of YLLs in 1990-neonatal disorders, lower respiratory infections, and diarrhoeal diseases-were ranked second, fourth, and fifth, in 2017. Meanwhile, estimated YLLs increased for ischaemic heart disease (ranked first in 2017) and stroke (ranked third), even though YLL rates decreased. Population growth contributed to increased total deaths across the 20 leading Level 2 causes of mortality between 2007 and 2017. Decreases in the cause-specific mortality rate reduced the effect of population growth for all but three causes: substance use disorders, neurological disorders, and skin and subcutaneous diseases.

INTERPRETATION

Improvements in global health have been unevenly distributed among populations. Deaths due to injuries, substance use disorders, armed conflict and terrorism, neoplasms, and cardiovascular disease are expanding threats to global health. For causes of death such as lower respiratory and enteric infections, more rapid progress occurred for children than for the oldest adults, and there is continuing disparity in mortality rates by sex across age groups. Reductions in the death rate of some common diseases are themselves slowing or have ceased, primarily for NCDs, and the death rate for selected causes has increased in the past decade.

FUNDING

Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation.

Global, regional, and national age-sex-specific mortality for 282 causes of death in 195 countries and territories, 1980-2017: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2017

BACKGROUND

Global development goals increasingly rely on country-specific estimates for benchmarking a nation's progress. To meet this need, the Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study (GBD) 2016 estimated global, regional, national, and, for selected locations, subnational cause-specific mortality beginning in the year 1980. Here we report an update to that study, making use of newly available data and improved methods. GBD 2017 provides a comprehensive assessment of cause-specific mortality for 282 causes in 195 countries and territories from 1980 to 2017.

METHODS

The causes of death database is composed of vital registration (VR), verbal autopsy (VA), registry, survey, police, and surveillance data. GBD 2017 added ten VA studies, 127 country-years of VR data, 502 cancer-registry country-years, and an additional surveillance country-year. Expansions of the GBD cause of death hierarchy resulted in 18 additional causes estimated for GBD 2017. Newly available data led to subnational estimates for five additional countries-Ethiopia, Iran, New Zealand, Norway, and Russia. Deaths assigned International Classification of Diseases (ICD) codes for non-specific, implausible, or intermediate causes of death were reassigned to underlying causes by redistribution algorithms that were incorporated into uncertainty estimation. We used statistical modelling tools developed for GBD, including the Cause of Death Ensemble model (CODEm), to generate cause fractions and cause-specific death rates for each location, year, age, and sex. Instead of using UN estimates as in previous versions, GBD 2017 independently estimated population size and fertility rate for all locations. Years of life lost (YLLs) were then calculated as the sum of each death multiplied by the standard life expectancy at each age. All rates reported here are age-standardised.

FINDINGS

At the broadest grouping of causes of death (Level 1), non-communicable diseases (NCDs) comprised the greatest fraction of deaths, contributing to 73·4% (95% uncertainty interval [UI] 72·5-74·1) of total deaths in 2017, while communicable, maternal, neonatal, and nutritional (CMNN) causes accounted for 18·6% (17·9-19·6), and injuries 8·0% (7·7-8·2). Total numbers of deaths from NCD causes increased from 2007 to 2017 by 22·7% (21·5-23·9), representing an additional 7·61 million (7·20-8·01) deaths estimated in 2017 versus 2007. The death rate from NCDs decreased globally by 7·9% (7·0-8·8). The number of deaths for CMNN causes decreased by 22·2% (20·0-24·0) and the death rate by 31·8% (30·1-33·3). Total deaths from injuries increased by 2·3% (0·5-4·0) between 2007 and 2017, and the death rate from injuries decreased by 13·7% (12·2-15·1) to 57·9 deaths (55·9-59·2) per 100 000 in 2017. Deaths from substance use disorders also increased, rising from 284 000 deaths (268 000-289 000) globally in 2007 to 352 000 (334 000-363 000) in 2017. Between 2007 and 2017, total deaths from conflict and terrorism increased by 118·0% (88·8-148·6). A greater reduction in total deaths and death rates was observed for some CMNN causes among children younger than 5 years than for older adults, such as a 36·4% (32·2-40·6) reduction in deaths from lower respiratory infections for children younger than 5 years compared with a 33·6% (31·2-36·1) increase in adults older than 70 years. Globally, the number of deaths was greater for men than for women at most ages in 2017, except at ages older than 85 years. Trends in global YLLs reflect an epidemiological transition, with decreases in total YLLs from enteric infections, respiratory infections and tuberculosis, and maternal and neonatal disorders between 1990 and 2017; these were generally greater in magnitude at the lowest levels of the Socio-demographic Index (SDI). At the same time, there were large increases in YLLs from neoplasms and cardiovascular diseases. YLL rates decreased across the five leading Level 2 causes in all SDI quintiles. The leading causes of YLLs in 1990-neonatal disorders, lower respiratory infections, and diarrhoeal diseases-were ranked second, fourth, and fifth, in 2017. Meanwhile, estimated YLLs increased for ischaemic heart disease (ranked first in 2017) and stroke (ranked third), even though YLL rates decreased. Population growth contributed to increased total deaths across the 20 leading Level 2 causes of mortality between 2007 and 2017. Decreases in the cause-specific mortality rate reduced the effect of population growth for all but three causes: substance use disorders, neurological disorders, and skin and subcutaneous diseases.

INTERPRETATION

Improvements in global health have been unevenly distributed among populations. Deaths due to injuries, substance use disorders, armed conflict and terrorism, neoplasms, and cardiovascular disease are expanding threats to global health. For causes of death such as lower respiratory and enteric infections, more rapid progress occurred for children than for the oldest adults, and there is continuing disparity in mortality rates by sex across age groups. Reductions in the death rate of some common diseases are themselves slowing or have ceased, primarily for NCDs, and the death rate for selected causes has increased in the past decade.

FUNDING

Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation.

Measuring progress from 1990 to 2017 and projecting attainment to 2030 of the health-related Sustainable Development Goals for 195 countries and territories: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2017

BACKGROUND

Efforts to establish the 2015 baseline and monitor early implementation of the UN Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs) highlight both great potential for and threats to improving health by 2030. To fully deliver on the SDG aim of "leaving no one behind", it is increasingly important to examine the health-related SDGs beyond national-level estimates. As part of the Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study 2017 (GBD 2017), we measured progress on 41 of 52 health-related SDG indicators and estimated the health-related SDG index for 195 countries and territories for the period 1990-2017, projected indicators to 2030, and analysed global attainment.

METHODS

We measured progress on 41 health-related SDG indicators from 1990 to 2017, an increase of four indicators since GBD 2016 (new indicators were health worker density, sexual violence by non-intimate partners, population census status, and prevalence of physical and sexual violence [reported separately]). We also improved the measurement of several previously reported indicators. We constructed national-level estimates and, for a subset of health-related SDGs, examined indicator-level differences by sex and Socio-demographic Index (SDI) quintile. We also did subnational assessments of performance for selected countries. To construct the health-related SDG index, we transformed the value for each indicator on a scale of 0-100, with 0 as the 2·5th percentile and 100 as the 97·5th percentile of 1000 draws calculated from 1990 to 2030, and took the geometric mean of the scaled indicators by target. To generate projections through 2030, we used a forecasting framework that drew estimates from the broader GBD study and used weighted averages of indicator-specific and country-specific annualised rates of change from 1990 to 2017 to inform future estimates. We assessed attainment of indicators with defined targets in two ways: first, using mean values projected for 2030, and then using the probability of attainment in 2030 calculated from 1000 draws. We also did a global attainment analysis of the feasibility of attaining SDG targets on the basis of past trends. Using 2015 global averages of indicators with defined SDG targets, we calculated the global annualised rates of change required from 2015 to 2030 to meet these targets, and then identified in what percentiles the required global annualised rates of change fell in the distribution of country-level rates of change from 1990 to 2015. We took the mean of these global percentile values across indicators and applied the past rate of change at this mean global percentile to all health-related SDG indicators, irrespective of target definition, to estimate the equivalent 2030 global average value and percentage change from 2015 to 2030 for each indicator.

FINDINGS

The global median health-related SDG index in 2017 was 59·4 (IQR 35·4-67·3), ranging from a low of 11·6 (95% uncertainty interval 9·6-14·0) to a high of 84·9 (83·1-86·7). SDG index values in countries assessed at the subnational level varied substantially, particularly in China and India, although scores in Japan and the UK were more homogeneous. Indicators also varied by SDI quintile and sex, with males having worse outcomes than females for non-communicable disease (NCD) mortality, alcohol use, and smoking, among others. Most countries were projected to have a higher health-related SDG index in 2030 than in 2017, while country-level probabilities of attainment by 2030 varied widely by indicator. Under-5 mortality, neonatal mortality, maternal mortality ratio, and malaria indicators had the most countries with at least 95% probability of target attainment. Other indicators, including NCD mortality and suicide mortality, had no countries projected to meet corresponding SDG targets on the basis of projected mean values for 2030 but showed some probability of attainment by 2030. For some indicators, including child malnutrition, several infectious diseases, and most violence measures, the annualised rates of change required to meet SDG targets far exceeded the pace of progress achieved by any country in the recent past. We found that applying the mean global annualised rate of change to indicators without defined targets would equate to about 19% and 22% reductions in global smoking and alcohol consumption, respectively; a 47% decline in adolescent birth rates; and a more than 85% increase in health worker density per 1000 population by 2030.

INTERPRETATION

The GBD study offers a unique, robust platform for monitoring the health-related SDGs across demographic and geographic dimensions. Our findings underscore the importance of increased collection and analysis of disaggregated data and highlight where more deliberate design or targeting of interventions could accelerate progress in attaining the SDGs. Current projections show that many health-related SDG indicators, NCDs, NCD-related risks, and violence-related indicators will require a concerted shift away from what might have driven past gains-curative interventions in the case of NCDs-towards multisectoral, prevention-oriented policy action and investments to achieve SDG aims. Notably, several targets, if they are to be met by 2030, demand a pace of progress that no country has achieved in the recent past. The future is fundamentally uncertain, and no model can fully predict what breakthroughs or events might alter the course of the SDGs. What is clear is that our actions-or inaction-today will ultimately dictate how close the world, collectively, can get to leaving no one behind by 2030.

FUNDING

Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation.

Global, regional, and national comparative risk assessment of 84 behavioural, environmental and occupational, and metabolic risks or clusters of risks for 195 countries and territories, 1990-2017: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2017

BACKGROUND

The Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study (GBD) 2017 comparative risk assessment (CRA) is a comprehensive approach to risk factor quantification that offers a useful tool for synthesising evidence on risks and risk-outcome associations. With each annual GBD study, we update the GBD CRA to incorporate improved methods, new risks and risk-outcome pairs, and new data on risk exposure levels and risk-outcome associations.

METHODS

We used the CRA framework developed for previous iterations of GBD to estimate levels and trends in exposure, attributable deaths, and attributable disability-adjusted life-years (DALYs), by age group, sex, year, and location for 84 behavioural, environmental and occupational, and metabolic risks or groups of risks from 1990 to 2017. This study included 476 risk-outcome pairs that met the GBD study criteria for convincing or probable evidence of causation. We extracted relative risk and exposure estimates from 46 749 randomised controlled trials, cohort studies, household surveys, census data, satellite data, and other sources. We used statistical models to pool data, adjust for bias, and incorporate covariates. Using the counterfactual scenario of theoretical minimum risk exposure level (TMREL), we estimated the portion of deaths and DALYs that could be attributed to a given risk. We explored the relationship between development and risk exposure by modelling the relationship between the Socio-demographic Index (SDI) and risk-weighted exposure prevalence and estimated expected levels of exposure and risk-attributable burden by SDI. Finally, we explored temporal changes in risk-attributable DALYs by decomposing those changes into six main component drivers of change as follows: (1) population growth; (2) changes in population age structures; (3) changes in exposure to environmental and occupational risks; (4) changes in exposure to behavioural risks; (5) changes in exposure to metabolic risks; and (6) changes due to all other factors, approximated as the risk-deleted death and DALY rates, where the risk-deleted rate is the rate that would be observed had we reduced the exposure levels to the TMREL for all risk factors included in GBD 2017.

FINDINGS

In 2017, 34·1 million (95% uncertainty interval [UI] 33·3-35·0) deaths and 1·21 billion (1·14-1·28) DALYs were attributable to GBD risk factors. Globally, 61·0% (59·6-62·4) of deaths and 48·3% (46·3-50·2) of DALYs were attributed to the GBD 2017 risk factors. When ranked by risk-attributable DALYs, high systolic blood pressure (SBP) was the leading risk factor, accounting for 10·4 million (9·39-11·5) deaths and 218 million (198-237) DALYs, followed by smoking (7·10 million [6·83-7·37] deaths and 182 million [173-193] DALYs), high fasting plasma glucose (6·53 million [5·23-8·23] deaths and 171 million [144-201] DALYs), high body-mass index (BMI; 4·72 million [2·99-6·70] deaths and 148 million [98·6-202] DALYs), and short gestation for birthweight (1·43 million [1·36-1·51] deaths and 139 million [131-147] DALYs). In total, risk-attributable DALYs declined by 4·9% (3·3-6·5) between 2007 and 2017. In the absence of demographic changes (ie, population growth and ageing), changes in risk exposure and risk-deleted DALYs would have led to a 23·5% decline in DALYs during that period. Conversely, in the absence of changes in risk exposure and risk-deleted DALYs, demographic changes would have led to an 18·6% increase in DALYs during that period. The ratios of observed risk exposure levels to exposure levels expected based on SDI (O/E ratios) increased globally for unsafe drinking water and household air pollution between 1990 and 2017. This result suggests that development is occurring more rapidly than are changes in the underlying risk structure in a population. Conversely, nearly universal declines in O/E ratios for smoking and alcohol use indicate that, for a given SDI, exposure to these risks is declining. In 2017, the leading Level 4 risk factor for age-standardised DALY rates was high SBP in four super-regions: central Europe, eastern Europe, and central Asia; north Africa and Middle East; south Asia; and southeast Asia, east Asia, and Oceania. The leading risk factor in the high-income super-region was smoking, in Latin America and Caribbean was high BMI, and in sub-Saharan Africa was unsafe sex. O/E ratios for unsafe sex in sub-Saharan Africa were notably high, and those for alcohol use in north Africa and the Middle East were notably low.

INTERPRETATION

By quantifying levels and trends in exposures to risk factors and the resulting disease burden, this assessment offers insight into where past policy and programme efforts might have been successful and highlights current priorities for public health action. Decreases in behavioural, environmental, and occupational risks have largely offset the effects of population growth and ageing, in relation to trends in absolute burden. Conversely, the combination of increasing metabolic risks and population ageing will probably continue to drive the increasing trends in non-communicable diseases at the global level, which presents both a public health challenge and opportunity. We see considerable spatiotemporal heterogeneity in levels of risk exposure and risk-attributable burden. Although levels of development underlie some of this heterogeneity, O/E ratios show risks for which countries are overperforming or underperforming relative to their level of development. As such, these ratios provide a benchmarking tool to help to focus local decision making. Our findings reinforce the importance of both risk exposure monitoring and epidemiological research to assess causal connections between risks and health outcomes, and they highlight the usefulness of the GBD study in synthesising data to draw comprehensive and robust conclusions that help to inform good policy and strategic health planning.

FUNDING

Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation.

Physical activity profile of Nigeria: implications for research, surveillance and policy

Appraising the status of physical activity surveillance, research and policy in Nigeria is relevant to national and regional public health actions on physical activity promotion and non-communicable disease control. This study aimed to 1) evaluate the physical activity profile of Nigeria and 2) propose strategies for improving physical activity in the country. The Global Observatory for Physical Activity-GoPA! with inputs from local experts systematically collected sociodemographic and physical activity surveillance, national policy and research indicators data for Nigeria in 2014. The Nigerian Country Card highlighting the status of these indicators was developed in 2015 and launched in 2016. Prevalence of physical activity among Nigerian adults was 78% (female=76%, male=79%). There was no physical activity surveillance system and national plan, and no empirical data on the proportion of all deaths directly due to physical inactivity in Nigeria. Few (n=7) articles related to physical activity and public health were published in 2013 and the country occupied the 38th position in the global research ranking, contributing about 0.24% to physical activity research worldwide. Implementing national physical activity plans and multi-sectorial collaborations between government and non-governmental partners are needed to improve physical activity surveillance, research and policy in Nigeria and other African countries with similar physical activity gaps.

Measuring performance on the Healthcare Access and Quality Index for 195 countries and territories and selected subnational locations: a systematic analysis from the Global Burden of Disease Study 2016

BACKGROUND

A key component of achieving universal health coverage is ensuring that all populations have access to quality health care. Examining where gains have occurred or progress has faltered across and within countries is crucial to guiding decisions and strategies for future improvement. We used the Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study 2016 (GBD 2016) to assess personal health-care access and quality with the Healthcare Access and Quality (HAQ) Index for 195 countries and territories, as well as subnational locations in seven countries, from 1990 to 2016.

METHODS

Drawing from established methods and updated estimates from GBD 2016, we used 32 causes from which death should not occur in the presence of effective care to approximate personal health-care access and quality by location and over time. To better isolate potential effects of personal health-care access and quality from underlying risk factor patterns, we risk-standardised cause-specific deaths due to non-cancers by location-year, replacing the local joint exposure of environmental and behavioural risks with the global level of exposure. Supported by the expansion of cancer registry data in GBD 2016, we used mortality-to-incidence ratios for cancers instead of risk-standardised death rates to provide a stronger signal of the effects of personal health care and access on cancer survival. We transformed each cause to a scale of 0-100, with 0 as the first percentile (worst) observed between 1990 and 2016, and 100 as the 99th percentile (best); we set these thresholds at the country level, and then applied them to subnational locations. We applied a principal components analysis to construct the HAQ Index using all scaled cause values, providing an overall score of 0-100 of personal health-care access and quality by location over time. We then compared HAQ Index levels and trends by quintiles on the Socio-demographic Index (SDI), a summary measure of overall development. As derived from the broader GBD study and other data sources, we examined relationships between national HAQ Index scores and potential correlates of performance, such as total health spending per capita.

FINDINGS

In 2016, HAQ Index performance spanned from a high of 97·1 (95% UI 95·8-98·1) in Iceland, followed by 96·6 (94·9-97·9) in Norway and 96·1 (94·5-97·3) in the Netherlands, to values as low as 18·6 (13·1-24·4) in the Central African Republic, 19·0 (14·3-23·7) in Somalia, and 23·4 (20·2-26·8) in Guinea-Bissau. The pace of progress achieved between 1990 and 2016 varied, with markedly faster improvements occurring between 2000 and 2016 for many countries in sub-Saharan Africa and southeast Asia, whereas several countries in Latin America and elsewhere saw progress stagnate after experiencing considerable advances in the HAQ Index between 1990 and 2000. Striking subnational disparities emerged in personal health-care access and quality, with China and India having particularly large gaps between locations with the highest and lowest scores in 2016. In China, performance ranged from 91·5 (89·1-93·6) in Beijing to 48·0 (43·4-53·2) in Tibet (a 43·5-point difference), while India saw a 30·8-point disparity, from 64·8 (59·6-68·8) in Goa to 34·0 (30·3-38·1) in Assam. Japan recorded the smallest range in subnational HAQ performance in 2016 (a 4·8-point difference), whereas differences between subnational locations with the highest and lowest HAQ Index values were more than two times as high for the USA and three times as high for England. State-level gaps in the HAQ Index in Mexico somewhat narrowed from 1990 to 2016 (from a 20·9-point to 17·0-point difference), whereas in Brazil, disparities slightly increased across states during this time (a 17·2-point to 20·4-point difference). Performance on the HAQ Index showed strong linkages to overall development, with high and high-middle SDI countries generally having higher scores and faster gains for non-communicable diseases. Nonetheless, countries across the development spectrum saw substantial gains in some key health service areas from 2000 to 2016, most notably vaccine-preventable diseases. Overall, national performance on the HAQ Index was positively associated with higher levels of total health spending per capita, as well as health systems inputs, but these relationships were quite heterogeneous, particularly among low-to-middle SDI countries.

INTERPRETATION

GBD 2016 provides a more detailed understanding of past success and current challenges in improving personal health-care access and quality worldwide. Despite substantial gains since 2000, many low-SDI and middle-SDI countries face considerable challenges unless heightened policy action and investments focus on advancing access to and quality of health care across key health services, especially non-communicable diseases. Stagnating or minimal improvements experienced by several low-middle to high-middle SDI countries could reflect the complexities of re-orienting both primary and secondary health-care services beyond the more limited foci of the Millennium Development Goals. Alongside initiatives to strengthen public health programmes, the pursuit of universal health coverage hinges upon improving both access and quality worldwide, and thus requires adopting a more comprehensive view-and subsequent provision-of quality health care for all populations.

FUNDING

Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation.

Global, regional, and national under-5 mortality, adult mortality, age-specific mortality, and life expectancy, 1970-2016: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2016

BACKGROUND

Detailed assessments of mortality patterns, particularly age-specific mortality, represent a crucial input that enables health systems to target interventions to specific populations. Understanding how all-cause mortality has changed with respect to development status can identify exemplars for best practice. To accomplish this, the Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study 2016 (GBD 2016) estimated age-specific and sex-specific all-cause mortality between 1970 and 2016 for 195 countries and territories and at the subnational level for the five countries with a population greater than 200 million in 2016.

METHODS

We have evaluated how well civil registration systems captured deaths using a set of demographic methods called death distribution methods for adults and from consideration of survey and census data for children younger than 5 years. We generated an overall assessment of completeness of registration of deaths by dividing registered deaths in each location-year by our estimate of all-age deaths generated from our overall estimation process. For 163 locations, including subnational units in countries with a population greater than 200 million with complete vital registration (VR) systems, our estimates were largely driven by the observed data, with corrections for small fluctuations in numbers and estimation for recent years where there were lags in data reporting (lags were variable by location, generally between 1 year and 6 years). For other locations, we took advantage of different data sources available to measure under-5 mortality rates (U5MR) using complete birth histories, summary birth histories, and incomplete VR with adjustments; we measured adult mortality rate (the probability of death in individuals aged 15-60 years) using adjusted incomplete VR, sibling histories, and household death recall. We used the U5MR and adult mortality rate, together with crude death rate due to HIV in the GBD model life table system, to estimate age-specific and sex-specific death rates for each location-year. Using various international databases, we identified fatal discontinuities, which we defined as increases in the death rate of more than one death per million, resulting from conflict and terrorism, natural disasters, major transport or technological accidents, and a subset of epidemic infectious diseases; these were added to estimates in the relevant years. In 47 countries with an identified peak adult prevalence for HIV/AIDS of more than 0·5% and where VR systems were less than 65% complete, we informed our estimates of age-sex-specific mortality using the Estimation and Projection Package (EPP)-Spectrum model fitted to national HIV/AIDS prevalence surveys and antenatal clinic serosurveillance systems. We estimated stillbirths, early neonatal, late neonatal, and childhood mortality using both survey and VR data in spatiotemporal Gaussian process regression models. We estimated abridged life tables for all location-years using age-specific death rates. We grouped locations into development quintiles based on the Socio-demographic Index (SDI) and analysed mortality trends by quintile. Using spline regression, we estimated the expected mortality rate for each age-sex group as a function of SDI. We identified countries with higher life expectancy than expected by comparing observed life expectancy to anticipated life expectancy on the basis of development status alone.

FINDINGS

Completeness in the registration of deaths increased from 28% in 1970 to a peak of 45% in 2013; completeness was lower after 2013 because of lags in reporting. Total deaths in children younger than 5 years decreased from 1970 to 2016, and slower decreases occurred at ages 5-24 years. By contrast, numbers of adult deaths increased in each 5-year age bracket above the age of 25 years. The distribution of annualised rates of change in age-specific mortality rate differed over the period 2000 to 2016 compared with earlier decades: increasing annualised rates of change were less frequent, although rising annualised rates of change still occurred in some locations, particularly for adolescent and younger adult age groups. Rates of stillbirths and under-5 mortality both decreased globally from 1970. Evidence for global convergence of death rates was mixed; although the absolute difference between age-standardised death rates narrowed between countries at the lowest and highest levels of SDI, the ratio of these death rates-a measure of relative inequality-increased slightly. There was a strong shift between 1970 and 2016 toward higher life expectancy, most noticeably at higher levels of SDI. Among countries with populations greater than 1 million in 2016, life expectancy at birth was highest for women in Japan, at 86·9 years (95% UI 86·7-87·2), and for men in Singapore, at 81·3 years (78·8-83·7) in 2016. Male life expectancy was generally lower than female life expectancy between 1970 and 2016, and the gap between male and female life expectancy increased with progression to higher levels of SDI. Some countries with exceptional health performance in 1990 in terms of the difference in observed to expected life expectancy at birth had slower progress on the same measure in 2016.

INTERPRETATION

Globally, mortality rates have decreased across all age groups over the past five decades, with the largest improvements occurring among children younger than 5 years. However, at the national level, considerable heterogeneity remains in terms of both level and rate of changes in age-specific mortality; increases in mortality for certain age groups occurred in some locations. We found evidence that the absolute gap between countries in age-specific death rates has declined, although the relative gap for some age-sex groups increased. Countries that now lead in terms of having higher observed life expectancy than that expected on the basis of development alone, or locations that have either increased this advantage or rapidly decreased the deficit from expected levels, could provide insight into the means to accelerate progress in nations where progress has stalled.

FUNDING

Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation, and the National Institute on Aging and the National Institute of Mental Health of the National Institutes of Health.

Relationships between respiratory parameters, exercise capacity and psychosocial factors in people with chronic obstructive pulmonary disease

BACKGROUND

Chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (COPD) affects respiratory functioning and psychosocial factors. However, little is known about perceived ability of people with COPD to engage in a regular exercise program. This study assessed respiratory parameters, exercise capacity, psychosocial factors and their relations in people with COPD.

METHODS

This cross-sectional study involved patients with COPD recruited from a Nigerian university teaching hospital. Respiratory parameters including forced expiratory volume in 1sec (FEV₁) and forced vital capacity (FVC) were assessed by using a spirometer and FEV₁/FVC ratio was calculated. Participants were sitting upright in a comfortable chair and wearing a nose clip for measurements. The procedure was performed in accordance with the American Thoracic Society criteria. Exercise capacity was assessed by the 6-min walk test (6MWT). Gait speed was assessed by the distance covered in 6min. Perceived exercise self-efficacy (PESE) and rating of perceived exertion (RPE) were assessed by exercise self-efficacy and Borg scales, respectively. Data were analysed using descriptive and inferential statistics. Alpha level was set at P<0.05.

RESULTS

The mean age of the 125 participants was 62.0±7.1years (60% male). The mean values for FEV₁, FVC and FEV₁/FVC were 1.8±0.6L, 2.4±0.5L and 58.0±8.8%, respectively, and the mean 6MWT and PESE values were 291.1±41.6m 63.1±11.2%. Exercise capacity was correlated with mean values for the respiratory parameters FEV₁ (r=0.29; P=0.035), FVC (r=0.32; P=0.045) and FEV₁/FVC ratio (r=0.37; P=0.007), and both exercise capacity and PESE were correlated with gait speed (r=0.96, P=0.001 and r=0.57; P=0.042) and RPE (r=0.42, P=0.050 and r=-0.44; P=0.032), but PESE was not correlated with respiratory parameter values (P>0.05).

CONCLUSION

Participants with COPD demonstrated reduced respiratory parameter values and low exercise capacity but moderate PESE. We found significant correlations between exercise capacity and respiratory parameter values, but PESE was correlated with only gait speed and RPE. The study has implications for respiratory health promotion and exercise adherence.

Physicochemical equivalence of generic antihypertensive medicines (EQUIMEDS): protocol for a quality of medicines assessment

Background

Prevention and optimal management of hypertension in the general population is paramount to the achievement of the World Heart Federation (WHF) goal of reducing premature cardiovascular disease (CVD) mortality by 25% by the year 2025 and widespread access to good quality antihypertensive medicines is a critical component for achieving the goal. Despite research and evidence relating to other medicines such as antimalarials and antibiotics, there is very little known about the quality of generic antihypertensive medicines in low-income and middle-income countries. The aim of this study was to determine the physicochemical equivalence (percentage of active pharmaceutical ingredient, API) of generic antihypertensive medicines available in the retail market of a developing country.

Methods

An observational design will be adopted, which includes literature search, landscape assessment, collection and analysis of medicine samples. To determine physicochemical equivalence, a multistage sampling process will be used, including (1) identification of the 2 most commonly prescribed classes of antihypertensive medicines prescribed in Nigeria; (2) identification of a random sample of 10 generics from within each of the 2 most commonly prescribed classes; (3) a geographical representative sampling process to identify a random sample of 24 retail outlets in Nigeria; (4) representative sample purchasing, processing to assess the quality of medicines, storage and transport; and (5) assessment of the physical and chemical equivalence of the collected samples compared to the API in the relevant class. In total, 20 samples from each of 24 pharmacies will be tested (total of 480 samples).

Discussion

Availability of and access to quality antihypertensive medicines globally is therefore a vital strategy needed to achieve the WHF 25×25 targets. However, there is currently a scarcity of knowledge about the quality of antihypertensive medicines available in developing countries. Such information is important for enforcing and for ensuring the quality of antihypertensive medicines.

Incidence and pattern of cardiovascular disease in a Nigerian teaching hospital

Epidemiological data on cardiovascular disorders are generally lacking in the developing nations. The aim of this study was to assess the five years' incidence and pattern of cardiovascular disease in a NigerianTeaching Hospital. The records of patients diagnosed as having various cardiovascular disorders between 1997 and 2001 were scrutinized. Data such as age, sex, diagnosis, length of hospitalization and status at discharge (dead or alive) were obtained. A total number of 1104 patients were recorded. Heart failure (35%) followed by hypertension (32%) was found to be the most prevalent.

Translation, cross-cultural adaptation and psychometric evaluation of yoruba version of the short-form 36 health survey

Background and objective

The Short-Form Health Survey (SF-36) is a valid quality of life tool often employed to determine the impact of medical intervention and the outcome of health care services. However, the SF-36 is culturally sensitive which necessitates its adaptation and translation into different languages. This study was conducted to cross-culturally adapt the SF-36 into Yoruba language and determine its reliability and validity.

Methods

Based on the International Quality of Life Assessment project guidelines, a sequence of translation, test of item-scale correlation, and validation was implemented for the translation of the Yoruba version of the SF-36. Following pilot testing, the English and the Yoruba versions of the SF-36 were administered to a random sample of 1087 apparently healthy individuals to test validity and 249 respondents completed the Yoruba SF-36 again after two weeks to test reliability. Data was analyzed using Pearson’s product moment correlation analysis, independent t-test, one-way analysis of variance, multi trait scaling analysis and Intra-Class Correlation (ICC) at p < 0.05.

Results

The concurrent validity scores for scales and domains ranges between 0.749 and 0.902 with the highest and lowest scores in the General Health (0.902) and Bodily Pain (0.749) scale. Scale-level descriptive result showed that all scale and domain scores had negative skewness ranging from −2.08 to −0.98. The mean scores for each scales ranges between 83.2 and 88.8. The domain scores for Physical Health Component and Mental Health Component were 85.6 ± 13.7 and 85.9 ± 15.4 respectively. The convergent validity was satisfactory, ranging from 0.421 to 0.907. Discriminant validity was also satisfactory except for item ‘1’. The ICC for the test-retest reliability of the Yoruba SF-36 ranges between 0.636 and 0.843 for scales; and 0.783 and 0.851 for domains.

Conclusion

The data quality, concurrent and discriminant validity, reliability and internal consistency of the Yoruba version of the SF-36 are adequate and it is recommended for measuring health-related quality of life among Yoruba population.

Prevalence and modes of complementary and alternative medicine use among peasant farmers with musculoskeletal pain in a rural community in South-Western Nigeria

BACKGROUND

Anecdotally, use of Complementary and Alternative Medicine (CAM) for Musculoskeletal Pain (MSP) is common in Nigeria; however, there seems to be a dearth of empirical data on its prevalence and mode of use. This study investigated the prevalence and modes of use of CAM for MSP among farmers in a rural community in South-western Nigeria.

METHODS

This cross-sectional survey employed multistage sampling technique guidelines for conducting community survey by the World Health Organization among rural community farmers in Gudugbu village, Oyo State, Nigeria. A questionnaire developed from previous studies and validated by expert reviews was used to assess prevalence and modes of CAM use. Data was analyzed using descriptive and inferential statistics. Alpha level was set at p < 0.05.

RESULTS

A total of 230 consenting rural farmers volunteered for this study with a valid response rate of 93.9 % (n = 216). The lifetime, 12-month and point prevalence of CAM for MSP was 96.8 % respectively. Herbal therapy and massage were the predominant types of CAM therapies among previous (83.8 and 80.1 %) and current CAM users (37.5 and 37.5 %). CAM was largely used as sole therapy for MSP (75.5 %) and also in combination with orthodox medicine (23.6 %), and it is consumed on daily basis (21.8 %). CAM was perceived to be very good in maintaining a healthy life (87.1 %) and has less side effects (74 %) and more healthy than taking doctors' prescriptions (63.4 %).

CONCLUSION

There is a high prevalence of CAM among Nigerian rural farmers. The most commonly employed CAM for MSP were herbal remedies and massage which are attributable to beliefs on their perceived efficacy.

Comparative functional exercise capacity of patients with type 2-diabetes and healthy controls: a case control study

Introduction

Functional Exercise Capacity (FEC) is a valid measure of physical fitness in health and disease. However, there is paucity of studies on FEC in African patients with Type-2 Diabetes (T2D). This study compared FEC between patients with T2D and healthy controls.

Methods

Thirty five patients with T2D (18 men, 17 women) and 35 (16 men, 19 women) age-sex matched healthy controls participated in this case-control study. Anthropometric and demographic characteristics and cardiovascular parameters were measured following standard procedures. A glucometer was used to determine the Fasting Blood Glucose (FBG) level following at least 8 hours of overnight fasting. FEC was assessed using the Six-Minute Walk Test (6MWT) while Hand Grip Strength (HGS) test was measured with an electronic dynamometer. Data were analyzed using descriptive and inferential statistics. Alpha level was set at p< 0.05.

Results

Patients with T2D and controls were similar in age (p > 0.05). There were significant differences in the distance covered during 6MWT between patients and controls (t= 0.329; p =0.03), exercise capacity (t = 0.329; p = 0.03), FBG (t = 7.403; p = 0.001), systolic and diastolic blood pressure (t = 12.56; p = 0.001 and t = 27.23; p = 0.001) respectively. There were significant inverse relationships between 6MWD and Body mass index (r = -0.39; p = 0.02) and FBS(r = -0.51; p = 0.02) in patients with type-2 respectively. No significant association was found between exercise capacity and HGS (p > 0.05).

Conclusion

Patients with type-2 diabetes demonstrated lower functional exercise capacity than healthy controls. High body mass index and fasting blood glucose were significantly associated with lower functional exercise capacity.

Effects of ultraviolet radiation (type B) on wound exudates, appearance and depth description

Purulent exudate is one of the clinical signs of decubitus ulcers; and it is indicative of infection. The greatest challenge is the decreasing sensitivity of infective micro-organisms to antibiotics. There appears to be paucity of data on the effect of Ultraviolet radiation on wound exudates and appearance. The main purpose of this study was to determine the effect of ultraviolet radiation (Type B) on wound exudates and appearance of decubitus ulcers. Ten (10) bed-ridden subjects with ascertained bilateral sore from unrelieved pressure in their lower extremities consented to participate in the study. The decubitus ulcers were treated with traditional saline-wet-to-moist (WM) wound dressing. The decubitus ulcers on the left lower extremities were the experimental limbs and were exposed to ultraviolet radiation as adjunct while the right lower limbs served as control and received only the saline-wet-to-moist (WM) wound dressing. The frequency of treatment was 3 times per week for 6 weeks. The type of exudates produced, amount of exudates, wound appearance and depth description were scored on a 5-point likert scale. The data was analyzed using descriptive statistics and non-parametric inferential statistics (Kruska-Wallis test). The result of the Kruskal Wallis test showed that there was significant improvement in the type of exudates produced by the decubitus ulcers of the experimental (left) limbs (X{2} = 33.71, p < 0.00) when compared with the control limbs. Similarly, there was significant reduction in the amount of exudates produced by the decubitus ulcers of the experimental limbs (X{2} = 30.58, p < 0.00) when compared with that of the control. Also, there was significant improvement in the appearance of the decubitus ulcers (X{2} = 33.01, p< 0.00) and depth description of the experimental (left) limbs compared to that of the control (right). This study concluded that Ultraviolet radiation (Type B) can significantly improve the appearance of decubitus ulcers. Also, it can significantly reduce the amount of purulent exudates and can hasten skin replacement of decubitus ulcers.

Prediction of functional capacity during six-minute walk among patients with chronic heart failure

BACKGROUND

Formulae for predicting functional capacity during 6-minute walk are lacking and the accuracy of the existing formulae has been challenged in deferent populations.

AIMS

The purpose of this study was to develop an equation that would be useful in predicting functional capacity in form of maximum oxygen consumption) (V0 2 ) in Chronic Heart Failure Patients (CHF) during exercise.

METHODS

Sixty-five subjects were recruited for the study. The procedure required the subjects to walk on a self paced speed on a 20 meter marked level ground for 6 minutes. The distance covered in 6 minutes was measured and the speed calculated.

RESULTS

The result showed that the distance covered was highly correlated with the VO2 (0.65, p< 0.01). The regression analysis revealed that a linear equation model developed was a good predictor of V0 2 for the group.

CONCLUSION

The study concluded that in situation where sophisticated equipments are lacking, this equation might be useful during exercise supervision for patients with CHF. [VO2 (mlkg-1 min-1) = 0.0105 x distance (m) + 0.0238 age (yr) - 0.03085 weight (kg) + 5.598].

Obesity prevalence in adult residents of Ile-Ife, Nigeria

BACKGROUND AND PURPOSE

Few data on obesity exist on Sub-Sahara population in Africa. This study investigated the prevalence of obesity and Body Mass Index (BMI) percentile and quartiles in accordance with sex and age in adult residents of the historic ancient semi-urban community of Ile-Ife, South-West, Nigeria.

MATERIALS AND METHODS

2097 adults aged 21 years and above were recruited into the door-to-door survey through a multi-stage cluster sampling technique. The World Health Organization (WHO) criteria based on BMI was used in the definition of overweight and obesity. Height and weight were measured using standardized procedures.

RESULTS

The mean age and BMI of the participants were 44.2 years and 24.2 Kg/m2 respectively. Although age-matched; the females had higher BMI values compared to males (23.8 vs. 24.5 Kg/m2). The overall crude prevalence of overweight (25.0-29.9 Kg/m2) and obesity (>30 Kg/m2) were 20.3% and 12.5% respectively. The rates of overweight (17.9 vs. 22.1 Kg/m2) and obesity (9.7 vs. 14.5 Kg/m2) were both higher in women than men. Obesity increased across age gradient from young to old adults; peaking in the 60-69-year age group. The first to fourth BMI quartiles were = 20.4 Kg/m2, 20.5-24.1 Kg/m2, 24.2-25.2 Kg/m2, = 25.3 Kg/ m2 respectively in the study population. At all ages; more females (32.4%) than males (24.7%) were placed within fourth BMI quartile. The 95th percentile BMI in the study population was 33.4 Kg/m2.

CONCLUSION

Overweight and obesity are common in Nigerians, particular among females and elderly. The prevalence estimates of overweight and obesity in Nigerians is comparable with prevalence among Blacks in other populations.

The effect of histamine iontophoresis on the heart rate and blood pressure of female subjects

The main purpose of this study was to determine the effect of histamine iontophoresis on the Blood Pressure (BP), and heart rate (HR) of female subjects. Twenty apparently healthy female undergraduates of Obafemi Awolowo University, Ile-Ife (average age 24.2 +/- 2.9) participated in the study. An automated electronic sphygmo-manometer that monitors both BP and HR was used to measure the Systolic Blood Pressure(SBP) and diastolic Blood Pressure (DBP) over the left brachial artery. The histamine gel used in this study contained 1 percent histamine dihydro-chloride. The gel was applied to the right biceps brachii and active was applied below the cubital fossa. The current intensity Interrupted Direct Current (IDC) was gradually increased and subjects were instructed to indicate immediately they experienced tingling sensation under the electrode. The same procedure was carried out the second time on the subjects with the same intensity of IDC current but without histamine for each subject. The treatments were administered on different days but within a two-week interval. The cardiovascular response was monitored five minutes before the administration, twenty minutes during the administration and five minutes after the termination of each treatment. Blood Pressure and heart rate did not change significantly from the baseline during the histamine iontophoresis and direct currents treatments (P > 0.05). The findings suggest that the subjects' BP and HR were not affected by histamine iontophoresis during the twenty minutes treatment. It was concluded that local administration of 1 percent histamine dihydrochloride into the subcutaneous tissue of females' right upper arm with the aid of direct current did not appreciably affect the blood pressure and heart rate after 20 minutes of treatment.