Optimal Interruption of P. vivax Malaria Transmission Using Mass Drug Administration

Effectiveness, Safety, and Acceptability of Primaquine Mass Drug Administration in Low-Endemicity Areas in Southern Thailand: Proof-of-Concept Study

BACKGROUND

A challenge in achieving the malaria-elimination target in the Greater Mekong Subregion, including Thailand, is the predominance of Plasmodium vivax malaria, which has shown extreme resilience to control measures.

OBJECTIVE

This proof-of-concept study aimed to provide evidence for implementing primaquine mass drug administration (pMDA) as a strategy for P. vivax elimination in low-endemicity settings.

METHODS

The study employed a mixed-methods trial to thoroughly evaluate the effectiveness, safety, acceptability, and community engagement of pMDA. The quantitative part was designed as a 2-period cluster-crossover randomized controlled trial. The intervention was pMDA augmented to the national prevention and control standards with directly observed treatment (DOT) by village health volunteers. The qualitative part employed in-depth interviews and brainstorming discussions. The study involved 7 clusters in 2 districts of 2 southern provinces in Thailand with persistently low P. vivax transmission. In the quantitative part, 5 cross-sectional blood surveys were conducted in both the pMDA and control groups before and 3 months after pMDA. The effectiveness of pMDA was determined by comparing the proportions of P. vivax infections per 1000 population between the 2 groups, with a multilevel zero-inflated negative binomial model adjusted for cluster and time as covariates and the interaction. The safety data comprised adverse events after drug administration. Thematic content analysis was used to assess the acceptability and engagement of stakeholders.

RESULTS

In the pre-pMDA period, the proportions of P. vivax infections in the pMDA (n=1536) and control (n=1577) groups were 13.0 (95% CI 8.2-20.4) and 12.0 (95% CI 7.5-19.1), respectively. At month 3 post-pMDA, these proportions in the pMDA (n=1430) and control (n=1420) groups were 8.4 (95% CI 4.6-15.1) and 5.6 (95% CI 2.6-11.5), respectively. No statistically significant differences were found between the groups. The number of malaria cases reduced in all clusters in both groups, and thus, the impact of pMDA was inconclusive. There were no major safety concerns. Acceptance among the study participants and public health care providers at local and national levels was high, and they believed that pMDA had boosted awareness in the community.

CONCLUSIONS

pMDA was associated with high adherence, safety, and tolerability, but it may not significantly impact P. vivax transmission. As this was a proof-of-concept study, we decided not to scale up the intervention with larger clusters and samples. An alternative approach involving a targeted primaquine treatment strategy with primaquine and DOT is currently being implemented. We experienced success regarding effective health care workforces at point-of-care centers, effective collaborations in the community, and commitment from authorities at local and national levels. Our efforts boosted the acceptability of the malaria-elimination initiative. Community engagement is recommended to achieve elimination targets.

TRIAL REGISTRATION

Thai Clinical Trials Registry TCTR20190806004; https://www.thaiclinicaltrials.org/show/TCTR20190806004.

Mathematical models of Plasmodium vivax transmission: A scoping review

Plasmodium vivax is one of the most geographically widespread malaria parasites in the world, primarily found across South-East Asia, Latin America, and parts of Africa. One of the significant characteristics of the P. vivax parasite is its ability to remain dormant in the human liver as hypnozoites and subsequently reactivate after the initial infection (i.e. relapse infections). Mathematical modelling approaches have been widely applied to understand P. vivax dynamics and predict the impact of intervention outcomes. Models that capture P. vivax dynamics differ from those that capture P. falciparum dynamics, as they must account for relapses caused by the activation of hypnozoites. In this article, we provide a scoping review of mathematical models that capture P. vivax transmission dynamics published between January 1988 and May 2023. The primary objective of this work is to provide a comprehensive summary of the mathematical models and techniques used to model P. vivax dynamics. In doing so, we aim to assist researchers working on mathematical epidemiology, disease transmission, and other aspects of P. vivax malaria by highlighting best practices in currently published models and highlighting where further model development is required. We categorise P. vivax models according to whether a deterministic or agent-based approach was used. We provide an overview of the different strategies used to incorporate the parasite's biology, use of multiple scales (within-host and population-level), superinfection, immunity, and treatment interventions. In most of the published literature, the rationale for different modelling approaches was driven by the research question at hand. Some models focus on the parasites' complicated biology, while others incorporate simplified assumptions to avoid model complexity. Overall, the existing literature on mathematical models for P. vivax encompasses various aspects of the parasite's dynamics. We recommend that future research should focus on refining how key aspects of P. vivax dynamics are modelled, including spatial heterogeneity in exposure risk and heterogeneity in susceptibility to infection, the accumulation of hypnozoite variation, the interaction between P. falciparum and P. vivax, acquisition of immunity, and recovery under superinfection.

Quantifying the impact of interventions against Plasmodium vivax: A model for country-specific use

In order to evaluate the impact of various intervention strategies on Plasmodium vivax dynamics in low endemicity settings without significant seasonal pattern, we introduce a simple mathematical model that can be easily adapted to reported case numbers similar to that collected by surveillance systems in various countries. The model includes case management, vector control, mass drug administration and reactive case detection interventions and is implemented in both deterministic and stochastic frameworks. It is available as an R package to enable users to calibrate and simulate it with their own data. Although we only illustrate its use on fictitious data, by simulating and comparing the impact of various intervention combinations on malaria risk and burden, this model could be a useful tool for strategic planning, implementation and resource mobilization.

Superinfection and the hypnozoite reservoir for Plasmodium vivax: a general framework

A characteristic of malaria in all its forms is the potential for superinfection (that is, multiple concurrent blood-stage infections). An additional characteristic of Plasmodium vivax malaria is a reservoir of latent parasites (hypnozoites) within the host liver, which activate to cause (blood-stage) relapses. Here, we present a model of hypnozoite accrual and superinfection for P. vivax. To couple host and vector dynamics for a homogeneously-mixing population, we construct a density-dependent Markov population process with countably many types, for which disease extinction is shown to occur almost surely. We also establish a functional law of large numbers, taking the form of an infinite-dimensional system of ordinary differential equations that can also be recovered by coupling expected host and vector dynamics (i.e. a hybrid approximation) or through a standard compartment modelling approach. Recognising that the subset of these equations that model the infection status of the human hosts has precisely the same form as the Kolmogorov forward equations for a Markovian network of infinite server queues with an inhomogeneous batch arrival process, we use physical insight into the evolution of the latter process to write down a time-dependent multivariate generating function for the solution. We use this characterisation to collapse the infinite-compartment model into a single integrodifferential equation (IDE) governing the intensity of mosquito-to-human transmission. Through a steady state analysis, we recover a threshold phenomenon for this IDE in terms of a parameter [Formula: see text] expressible in terms of the primitives of the model, with the disease-free equilibrium shown to be uniformly asymptotically stable if [Formula: see text] and an endemic equilibrium solution emerging if [Formula: see text]. Our work provides a theoretical basis to explore the epidemiology of P. vivax, and introduces a strategy for constructing tractable population-level models of malarial superinfection that can be generalised to allow for greater biological realism in a number of directions.