Space and time variability of meteorological drought in Syria

Spatial-temporal dynamic impact of changes in rainfall erosivity and vegetation coverage on soil erosion in the Eastern Mediterranean

In Syria, soil erosion (SoEr) by water is one of the major challenges for sustainability. Thus, the main goals of this research were to evaluate the spatial changes of SoEr between 2000 and 2018 in the whole coastal basin (CB) of Syria and to provide a soil water erosion risk map for the study area. For this purpose, monthly rainfall data, the SoilGrids dataset, satellite image derived NDVI layers, and Digital Elevation Model (DEM) were collected. Through the integration of these layers into the Revised Universal Soil Loss Equation (RUSLE), under a Geographic Information System (GIS), soil loss was assessed. Also, the contribution of land cover changes and R factor on SoEr were evaluated. The outcomes of this assessment illustrated that the R factor ranged from 800 to 2600 MJ mm ha-1 h-1 yr-1, while the soil erodibility factor (K factor) ranged from 0.048 to 0.035 ton ha MJ-1 mm-1. The C factor (vegetation coverage) values ranged between 0.07 and 1 with a spatial average value of 0.44 for the 2000-2009 period and 0.39 for the 2010-2018 interval. The output of RUSLE revealed that average annual SoEr was of 21.35 ton ha-1 y-1 (± 38) for 2000-2009 and 22.47 ton ha-1 y-1(± 41.8) for 2010-2018. Interestingly, the increased SoEr caused by the R factor was dominant (34.65%), followed by changes in both C factor and R factor (13.34%). However, decrease of SoEr rates is due to the increase of the C factor accounting for 36.82% of the CB. The outcome of this research can provide constructive spatial insights for rehabilitation plans for the post-war phase of Syria.

Meteorological Drought Variability and Its Impact on Wheat Yields across South Africa

Drought is one of the natural hazards that have negatively affected the agricultural sector worldwide. The aims of this study were to track drought characteristics (duration (DD), severity (DS), and frequency (DF)) in South Africa between 2002 and 2021 and to evaluate its impact on wheat production. Climate data were collected from the South African Weather Service (SAWS) along with wheat yield data from the Department of Agriculture, Forestry and Fisheries (2002-2021). The standard precipitation index (SPI) was calculated on 3-, 6-, 9-, and 12-month time scales, and the trend was then tracked using the Mann-Kendall (MK) test. To signify the climatic effects on crop yield, the standardized yield residual series (SYRS) was computed along with the crop-drought resilience factor (CR) on a provincial scale (2002-2021). The output of the SPI analysis for 32 stations covering all of South Africa indicates a drought tendency across the country. On a regional scale, western coastal provinces (WES-C and NR-C) have been more vulnerable to meteorological droughts over the past 20 years. Positive correlation results between SYRS and wheat yield indicate that the WES-C province was highly influenced by drought during all stages of wheat growth (Apr-Nov). Historical drought spells in 2003, 2009, and 2010 with low CR = 0.64 caused the province to be highly impacted by the negative impacts of droughts on yield loss. Overall, drought events have historically impacted the western part of the country and dominated in the coastal area. Thus, mitigation plans should be commenced, and priority should be given to this region. These findings can assist policymakers in budgeting for irrigation demand in rainfed agricultural regions.

Impact of Agricultural Drought on Sunflower Production across Hungary

In the last few decades, agricultural drought (Ag.D) has seriously affected crop production and food security worldwide. In Hungary, little research has been carried out to assess the impacts of climate change, particularly regarding droughts and crop production, and especially on regional scales. Thus, the main aim of this study was to evaluate the impact of agricultural drought on sunflower production across Hungary. Drought data for the Standardized Precipitation Index (SPI) and the Standardized Precipitation Evapotranspiration Index (SPEI) were collected from the CARBATCLIM database (1961–2010), whereas sunflower production was collected from the Hungarian national statistical center (KSH) on regional and national scales. To address the impact of Ag.D on sunflower production, the sequence of standardized yield residuals (SSYR) and yield losses YlossAD was applied. Additionally, sunflower resilience to Ag.D (SRAg.D) was assessed on a regional scale. The results showed that Ag.D is more severe in the western regions of Hungary, with a significantly positive trend. Interestingly, drought events were more frequent between 1990 and 2010. Moreover, the lowest SSYR values were reported as −3.20 in the Hajdu-Bihar region (2010). In this sense, during the sunflower growing cycle, the relationship between SSYR and Ag.D revealed that the highest correlations were recorded in the central and western regions of Hungary. However, 75% of the regions showed that the plantation of sunflower is not resilient to drought where SRAg.Dx < 1. To cope with climate change in Hungary, an urgent mitigation plan should be implemented.