Predictors of Clavien 4 Complications and Mortality After Necrosectomy: Analysis of the NSQIP Database

Decreasing use of pancreatic necrosectomy and NSQIP predictors of complications and mortality

BACKGROUND

Surgical pancreatic necrosectomy (SPN) is an option for the management of infected pancreatic necrosis. The literature indicates that an escalating, combined endoscopic, interventional radiology and minimally invasive surgery "step-up" approach, such as video-assisted retroperitoneal debridement, may reduce the number of required SPNs and ICU complications, such as multiple organ failure. We hypothesized that complications for surgically treated severe necrotizing pancreatitis patients decreased during the period of adoption of the "step-up" approach.

METHODS

The American college of surgeons national surgery quality improvement program database (ACS-NSQIP) was used to find SPN cases from 2007 to 2019 in ACS-NSQIP submitting hospitals. Mortality and Clavien-Dindo class 4 (CD4) ICU complications were collected. Predictors of outcomes were identified by univariate and multivariate analyses.

RESULTS

There were 2457 SPN cases. SPN cases decreased from 0.09% in 2007 to 0.01% in 2019 of NSQIP operative cases (p < 0.001). Overall mortality was 8.5% and did not decrease with time. CD4 complications decreased from 40 to 27% (p < 0.001). There was a 65% reduction in SPN cases requiring a return to the operating room. Multivariate predictors of complications were emergency general surgery (EGS, p < 0.001), serum albumin (p < 0.0001) and modified frailty index (mFI) (p < 0.0001). Multivariate predictors of mortality were EGS (p < 0.0001), serum albumin (p < 0.0001), and mFI (p < 0.04). The mFI decreased after 2010 (p < 0.001).

CONCLUSION

SPNs decreased after 2010, with decreasing CD4 complications, decreasing reoperation rates and stable mortality rates, likely indicating broad adoption of a "step-up" approach. Larger, prospective studies to compare indications and outcomes for "step up" versus open SPN are warranted.

Early infection is an independent risk factor for increased mortality in patients with culture-confirmed infected pancreatic necrosis

BACKGROUND

Mortality in infected pancreatic necrosis (IPN) is dynamic over the course of the disease, with type and timing of interventions as well as persistent organ failure being key determinants. The timing of infection onset and how it pertains to mortality is not well defined.

OBJECTIVES

To determine the association between mortality and the development of early IPN.

METHODS

International multicenter retrospective cohort study of patients with IPN, confirmed by a positive microbial culture from (peri) pancreatic collections. The association between timing of infection onset, timing of interventions and mortality were assessed using Cox regression analyses.

RESULTS

A total of 743 patients from 19 centers across 3 continents with culture-confirmed IPN from 2000 to 2016 were evaluated, mortality rate was 20.9% (155/734). Early infection was associated with a higher mortality, when early infection occurred within the first 4 weeks from presentation with acute pancreatitis. After adjusting for comorbidity, advanced age, organ failure, enteral nutrition and parenteral nutrition, early infection (≤4 weeks) and early open surgery (≤4 weeks) were associated with increased mortality [HR: 2.45 (95% CI: 1.63-3.67), p < 0.001 and HR: 4.88 (95% CI: 1.70-13.98), p = 0.003, respectively]. There was no association between late open surgery, early or late minimally invasive surgery, early or late percutaneous drainage with mortality (p > 0.05).

CONCLUSION

Early infection was associated with increased mortality, independent of interventions. Early surgery remains a strong predictor of excess mortality.

Modified frailty index predicts complications and death after non-bariatric gastrectomies

Background

The modified frailty index (mFI) has been shown to predict mortality and morbidity after major operations. The aim of the present study was to assess the mFI as a preoperative predictor of short-term postoperative complications and 30-day mortality in patients undergoing gastrectomy for non-bariatric diseases.

Methods

The American College of Surgeons National Surgical Quality Improvement Program (ACS NSQIP) database was queried for patients who underwent total or partial gastrectomy from 2005 to 2011. A mFI was calculated based on 11 variables as previously described. The population divided into the following four categories based on the mFI score: the non-frail (mFI 0), the low frail (mFI 1), the intermediate frail (mFI 2) and frail (mFI ≥3). Thirty-day mortality and postoperative complications were evaluated.

Results

Overall, 5,711 patients underwent a gastrectomy for non-bariatric diseases. Higher mFI score was associated with higher rates of mortality (from 1.2% in the non-frail group to 10.7% in frail group, P<0.001), overall morbidity (26.7% vs. 51.1%, P<0.001), postoperative Clavien IV complication (6% vs. 24.6%, P<0.001), serious complications (19.3% vs. 42.6%, P<0.001), sepsis-related complications (8.4% vs. 16.4%, P<0.001), cardiopulmonary complications (5% vs. 20.7%, P<0.001) and failure to rescue (5.7% vs. 21.8%, P<0.001).

Conclusions

Higher mFI score in patients undergoing non-bariatric gastrectomy, is associated with a stepwise greater risk of postoperative morbidity and mortality. MFI Score can be easily calculated preoperatively, from the patient's history, and it can be used as an exceptionally useful criterion for treatment planning.

FRAIL scale as a predictor of complications and mortality in older patients undergoing reconstructive surgery for non-melanoma skin cancer

The aim of the present study was to determine the association between preoperative frailty and the onset of surgical complications in patients diagnosed with massive non-melanoma skin cancer subjected to plastic and reconstructive surgery. A retrospective analysis was performed on a cohort of 587 patients with non-melanoma skin cancer, selected on the basis of specific inclusion criteria, who were subjected to plastic and reconstructive surgery between 2005 and 2014. Frailty was scored using the FRAIL index, whereas postoperative complications were classified according to Clavien-Dindo criteria. By binary logistic regression, the odds and probabilities of complications were calculated as a function of increasing values of the FRAIL index. Two different logistic models were created, comparing absent/mild (Clavien grades 1st and 2nd) vs. moderate/severe complications or mortality (Clavien grades 3rd-5th; model A), or absent/mild/moderate complications (Clavien grades 1st-3rd) vs. severe complications or mortality (Clavien grades 4th and 5th; model B). The FRAIL index was an accurate predictor of surgical complications or mortality, with significant odds ratios and goodness of fit. In model A, FRAIL scores 4 and 5 were the most critical predictors of moderate/severe complications or mortality (37 and 94% probability, 0.6 and 17.3 odds, respectively), compared to score 3 (2% probability, 0.02 odds) or lower. In model B, FRAIL score 5 was the most critical predictor of severe complications or mortality, as it was associated with a 74.6% probability and 2.93 odds for these events. In conclusion, increasing FRAIL scores were associated with worsening surgical outcomes for patients with non-melanoma skin cancer undergoing plastic/reconstructive surgery. A low rate of surgical complications was observed in pre-frail and frail patients up to FRAIL score 3.

Frailty index: Intensive care unit complications in head and neck oncologic regional and free flap reconstruction

BACKGROUND

Head and neck extirpations requiring reconstruction are challenging surgeries with high postoperative complication risk.

METHODS

Regional and free flap reconstructions of head and neck defects were collected from the 2006-2013 American College of Surgeons National Surgical Quality Improvement Program (ACS-NSQIP) database. The modified frailty index was made of 15 variables, with increasing index scores indicative of frailer patients. Intensive care unit (ICU)-level complications were defined by Clavien-Dindo classification IV and analyzed with multivariable logistic regression.

RESULTS

There were 266 flap reconstructions (126 regional and 140 free) with 86 (7.2%) Clavien-Dindo classification IV complications. As modified frailty index increased, a moderate correlation was demonstrated for Clavien-Dindo classification IV complications (R² = 0.30). Increasing modified frailty index score was correlated on linear regression with free versus regional flaps: Clavien-Dindo classification IV (R² = 0.09; 0.60), morbidity (R² = 0.04; 0.59), and mortality (R² = 0.07; 0.46), respectively. On multivariable analysis, the modified frailty index was associated with Clavien-Dindo classification IV complications for all flaps (odds ratio [OR] 4.38; 95% confidence interval [CI] 1.33-14.48) and free flaps (OR 6.60; 95%CI 1.02-42.52), but not regional flaps (OR 9.05; 95%CI 0.60-137.10).

CONCLUSION

The modified frailty index score is predictive of critical care support in head and neck resections necessitating reconstruction, specifically for free flaps.