Prognostic Implication of Negative Lymph Node Count in ypN+ Rectal Cancer after Neoadjuvant Chemoradiotherapy and Construction of a Prediction Nomogram

Examined lymph node numbers influence prognosis in rectal cancer treated with neoadjuvant therapy

Background

The number of lymph nodes examined (LNe) is often insufficient in patients with rectal cancer (RC) treated with neoadjuvant therapy; however, its prognostic value remains controversial. Thus, we retrospectively explored whether LNe had an influence on staging and prognosis and investigated whether there was a cut-off value for better prognosis in patients with RC treated with neoadjuvant therapy.

Methods

Data were collected from seven prospective hospital databases in China from July 2002 to May 2018. Binary logistic regression models were used to predict lymph node metastasis. The cut-off value for LNe was determined using X-tile 3.6.1. Survival outcomes and risk factors were analyzed using the log-rank test and Cox regression model.

Results

A total of 482 patients were included, of whom 459 had complete overall survival (OS) information. Using the percentile method, the total number of lymph nodes examined (TLNe) was 14-16 (40th-60th percentile), and the proportion of patients with lymph node metastasis reached a maximum of 48.1%. Cox multivariate analysis showed that the odds ratio (OR) remained the highest when TLNe was 14-16 (OR = 3.379, P = 0.003). The 3-year and 5-year OS were 85.4% and 77.8%, respectively. Negative lymph nodes examined (NLNe) of ≤6 was an independent risk factor for 3-year and 5-year OS (3-year OS 71.1% vs. 85.9%, P = 0.004; 5-year OS 66.3% vs. 74.3%, P = 0.035). Subgroup analysis for patients with ypN + showed that higher 3-year and 5-year OS were achieved when the TLNe was >10, 78.8% vs. 54.0% (P = 0.005), and 60.8% vs. 36.0% (P = 0.012), respectively. Patients with ypN0M0 had a higher 5-year OS when the TLNe was >19 (P = 0.055).

Conclusion

The TLNe and NLNe influenced the staging accuracy and demonstrated prognostic value in patients with RC treated with neoadjuvant therapy.

Prognostic value of log odds of positive lymph nodes, lymph node ratio, and N stage in patients with colorectal signet ring cell carcinoma: A retrospective cohort study

Aim

Little attention has been paid in the prognosis of colorectal signet ring cell carcinoma (SRCC). This study aims to explore the predictive capacity of log odds of positive lymph nodes (LODDS), lymph node ratio (LNR), and pN stage in the prognosis of patients with colorectal SRCC.

Methods

A retrospective cohort study was designed, and data were extracted from the Surveillance, Epidemiology and End Results (SEER) database. Data on demographic characteristics, clinicopathological features, and treatment were extracted. Outcomes were overall survival (OS) and cancer-specific survival (CSS). Association of LODDS, LNR, and pN stage with OS and CSS were explored using Cox proportional hazard model and Cox competing risk model, respectively, with results showing as hazard ratio and 95% confidence interval (CI). Predictive performance of LODDS, LNR, and pN stage in OS and CSS was assessed by calculating C-index.

Results

A total of 2,198 patients were included in this study. LODDS, LNR, and pN stage were associated with the OS and CSS of colorectal SRCC patients (all P < 0.05). LODDS showed a good performance in the OS (C-index: 0.704, 95% CI: 0.690-0.718), which was superior to LNR (C-index: 0.657, 95% CI: 0.643-0.671) and pN stage (C-index: 0.643, 95% CI: 0.629-0.657). The C-index of LODDS, LNR, and pN stage for CSS was 0.733 (95% CI: 0.719-0.747), 0.713 (95% CI: 0.697-0.729), and 0.667 (95% CI: 0.651-0.683), respectively.

Conclusions

LODDS displayed a better predictive capacity in the OS and CSS than LNR and pN stage, indicating that LODDS may be effective to predict the prognosis of colorectal SRCC in the clinic.

Predictive Value of the Neutrophil-Lymphocyte Ratio for Tumor Regression Grade and Prognosis of Local Advanced Rectal Cancer Patients Undergoing Neoadjuvant Chemoradiotherapy

PURPOSE

Numerous indicators can be used to predict tumor patients' prognosis and tumor regression grade (TRG). The role of the neutrophil-lymphocyte ratio (NLR) among individuals with locally advanced rectal cancer (LARC) following neoadjuvant chemoradiotherapy (nCRT) hasn't been studied, nevertheless. This study aims to explore the predictive value of the NLR before nCRT (pre-NLR) in TRG and prognosis of LARC patients undergoing nCRT..

METHODS

In this retrospective investigation, 326 LARC patients receiving nCRT in total were included. The link between the pre-NLR and TRG was examined using a logistic regression analysis. A Cox-based nomogram was created in the meanwhile to forecast overall survival (OS). With the use of calibration plots and receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curves, we evaluated the nomogram's predictive capabilities.

RESULTS

The median pre-NLR across 326 patients was 2.2 (interquartile range, IQR: 1.7-2.7). In the logistic regression analysis, only the pre-NLR for TRG in LARC patients receiving nCRT was statistically significant (odds ratio, OR = 0.62, 95% CI: 0.47-0.80, P < 0.001). Pre-NLR, nCRT with surgery interval, ypTNM stage, TRG, vascular invasion, adjuvant chemotherapy, and carbohydrate antigen 19-9 before nCRT were revealed to be OS predictors in the Cox multivariate analysis. According to calibration plots and ROC curves, the predictive nomogram demonstrated high statistical performance on internal validation.

CONCLUSION

This study demonstrated that a lower pre-NLR was probably associated with a greater rate of TRG in LARC patients undergoing nCRT. Furthermore, the pre-NLR was credibly correlated with OS in LARC patients undergoing nCRT. Meanwhile, we constructed a nomogram for predicting the prognosis in LARC patients undergoing nCRT.

Predictive value of indirect bilirubin before neoadjuvant chemoradiotherapy in evaluating prognosis of local advanced rectal cancer patients

BACKGROUND

Many biomarkers have predictive value for overall survival (OS) and disease-free survival (DFS) in tumor patients. However, the role of indirect bilirubin (IBIL) in local advanced rectal cancer (LARC) patients treated with neoadjuvant chemoradiotherapy (nCRT) has not been studied.

AIM

To explore the predictive value of IBIL before nCRT (pre-IBIL) for the OS and DFS of LARC patients treated with nCRT.

METHODS

A total of 324 LARC patients undergoing nCRT with total mesorectal excision (TME) were enrolled. Preoperative clinical features and postoperative pathological characteristics were collected. Cox regression analysis was performed, and a Cox-based nomogram was developed to predict OS and DFS. We also assessed the predictive performance of the nomogram with calibration plots and receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curves.

RESULTS

Among 324 patients, the median pre-IBIL was 6.2 μmol/L (interquartile range: 4.6 μmol/L-8.4 μmol/L). In the Cox multivariate regression analysis, we found that pre-IBIL, smoking history, tumor regression grade (TRG), vascular invasion, and carbohydrate antigen 19-9 before nCRT (pre-CA19-9) were predictors of OS. Additionally, pre-IBIL, body mass index (BMI), nCRT with surgery interval, TRG, and vascular invasion were predictors of DFS. Predictive nomograms were developed to predict 5-year OS and 5-year DFS with area under the ROC curve values of 0.7518 and 0.7355, respectively. Good statistical performance on internal validation was shown by calibration plots and ROC curves.

CONCLUSION

This study demonstrated that pre-IBIL was an independent prognostic factor for OS and DFS in LARC patients treated with nCRT followed by TME. Nomograms incorporating pre-IBIL, BMI, smoking history, nCRT with surgery interval, TRG, vascular invasion, and pre-CA19-9 could be helpful to predict OS and DFS.

Risk factors for long-term survival in patients with ypN+ M0 rectal cancer after radical anterior resection

Background

Regional lymph node metastases are the main adverse prognostic factor in patients with rectal cancer without distant metastases. There are discrepancies, however, regarding additional risk factors in the group of ypN + M0 patients. The purpose of the study was to assess clinical and pathological factors affecting long-term oncological outcomes in the group of ypN + M0 patients after radical rectal anterior resection.

Methods

112 patients with ypN + M0 rectal cancer after neoadjuvant therapy and radical anterior resection were subject to a retrospective analysis. The effect of potential factors on survival was assessed with the use of Kaplan–Meier curves together with a log-rank test and multiple factor Cox proportional hazards model.

Results

In the multiple factor Cox analysis, adverse factors affecting disease-free survival (DFS) were: the use of angiotensin-converting enzyme inhibitors (ACEIs) (hazard ratio HR: 3.11, 95% CI 1.01–9.56, p = 0.047), presence of perineural invasion (HR: 7.27, 95% CI 2.74–19.3, p < 0.001) and occurrence of postoperative complications (HR: 6.79, 95% CI 2.09–22.11, p = 0.001), while a positive factor was the negative lymph node (NLN) count > 7 (HR: 0.33, 95% CI 0.12–0.88, p = 0.026). In the disease-specific survival (DSS) analysis, an adverse factor was the use of ACEIs (HR: 4.275, 95% CI 1.44–12.694, p = 0.009), while a positive effect was caused by NLN > 5 (HR: 0.22, 95% CI 0.082–0.586, p = 0.002).

Conclusions

The use of ACEIs may have a negative effect on long-term treatment outcomes in patients with ypN + M0 rectal cancer. In this group of patients, the NLN count seems to be an important prognostic factor, as well.

Assessment of Systemic Inflammation and Nutritional Indicators in Predicting Recurrence-Free Survival After Surgical Resection of Gastrointestinal Stromal Tumors

Background

Recent studies have shown that the systemic inflammation and nutritional indicators are prognostic for a variety of malignancies. However, only limited data have so far demonstrated their usefulness in gastrointestinal mesenchymal tumors (GIST).

Methods

We retrospectively analyzed the data of GIST patients who underwent radical surgery in Beijing hospital from October 2004 to July 2018. The area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (AUC) was used to compare several commonly used inflammatory and nutritional indicators. The indicators with largest AUC were further analysis. Optimal cut-off values of those indicators in predicting recurrence-free survival (RFS) were determined. Kaplan-Meier curve and the time-dependent receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curve were used to assess the prognostic values. We then used univariate and multivariate Cox regression analyses to identify prognostic factors that were associated with RFS.

Results

In total, 160 patients who underwent surgery for GIST were included in the study. The median survival time was 34.5 months, with 1-, 3-, and 5-year RFS rates of 96.1%, 84.7%, and 80.8%, respectively. The inflammatory and nutritional indicators with largest AUC were Systemic immunoinflammatory Index (SII) and Geriatric Nutrition Risk Index (GNRI), reached 0.650 and 0.713, respectively. The optimal cutoff of GNRI and SII were 98.3, and 820.0, respectively. Univariate analysis showed that GNRI, SII, KI67, surgery method, tumor location, tumor size, and mitotic index were all significant prognostic indicators of RFS. After multivariate Cox analysis, independent prognostic factors for RFS in GIST included tumor location, mitotic index, tumor size, and GNRI (HR=2.802,95% CI: 1.045 to 7.515, p = 0.041). Besides, SII also tended to be associated with RFS (HR = 2.970, 95% CI: 0.946 to 9.326, p = 0.062).

Conclusions

High GNRI is an independent prognostic factor for RFS in GIST, while SII can be considered as a prognostic factor. GNRI and SII can be used as tools to evaluate the prognosis of patients before surgery, helping doctors to better treat high-risk patients.

Lymph Node Regression to Neoadjuvant Chemoradiotherapy in Patients with Locally Advanced Rectal Cancer: Prognostic Implication and a Predictive Model

AIM

Currently, few studies have focused on the prognostic impact of lymph node regression to neoadjuvant chemoradiotherapy (NCRT) in rectal cancer. This study aimed to explore the prognostic impact of lymph node regression grade (LRG) in patients with locally advanced rectal cancer (LARC) following NCRT and radical surgery and develop a predictive nomogram for disease-free survival (DFS).

METHODS

LARC patients undergoing NCRT and radical surgery between 2013 and 2014 were enrolled and divided into LRG low (≤ 2), middle (3-9), and high (≥ 10) groups. Clinicopathological characteristics and survival outcomes were compared. Predictors for DFS were identified by Cox regression analysis, and a nomogram was constructed.

RESULTS

A total of 257 LARC patients were eligible, including LRG low (n = 149), middle (n = 59), and high (n = 49) groups. Higher LRG score was associated with higher TRG, more advanced ypT and ypN stages, and poorer OS and DFS (all P < 0.001). Cox regression analysis demonstrated that tumor differentiation (poor and anaplastic, HR = 2.048, P = 0.048), ypTNM stage (HR = 2.389, P = 0.015), and LRG-sum (HR = 1.020, P = 0.029) were independent prognostic determinants for DFS after NCRT. A nomogram for DFS was developed with a C-index of 0.68 (95%CI 0.64-0.72).

CONCLUSION

LRG is an important prognostic indicator for DFS in LARC patients after NCRT. A predictive nomogram based on LRG was developed to guide more tailored adjuvant treatment and surveillance.

Log odds of positive lymph nodes is an excellent prognostic factor for patients with rectal cancer after neoadjuvant chemoradiotherapy

Background

Neoadjuvant chemoradiotherapy (NCRT) results in fewer lymph nodes harvested and causes staging migration. Therefore, we compared the prognostic value of the logarithmic odds of positive lymph nodes (LODDS) with the lymph node ratio (LNR) and the American Joint Committee on Cancer (AJCC) ypN stage in patients with locally advanced rectal cancer (LARC) after NCRT.

Methods

A total of 445 patients with LARC who received NCRT and underwent radical surgery between January 2004 and December 2015 were recruited, and data from 4881 patients included in the Surveillance, Epidemiology and End Results (SEER) database between 2010 and 2013 were analyzed to verify our results. The time-dependent area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (TimeROC) was used to evaluate the discriminative ability of the different lymph node staging systems.

Results

ypN staging failed to satisfactorily stratify the patients treated with NCRT [the 3-year disease-free survival (DFS) rates were 65.7% and 55.4% for the ypN1 and ypN2 groups, respectively, P=0.252]. The LODDS classification was significantly associated with DFS, and the 3-year DFS rates for the LODDS0, LODDS1, and LODDS2 groups were 89.9%, 72.4%, and 53.9%, respectively (P<0.05 across all groups). Furthermore, the LODDS classification system was able to subclassify patients with ypN0 stage tumors regardless of whether ≥12 or <12 total lymph nodes (TLNs) were harvested. TimeROC analysis showed that the LODDS classification (AUC, median: 0.722, range: 0.692–0.754) had a higher accuracy for determining the prognosis than the ypN stage (AUC, median: 0.691, range: 0.684–0.712) or the LNR (AUC, median: 0.703, range: 0.685–0.730) classification, regardless of lymph node status. These results were verified using the SEER database.

Conclusions

The LODDS was a better prognostic factor for DFS than ypN staging or the LNR-based approach in patients with LARC after NCRT, particularly those with <12 TLNs harvested or ypN0 stage disease.

Impact factors of lymph node retrieval on survival in locally advanced rectal cancer with neoadjuvant therapy

BACKGROUND

Conventional clinical guidelines recommend that at least 12 lymph nodes should be removed during radical rectal cancer surgery to achieve accurate staging. The current application of neoadjuvant therapy has changed the number of lymph node dissection.

AIM

To investigate factors affecting the number of lymph nodes dissected after neoadjuvant chemoradiotherapy in locally advanced rectal cancer and to evaluate the relationship of the total number of retrieved lymph nodes (TLN) with disease-free survival (DFS) and overall survival (OS).

METHODS

A total of 231 patients with locally advanced rectal cancer from 2015 to 2017 were included in this study. According to the American Joint Committee on Cancer (AJCC)/Union for International Cancer Control (UICC) tumor-node-metastasis (TNM) classification system and the NCCN guidelines for rectal cancer, the patients were divided into two groups: group A (TLN ≥ 12, n = 177) and group B (TLN < 12, n = 54). Factors influencing lymph node retrieval were analyzed by univariate and binary logistic regression analysis. DFS and OS were evaluated by Kaplan-Meier curves and Cox regression models.

RESULTS

The median number of lymph nodes dissected was 18 (range, 12-45) in group A and 8 (range, 2-11) in group B. The lymph node ratio (number of positive lymph nodes/total number of lymph nodes) (P = 0.039) and the interval between neoadjuvant therapy and radical surgery (P = 0.002) were independent factors of the TLN. However,TLN was not associated with sex, age, ASA score, clinical T or N stage, pathological T stage, tumor response grade (Dworak), downstaging, pathological complete response, radiotherapy dose, preoperative concurrent chemotherapy regimen, tumor distance from anal verge, multivisceral resection, preoperative carcinoembryonic antigen level, perineural invasion, intravascular tumor embolus or degree of differentiation. The pathological T stage (P < 0.001) and TLN (P < 0.001) were independent factors of DFS, and pathological T stage (P = 0.011) and perineural invasion (P = 0.002) were independent factors of OS. In addition, the risk of distant recurrence was greater for TLN < 12 (P = 0.009).

CONCLUSION

A shorter interval to surgery after neoadjuvant chemoradiotherapy for rectal cancer under indications may cause increased number of lymph nodes harvested. Tumor shrinkage and more extensive lymph node retrieval may lead to a more favorable prognosis.

BMI May Be a Prognostic Factor for Local Advanced Rectal Cancer Patients Treated with Long-Term Neoadjuvant Chemoradiotherapy

OBJECTIVE

This study aims to develop feasible nomograms to predict the overall survival (OS) and cancer-specific survival (CSS) of the local advanced rectal cancer (LARC) patients who were treated with neoadjuvant chemoradiotherapy (nCRT) and operation.

METHODS

A total of 243 LARC patients undergoing nCRT followed by total mesorectal excision (TME) were enrolled. Preoperative clinical features and postoperative pathological characteristics were collected. A Cox regression analysis was performed, and Cox-based nomograms were developed to predict the OS and CSS. We assessed the predictive performance of the nomogram with concordance index and calibration plots.

RESULTS

A total of 243 patients were included with a median follow-up period of 46 months (range from 9 to 86 months). Cox regression analysis showed that low BMI (BMI < 18.5, HR= 21.739, P < 0.05), high level of preoperative CA19-9 (HR = 3.369, P = 0.036), high ypStage (HR = 19.768, P < 0.001), positive neural invasion (HR = 4.218, P = 0.026) and no adjuvant chemotherapy (HR = 5.495, P < 0.001) were independent predictors of poor OS. Age ≥70 (HR = 2.284, P <0.001), low BMI (BMI < 18.5, HR = 3.906, P < 0.05), positive preoperative CA19-9 (HR = 1.920, P = 0.012), high ypStage (HR = 5.147, P <0.001) and positive neural invasion (HR = 2.873, P = 0.022) were independent predictors of poor CSS. The predictive nomograms were developed to predict the OS and CSS with a C-index of 0.837 and 0.760. Good statistical performance on internal validation was shown by calibration plots.

CONCLUSION

In conclusion, this study demonstrated that BMI was an independent prognostic factor for OS and CSS in LARC patients treated with nCRT followed TME. A nomogram incorporating BMI, neural invasion, pre-CA19-9, ypStage, age, and adjuvant chemotherapy could be helpful to predict the OS and CSS.

Nomogram Predicting Overall Survival of Resected Locally Advanced Rectal Cancer Patients with Neoadjuvant Chemoradiotherapy

PURPOSE

The overall survival (OS) of resected locally advanced rectal cancer patients who underwent neoadjuvant chemoradiotherapy (nCRT) was significantly different, even among patients with the same tumor stage. The nomogram was designed to predict OS of rectal cancer with nCRT and divide the patients into different risk groups.

MATERIALS AND METHODS

Based on materials from 911 rectal cancer patients with nCRT, the multivariable Cox regression model was carried out to select the significant prognostic factors for overall survival. And then, the nomogram was formulated using these independent prognostic factors. The discrimination of the nomogram was assessed by concordance index (C-index), calibration curves and time-dependent area under curve (AUC). The patients respective risk scores were calculated through the nomogram. The best cut-off risk score was calculated to stratify the patients. The survival curves of the two different risk cohorts were performed, which assessed the predictive ability of the nomogram.

RESULTS

Age, cT stage, pretreatment CEA, pretreatment CA19-9, surgery, posttreatment CEA, posttreatment CA19-9, pT stage, pN stage and adjuvant chemotherapy were selected for the construction of the nomogram. And then the nomogram was constructed with independent prognostic factors. The C-index of the nomogram was 0.724, which showed the nomogram provided good discernment. The acceptable agreement between the predictions of nomogram and actual observations was illustrated by calibration plots for 3-, 5- and 10-year OS in the cohort. Time-dependent AUC with 6-fold cross-validation also showed consistent results of the nomogram. Risk group stratification confirmed that the nomogram had great capacity for distinguishing the prognosis.

CONCLUSION

The nomogram was developed and validated to predict overall survival of resected locally advanced rectal cancer patients with nCRT. The proposed nomogram might help clinicians to develop individualized treatment strategies. However, further studies are warranted to optimize the nomogram by finding out other unknown prognostic factors, and more external validation is still required.