Predicting Weight Loss and Comorbidity Improvement 7 Years Following Laparoscopic Sleeve Gastrectomy: Does Early Weight Loss Matter?

The predictive relationship between early and long-term weight loss outcomes after one anastomosis gastric bypass

BACKGROUND

Weight loss failure after bariatric surgery imposes great stress on patients and surgeons and great costs on healthcare systems. The literature review shows that weight loss failure is the most common cause of redo bariatric surgery. Therefore, identifying the predictors of weight loss failure in patients in the early stages can help bariatric surgeons. The present study aims to determine the association between primary weight loss and long-term weight loss outcomes.

METHODS

This retrospective cohort study was conducted on 329 patients undergoing OAGB who were followed for 60 months. For the prediction of short-term (24 months) and long-term (60 months) successful weight loss and weight regain, we used %TWL and BMI at any regular follow-ups.

RESULTS

In preoperative indices, age, sex, DLP, hypothyroidism, and HTN were not significant to predict successful short-term and long-term weight loss but %TWL at 12 months is a significant predictor of successful weight loss in short-term and long-term follow up. In the prediction of weight regain, preoperative indices (except BMI) were not significant but 12-month %TWL was a significant predictor.

CONCLUSIONS

This index can help surgeons find these patients early and provide helpful instructions to manage their issues more promptly to reach better weight loss outcomes.

Development and validation of an interpretable machine learning-based calculator for predicting 5-year weight trajectories after bariatric surgery: a multinational retrospective cohort SOPHIA study

BACKGROUND

Weight loss trajectories after bariatric surgery vary widely between individuals, and predicting weight loss before the operation remains challenging. We aimed to develop a model using machine learning to provide individual preoperative prediction of 5-year weight loss trajectories after surgery.

METHODS

In this multinational retrospective observational study we enrolled adult participants (aged ≥18 years) from ten prospective cohorts (including ABOS [NCT01129297], BAREVAL [NCT02310178], the Swedish Obese Subjects study, and a large cohort from the Dutch Obesity Clinic [Nederlandse Obesitas Kliniek]) and two randomised trials (SleevePass [NCT00793143] and SM-BOSS [NCT00356213]) in Europe, the Americas, and Asia, with a 5 year follow-up after Roux-en-Y gastric bypass, sleeve gastrectomy, or gastric band. Patients with a previous history of bariatric surgery or large delays between scheduled and actual visits were excluded. The training cohort comprised patients from two centres in France (ABOS and BAREVAL). The primary outcome was BMI at 5 years. A model was developed using least absolute shrinkage and selection operator to select variables and the classification and regression trees algorithm to build interpretable regression trees. The performances of the model were assessed through the median absolute deviation (MAD) and root mean squared error (RMSE) of BMI.

FINDINGS

10 231 patients from 12 centres in ten countries were included in the analysis, corresponding to 30 602 patient-years. Among participants in all 12 cohorts, 7701 (75·3%) were female, 2530 (24·7%) were male. Among 434 baseline attributes available in the training cohort, seven variables were selected: height, weight, intervention type, age, diabetes status, diabetes duration, and smoking status. At 5 years, across external testing cohorts the overall mean MAD BMI was 2·8 kg/m2 (95% CI 2·6-3·0) and mean RMSE BMI was 4·7 kg/m2 (4·4-5·0), and the mean difference between predicted and observed BMI was -0·3 kg/m2 (SD 4·7). This model is incorporated in an easy to use and interpretable web-based prediction tool to help inform clinical decision before surgery.

INTERPRETATION

We developed a machine learning-based model, which is internationally validated, for predicting individual 5-year weight loss trajectories after three common bariatric interventions.

FUNDING

SOPHIA Innovative Medicines Initiative 2 Joint Undertaking, supported by the EU's Horizon 2020 research and innovation programme, the European Federation of Pharmaceutical Industries and Associations, Type 1 Diabetes Exchange, and the Juvenile Diabetes Research Foundation and Obesity Action Coalition; Métropole Européenne de Lille; Agence Nationale de la Recherche; Institut national de recherche en sciences et technologies du numérique through the Artificial Intelligence chair Apprenf; Université de Lille Nord Europe's I-SITE EXPAND as part of the Bandits For Health project; Laboratoire d'excellence European Genomic Institute for Diabetes; Soutien aux Travaux Interdisciplinaires, Multi-établissements et Exploratoires programme by Conseil Régional Hauts-de-France (volet partenarial phase 2, project PERSO-SURG).

Prediction of 5-Year Weight Loss and Weight Regain According to Early Weight Loss after Sleeve Gastrectomy

BACKGROUND

Patients with morbid obesity exhibit sustained weight loss after sleeve gastrectomy (SG), but some individuals exhibit subsequent weight regain in the following years. Early weight loss was proven as a predictor of short- and mid-term weight loss and regain. However, the long-term effects of early weight loss have yet to be fully investigated. This study investigated the predictive effects of early weight loss on long-term weight loss and regain after SG.

METHODS

Data of patients who underwent SG from November 2011 to July 2016 and followed through July 2021 were collected retrospectively. Weight regain was defined by weight increase more than 25% of their lost weight at the first postoperative year. Linear regression analysis and Cox proportional hazards analysis were performed to evaluate the correlations among early weight loss, weight loss, and weight regain.

RESULTS

Data of 408 patients were included. The percentages of total weight loss (%TWL) at postoperative months 1, 3, 12, and 60 were 10.6%, 18.1%, 29.3%, and 26.6%, respectively. The %TWL at months 1 and 3 were significantly correlated with %TWL after 5 years (P < .01). The weight regain rate was 29.8% at 5 years. The %TWL at months 1 and 3 significantly influenced weight regain (hazard ratio: 0.87 and 0.89, P = .017 and .008).

CONCLUSION

Early weight loss may be used to predict weight loss and regain 5 years after SG. Patients with poor early weight loss are recommended to receive early interventions to achieve long-term weight loss and prevent weight regain.

Early Postoperative Weight Loss Predicts Weight Loss up to 5 Years After Roux-En-Y Gastric Bypass, Banded Roux-En-Y Gastric Bypass, and Sleeve Gastrectomy

Purpose

Previous studies showed that patients with lower weight loss after bariatric surgery could be identified based on early postoperative weight loss. However, these studies had only 12–36-month follow-up. This study aimed to explore whether patients in the lowest weight loss quartile at 3 months had lower weight loss trajectories up to 5 years after Roux-en-Y gastric bypass (RYGB), banded Roux-en-Y gastric bypass (BRYGB), and sleeve gastrectomy (SG) surgery.

Methods

Weight was assessed preoperatively, and 3, 6, 9, 12, 24, 36, 48, and 60 months postoperatively. Patients were grouped into four categories based on quartiles of percentage total weight loss (%TWL) at 3-month follow-up. Results were compared between the lowest %TWL quartile group and other quartile groups.

Results

Patients underwent either RYGB (n=13,106; 72%), SG (n=3585; 20%), or BRYGB (n=1391, 8%) surgery. Weight loss trajectories of patients in the lowest %TWL quartile group remained lower than that of other quartile groups throughout a 5-year follow-up, for all three types of surgery. Patients in the lowest %TWL quartile group had higher age at surgery, higher baseline BMI, and were more likely to be male (in the SG group), and to suffer from diabetes, hypertension, dyslipidemia, and osteoarthritis.

Conclusion

This study showed a positive association between weight loss at 3 and 12 to 60 months after bariatric surgery. Weight loss at 3 months after surgery could be used to identify patients whose anticipated weight loss trajectories are below average, to potentially improve their outcomes through early behavioral or medical interventions.

Graphical Abstract

Sex disparity in laparoscopic bariatric surgery outcomes: a matched-pair cohort analysis

Men have been historically considered to be higher-risk patients for bariatric surgery compared to women, the perception of which is suggested to be a barrier to bariatric surgery in men. The purpose of this study is to conduct a matched-pair analysis to evaluate sex disparities in laparoscopic bariatric surgery outcomes. Data on patients who underwent laparoscopic bariatric surgery from March 2013 to 2017 was collected prospectively. Then, 707 men and 707 women pair-matched for age, preoperative body mass index (BMI) and the procedure type (i.e., sleeve gastrectomy, Roux-en-Y, or one-anastomosis gastric bypass) were compared in terms of weight loss, remission of obesity-related comorbidities, and postoperative complications classified according to the Clavien–Dindo classification. There was no difference between the two sexes regarding the operation time, bleeding during surgery and length of postoperative hospital stay. We observed similar total weight loss, BMI loss, and percentage of excess BMI loss at 12, 24, and 36 months postoperatively between men and women, with no difference in remission of diabetes mellitus, hypertension and dyslipidemia at 12 months. The rate of in-hospital, 30-day and late complications according to Clavien–Dindo classification grades was similar between men and women. Our matched-pair cohort analysis demonstrated that bariatric surgery results in comparable short- and mid-term efficacy in men and women, and is associated with similar rate and severity of postoperative complications between sexes. These findings suggest bariatric surgeons not to consider sex for patient selection in bariatric surgery.

Early weight loss as a predictor of 3-year weight loss and weight regain in patients with good compliance after sleeve gastrectomy

BACKGROUND

Sleeve gastrectomy (SG) is the most common surgery for severe obesity. Patients lose weight post SG and regain some weight in the following years. Early weight loss predicts weight loss after SG. However, etiologies of weight loss and regain after SG remain unclear.

OBJECTIVES

To investigate the effects of early weight loss on medium-term weight regain post SG.

SETTING

Two university hospitals in Taiwan.

METHODS

Patients with records within 1 and at 3 years after SG were enrolled retrospectively. Preoperative clinical variables and percentage of total weight loss (%TWL) were analyzed. Weight regain was defined as a weight increase from 1 year postoperatively of >25% of the lost weight. Linear and multiple logistic regression were applied to examine the associations of early weight loss, weight loss, and weight regain.

RESULTS

A total of 363 patients were included. Body mass indexes before and 1, 3, 6, 12, and 36 months postoperatively were 40.7 ± 6.8 kg/m², 36.6 ± 6.2 kg/m², 33.5 ± 5.8 kg/m², 30.9 ± 5.5 kg/m², 28.4 ± 5.2, and 29.3 ± 5.4 kg/m², respectively. At 3 years after SG, 73 patients (20.1%) had weight regain. In multivariate linear analyses, initial age, waist circumference, type 2 diabetes, and %TWL at 1 or 3 months were associated with either 1-year or 3-year %TWL. Multiple logistic regression revealed %TWL at 3 months to be a predictor for 3-year weight regain after SG (odds ratio, .927; P = .02).

CONCLUSION

Early weight loss predicted weight loss and regain 3 years after SG. Early lifestyle and behavioral interventions are suggested in patients at high risk of poor weight loss and weight regain outcomes after SG.