Does CHA2DS2-VASc score predict mortality in chronic kidney disease?

Efficacy of CHA2DS2-VASc scores in predicting chronic kidney disease risk in patients treated in cardiac intensive care units

The CHA2DS2 -VASc score is a vital clinical tool for evaluating thromboembolic risk in patients with atrial fibrillation (AF). This study investigated the efficacy of the CHA2DS2 -VASc score in a cohort of 737 heterogeneous patients (mean age: 63 years) receiving care in cardiac intensive care units (CICUs), with a creatinine-based estimated glomerular filtration rate (eGFR) of ≥60 mL/min/1.73 m2 upon admission and discharge. Incident chronic kidney disease (CKD) was defined as the emergence of a new-onset eGFR<60 mL/min/1.73 m2, accompanied by a decline of >5 mL/min/1.73 m2 compared to that at discharge. The primary endpoint was the incidence of CKD, and the secondary endpoints included all-cause mortality, cardiovascular events, and progression to end-stage kidney disease. In this cohort, 210 (28 %) patients developed CKD. Multivariate analyses revealed that CHA2DS2 -VASc score was a significant independent predictor of incident CKD, regardless of the presence of AF. Integration of CHA2DS2 -VASc scores with eGFR enhanced the predictive accuracy of incident CKD, as evidenced by the improved C-index, net reclassification improvement, and integrated discrimination improvement values (all p < 0.05). Over the 12-month follow-up period, a composite endpoint was observed in 61 patients (8.3 %), with elevated CHA2DS2 -VASc scores being independently associated with this endpoint. In conclusion, CHA2DS2-VASc scores have emerged as robust predictors of both CKD incidence and adverse outcomes. Their inclusion substantially refined the 12-month risk stratification of patients with preserved renal function hospitalized in the CICUs.

CHA2DS2-VASc score as a predictor of clinical outcomes in hospitalized patients with and without chronic kidney disease

BACKGROUND

High CHA2DS2-VASc score (Congestive heart failure, Hypertension, Age > 75 years, Diabetes mellitus, prior Stroke or transient ischemic attack or thromboembolism, Vascular disease, Age 65-74 and Sex category) was associated with adverse clinical outcomes in different settings. The aim of the present study was to evaluate the association between CHA2DS2-VASc score and R2CHA2DS2-VASc score (which includes renal impairment) with in-hospital mortality and length of hospital stay in patients hospitalized in an internal medicine ward.

METHODS

We enrolled 983 consecutive patients admitted during 3 years in an internal medicine ward. R2CHA2DS2-VASc score was calculated by adding 2 points to CHA2DS2-VASc for the presence of chronic kidney disease (CKD), defined according to K-DOQI. The primary outcome was a composite of all-cause mortality and length of hospital stay > 10 days.

RESULTS

Patients with CKD stages 3-5 presented with increased CHA2DS2-VASc vs stages 1-2 (p < 0.001). The composite outcome occurred in 47.3% of inpatients. Multivariable linear logistic regression analyses adjusted for presence of infectious diseases and cancer, with the occurrence of composite outcome showed an adjusted OR of 1.349 (95% CI 1.248-1.462) and 1.254 (95% CI 1.179-1.336) for CHA2DS2-VASc and R2CHA2DS2-VASc scores, respectively. No differences were found in the association between CHA2DS2-VASc and R2CHA2DS2-VASc scores with the composite outcome (AUC 0.631 vs 0.630), and furthermore, adding the presence/absence of infectious diseases during hospitalization and positive cancer history to the models increased the AUC (0.667 and 0.663).

CONCLUSIONS

Incrementally higher CHA2DS2-VASc score is associated with increased length of hospital stay and mortality in patients hospitalized in an internal medicine ward, regardless of the presence of CKD.

Cardiovascular Events and Mortality in Patients on Hemodialysis: The Prognostic Value of the CHA2DS2-VASc Score

Background and Objectives: Cardiovascular events are the major cause of morbidity and mortality in patients on hemodialysis (HD). Identifying risk factors can help in the effort to reduce cardiovascular risk and improve life expectancy. The objective of this study was to evaluate the ability of the CHA2DS2-VASc score-the risk index of stroke in atrial fibrillation (AF)-to predict strokes, major cardiovascular events, and mortality in patients with end-stage kidney disease. Materials and Methods: The CHA2DS2-VASc and HAS-BLED scores (the bleeding risk from the use of anticoagulation in AF) were calculated in 237 HD patients, 99 women with a median age of 76 (15) years, at the time they commenced HD. The scores' ability to predict long term cardiovascular morbidity and mortality was estimated, both in those with and without AF. Among the exclusion criteria were the change of dialysis method or loss of follow-up, HD due to acute renal failure, and incompliance with medical instructions, thus the sample is not representative of a broader population. Results: The CHA2DS2-VASc score was higher in AF (n = 69) compared to non-AF (n = 168) patients, 5 (2.5) vs. 4 (2), p < 0.0001, respectively. An increased CHA2DS2-VASc score was correlated with cardiovascular events, namely, heart failure (p = 0.007, p = 0.024), stroke (p < 0.0001, p < 0.0001), and risk of all-cause mortality (p < 0.0001, p < 0.0001) in AF and non-AF groups, respectively. The C statistics indicated that the referred score showed modest discrimination in AF and non-AF patients on HD for heart failure, stroke, and all-cause mortality, however for cardiovascular mortality this was found only in the AF group. Conclusions: An increased CHA2DS2-VASc score at the time of HD initiation can predict strokes, heart failure, and all-cause mortality in HD patients independent of the presence of AF. The risk of cardiovascular mortality could only be predicted in patients with AF.

Optimising prediction of mortality, stroke, and major bleeding for patients with atrial fibrillation: validation of the GARFIELD-AF tool in UK primary care electronic records

BACKGROUND

The GARFIELD-AF tool is a novel risk tool that simultaneously assesses the risk of all-cause mortality, stroke or systemic embolism, and major bleeding in patients with atrial fibrillation (AF).

AIM

To validate the GARFIELD-AF tool using UK primary care electronic records.

DESIGN AND SETTING

A retrospective cohort study using the Clinical Practice Research Datalink (CPRD) linked with Hospital Episode Statistics data and Office for National Statistics mortality data.

METHOD

Discrimination was evaluated using the area under the curve (AUC) and calibration was evaluated using calibration-in-the-large regression and calibration plots.

RESULTS

A total of 486 818 patients aged ≥18 years with incident diagnosis of non-valvular AF between 2 January 1998 and 31 July 2020 were included; 50.6% (n = 246 425/486 818) received anticoagulation at diagnosis The GARFIELD- AF models outperformed the CHA2DS2VASc and HAS-BLED scores in discrimination ability of death, stroke, and major bleeding at all the time points. The AUC for events at 1 year for the 2017 models were: death 0.747 (95% confidence interval [CI] = 0.744 to 0.751) versus 0.635 (95% CI = 0.631 to 0.639) for CHA2DS2VASc; stroke 0.666 (95% CI = 0.663 to 0.669) versus 0.625 (95% CI = 0.622 to 0.628) for CHA2DS2VASc; and major bleeding 0.602 (95% CI = 0.598 to 0.606) versus 0.558 (95% CI = 0.554 to 0.562) for HAS- BLED. Calibration between predicted and Kaplan- Meier observed events was inadequate with the GARFIELD-AF models.

CONCLUSION

The GARFIELD-AF models were superior to the CHA2DS2VASc score for discriminating stroke and death and superior to the HAS-BLED score for discriminating major bleeding. The models consistently underpredicted the level of risk, suggesting that a recalibration is needed to optimise its use in the UK population.

Adverse Clinical Outcomes and Associated Predictors in Rivaroxaban-Treated Atrial Fibrillation Patients With Renal Impairment

Renal impairment confers worse prognosis in patients with atrial fibrillation (AF) but there is scarce evidence about the influence of direct-acting oral anticoagulants in routine clinical practice. Herein, we compared clinical outcomes between patients with AF with and without renal impairment on rivaroxaban and investigated predictors for clinical outcomes in patients with AF with renal impairment. This was a multicenter study including patients with AF on rivaroxaban for at least 6 months. During 2.5 years follow-up, ischemic strokes (IS)/transient ischemic attacks (TIA)/systemic embolisms (SE)/myocardial infarctions (MI), major bleeding, and major adverse cardiovascular events (MACE) were recorded. Creatinine clearance (CrCl) was estimated using the Cockroft-Gault equation, renal impairment was defined as a CrCl <60 ml/min, and 1,433 patients (34.8% with CrCl <60 ml/min) were included. Patients with CrCl <60 ml/min showed higher event rates for major bleeding (1.87%/year vs 0.62%/year; p = 0.003) and MACE (1.97%/year vs 0.62%/year; p = 0.002) but similar event rates for IS/TIA/SE/MI (0.66%/year vs 0.67%/year; p = 0.955). In patients with renal impairment, CHA2DS2-VASc was associated with higher risk of IS/TIA/SE/MI; HAS-BLED and any dependency level were associated with higher risk of major bleeding; and male gender and heart failure were associated with higher risk of MACE. Antiplatelets were independently associated with increased risk of IS/TIA/SE/MI and MACE. In conclusion, in patients with AF on rivaroxaban, the incidence of IS/TIA/SE/MI did not increase in those with renal impairment, suggesting that rivaroxaban may be an effective option in this subgroup. In patients with AF, male gender, heart failure, dependency, antiplatelets, CHA2DS2-VASc, and HAS-BLED were associated with increased risk of adverse outcomes.

Predictive value of CHA2DS2VASC score for contrast-induced nephropathy after primary percutaneous coronary intervention for patients presenting with acute ST-segment elevation myocardial infarction

BACKGROUND

ST-elevation myocardial infarction (STEMI) patients undergoing primary percutaneous coronary intervention (pPCI) are at increased risk for contrast-induced nephropathy (CIN) than elective PCI procedures. Routine calculation of Mehran's score is limited by its complexity and difficulty to memorize. This study evaluated CHA₂DS₂-VASc score predictive utility for CIN in STEMI patients before pPCI.

RESULTS

Consecutive 500 acute STEMI patients presenting to two Egyptian pPCI centers were recruited. Exclusion criteria included cardiogenic shock or known severe renal impairment (baseline serum creatinine ≥ 3 mg/dL) or current or previous indication of hemodialysis. CHA₂DS₂VAS_C score_, Mehran's score, baseline estimated glomerular filtration rate (eGFR), contrast media volume (CMV) and CMV/eGFR ratio were collected for all patients. Post-pPCI CIN (defined as 0.5 mg/dL absolute increase or 25% relative increase of serum creatinine from baseline) and predictive accuracy of CHA₂DS₂VAS_C and Mehran's scores were evaluated. CIN occurred in 35 (7%) of the study group. Values of CHA₂DS₂VAS_C score_, Mehran's score, baseline eGFR, CMV and CMV/eGFR ratio were significantly higher in those who developed CIN compared to those who did not. CHA₂DS₂VAS_C score_, Mehran's score and CMV/eGFR were found to be independent predictors for CIN (P < 0.001 for all). ROC curve analysis revealed that CHA₂DS₂VAS_C ≥ 4 had a superb predictive ability, comparable to Mehran's score, for post-pPCI CIN.

CONCLUSIONS

Being practical, easily memorizable and applicable before proceeding to pPCI, routine CHA₂DS₂VAS_C score calculation in STEMI patients can effectively predict CIN risk and guide preventive and/or therapeutic interventions.

One-Year Mortality after Hemodialysis Initiation: The Prognostic Role of the CHA2DS2-VASc Score

BACKGROUND

CKD is a significant cause of morbidity, cardiovascular and all-cause mortality. CHA2DS2-VASc is a score used in patients with atrial fibrillation to predict thromboembolic risk; it also appears to be useful to predict mortality risk. The aim of the study was to evaluate CHA2DS2-VASc scores as a tool for predicting one-year mortality after hemodialysis is started and for identifying factors associated with higher mortality.

METHODS

Retrospective analysis of patients who started hemodialysis between January 2014 and December 2019 in Centro Hospitalar Universitário Lisboa Norte. We evaluated mortality within one year of hemodialysis initiation. The CHA2DS2-VASc score was calculated at the start of hemodialysis.

RESULTS

Of 856 patients analyzed, their mean age was 68.3 ± 15.5 years and the majority were male (61.1%) and Caucasian (84.5%). Mortality within one-year after starting hemodialysis was 17.8% (n = 152). The CHA2DS2-VASc score was significantly higher (4.4 ± 1.7 vs. 3.5 ± 1.8, p < 0.001) in patients who died and satisfactorily predicted the one-year risk of mortality (AUC 0.646, 95% CI 0.6-0.7, p < 0.001), with a sensitivity of 71.7%, a specificity of 49.1%, a positive predictive value of 23.9% and a negative predictive value of 89.2%. In the multivariate analysis, CHA2DS2-VASc ≥3.5 (adjusted HR 2.24 95% CI (1.48-3.37), p < 0.001) and central venous catheter at dialysis initiation (adjusted HR 3.06 95% CI (1.93-4.85)) were significant predictors of one-year mortality.

CONCLUSION

A CHA2DS2-VASc score ≥3.5 and central venous catheter at hemodialysis initiation were predictors of one-year mortality, allowing for risk stratification in hemodialysis patients.

CHA2DS2-VASc and R2CHA2DS2-VASc scores predict mortality in high cardiovascular risk population

BACKGROUND

The CHA₂ DS₂ -VASc score, widely used to estimate cardioembolic risk in patients with atrial fibrillation (AF), appears to be useful also in predicting vascular adverse events and death in different sets of patients without AF. The R₂ CHA₂ DS₂ -VASc score, which includes renal impairment, allows a better prediction of death and thromboembolism in patients without AF. The aims of our study were to assess, in a large sample of patients at high cardiovascular (CV) risk, (i) the correlation between CHA₂ DS₂ -VASc and R₂ CHA₂ DS₂ -VASc with all-cause mortality, and (ii) to compare the performances of CHA₂ DS₂ -VASc and R₂ CHA₂ DS₂ -VASc in predicting all-cause mortality.

METHODS

In this single-centre prospective observational study, conducted at the Research Hospital 'Casa Sollievo della Sofferenza' between June 2016 and December 2018, 1017 CV patients at high risk of undergoing coronary angiography were enrolled.

RESULTS

CHA₂DS₂-VASc and R₂ CHA₂ DS₂ -VASc scores significantly associated with all-cause mortality. For each one-point increase in CHA₂ DS₂ -VASc or R₂ CHA₂ DS₂ -VASc scores, mortality increased by almost 1.5-fold. The R₂ CHA₂ DS₂ -VASc score (C-statistic = 0.71; 95% CI = 0.65-76) outperformed the CHA₂ DS₂ -VASc score (C-statistic = 0.66; 95% CI = 0.61-0.71) in predicting 4-year mortality (delta C-statistic = 0.05; 95% CI = 0.02-0.07). The better predictive ability of the R-CHA₂ DS₂ -VASc score was also demonstrated by an IDI = 0.027 (95% CI = 0.021-0.034, p < .00001) and a relative IDI = 62.8% (95% CI = 47.9%-81.3%, p < .00001). The R₂ CHA₂ DS₂ -VASc score correctly reclassified the patients with a NRI = 0.715 (95% = 0.544-0.940, p < .00001).

CONCLUSIONS

The CHA₂DS₂-VASc and R₂ CHA₂ DS₂ -VASc scores are useful predictors of all-cause mortality in subjects at high CV risk, with the R₂ CHA₂ DS₂ -VASc score being the best performer.

Chronic Kidney Disease with Mild and Mild to Moderate Reduction in Renal Function and Long-Term Recurrences of Atrial Fibrillation after Pulmonary Vein Cryoballoon Ablation

The aim of this research was to evaluate if patients with chronic kidney disease (CKD) and mild or mild to moderate depression of renal function have an increased risk of atrial fibrillation (AF) recurrences after cryoballoon (CB) ablation. We performed a retrospective analysis of AF patients undergoing pulmonary vein isolation (PVI) by CB. The cohort was divided according to the KDIGO CKD-EPI classification into a (1) normal, (2) mildly decreased, or (3) mild to moderate reduction in estimated glomerular filtration rate (eGFR). Freedom from AF recurrences was the primary endpoint. A total of 1971 patients were included (60 ± 10 years, 29.0% females, 73.6% paroxysmal AF) in the study. Acute success and complication rates were 99.2% and 3.7%, respectively, with no significant differences among the three groups. After a follow-up of 24 months, AF recurrences were higher in the mildly and mild to moderate CKD groups compared to the normal kidney function group (23.4% vs. 28.3% vs. 33.5%, p < 0.05). Mild to moderate CKD was an independent predictor of AF recurrences after the blanking period (hazard ratio:1.38, 95% CI 1.02−1.86, p = 0.037). In conclusion, a multicenter analysis of AF patients treated with cryoablation revealed mild to moderate reductions in renal functions were associated with a higher risk of AF recurrences. Conversely, the procedural success and complication rates were similar in patients with normal, mildly reduced, or mild to moderate reduction in eGFR.

Association of a simple SACAF score with bystander witnessed sudden death due to ventricular tachyarrhythmias in a multicenter cohort

Out-of-hospital cardiac arrest (OHCA) remains a major threat to public health worldwide. OHCA patients presenting initial shockable ventricular tachycardia/ventricular fibrillation (VT/VF) rhythm have a better survival rate. We sought to develop a simple SACAF score to discriminate VT/VF from non-VT/VF OHCAs based on the Taiwan multicenter hospital-based registry database. We analyzed the in- and pre-hospital data, including demographics, baseline comorbidities, response times, automated external defibrillator information, and the 12-lead ECG recording closest to the OHCA event in bystander-witnessed OHCA patients. Among the 461 study patients, male sex (OR 2.54, 95% CI = 1.32–4.88, P = 0.005), age ≤ 65 years (OR 2.78, 95% CI = 1.64–4.70, P < 0.001), cardiovascular diseases (OR 2.97, 95% CI = 1.73–5.11, P < 0.001), and atrial fibrillation (AF) (OR 2.36, 95% CI = 1.17–4.76, P = 0.017) were independent risk factors for VT/VF OHCA (n = 81) compared with non-VT/VF OHCA (n = 380). A composite SACAF score was developed (male Sex, Age ≤ 65 years, Cardiovascular diseases, and AF) and compared with the performance of a modified CHA₂DS₂-VASc score (Cardiovascular diseases, Hypertension, Age ≥ 75 years, Diabetes, previous Stroke, Vascular disease, Age 65–74 years, female Sex category). The area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (AUC) of the SACAF was 0.739 (95% CI = 0.681–0.797, P < 0.001), whereas the AUC of the modified CHA₂DS₂-VASc was 0.474 (95% CI = 0.408–0.541, P = 0.464). A SACAF score of ≥ 2 was useful in discriminating VT/VF from non-VT/VF OHCAs with a sensitivity of 0.75 and a specificity of 0.60. In conclusion, the simple SACAF score appears to be useful in discriminating VT/VF from non-VT/VF bystander-witnessed OHCAs and the findings may also shed light on future mechanistic evaluation.