Past and Future Performance: PEPFAR in the Landscape of Foreign Aid for Health

HIV Social-network intervention more effective in older populations in Kenya

US President's Emergency Plan for HIV/AIDS has been credited with saving 25 million lives in sub-Sahara Africa and, as such, constitutes a preeminent US foreign policy achievement of the twenty-first century. However, the implementation of effective HIV/AIDS pharmacological interventions remains a challenge in rural Kenyan communities. Of particular importance are patient retention and care engagement and their interaction with age disparities that are sensitive to different socioeconomic contexts, as well as time-in-treatment. For the first time, we perform an intermediation and triple interaction intent-to-treat secondary analysis on a social network-based randomized controlled trial. We hypothesize that the temporal interactions of critical demographic features with a treatment/control indicator variable may significantly explain patient retention and that these results are intermediated by social network phenomena. We find that not only does extended time-in-treatment significantly improve primary outcomes, but the threefold interaction along with age and treatment itself is sufficiently flexible to fit the data remarkably well without unnecessary elaboration, an effect that is mediated via internalized stigma. This strongly suggests that patient retention varies by age group. Rather than deploying one-size-fits-all solutions, foreign and public policymakers should invest in research that considers how interventions might be optimized for different ages.Trial registration Clinical Trial Number. NCT02474992 (note: the main trial report was published here https://doi.org/10.1371/journal.pone.0255945 .) Date of submission: June 6, 2015.

Disease burden of AIDS in last 30-year period and its predicted level in next 25-years based on the global burden disease 2019

BACKGROUND

This study examines global trends in acquired immune deficiency syndrome (AIDS) incidence, mortality, and disability-adjusted life years (DALYs) from 1990 to 2019, focusing on regional disparities in AIDS incidence, mortality, and DALYs across various levels of socio-demographic index (SDI). It also investigates variations in AIDS incidence, mortality, and DALYs across different age groups, and projects specific trends for the next 25 years.

METHODS

Comprehensive data on AIDS from 1990 to 2019 in 204 countries and territories was obtained from a GBD study. This included information on AIDS incidence, mortality, DALYs, and age-standardized rates (ASRs). Projections for AIDS incidence and mortality over the next 25 years were generated using the Bayesian age-period-cohort model.

RESULTS

From 1990 to 2019, the global incidence of HIV cases increased from 1,989,282 to 2,057,710, while the age-standardized incidence rate (ASIR) decreased from 37.59 to 25.24 with an estimated annual percentage change (EAPC) of -2.38. The ASIR exhibited an upward trend in high SDI and high-middle SDI regions, a stable trend in middle SDI regions, and a downward trend in low-middle SDI and low SDI regions. In regions with higher SDI, the ASIR was higher in males than in females, while the opposite was observed in lower SDI regions. Throughout 1990 to 2019, the age-standardized death rate (ASDR) and age-standardized DALY rate remained stable, with EAPCs of 0.24 and 0.08 respectively. Countries with the highest HIV burden affecting women and children under five years of age are primarily situated in lower SDI regions, particularly in sub-Saharan Africa. Projections indicate a significant continued decline in the age-standardized incidence and mortality rates of AIDS over the next 25 years, for both overall and by gender.

CONCLUSIONS

The global ASIR decreased from 1990 to 2019. Higher incidence and death rates were observed in the lower SDI region, indicating a greater susceptibility to AIDS among women and < 15 years old. This underscores the urgent need for increased resources to combat AIDS in this region, with focused attention on protecting women and < 15 years old as priority groups. The AIDS epidemic remained severe in sub-Saharan Africa. Projections for the next 25 years indicate a substantial and ongoing decline in both age-standardized incidence and mortality rates.

Assessing the impact of the president's emergency plan for AIDS relief on all-cause mortality

This study estimated the impacts of PEPFAR on all-cause mortality (ACM) rates (deaths per 1,000 population) across PEPFAR recipient countries from 2004-2018. As PEPFAR moves into its 3rd decade, this study supplements the existing literature on PEPFAR 's overall effectiveness in saving lives by focusing impact estimates on the important subgroups of countries that received different intensities of aid, and provides estimates of impact for different phases of this 15-year period study. The study uses a country-level panel data set of 157 low- and middle-income countries (LMICs) from 1990-2018, including 90 PEPFAR recipient countries receiving bilateral aid from the U.S. government, employing difference-in-differences (DID) econometric models with several model specifications, including models with differing baseline covariates, and models with yearly covariates including other donor spending and domestic health spending. Using five different model specifications, a 10-21% decline in ACM rates from 2004 to 2018 is attributed to PEPFAR presence in the group of 90 recipient countries. Declines are somewhat larger (15-25%) in those countries that are subject to PEPFAR's country operational planning (COP) process, and where PEPFAR per capita aid amounts are largest (17-27%). Across the 90 recipient countries we study, the average impact across models is estimated to be a 7.6% reduction in ACM in the first 5-year period (2004-2008), somewhat smaller in the second 5-year period (5.5%) and in the third 5-year period (4.7%). In COP countries the impacts show decreases in ACM of 7.4% in the first period attributed to PEPFAR, 7.7% reductions in the second, and 6.6% reductions in the third. PEPFAR presence is correlated with large declines in the ACM rate, and the overall life-saving results persisted over time. The effects of PEFAR on ACM have been large, suggesting the possibility of spillover life-saving impacts of PEPFAR programming beyond HIV disease alone.

Analysis of maternal and child health spillover effects in PEPFAR countries

OBJECTIVES

This study examined whether the US President's Emergency Plan for AIDS Relief (PEPFAR) funding had effects beyond HIV, specifically on several measures of maternal and child health in low-income and middle-income countries (LMICs). The results of previous research on the question of PEPFAR health spillovers have been inconsistent. This study, using a large, multicountry panel data set of 157 LMICs including 90 recipient countries, adds to the literature.

DESIGN

Seven indicators including child and maternal mortality, several child vaccination rates and anaemia among childbearing-age women are important population health indicators. Panel data and difference-in-differences estimators (DID) were used to estimate the impact of the PEPFAR programme from inception in 2004 to 2018 using a comparison group of 67 LMICs. Several different models of baseline (2004) covariates were used to help balance the comparison and treatment groups. Staggered DID was used to estimate impacts since all countries did not start receiving aid at PEPFAR's inception.

SETTING

All 157 LMICs from 1990 to 2018.

PARTICIPANTS

90 LMICs receiving PEPFAR aid and cohorts of those countries, including those required to submit annual country operational plans (COP), other recipient countries (non-COP), and three groupings of countries based on cumulative amount of per capita aid received (high, medium, low).

INTERVENTIONS

PEPFAR aid to combat the HIV epidemic.

PRIMARY OUTCOME MEASURES

Maternal mortality and child mortality rates, vaccination rates to protect children for diphtheria, whooping cough and tetanus, measles, HepB3, and tetanus, and prevalence of anaemia in women of childbearing age.

RESULTS

Across PEPFAR recipient countries, large, favourable PEPFAR health effects were found for rates of childhood immunisation, child mortality and maternal mortality. These beneficial health effects were large and significant in all segments of PEPFAR recipient countries studied. We also found significant and favourable programme effects on the prevalence of anaemia in women of childbearing age in PEPFAR recipient countries receiving the most intensive financial support from the PEPFAR programme. Other recipient countries did not demonstrate significant effects on anaemia.

CONCLUSIONS

This study demonstrated that important health indicators, beyond HIV, have been consistently and favourably influenced by PEPFAR presence. Child and maternal mortality have been substantially reduced, and childhood immunisation rates increased. We also found no evidence of 'crowding out' or negative spillovers in these resource-poor countries. These findings add to the body of evidence that PEPFAR has had favourable health effects beyond HIV. The implications of these findings are that foreign aid for health in one area may have favourable health effects in other areas in recipient countries. More research is needed on the influence of the mechanisms at work that create these spillover health effects of PEPFAR.

Stand-alone model for delivery of oral HIV pre-exposure prophylaxis in Kenya: a single-arm, prospective pilot evaluation

INTRODUCTION

The delivery of daily, oral HIV pre-exposure prophylaxis (PrEP) at private pharmacies may overcome barriers to PrEP delivery at public healthcare facilities, including HIV-associated stigma, long wait times and overcrowding.

METHODS

At five private, community-based pharmacies in Kenya, a care pathway for PrEP delivery (ClinicalTrials.gov: NCT04558554) was piloted-the first of its kind in Africa. Pharmacy providers screened clients interested in PrEP for HIV risk, then used a prescribing checklist to identify clients without medical conditions that might contraindicate PrEP safety, counsel them on PrEP use and safety, conduct provider-assisted HIV self-testing and dispense PrEP. For complex clinical cases, a remote clinician was available for consultation. Clients who did not meet the checklist criteria were referred to public facilities for free services delivered by clinicians. Pharmacy providers dispensed a 1-month PrEP supply at initiation and a 3-month supply thereafter at a client fee of 300 KES (∼$3 USD) per visit.

RESULTS

From November 2020 to October 2021, pharmacy providers screened 575 clients, identified 476 who met the prescribing checklist criteria and initiated 287 (60%) on PrEP. Among pharmacy PrEP clients, the median age was 26 years (IQR 22-33) and 57% (163/287) were male. The prevalence of behaviours associated with HIV risk among clients was high; 84% (240/287) reported sexual partners with unknown HIV status and 53% (151/287) reported multiple sexual partners (past 6 months). PrEP continuation among clients was 53% (153/287) at 1 month, 36% (103/287) at 4 months and 21% (51/242) at 7 months. During the pilot observation period, 21% (61/287) of clients stopped and restarted PrEP and overall pill coverage was 40% (IQR 10%-70%). Nearly, all pharmacy PrEP clients (≥96%) agreed or strongly agreed with statements regarding the acceptability and appropriateness of pharmacy-delivered PrEP services.

CONCLUSIONS

Findings from this pilot suggest that populations at HIV risk frequently visit private pharmacies and PrEP initiation and continuation at pharmacies is similar to or exceeds that at public healthcare facilities. Private pharmacy-based PrEP delivery, conducted entirely by private-sector pharmacy staff, is a promising new delivery model that has the potential to expand PrEP reach in Kenya and similar settings.

Social normative origins of the taboo gap and implications for adolescent risk for HIV infection in Zambia

Zambian Demographic and Health Survey data reveal that increased discordance between professed attitudes and measures of behaviour regarding premarital sex among adults is strongly associated with increased risk of HIV in adolescents, particularly girls. We hypothesised that this was due to the reluctance to talk about premarital sex, resulting in a situation we call the “taboo gap” where sexual behaviour is a forbidden topic and adolescents feel unable to seek advice or sexual and reproductive health services. Our analysis revealed that the taboo gap is rooted in harmful gender norms that are perpetuated by schools, churches, cultural influences, development programmes and health systems. Challenges like food insecurity and household poverty may place girls in positions where they are vulnerable to sexual exploitation, increasing their risk of exposure to HIV. Unmarried adolescents, particularly girls, report being ridiculed when they go to reproductive health clinics, which discourages them from seeking care in the future. Strengthening peer support and parent-child interactions are important programmatic elements. We conclude that discordance serves as a novel measure and harbinger for the presence of gender norms which generated a taboo gap that impeded carseeking and increased risk for HIV among adolescents, especially girls, in Zambia. We propose that successful interventions must involve a multifaceted, gender transformative approach which engages peers and stakeholders in schools, churches, clinics, and families, particularly parents, to reduce the gendered gap in HIV risk and transmission.

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Premarital sex attitude-behaviour discordance is associated with risk of adolescent HIV.

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Taboo gap occurs where sexual behaviour is a forbidden topic and impedes care-seeking.

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Taboo gap was generated in schools, churches, culture, and development programmes.

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Unmarried adolescents, especially girls, risk sanction in seeking reproductive care.

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Strengthening peer support and parent-child interactions are important programmatically.

Leveraging HIV Care Infrastructures for Integrated Chronic Disease and Pandemic Management in Sub-Saharan Africa

In Sub-Saharan Africa, communicable and other tropical infectious diseases remain major challenges apart from the continuing HIV/AIDS epidemic. Recognition and prevalence of non-communicable diseases have risen throughout Africa, and the reimagining of healthcare delivery is needed to support communities coping with not only with HIV, tuberculosis, and COVID-19, but also cancer, cardiovascular disease, diabetes, and depression. Many non-communicable diseases can be prevented or treated with low-cost interventions, yet implementation of such care has been limited in the region. In this Perspective piece, we argue that deployment of an integrated service delivery model is an urgent next step, propose a South African model for integration, and conclude with recommendations for next steps in research and implementation. An approach that is inspired by South African experience would build on existing HIV-focused infrastructure that has been developed by Ministries of Health with strong support from the U.S. President’s Emergency Response for AIDS Relief (PEPFAR) and the Global Fund to Fight AIDS, Tuberculosis and Malaria. An integrated chronic healthcare model holds promise to sustainably deliver infectious disease and non-communicable disease care. Integrated care will be especially critical as health systems seek to cope with the unprecedented challenges associated with COVID-19 and future pandemic threats.

Scaling-up PrEP Delivery in Sub-Saharan Africa: What Can We Learn from the Scale-up of ART?

Purpose of Review

Clinical trials have found that PrEP is highly effective in reducing risk of HIV acquisition across types of exposure, gender, PrEP regimens, and dosing schemes. Evidence is urgently needed to inform scale-up of PrEP to meet the ambitious WHO/UNAIDS prevention target of 3,000,000 individuals on PrEP by 2020.

Recent Findings

Successful models of delivering HIV services at scale evolved from years of formal research and programmatic evidence. These efforts produced lessons-learned relevant for scaling-up PrEP delivery, including the importance of streamlining laboratory tests, expanding prescription and management authority, differentiating medication access points, and reducing stigma and barriers of parental consent for PrEP uptake. Further research is especially needed in areas differentiating PrEP from ART delivery, including repeat HIV testing to ensure HIV negative status and defining and measuring prevention-effective adherence.

Summary

Evidence from 15 years of ART scale-up could immediately inform a public health approach to PrEP delivery.

Funding blood safety in the 21st century

BACKGROUND

Since 2000, there has been an historic increase in international development assistance, including blood safety projects. The result has been increased blood donations and infectious disease screening in many beneficiary countries. A comprehensive examination of international development assistance for blood safety has yet to be completed.

STUDY DESIGN AND METHODS

This report examines publicly available information, including donor agency websites and databases and data from the 2008 and 2012 World Health Organization Global Database on Blood Safety.

RESULTS

Between 2000 and 2015, from $602.4 million to $2.1 billion in international development assistance was allocated to blood safety programs worldwide, mostly as part of the global response to the human immunodeficiency virus/acquired immunodeficiency syndrome epidemic. The US President's Emergency Plan for AIDS Relief and the Global Fund to Fight AIDS, Tuberculosis, and Malaria were responsible for the majority of blood safety funding, which peaked in 2010 and declined through 2015.

CONCLUSION

Between 2000 and 2015, countries with high burdens of human immunodeficiency virus/acquired immunodeficiency syndrome received funding and technical assistance to improve national laboratories, increase blood component production, and strengthen clinical practice. Global trends in international development assistance at large, including aid for blood safety, suggest that funding will not rebound.