Hyperchloremia, not Concomitant Hypernatremia, Independently Predicts Early Mortality in Critically Ill Moderate-Severe Traumatic Brain Injury Patients

Machine learning-based prediction of clinical outcomes after traumatic brain injury: Hidden information of early physiological time series

AIMS

To assess the predictive value of early-stage physiological time-series (PTS) data and non-interrogative electronic health record (EHR) signals, collected within 24 h of ICU admission, for traumatic brain injury (TBI) patient outcomes.

METHODS

Using data from TBI patients in the multi-center eICU database, we focused on in-hospital mortality, neurological status based on the Glasgow Coma Score (mGCS) motor subscore at discharge, and prolonged ICU stay (PLOS). Three machine learning (ML) models were developed, utilizing EHR features, PTS signals collected 24 h after ICU admission, and their combination. External validation was performed using the MIMIC III dataset, and interpretability was enhanced using the Shapley Additive Explanations (SHAP) algorithm.

RESULTS

The analysis included 1085 TBI patients. Compared to individual models and existing scoring systems, the combination of EHR and PTS features demonstrated comparable or even superior performance in predicting in-hospital mortality (AUROC = 0.878), neurological outcomes (AUROC = 0.877), and PLOS (AUROC = 0.835). The model's performance was validated in the MIMIC III dataset, and SHAP algorithms identified six key intervention points for EHR features related to prognostic outcomes. Moreover, the EHR results (All AUROC >0.8) were translated into online tools for clinical use.

CONCLUSION

Our study highlights the importance of early-stage PTS signals in predicting TBI patient outcomes. The integration of interpretable algorithms and simplified prediction tools can support treatment decision-making, contributing to the development of accurate prediction models and timely clinical intervention.

Guidelines for Neuroprognostication in Critically Ill Adults with Moderate-Severe Traumatic Brain Injury

BACKGROUND

Moderate-severe traumatic brain injury (msTBI) carries high morbidity and mortality worldwide. Accurate neuroprognostication is essential in guiding clinical decisions, including patient triage and transition to comfort measures. Here we provide recommendations regarding the reliability of major clinical predictors and prediction models commonly used in msTBI neuroprognostication, guiding clinicians in counseling surrogate decision-makers.

METHODS

Using the Grading of Recommendations Assessment, Development, and Evaluation (GRADE) methodology, we conducted a systematic narrative review of the most clinically relevant predictors and prediction models cited in the literature. The review involved framing specific population/intervention/comparator/outcome/timing/setting (PICOTS) questions and employing stringent full-text screening criteria to examine the literature, focusing on four GRADE criteria: quality of evidence, desirability of outcomes, values and preferences, and resource use. Moreover, good practice recommendations addressing the key principles of neuroprognostication were drafted.

RESULTS

After screening 8125 articles, 41 met our eligibility criteria. Ten clinical variables and nine grading scales were selected. Many articles varied in defining "poor" functional outcomes. For consistency, we treated "poor" as "unfavorable". Although many clinical variables are associated with poor outcome in msTBI, only the presence of bilateral pupillary nonreactivity on admission, conditional on accurate assessment without confounding from medications or injuries, was deemed moderately reliable for counseling surrogates regarding 6-month functional outcomes or in-hospital mortality. In terms of prediction models, the Corticosteroid Randomization After Significant Head Injury (CRASH)-basic, CRASH-CT (CRASH-basic extended by computed tomography features), International Mission for Prognosis and Analysis of Clinical Trials in TBI (IMPACT)-core, IMPACT-extended, and IMPACT-lab models were recommended as moderately reliable in predicting 14-day to 6-month mortality and functional outcomes at 6 months and beyond. When using "moderately reliable" predictors or prediction models, the clinician must acknowledge "substantial" uncertainty in the prognosis.

CONCLUSIONS

These guidelines provide recommendations to clinicians on the formal reliability of individual predictors and prediction models of poor outcome when counseling surrogates of patients with msTBI and suggest broad principles of neuroprognostication.

Association of hyperchloremia and acute kidney injury in pediatric patients with moderate and severe traumatic brain injury

PURPOSE

Acute kidney injury (AKI) is an established complication of adult traumatic brain injury (TBI) and known risk factor for mortality. Evidence demonstrates an association between hyperchloremia and AKI in critically ill adults but studies in children are scarce. Given frequent use of hypertonic saline in the management of pediatric TBI, we believe the incidence of hyperchloremia will be high and hypothesize that it will be associated with development of AKI.

METHODS

Single-center retrospective cohort study was completed at an urban, level 1 pediatric trauma center. Children > 40 weeks corrected gestational age and < 21 years of age with moderate or severe TBI (presenting GCS < 13) admitted between January 2016 and December 2021 were included. Primary study outcome was presence of AKI (defined by pediatric Kidney Disease: Improving Global Outcomes criteria) within 7 days of hospitalization and compared between patients with and without hyperchloremia (serum chloride ≥ 110 mEq/L).

RESULTS

Fifty-two children were included. Mean age was 5.75 (S.D. 5.4) years; 60% were male (31/52); and mean presenting GCS was 6 (S.D. 2.9). Thirty-seven patients (71%) developed hyperchloremia with a mean peak chloride of 125 (S.D. 12.0) mEq/L and mean difference between peak and presenting chloride of 16 (S.D. 12.7) mEq/L. Twenty-three patients (44%) developed AKI; of those with hyperchloremia, 62% (23/37) developed AKI, while among those without hyperchloremia, 0% (0/15) developed AKI (difference 62%, 95% CI 42-82%, p < 0.001). Attributable risk of hyperchloremia leading to AKI was 62.2 (95% CI 46.5-77.8, p = 0.0015).

CONCLUSION

Hyperchloremia is common in the management of pediatric TBI and is associated with development of AKI. Risk appears to be associated with both the height of serum chloride and duration of hyperchloremia.

Predicting mortality in moderate-severe TBI patients without early withdrawal of life-sustaining treatments including ICU complications: The MYSTIC-score

PURPOSE

To develop and internally validate the MortalitY in Moderate-Severe TBI plus ICU Complications (MYSTIC)-Score to predict in-hospital mortality of msTBI patients without early (<24 h) withdrawal-of-life-sustaining treatments.

METHODS

We analyzed data from a Neuro-Trauma Intensive Care Unit prospectively collected between 11/2009-5/2019. Consecutive adult msTBI patients were included if Glasgow Coma Scale≤12, and neither died nor had withdrawal-of-life-sustaining treatments within 24 h of admission (n = 485). Using univariate and multivariable logistic regression in a random-split cohort approach (2/3 derivation;1/3 validation), we identified independent predictors of in-hospital mortality while adjusting for validated predictors of mortality (IMPACT-variables). We constructed the MYSTIC-Score and examined discrimination and calibration.

RESULTS

The MYSTIC-Score included the ICU complications brain edema, herniation, systemic inflammatory response syndrome, sepsis, acute kidney injury, cardiac arrest, and urinary tract infection. In the derivation cohort(n = 324), discrimination and calibration were excellent (area-under-the-receiver-operating-curve [AUC-ROC] = 0.95;Hosmer-Lemeshow p-value = 0.09, with p > 0.05 indicating good calibration). Internal validation revealed an AUC-ROC = 0.93 and Hosmer-Lemeshow-p-value = 0.76 (n = 161).

CONCLUSIONS

Certain ICU complications are independent predictors of in-hospital mortality and strengthen outcome prediction in msTBI when combined with validated admission predictors of mortality. However, external validation is needed to determine robustness and practical applicability of our model given the high potential for residual confounders.

Trauma-related electrolyte disturbances: From resuscitation to rhabdomyolysis

Traumatic injury results in drastic changes to a patient's normal physiology. The hormonal stress response, as well as some treatment strategies, lead to significant disruptions in electrolyte homeostasis that are important for clinicians to understand. In addition, advances in fluid resuscitation and modern transfusion practices have led to their own unique set of consequences, which we are just beginning to appreciate. Special attention is placed on rhabdomyolysis, as this distinct entity represents an extreme example of injury induced electrolyte derangements. This review describes the physiologic response to trauma and highlights some of the important electrolyte abnormalities that can be encountered while caring for the injured patient.

Increase in chloride from baseline is independently associated with mortality in intracerebral hemorrhage patients admitted to intensive care unit: A retrospective study

Background

Hyperchloremia is associated with increased mortality in critically ill patients. The objective of this study was to investigate the association between increased chloride levels and mortality outcomes in intracerebral hemorrhage (ICH) patients admitted to the intensive care unit (ICU).

Methods

We performed a retrospective study of all patients diagnosed with ICH and included in the Medical Information Mart for Intensive Care (MIMIC-Ⅲ) from 2001 to 2012. Inclusion criteria were the first diagnosis of ICH, ICU length of stay (LOS) over 72 h, and not receiving hypertonic saline treatment. Serum chloride perturbation within 72 h of admission was evaluated as a predictor of outcomes. The increase in chloride from baseline was dichotomized based on an increase in chloride in 72 h (≤5 mmol/L or >5 mmol/L). The primary outcome was 90-day mortality.

Results

A total of 376 patients (54.5% male, median age 70 years, interquartile range:58-79 years) were included. The overall 90-day mortality was 32.2% (n=121), in-hospital mortality was 25.8% (n=97), and Day 2 acute kidney injury (AKI) occurred in 29.0% (n=109) of patients. The prevalence of hyperchloremia on admission, during the first 72 h, and an increase in chloride (>5 mmol/L) were 8.8%, 39.4%, and 42.8%, respectively. After adjusting for confounders, the hazard ratio of increase in chloride (>5 mmol/L) was 1.66 (95% confidence interval:1.05-2.64, P=0.031). An increase in chloride (>5 mmol/L) was associated with a higher odds ratio for 90-day mortality in both the AKI and non-AKI groups.

Conclusions

An increase in chloride from baseline is common in adult patients with ICH admitted to ICU. The increase is significantly associated with elevated mortality. These results support the significance of diligently monitoring chloride levels in these patients.

A teaspoon of sugar and a pinch of salt: Reviewing hyperosmolar therapy

ABSTRACT

The traditional hyperosmolar agents used to treat patients with elevated intracranial pressure are mannitol and hypertonic sodium chloride solution. This article focuses on some of the pros and cons of these treatments for managing cerebral edema.

XGBoost Machine Learning Algorithm for Prediction of Outcome in Aneurysmal Subarachnoid Hemorrhage

BACKGROUND

Patients suffered aneurysmal subarachnoid hemorrhage (aSAH) usually develop poor survival and functional outcome. Evaluating aSAH patients at high risk of poor outcome is necessary for clinicians to make suitable therapeutical strategy. This study is conducted to develop prognostic model using XGBoost (extreme gradient boosting) algorithm in aSAH.

METHODS

A total of 351 aSAH patients admitted to West China hospital were identified. Patients were divided into training set and test set with ratio of 7:3 to testify the predictive value of XGBoost based prognostic model. Additionally, logistic regression model was also constructed and compared with XGBoost based model. Area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (AUC), sensitivity and specificity were calculated to evaluate the value of XGBoost and logistic regression.

RESULTS

There were 74 (21.1%) non-survivors and 148 (42.1%) patients with unfavorable functional outcome. Non-survivors had older age (p=0.025), lower Glasgow coma scale (GCS) (p<0.001), higher World Federation of Neurosurgical Societies WFNS score (p<0.001), mFisher score (p<0.001). The incidence of intraventricular hemorrhage (IVH) (p=0.025) and delayed cerebral ischemia (DCI) (p<0.001) was higher in non-survivors than survivors. The AUC of XGBoost model for predicting mortality and unfavorable functional outcome were 0.950 and 0.958, which were higher than 0.767 and 0.829 of logistic regression model.

CONCLUSION

XGBoost based model is more precise than logistic regression model in predicting outcome of aSAH patients. Using XGBoost prognostic model is helpful for clinicians to identify high-risk aSAH patients and therefore strengthen medical care.

Electrolyte imbalance in infectious disease patients at King Abdulaziz Hospital, Jeddah

Objectives

Infectious diseases are the common cause of morbidity and mortality among humans. Electrolyte imbalance occurs frequently in patients with infectious diseases. This study aims to identify electrolyte imbalances in hospitalised patients with infectious diseases.

Methods

Two hundred and eighty-three patients with age mean 36.48 ± 18.86 years, consisting of 127 (53.4%) males, 111 (46.6%) females, enrolled in a retrospective cohort study carried out at the King Abdulaziz University Hospital, Jeddah, KSA from September to December 2020. All hospitalised patients with infectious diseases were included. Demographic data, comorbidity, and diagnosis were collected from patients’ sheets. Serum levels of electrolytes (chloride, potassium, sodium), urea, and creatinine were collected at admission (period 1), during hospital stay (period 2), and at discharge (period 3). Levels were compared during different periods.

Results

Most infectious diseases were viral infections (63.4%), while comorbidity was diabetes mellitus (7.1%). Serum chloride elevated from period 1 to period 3 (P = 0.046). Sodium elevated between period 1 and both period 2 and period 3 (P < 0.001). Urea decreased between period 1 and both period 2 (P = 0.018) and period 3 (P < 0.001). Creatinine decreased between period 1 and both period 2 and period 3 (P < 0.001) and between period 2 and period 3 (P < 0.001). Patients with decreased chloride and sodium levels were mostly in the 1st period, while those with decreased potassium levels were mostly in the period 2.

Conclusion

Prevalence of electrolyte imbalance in hospitalised patients with an infectious disease at the King Abdulaziz University Hospital, Jeddah was high, especially at admission and during the hospital stay.

Serum Chloride and Mortality in patients on continuous ambulatory peritoneal dialysis: A multi-center retrospective study

BACKGROUND

Lower serum chloride is associated with a higher risk of mortality in the general population. However, the association has received little attention in peritoneal dialysis patients. The study aimed to examine the association between serum chloride and mortality in peritoneal dialysis patients.

METHODS

In this multicenter retrospective cohort study, 2376 Chinese incident patients on peritoneal dialysis between January 1, 2005, and March 31, 2020, were included. Patients were grouped according to quartiles of serum chloride at baseline. The associations of baseline serum chloride and cardiovascular mortality and all-cause mortality were evaluated using cause-specific hazards models.

FINDINGS

Of 2376 patients, the mean age was 45.9 (45.3,46.5) years, 50.1% of patients were men. The median serum chloride levels were 103.0 (99.0,106.9) mmol/L. During 9304.5 person-years of follow-up, 462 patients died, of which 235 deaths were caused by cardiovascular disease. The highest quartile group was associated with a higher risk of cardiovascular mortality (adjusted hazards ratio [HR], 2.95; 95% confidence interval [CI], 1.80 to 4.95) and all-cause mortality (adjusted HR, 2.03; 95% CI, 1.45 to 2.83) compared with the lowest quartile. The similar trend was also found when serum chloride levels were deal as continuous variable.

INTERPRETATION

Higher serum chloride at the initial of peritoneal dialysis was associated with a higher risk of cardiovascular mortality and all-cause mortality in patients on peritoneal dialysis.

FUNDING

This work was supported by Shanghai Municipal Health Commission (2019SY018).

High Chloride Burden and Clinical Outcomes in Critically Ill Patients With Large Hemispheric Infarction

Background: In general, disease severity has been found to be associated with abnormal chloride levels in critically ill patients, but hyperchloremia is associated with mixed results regarding patient-centered clinical outcomes. We aimed to investigate the impact of maximum serum chloride concentration on the clinical outcomes of critically ill patients with large hemispheric infarction (LHI).

Methods: We conducted a retrospective observational cohort study using prospective institutional neurocritical care registry data from 2013 to 2018. Patients with LHIs involving over two-thirds of middle cerebral artery territory, with or without infarction of other vascular territories, and a baseline National Institutes of Health Stroke Scale score of ≥13 were assessed. Those with a baseline creatinine clearance of <15 mL/min and required neurocritical care for <72 h were excluded. Primary outcome was in-hospital mortality. Secondary outcomes included 3-month mortality and acute kidney injury (AKI) occurrence. Outcomes were compared to different maximum serum chloride levels (5 mmol/L increases) during the entire hospitalization period using multivariable logistic regression analyses.

Results: Of 90 patients, 20 (22.2%) died in-hospital. Patients who died in-hospital had significantly higher maximum serum chloride levels than did those who survived up to hospital discharge (139.7 ± 8.1 vs. 119.1 ± 10.4 mmol/L; p < 0.001). After adjusting for age, sex, and Glasgow coma scale score, each 5-mmol/L increase in maximum serum chloride concentration was independently associated with an increased risk of in-hospital mortality (adjusted odds ratio (aOR), 4.34; 95% confidence interval [CI], 1.98–9.50; p < 0.001). Maximum serum chloride level was also an independent risk factor for 3-month mortality (aOR, 1.99 [per 5 mmol/L increase]; 95% CI, 1.42–2.79; p < 0.001) and AKI occurrence (aOR, 1.57 [per 5 mmol/L increase]; 95% CI, 1.18–2.08; p = 0.002).

Conclusions: High maximum serum chloride concentrations were associated with poor clinical outcomes in critically ill patients with LHI. This study highlights the importance of monitoring serum chloride levels and avoiding hyperchloremia in this patient population.

Pediatric Mortality and Acute Kidney Injury Are Associated with Chloride Abnormalities in Intensive Care Units in the United States: A Multicenter Observational Study

Our objective was to determine in children in the intensive care unit (ICU) the incidence of hyperchloremia (>110 mmol/L) and hypochloremia (<98 mmol/L), the association of diagnoses with chloride abnormalities, and the associations of mortality and acute kidney injury (AKI) with chloride abnormalities. We analyzed the initial, maximum, and minimum chloride measurements of 14,684 children in the ICU with ≥1 chloride measurement in the Health Facts database between 2009 and 2016. For hyperchloremia and hypochloremia compared with normochloremia, mortality rates increased three to fivefold and AKI rates increased 1.5 to threefold. The highest mortality rate (7.7%; n = 95/1,234) occurred with hyperchloremia in the minimum chloride measurement group and the highest AKI rate (7.7%; n = 72/930) occurred with hypochloremia in the initial chloride measurement group. The most common diagnostic categories associated with chloride abnormalities were injury and poisoning; respiratory; central nervous system; infectious and parasitic diseases; and endocrine, nutritional, metabolic, and immunity disorders. Controlled for race, gender, age, and diagnostic categories, mortality odds ratios, and AKI odds ratios were significantly higher for hyperchloremia and hypochloremia compared with normochloremia. In conclusion, hyperchloremia and hypochloremia are independently associated with mortality and AKI in children in the ICU.

Hospital-Acquired Serum Chloride Derangements and Associated In-Hospital Mortality

Background: We aimed to describe the incidence of hospital-acquired dyschloremia and its association with in-hospital mortality in general hospitalized patients. Methods: All hospitalized patients from 2009 to 2013 who had normal admission serum chloride and at least two serum chloride measurements in the hospital were studied. The normal range of serum chloride was defined as 100–108 mmol/L. Hospital serum chloride levels were grouped based on the occurrence of hospital-acquired hypochloremia and hyperchloremia. The association of hospital-acquired hypochloremia and hyperchloremia with in-hospital mortality was analyzed using logistic regression. Results: Among the total of 39,298 hospitalized patients, 59% had persistently normal hospital serum chloride levels, 21% had hospital-acquired hypochloremia only, 15% had hospital-acquired hyperchloremia only, and 5% had both hypochloremia and hyperchloremia. Compared with patients with persistently normal hospital serum chloride levels, hospital-acquired hyperchloremia only (odds ratio or OR 2.84; p < 0.001) and both hospital-acquired hypochloremia and hyperchloremia (OR 1.72; p = 0.004) were associated with increased in-hospital mortality, whereas hospital-acquired hypochloremia only was not (OR 0.91; p = 0.54). Conclusions: Approximately 40% of hospitalized patients developed serum chloride derangements. Hospital-acquired hyperchloremia, but not hypochloremia, was associated with increased in-hospital mortality.