Age-period-cohort effect on female breast cancer mortality in Southern Spain

Mortality due to breast cancer in a region of high socioeconomic vulnerability in Brazil: Analysis of the effect of age-period and cohort

INTRODUCTION

Breast cancer is an important public health problem worldwide, with important disparities in incidence, mortality, and survival rates between developed and developing countries due to inequalities regarding access to measures for the prevention and treatment of the disease. In Brazil, there are higher rates of incidence and a downward trend in mortality in regions of greater socioeconomic development.

OBJECTIVE

To evaluate the effect of age, period, and birth cohort on breast cancer mortality in women aged 20 years and older in the states of the Northeast Region of Brazil, an area of high socioeconomic vulnerability, from 1980 to 2019.

METHODS

The death records were extracted from the DATASUS Mortality Information System website (Department of National Health Informatics) from the Ministry of Health of Brazil. Estimable functions were used to estimate the age-period and cohort models (APC) using the Epi library from the R statistical software version 6.4.1.

RESULTS

The average breast cancer mortality rate for the period was 20.45 deaths per 100,000 women. The highest coefficients per 100,000 women were observed in the states of Pernambuco (21.09 deaths) and Ceará (20.85 deaths), and the lowest in Maranhão (13.58 deaths) and Piauí (15.43 deaths). In all of the locations, there was a progressive increase in mortality rates in individuals over 40 years of age, with higher rates in the last five-year period (2015-2019). There was an increase in the risk of death for the five-year period of the 2000s in relation to the reference period (1995-1999) in the Northeast region and in the states of Alagoas, Bahia, Maranhão, Paraíba, and Piauí. In addition, there was an increased risk of death for women born after the 1950s in all locations.

CONCLUSION

The highest mortality rates in all five-year periods analyzed were observed in states with greater socioeconomic development, with an increase in mortality rates in the 2000s, and a higher risk of death in the younger cohorts.

A generalized additive model to disentangle age and diagnosis-specific cohort effects in psychological and behavioral outcomes in people living with HIV: the French cross-sectional ANRS-VESPA2 survey

BACKGROUND

Unlike their younger counterparts, some of today's older HIV patients were diagnosed before the advent of highly active antiretroviral therapy (HAART). The psychosocial and behavioral outcomes of people living with HIV (PLWH) have been widely studied, and associated factors are well known. However, their evolution both in terms of age and diagnosis-specific cohort effects is not well understood.

METHODS

Data from the ANRS-VESPA2 cross-sectional survey, representative of French PLWH, were used to investigate whether psychosocial and behavioral outcomes such as quality of life, need for support and HIV status disclosure, evolve under both the influence of patients' age and diagnosis-specific cohort effects. A semi-parametric generalized additive model (GAM) was employed. The physical and mental components of health-related quality of life, the need for material and moral support, and HIV-status disclosure, constituted our outcomes.

RESULTS

Non-linear diagnosis-specific cohort effects were found for physical and mental QoL and HIV-status disclosure. Overall, physical QoL was better in recently diagnosed patients than in those diagnosed in the early 1980s. An increasing influence of diagnosis-specific cohort effects between 1983 and 1995 was observed. No cohort effects were noticeable between 1996 and 2000, while an increasing influence was apparent for patients diagnosed with HIV from 2000 to 2011 (year of study). For mental QoL, the only increase was observed in participants diagnosed with HIV between 1983 and 2000. The relationship between diagnosis-specific cohort effects and HIV status disclosure was negative overall: participants diagnosed after 2000 were much less likely to disclose than those diagnosed before 1995. The effect of age was significantly associated with all outcomes, with a non-linear influence on mental QoL and with the need for material/moral support.

CONCLUSIONS

Psychosocial and behavioral outcomes are complex processes which can be explained in different ways by a combination of the clinical and social contexts which PLWH are exposed to at the time of diagnosis, and by developmental characteristics. A greater understanding of these processes could inform healthcare policy-making for specific HIV generations and different HIV age groups.

Geographical and Temporal Variations in Female Breast Cancer Mortality in the Municipalities of Andalusia (Southern Spain)

The last published figures have shown geographical variations in mortality with respect to female breast cancer in European countries. However, national health policies need a dynamic image of the geographical variations within the country. The aim of this paper was to describe the spatial distribution of age-specific mortality rates from female breast cancer in the municipalities of Andalusia (southern Spain) and to analyze its evolution over time from 1981 to 2012. An ecological study was devised. Two spatio-temporal hierarchical Bayesian models were estimated. One of these was used to estimate the age-specific mortality rate for each municipality, together with its time trends, and the other was used to estimate the age-specific rate ratio compared with Spain as a whole. The results showed that 98% of the municipalities exhibited a decreasing or a flat mortality trend for all the age groups. In 2012, the geographical variability of the age-specific mortality rates was small, especially for population groups below 65. In addition, more than 96.6% of the municipalities showed an age-specific mortality rate similar to the corresponding rate for Spain, and there were no identified significant clusters. This information will contribute towards a reflection on the past, present and future of breast cancer outcomes in Andalusia.

Can multiple SNP testing in BRCA2 and BRCA1 female carriers be used to improve risk prediction models in conjunction with clinical assessment?

BACKGROUND

Several single nucleotide polymorphisms (SNPs) at different loci have been associated with breast cancer susceptibility, accounting for around 10% of the familial component. Recent studies have found direct associations between specific SNPs and breast cancer in BRCA1/2 mutation carriers. Our aim was to determine whether validated susceptibility SNP scores improve the predictive ability of risk models in comparison/conjunction to other clinical/demographic information.

METHODS

Female BRCA1/2 carriers were identified from the Manchester genetic database, and included in the study regardless of breast cancer status or age. DNA was extracted from blood samples provided by these women and used for gene and SNP profiling. Estimates of survival were examined with Kaplan-Meier curves. Multivariable Cox proportional hazards models were fit in the separate BRCA datasets and in menopausal stages screening different combinations of clinical/demographic/genetic variables. Nonlinear random survival forests were also fit to identify relevant interactions. Models were compared using Harrell's concordance index (1 - c-index).

RESULTS

548 female BRCA1 mutation carriers and 523 BRCA2 carriers were identified from the database. Median Kaplan-Meier estimate of survival was 46.0 years (44.9-48.1) for BRCA1 carriers and 48.9 (47.3-50.4) for BRCA2. By fitting Cox models and random survival forests, including both a genetic SNP score and clinical/demographic variables, average 1 - c-index values were 0.221 (st.dev. 0.019) for BRCA1 carriers and 0.215 (st.dev. 0.018) for BRCA2 carriers.

CONCLUSIONS

Random survival forests did not yield higher performance compared to Cox proportional hazards. We found improvement in prediction performance when coupling the genetic SNP score with clinical/demographic markers, which warrants further investigation.