Correction to: Acute-on-chronic liver failure: consensus recommendations of the Asian Pacific association for the study of the liver (APASL): an update

Adult-to-adult right lobe graft living donor liver transplantation for acute-on-chronic liver failure: a single-centre retrospective study in Vietnam

Introduction

Acute-on-chronic liver failure (ACLF) has a high mortality rate, and liver transplantation is considered a definite treatment for patients with this condition. This study aims to evaluate the outcomes of living donor liver transplantation (LDLT) in ACLF patients in a single centre in a lower middle-income country, Vietnam.

Materials and methods

This was a retrospective study at the 108 Military Central Hospital (Hanoi, Vietnam), enroling 51 patients diagnosed with ACLF based on Asian Pacific Association for the Study of the Liver (APASL) criteria who underwent LDLT with a right lobe graft from December 2019 to December 2022. The authors utilize the model for end-stage liver disease (MELD) and APASL ACLF Research Consortium (AARC) scores to evaluate and stratify the severity of ACLF.

Results

The average age of all patients was 47.27±13.61, with 88.24% being male. The average BMI was 22.78±2.61. The most common underlying liver disease was chronic viral hepatitis B (88.2%). The average MELD score of the patients was 34.90±5.61, with 33.3% having MELD score greater than or equal to 40. In terms of ACLF severity, five patients (9.8%) had grade I ACLF, 35 patients (68.6%) had grade II ACLF, and 11 patients (21.6%) had grade III ACLF. The average AARC score was 9.43±1.68. The duration of treatment in the ICU was 8.59±7.27 days, and the length of hospital stay was 28.02±13.45 days. The most common post-transplant complication was biliary complication (19.61%). Death occurred in 7 patients (13.7%). The survival rates at 6 months, 1 year, and 3 years were 84%, 81.7%, and 81.7%, respectively.

Conclusion

Living donor liver transplantation for ACLF patients is safe and has a high post-transplant survival rate. Multidisciplinary care before, during, and after surgery, and the decision to do a liver transplant early, is essential in saving the lives of ACLF patients.

Nomogram for Estimation of Acute Liver Failure Risk in Spontaneous Ruptured Hepatocellular Carcinoma

Purpose

Acute liver failure (ALF) is a severe complication of spontaneous ruptured hepatocellular carcinoma (SRHCC) that requires accurate prediction for effective treatment strategies. We aimed to develop a predictive nomogram to estimate the risk of ALF in patients with SRHCC undergoing treatment.

Patients and Methods

We performed a retrospective analysis of historical data from 284 patients diagnosed with SRHCC at the First Hospital of Jilin University over the past decade. Variables were selected through univariate and multivariate logistic regression analyses, and a predictive nomogram was constructed. We evaluated its predictive accuracy against the Child-Pugh Score, R.MELD, and ALBI by assessing discrimination, calibration, and net clinical benefit.

Results

Among the 284 patients, 65 developed ALF. The risk factors identified for model development included largest tumor size (LTS), platelet counts, prolonged prothrombin time, and elevated serum α-fetoprotein levels. The nomogram exhibited high accuracy in predicting ALF risk with a C-index of 0.91 (0.87-0.95). The Delong test showed a significant difference between the nomogram and the other three models (p<0.05). The calibration curve for the nomogram fit well, and the decision curve analysis revealed superior net benefit. The optimal cut-off point for the nomogram was determined to be 40, yielding sensitivity, specificity, positive predictive value, and negative predictive value of 83.10%, 87.20%, 65.90% and 94.60%, respectively.

Conclusion

The nomogram we developed provides an optimized tool for predicting ALF in SRHCC patients. Its application can help determine individual patient's risk of ALF, enabling more rational and personalized treatment strategies.

A Comprehensive Systematic Review of the Latest Management Strategies for Hepatorenal Syndrome: A Complicated Syndrome to Tackle

Hepatorenal syndrome (HRS), defined by the extreme manifestation of renal impairment in patients with cirrhosis, is characterized by reduced renal blood flow and glomerular filtration rate. It is diagnosed with reduced kidney function confirming the absence of intrinsic kidney disease, such as hematuria or proteinuria. HRS is potentially reversible with liver transplantation or vasoconstrictor drugs. The condition carries a poor prognosis with high mortality rates, particularly in patients with advanced cirrhosis. The latest management for HRS involves a combination of pharmacological and non-pharmacological interventions, aiming to improve renal function and reduce the risk of mortality. Pharmacological treatments include vasoconstrictors, such as terlipressin and midodrine, and albumin infusion, which have been shown to improve renal function and reduce mortality in HRS patients. Non-pharmacological interventions, including invasive procedures such as transjugular intrahepatic portosystemic shunt (TIPS), plasma exchange, liver transplantation, and renal replacement therapy, may also be considered. Though TIPS has been shown to be effective in improving renal function in HRS patients, liver transplantation remains at the top of the consideration for the treatment of end-stage liver disease and HRS. Recent studies have placed importance on early recognition and prompt intervention in HRS patients, as delaying treatment can result in poorer outcomes. Although there are numerous reviews that summarize various aspects of HRS, the recent advancements in the management and pathophysiology of HRS are still insufficient. Therefore, in this review, we summarized a brief pathophysiology and highlighted recent advancements in the management of HRS with a quick review of the latest articles.

SARS-CoV-2 induced liver injury: Incidence, risk factors, impact on COVID-19 severity and prognosis in different population groups

Liver is unlikely the key organ driving mortality in coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) however, liver function tests (LFTs) abnormalities are widely observed mostly in moderate and severe cases. According to this review, the overall prevalence of abnormal LFTs in COVID-19 patients ranges from 2.5% to 96.8% worldwide. The geographical variability in the prevalence of underlying diseases is the determinant for the observed discrepancies between East and West. Multifactorial mechanisms are implicated in COVID-19-induced liver injury. Among them, hypercytokinemia with "bystander hepatitis", cytokine storm syndrome with subsequent oxidative stress and endotheliopathy, hypercoagulable state and immuno-thromboinflammation are the most determinant mechanisms leading to tissue injury. Liver hypoxia may also contribute under specific conditions, while direct hepatocyte injury is an emerging mechanism. Except for initially observed severe acute respiratory distress syndrome corona virus-2 (SARS-CoV-2) tropism for cholangiocytes, more recent cumulative data show SARS-CoV-2 virions within hepatocytes and sinusoidal endothelial cells using electron microscopy (EM). The best evidence for hepatocellular invasion by the virus is the identification of replicating SARS-CoV-2 RNA, S protein RNA and viral nucleocapsid protein within hepatocytes using in-situ hybridization and immunostaining with observed intrahepatic presence of SARS-CoV-2 by EM and by in-situ hybridization. New data mostly derived from imaging findings indicate possible long-term sequelae for the liver months after recovery, suggesting a post-COVID-19 persistent live injury.

Determination of HMGB1 in hepatitis B virus-related acute-on-chronic liver failure patients with acute kidney injury: Early prediction and prognostic implications

Background: Acute kidney injury (AKI) is a frequent complication in patients with hepatitis B virus-related acute-on-chronic liver failure (HBV-ACLF) and is associated with high rates of mortality. We aimed to estimate serum high mobility group protein 1 (HMGB1) levels in hepatitis B virus-related acute-on-chronic liver failure patients and analyze their clinical value in the development and outcomes of Acute kidney injury. Methods: A total of 251 consecutive patients with hepatitis B virus-related acute-on-chronic liver failure were enrolled in this retrospective study. Using the International Club of Ascites staging criteria of Acute kidney injury, 153 patients developed Acute kidney injury. The clinical data of patients were collected and serum levels of high mobility group protein 1 were measured by ELISA. All patients were followed up until death or for a minimum of 3 months. Early prediction and prognostic implications of high mobility group protein 1 in Hepatitis B Virus-Related Acute-on-Chronic Liver Failure Patients with Acute Kidney Injury were investigated in different cohorts, including a propensity score-matched ACLF cohort. Results: Among all individuals with hepatitis B virus-related acute-on-chronic liver failure, the incidence of Acute kidney injury was 61.0% (153/251). The patients who developed stage 2/3 Acute kidney injury showed the highest high mobility group protein 1 levels, followed by those who developed stage 1 Acute kidney injury, and those without Acute kidney injury showed the lowest high mobility group protein 1 levels. Moreover, high mobility group protein 1 levels were significantly higher in non-survivors than in survivors among hepatitis B virus-related acute-on-chronic liver failure patients with Acute kidney injury. Furthermore, analysis of the area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (AUROC) indicated that serum high mobility group protein 1 levels (pre-matching: AUC = 0.740; post-matching: AUC = 0.661) may be a potential predictive factor for Acute kidney injury development and that high mobility group protein 1 (AUC = 0.727) might be a reliable biomarker for prognosis in patients with Acute kidney injury. Conclusion: In patients with hepatitis B virus-related acute-on-chronic liver failure, Acute kidney injury is universal. Acute kidney injury and its stages negatively influence the 90-day transplant-free mortality rate. Serum high mobility group protein 1 levels can serve as a positive predictor of Acute kidney injury development, and high mobility group protein 1 might also be a prognostic biomarker for Acute kidney injury among hepatitis B virus-related acute-on-chronic liver failure patients.

Characteristics and risk factors of infections in patients with HBV-related acute-on-chronic liver failure: a retrospective study

Background

Acute-on-chronic liver failure (ACLF) is a syndrome characterized by acute decompensation, organ failures, and high short-term mortality whose main cause in China is the Hepatitis B virus (HBV). Moreover, one of the most important causes of morbidity and mortality in HBV-ACLF patients is bacterial infection. Therefore, we investigate the clinical features, risk factors, prophylaxis and management of infections in patients with HBV-ACLF.

Methods

We conducted a retrospective analysis of 539 patients with HBV-ACLF in Wuhan Tongji Hospital from October 2015 to May 2018. Differences among groups were compared with Student's t test, Mann-Whitney U test, χ² test, or Fisher exact test as appropriate. Univariate and Multivariate logistic regression analysis was used for modeling the relationship between infection and clinical characteristics of HBV-ACLF.

Results

In total 58.81% (317/539) of patients with HBV-ACLF became complicated with infections, and the most common types were spontaneous bacterial peritonitis, urinary tract infection and pulmonary infection. Additionally, 32.18% (102/317) of patients suffered multi-organ infections, and 95.73% (516/539) of patients received anti-infective therapy. We detected a total of 202 isolates in all infected patients, and Escherichia coli (36.14%, 73/202) was the most common causative organism. Moreover, antibiotic susceptibility test patterns showed that 52.97% (107/202) of pathogens were MDR bacteria and 4.95% (10/202) were XDR bacteria. Univariate analysis indicated that patients with infection had a higher proportion of females, taking alcohol, diuretics, hepatic encephalopathy (HE), hepatorenal syndrome (HS), cirrhosis, a long-time in bed and mechanical ventilation, lower prothrombin activity (PTA), alanine aminotransferase (ALT), albumin, total cholesterol (TC), estimated glomerular filtration rate (eGFR), hemoglobin (Hb) and platelet (PLT) and higher age, model for end-stage liver disease (MELD) scores and ACLF grade than patients without infection. Multivariate logistic regression analysis showed that taking alcohol, HE, HS, cirrhosis, albumin and eGFR were risk factors for the development of infection.

Conclusions

Bacterial infections were very common in patients with HBV-ACLF. Taking alcohol, the occurrence of complications (HE, HS and cirrhosis), hypoalbuminemia and poor renal function often predict the higher prevalence of infections in patients with HBV-ACLF. It is important to focus on exploring the early recognition of infection and early intervention of those risk factors in patients with HBV-ACLF.

Transplantation for EASL-CLIF and APASL acute-on-chronic liver failure (ACLF) patients: The TEA cohort to evaluate long-term post-Transplant outcomes

BACKGROUND

The forecast accuracy of the European Association for the Study of the Liver-Chronic Liver Failure (EASL-CLIF) and Asian Pacific Association for the Study of the Liver (APASL) acute-on-chronic liver failure (ACLF) criteria in assessing long-term outcomes after liver transplantation (LT) is still unclear, especially when the staging of the two standards is inconsistent.

METHODS

A retrospective cohort (NCT05036031) including 565 patients from January 2015 to June 2021 was conducted. The 28 and 90 days, 1- and 3-years overall survival (OS) after LT were compared between different grades.

FINDINGS

Total of 162 (28.7%) and 230 (40.7%) patients met the ACLF standards. In the EASL-CLIF criteria, the 3-year OS rates were 83·0%, 80·3%, and 69·8% for ACLF1-3, respectively. In the APASL criteria, the 3-year OS rates were 85·7% for APASL ACLF Research Consortium (AARC)-1, similar to ACLF-1. The 3-year OS rates were 84·5% for AARC-2, which were slightly better than ACLF-2. Regarding AARC-3, the 3-year OS rate was 5·8% higher than ACLF-3. For patients who met neither set of criteria for ACLF, the 3-year OS rates were 89·8%. The multivariate analysis showed that alanine aminotransferase >100 U/L, respiration failure, and cerebral failure were independent risk factors for post-LT death.

INTERPRETATION

This study provides the first large-scale long-term follow-up data in Asia. Both criteria showed favorable distinguishing ability for post-LT survival. Patients with ACLF had a higher post-LT mortality risk, and ACLF-3 and AARC-3 correlated with significantly greater mortality.

FUNDING

National Natural Science Foundation of China and Science and Technology Commission of Shanghai Municipality.

Predictive value of elevated serum D‑dimer for short‑term prognosis in patients with HBV‑related acute‑on‑chronic liver failure

To study the predictive value of elevated serum D-dimer on short-term prognosis in patients with hepatitis B virus-related acute-on-chronic liver failure (HBV-ACLF) and the correlation between serum D-dimer level and the clinical data of these patients, a single center retrospective study was conducted to collect the clinical data and 28 and 90-day survival rates of 201 patients. Logistic regression analysis and receiver operating characteristic curves were used to determine the factors affecting short-term prognosis. A Kaplan-Meier curve was used to compare the difference in survival rate between the two groups with elevated D-dimer and normal D-dimer levels. Correlation analysis was used to determine the correlation between serum D-dimer level and the clinical data of the patients. The results showed that international normalized ratio (INR) >2.3 and age >53 years were independent risk factors affecting the 28-day survival rate of the patients (P<0.05). INR >2.3, serum total bilirubin >358.2 µmol/l, age >49 years and elevated serum D-dimer (>550 ng/ml) were independent risk factors affecting the 90-day survival rate of the patients (P<0.05). There were significant differences in the 90-day survival rate and the survival time between the patients with elevated D-dimer and normal D-dimer levels (P<0.05). Serum D-dimer level was positively associated with age, combined spontaneous peritonitis, albumin, INR and the model for end-stage liver disease sodium (MELD-Na) scores, and negatively associated with male sex, red blood cell count, and serum sodium and fibrinogen levels. It was concluded that elevated serum D-dimer (>550 ng/ml) is an independent risk factor affecting the 90-day survival rate of patients with HBV-ACLF. The 90-day survival rate and the survival time of patients with HBV-ACLF and elevated D-dimer levels are significantly lower than those with normal D-dimer levels. Overall, serum D-dimer is associated the short-term prognosis of patients with HBV-ACLF, and the detection of serum D-dimer level at admission can help predict the short-term prognosis of patients with HBV-ACLF, especially the 90-day prognosis.

Definition and classification of acute-on-chronic liver diseases

Patients with chronic liver diseases (CLDs) develop acute liver injury and/or acute decompensation under the attack of various precipitants and present with significantly elevated alanine aminotransferase and/or total bilirubin levels, liver failure, or acute decompensation of liver cirrhosis, which is called acute-on-CLD (AoCLD). AoCLD accounts for the majority of patients hospitalized in the Department of Hepatology or Infectious Diseases. AoCLD is complicated by various clinical types, the severity of the disease, and may pose a high risk of death. To date, the definition of AoCLD is still vague, and a consensus concept of the clinical classification is lacking. This review aimed to define the concept and clinical types of AoCLD based on related studies and the literature.

Hepatorenal Syndrome: Definitions, Diagnosis, and Management

Hepatorenal syndrome (HRS) is a hemodynamically driven process mediated by renal dysregulation and inflammatory response. Albumin, antibiotics, and β-blockers are among therapies that have been studied in HRS prevention. There are no Food and Drug Administration-approved treatments for HRS although multiple liver societies have recommended terlipressin as first-line pharmacotherapy. Renal replacement therapy is the primary modality used to bridge to definitive therapy with orthotopic liver transplant or simultaneous liver-kidney transplant. Advances in our understanding of HRS pathophysiology and emerging therapeutic modalities are needed to change outcomes for this vulnerable population.

Acute hepatitis E virus superinfection increases mortality in patients with cirrhosis

Background

Although acute hepatitis E is not fatal in healthy individuals, it is unclear whether hepatitis E superinfection increases the mortality in patients with pre-existing liver disease. Thus, we investigated the prognosis of patients with acute hepatitis E according to their cirrhosis diagnosis, and the prognosis according to the development of acute-on-chronic liver failure (ACLF) in patients with cirrhosis and chronic liver disease (CLD).

Methods

This study included 74 consecutive patients who were diagnosed with acute viral hepatitis E between January 2007 and December 2019. Of them, 39 patients without CLD, 13 patients with non-cirrhotic CLD, and 22 patients with cirrhotic CLD were analyzed.

Results

Among the 74 patients with HEV infection, 7 (9.5%) died within 180 days: 5 with underlying cirrhosis (71.4%) and 2 without cirrhosis (28.6%). The 180-day mortality was significant higher for patients with cirrhosis than for patients without cirrhosis (22.7% vs. 3.8%, P = 0.013). The age- and sex-adjusted proportional-hazard model revealed an approximately eightfold increase in the 180-day mortality risk in patients with cirrhosis compared to patients without cirrhosis. In addition, development of hepatitis E virus-related ACLF due to acute liver function deterioration in patients with pre-existing CLD or cirrhosis worsened the 180-day mortality rate.

Conclusions

Our findings suggest that the acute hepatitis E mortality rate was low in healthy individuals but higher in patients with cirrhosis, and especially high in those with ACLF.

Supplementary Information

The online version contains supplementary material available at 10.1186/s12879-022-07050-w.

Development and Validation of a Nomogram for 90-day Outcome in Patients with Hepatitis B Virus-related Acute-on-chronic Liver Failure

Background and Aims

It is challenging to predict the 90-day outcomes of patients infected with hepatitis B virus-related acute-on-chronic liver failure (HBV-ACLF) via prevailing predictive models. This study aimed to develop an innovative model to enhance the analytical efficacy of 90-day mortality in HBV-ACLF.

Methods

In this study, 149 HBV-ACLF patients were evaluated by constructing a death risk prediction nomogram. Bootstrap resampling and an independent validation cohort comprising 31 patients from June 2019 to February 2020 were assessed for model confirmation.

Results

The nomogram was constructed by entering and identifying five factors (age, total bilirubin, prothrombin activity (PTA), lymphocyte (L)%, and monocyte (M)%. Healthy refinement was achieved from the nomogram analysis, where the area under the receiver operating characteristic curve was 0.864 for the training cohort and 0.874 was achieved for the validation cohort. There was admirable concordance between the predicted and true results in the equilibrium curve. The decision curve assessment revealed the useful clinical application of the nomogram.

Conclusions

We constructed an innovative nomogram and validated it for the prediction of 90-day HBV-ACLF patient outcomes. This model might help develop optimized treatment protocol recommendations for HBV-ACLF patients.

Novel Prognostic Models for Predicting the 180-day Outcome for Patients with Hepatitis-B Virus-related Acute-on-chronic Liver Failure

BACKGROUND AND AIMS

It remains difficult to forecast the 180-day prognosis of patients with hepatitis B virus-acute-on-chronic liver failure (HBV-ACLF) using existing prognostic models. The present study aimed to derive novel-innovative models to enhance the predictive effectiveness of the 180-day mortality in HBV-ACLF.

METHODS

The present cohort study examined 171 HBV-ACLF patients (non-survivors, n=62; survivors, n=109). The 27 retrospectively collected parameters included the basic demographic characteristics, clinical comorbidities, and laboratory values. Backward stepwise logistic regression (LR) and the classification and regression tree (CART) analysis were used to derive two predictive models. Meanwhile, a nomogram was created based on the LR analysis. The accuracy of the LR and CART model was detected through the area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (AUROC), compared with model of end-stage liver disease (MELD) scores.

RESULTS

Among 171 HBV-ACLF patients, the mean age was 45.17 years-old, and 11.7% of the patients were female. The LR model was constructed with six independent factors, which included age, total bilirubin, prothrombin activity, lymphocytes, monocytes and hepatic encephalopathy. The following seven variables were the prognostic factors for HBV-ACLF in the CART model: age, total bilirubin, prothrombin time, lymphocytes, neutrophils, monocytes, and blood urea nitrogen. The AUROC for the CART model (0.878) was similar to that for the LR model (0.878, p=0.898), and this exceeded that for the MELD scores (0.728, p<0.0001).

CONCLUSIONS

The LR and CART model are both superior to the MELD scores in predicting the 180-day mortality of patients with HBV-ACLF. Both the LR and CART model can be used as medical decision-making tools by clinicians.

The dynamic of platelet count as a novel and valuable predictor for 90-day survival of hepatitis B virus-related acute-on-chronic liver failure patients

BACKGROUND

The prognosis of hepatitis B virus-related acute-on-chronic liver failure (HBV-ACLF) is extremely poor due to multiple organ dysfunction.

OBJECTIVES

To investigate the prognostic risk factors and create a 90-day prognostic predictive model for the patients with HBV-ACLF.

METHODS

Demographic information, clinical examination, and laboratory test results of the enrolled patients were collected to study the prognostic risk factors. Univariate and multivariate analysis and stepwise Logistic regression were performed to develop the predictive model. External validation was performed to verify the model.

RESULTS

A total of 333 HBV-ACLF patients and 86 HBV-non-ACLF patients were included in this study. Age, alpha-fetoprotein (AFP), total bilirubin (TBIL), platelet (PLT), and international normalized ratio (INR) were found to be independent risk factors for poor outcomes of HBV-ACLF patients. The formula identified for the linear predictor (LP) of the prognosis of HBV-ACLF patients is thus: LP_ACLF=-5.04-0.056×age-0.002×AFP-0.010×PLT+0.002×TBIL+0.877×INR. The area under curve (AUC) of the receiver operating characteristic curve (ROC) was 0.7835 (95% CI 0.7248-0.8423).

CONCLUSIONS

A predictive model with good calibration and discrimination for 90-day survival of HBV-ACLF patients, including 5 variables, namely age, AFP, PLT, TBIL, and INR was established. Platelet count was a sensitive and dynamic variable for the prognosis of HBV-ACLF.

Expanding Indications of Liver Transplantation in Spain: Consensus Statement and Recommendations by the Spanish Society of Liver Transplantation

BACKGROUND

The number of patients awaiting liver transplantation (LT) in Spain has halved from 2015 to 2019 due to the reduction of candidates with hepatitis C and the successful implementation of nonheart beating donation programs across the country. The Spanish Society for Liver Transplantation has committed to take advantage of this situation by developing consensus around potential areas to expand the current indications for LT. The consensus group was composed of 6 coordinators and 23 expert delegates, each one representing an LT institution in Spain.

METHODS

A modified Delphi approach was used to identify areas to expand indications for LT and to build consensus around paramount aspects, such as inclusion criteria and waitlist prioritization within each area. The scientific evidence and strength of recommendations were assessed by the "Grading of Recommendations Assessment, Development, and Evaluation" system.

RESULTS

The consensus process resulted in the identification of 7 potential areas to expand criteria in LT: recipient's age, hepatocellular carcinoma, alcoholic hepatitis, acute-on-chronic liver failure, hilar and intrahepatic cholangiocarcinoma, and unresectable liver metastases of colorectal cancer.

CONCLUSIONS

We present the main recommendations issued for each topic, together with their core supporting evidence. These recommendations may allow for expanding criteria for LT homogenously in Spain and may provide a guidance to other countries/institutions facing a similar scenario.

Development and Validation of a Novel Risk Prediction Model Using Recursive Feature Elimination Algorithm for Acute-on-Chronic Liver Failure in Chronic Hepatitis B Patients With Severe Acute Exacerbation

Background: Patients with chronic hepatitis B (CHB) with severe acute exacerbation (SAE) are at a progression stage of acute-on-chronic liver failure (ACLF) but uniform models for predicting ACLF occurrence are lacking. We aimed to present a risk prediction model to early identify the patients at a high risk of ACLF and predict the survival of the patient. Methods: We selected the best variable combination using a novel recursive feature elimination algorithm to develop and validate a classification regression model and also an online application on a cloud server from the training cohort with a total of 342 patients with CHB with SAE and two external cohorts with a sample size of 96 and 65 patients, respectively. Findings: An excellent prediction model called the PATA model including four predictors, prothrombin time (PT), age, total bilirubin (Tbil), and alanine aminotransferase (ALT) could achieve an area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (AUC) of 0.959 (95% CI 0.941-0.977) in the development set, and AUC of 0.932 (95% CI 0.876-0.987) and 0.905 (95% CI 0.826-0.984) in the two external validation cohorts, respectively. The calibration curve for risk prediction probability of ACLF showed optimal agreement between prediction by PATA model and actual observation. After predictive stratification into different risk groups, the C-index of predictive 90-days mortality was 0.720 (0.675-0.765) for the PATA model, 0.549 (0.506-0.592) for the end-stage liver disease score model, and 0.648 (0.581-0.715) for Child-Turcotte-Pugh scoring system. Interpretation: The highlypredictive risk model and easy-to-use online application can accurately predict the risk of ACLF with a poor prognosis. They may facilitate risk communication and guidetherapeutic options.

Systematic review with meta-analysis: liver transplant provides survival benefit in patients with acute on chronic liver failure

BACKGROUND

Data on liver transplantation (LT) in acute on chronic liver failure (ACLF) are scanty.

AIM

To perform meta-analysis on outcomes after LT for ACLF compared with ACLF patients not receiving LT or with LT recipients for indications other than ACLF.

METHODS

We pooled data from 12 studies on LT outcomes among ACLF patients.

RESULTS

Among nine studies, 22 238 LT recipients for ACLF vs 30 791 for non-ACLF were younger by 1.1 years, less males (64% vs 66.4%), and higher model for end-stage disease score by 14.5 (14.4-14.6), P < 0.01 for all. Post-transplant patient survival at 30 day, 90 day, 6 months, 1 year and 5 years was lower in ACLF: 96.2% vs 98.1%, 92.6% vs 96.2%, 89.9% vs 94.4%, 86.0% vs 91.9%, 66.9% vs 80.7% respectively, P < 0.01 for all. ACLF patients stayed longer in hospital and ICU by 5.7 and 10.5 days respectively, P < 0.001, with similar post-transplant complications [74.4% vs 55.5%, P = 0.12]. Among three studies, 441 LT recipients for ACLF vs 301 ACLF patients not selected for LT had better 30 day and 1 year survival: 95.2% vs 60% and 85.3% vs 28.2% respectively, P < 0.001. Outcomes were worse in ACLF-3 and better for ACLF-1 and ACLF-2 patients at the time of LT.

CONCLUSION

In this pooled analysis with a large sample size across the globe, LT for select patients with ACLF provided survival benefit. However, larger prospective studies are needed to further refine selection criteria, especially for ACLF-3 patients as basis for improving outcomes and optimal utilisation of scarce donor pool.