Advanced liver disease outcomes after hepatitis C eradication by human immunodeficiency virus infection in PITER cohort

Screening strategy to advance HCV elimination in Italy: a cost-consequence analysis

BACKGROUND AND AIMS

Italy has the greatest burden of hepatitis C virus (HCV) infection in Western Europe. The screening strategy represents a crucial prevention tool to achieve HCV elimination in Italy. We evaluated the cost-consequences of different screening strategies for the diagnosis of HCV active infection in the birth cohort 1948-1968 to achieve the HCV elimination goal.

METHODS

We designed a probabilistic model to estimate the clinical, and economic outcomes of different screening coverage uptakes, considering the direct costs of HCV management according to each liver fibrosis stage, in the Italian context. A decision probabilistic tree simulates 4 years of HCV testing of the 1948-1968 general population birth cohort, (15,485,565 individuals to be tested) considering different coverage rates. A No-screening scenario was compared with two alternative screening scenarios that represented different coverage rates each year: (1) Incremental approach (coverage rates equal to 5%, 10%, 30%, and 50% at years 1, 2, 3, and 4, respectively) and (2) Fast approach (50% coverage rate at years 1, 2, 3 and 4). Overall 106,200 cases were previously estimated to have an HCV active infection. A liver disease progression Markov model was considered for an additional 6 years (horizon-time 10 years).

RESULTS

The highest increased number of deaths and clinical events are reported for the No-screening scenario (21,719 cumulative deaths at the end of ten years; 10,148 cases with HCC and/or 7618 cases with Decompensated Cirrhosis). Following the Fast-screening scenario, the reductions in clinical outcomes and deaths were higher compared with No-screening and Incremental-screening. At ten years time horizon, less than 5696 liver deaths (PSA CI95%: - 3873 to 7519), 3,549 HCC (PSA CI95%: - 2413 to 4684) and less than 3005 liver decompensations (PSA CI 95%: - 2104 to 3907) were estimated compared with the Incremental-scenario. The overall costs of the Fast-screening, including the costs of the DAA and liver disease management of the infected patients for 10 years, are estimated to be € 43,107,543 more than no-investment in screening and € 62,289,549 less compared with the overall costs estimated by the Incremental-scenario.

CONCLUSION

It is necessary to guarantee dedicated funds and efficiency of the system for the cost-efficacious screening of the 1948-1968 birth cohort in Italy. A delay in HCV diagnosis and treatment in the general population, yet not addressed for the HCV free-of-charge screening, will have important clinical and economic consequences in Italy.

Is HCV elimination among persons living with HIV feasible? Data from the NoCo study in the setting of the ICONA cohort

BACKGROUND AND AIMS

Whether the HCV test-and-treat strategy impacted on the rate of new HCV infections among PLWH in Italy is unknown.

METHODS

Prospective study of PLWH in the ICONA network. At baseline, PLWH were tested for HCV-Ab; HCV-RNA (if HCV-Ab positive) and, if positive, treated with DAA. SVR12 indicated eradication. Seroconversions and re-infections were evaluated yearly in HCV-Ab neg and HCV-RNA neg at first screening. We estimated the following: HCV seroconversions, incidence of HCV reinfections, and access to DAA and SVR12 rates tighter with factors associated with each outcome. Data were analysed by Cox regression, Poisson regression and logistic regression models.

RESULTS

Sixteen thousand seven hundred and forty-three PLWH were included; 27.3% HCV-Ab positive; of these, 39.3% HCV-RNA positive. HCV seroconversion incidence: .48/100 PYFU (95% CI: .36-.65); re-infections incidence: 1.40/100 PYFU (95% CI: .91-2.04). The risk factor for HCV re-infection was young age: aIRR 1.85, 95% CI: 1.17-2.95) per 10 years younger. 86.4% of HCV viremic in follow-up started DAA. PWID vs. heterosexuals (aHR .75, 95% CI .62-.90), HIV-RNA >50 copies/mL (aHR .70, 95% CI .56-.87), HCV genotype other than G1, G2, G3, G4 or with multiple/missing HCV genotype and post-COVID-19 calendar periods were associated with lower DAA access. 922/965 (95.5%) PLWH achieved SVR12. We estimated 72% reduction of chance to achieve SVR12 in PLWH with a CD4 count <200/mm3 (vs. CD4 ≥200/mm3 aOR .18, 95% CI: .07-.46). 95.5% of DAA-treated individuals eradicated HCV, but they represent only 53.2% of HCV viremic PLWH and 66.4% of those in follow-up. HCV-RNA positivity by year decreased from 41.7% in 2017 to 11.7% in 2022.

CONCLUSIONS

The screening-and-treat campaign implemented in Italy, even if only partially effective, resulted in a dramatic drop in HCV circulation in our cohort.

Impact of direct-acting antiviral regimens on hepatic and extrahepatic manifestations of hepatitis C virus infection

Hepatitis C virus (HCV) is a common cause of liver disease and is associated with various extrahepatic manifestations (EHMs). This mini-review outlines the currently available treatments for HCV infection and their prognostic effect on hepatic manifestations and EHMs. Direct-acting antiviral (DAA) regimens are considered pan-genotypic as they achieve a sustained virological response (SVR) > 85% after 12 wk through all the major HCV genotypes, with high percentages of SVR even in advanced fibrosis and cirrhosis. The risk factors for DAA failure include old males, cirrhosis, and the presence of resistance-associated substitutions (RAS) in the region targeted by the received DAAs. The effectiveness of DAA regimens is reduced in HCV genotype 3 with baseline RAS like A30K, Y93H, and P53del. Moreover, the European Association for the Study of the Liver recommended the identification of baseline RAS for HCV genotype 1a. The higher rate of hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) after DAA therapy may be related to the fact that DAA regimens are offered to patients with advanced liver fibrosis and cirrhosis, where interferon was contraindicated to those patients. The change in the growth of pre-existing subclinical, undetectable HCC upon DAA treatment might be also a cause. Furthermore, after DAA therapy, the T cell-dependent immune response is much weaker upon HCV clearance, and the down-regulation of TNF-α or the elevated neutrophil to lymphocyte ratio might increase the risk of HCC. DAAs can result in reactivation of hepatitis B virus (HBV) in HCV co-infected patients. DAAs are effective in treating HCV-associated mixed cryoglobulinemia, with clinical and immunological responses, and have rapid and high effectiveness in thrombocytopenia. DAAs improve insulin resistance in 90% of patients, increase glomerular filtration rate, and decrease proteinuria, hematuria and articular manifestations. HCV clearance by DAAs allows a significant improvement in atherosclerosis and metabolic and immunological conditions, with a reduction of major cardiovascular events. They also improve physical function, fatigue, cognitive impairment, and quality of life. Early therapeutic approach with DAAs is recommended as it cure many of the EHMs that are still in a reversible stage and can prevent others that can develop due to delayed treatment.

Hepatitis C: Problems to extinction and residual hepatic and extrahepatic lesions after sustained virological response

Loss of follow-up or reinfections hinder the expectations of hepatitis C eradication despite the existence of highly effective treatments. Moreover, the elimination of the infection does not imply the reversion of those chronic alterations derived from the previous infection by hepatitis C virus (HCV). This review analyzes the risk factors associated with loss to follow-up in diagnosis or treatment, and the possibility of reinfection. Likewise, it assesses the residual alterations induced by chronic HCV infection considering the liver alterations (inflammation, fibrosis, risk of decompensation, hepatocellular carcinoma, liver transplantation) and, on the other hand, the comorbidities and extrahepatic manifestations (cryoglobulinemia, non-Hodgkin lymphoma, peripheral insulin resistance, and lipid, bone and cognitive alterations). Peculiarities present in subjects coinfected with human immunodeficiency virus are analyzed in each section.

Diabetes Mellitus Increases the Risk of Hepatocellular Carcinoma After Direct-Acting Antiviral Therapy: Systematic Review and Meta-Analysis

Background: Hepatitis C virus (HCV)-infected patients treated with direct-acting antivirals (DAAs) are still at risk of developing hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) after sustained virologic response (SVR). This study aimed to investigate the role of diabetes mellitus (DM) as a potential predictive risk factor in developing de novo HCC in HCV-infected patients after DAA treatment. Methods: This study was registered on PROSPERO under registration number CRD42021230457. We performed a systematic search in four medical databases from inception through November 3rd, 2020. Studies were eligible if they reported on HCV-infected patients treated with DAAs and compared the frequency of de novo HCC in patients with and without DM. We calculated pooled odds ratios, unadjusted (UHR), and adjusted hazard ratios (AHR) with 95% confidence intervals (CIs) in meta-analysis. Results: We included 30 articles in our systematic review and meta-analysis. DM proved to be a significant risk factor of HCC in DAA-treated HCV patients in unadjusted (UHR = 1.44, CI: 1.15-1.79) and adjusted analyses (AHR = 1.31, CI: 1.06-1.62). In the group of patients achieving SVR after DAA therapy, DM increased the risk of HCC in unadjusted (UHR = 1.3, CI: 1.09-1.51) analysis; however, in adjusted results, the risk was non-significant (AHR = 1.07, CI: 0.89-1.28). In patients with advanced liver fibrosis, DM was a risk factor for HCC in adjusted (AHR = 1.36, CI: 1.03-1.8), but not in unadjusted analysis (UHR = 1.11, CI: 0.8-1.42). Conclusions: DM is an independent risk factor of de novo HCC after DAA treatment in HCV-infected patients. Systematic Review Registration: https://www.crd.york.ac.uk/prospero/display_record.php?RecordID=230457, identifier: CRD42021230457.

Patients with HIV and cirrhosis: the risk for hepatocellular carcinoma after direct-acting antivirals for hepatitis C virus

OBJECTIVES

Hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) has become a major issue in coinfected HIV/HCV patients with liver cirrhosis. We aimed to determine the rate of HCC occurrence after a direct-acting antiviral (DAA) treatment and to evaluate the factors associated with the risk of HCC in this population.

DESIGN

We conducted a retrospective multicenter observational study including cirrhotic HIV/HCV-coinfected patients treated with DAAs, between October 2014 and January 2017.

METHODS

We collected demographics characteristics, data regarding HIV and HCV infections and treatment with DAAs. We investigated the rate and the time of occurrence of HCC. Statistical analysis explored the factors associated to development of liver cancer.

RESULTS

During a median follow-up of 55 months, 24 out of 232 patients developed HCC, after a median of 22.5 months from starting DAAs. Factors associated with HCC were a higher Child--Pugh Turcotte (CPT) score (P = 0.002), HCV genotype 3 (P = 0.04), previous HCC (P < 0.001) and CD4+ cell count nadir greater than 350 cells/μl (P = 0.001), whereas antiretroviral therapy (ART) was associated to a lower rate of cancer (P = 0.02). At multivariable analysis CPT score and a history of HCC remained independently associated with HCC after DAAs (P = 0.003 and P < 0.001, respectively), and ART administration maintained its protective role (P = 0.047), regardless of HIV RNA at baseline.

CONCLUSION

Our study highlights the importance of a long-lasting follow-up for HCC after HCV eradication, mostly in those patients with advanced cirrhosis and history of HCC. Furthermore, our data showed a potential role of ART itself (and not of undetectable HIV RNA) in reducing the risk for HCC development.

Liver function following hepatitis C virus eradication by direct acting antivirals in patients with liver cirrhosis: data from the PITER cohort

BACKGROUND

The development of direct-acting antivirals (DAA) for HCV has revolutionized the treatment of HCV, including its treatment in patients with HIV coinfection. The aim of this study was to compare the changes in liver function between coinfected and monoinfected patients with cirrhosis who achieved HCV eradication by DAA.

METHODS

Patients with pre-treatment diagnosis of HCV liver cirrhosis, consecutively enrolled in the multicenter PITER cohort, who achieved a sustained virological response 12 weeks after treatment cessation (SVR12) were analysed. Changes in Child-Pugh (C-P) class and the occurrence of a decompensating event was prospectively evaluated after the end of DAA treatment. Cox regression analysis was used to evaluate factors independently associated with changes in liver function following viral eradication.

RESULTS

We evaluated 1350 patients, of whom 1242 HCV monoinfected (median follow-up 24.7, range 6.8-47.5 months after viral eradication) and 108 (8%) HCV/HIV coinfected (median follow-up 27.1, range 6.0-44.6). After adjusting for age, sex, HCV-genotype, HBsAg positivity and alcohol use, HIV was independently associated with a more advanced liver disease before treatment (C-P class B/C vs A) (OR: 3.73, 95% CI:2.00-6.98). Following HCV eradication, C-P class improved in 17/20 (85%) coinfected patients (from B to A and from C to B) and in 53/82 (64.6%) monoinfected patients (from B to A) (p = 0.08). C-P class worsened in 3/56 coinfected (5.3%) (from A to B) and in 84/1024 (8.2%) monoinfected patients (p = 0.45) (from A to B or C and from B to C). Baseline factors independently associated with C-P class worsening were male sex (HR = 2.00; 95% CI = 1.18-3.36), platelet count < 100,000/μl (HR = 1.75; 95% CI 1.08-2.85) and increased INR (HR = 2.41; 95% CI 1.51-3.84). Following viral eradication, in 7 of 15 coinfected (46.6%) and in 61 of 133 (45.8%) monoinfected patients with previous history of decompensation, a new decompensating event occurred. A first decompensating event was recorded in 4 of 93 (4.3%) coinfected and in 53 of 1109 (4.8%) monoinfected patients (p = 0.83).

CONCLUSIONS

Improvement of liver function was observed following HCV eradication in the majority of patients with cirrhosis; however viral eradication did not always mean cure of liver disease in both monoinfected and coinfected patients with advanced liver disease.

Estimated prevalence of undiagnosed HCV infected individuals in Italy: A mathematical model by route of transmission and fibrosis progression

BACKGROUND

The universal treatment of diagnosed patients with chronic HCV infection has been widely conducted in Italy since 2017. However, the pool of individuals diagnosed but yet to be treated in Italy has been estimated to end around 2025, leaving a significant proportion of infected individuals undiagnosed/without care. Estimates of this population are currently unknown.

METHODS

A probabilistic modelling approach was applied to estimate annual historical HCV incident cases by their age-group (0-100 years) distribution from available literature and Italian National database (1952 to October 2019). Viraemic infection rates were modelled on the main infection routes in Italy: people who inject drugs (PWID), tattoos, sexual transmission, glass syringe use, blood transfusion and vertical transmission. Annual liver fibrosis stage transition probabilities were modelled using a Markov model. The number of HCV viraemic asymptomatic (fibrosis stage F0-F3:potentially undiagnosed/unlinked to care) and symptomatic (fibrosis stage F4: potentially linked to care) individuals was estimated.

RESULTS

By October 2019, total viraemic HCV individuals in Italy (excluding treated patients since 1992) were estimated to be 410,775 (0.68 % of current population of Italy; 95 % CI: 0.64-0.71%, based on the current Italian population), of which 281,809 (0.47 %; 95 % CI:0.35-0.60%) were fibrosis stage F0-F3. Among different high risk groups in stage F0-F3, the following distribution was estimated: PWID; 52.0 % (95 % CI:37.9-66.6 %), tattoo; 28.8 % (95 % CI:23-32.3 %), sexual transmission; 12.0 % (95 % CI:9.6-13.7 %), glass syringe and transfusion; 6.4 % (95 % CI:2.4-17.8 %), and vertical transmission; 0.7 % (95 % CI:0.4-1.2 %).

CONCLUSION

Under the assumption that most untreated HCV-infected individuals with stage F0-F3 are undiagnosed, more than 280,000 individuals are undiagnosed and/or unlinked to care in Italy. Marked heterogeneity across the major routes of HCV transmission was estimated. This modelling approach may be a useful tool to characterise the HCV epidemic profile also in other countries, based on country specific epidemiology and HCV main transmission routes.