Aggressive intrahepatic therapies for synchronous hepatocellular carcinoma with pulmonary metastasis

Prognostic factors in patients with first diagnosis of hepatocellular carcinoma presenting with pulmonary metastasis and construction of a clinical prediction model

In some areas where routine screening for hepatocellular carcinoma is not available, 30% of HCC patients present with extra-hepatic metastases at the first visit. The most common metastatic organ among them is the lung. The factors influencing the prognosis of this particular subgroup are questions that deserve to be explored. We screened the patients using the SEER database. After exclusion, 989 patients with first diagnosis of hepatocellular carcinoma with lung metastasis were included in this study. Based on Cox regression, the random forest and stepwise methods were applied to screen out risk factors that independently affect the overall survival or disease-specific survival of HCCPM patients and construct prognostic models, respectively. The data were set as training and validation sets, and the reliability and accuracy of the models were verified in different data sets using time-dependent ROC curves with decision curves. We found that the clinical factors affecting the overall survival of HCCPM patients were age grouping, chemotherapy, AJCC T-stage, pathologic grading, and surgery. The clinical factors affecting disease-specific survival in patients with hepatocellular carcinoma pulmonary metastases were age grouping, marital status, AJCC T-stage, pathological grading, and surgery. For the OS model for the training cohort, the 6-month AUC = 0.695, 12-month AUC = 0.692, and 18-month AUC = 0.72. While the DSS model for the training cohort resulted in a 6-month AUC = 0.671, 12-month AUC = 0.671, and 18-month AUC = 0.635. In this study, we developed and validated a model of prognostic risk factors for patients with lung metastases from hepatocellular carcinoma. Our prognostic model can prospectively predict the prognostic status of patients and improve clinical efficiency.

Nomogram for Predicting Postoperative Pulmonary Metastasis in Hepatocellular Carcinoma Based on Inflammatory Markers

BACKGROUND

Uncertainty surrounds the usefulness of inflammatory markers in hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) patients for predicting postoperative pulmonary metastasis (PM). The purpose of this study was to assess the predictive value of inflammatory markers as well as to create a new nomogram model for predicting PM.

METHODS

Cox regression was utilized to identify independent prognostic variables and to create a nomogram that predicted PM for comparison with a validation cohort and other prediction systems. We retrospectively analyzed a total of 1109 cases with HCC were included.

RESULTS

The systemic inflammatory response index (SIRI) and aspartate aminotransferase-to-platelet ratio index (APRI) were independent risk factors for PM, with a concordance index of .78 (95% CI: .74-.81) for the nomogram. The areas under the curve of the nomograms for PM predicted at 1-, 3-, and 5-year were .82 (95% CI: .77-.87), .82 (95% CI: .78-.87) and .81 (95% CI: .75-.86), respectively, which were better than those of Barcelona Clinic Liver Cancer and China liver cancer stage. Decision curve analyses demonstrated a broader range of nomogram threshold probabilities.

CONCLUSION

A nomogram based on SIRI and APRI can accurately predict postoperative PM in HCC.

Radiofrequency ablation for pediatric recurrent hepatocellular carcinoma: a single-center experience

PURPOSE

To summarize our single-center experience with percutaneous ultrasound (US)-guided radiofrequency ablation (RFA) for pediatric recurrent hepatocellular carcinoma (RHCC).

METHODS

From September 2007 to September 2021, patients under 18 who underwent percutaneous US-guided RFA for RHCC were retrospectively enrolled in this study. Local effectiveness, complications, local tumor progression (LTP), progression free survival (PFS), and overall survival (OS) were evaluated.

RESULTS

A total of 10 patients (9 male and 1 female; mean age, 11.7 ± 4 years ; age range, 6-17 years) with 15 intrahepatic RHCC lesions were enrolled in this study. Complete ablation (CA) was achieved in 14 out of 15 lesions (93.3%) after the first RFA. During the follow-up (mean, 63.1 ± 18 months; range, 5.3-123.3 months), LTP did not occur. Five patients died including three with tumor progression and one with liver failure. The accumulative one- and three-year PFS rates were 30% and 10%, respectively. The accumulative one- and three-year OS rates were 77.8% and 44.4%, respectively.

CONCLUSIONS

Our single-center experience suggests the safety and feasibility of percutaneous US-guided RFA for pediatric RHCC.

Short-term prognosis for hepatocellular carcinoma patients with lung metastasis: A retrospective cohort study based on the SEER database

Our study aimed to develop a prediction model to predict the short-term mortality of hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) patients with lung metastasis. The retrospective data of HCC patients with lung metastasis was from the Surveillance, Epidemiology, and End Results registration database between 2010 and 2015. 1905 patients were randomly divided into training set (n = 1333) and validation set (n = 572). There were 1092 patients extracted from the Surveillance, Epidemiology, and End Results database 2015 to 2019 as the validation set. The variable importance was calculated to screen predictors. The constructed prediction models of logistic regression, random forest, broad learning system, deep neural network, support vector machine, and naïve Bayes were compared through the predictive performance. The mortality of HCC patients with lung metastasis was 51.65% within 1 month. The screened prognostic factors (age, N stage, T stage, tumor size, surgery, grade, radiation, and chemotherapy) and gender were used to construct prediction models. The area under curve (0.853 vs. 0.771) of random forest model was more optimized than that of logistic regression model in the training set. But, there were no significant differences in testing and validation sets between random forest and logistic regression models. The value of area under curve in the logistic regression model was significantly higher than that of the broad learning system model (0.763 vs. 0.745), support vector machine model (0.763 vs. 0.689) in the validation set, and higher than that of the naïve Bayes model (0.775 vs. 0.744) in the testing model. We further chose the logistic regression prediction model and built the prognostic nomogram. We have developed a prediction model for predicting short-term mortality with 9 easily acquired predictors of HCC patients with lung metastasis, which performed well in the internal and external validation. It could assist clinicians to adjust treatment strategies in time to improve the prognosis.

Clinical outcomes of percutaneous thermal ablation for pulmonary metastases from hepatocellular carcinoma: a retrospective study

Purpose: To determine the effectiveness of ablation for pulmonary metastases (PM) from hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC).Methods: Between 2010 and 2017, the study analyzed 39 patients who had a median age of 59 years. Primary HCC was under control and the number of PM was less than 5 (median: 2), with a maximum diameter of ≤60 mm (median: 15 mm). The primary endpoints were overall survival (OS) and local tumor progression-free survival (LTPFS). Secondary endpoints included technique success (TS), complication and tumor response. TS referred to PM treated using the treatment protocol. Multivariate analysis using the Cox proportional hazard model was conducted on the potential risk factors (univariate: p < 0.5) to determine the independent factors (multivariate: p < 0.05).Results: The TS rate was 100%. Major complications included pneumothorax (n = 3) requiring chest tube placement and pleural effusion requiring drainage (n = 2). Complete ablation was achieved in 32/38 patients (valid percent: 84.2%) at 1 month after ablation. The 1-, 3- and 5-year OS rates were 79.8, 58 and 30.9%, respectively. The 1-, 3- and 5-year LTPFS rates were 60.7, 34.2 and 22.8%, respectively. The extent (unilateral vs. bilateral) of PM (hazard ratio (HR): 0.197, 95% confidence interval (CI): 0.043-0.890, p = 0.035) and the number (≤2 vs. >2) of PM (HR: 0.555, 95% CI: 0.311-0.991, p = 0.047) were found to be the independent risk factors for predicting OS.Conclusion: Percutaneous thermal ablation is a safe and effective treatment for PM from HCC.

Nomogram for Predicting the Prognosis of Patients with Hepatocellular Carcinoma Presenting with Pulmonary Metastasis

Background

Only a few studies have investigated the clinical features and outcomes of patients with pulmonary metastasis from hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) at the initial diagnosis. This study aimed to evaluate the prevalence, risk factors and prognostic factors related to pulmonary metastasis and then construct a nomogram to predict the outcomes of patients with HCC presenting with pulmonary metastasis.

Methods

The Surveillance, Epidemiology, and End Results (SEER) database was used to select patients. A total of 25,236 eligible patients diagnosed with HCC from 2010 to 2015 were selected. Then, 897 patients with HCC presenting with pulmonary metastasis at the initial diagnosis were included in the primary set (n=598) and validation set (n=299). Logistic and Cox regression analyses were used to determine the risk factors and prognostic factors for pulmonary metastasis. A nomogram predicting the prognosis of patients with HCC presenting with pulmonary metastasis was constructed based on independent prognostic factors identified in Cox regression analyses. Both internal and external validations of the nomogram were performed using discrimination and calibration plots.

Results

The prevalence of pulmonary metastasis was 3.6% (897/25,236) in the entire cohort diagnosed with HCC as the initial diagnosis. Age, race, Edmonson-Steiner classification grade I/III, higher T stage, N stage, alpha fetoprotein(AFP) levels, brain metastasis, bone metastasis and intrahepatic metastasis were positively correlated with the development of HCC with pulmonary metastasis at the initial diagnosis. Prognostic factors incorporated in the nomogram were sex, T stage, bone metastasis, AFP levels, treatment, radiation and chemotherapy. The concordance index (C-index) of the nomogram in the primary set was 0.661 (95% CI: 0.633-0.688), indicating considerable predictive accuracy. The calibration curves showed consistency between the nomogram and the actual observations. When the nomogram was applied to the validation set, the results also remained reconcilable, and the C-index of the nomogram was 0.657 (95% CI: 0.626-0.698).

Conclusion

A list of risk factors associated with pulmonary metastasis occurrence in patients with HCC was selected, and the nomogram accurately predicted the prognosis of patients with HCC presenting with pulmonary metastasis at the initial diagnosis.

Efficacy of Local Therapy for Oligometastatic Hepatocellular Carcinoma: A Propensity Score Matched Analysis

Purpose

With respect to various solid cancers, patients with oligometastasis may benefit from local therapy. However, this approach is not widely accepted for hepatocellular carcinoma. This study investigated the efficacy of local therapy for oligometastatic lesions in patients with hepatocellular carcinoma.

Patients and Methods

The study included 69 hepatocellular carcinoma patients presenting with oligometastasis to the lung. Characteristics of the patients and treatment options for metastatic lesions were reviewed, and a survival analysis was performed. After propensity score matching, overall survival and progression-free survival were calculated from the time of pulmonary metastasis detection. Factors predicting prognosis were analyzed using a multivariate Cox regression analysis.

Results

After propensity score matching, 58 patients with Child-Pugh grade A disease were selected. Among them, 22 patients were treated with systemic therapy alone while 36 patients received local therapy or a combination of local and systemic therapies for metastatic lesions. Survival rates were higher in patients receiving local therapy than in those receiving systemic therapy (2-year overall survival rate, 66.6 vs 31.2%, p<0.001; 2-year progression-free survival rate, 47.0 vs 10.6%, p=0.005). In the multivariate Cox regression analysis, alpha-fetoprotein levels less than 400 ng/mL and the use of local therapy for metastatic lesions were found to be significant favorable prognostic factors.

Conclusion

Local therapy for metastatic lesions improved the oncologic outcomes of patients with hepatocellular carcinoma with pulmonary oligometastasis.

Pulmonary metastases in newly diagnosed hepatocellular carcinoma: a population-based retrospective study

BACKGROUND

Hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) is a major form of primary liver cancer with steadily increasing incidence for the decades, and has propensity to have extrahepatic metastases, especially pulmonary metastases (PM). This study aimed to investigate temporal incidence trends, treatment, and survival of patients with HCCPM.

METHODS

Patients with HCCPM were retrospectively reviewed from 2010 to 2016 in US National Cancer Institute (NCI) Surveillance, Epidemiology, and End Results registry (SEER).

RESULTS

2242 patients with HCCPM were identified. Overall HCCPM incidence did not change from 2010 to 2016, with an annual percent change (APC) of 0.87% (95% CI = -2.50%-4.35%, P = 0.542). Similar incidence trends patterns were found in subgroup analyses of sex, age, and race. 1-year observed survival for HCCPM was 10.8% (95%CI = 8.9%-12.8%) and relative survival was 11.0% (95%CI = 9.1%-13.1%). Better outcomes were noted among patients who underwent liver-directed surgery, those who treated with chemotherapy, and those who received radiation.

CONCLUSIONS

The incidence of HCCPM does not increase with the increasing incidence of HCC. Patients with HCCPM have a dismal prognosis with low survival rates. Liver-directed surgery, use of chemotherapy, and radiation may be associated with improved outcomes.

Risk and prognostic nomograms for hepatocellular carcinoma with newly-diagnosed pulmonary metastasis using SEER data

Purpose

This research aimed to identify risk factors of pulmonary metastasis (PM) from hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) and prognostic factors of patients with PM from HCC at initial diagnosis.

Methods

Patients diagnosed with HCC between 2010 and 2015 were reviewed retrospectively in the Surveillance, Epidemiology, and End Results (SEER) database. Patients with PM from HCC at initial diagnosis were identified from the entire cohort. Predictors for PM from HCC were identified by multivariate logistic regression analysis. Independent prognostic factors for patients with PM were determined by univariate and multivariate Cox regression analysis. Nomograms were also constructed for quantifying risk of metastasis and overall survival estimation visually.

Results

Our research included 30,641 patients diagnosed with HCC, of whom 1,732 cases were with PM from HCC at initial diagnosis. The risk factors causing PM from HCC were age (P = 0.001), race (P < 0.001), primary tumor size (P < 0.001), T stage (P < 0.001), N stage (P < 0.001), alpha-fetoprotein (P < 0.001), bone metastasis (P < 0.001), brain metastasis (P < 0.001), and intrahepatic metastasis (P < 0.001). The significantly prognostic factors for overall survival were age (P = 0.014), T stage (P = 0.009), surgical approach (P < 0.001), and chemotherapy (P < 0.001). Harrell’s C-index statistics of two nomograms were 0.768 and 0.687 respectively, indicating satisfactory predictive power.

Conclusions

This research provided evaluation of risk factors and prognosis for patients with PM from HCC. Two nomograms we developed can be convenient individualized tools to facilitate clinical decision-making.

A nomogram predicting the prognosis of young adult patients diagnosed with hepatocellular carcinoma: A population-based analysis

Background

Few studies have reported the clinical characteristics and outcomes of young adult patients diagnosed with hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC). This study aimed to formulate a nomogram to predict the prognosis of young adult HCC patients.

Methods

Young adult patients diagnosed with HCC from 2004 to 2015 were screened from the Surveillance, Epidemiology, and End Results (SEER) database. Based on the multivariate analysis results, a nomogram was constructed. The concordance index (c-index) and calibration were used to assess the predictive performance of the nomogram. The clinical benefit was measured by using decision curve analysis (DCA).

Results

The mean follow-up time of the patients was 25.0±34.0 months. Gender, race, AFP level, Edmondson–Steiner classification, treatment and TNM stage were selected as independent prognostic factors and integrated into the nomogram. The c-indexes of the two sets were 0.786 and 0.775, respectively. The calibration curves showed good agreement between the nomogram-predicted probability and the actual observations. Furthermore, the DCA indicated that the nomogram had positive net benefits compared with the conventional staging system.

Conclusions

The nomogram could accurately predict the prognosis of young adult HCC patients.