Lower air temperature is associated with ambulance transports and death in Takamatsu area, Japan

Prediction Model of Deep Learning for Ambulance Transports in Kesennuma City by Meteorological Data

PURPOSE

With the aging population in Japan, the prediction of ambulance transports is needed to save the limited medical resources. Some meteorological factors were risks of ambulance transports, but it is difficult to predict in a classically statistical way because Japan has 4 seasons. We tried to make prediction models for ambulance transports using the deep learning (DL) framework, Prediction One (Sony Network Communications Inc., Tokyo, Japan), with the meteorological and calendarial variables.

MATERIALS AND METHODS

We retrospectively investigated the daily ambulance transports and meteorological data between 2017 and 2019. First, to confirm their association, we performed classically statistical analysis. Second, to test the DL framework's utility for ambulance transports prediction, we made 3 prediction models for daily ambulance transports (total daily ambulance transports more than 5 or not, cardiopulmonary arrest (CPA), and trauma) using meteorological and calendarial factors and evaluated their accuracies by internal cross-validation.

RESULTS

During the 1095 days of 3 years, the total ambulance transports were 5948, including 240 CPAs and 337 traumas. Cardiogenic CPA accounted for 72.3%, according to the Utstein classification. The relation between ambulance transports and meteorological parameters by polynomial curves were statistically obtained, but their r2s were small. On the other hand, all DL-based prediction models obtained satisfactory accuracies in the internal cross-validation. The areas under the curves obtained from each model were all over 0.947.

CONCLUSION

We could statistically make polynomial curves between the meteorological variables and the number of ambulance transport. We also preliminarily made DL-based prediction models. The DL-based prediction for daily ambulance transports would be used in the future, leading to solving the lack of medical resources in Japan.

Relationship between Air Temperature Parameters and the Number of Deaths Stratified by Cause in Gifu Prefecture, Japan

Objective: It is well known that air temperature is closely related to health outcomes. We investigated the relationship between air temperature parameters and the number of deaths stratified by cause in Gifu prefecture, Japan. Methods: The number of deaths stratified by cause in Gifu prefecture Japan between January 2007 and December 2016 was obtained from the official homepage of Gifu prefecture, Japan. Air temperature parameters (°C), i.e., the mean air temperature, mean of the highest air temperature, mean of the lowest air temperature, the highest air temperature, and the lowest air temperature during the same period in Gifu city were also obtained from the Japan Meteorological Agency official home page. The relationship between air temperature parameters and the number of deaths was evaluated in an ecological study. Results: The number of deaths due to heart disease, cerebrovascular disease, pneumonia, accidents, or renal failure in January (coldest winter season in Japan) was the highest among the months. Simple correlation analysis also demonstrated a significant and negative relationship between air temperature parameters and the number of deaths due to heart disease, cerebrovascular disease, senility, pneumonia, accidents, and renal failure. Conclusion: Lower air temperature may be associated with a higher number of deaths due to diseases in Gifu prefecture, Japan.

Effects of noise on telephone calls to the Madrid Regional Medical Emergency Service (SUMMA 112)

BACKGROUND

Although the effects of noise on population morbidity and mortality have been observed both in the short and long term, the morbidity and mortality indicators used to date have not enabled information on such health effects to be accessed in real time. At an international level, there are relatively few studies, mostly recent, which have considered an alternative indicator, such as the demand for medical attention provided by emergency services, taking into account environmental factors other than noise.

OBJECTIVES

To ascertain the short-term effect of road-traffic noise levels on medical care, broken down by organic, circulatory and respiratory causes, provided by the Madrid Regional Medical Emergency Service (Servicio de Urgencia Médica de Madrid/SUMMA 112).

METHODS

We used an ecological time-series study and fitted Poisson regression models, to analyse the number of daily, cause-specific episodes of care provided in situ by SUMMA 112, via emergency ambulance dispatches, across the period 01/01/2008-31/12/2009. To this end, we considered diurnal (Leqd: 7-23h), nocturnal (Leqn: 23-7h) and daily (Leq24: 24h) noise (in db(A)) as the principal factor, and chemical air pollution (µg/m³) and temperature (°C) as the control variables. We also controlled for trend and seasonalities, the autoregressive nature of the series, and day of the week.

RESULTS

Nocturnal noise exceeded the WHO threshold (55 db(A)) on 100% of nights, despite displaying a downward trend across the study period. For all causes, with the exception of emergency calls due to ischaemic disease, it was nocturnal rather than diurnal noise levels that had a short-term effect (lags 0-1) on SUMMA 112 calls, with this impact being greater for respiratory than for circulatory causes. Hence, for every increase of 1db in Leqn, the relative risks (RRs) were as follows: 1.11 (95% CI 1.09-1.13) for organic causes; 1.14 (95% CI: 1.11-1.18) for respiratory causes; and 1.08 (95% CI: 1.05-1.10) for circulatory causes.

CONCLUSION

SUMMA 112 data give access to real-time information on the health effects associated with increases in noise levels, which cannot be obtained via mortality or hospital-admission data, since these are collected in the longer term. Accordingly, this is something that would be immediately applicable in any future implementation of a syndromic surveillance system focusing on the effects of environmental pollutants on health.

Correlation between suicide and meteorological parameters

OBJECTIVE

The aim of this study was to investigate the link between suicide and meteorological parameters in the 23 wards of Tokyo, Japan.

MATERIALS AND METHODS

Monthly data (from January 2008 to December 2012) of suicide stratified by the type of suicide, i.e. hanging, drowning and jumping, were obtained from the Tokyo Medical Examiner's Office official web site. Monthly meteorological parameters (atmospheric pressure, air temperature, humidity and daylight hours) in the 23 wards of Tokyo were also used for the required period. The effects of meteorological parameters on suicide were explored.

RESULTS

The number of suicides was 110.4±14.7 (80-149) for men and 55.6±9.1 (41-87) for women in the 23 wards of Tokyo, Japan. The mean air temperature was 16.6°C±7.7 °C (4.8-29.6 °C). The number of suicides by drowning for men was significantly and positively correlated with air temperature, and weakly and positively correlated with humidity. In addition, the number of suicides by drowning for men was significantly and negatively correlated with atmospheric pressure.

CONCLUSIONS

The number of suicides by drowning was associated with meteorological parameters, especially in men, in the 23 wards of Tokyo, Japan.

The linkage among ambulance transports, death and climate parameters in Asahikawa City, Japan

OBJECTIVE

The aim of this study was to investigate the linkage among climate parameters, total ambulance transports and the number of deaths in Asahikawa City in northern Japan.

METHODS

Monthly data on total ambulance transports and the number of deaths from January 2004 to December 2011 were obtained from Asahikawa City Fire Department and the Asahikawa City official website. Climate parameters for the required period were also obtained from the Japan Meteorological Agency, Japan. To adjust for the population, we also used monthly population data on Asahikawa City. The linkage among climate parameters, total ambulance transports and the number of deaths was evaluated by ecological analysis.

RESULTS

The mean air temperature in the Asahikawa area was 7.3 ± 10.1 °C. Total ambulance transports (/a hundred thousand people/day) and the number of deaths (/a hundred thousand people/day) were 10.0 ± 0.6 and 2.6 ± 0.3, respectively. Using quadratic curves, total ambulance transports and the number of deaths were weakly correlated with some climate parameters. The number of deaths was weakly and positively correlated with total ambulance transports.

CONCLUSION

A weak linkage among climate parameters, total ambulance transports and the number of deaths was noted in Asahikawa City, Japan. However, these associations were not as high as expected.