Dosimetric Parameters Correlate with Taste Alterations in Head and Neck Radiotherapy

PURPOSE/OBJECTIVE(S)

Dysgeusia is an acute and chronic side effect of head and neck chemoradiation, with persistent taste dysfunction 1-2 years post radiotherapy occurring in 23-50% of patients. Several head and neck clinical trials set oral cavity mean doses between 30 to 40 Gy, however, there are no set guidelines accurately defining the composite structure and anatomic boundaries for the oral cavity or separating the tongue into specific quadrants. In this single institution cross sectional study, we sought to determine the effects of radiation doses to specific regions of the oral cavity and tongue on patient-reported long term dysgeusia. We hypothesize that radiation Dose to specific structures in the oral cavity will correlate with long-term dysgeusia in patients who have received head and neck radiotherapy.

MATERIALS/METHODS

Patients with primary head and neck cancer receiving definitive intensity modulated radiation therapy (RT) completed quality of life assessments that included patient-reported gustatory function, 1 year post RT. Dosimetric data from RT plans were collected for specific regions and organs at risk within the oral cavity. These structures included the anterior, posterior, superior and inferior tongue (OT), pharyngeal constrictors (as a surrogate for the corda-tympani) and the oral cavity. A forward binary logistic regression model was performed using these data points with scoring from the QLQ-H&N43 questionnaire subsection on taste (Q45) to determine the most predictive values for dysgeusia and the OR for moderate/severe alterations in taste.

RESULTS

A total of 78 patients were included in this study, of these patients, 63 had dosimetric data for the pharyngeal constrictors. The Oral Cavity Volume percentage receiving 50Gy (OC V50) and Pharyngeal Constrictors Volume percentage receiving 55Gy (PC V55) were the most predictive constraints for dysgeusia. (0.042, p = 0.011 and 0.041, p = 0.033). Holding all other variables constant in a forward binary logistic regression including 78 patients, the odds of having moderate to severe taste alterations increased by 56% (OR 1.045, 95% CI 1.012-1.079) for a 1% increase in OCV50. When analyzing the 68 patients with available pharyngeal constrictors data, taste alteration increased 20% for every 1% increase in PCV55 (OR 1.042, 95% CI 1.003-1.082). There was no correlation with taste alterations in any of the dose parameters tested (Dmax, mean and V50 up to V70) for superior, inferior, anterior or posterior regions of the tongue.

CONCLUSION

Dosimetric parameters for the oral cavity (OC V50) and pharyngeal constrictors (PC V55) were positively correlated with taste alterations, however, no other specific regions within the oral tongue predicted taste disfunction. Normal tissue complication probability modeling curves to identify OC V50 and PC V55 constraints for dysgeusia are needed.

[Toxoplasmosis in Spain, analysis of hospitalizations during the period 1997-2018.]

OBJECTIVE

Toxoplasmosis is a systemic infectious disease. Infection is acquired by ingestion of Toxoplasma gondii cysts or by vertical transmission mother-to-child during pregnancy (congenital toxoplasmosis). In Spain, the prevalence shows wide variability depending on the region and the study. The incidence in other European countries evidences a decline in recent years. The aim of this study was to characterize the presence and the epidemiological patterns of the disease in the Spanish population with information obtained of hospitalized cases with a diagnosis of toxoplasmosis at discharge.

METHODS

The interactive platform of the Specialized Registry (RAE-MBD) of the Ministry of Health was used to obtain data on hospital discharges with "toxoplasmosis" diagnosis. Frequencies and rates of hospital discharges were calculated according to sex, age groups, region and diagnosis at discharge. Sequence graphs were generated to analysed the temporal evolution of the number of hospitalizations. The trends and slopes of the RHs were analyzed using "joinpoint" regression models, estimating the mean annual percentage change (PCAM) in the RHs and its 95% confidence interval.

RESULTS

There were 13,704 cases with toxoplasmosis diagnosis at discharge, (58%) were men. The highest hospitalization rate (RH) was in the 15-44-year-old men group (5,804 discharges and HT=2.52). During the period studied a decrease in the number of discharges was observed, it was progressive and affected all the autonomous regions, being more pronounced in men (81.9% vs 63.9%).

CONCLUSIONS

The number of hospitalizations in Spain decreased substantially during the studied period (1997-2018), similar to other European studies reported. The decrease was progressive and mainly affected men between 15-44 years.

Evaluating the Impact of the Diabetes Mellitus Strategy for the National Health System: An Interrupted Time Series Analysis

(1) Background: Diabetes mellitus is a significant public health problem. Macrovascular complications (stroke, acute myocardial infarction (AMI) and lower limb amputations (LLAs) represent the leading cause of morbi-mortality in DM. This work aims to evaluate the impact of the approval of the Diabetes Mellitus Strategy of the National Health System (SDM-NHS) on hospitalizations for those macrovascular complications related to DM; (2) Methods: Interrupted time series applying segmented regression models (Negative Binomial) adjusted for seasonality to data from hospital discharge records with a primary or secondary diagnosis of DM (code 250 ICD9MC); (3) Results: Between 2001 and 2015, there have been 7,302,750 hospital discharges with a primary or secondary diagnosis of DM. After the approval of the SDM-NHS, all the indicators showed a downward trend, modifying the previous trend in the indicators of AMI and LLA. The indicators of stroke and AMI also showed an immediate reduction in their rates; (4) Conclusions: After the approval of the SDM-NHS, an improvement has been observed in all the indicators of macrovascular complications of DM evaluated, although it is difficult to establish a causal relationship between the strategy and the effects observed. Interrupted time series is applicable for evaluating the impact of interventions in public health when experimental designs are not possible.

[Surveillance and epidemiology of Herpes Zoster in Spain.]

OBJECTIVE

Herpes Zoster (HZ) results from reactivation of latent varicella-zoster virus infection and is associated with immunosuppression and ageing. HZ is of increasing importance in advanced societies. Vaccination appears as a powerful tool to reduce HZ as well as postherpetic neuralgia, the main zoster complication. This study aims to describe the temporal trend, the age and sex distribution of cases, hospitalisations and deaths by zoster occurred in Spain between 1998 and 2018.

METHODS

The available information for zoster in Spain were used: cases from National Surveillance System (2014-2018), registries from Spanish hospitalisation database (1998-2018) and deaths from the Spanish mortality statistics (1999-2018). Incidence, hospitalization (HR) and mortality (MR) rates per year and period were calculated. Rates by age group and sex as well as percentage and cumulative percentage for cases and hospitalisations by age group, were also calculated.

RESULTS

The global HZ incidence was 351.6/100,000 inhabitants and 625.5/100,000 among population aged 50 and over. The incidence increases with age, especially from the age of 50-54 years (41% increase over the 45-49 age group) and is always higher in women. The global HR was 6.75/100,000 and 15.7/100,000 in persons aged 50 and over; HR increases with age, especially from 60-64 years onwards (50% increase over 54-59 age group) and is always higher in men. The 68.8% of cases and 80.2% of hospitalisations for HZ occurred from the age of 50.

CONCLUSIONS

In Spain HZ is a frequent and severe entity in adults and elderly people requiring public health interventions. The demographic changes and the introduction of vaccination require continued monitoring of HZ behaviour in terms of incidence and severity.

POS0037 DOES IMAGING OF THE SACROILIAC JOINT DIFFER IN PATIENTS PRESENTING WITH UNDIAGNOSED BACK PAIN AND PSORIASIS, ACUTE ANTERIOR UVEITIS, AND COLITIS: AN INCEPTION COHORT STUDY

Background:

Axial spondyloarthritis (axSpA) presents diagnostic challenges incurring a delay of up to a decade and relies considerably on radiographic and MRI evidence of sacroiliitis which has led to the development of classification criteria which also rely on imaging. However, it has been suggested that such criteria may not be appropriate for axSpA patients presenting with other forms of SpA, especially psoriatic, because imaging features may vary in frequency and/or may be atypical. This hypothesis has never been tested in a prospective inception cohort of patients presenting with undiagnosed back pain.

Objectives:

We aimed to compare the spectrum of radiographic and MRI abnormalities in the sacroiliac joint (SIJ) of an inception cohort of patients presenting with undiagnosed back pain and psoriasis, iritis, and colitis.

Methods:

We used data from the prospective multicenter Screening for Axial Spondyloarthritis in Psoriasis, Iritis, and Colitis (SASPIC) Study, which is aimed at early detection of axial SpA in patients referred by the respective specialist after first presenting with these disorders. Consecutive patients ≤45 years of age with ≥3 months undiagnosed back pain with any one of psoriasis, AAU, or colitis undergo routine clinical evaluation by a rheumatologist for axial SpA followed by imaging. In SASPIC I, MRI evaluation of the SIJ was ordered per rheumatologist decision. In SASPIC II, MRI evaluation was ordered for all patients. Radiographs and MRI scans were assessed by two central readers and comparisons of the three groups were based on concordant assessments of imaging features. Evaluation of MRI scans included both global assessment for presence/absence of axSpA with confidence scale (-10 to +10), active and structural lesions typical of axSpA per recent ASAS definitions, and granular assessment of individual lesions according to SIJ quadrants and halves in consecutive semicoronal slices through the SIJ. Groups were compared by ANOVA and the chi-square test.

Results:

A total of 240 patients were recruited, 143 from SASPIC I and 97 from SASPIC II, 101 (42.1%) being diagnosed with axSpA (65.3% male, mean age 34.4 years, mean symptom duration 8.7 years, B27 positive 55.4%). Mean age of colitis (N=101), psoriasis (N=61), iritis (N=78) patients were 33.4, 36.6, 34.3 years, respectively, mean symptom duration was 6.8, 7.2, 9.4 years, respectively, and % males were 45.5%, 52.5%, 51.3%, respectively. There were no significant group differences for unilateral versus bilateral radiographic sacroiliitis and no significant differences in the frequencies, type, or distribution of MRI lesions (Table 1).

Conclusion:

Data from the SASPIC prospective inception cohort does not support the view that imaging of the SIJ differs in psoriatic axSpA, which appears similar to axSpA associated with iritis or colitis. These data support the umbrella concept of axSpA.

Imaging FeatureColitis (n=30)Psoriasis (n=19)Iritis (n=52)P valueUnilateral sacroiliitis (grade ≥2), N(%)1 (3.3%)0 (0%)2 (3.8%)0.69mNY criteria +, N(%)5 (16.7%)6 (31.2%)15 (28.8%)0.39Grade of sacroiliitis, mean(SD)1.8 (2.2)2.1 (2.7)2.2 (2.4)0.76MRI indicative of axSpA, N(%)15 (50.0%)11 (57.9%)32 (61.5%)0.60MRI indicative of axSpA (confidence ≥5/10), N(%)14 (46.7%)10 (52.6%)30 (57.7%)0.63MRI active lesion typical of axSpA, N(%)6 (20.0%)6 (31.6%)18 (34.6%)0.37MRI structural lesion typical of axSpA, N(%)11 (36.7%)7 (36.8%)18 (34.6%)0.98MRI with unilateral lesion (any)2 (6.7%)3 (15.8%)11 (21.2%)0.22MRI with unilateral lesion (BME)1 (3.3%)2 (10.5%)5 (9.6%)0.54MRI with unilateral lesion (Erosion)0 (0%)0 (0%)3 (5.8%)0.23MRI with unilateral lesion (Sclerosis)1 (3.3%)1 (5.3%)3 (5.8%)0.89MRI with unilateral lesion (Fat)0 (0%)0 (0%)0 (0%)NAMRI with iliac lesion17 (56.7%)12 (63.2%)32 (61.5%)0.88MRI with sacral lesion12 (40.0%)11 (57.9%)31 (59.6%)0.21

Disclosure of Interests:

Walter P Maksymowych Speakers bureau: Abbvie, Janssen, Novartis, Pfizer, UCB, Consultant of: Abbvie, BMS, Boehringer, Galapagos, Gilead, Lilly, Novartis, Pfizer, UCB, Grant/research support from: Abbvie, Novartis, Pfizer, Ulrich Weber: None declared, Jon Chan: None declared, Raj Carmona: None declared, James Yeung: None declared, Sibel Aydin: None declared, Jodie Reis: None declared, Liam Martin: None declared, Ariel Masetto: None declared, Olga Ziouzina: None declared, Dianne Mosher: None declared, Stephanie Keeling: None declared, Sherry Rohekar: None declared, Rana Dadashova: None declared, Joel Paschke: None declared, Amanda Carapellucci: None declared, Robert G Lambert: None declared.

SAT0378 THE RELATIVE DIAGNOSTIC UTILITY OF INFLAMMATORY BACK PAIN CRITERIA IN AN INCEPTION COHORT OF PATIENTS WITH PSORIASIS, IRITIS, AND COLITIS PRESENTING WITH UNDIAGNOSED BACK PAIN

Background:

Clinicians rely on the elicitation of features of inflammatory back pain (IBP) for diagnosis of axial spondyloarthritis (axSpA) but the utility of IBP criteria in patients presenting with extra-articular features of axSpA remains unclear. Assessment of utility should include not only rheumatologist diagnosis as benchmark but imaging to address the circularity between elicitation of IBP and clinical diagnosis.

Objectives:

To assess the diagnostic utility of all criteria for IBP in patients with psoriasis, iritis, or colitis and undiagnosed back pain using the rheumatologist diagnosis and imaging as benchmarks.

Methods:

Consecutive patients (n=246) with undiagnosed back pain ≤45 years of age, ≥3 months, with any one of psoriasis (n=46), acute anterior uveitis (AAU)(n=73), or colitis (n=127) had diagnostic evaluation by a rheumatologist. Majority central reader assessment of MRI indicative of axSpA and diagnosis by the rheumatologist were external standards for testing the utility of these IBP criteria: ASAS, Berlin, Calin, rheumatologist global for IBP >5 (0-10 scale).

Results:

AxSpA was diagnosed in 44.4%, 61.6%, and 41.8% of patients with psoriasis, iritis, and IBD, respectively. Diagnostic utility for all IBP criteria was comparably poor (Table 1). MRI was indicative of axSpA in 21.2%, 43.5%, and 19.7% of patients with psoriasis, iritis, and IBD. The utility of the IBP criteria was even worse using MRI as the external reference (Table 2), especially in patients with psoriasis. Only 14% of psoriasis patients with a positive MRI reported “improvement with exercise but not rest” as compared to 70% and 62% of patients with iritis and IBD, respectively.

Table 1.

Rheumatologist diagnosis as external reference.

SensitivitySpecificityLR+LR-PsoriasisASAS IBP65.00%52.00%1.350.67Berlin IBP80.00%36.00%1.250.56Calin IBP80.00%28.00%1.110.71All 3 criteria sets60.00%56.00%1.360.71IBP global >585.00%36.00%1.330.42AAUASAS IBP84.44%42.86%1.480.36Berlin IBP80.00%57.14%1.870.35Calin IBP93.33%17.86%1.140.37All 3 criteria sets77.78%60.71%1.980.37IBP global >586.67%57.14%2.020.23IBDASAS IBP78.43%45.07%1.430.48Berlin IBP82.35%52.11%1.720.34Calin IBP84.31%19.72%1.050.80All 3 criteria sets70.59%57.75%1.670.51IBP global >580.39%66.20%2.380.30Table 2.

Central assessment that MRI is indicative of axSpA as external reference.

SensitivitySpecificityLR+LR-PsoriasisASAS IBP28.57%38.46%0.461.86Berlin IBP42.86%15.38%0.513.71Calin IBP71.43%23.08%0.931.24All 3 criteria sets14.29%42.31%0.252.03IBP global >585.71%23.08%1.110.62AAUASAS IBP75.00%26.92%1.030.93Berlin IBP70.00%38.46%1.140.78Calin IBP90.00%15.38%1.060.65All 3 criteria sets65.00%38.46%1.060.91IBP global >575.00%38.46%1.220.65IBDASAS IBP92.31%37.74%1.480.20Berlin IBP76.92%39.62%1.270.58Calin IBP92.31%16.98%1.110.45All 3 criteria sets76.92%45.28%1.410.51IBP global >592.31%47.17%1.750.16

Conclusion:

All IBP criteria have poor diagnostic utility for diagnosis of axSpA, especially in patients with psoriasis. This reinforces the desirability of less subjective assessment tools, especially imaging.

Disclosure of Interests:

Georg Kröber: None declared, Ulrich Weber: None declared, Raj Carmona: None declared, James Yeung: None declared, Jon Chan: None declared, Sibel Aydin: None declared, Liam Martin: None declared, Ariel Masetto: None declared, Stephanie Keeling: None declared, Olga Ziouzina: None declared, Sherry Rohekar: None declared, Rana Dadashova: None declared, Joel Paschke: None declared, Amanda Carapellucci: None declared, Robert G Lambert: None declared, Walter P. Maksymowych Grant/research support from: AbbVie, Novartis, Pfizer, and UCB, Consultant of: AbbVie, Boehringer Ingelheim, Celgene, Eli Lilly, Galapagos, Janssen, Novartis, Pfizer, and UCB, Employee of: Chief Medical Officer of CARE Arthritis Limited, Speakers bureau: AbbVie, Janssen, Novartis, Pfizer, and UCB

SAT0383 ENHANCED PERFORMANCE OF THE ASAS CLASSIFICATION CRITERIA BY DELETION OF NON-DISCRIMINATORY CLINICAL ITEMS: DATA FROM THE SCREENING IN AXIAL SPONDYLOARTHRITIS IN PSORIASIS, IRITIS, AND COLITIS COHORT

Background:

The ASAS classification criteria for axial spondyloarthritis (axSpA) have overall sensitivity/specificity of 82.9%/84.4% but component imaging and clinical arms differ in performance (66.2%/97.3% and 56.6%/83.3%, respectively)1.

Objectives:

We aimed to demonstrate that a data-driven elimination of SpA clinical features that were non-discriminatory in comparisons of patients diagnosed with and without axSpA in a prospective cohort of patients with undiagnosed back pain could enhance the performance of the criteria.

Methods:

We used data from the prospective multicenter Screening for Axial Spondyloarthritis in Psoriasis, Iritis, and Colitis (SASPIC) Study. Consecutive patients ≤45 years of age with ≥3 months undiagnosed back pain with any one of psoriasis, AAU, or colitis undergo routine diagnostic evaluation by a rheumatologist for axial SpA, including imaging assessed by central readers. Univariable and multivariable logistic regression analysis was performed to determine which clinical SpA features were/were not discriminatory for the final diagnosis of axSpA. We then compared the sensitivity and specificity of the ASAS criteria with and without these features.

Results:

A total of 246 patients were recruited, 47.6% being diagnosed with axSpA (61.5% male, age 33.7 years, symptom duration 7.6 years, B27 positive 52.1%). The following clinical SpA features were non-discriminatory between axSpA/not axSpA: NSAID response, family history of SpA, heel enthesitis, peripheral arthritis, dactylitis. Specificity of the clinical arm and the overall criteria increased from 82.2% to 86.8% without impacting sensitivity. This effect was particularly noteworthy in patients with lower degree of symptomatology (back pain severity <5/10, specificity increases from 76.7% to 90.7%), short symptom duration (<5 years, specificity increases from 78% to 84.7%), and in females (specificity increases from 80.6% to 86.1%).

Conclusion:

In a prospective cohort with a high pre-test probability of axSpA certain clinical SpA features were not helpful in discriminating a diagnosis of SpA from not-SpA. Deletion of these features from the list of SpA features used in the ASAS classification criteria enhanced the performance of the criteria, especially in female patients and those with early disease.

References:

[1]Rudwaleit et al. Ann Rheum Dis 2009;68: 777-83

Patient CategoryNumberASAS criteriaImaging armClinical armSenSpecSenSpecSensSpecAll patients2466582.236.897.750.482.2High confidence in diagnosis19073.884.547.598.256.384.5Patients with back pain ≥5/1016563.384.934.298.851.984.9Patients with back pain <58168.476.742.195.347.476.7Patients with symptom duration ≥5 years10371.285.735.697.156.285.7Patients with symptom duration <5 years14354.57838.698.340.978Males12968.184.247.298.248.684.2Females1176080.62097.253.380.6After deletion of ‘NSAID response’, ‘Family Hx SpA’, ‘heel enthesitis’, ‘peripheral arthritis’, ‘dactylitis’ SpA featuresAll patients2466586.836.897.750.486.8High confidence in diagnosis19073.887.347.598.256.387.3Patients with back pain ≥5/1016563.384.934.298.851.984.9Patients with back pain <58168.490.742.195.347.490.7Patients with symptom duration ≥5 years10371.288.635.697.156.288.6Patients with symptom duration <5 years14354.584.738.698.340.984.7Males12968.187.747.298.248.687.7Females1176086.12097.253.386.1

Disclosure of Interests:

Walter P. Maksymowych Grant/research support from: AbbVie, Novartis, Pfizer, and UCB, Consultant of: AbbVie, Boehringer Ingelheim, Celgene, Eli Lilly, Galapagos, Janssen, Novartis, Pfizer, and UCB, Employee of: Chief Medical Officer of CARE Arthritis Limited, Speakers bureau: AbbVie, Janssen, Novartis, Pfizer, and UCB, Raj Carmona: None declared, Jon Chan: None declared, James Yeung: None declared, Sibel Aydin: None declared, Liam Martin: None declared, Ariel Masetto: None declared, Olga Ziouzina: None declared, Stephanie Keeling: None declared, Sherry Rohekar: None declared, Rana Dadashova: None declared, Joel Paschke: None declared, Amanda Carapellucci: None declared, Robert G Lambert: None declared

FRI0298 ASAS MODIFICATION OF THE BERLIN ALGORITHM AND THE DUET ALGORITHM FOR DIAGNOSING AXIAL SPONDYLOARTHRITIS: RESULTS FROM THE SCREENING IN AXIAL SPONDYLOARTHRITIS FOR PSORIASIS, IRITIS, AND COLITIS COHORT

Background:

Patients presenting with back pain and psoriasis, iritis, or colitis, represent a high-risk population for the presence of axial spondyloarthritis (axSpA). The Dublin Evaluation Tool (DUET)1, the Berlin algorithm2, and the ASAS modification of this algorithm3are recommended referral strategies aimed at early diagnosis of axSpA. DUET was developed for patients presenting with AAU. Validation of these algorithms in inception cohorts is limited.

Objectives:

1. To assess the performance of referral algorithms for diagnosis of axSpA when tested against the final local rheumatologist diagnosis in an inception cohort of patients presenting with undiagnosed back pain and extra-articular manifestations. 2. To determine whether different criteria for inflammatory back pain (IBP) impact the performance of the algorithms.

Methods:

The multicenter Screening for Axial Spondyloarthritis in Psoriasis, Iritis, and Colitis (SASPIC) Study at 11 sites is aimed at early detection of axial SpA in patients presenting with undiagnosed back pain to the rheumatologist. Consecutive patients ≤45 years of age with ≥3 months undiagnosed back pain with any one of psoriasis, acute anterior uveitis (AAU), or colitis diagnosed by the relevant specialist undergo routine clinical evaluation by a rheumatologist for axial SpA. The rheumatologist determines the presence or absence of axial SpA at 3 consecutive stages: 1. After the clinical evaluation; 2. After the results of labs (B27, CRP) and radiography; 3. After the results of MRI evaluation. Final diagnosis by the rheumatologist was used as external standard to test the performance of the algorithms. We tested the following criteria for IBP in the algorithm: ASAS, Berlin, rheumatologist global for likelihood of IBP >5 (0-10 scale), and DUET algorithm in AAU patients.

Results:

A total of 246 patients were recruited, 73 presented with iritis, 46 with psoriasis, and 127 with colitis, 47.6% were diagnosed with axSpA. The diagnosis of axSpA was established in 45.7%, 61.6%, and 40.2% of patients with psoriasis, AAU, and IBD, respectively. The performance of the ASAS-modification of the Berlin algorithm was superior to the original algorithm as reported previously3, primarily for enhanced sensitivity, and this was observed irrespective of the criteria used to define IBP (Table 1). Conversely, the performance of the Duet algorithm in the subset of patients with AAU was substantially worse than previously reported1.

Conclusion:

The ASAS modification of the Berlin algorithm is the preferred referral strategy for patients presenting with undiagnosed back pain to the rheumatologist.

References:

[1]Haroon M, et al. Ann Rheum Dis 2015; 74: 1990-5

[2]Poddubnyy D, et al. J Rheumatol 2011; 38: 2452–60

[3]Van den Berg R, et al. Ann Rheum Dis 2013;72:1646–53

AlgorithmSensitivity (%)Specificity (%)Correct diagnosis (%)False negative (%)False positive (%)Original Berlin(ASAS criteria for IBP)65.376.671.116.712.2Original Berlin(Berlin criteria for IBP)64.476.670.717.112.2Original Berlin(IBP global >5)67.878.173.215.411.4ASAS Modification of Berlin algorithm (ASAS criteria for IBP)73.775.874.812.612.6ASAS Modification of Berlin algorithm (Berlin criteria for IBP)73.775.074.412.613.0ASAS Modification of Berlin algorithm(IBP global >5)76.377.376.811.411.8DUET84.450.071.29.619.2

Disclosure of Interests:

Ulrich Weber: None declared, Georg Kröber: None declared, Raj Carmona: None declared, James Yeung: None declared, Jon Chan: None declared, Sibel Aydin: None declared, Liam Martin: None declared, Ariel Masetto: None declared, Stephanie Keeling: None declared, Olga Ziouzina: None declared, Sherry Rohekar: None declared, Rana Dadashova: None declared, Amanda Carapellucci: None declared, Joel Paschke: None declared, Robert G Lambert: None declared, Walter P. Maksymowych Grant/research support from: AbbVie, Novartis, Pfizer, and UCB, Consultant of: AbbVie, Boehringer Ingelheim, Celgene, Eli Lilly, Galapagos, Janssen, Novartis, Pfizer, and UCB, Employee of: Chief Medical Officer of CARE Arthritis Limited, Speakers bureau: AbbVie, Janssen, Novartis, Pfizer, and UCB

Bird population declines in the Chametla wetland (Southern Gulf of California): Evidence of stress at the assemblage level

The Chametla wetland is used by shorebirds as a stopover site during their autumn migration and it is also an important breeding area for several species of waterbirds. The objective of this work was to compare the bird assemblages in Chametla wetland during three sampling periods: 1) 1991–1992; 2) 1997–1998 which was subjected to El Nino Southern Oscillation (ENSO) climate conditions and 3) 2005–2006. Bird communities were characterized in terms of species composition and diversity, using similarity analysis. Bird assemblage composition differed across years and seasons. Seasonal variations in composition and diversity were related to the presence/absence of phenological-characterized species (migratory vs. wintering species). The highest species richness was recorded under the ENSO period (1997–1998). We observed a sharp decrease in shorebird numbers, with evident stress at the assemblage level throughout the entire study period. There seems to be a transition of the bird assemblages from shorebird dominance to a dominance by long-legged wading birds and waterfowl species, which could be related to water level variation and changes in the quality/availability of food in the intertidal zone. The joint pressures of regional climate variation combined with local anthropogenic perturbations may lead to changes in bird assemblage in the Chametla wetland.

Will there be cold-related mortality in Spain over the 2021-2050 and 2051-2100 time horizons despite the increase in temperatures as a consequence of climate change?

INTRODUCTION

Global warming is resulting in an increase in temperatures which is set to become more marked by the end of the century and depends on the accelerating pace of greenhouse gas emissions into the atmosphere. Yet even in this scenario, so-called "cold waves" will continue to be generated and have an impact on health.

OBJECTIVES

This study sought to analyse the impact of cold waves on daily mortality at a provincial level in Spain over the 2021-2050 and 2051-2100 time horizons under RCP4.5 and RCP 8.5 emission scenarios, on the basis of two hypotheses: (1) that the cold-wave definition temperature (T _threshold) would not vary over time; and, (2) that there would be a variation in T _threshold.

MATERIAL AND METHODS

The results of a retrospective study undertaken for Spain as a whole across the period 2000-2009 enabled us to ascertain the cold-wave definition temperature at a provincial level and its impact on health, measured by reference to population attributable risk (PAR). The minimum daily temperatures projected for each provincial capital considering the above time horizons and emission scenarios were provided by the State Meteorological Agency. On the basis of the T _threshold definition values and minimum daily temperatures projected for each province, we calculated the expected impact of low temperatures on mortality under the above two hypotheses. Keeping the PAR values constant, it was assumed that the mortality rate would vary in accordance with the available data.

RESULTS

If T _threshold remained constant over the above time horizons under both emission scenarios, there would be no cold-related mortality. If T _threshold were assumed to vary over time, however, then cold-related mortality would not disappear: it would instead remain practically constant over time and give rise to an estimated overall figure of around 250 deaths per year, equivalent to close on a quarter of Spain's current annual cold-related mortality and entailing a cost of approximately €1000 million per year.

CONCLUSION

Given that cold waves are not going to disappear and that their impact on mortality is far from negligible and is likely to remain so, public health prevention measures must be implemented to minimise these effects as far as possible.

Mortality attributable to high temperatures over the 2021-2050 and 2051-2100 time horizons in Spain: Adaptation and economic estimate

BACKGROUND

In recent years, a number of studies have been conducted with the aim of analysing the impact that high temperatures will have on mortality over different time horizons under different climate scenarios. Very few of these studies take into account the fact that the threshold temperature used to define a heat wave will vary over time, and there are practically none which calculate this threshold temperature for each geographical area on the assumption that there will be variations at a country level.

OBJECTIVE

To analyse the impact that high temperatures will have on mortality across the periods 2021-2050 and 2051-2100 under a high-emission climate scenario (RCP8.5), in a case: (a) where adaptation processes are not taken into account; and (b) where complete adaptation processes are taken into account.

MATERIAL AND METHODS

Based on heat-wave definition temperature (T_threshold) values previously calculated for the reference period, 2000-2009, for each Spanish provincial capital, and their impact on daily mortality as measured by population attributable risk (PAR), the impact of high temperatures on mortality will be calculated for the above-mentioned future periods. Two hypotheses will be considered, namely: (a) that T_threshold does not vary over time (scenario without adaptation to heat); and, (b) that T_threshold does vary over time, with the percentile to which said T_threshold corresponds being assumed to remain constant (complete adaptation to heat). The temperature data were sourced from projections generated by Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP5) climate models adapted to each region's local characteristics by the State Meteorological Agency (Agencia Estatal de Meteorología/AEMET). Population-growth projections were obtained from the National Statistics Institute (Instituto Nacional de Estadística/INE). In addition, an economic estimate of the resulting impact will be drawn up.

RESULTS

The mean value of maximum daily temperatures will rise, in relation to those of the reference period (2000-2009), by 1.6⁰C across the period 2021-2050 and by 3.3⁰C across the period 2051-2100. In a case where there is no heat-adaptation process, overall annual mortality attributable to high temperatures in Spain would amount to 1414 deaths/year (95% CI: 1089-1771) in the period 2021-2050, rising to 12,896 deaths/year (95% CI: 9852-15,976) in the period 2051-2100. In a case where there is a heat-adaptation process, annual mortality would be 651 deaths/year (95% CI: 500-807) in the period 2021-2050, and 931 deaths per year (95% CI: 770-1081) in the period 2051-2100. These results display a high degree of heterogeneity. The savings between a situation that does envisage and one that does not envisage an adaptive process is €49,100 million/year over the 2051-2100 time horizon.

CONCLUSION

A non-linear increase in maximum daily temperatures was observed, which varies widely from some regions to others, with an increase in mean values for Spain as a whole that is not linear over time. The high degree of heterogeneity found in heat-related mortality by region and the great differences observed on considering an adaptive versus a non-adaptive process render it necessary for adaptation plans to be implemented at a regional level.

Time trends in the impact attributable to cold days in Spain: Incidence of local factors

BACKGROUND

While numerous studies have shown that the impact of cold waves is decreasing as result of various processes of adaptation, far fewer have analysed the time trend shown by such impact, and still fewer have done so for the different provinces of a single country, moreover using a specific cold waves definition for each. This study thus aimed to analyse the time trend of the impact of cold days on daily mortality in Spain across the period 1983-2003.

METHODS

For study purposes, we used daily mortality data for all natural causes except accidents in ten Spanish provinces. The time series was divided into three subperiods. For each period and province, the value of T_threshold was obtained via the percentile corresponding to the cold day's definition for that province obtained in previous studies. Relative Risks (RRs) and Population Attributable Fraction (PARs) were calculated using Generalised Linear Models (GLMs) with the Poisson regression link. Seasonalities, trends and autoregressive components were controlled. Global RRs and ARs were calculated with the aid of a meta-analysis with random effects for each of the periods.

RESULTS

The results show that the RRs for Spain as a whole were 1.12 (95% CI: 1.08 1.16) for the first period, 1.15 (95% CI: 1.09 1.22) for the second and 1.18 (95% CI: 1.10 1.26) for the third. The impact of cold days has risen slightly over time, though the differences were not statistically significant. These findings show a clearly different behaviour pattern to that previously found for heat.

CONCLUSION

The results obtained in this study do not show a downward trend for colds days. The complexity of the biological mechanisms involved in cold-related mortality and the lack of robust results mean that more research must be done in this particular field of public health.

Time trend in the impact of heat waves on daily mortality in Spain for a period of over thirty years (1983-2013)

Many of the studies that analyze the future impact of climate change on mortality assume that the temperature that constitutes a heat wave will not change over time. This is unlikely, however, given the process of adapting to heat changes, prevention plans, and improvements in social and health infrastructure. The objective of this study is to analyze whether, during the 1983-2013 period, there has been a temporal change in the maximum daily temperatures that constitute a heat wave (T_threshold) in Spain, and to investigate whether there has been variation in the attributable risk (AR) associated with mortality due to high temperatures in this period. This study uses daily mortality data for natural causes except accidents CIEX: A00-R99 in municipalities of over 10,000 inhabitants in 10 Spanish provinces and maximum temperature data from observatories located in province capitals. The time series is divided into three periods: 1983-1992, 1993-2003 and 2004-2013. For each period and each province, the value of T_threshold was calculated using scatter-plot diagram of the daily mortality pre-whitened series. For each period and each province capitals, it has been calculated the number of heat waves and quantifying the impact on mortality through generalized linear model (GLM) methodology with the Poisson regression link. These models permits obtained the relative risks (RR) and attributable risks (AR). Via a meta-analysis, using the Global RR and AR were calculated the heat impact for the total of the 10 provinces. The results show that in the first two periods RR remained constant RR: 1.14 (CI95%: 1.09 1.19) and RR: 1.14 (CI95%: 1.10 1.18), while the third period shows a sharp decrease with respect to the prior two periods RR: 1.01 (CI95%: 1.00 1.01); the difference is statistically significant. In Spain there has been a sharp decrease in mortality attributable to heat over the past 10 years. The observed variation in RR puts into question the results of numerous studies that analyze the future impact of heat on mortality in different temporal scenarios and show it to be constant over time.

Papillary thyroid microcarcinoma: characteristics at presentation, and evaluation of clinical and histological features associated with a worse prognosis in a Latin American cohort

Objective We aimed to describe the presentation of papillary microcarcinoma (PTMC) and identify the clinical and histological features associated with persistence/recurrence in a Latin American cohort. Subjects and methods Retrospective study of PTMC patients who underwent total thyroidectomy, with or without radioactive iodine (RAI), and who were followed for at least 2 years. Risk of recurrence was estimated with ATA 2009 and 2015 classifications, and risk of mortality with 7th and 8th AJCC/TNM systems. Clinical data obtained during follow-up were used to detect structural and biochemical persistence/recurrence. Results We included 209 patients, predominantly female (90%), 44.5 ± 12.6 years old, 183 (88%) received RAI (90.4 ± 44.2 mCi), followed-up for a median of 4.4 years (range 2.0-7.8). The 7th and 8th AJCC/TNM system classified 89% and 95.2% of the patients as stage I, respectively. ATA 2009 and ATA 2015 classified 70.8% and 78.5% of the patients as low risk, respectively. Fifteen (7%) patients had persistence/recurrence during follow-up. In multivariate analysis, only lymph node metastasis was associated with persistence/recurrence (coefficient beta 4.0, p = 0.016; 95% CI 1.3-12.9). There were no PTMC related deaths. Conclusions Our series found no mortality and low rate of persistence/recurrence associated with PTMC. Lymph node metastasis was the only feature associated with recurrence in multivariate analysis. The updated ATA 2015 and 8th AJCC/TNM systems classified more PTMCs than previous classifications as low risk of recurrence and mortality, respectively.

Impact on mortality of biomass combustion from wildfires in Spain: A regional analysis

Studies that analyse the impact on mortality of particulate matter (PM) produced by biomass combustion from wildfires mostly focus on a single city or on cities in different countries, with very few concentrating on one country as a whole. Accordingly, the aim of this paper was to analyse the impact that PM has on daily mortality in Spain on days with biomass combustion from wildfires. To analyse natural PM advections the Ministry of Agriculture and Fishing, Food & Environment divides Spain into 9 geographical regions. One province representative of each region for was selected analysis purposes, with provincial daily natural-cause mortality across the period 2004-2009 as the dependent variable, and daily mean PM concentrations in the provincial capital as the independent variable. We controlled for the effect of other chemical pollutants (NO₂ and O₃), maximum daily temperature on heat-wave days, day of the week, trends, seasonalities and the autoregressive nature of the series, using generalised linear models with the Poisson regression link to calculate relative risks (RRs) and the increase in RR (IRR) of PM-related mortality. The analysis was performed for days with and without biomass advections (DBA and DNBA respectively), with a breakdown by year, summer, and the remainder of the year (i.e., excluding summer). The results indicated that daily mean PM concentrations were higher on DBA than on DNBA, with statistically significant differences in most provinces. Furthermore, PM₁₀ was associated with higher daily mortality on DBA in regions where wildfires were most frequent, but not in the remaining provinces. This translated as an IRR per 10μg/m³ of PM of 7.93 (2.36-13.81) in the North-west, 3.76 (1.36-6.22) in the Centre and 4.46 (2.99-5.94) in the South-west, values which in all cases were statistically higher than those obtained on DNBA. The increase in PM caused by biomass advections from wildfires is linked to a significant IRR of mortality in Spain. Hence, the fact that wildfires are likely to become increasingly frequent in the context of climate change makes this type of analysis particularly necessary.

Emergency multiple sclerosis hospital admissions attributable to chemical and acoustic pollution: Madrid (Spain), 2001-2009

INTRODUCTION

Multiple sclerosis (MS) is the most prevalent neurological disease among young adults in Spain. A number of recent studies have linked traffic-related pollution, both chemical and acoustic, to the aetiology and exacerbation of neurodegenerative diseases.

OBJECTIVE

To analyse the existence of a significant short-term association between daily emergency MS hospital admissions and chemical and acoustic pollution caused by traffic in Madrid.

METHODOLOGY

We conducted a longitudinal ecological time series study, in which the dependent variable was the number of daily emergency MS hospital admissions (ICD-9: 340) registered in Madrid from 1 January 2001 to 31 December 2009. The independent variables were daily mean concentrations (μg/m³) of PM_2.5, PM₁₀, O₃ and NO₂. Equivalent diurnal (Leqd), nocturnal (Leqn) and daily equivalent noise levels (Leq24) were also considered. In addition, we controlled for linear trends, seasonality and the autoregressive nature of the series itself. Day of the week was also added as a covariate. Significant environmental variables were determined using Poisson GLM models. Relative risk (RR) and attributable risk (AR) values were calculated for increases of 10μg/m³ in the case of chemical pollutants and 1dB(A) in noise levels.

RESULTS

While there was no association between chemical pollutants caused by traffic and MS admissions, such an association was in evidence for Leqd at lag zero. This association is linear without a threshold, with there being a level above 67dB(A) from which this effect is more pronounced. The RRs were as follows: for all Leqd values, 1.21 (95% CI: 1.16, 1.26); and for Leqd >67dB(A), 1.62 (95% CI: 1.24, 2.13).

CONCLUSION

The above results indicate that traffic noise can exacerbate MS symptoms, leading to hospital admissions due to this cause.

Spatial variability in threshold temperatures of heat wave mortality: impact assessment on prevention plans

Spain's current heat wave prevention plans are activated according to administrative areas. This study analyses the determination of threshold temperatures for triggering prevention-plan activation by reference to isoclimatic areas, and describes the public health benefits. We subdivided the study area - the Madrid Autonomous Region (MAR) - into three, distinct, isoclimatic areas: 'North', 'Central' and 'South', and grouped daily natural-cause mortality (ICD-10: A00-R99) in towns of over 10,000 inhabitants (2000-2009 period) accordingly. Using these three areas rather than the MAR as a whole would have resulted in a possible decrease in mortality of 73 persons (38-108) in the North area, and in aborting unnecessary activation of the plan 153 times in the Central area and 417 times in the South area. Our results indicate that extrapolating this methodology would bring benefits associated with a reduction in attributable mortality and improved effectiveness of public health interventions.

Neck Sonography and Suppressed Thyroglobulin Have High Sensitivity for Identifying Recurrent/Persistent Disease in Patients With Low-risk Thyroid Cancer Treated With Total Thyroidectomy and Radioactive Iodine Ablation, Making Stimulated Thyroglobulin Unnecessary

OBJECTIVES

Follow-up of patients with low-risk differentiated thyroid cancer treated with total thyroidectomy and radioiodine requires neck sonography and thyroglobulin (Tg). The need to stimulate Tg is controversial. The goal of this study was to compare the diagnostic performances of sonography plus suppressed or stimulated Tg in low-risk thyroid cancer.

METHODS

After total thyroidectomy and radioiodine, patients with low-risk thyroid cancer were retrospectively identified as having structural or biochemical persistence/recurrence. We compared the diagnostic performance of suppressed and stimulated Tg to detect persistence/recurrence.

RESULTS

We included 148 patients with low-risk thyroid cancer who were followed for a median of 3.7 years. Persistence/recurrence was found in 8 patients (5.4%; 5 structural disease and 3 biochemical disease). Thyroglobulin was not stimulated in 72 patients (group 1) and stimulated in 76 (group 2). In group 1, 5 patients (6.9%) had structural neck persistence/recurrence (3 with suppressed Tg ≥ 1 ng/mL and 2 with suppressed Tg < 1 ng/mL). Four patients underwent surgery, and 1 was surveilled. All 5 patients had suppressed Tg lower than 1 ng/mL at the end of follow-up. In group 2, stimulated Tg did not identify additional cases of structural persistence/recurrence but classified 3 patients (3.9%) as having biochemical persistence/recurrence. One patient received a second dose of radioiodine, and the other 2 were surveilled; all were without disease at the end of follow-up. Suppressed and stimulated Tg had negative predictive values for persistence/recurrence of 97% and 100%, respectively.

CONCLUSIONS

In low-risk thyroid cancer treated with total thyroidectomy and radioiodine, sonography and suppressed or stimulated Tg have similar negative predictive values for persistence/recurrence. Importantly, the coexistence of negative sonographic findings and suppressed Tg lower than 1 ng/mL makes the addition of stimulated Tg unlikely to identify clinically important disease.

Association between environmental factors and emergency hospital admissions due to Alzheimer's disease in Madrid

INTRODUCTION

There are scarce studies of time series that analysed the short-term association between emergency hospital admissions due to Alzheimer's disease (AD) and environmental factors. The objective is to analyse the effect of heat waves, noise and air pollutants on urgent hospital admissions due to AD in Madrid.

METHODS

Longitudinal ecological time series study was performed. The dependent variable was the emergency AD hospital admissions occurred in Madrid during the period 2001-2009. Independent variables were: Daily mean concentrations (μg/m3) of air pollutants (PM_2.5 and PM₁₀; O3 and NO2); maximum daily temperature (°C) and daily and night noise levels (dB(A)). Relative Risk (RR) for an increment in interquartile range, and Attributable Risk (AR) values were calculated through GLM with Poisson link.

RESULTS

Our findings indicated that only PM_2.5 concentrations at lag 2 with a RR: 1.38 (95% CI: 1.15-1.65); AR 27.5% (95% CI: 13.0-39.4); and heat wave days at lag 3 with a RR: 1.30 (95% CI: 1.12-1.52); AR 23.1% (95% CI: 10.7-34.2) were associated with AD hospital admissions.

CONCLUSION

A reduction in AD patients' exposure levels to PM_2.5 and special care of such patients during heat wave periods could result in a decrease in both emergency AD admissions and the related health care costs.

Saharan dust intrusions in Spain: Health impacts and associated synoptic conditions

BACKGROUND

A lot of papers have been published about the impact on mortality of Sahara dust intrusions in individual cities. However, there is a lack of studies that analyse the impact on a country and scarcer if in addition the analysis takes into account the meteorological conditions that favour these intrusions.

OBJECTIVES

The main aim is to examine the effect of Saharan dust intrusions on daily mortality in different Spanish regions and to characterize the large-scale atmospheric circulation anomalies associated with such dust intrusions.

METHODS

For determination of days with Saharan dust intrusions, we used information supplied by the Ministry of Agriculture, Food & Environment, it divides Spain into 9 main areas. In each of these regions, a representative province was selected. A time series analysis has been performed to analyse the relationship between daily mortality and PM₁₀ levels in the period from 01.01.04 to 31.12.09, using Poisson regression and stratifying the analysis by the presence or absence of Saharan dust advections.

RESULTS

The proportion of days on which there are Saharan dust intrusions rises to 30% of days. The synoptic pattern is characterised by an anticyclonic ridge extending from northern Africa to the Iberian Peninsula. Particulate matter (PM) on days with intrusions are associated with daily mortality, something that does not occur on days without intrusions, indicating that Saharan dust may be a risk factor for daily mortality. In other cases, what Saharan dust intrusions do is to change the PM-related mortality behaviour pattern, going from PM_2.5.

CONCLUSIONS

A study such as the one conducted here, in which meteorological analysis of synoptic situations which favour Saharan dust intrusions, is combined with the effect on health at a city level, would seem to be crucial when it comes to analysing the differentiated mortality pattern in situations of Saharan dust intrusions.

Effects of noise on telephone calls to the Madrid Regional Medical Emergency Service (SUMMA 112)

BACKGROUND

Although the effects of noise on population morbidity and mortality have been observed both in the short and long term, the morbidity and mortality indicators used to date have not enabled information on such health effects to be accessed in real time. At an international level, there are relatively few studies, mostly recent, which have considered an alternative indicator, such as the demand for medical attention provided by emergency services, taking into account environmental factors other than noise.

OBJECTIVES

To ascertain the short-term effect of road-traffic noise levels on medical care, broken down by organic, circulatory and respiratory causes, provided by the Madrid Regional Medical Emergency Service (Servicio de Urgencia Médica de Madrid/SUMMA 112).

METHODS

We used an ecological time-series study and fitted Poisson regression models, to analyse the number of daily, cause-specific episodes of care provided in situ by SUMMA 112, via emergency ambulance dispatches, across the period 01/01/2008-31/12/2009. To this end, we considered diurnal (Leqd: 7-23h), nocturnal (Leqn: 23-7h) and daily (Leq24: 24h) noise (in db(A)) as the principal factor, and chemical air pollution (µg/m³) and temperature (°C) as the control variables. We also controlled for trend and seasonalities, the autoregressive nature of the series, and day of the week.

RESULTS

Nocturnal noise exceeded the WHO threshold (55 db(A)) on 100% of nights, despite displaying a downward trend across the study period. For all causes, with the exception of emergency calls due to ischaemic disease, it was nocturnal rather than diurnal noise levels that had a short-term effect (lags 0-1) on SUMMA 112 calls, with this impact being greater for respiratory than for circulatory causes. Hence, for every increase of 1db in Leqn, the relative risks (RRs) were as follows: 1.11 (95% CI 1.09-1.13) for organic causes; 1.14 (95% CI: 1.11-1.18) for respiratory causes; and 1.08 (95% CI: 1.05-1.10) for circulatory causes.

CONCLUSION

SUMMA 112 data give access to real-time information on the health effects associated with increases in noise levels, which cannot be obtained via mortality or hospital-admission data, since these are collected in the longer term. Accordingly, this is something that would be immediately applicable in any future implementation of a syndromic surveillance system focusing on the effects of environmental pollutants on health.

Short-term association between environmental factors and hospital admissions due to dementia in Madrid

BACKGROUND

Spain has one of the highest proportions of dementia in the world among the population aged 60 years or over. Recent studies link various environmental factors to neurocognitive-type diseases. This study sought to analyse whether urban risk factors such as traffic noise, pollutants and heat waves might have a short-term impact on exacerbation of symptoms of dementia, leading to emergency hospital admission.

MATERIAL AND METHODS

We conducted a longitudinal ecological time-series study, with the dependent variable being the number of daily dementia-related emergency (DDE) hospital admissions to Madrid municipal hospitals (ICD-10 codes 290.0-290.2, 290.4-290.9, 294.1-294) from 01 to 01-2001 to 31-12-2009, as obtained from the Hospital Morbidity Survey (National Statistics Institute). The measures used were as follows: for noise pollution, Leqd, equivalent diurnal noise level (from 8 to 22h), and Leqn, equivalent nocturnal noise level (from 22 to 8h) in dB(A); for chemical pollution, mean daily NO2, PM2.5, PM1 as provided by the Madrid Municipal Air Quality Monitoring Grid; and lastly, maximum daily temperature (°C), as supplied by the State Meteorological Agency. Scatterplot diagrams were plotted to assess the type of functional relationship existing between the main variable of analysis and the environmental variables. The lags of the environmental variables were calculated to analyse the timing of the effect. Poisson regression models were fitted, controlling for trends and seasonalities, to quantify relative risk (RR).

RESULTS

During the study period, there were 1175 DDE hospital admissions. These admissions displayed a linear functional relationship without a threshold in the case of Leqd. The RR of DDE admissions was 1.15 (1.11-1.20) for an increase of 1dB in Leqd, with impact at lag 0. In the case of maximum daily temperature, there was a threshold temperature of 34°C, with an increase of 1°C over this threshold posing an RR of 1.19 (1.09-1.30) at lag 1. The only pollutant to show an association with DDE hospital admissions was O3 at lag 5, with an RR of 1.09 (1.04-1.15) for an increase of 10µg/m³ CONCLUSIONS: Diurnal traffic noise, heat waves and tropospheric ozone may exacerbate the symptoms of dementia to the point of requiring emergency admission to hospital. Lowering exposure levels to these environmental factors could reduce dementia-related admissions in Madrid.

A systematic review of the use of health services by immigrants and native populations

Background

Changes in migration patterns that have occurred in recent decades, both quantitative, with an increase in the number of immigrants, and qualitative, due to different causes of migration (work, family reunification, asylum seekers and refugees) require constant u pdating of the analysis of how immigrants access health services. Understanding of the existence of changes in use patterns is necessary to adapt health services to the new socio-demographic reality. The aim of this study is to describe the scientific evidence that assess the differences in the use of health services between immigrant and native populations.

Methods

A systematic review of the electronic database MEDLINE (PubMed) was conducted with a search of studies published between June 2013 and February 2016 that addressed the use of health services and compared immigrants with native populations. MeSH terms and key words comprised Health Services Needs and Demands/Accessibility/Disparities/Emigrants and Immigrants/Native/Ethnic Groups. The electronic search was supplemented by a manual search of grey literature. The following information was extracted from each publication: context of the study (place and year), characteristics of the included population (definition of immigrants and their sub-groups), methodological domains (design of the study, source of information, statistical analysis, variables of health care use assessed, measures of need, socio-economic indicators) and main results.

Results

Thirty-six publications were included, 28 from Europe and 8 from other countries. Twenty-four papers analysed the use of primary care, 17 the use of specialist services (including hospitalizations or emergency care), 18 considered several levels of care and 11 assessed mental health services. The characteristics of immigrants included country of origin, legal status, reasons for migration, length of stay, different generations and socio-demographic variables and need. In general, use of health services by the immigrants was less than or equal to the native population, although some differences between immigrants were also identified.

Conclusions

This review has identified that immigrants show a general tendency towards a lower use of health services than native populations and that there are significant differences within immigrant sub-groups in terms of their patterns of utilization. Further studies should include information categorizing and evaluating the diversity within the immigrant population.

Impact of air pollution and temperature on adverse birth outcomes: Madrid, 2001-2009

BACKGROUND/OBJECTIVES

Low birth weight (<2500 g) (LBW), premature birth (<37 weeks of gestation) (PB), and late foetal death (<24 h of life) (LFD) are causes of perinatal morbi-mortality, with short- and long-term social and economic health impacts. This study sought to identify gestational windows of susceptibility during pregnancy and to analyse and quantify the impact of different air pollutants, noise and temperature on the adverse birth outcomes.

METHODS

Time-series study to assess the impact of mean daily PM_2.5, NO₂ and O₃ (μg/m³), mean daily diurnal (Leqd) and nocturnal (Leqn) noise levels (dB(A)), maximum and minimum daily temperatures (°C) on the number of births with LBW, PB or LFD in Madrid across the period 2001-2009. We controlled for linear trend, seasonality and autoregression. Poisson regression models were fitted for quantification of the results. The final models were expressed as relative risk (RR) and population attributable risk (PAR).

RESULTS

Leqd was observed to have the following impacts in LBW: at onset of gestation, in the second trimester and in the week of birth itself. NO₂ had an impact in the second trimester. In the case of PB, the following: Leqd in the second trimester, Leqn in the week before birth and PM_2.5 in the second trimester. In the case of LFD, impacts were observed for both PM_2.5 in the third trimester, and minimum temperature. O₃ proved significant in the first trimester for LBW and PB, and in the second trimester for LFD.

CONCLUSIONS

Pollutants concentrations, noise and temperature influenced the weekly average of new-borns with LBW, PB and LFD in Madrid. Special note should be taken of the effect of diurnal noise on LBW across the entire pregnancy. The exposure of pregnant population to the environmental factors analysed should therefore be controlled with a view to reducing perinatal morbi-mortality.

Effect of Environmental Factors on Low Weight in Non-Premature Births: A Time Series Analysis

OBJECTIVE

Exposure to pollutants during pregnancy has been related to adverse birth outcomes. LBW can give rise to lifelong impairments. Prematurity is the leading cause of LBW, yet few studies have attempted to analyse how environmental factors can influence LBW in infants who are not premature. This study therefore sought to analyse the influence of air pollution, noise levels and temperature on LBW in non-premature births in Madrid during the period 2001-2009.

METHODS

Ecological time-series study to assess the impact of PM2.5, NO2 and O3 concentrations, noise levels, and temperatures on LBW among non-premature infants across the period 2001-2009. Our analysis extended to infants having birth weights of 1,500 g to 2,500 g (VLBW) and less than 1,500 g (ELBW). Environmental variables were lagged until 37 weeks with respect to the date of birth, and cross-correlation functions were used to identify explaining lags. Results were quantified using Poisson regression models.

RESULTS

Across the study period 298,705 births were registered in Madrid, 3,290 of which had LBW; of this latter total, 1,492 were non-premature. PM2.5 was the only pollutant to show an association with the three variables of LBW in non-premature births. This association occurred at around the third month of gestation for LBW and VLBW (LBW: lag 23 and VLBW: lag 25), and at around the eighth month of gestation for ELBW (lag 6). Leqd was linked to LBW at lag zero. The RR of PM2.5 on LBW was 1.01 (1.00 1.03). The RR of Leqd on LBW was 1.09 (0.99 1.19)(p<0.1).

CONCLUSIONS

The results obtained indicate that PM2.5 had influence on LBW. The adoption of measures aimed at reducing the number of vehicles would serve to lower pregnant women's exposure. In the case of noise should be limited the exposure to high levels during the final weeks of pregnancy.

Mortality attributable to extreme temperatures in Spain: A comparative analysis by city

BACKGROUND

The Low Temperature Days (LTD) have attracted far less attention than that of High Temperature Days (HTD), though its impact on mortality is at least comparable. This lower degree of attention may perhaps be due to the fact that its influence on mortality is less pronounced and longer-term, and that there are other concomitant infectious winters factors. In a climate-change scenario, the studies undertaken to date report differing results. The aim of this study was to analyse mortality attributable to both thermal extremes in Spain's 52 provinces across the period 2000-2009, and estimate the related economic cost to show the benefit or "profitability" of implementing prevention plans against LTD.

METHODS

Previous studies enabled us: to obtain the maximum daily temperature above which HTD occurred and the minimum daily temperature below which LTD occurred in the 52 provincial capitals analysed across the same study period; and to calculate the relative and attributable risks (%) associated with daily mortality in each capital. These measures of association were then used to make different calculations to obtain the daily mean mortality attributable to both thermal extremes. To this end, we obtained a summary of the number of degrees whereby the temperature exceeded (excess °C) or fell short (deficit °C) of the threshold temperature for each capital, and calculated the respective number of extreme temperatures days. The economic estimates rated the prevention plans as being 68% effective.

RESULTS

Over the period considered, the number of HTD (4373) was higher than the number of LTD (3006) for Spain as a whole. Notwithstanding this, in every provincial capital the mean daily mortality attributable to heat was lower (3deaths/day) than that attributable to cold (3.48deaths/day). In terms of the economic impact of the activation of prevention plans against LTD, these could be assumed to avoid 2.37 deaths on each LTD, which translated as a saving of €0.29M. Similarly, in the case of heat, 2.04 deaths could be assumed to be avoided each day on which the prevention plan against HTD was activated, amounting to a saving of €0.25M. While the economic cost of cold-related mortality across the ten-year period 2000-2009 was €871.7M, that attributable to heat could be put at €1093.2M.

CONCLUSION

The effect of extreme temperatures on daily mortality was similar across the study period for Spain overall. The lower number of days with LTD meant, however, that daily cold-related mortality was higher than daily heat-related mortality, thereby making prevention plans against LTD more "profitable" prevention plans against HTD in terms of avoidable mortality.

Effect of heat waves on morbidity and mortality due to Parkinson's disease in Madrid: A time-series analysis

BACKGROUND

Parkinson's disease (PD) is one of the factors which are associated with a higher risk of mortality during heat waves. The use of certain neuroleptic medications to control some of this disease's complications would appear to be related to an increase in heat-related mortality.

OBJECTIVE

To analyse the relationship and quantify the short-term effect of high temperatures during heat wave episodes in Madrid on daily mortality and PD-related hospital admissions.

METHODS

We used an ecological time-series study and fit Poisson regression models. We analysed the daily number of deaths due to PD and the number of daily PD-related emergency hospital admissions in the city of Madrid, using maximum daily temperature (°C) as the main environmental variable and chemical air pollution as covariates. We controlled for trend, seasonalities, and the autoregressive nature of the series.

RESULTS

There was a maximum daily temperature of 30°C at which PD-related admissions were at a minimum. Similarly, a temperature of 34°C coincides with an increase in the number of admissions. For PD-related admissions, the Relative Risk (RR) for every increase of 1°C above the threshold temperature was 1.13 IC95%:(1.03-1.23) at lags 1 and 5; and for daily PD-related mortality, the RR was 1.14 IC95%:(1.01-1.28) at lag 3.

CONCLUSION

Our results indicate that suffering from PD is a risk factor that contributes to the excess morbidity and mortality associated with high temperatures, and is relevant from the standpoint of public health prevention plans.

Geographical variation in relative risks associated with cold waves in Spain: The need for a cold wave prevention plan

In general, there are few studies that analyse the impact of low temperatures on mortality and fewer still that use cold-wave-definition thresholds based on epidemiological and non-climatological criteria. Such a threshold definition, which took into account population features such as socio-economic and demographic characteristics, made it possible for a specific threshold temperature to be obtained for each of Spain's 52 provincial capitals in this study. Using generalised linear models with the Poisson regression link, and controlling for trend, autocorrelations and seasonalities of the series, and influenza epidemics, we obtained the impact of low temperatures on mortality in each provincial capital by calculating the relative risks (RRs) and attributable risks (ARs) for natural as well as circulatory and respiratory causes. The study showed higher minimum temperature thresholds in coastal areas, and an overall impact of cold on mortality in Spain due to natural causes RR=1.13 (95% CI: 1.11-1.16), circulatory causes RR=1.18 (95% CI: 1.15-1.22) and respiratory causes RR=1.24 (95% CI: 1.20-1.29) slightly greater than that obtained to date for heat. From a public health standpoint, there is a need for specific cold wave prevention plans at a regional level which would enable mortality attributable to low temperatures to be reduced. These plans have shown themselves to be effective in decreasing heat-related mortality, and we feel that they are essential for reducing cold-related effects on morbidity and mortality.

Assessing Comorbidities and service use among patients with benzodiazepine abuse

Prior studies have identified that individuals with comorbid substance use disorder and mental health disorder are at a greater risk of benzodiazepine abuse compared to individuals that present with mental health disorder without an accompanying substance use disorder. These studies were conducted in predominantly white populations, and little is known if the same associations are seen in safety net health care networks. Also, the literature is mixed as to whether or not psychiatrists’ prescription of benzodiazepines places individuals at undue risk of benzodiazepine abuse.

We use 2013–2015 electronic health record data from a Boston healthcare system. Patients with benzodiazapene abuse were identified if they had received treatment under the ICD-9 code 304.1. Benzodiazepine abuse was compared between patients with only mental illness and patients with existing comorbid substance and mental health disorder, in unadjusted comparisons and adjusted regression models. Covariates in regression models were used to identify subgroups at higher risk of benzodiazepine abuse.

Individuals with benzodiazepine abuse had higher rates of emergency room and inpatient use than patients with other mental health and/or substance use disorders. Those with comorbid substance and mental disorder were significantly more likely than individuals with mental or substance use disorder alone to abuse benzodiazepines (P < .01). Among those with benzodiazepine abuse, 93.3% were diagnosed with a mental illness, 75.6% were diagnosed with a substance use disorder (other than benzodiazepine), and 64.4% had comorbid anxiety disorder and substance use disorder. These analyses suggest that patients with benzodiazepine abuse have complex presentations and intensive service use.

Disclosure of interest

The authors have not supplied their declaration of competing interest.

Co-occurrence of PTSD and cardiovascular disease among ethnic/racial groups in the United States

Introduction

Some inconsistent evidence indicates experiences of trauma and the presence of symptoms of PTSD are associated with increased risk of cardiovascular diseases. This relation has rarely been explored with community samples including participants with PTSD symptoms or who fulfill criteria for PTSD disorders.

Objectives

We identify those with a high number of PTSD symptoms and those fulfilling criteria for PTSD are more likely to have CVD than those without a PTSD syndrome or diagnosis. We examine rates of mental health access for those with PTSD and CVD.

Methods

We use Collaborative Psychiatric Epidemiology Surveys (CPES) to examine differences in trauma/PTSD prevalence and the association of prior trauma exposure and PTSD diagnoses with CVD (n = 13,286). CIDI was used to make psychiatric diagnoses and medical data was acquired regarding onset and severity of CVD.

Results

Individuals with prior exposure to trauma and PTSD diagnoses had twice the likelihood of developing a cardiovascular disease as those without trauma exposure [OR = 1.77, 95% CI (1.0, 2.94)]. Having a PTSD diagnosis is a significant predictor of having a CVD for individuals who experienced a traumatic event.

The probability of developing a CVD was higher when patients had prior diagnosis of substance abuse [OR = 1.36, 95% CI (1.11, 1.65)] or mental health disorders [OR = 1.43, 95% CI (1.10, 1.87) for depression; OR = 1.33, 95% CI (1.04, 1.69) for anxiety]. Men were almost twice as likely as women to be diagnosed with a CVD [OR = 1.67, 95% CI (1.37, 2.00)].

Conclusions

Exposure to trauma and the presence of PTSD symptoms are significantly associated with CVD.

Disclosure of interest

The authors have not supplied their declaration of competing interest.

Short term effect of air pollution, noise and heat waves on preterm births in Madrid (Spain)

BACKGROUND

Preterm birth (PTB) refers to delivery before 37 weeks of gestation and represents the leading cause of early-life mortality and morbidity in developed countries. PTB can lead to serious infant health outcomes. The etiology of PTB remains uncertain, but epidemiologic studies have consistently shown elevated risks with different environmental variables as traffic-related air pollution (TRAP). The aim of the study was to evaluate with time series methodology the short-term effect of air pollutants, noise levels and ambient temperature on the number of births and preterm births occurred in Madrid City during the 2001-2009 period.

METHODS

A time-series analysis was performed to assess the short term impact of daily mean concentrations (µg/m(3)) of PM2.5 and PM10, O3 and NO2. Measurements of Acoustic Pollution in dB(A) analyzed were: Leqd, equivalent diurnal noise level and Leqn, equivalent nocturnal noise level. Maximum and Minimum daily temperature (°C), mean Humidity in the air (%) and Atmospheric Pressure (HPa), were included too. Linear trends, seasonality, as well as the autoregressive nature of the series itself were controlled. We added as covariate the day of the week too. Autoregressive over-dispersed Poisson regression models were performed and the environmental variables were included with short-term lags (from 0 to 7 days) in reference to the date of birth. Firstly, simple models for the total number of births and preterm births were done separately. In a second stage, a model for total births adjusted for preterm births was performed.

RESULTS

A total of 298,705 births were analyzed. The results of the final models were expressed in relative risks (RRs) for interquartile increase. We observed evidence of a short term effect at Lag 0, for the following environmental variables analyzed, PM2.5 (RR: 1.020; 95% CI:(1.008 1.032)) and O3 (RR: 1.012; 95% CI:(1.002 1.022)) concentrations and Leqd (RR: 1.139; 95% CI:( (1.124 1.154)) for the total number of births, and besides these, heat temperatures at Lag 1 (RR: 1.055; 95% CI:( (1.018 1.092)) on preterm births in Madrid City during the studied period. In the model adjusted for preterm births, similar RR was obtained for the same environmental variables.

CONCLUSIONS

Especially PM2.5, diurnal noise levels and O3 have a short-term impact on total births and heat temperatures on preterm births in Madrid City during the studied period. Our results suggest that, given the widespread exposure of the population to the environmental factors analyzed and the possible effects on long-term health associated to low birth weight. There is a clear need to minimize this exposure through the decrease of air pollution and noise levels and through the behavior modification of the mothers.

Geographical variation in relative risks associated with heat: Update of Spain's Heat Wave Prevention Plan

A decade after the implementation of prevention plans designed to minimise the impact of high temperatures on health, some countries have decided to update these plans in order to improve the weakness detected in these ten years of operation. In the case of Spain, this update has fundamentally consisted of changing the so-called "threshold" or "trigger" temperatures used to activate the plan, by switching from temperature values based on climatological criteria to others obtained by epidemiological studies conducted on a provincial scale. This study reports the results of these "trigger" temperatures for each of Spain's 52 provincial capitals, as well as the impact of heat on mortality by reference to the relative risks (RRs) and attributable risks (ARs) calculated for natural as well as circulatory and respiratory causes. The results obtained for threshold temperatures and RRs show a more uniform behaviour pattern than those obtained using temperature values based on climatological criteria; plus a clear decrease in RRs of heat-associated mortality due to the three causes considered, at both a provincial and regional level as well as for Spain as a whole. The updating of prevention plans is regarded as crucial for optimising the operation of these plans in terms of reducing the effect of high temperatures on population health.