Estimated glomerular filtration rate better predicts 30-day mortality after non-cardiac surgery than serum creatinine: a retrospective analysis of 92,888 patients

Shock index creatinine: a new predictor of mortality in acute coronary syndrome patients

BACKGROUND

The Shock Index Creatinine (SIC) scoring is a recently developed tool for risk stratification patients. These updated scoring was already used in ST-Elevation Myocardial Infarction (STEMI) patients. However its utility in predicting outcomes for patients with Acute Coronary Syndrome (ACS) remains unclear. This study aims to evaluate and update the current SIC score to predict in-hospital mortality among patients with ACS.

PATIENTS AND METHODS

A retrospective cohort, Single-centered study enrolled 1349 ACS patients aged ≥ 18 years old diagnosed with ACS was conducted between January 2018 to January 2022 who met for inclusion and exclusion criteria. Study subjects were analyzed for in-hospital mortality and evaluated using binary linear regression analysis. The area under the curve (AUC) of SIC score was obtain to predict the sensitivity and specificity.

RESULTS

Multivariate analysis showed that SIC score was significantly associated with in-hospital mortality. High SIC score (SIC ≥ 25) had significantly higher in-hospital mortality (p < 0.001) with odds ratio for (95% CIs) were 2.655 (1.6-4.31). Receiver operating characteristics (ROC) curve analysis determine the predictive power of SIC score for in-hospital mortality. SIC had an acceptable predictive value for in-hospital mortality (AUC = 0.789, 95% CI: 0.748-0.831, p < 0.001). The SIC score for sensitivity and specificity were, respectively, 71.5% and 74.4%, with optimal cutoff of SIC ≥ 25.

CONCLUSION

SIC had acceptable predictive value for in-hospital mortality in patients with all ACS spectrums. SIC was a useful parameter for predicting in-hospital mortality, particularly with a score ≥ 25. This is the first study to evaluate SIC in all spectrums of ACS.

Perioperative Management and Outcomes of Hip Fracture Patients with Advanced Chronic Kidney Disease

Aims

To explore clinical characteristics, perioperative management and outcomes of Hip Fracture patients with advanced Chronic Kidney Disease (HF-aCKD) compared to the general Hip Fracture population without aCKD (HF-G) within a large volume tertiary hospital in Western Australia.

Methods

Retrospective chart review of patients admitted with hip fracture (HF) to a single large volume tertiary hospital registered on Australian and New Zealand Hip Fracture Registry (ANZHFR). We compared baseline demographic and clinical frailty scale (CFS) of HF-aCKD (n = 74), defined as eGFR < 30 mls/min/1.73 m2, with HF-G (n = 452) and determined their outcomes at 120 days.

Results

We identified 74 (6.97%) HF patients with aCKD. General demographics were similar in HF-aCKD and HF-G populations. 120-days mortality for HF-aCKD was double that of HF-G population (34% vs 17%, P = .001). For dialysis patients, 120-days mortality was triple that of HF-G population (57%). Except for the fit category of HF-aCKD group, higher CFS was associated with higher 120-days mortality in both groups.  Of all HF-aCKD patients, 96% had operative intervention and 48% received blood transfusion. There were no new starts to dialysis peri-operatively. Each point reduction in eGFR below 12 mL/min/1.73 m2 was associated with 3% increased probability of death in hospital.

Conclusions

120-days mortality was double in HF-aCKD and triple in HF-dialysis that of the HF-G within our institution. Clinical frailty scale can be useful in predicting mortality after HF in frail aCKD patients. High rate of blood transfusions was observed in HF-aCKD group. Further studies with larger HF-aCKD numbers are required to explore these associations in detail.

Association between intraoperative hyperglycemia and postoperative end-organ dysfunctions after cardiac surgery: a retrospective observational study

PURPOSE

Hyperglycemia has been associated with postoperative morbidity in patients who undergo cardiac surgery. However, it remains unclear whether the duration of hyperglycemia is as important as its magnitude in the development of postoperative end-organ dysfunction (PEOD). This retrospective study investigated the hypothesis that the intraoperative blood glucose (BG) exposure index (GE index), calculated by the product of the magnitude and duration of BG concentration ≥ 180 mg/dL, which is an integration of the severity and duration of hyperglycemia, is associated with the incidence of PEOD in patients undergoing cardiac surgery with cardiopulmonary bypass.

METHODS

The primary outcome in this study was PEOD within 72 h of surgery, which was defined as a composite of postoperative acute kidney injury, delirium, myocardial injury, and prolonged mechanical ventilation. The GE index (the magnitude of BG concentration deviation ≥ 180 mg/dL [Formula: see text] duration of BG concentration ≥ 180 mg/dL) of each patient was calculated based on the intraoperative BG concentration. The relationship between the GE index and the primary outcome was examined via logistic regression model with adjustment for potential confounders.

RESULTS

Within 72 h of surgery, 301 patients (54.5%) developed PEOD. PEOD was more common in patients with greater GE index quartiles (first versus third quartile; adjusted odds ratio, 5.65, 95% confidence interval (95% CI), 2.94-10.90; P < 0.001; first versus forth quartile, adjusted odds ratio, 20.80; 95% CI, 8.01-54.00; P < 0.001).

CONCLUSION

In patients undergoing cardiac surgery with cardiopulmonary bypass, the GE index was an independent predictor of PEOD.

Shock Index-C: An Updated and Simple Risk-Stratifying Tool in ST-Segment Elevation Myocardial Infarction

Background: Shock index (heart rate/systolic blood pressure, SI) is a simple scale with prognostic value in patients with ST-segment elevation myocardial infarction (STEMI) undergoing percutaneous coronary intervention (PCI). The present study introduces an updated version of SI that includes renal function.

Methods: A total of 1,851 consecutive patients with STEMI undergoing PCI were retrospectively included at Cardiac Care Unit in Guangdong Provincial People's Hospital and divided into two groups according to their admission time: derivation database (from January 2010 to December 2013, n = 1,145) and validation database (from January 2014 to April 2016, n = 706). Shock Index-C (SIC) was calculated as (SI × 100)–estimated CCr. Calibration was evaluated using the Hosmer-Lemeshow statistic. The predictive power of SIC was evaluated using receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curve analysis.

Results: The predictive value and calibration of SIC for in-hospital death was excellent in derivation [area under the curve (AUC) = 0.877, p < 0.001; Hosmer-Lemeshow chi-square = 3.95, p = 0.861] and validation cohort (AUC = 0.868, p < 0.001; Hosmer-Lemeshow chi-square = 5.01, p = 0.756). SIC exhibited better predictive power for in-hospital events than SI (AUC: 0.874 vs. 0.759 for death; 0.837 vs. 0.651 for major adverse clinical events [MACEs]; 0.707 vs. 0.577 for contrast-induced acute kidney injury [CI-AKI]; and 0.732 vs. 0.590 for bleeding, all p < 0.001). Cumulative 1-year mortality was significantly higher in the upper SIC tertile (log-rank = 131.89, p < 0.001).

Conclusion: SIC was an effective predictor of poor prognosis and may have potential as a novel and simple risk stratification tool for patients with STEMI undergoing PCI.

Acute Kidney Injury in Cardiac Surgery Patients: Role of Glomerular Filtration Rate and Fat-Free Mass

Summary. Background.

eGFR (estimated glomerular filtration rate) formulas may be inaccurate in overweight cardiac surgery patients, overestimating the kidney reserve. The aim of this study was to modify the eGFR formulas and to determine whether the modified eGFR is a more accurate predictor of acute kidney injury (AKI).

Materials and methods

The patients were assigned into 4 BMI groups as follows: normal weight (18.5– 25 kg/m²), pre-obesity (25–30 kg/m²), class I obese (30–35 kg/m²), class II and III obese (≥35 kg/m²). Cockcroft– Gault (CG) eGFR formula was modified by using the fat-free mass (FFM) derived from bioelectrical impedance. ROC-AUC curves were analyzed to identify the accuracy of the eGFR formulas (CG, CG modified with FFM, Mayo Clinic Quadratic equation, CKD-EPI, MDRD) to predict the AKI in each group.

Results

Although all of the used equations showed similar predictive power in the normal weight and overweight category, Mayo formula had the highest AUC in predicting the occurrence of AKI (ROC-AUC 0.717 and 0.624, p<0.05). However, in the group of patients with class I obesity, only the CG formula modified with a fat-free mass appeared to be predictive of postoperative AKI (ROC-AUC 0.631 p<0.05). None of the equations were accurate in the group of BMI (>35 kg/m²).

Conclusions

eGFR is a poor predictor of AKI, especially in the obese patients undergoing cardiac surgery. The only equation with a moderate predictive power for the class I obese patients was the CG formula modified with the fat-free mass.

Estimated glomerular filtration rate and postoperative mortality in patients undergoing non-cardiac and non-neuron surgery: a single-center retrospective study

Background

There is limited evidence to clarify the specific relationship between preoperative estimated glomerular filtration rate (preop-eGFR) and postoperative 30-day mortality in Asian patients undergoing non-cardiac and non-neuron surgery. We aimed to investigate details of this relationship.

Methods

We reanalyzed a retrospective analysis of the clinical records of 90,785 surgical patients at the Singapore General Hospital from January 1, 2012 to October 31, 2016. The main outcome was postoperative 30-day mortality.

Results

The average age of these recruited patients was 53.96 ± 16.88 years, of which approximately 51.64% were female. The mean of preop-eGFR distribution was 84.45 ± 38.56 mL/min/1.73 m². Multivariate logistic regression analysis indicated that preop-eGFR was independently associated with 30-day mortality (adjusted odds ratio: 0.992; 95% confidence interval [CI] 0.990–0.995; P < 0.001). A U-shaped relationship was detected between preop-eGFR and 30-day mortality with an inflection point of 98.688 (P for log likelihood ratio test < 0.001). The effect sizes and confidence intervals on the right and left sides of the inflection point were 1.013 (1.007 to 1.019) [P < 0.0001] and 0.984 (0.981 to 0.987) [P < 0.0001], respectively. Preoperative comorbidities such as congestive heart failure (CHF), type 1 diabetes, ischemic heart disease (IHD), and anemia were associated with the odds ratio of preop-eGFR to 30-day mortality (interaction P < 0.05).

Discussion

The relationship between preop-eGFR and 30-day mortality is U-shaped. The recommended preop-eGFR at which the rate of the 30-day mortality was lowest was 98.688 mL/min/1.73 m².

The association of estimated glomerular filtration rate with outcomes following infrainguinal bypass for peripheral arterial disease

OBJECTIVE

Chronic kidney disease (CKD) is a recognized predictor of long-term survival, frequently coexisting with peripheral arterial disease (PAD). Estimated glomerular filtration rate (eGFR) is a more accurate marker of renal function than creatinine. This study sought to determine the graded impact of CKD, defined by eGFR, on infrainguinal lower extremity bypass (LEB) outcomes.

METHODS

This retrospective study examined 44,332 patients from the Vascular Quality Initiative database who underwent LEB between January 2003 and November 2019. The GFR was estimated using the Modification of Diet in Renal Disease equation. Multivariable logistic regression was used to study perioperative mortality and Kaplan-Meier survival estimation and multivariable Cox regression were used to evaluate 5-year mortality, 1-year major amputation, and major amputation/death.

RESULTS

The 30-day mortality odds was increased for CKD 3 (odds ratio [OR], 1.58; 95% confidence interval [CI], 1.32-1.91; P < .001) and CKD 5 (OR, 3.08; 95% CI, 2.45-3.87; P < .001) relative to CKD 1 to 2. Comparing CKD stages 3, 4, and 5 with CKD 1 and 2, there was a stepwise increase in the adjusted hazard of 5-year mortality (hazard ratio [HR], 1.18; 95% CI, 1.09-1.27; P < .001), (HR, 1.73; 95% CI; 1.47-2.03; P < .001) and (HR, 2.58; 95% CI, 2.33-3.84; P < .001), respectively. Although the risk of 1-year death or major amputation did not differ for CKD 3 compared with CKD 1, this was 50% higher for CKD 4 (HR, 1.50; 95% CI, 1.26-1.78; P < .001) and doubled for CKD 5 (HR, 2.07; 95% CI, 1.87-2.29; P < .001) compared with CKD 1 and 2. The adjusted HR for major amputation in 1 year was 0.81 (95% CI, 0.71-0.92; P = .002), 1.14 (95% CI, 0.84-1.54; P = .396) and 1.56 (95% CI,1.31-1.84; P < .001) for CKD 3, 4, and 5, respectively, compared with CKD 1 and 2.

CONCLUSIONS

The estimated GFR is a useful predictor of postoperative mortality, overall survival, and/or amputation after LEB in patients with PAD. It should be considered in the preoperative risk-benefit analysis process to guide patient selection in the population with concomitant PAD and CKD being considered for LEB.

Effects of physical activity on the progression of diabetic nephropathy: a meta-analysis

Background: Diabetic nephropathy (DN) is an important microvascular complication of diabetes. Physical activity (PA) is part of a healthy lifestyle for diabetic patients; however, the role of PA in DN has not been clarified. Our aim was to conduct a meta-analysis to explore the association between PA and DN risk.

Methods: PubMed, Embase, Cochrane Library and Web of Science were systematically searched for articles examining PA in diabetic patients and its effect on renal function. Standardized mean differences (SMDs) and odds ratios (ORs) with 95% confidence intervals (CIs) were calculated. The study protocol is registered with PROSPERO (CRD42020191379).

Results: A total of 38991 participants were identified from 18 studies. The results indicated that PA was associated with increases in the glomerular filtration rate (SMD = 0.01, 95% CI = [0.02–0.17]) and decreases in the urinary albumin creatinine ratio (SMD = −0.53, 95% CI: −0.72 to −0.34), rate of microalbuminuria (OR = 0.61, 95% CI = [0.46–0.81]), rate of acute kidney injury (OR = 0.02, 95% CI = [0.01–0.04]), rate of renal failure (OR = 0.71, 95% CI = [0.52–0.97]) and risk of DN in patients with Type 1 diabetes (OR = 0.67, 95% CI = [0.51–0.89]).

Conclusions: This meta-analysis indicated that PA is effective for improving DN and slowing its progression; however, more high-quality randomized controlled trials are required on this topic.

Preoperative atrial fibrillation in association with reduced haemoglobin predicts increased 30-d mortality after cardiac surgery

OBJECTIVES

Atrial fibrillation is the most common arrhythmia occurring after cardiac surgery. Less attention has been focused on preoperative atrial fibrillation and anaemia as risk factors for mortality after cardiac surgery. The aim of this study was to determine preoperative risk factors for 30-d mortality after open-heart surgery. Design. The study population consisted of 2015 patients (73.4% men; mean age 68 years) undergoing coronary artery bypass grafting (CABG) (52.0%), aortic valve replacement (AVR) (18.6%), AVR and CABG (10.0%), mitral valve plasty or replacement (14.0%), and AVR and aortic root reconstruction (ARR) (5.5%) in Kuopio University Hospital from January 2013 to December 2016. Univariate and multivariate Cox proportional hazards models were used for statistical analyses. Kaplan-Meier survival curves were generated. Results. Total 30-d mortality was 1.8%. By Cox regression analysis, predictors of 30-d mortality (hazard ratio [HR] [95% confidence interval [CI]]) included female gender (1.95 [1.00-3.77]), preoperative atrial fibrillation, (2.38 [1.12-5.03]) reduced haemoglobin level (3.40 [1.47-7.90]), and pulmonary congestion (3.16 [1.52-6.55]). The combination of preoperative reduced haemoglobin and preoperative atrial fibrillation was a strong predictor (12.37 [4.40-34.77], p < .001). Estimated glomerular filtration rate (eGFR) predicted 30-d mortality in univariate models but was not an independent predictor in multivariate models. Conclusions. According to the main findings of our study, the combination of preoperative atrial fibrillation and reduced haemoglobin level substantially increase the risk of 30-d mortality after cardiac surgery. Identification of high-risk patients pre-operatively could help to make optimal clinical decisions for timing of operation and perioperative treatment.

Guidelines for Perioperative Care in Cytoreductive Surgery (CRS) with or without hyperthermic IntraPEritoneal chemotherapy (HIPEC): Enhanced recovery after surgery (ERAS®) Society Recommendations - Part I: Preoperative and intraoperative management

BACKGROUND

Enhanced recovery after surgery (ERAS) pathways have been shown to considerably reduce complications, length of stay and costs after most of surgical procedures by standardised application of best evidence-based perioperative care. The aim was to elaborate dedicated recommendations for cytoreductive surgery (CRS) ± hyperthermic intraperitoneal chemotherapy (HIPEC) in a two-part series of guidelines based on expert consensus. The present part I of the guidelines highlights preoperative and intraoperative management.

METHODS

The core group assembled a multidisciplinary panel of 24 experts involved in peritoneal surface malignancy surgery representing the fields of general surgery (n = 12), gynaecological surgery (n = 6), and anaesthesia (n = 6). Experts systematically reviewed and summarized the available evidence on 72 identified perioperative care items, following the GRADE (grading of recommendations, assessment, development, evaluation) system. Final consensus (defined as ≥50%, or ≥70% of weak/strong recommendations combined) was reached by a standardised 2-round Delphi process, regarding the strength of recommendations.

RESULTS

Response rates were 100% for both Delphi rounds. Quality of evidence was evaluated high, moderate low and very low, for 15 (21%), 26 (36%), 29 (40%) and 2 items, respectively. Consensus was reached for 71/72(98.6%) items. Strong recommendations were defined for 37 items, No consensus could be reached regarding the preemptive use of fresh frozen plasma.

CONCLUSION

The present ERAS recommendations for CRS±HIPEC are based on a standardised expert consensus process providing clinicians with valuable guidance. There is an urgent need to produce high quality studies for CRS±HIPEC and to prospectively evaluate recommendations in clinical practice.

Vasopressor Infusion During Prone Spine Surgery and Acute Renal Injury: A Retrospective Cohort Analysis

BACKGROUND

Hypotension is associated with acute kidney injury, but vasopressors used to treat hypotension may also compromise renal function. We therefore tested the hypothesis that vasopressor infusion during complex spine surgery is not associated with impaired renal function.

METHODS

In this retrospective cohort analysis, we considered adults who had complex spine surgery between January 2005 and September 2014 at the Cleveland Clinic Main Campus. Our primary outcome was postoperative estimated glomerular filtration rate. Secondarily, we evaluated renal function using Acute Kidney Injury Network criteria. We obtained data for 1814 surgeries, including 689 patients (38%) who were given intraoperative vasopressors infusion for ≥30 minutes and 1125 patients (62%) who were not. Five hundred forty patients with and 540 patients without vasopressor infusions were well matched across 32 potential confounding variables.

RESULTS

In matched patients, vasopressor infusions lasted an average of 173 ± 100 minutes (SD) and were given a median dose (1st quintile, 3rd quintile) of 3.4-mg (1.5, 6.7 mg) phenylephrine equivalents. Mean arterial pressure and the amounts of hypotension were similar in each matched group. The postoperative difference in mean estimated glomerular filtration rate in patients with and without vasopressor infusions was only 0.8 mL/min/1.73 m (95% CI, -0.6 to 2.2 mL/min/1.73 m) (P = .28). Intraoperative vasopressor infusion was also not associated with increased odds of augmented acute kidney injury stage.

CONCLUSIONS

Clinicians should not avoid typical perioperative doses of vasopressors for fear of promoting kidney injury. Tolerating hypotension to avoid vasopressor use would probably be a poor strategy.

The relationship of preoperative estimated glomerular filtration rate and outcomes after cardiovascular surgery in patients with normal serum creatinine: a retrospective cohort study

Background

Although serum creatinine concentration has been traditionally used as an index of renal function in clinical practice, it is considered relatively inaccurate, especially in patients with mild renal dysfunction. This study investigated the usefulness of preoperative estimated glomerular filtration rate (eGFR) in predicting complications after cardiovascular surgery in patients with normal serum creatinine concentrations.

Methods

This study included 2208 adults undergoing elective cardiovascular surgery. Preoperative eGFR was calculated using Chronic Kidney Disease Epidemiology Collaboration equations. The relationships between preoperative eGFR and 90 day postoperative composite major complications were analyzed, including 90 day all-cause mortality, major adverse cardiac and cerebrovascular events, severe acute kidney injury, respiratory and gastrointestinal complications, wound infection, sepsis, and multi-organ failure.

Results

Of the 2208 included patients, 185 (8.4%) had preoperative eGFR < 60 mL/min/1.73 m² and 328 (14.9%) experienced postoperative major complications. Multivariable logistic regression analyses showed that preoperatively decreased eGFR was independently associated with an increased risk of composite 90 day major postoperative complications (adjusted odds ratio: 1.232; 95% confidence interval [CI]: 1.148–1.322; P <  0.001). eGFR was a better discriminator of composite 90 day major postoperative complications than serum creatinine, with estimated c-statistics of 0.724 (95% CI: 0.694–0.754) for eGFR and 0.712 (95% CI: 0.680–0.744) for serum creatinine (P = 0.008).

Conclusions

Decreased eGFR was significantly associated with an increased risk of major complications after cardiovascular surgery in patients with preoperatively normal serum creatinine concentrations.

Electronic supplementary material

The online version of this article (10.1186/s12871-019-0763-1) contains supplementary material, which is available to authorized users.

Chronic Kidney Diseases Among Patients Undergoing Elective Arthroplasty: Risk Groups and the Value of Serum Creatinine

BACKGROUND

In arthroplasty clinics, we tend to evaluate patient's kidney function looking at serum creatinine (SCr), while estimated glomerular filtration rate (eGFR) is recommended. We reported the prevalence of chronic kidney disease (CKD; eGFR <60 mL/min/1.73 m²) in different patient groups and investigated whether CKD is missed by evaluation based on SCr.

METHODS

Preoperative SCr values were used to calculate eGFR in 20,575 consecutive hip or knee arthroplasties.

RESULTS

Prevalence of CKD was 9%-12%. It was higher among older women, knee arthroplasty patients, and patients with hypertension, diabetes, or coronary disease. Using SCr instead of eGFR leads to missing CKD in up to 7% of the cases. In older women and older patients with body mass index <25 kg/m², half of CKD cases were missed.

CONCLUSION

Use of eGFR instead of SCr to detect CKD more accurately is recommended.