Sensitive time series prediction using extreme learning machine

A Novel Prediction Model: ELM-ABC for Annual GDP in the Case of SCO Countries

With the development of economic and technologies, the trend of annual Gross Domestic Product (GDP) and carbon dioxide (CO2) emission changes with time passes. The relationship between economic growth and carbon dioxide emissions is considered as one of the most important empirical relationships. In this study, we focus on the member of Shanghai Cooperation Organization, including China, Russia, India, and Pakistan and collect CO2 emission and annual GDP from 1969 to 2014. The statistical methods and tests are used to find the relationship between annual GDP and CO2 emission in these countries. Based on relationship between annual and CO2 emission, a novel multi-step prediction algorithm called Extreme Learning Machine with Artificial Bee Colony (ELM-ABC) is proposed for forecasting annual GDP based on CO2 emission and historical GDP features. According to the experimental results, it proved that the proposed model had a super forecasting ability in GDP prediction and it could predict ten-year future annual GDP for the corresponding countries. Moreover, the forecasting results showed that the annual GDP of China and Pakistan will continue to grow but growth will slow after 2025. The annual GDP in India will exhibit unstable growth. The trend of Russia will follow the pattern between 2010 and 2016.

Hybrid condition monitoring of nonlinear mechatronic system using biogeography-based optimization particle filter and optimized extreme learning machine

This paper proposes a hybrid condition monitoring approach, which integrates bond graph model-based diagnostic technique and data-driven remaining useful life (RUL) prediction, for a nonlinear mechatronic system. In this approach, various degrading faults can be considered and the physical degradation model is not required for RUL prediction. Firstly, an integrated fault signature matrix is proposed by the causal path of bicausal-bond graph model to improve fault isolation performance. After that, a biogeography-based optimization (BBO)-particle filter is developed for fault identification. For prognosis, an optimized extreme learning machine (OELM) is proposed where the hidden layer biases and input weights are optimized by BBO. The fault identification results provide data set to train the OELM for prognosis. Finally, the effectiveness of the approach is verified by simulation and experiment results.

A Hybrid Method Based on Extreme Learning Machine and Wavelet Transform Denoising for Stock Prediction

The trend prediction of the stock is a main challenge. Accidental factors often lead to short-term sharp fluctuations in stock markets, deviating from the original normal trend. The short-term fluctuation of stock price has high noise, which is not conducive to the prediction of stock trends. Therefore, we used discrete wavelet transform (DWT)-based denoising to denoise stock data. Denoising the stock data assisted us to eliminate the influences of short-term random events on the continuous trend of the stock. The denoised data showed more stable trend characteristics and smoothness. Extreme learning machine (ELM) is one of the effective training algorithms for fully connected single-hidden-layer feedforward neural networks (SLFNs), which possesses the advantages of fast convergence, unique results, and it does not converge to a local minimum. Therefore, this paper proposed a combination of ELM- and DWT-based denoising to predict the trend of stocks. The proposed method was used to predict the trend of 400 stocks in China. The prediction results of the proposed method are a good proof of the efficacy of DWT-based denoising for stock trends, and showed an excellent performance compared to 12 machine learning algorithms (e.g., recurrent neural network (RNN) and long short-term memory (LSTM)).

Towards Evaluating Proactive and Reactive Approaches on Reorganizing Human Resources in IoT-Based Smart Hospitals

Hospitals play an important role on ensuring a proper treatment of human health. One of the problems to be faced is the increasingly overcrowded patients care queues, who end up waiting for longer times without proper treatment to their health problems. The allocation of health professionals in hospital environments is not able to adapt to the demands of patients. There are times when underused rooms have idle professionals, and overused rooms have fewer professionals than necessary. Previous works have not solved this problem since they focus on understanding the evolution of doctor supply and patient demand, as to better adjust one to the other. However, they have not proposed concrete solutions for that regarding techniques for better allocating available human resources. Moreover, elasticity is one of the most important features of cloud computing, referring to the ability to add or remove resources according to the needs of the application or service. Based on this background, we introduce Elastic allocation of human resources in Healthcare environments (ElHealth) an IoT-focused model able to monitor patient usage of hospital rooms and adapt these rooms for patients demand. Using reactive and proactive elasticity approaches, ElHealth identifies when a room will have a demand that exceeds the capacity of care, and proposes actions to move human resources to adapt to patient demand. Our main contribution is the definition of Human Resources IoT-based Elasticity (i.e., an extension of the concept of resource elasticity in Cloud Computing to manage the use of human resources in a healthcare environment, where health professionals are allocated and deallocated according to patient demand). Another contribution is a cost-benefit analysis for the use of reactive and predictive strategies on human resources reorganization. ElHealth was simulated on a hospital environment using data from a Brazilian polyclinic, and obtained promising results, decreasing the waiting time by up to 96.4% and 96.73% in reactive and proactive approaches, respectively.