Climate warming and pikeperch year-class catches in the Baltic Sea

Modelling framework to evaluate societal effects of ecosystem management

The ecosystem effects of different management options can be predicted through models that simulate the ecosystem functioning under different management scenarios. Optimal management strategies are searched by simulating different management (and other, such as climate) scenarios and finding the management measures that produce desirable results. The desirability of results is often defined through the attainment of policy objectives such as good environmental/ecological status. However, this often does not account for societal consequences of the environmental status even though the consequences can be different for different stakeholder groups. In this work we introduce a method to evaluate management alternatives in the light of the experiential value of stakeholder groups, using a case study in the Baltic Sea. We use an Ecopath with Ecosim model to simulate the ecosystem responses to management and climate scenarios, and the results are judged based on objectives defined based on a stakeholder questionnaire on what aspects of the ecosystem they value or detest. The ecosystem responses and the stakeholder values are combined in a Bayesian decision support model to illustrate which management options bring the highest benefits to stakeholders, and whether different stakeholder groups benefit from different management choices. In the case study, the more moderate climate scenario and strict fisheries and nutrient loading management brought the highest benefits to all stakeholders. The method can be used to evaluate and compare the effects of different management alternatives to various stakeholder groups, if their preferences are known.

Fishing and temperature effects on the size structure of exploited fish stocks

Size structure of fish stock plays an important role in maintaining sustainability of the population. Size distribution of an exploited stock is predicted to shift toward small individuals caused by size-selective fishing and/or warming; however, their relative contribution remains relatively unexplored. In addition, existing analyses on size structure have focused on univariate size-based indicators (SBIs), such as mean length, evenness of size classes, or the upper 95-percentile of the length frequency distribution; these approaches may not capture full information of size structure. To bridge the gap, we used the variation partitioning approach to examine how the size structure (composition of size classes) responded to fishing, warming and the interaction. We analyzed 28 exploited stocks in the West US, Alaska and North Sea. Our result shows fishing has the most prominent effect on the size structure of the exploited stocks. In addition, the fish stocks experienced higher variability in fishing is more responsive to the temperature effect in their size structure, suggesting that fishing may elevate the sensitivity of exploited stocks in responding to environmental effects. The variation partitioning approach provides complementary information to univariate SBIs in analyzing size structure.

Pikeperch (Sander lucioperca (L.)) in decline: high mortality of three populations in the northern Baltic Sea

The development of three pikeperch (Sander lucioperca (L.)) populations in the northern Baltic Sea was monitored using standardized multimesh gillnets in 1995-2009. Declining trends in the abundances of pikeperch over 40 cm total length, low numbers of individuals older than 6 years, and high mortality rates were observed in all three populations. In the site with the largest commercial catches per unit area and a rapidly increased colony of great cormorants (Phalacrocorax carbo sinensis Blumenbach 1798), also the abundance of pikeperch below 40 cm total length and year-class strength showed declining trends. The adverse population level changes did not correlate with changes in water quality or eutrophication status. Together, the results suggest that in all study sites fisheries are harvesting a large proportion of the pikeperch soon after or even before reaching the maturity, and that predation from great cormorants may increase mortality of juveniles. Pikeperch is important not only for fisheries but also for ecosystem functioning, and our results point at the need for further management measures to ensure viable populations in the areas studied.