Vulnerability and impacts of climate change on forest and freshwater wetland ecosystems in Nepal: A review

Ecological vulnerability of China's Yellow River Basin: evaluation and socioeconomic driving factors

The Yellow River Basin (YRB) is a typical ecologically fragile area in both the Chinese and global contexts. This paper built a sensitivity-resilience-pressure model to evaluate the ecological vulnerability (EV) of the YRB at the grid and prefecture-level regional scales; explored the spatiotemporal characteristics of EV; and scrutinized the impacts of socioeconomic driving factors on EV. The results showed that (1) at the grid and prefecture-level regional scales, EV decreased from the upper to lower reaches, and high vulnerability was observed in the provincial capital city. Mild and severe vulnerability constituted the main EV types in the YRB. (2) The EV index of the YRB decreased from 2.71 to 2.56 in the study period, indicating that the ecological environment improved in the YRB. The slightly and lightly vulnerable areas experienced shrinking-expansion changes, and the overall areas of these two EV types showed expanding trends, while the areal changes and overall trends of the moderately, severely, and extremely vulnerable areas were contrary to those of the slightly and lightly vulnerable areas. (3) The impacts of socioeconomic driving factors on EV dynamically strengthened with the improvement of the socioeconomic level. After considering the interactions of all socioeconomic factors, the explanatory power of the spatial differentiation of EV was enhanced, and the influence of these factors became more prominent.

Predicting suitable habitat of swamp deer (Rucervus duvaucelii) across the Western Terai Arc Landscape of Nepal

Over the last few years, intensifying human impact and the deterioration of natural habitats have severely restricted the global distribution of large herbivores. Rucervus duvaucelii, commonly recognized as the swamp deer, is a habitat-specialist endemic large herbivore of the Indian Subcontinent. It is classified as vulnerable by the IUCN and listed in CITES Appendix I due to a steep decline in its population, which is primarily due to anthropogenic causes. In Nepal, the last remaining population of this species is confined to limited pocket areas within the western Terai Arc Landscape. We explored potential habitat for swamp deer across this landscape using species distribution modelling through the MaxEnt algorithm by using 173 field-verified presence points alongside six anthropogenic, four topographic, and four vegetation-related variables. Our study found that out of the total study area (9207 km²), only 6% (590 km²) was suitable for swamp deer. Approximately 45% of suitable habitat was incorporated within protected areas, with Shuklaphanta National Park harboring the largest habitat patch. The suitability of habitat was discovered to be positively associated with low-elevation areas, areas near water sources, and areas far from settlements, implying the need to conserve water sources and minimize the extension of anthropogenic pressure for their long-term conservation. Additionally, we suggest the implications of a swamp deer-centric conservation strategy, with an emphasis on increasing connectivity through the corridors and landscape-level population connectivity through trans-boundary conservation initiatives between Nepal and India. Moreover, considering large herbivores' high vulnerability to extinction, similar researche incorporating anthropogenic factors is of the utmost importance to produce vital information on habitat suitability for conserving other regionally and globally endemic, habitat-specialized herbivores.

Local reports of climate change impacts in Sierra Nevada, Spain: sociodemographic and geographical patterns

While we know that climate change is having different impacts on various ecosystems and regions of the world, we know less how the perception of such impacts varies within a population. In this study, we examine patterns of individual variation in climate change impacts reports using data from a sample (n = 238) drawn from 33 mountainous municipalities of Sierra Nevada, Spain. Sierra Nevada inhabitants report multiple climate change impacts, being the most frequently reported changes in snowfall and snow cover, abundance of terrestrial fauna, freshwater availability, and extreme temperatures. Reports of climate change impacts vary according to informants' sociodemographic characteristics and geographical location. People with life-long bonds with the environment and higher connection and dependence upon ecosystem services report more climate change impacts than other informants, as do people with lower level of schooling. We also found that reports of climate change impacts vary according to geographic areas, which reinforces the idea that climate change generates differentiated impacts even at small geographical scales. Understanding intracultural variation in reports of climate change impacts not only gives an enriched picture of the human dimensions of climate change but might also help design more targeted mitigation and adaptation responses.

Supplementary Information

The online version contains supplementary material available at 10.1007/s10113-022-01981-5.

Himalayan ecosystem services and climate change driven agricultural frontiers: a scoping review

Climate change, rising temperatures, snow melts and more frequent droughts and floods are disproportionately affecting food and water security, habitat health, and agricultural productivity in the Himalayan region. These climatic changes are negatively impacting productivity of staple crops including wheat, maize, and rice at lower altitudes, but may provide opportunities to utilize Climate Change Driven Agricultural Frontiers [CCDAFs] at higher altitudes. Agricultural expansion into CCDAFs paired with behavioural shifts such as replacing traditional crop systems with commercial crops will predominantly affect forests, water resources, and soil health, which are already negatively affected by climate change unless adaptation options are directed to just and sustainable agroecological transitions. By trading regulating, supporting, and cultural services for food and water provisioning services, as are evident in land sparing strategy, the utilization of CCDAFs will have long-term implications for the sustainability of mountain farming systems. Climate change is affecting Himalayan agriculture, food security, and ecosystem services, and scientific literature predominantly focus on one of these topics in isolation, occasionally connecting results to another topic. By classifying literature as predominantly agriculture, food security, or ecosystem service themed, this scoping review identifies sources with multiple dominant themes and explores how the relationships between these topics are represented in literature to provide research based evidence to promote the future expansion of agriculture that is low-carbon, just and sustainable. Gaps in the literature reveal that research is needed on the extent of CCDAFs in the Himalayas and the potential trade-offs on utilizing the frontier areas.

SUPPLEMENTARY INFORMATION

The online version contains supplementary material available at 10.1007/s43621-022-00103-9.

Modelling the distribution of Oxytenanthera abyssinica (A. Richard) under changing climate: implications for future dryland ecosystem restoration

Bamboo is the world's most widely exploited plant resource, with significant socio-economic and cultural values. In most parts of Africa, the population is in jeopardy due to the high pressure from human and natural forces. Of these, Oxytenanthera abyssinica (A. Richard) is among the threatened bamboo species. Furthermore, the effect of climate change on the distribution of bamboo has not yet been adequately studied. Therefore, this study aims to model and map the current and future distribution of O. abyssinica in Africa under four representative concentration pathways (RCPs), such as RCP2.6, RCP4.5, RCP6, and RCP8.5. The future projections were done for the years 2050 and 2070 using SDM ensemble approaches. To model the current and future distribution of O. abyssinica in Africa, 737 presence data were collected from various sources. For this study, a total of eight (8) temperature and precipitation-related variables were used as inputs to the Species Distribution Model (SDM). Finally, the model performance was assessed based on the area under the curve (AUC) and true skills statistics (TSS) measures of statistics. Our results showed an upsurge in the distribution of O. abyssinica across the study area for the low and moderate suitability classes for the climatic conditions considered in this study. However, a steady shrinkage in the habitat was found for the higher suitability classes. The model indicated climatic-related factors such as precipitation during the cold and warm quarters (57.8%), followed by mean temperature during the coldest quarter, isothermality (41.9%) and topographic factors such as elevation and slope (31.6%) were identified as the main limiting factors for the growth of O. abyssinica. Precipitation and temperature during the dry period, on the other hand, had the least impact on the growth of O. abyssinica. Except for RCP2.6, the majority of south-western African countries and the Sahel region remain the most climatically stable ecosystems for O. abyssinica growth under the three climatic scenarios RCP45, RCP6 and RCP8.5. Our results revealed a steady increase in the future suitable habitat for O. abyssinica all over the continent under the considered climatic scenarios. Therefore, to support the future restoration of dryland ecosystems, countries should scheme a restoration policy that allows the sustainable utilization of O. abyssinica tree species. The future policy direction for biodiversity conservation and management should encourage the use of O. abyssinica as a major plant species for improving the livelihoods of people living in dryland areas.

Knowledge Mapping on Nepal’s Protected Areas Using CiteSpace and VOSviewer

Protected areas (PAs) play a vital role in environmental conservation, particularly in Asian countries. Numerous studies were conducted on PAs in Nepal. We analyzed 864 papers from the Web of Science database using two visualization tools: VOSviewer and CiteSpace. This study identified the most influential journals, institutions, countries, and regions. In addition, we investigated the changing trend of research hotspots on PAs in Nepal. Keyword mapping was conducted for each type of PA and their differences were compared. We found that the research hotspots are changing with the shifting of conservation policies in Nepal. We suggest conducting more predictive studies on the future development of PAs. Currently, PA research is mainly conducted in traditional disciplines, but with the impact of climate change and the consequent increase in its negative impacts, academic contributions from other disciplines are expected to increase much more. We found that there was a shift in research power in countries and regions. We also detected an imbalanced distribution in which “protected areas” and “national parks” have been studied the most. Only 12 publications were about the hunting reserve, despite its importance to snow leopard conservation and economic significance to the buffer zone communities.

Fishing cat Prionailurus viverrinus distribution and habitat suitability in Nepal

The fishing cat Prionailurus viverrinus is a wetland specialist species endemic to South and Southeast Asia. Nepal represents the northern limit of its biogeographic range, but comprehensive information on fishing cat distribution in Nepal is lacking. To assess their distribution, we compiled fishing cat occurrence records (n = 154) from Nepal, available in published literature and unpublished data (2009-2020). Bioclimatic and environmental variables associated with their occurrence were used to predict the fishing cat habitat suitability using MaxEnt modeling. Fishing cat habitat suitability was associated with elevation (152-302 m), precipitation of the warmest quarter, i.e., April-June (668-1014 mm), precipitation of the driest month (4-7 mm), and land cover (forest/grassland and wetland). The model predicted an area of 4.4% (6679 km²) of Nepal as potential habitat for the fishing cat. About two-thirds of the predicted potentially suitable habitat lies outside protected areas; however, a large part of the highly suitable habitat (67%) falls within protected areas. The predicted habitat suitability map serves as a reference for future investigation into fishing cat distribution as well as formulating and implementing effective conservation programs in Nepal. Fishing cat conservation initiatives should include habitats inside and outside the protected areas to ensure long-term survival. We recommend conservation of wetland sites, surveys of fishing cats in the identified potential habitats, and studying their genetic connectivity and population status.

Contribution of Community-Managed Sal-Based Forest in Climate Change Adaptation and Mitigation: A Case from Nepal

Forests are viable tools in combating the impacts of climate change, as they are capable of sequestering atmospheric carbon and storing it in different pools. This study aimed to examine the carbon sequestration potential of community-managed Shorea robusta (Sal) forest and assess the practices that have the potential to reduce adverse climate change impacts, thereby improving the livelihoods of forest-based communities. For this, we obtained forest inventory-derived carbon data from 11 sample plots of Shorea robusta (Sal) forest, analyzed them using allometric equations, and estimated the carbon storage and climate change mitigation potential of these forests, while focus group discussions and desk review of secondary information were employed to investigate the adaptation potential. The results show that the estimated biomass density of the selected forest is 352.46 ± 63.79 t/ha, whereas the carbon stock density is 165.66 ± 29.98 t/ha and the CO2 equivalent is 598.07 ± 110.48 t/ha. The study further revealed that community forest management, as a successful model of participatory forest management and community forest user group (CFUG) as a resourceful local institution, has been playing an important role in the diversification of livelihoods and income opportunities, social cohesion and thus climate change adaptation through collective actions. The adaptation and mitigation of climate change impacts have been prioritized in the operational plans of the CFUGs. Through the promotion and prioritization of alternative energy, agroforestry and enhanced livelihood options, the CFUGs are committed to the sustainable management of forest resources and to enhancing the livelihoods of local communities. This study indicates the relevance of community forests as a priority institution for the implementation of Local Adaptation Plans for Action (LAPA) and support National Adaptation Program of Action (NAPA) to combat climatic impacts, providing important information for planners and policy makers in Nepal and elsewhere.

Assessing Protected Area Management Effectiveness: the Need for a Wetland-Specific Evaluation Tool

The Ramsar Convention on Wetlands of International Importance Especially as Waterfowl Habitat was developed in 1971, and has established the world's largest network of protected areas. However, monitoring and reporting have been inadequate to fully achieve the goals of the Convention. We argue that current reporting mechanisms, including the Management Effectiveness Tracking Tool (METT), Rapid Assessment and Prioritization of Protected Area Management (RAPPAM), and the R-METT reporting framework adopted at the 12th Conference of the Parties, are not well adapted to wetland systems and the objectives of the Ramsar Convention. This paper outlines one possible structure for a new reporting mechanism, explicitly focused on the Convention's objectives of maintaining ecological character and promoting wise use within the context of sustainable development. Through these lenses, we developed a 15-question framework that would have site managers compile the most pertinent information relating to these two points quickly, including providing operational definitions, identifying allowable uses, quantifying economic benefits, reporting fundamental monitoring data, and assessing stakeholder engagement opportunities. We argue that, if we are to provide an informed outlook for the next half-century of wetland conservation under the Ramsar Convention, we must begin by refining its information-gathering protocols for its system of wetlands of international importance.

Climate change adaptation for managing non-timber forest products in the Nepalese Himalaya

Non-timber forest products (NTFPs) contribute to the well-being of mountain communities in many ways but their availability is being impacted by climate change. Policy and programs to enhance adaptation can alleviate these impacts, but to be effective they require an understanding of mountain community perceptions of climate change impacts on NTFPs and the perceived barriers to climate change adaptation. Here, we explored mountain communities' adaptation responses to the perceived impacts of climate change on NTFPs and people's barriers to adaptation using a structured questionnaire delivered as a field-based survey of 278 forest-dependent households from the Upper Madi Watershed of Nepal. We present a quantitative graphical exploration of the results to provide a simple overview of climate change impacts of NTFPs and local adaptation. The most common adaptation practices adopted by the mountain communities in the study area include the self-regulation of over-collection of NTFPs, alternative income generating activities, improved stoves, agroforestry, and sourcing alternative tools and materials. However, adaptation options to deal with increased invasive plant species and pest insect outbreaks appear to be challenging despite having the highest perceived impact on NTFPs. Adaptation practices are constrained by several factors such as the lack of predictability of extreme events and climate-related hazards, lack of technical knowledge, fatalistic beliefs and perceived lack of agency, and limited government support. Our results can inform policies and programs required for addressing the impacts of climate change on mountain communities in Nepal and other developing nations.

Community eco-tourism in rural Peru: Resilience and adaptive capacities to the Covid-19 pandemic and climate change

The recent outbreak of COVID-19 has been devastating for international tourism, adversely affecting destinations, organizations, and local communities. In particular, the crisis highlights the need for local communities reliant on rural tourism to enhance their resilience to the risks simultaneously generated by the pandemic and accelerating impacts of climate change. This is important as the effects of these hazards are intertwined and cannot be treated in isolation. We explore community responses and resilience through case study Quebrada Verde, Peru, a small rural community in the Andes Mountains. Specifically, we report on a qualitative examination involving in-depth semi-structured interviews and focus groups with key informants from the community, supplemented by relevant documentary analysis.

Drawing on community resilience and social networks perspectives, we find that the community's preparedness to both threats is unbalanced. On one hand, the community eco-tourism system has developed sufficient tools to adapt to the temporary effects of COVID-19 derived from the community's self-organization skills and topophilia. Specifically, the community possesses a cohesive social structure, it has a solid cultural identity rooted in its customs and traditions, and maintains a social humour that enables it to see the positive aspects of adversity. On the other hand, the analysis of the measures towards strengthening the resilience to climate change delivers mixed results. In particular, the relationship that the community has built with other local organizations to successfully prevent and react to climate change is weak. Therefore, stronger efforts towards bridging this gap must be implemented in order to sustain the wider social network of such organizations, of which the community is a part. This would enable further development and implementation of appropriate risk management strategies to counteract climate change, enhancing the community's resilience of its eco-tourism system to this emergent threat. Importantly, this finding might be relevant to other local communities seeking to improve their resilience to COVID-19 and climate change.