Siberian environmental change: Synthesis of recent studies and opportunities for networking

Global change research needs international collaboration

Tackling the grand challenges of global climate change for the sustainability of ecological and societal systems requires data and expertise from Russia, the world's largest country that has the longest Arctic shoreline and the largest forest biome, peatland and permafrost zones. Academic relations and scientific collaborations with Russian scholars and institutions must continue despite the ensuing geopolitical crisis since 2022.

The need to understand the stability of arctic vegetation during rapid climate change: An assessment of imbalance in the literature

In early studies, northern vegetation response to global warming recognised both increases in biomass/cover and shrinking of species' distributional ranges. Subsequent field measurements focussed on vegetation cover and biomass increases ("greening"), and more recently decreases ("browning"). However, satellite observations show that more than 50% of arctic vegetation has not changed significantly despite rapid warming. While absence of change in remote sensing data does not necessarily mean no ecological change on the ground, the significant proportion of the Arctic that appears to be stable in the face of considerable climate change points to a greater need to understand Arctic ecosystem stability. In this paper, we performed an extensive review of the available literature to seek balances or imbalances between research focussing on "greening", "browning" and "stability/no change". We find that greening studies dominate the literature though two relatively small areas of the Arctic are disproportionately represented for this main change process. Critically, there are too few studies anywhere investigating stability. We highlight the need to understand the mechanisms driving Arctic ecosystem stability, and the potential longer-term consequences of remaining stable in a rapidly changing climate.

Impacts of environmental change on biodiversity and vegetation dynamics in Siberia

Biological diversity is the basis for, and an indicator of biosphere integrity. Together with climate change, its loss is one of the two most important planetary boundaries. A halt in biodiversity loss is one of the UN Sustainable Development Goals. Current changes in biodiversity in the vast landmass of Siberia are at an initial stage of inventory, even though the Siberian environment is experiencing rapid climate change, weather extremes and transformation of land use and management. Biodiversity changes affect traditional land use by Indigenous People and multiple ecosystem services with implications for local and national economies. Here we review and analyse a large number of scientific publications, which are little known outside Russia, and we provide insights into Siberian biodiversity issues for the wider international research community. Case studies are presented on biodiversity changes for insect pests, fish, amphibians and reptiles, birds, mammals and steppe vegetation, and we discuss their causes and consequences.

Siberian environmental change: Synthesis of recent studies and opportunities for networking

A recent multidisciplinary compilation of studies on changes in the Siberian environment details how climate is changing faster than most places on Earth with exceptional warming in the north and increased aridity in the south. Impacts of these changes are rapid permafrost thaw and melt of glaciers, increased flooding, extreme weather events leading to sudden changes in biodiversity, increased forest fires, more insect pest outbreaks, and increased emissions of CO2 and methane. These trends interact with sociological changes leading to land-use change, globalisation of diets, impaired health of Arctic Peoples, and challenges for transport. Local mitigation and adaptation measures are likely to be limited by a range of public perceptions of climate change that vary according to personal background. However, Siberia has the possibility through land surface feedbacks to amplify or suppress climate change impacts at potentially global levels. Based on the diverse studies presented in this Ambio Special Issue, we suggest ways forward for more sustainable environmental research and management.

Measuring the sustainability of Russia's Arctic cities

How sustainable are Russia's Arctic cities? Russia's far north metropolises are distinctive from other Arctic cities in terms of their large size, efforts to conquer nature, and big business' impact on the urban landscape. The Russian Arctic cities' Soviet-era design gave them compact and dense population structures. Such features led to many benefits for achieving sustainability, including more efficient energy use, a larger number of hospital beds, more numerous cultural amenities, and greater access to public transportation. However, Arctic cities outside of Russia have made progress in their own pursuit of sustainability through on-going investments, business development, educational resources, and solid waste management. By teasing out these distinctions, this article highlights urban features that make it possible for the cities to adapt to changes in the global environment and economy. In doing so, it provides the first multidisciplinary, comparative analysis of 46 Arctic cities employing historical, remote sensing, and quantitative methods. It demonstrates the strengths and weaknesses of the world's Arctic cities in their quest for sustainability and points to where they can learn from each other in adopting best practices.

Great Vasyugan Mire: How the world's largest peatland helps addressing the world's largest problems

Peatlands cover 3% of the land, occur in 169 countries, and have-by sequestering 600 Gt of carbon-cooled the global climate by 0.6 °C. After a general review about peatlands worldwide, this paper describes the importance of the Great Vasyugan Mire and presents suggestions about its protection and future research. The World's largest peatland, the Great Vasyugan Mire in West-Siberia, forms the border between the Taiga and the Forest-Steppe biomes and harbours rare species and mire types and globally unique self-organizing patterns. Current oil and gas exploitation may arguably be largely phased out by 2050, which will pave the way for a stronger focus on the mire's role in buffering climate change, maintaining ecosystem diversity, and providing other ecosystem services. Relevant new research lines will benefit from the extensive data sets that earlier studies have gathered for other purposes. Its globally unique character as the 'largest life form on land' qualifies the Great Vasyugan Mire in its entirety to be designated as a UNESCO World Heritage Site and a Ramsar Wetland of International Importance.

Soil organic carbon storage in a mountain permafrost area of Central Asia (High Altai, Russia)

The thawing and subsequent decomposition of large stocks of soil organic carbon (SOC) currently stored in the northern circumpolar permafrost region are projected to result in a 'positive' feedback on global warming. The magnitude of this feedback can only be assessed with improved knowledge about the total size and geographic distribution of the permafrost SOC pool. This study investigates SOC storage in an under-sampled mountain permafrost area in the Russian High Altai. SOC stocks from 39 soil pits are upscaled using a GIS-based land cover classification. We found that the top 100 cm of soils in Aktru Valley and the adjacent Kuray Basin only holds on average 2.6 ± 0.6 kg C m-2 (95% confidence interval), of which only c. 1% is stored in permafrost. Global warming will result in an upward shift of alpine life zones, with new plant cover and soil development at higher elevations. As a result, this type of mountain permafrost area might act as a net C sink in the future, representing a 'negative' feedback on global warming.

Thawing permafrost and methane emission in Siberia: Synthesis of observations, reanalysis, and predictive modeling

Permafrost has been warming in the last decade at rates up to 0.39 °C 10 year-1, raising public concerns about the local and global impacts, such as methane emission. We used satellite data on atmospheric methane concentrations to retrieve information about methane emission in permafrost and non-permafrost environments in Siberia with different biogeochemical conditions in river valleys, thermokarst lakes, wetlands, and lowlands. We evaluated the statistical links with air temperature, precipitation, depth of seasonal thawing, and freezing and developed a statistical model. We demonstrated that by the mid-21st century methane emission in Siberian permafrost regions will increase by less than 20 Tg year-1, which is at the lower end of other estimates. Such changes will lead to less than 0.02 °C global temperature rise. These findings do not support the "methane bomb" concept. They demonstrate that the feedback between thawing Siberian wetlands and the global climate has been significantly overestimated.

Changing diets and traditional lifestyle of Siberian Arctic Indigenous Peoples and effects on health and well-being

The diet of Indigenous Peoples of North-Western Siberia is characterized by a significant proportion of traditional foods. Eating local products provides a ready-made set of macro- and microelements necessary for life in the challenging conditions of the Arctic. Currently, high consumption of traditional foods is typical in the season of fishing or reindeer slaughter, while out of season the consumption of easily digestible carbohydrates increases. Due to climate change, seasonal fishing and traditional migration routes are disrupted and, therefore, the consumption of traditional foods is decreasing. During 5 years of expeditions, we performed a cross-sectional screening of 985 Indigenous People from three districts of the Yamal-Nenets Autonomous Okrug. We analyzed the seasonality of acquisition and consumption of local reindeer and fish products and studied the traditional food storage among 90 Indigenous fishermen and hunters, who exploit cryostorage. As diet affects health, we studied the benefits of local food. The duration of the consumption season is decreasing and therefore the amount of consumption of local food is decreasing as well. This has adverse effects on health with increasing hypertension dissemination. The creation of stocks of fish and reindeer meat in villages and their year-round sale to the population is a necessary step for ensuring the food security and health of the inhabitants in the region.

Wildfires in the Siberian taiga

The majority of area burned by wildfire are located in Siberia. Mainly low-intensity surface fires occur in larch forests, whereas in evergreen forests both surface and crown fires are observed. Warming has led to an increase in the frequency and area of wildfires that have reached the Arctic Ocean shore. However, wildfires are the most important factor in taiga dynamics; larch and Scots pine have evolved under conditions of periodic forest fires, thereby gaining a competitive advantage over non-fire adapted species; in the permafrost zone, periodic fires are a prerequisite for the dominance of larch. Wildfires support ecosystem health, biodiversity, and conservation; periodic wildfires decrease the danger of catastrophic wildfires. With an amplified rate of increase in fires, it is necessary to focus fire suppression on areas of high social, natural, and economic value, while allowing a greater number of wildfires to burn in the vast Siberian forest landscapes.

The dynamic land-cover of the Altai Mountains: Perspectives based on past and current environmental and biodiversity changes

We present climate-dependent changes in the high-mountain forest ecotone, old-growth forests, alpine phytocenoses, and deglaciated forelands in the Aktru glacial basin (Altai Republic, Russia). A number of independent sources (variations in upper treeline altitude, dendrochronological data, analysis of lacustrine sediments and botanical and geographical studies linked with the dynamics of glacial-dammed lakes in the Chuya and Kurai intermountain depressions) suggest Holocene temperatures reached about 4 °C higher than today. Unlike the European Alps, glaciers in the continental Altai Mountains disappeared before forming again. Also, the upper altitudinal limit of mountain forests during the Holocene was greater than in the European Alps. The high variability of mountain ecosystems in southern Siberia suggests their potential instability in a currently changing climate. However, periglacial successions associated with the strong continental climate and glacier retreat represent an area of increasing biodiversity and plant cover. The historical and current sensitivity of the continental mountains to climate variations which exceeds that of the European Alps requires greater understanding, environmental protection, and increased social responsibility for the consequences of anthropogenic contributions to climate change: the isolated Altai areas contribute little to climate changes, but are greatly affected by them.

Connecting biodiversity and human dimensions through ecosystem services: The Numto Nature Park in West Siberia

An assessment of the socio-ecological system of the Nature Park "Numto" in West Siberia was carried out based on ecosystem services (ES) mapping, applying a "cascade approach" which was modified according to the specific conditions of low commercial land-use by Indigenous Peoples and adopted with a focus on making it practicable and understandable by decision-makers. The ES values were defined through stakeholder analysis, while the mapping was based on the biophysical traits of the ecosystems and related spatial distribution of ecosystem functions. The mapped ecosystem values differ from the perceived ones. The assessment identified conflicting land uses and groups of stakeholders, including Indigenous Peoples vulnerable to future climate change-induced deficits in access to ES. The ES that are important for climate change mitigation and adaptation are not valued highly by Indigenous Peoples. ES mapping is suggested as an appropriate method for the development of straightforward recommendations for Nature Park management.

South-Siberian mountain mires: Perspectives on a potentially vulnerable remote source of biodiversity

Changes in climate, land-use and pollution are having disproportionate impacts on ecosystems and biodiversity of arctic and mountain ecosystems. While these impacts are well-documented for many areas of the Arctic and alpine regions, some isolated and inaccessible mountain areas are poorly studied. Furthermore, even in well-studied regions, assessments of biodiversity and species responses to environmental change are biased towards vascular plants and cryptogams, particularly bryophytes are far less represented. This paper aims to document the environments of the remote and inaccessible Altai-Sayan mountain mires and particularly their bryofloras where threatened species exist and species new to the regional flora are still being found. As these mountain mires are relatively inaccessible, changes in drivers of change and their ecosystem and biodiversity impacts have not been monitored. However, the remoteness of the mires has so far protected them and their species. In this study, we describe the mires, their bryophyte species and the expected impacts of environmental stressors to bring attention to the urgency of documenting change and conserving these pristine ecosystems.

An Indigenous science of the climate change impacts on landscape topography in Siberia

As with many Indigenous Peoples, the Siberian Evenki nomadic reindeer herders and hunters have observed increasing consequences of climate change on the cryosphere and biodiversity. Since 2017, they have observed previously unthinkable changes in topography. Based exclusively on an Evenki Indigenous Ecological Knowledge system-social anthropology coproduction and community-based continuous observation from 2013, this paper analyses what a Subarctic People observes, knows, does not know, hypothesizes, and models (collectively or individually) about climate change impacts on Indigenous landscape types typical for local river systems. These landscapes are crucial tools for traditional activities. To the nomads, the landscape changes emerge from general anomalies: competition from new plant species; atmosphere-ground-vegetation interactions; icing blisters decrease; rising receding river water interactions; the formation of new soil, ice, and snow types; increasing ground, air, and water temperatures; and the (non)circulation of harsh air throughout the snowpack. We demonstrate the science-like structure and value of Indigenous typologies and hypotheses.