Clinical Trial Designs in Amyotrophic Lateral Sclerosis: Does One Design Fit All?

At-home wearables and machine learning sensitively capture disease progression in amyotrophic lateral sclerosis

Amyotrophic lateral sclerosis causes degeneration of motor neurons, resulting in progressive muscle weakness and impairment in motor function. Promising drug development efforts have accelerated in amyotrophic lateral sclerosis, but are constrained by a lack of objective, sensitive, and accessible outcome measures. Here we investigate the use of wearable sensors, worn on four limbs at home during natural behavior, to quantify motor function and disease progression in 376 individuals with amyotrophic lateral sclerosis. We use an analysis approach that automatically detects and characterizes submovements from passively collected accelerometer data and produces a machine-learned severity score for each limb that is independent of clinical ratings. We show that this approach produces scores that progress faster than the gold standard Amyotrophic Lateral Sclerosis Functional Rating Scale-Revised (-0.86 ± 0.70 SD/year versus -0.73 ± 0.74 SD/year), resulting in smaller clinical trial sample size estimates (N = 76 versus N = 121). This method offers an ecologically valid and scalable measure for potential use in amyotrophic lateral sclerosis trials and clinical care.

A machine-learning based objective measure for ALS disease severity

Amyotrophic Lateral Sclerosis (ALS) disease severity is usually measured using the subjective, questionnaire-based revised ALS Functional Rating Scale (ALSFRS-R). Objective measures of disease severity would be powerful tools for evaluating real-world drug effectiveness, efficacy in clinical trials, and for identifying participants for cohort studies. We developed a machine learning (ML) based objective measure for ALS disease severity based on voice samples and accelerometer measurements from a four-year longitudinal dataset. 584 people living with ALS consented and carried out prescribed speaking and limb-based tasks. 542 participants contributed 5814 voice recordings, and 350 contributed 13,009 accelerometer samples, while simultaneously measuring ALSFRS-R scores. Using these data, we trained ML models to predict bulbar-related and limb-related ALSFRS-R scores. On the test set (n = 109 participants) the voice models achieved a multiclass AUC of 0.86 (95% CI, 0.85–0.88) on speech ALSFRS-R prediction, whereas the accelerometer models achieved a median multiclass AUC of 0.73 on 6 limb-related functions. The correlations across functions observed in self-reported ALSFRS-R scores were preserved in ML-derived scores. We used these models and self-reported ALSFRS-R scores to evaluate the real-world effects of edaravone, a drug approved for use in ALS. In the cohort of 54 test participants who received edaravone as part of their usual care, the ML-derived scores were consistent with the self-reported ALSFRS-R scores. At the individual level, the continuous ML-derived score can capture gradual changes that are absent in the integer ALSFRS-R scores. This demonstrates the value of these tools for assessing disease severity and, potentially, drug effects.

MiNDAUS partnership: a roadmap for the cure and management of motor Neurone disease

An innovative approach to patient management, evidence-based policy development, and clinical drug trials is required to provide personalized care and to improve the likelihood of finding an effective treatment for Motor Neurone Disease (MND). The MiNDAus Partnership builds on and extends existing national collaborations in a targeted approach to improve the standard and coordination of care for people living with MND in Australia, and to enhance the prospects of discovering a cure or treatment. Relationships have been developed between leading clinical and research groups as well as patient-centered organizations, care providers, and philanthropy with a shared vision. MiNDAus has established a corporate structure and meets at least biannually to decide on how best to progress research, drug development, and patient management. The key themes are; (i) empowering patients and their family carers to engage in self-management and ensure personalized service provision, treatment, and policy development, (ii) integration of data collection so as to better inform policy development, (iii) unifying patients and carers with advocacy groups, funding bodies, clinicians and academic institutions so as to inform policy development and research, (iv) coordination of research efforts and development of standardized national infrastructure for conducting innovative clinical MND trials that can be harmonized within Australia and with international trials consortia. Such a collaborative approach is required across stakeholders in order to develop innovative management guidelines, underpinned by necessary and evidence-based policy change recommendations, which, will ensure the best patient care until a cure is discovered.

Improving clinical trial outcomes in amyotrophic lateral sclerosis

Individuals who are diagnosed with amyotrophic lateral sclerosis (ALS) today face the same historically intransigent problem that has existed since the initial description of the disease in the 1860s - a lack of effective therapies. In part, the development of new treatments has been hampered by an imperfect understanding of the biological processes that trigger ALS and promote disease progression. Advances in our understanding of these biological processes, including the causative genetic mutations, and of the influence of environmental factors have deepened our appreciation of disease pathophysiology. The consequent identification of pathogenic targets means that the introduction of effective therapies is becoming a realistic prospect. Progress in precision medicine, including genetically targeted therapies, will undoubtedly change the natural history of ALS. The evolution of clinical trial designs combined with improved methods for patient stratification will facilitate the translation of novel therapies into the clinic. In addition, the refinement of emerging biomarkers of therapeutic benefits is critical to the streamlining of care for individuals. In this Review, we synthesize these developments in ALS and discuss the further developments and refinements needed to accelerate the introduction of effective therapeutic approaches.

Federal Right to Try: Where Is It Going?

Policy-makers, bioethicists, and patient advocates have been engaged in a fierce battle about the merits and potential harms of a federal right-to-try law. This debate about access to investigational medical products has raised profound questions about the limits of patient autonomy, appropriate government regulation, medical paternalism, and political rhetoric. For example, do patients have a right to access investigational therapies, as the right-to-try movement asserts? What is government's proper role in regulating and facilitating access to drugs that are still in development? In this review, we analyze the history of the right-to-try movement, review the arguments put forth by supporters and opponents of the legislation, and consider the movement's consequences. Two possible scenarios may emerge. One is that the right-to-try pathway may fail to meaningfully increase patient access to investigational products. Alternatively, certain companies may attempt to rely on the federal right-to-try legislation to sell investigational products, taking advantage of the provision that allows for direct costs, as there is currently no clear mechanism for enforcement or monitoring of cost calculations.

Addressing heterogeneity in amyotrophic lateral sclerosis CLINICAL TRIALS

Amyotrophic lateral sclerosis (ALS) is a debilitating neurodegenerative disorder with complex biology and significant clinical heterogeneity. Many preclinical and early phase ALS clinical trials have yielded promising results that could not be replicated in larger phase 3 confirmatory trials. One reason for the lack of reproducibility may be ALS biological and clinical heterogeneity. Therefore, in this review, we explore sources of ALS heterogeneity that may reduce statistical power to evaluate efficacy in ALS trials. We also review efforts to manage clinical heterogeneity, including use of validated disease outcome measures, predictive biomarkers of disease progression, and individual clinical risk stratification. We propose that personalized prognostic models with use of predictive biomarkers may identify patients with ALS for whom a specific therapeutic strategy may be expected to be more successful. Finally, the rapid application of emerging clinical and biomarker strategies may reduce heterogeneity, increase trial efficiency, and, in turn, accelerate ALS drug development.

Tracking a Fast-Moving Disease: Longitudinal Markers, Monitoring, and Clinical Trial Endpoints in ALS

Amyotrophic lateral sclerosis (ALS) encompasses a heterogeneous group of phenotypes with different progression rates, varying degree of extra-motor involvement and divergent progression patterns. The natural history of ALS is increasingly evaluated by large, multi-time point longitudinal studies, many of which now incorporate presymptomatic and post-mortem assessments. These studies not only have the potential to characterize patterns of anatomical propagation, molecular mechanisms of disease spread, but also to identify pragmatic monitoring markers. Sensitive markers of progressive neurodegenerative change are indispensable for clinical trials and individualized patient care. Biofluid markers, neuroimaging indices, electrophysiological markers, rating scales, questionnaires, and other disease-specific instruments have divergent sensitivity profiles. The discussion of candidate monitoring markers in ALS has a dual academic and clinical relevance, and is particularly timely given the increasing number of pharmacological trials. The objective of this paper is to provide a comprehensive and critical review of longitudinal studies in ALS, focusing on the sensitivity profile of established and emerging monitoring markers.

Sample enrichment for clinical trials to show delay of onset in huntington disease

BACKGROUND

Disease-modifying clinical trials in persons without symptoms are often limited in methods to assess the impact associated with experimental therapeutics. This study suggests sample enrichment approaches to facilitate preventive trials to delay disease onset in individuals with the dominant gene for Huntington disease.

METHODS

Using published onset prediction indexes, we conducted the receiver operating curve analysis for diagnosis within a 3-year clinical trial time frame. We determined optimal cut points on the indexes for participant recruitment and then conducted sample size and power calculations to detect varying effect sizes for treatment efficacy in reducing 3-year rates of disease onset (or diagnosis).

RESULTS

Area under the curve for 3 onset prediction indexes all demonstrated excellent value in sample enrichment methodology, with the best-performing index being the multivariate risk score (MRS).

CONCLUSIONS

This study showed that conducting an intervention trial in premanifest and prodromal individuals with the gene expansion for Huntington disease is highly feasible using sample enrichment recruitment methods. Ongoing natural history studies are highly likely to indicate additional markers of disease prior to diagnosis. Statistical modeling of identified markers can facilitate participant enrichment to increase the likelihood of detecting a difference between treatment arms in a cost-effective and efficient manner. Such variations may expedite translation of emerging therapies to persons in an earlier phase of the disease.

TRIAL REGISTRATION

PREDICT-HD is registered with www.clinicaltrials.gov, number NCT00051324. © 2019 International Parkinson and Movement Disorder Society.

Rasagiline for amyotrophic lateral sclerosis: A randomized, controlled trial

INTRODUCTION

Rasagiline is a monoamine oxidase B (MAO-B) inhibitor with possible neuroprotective effects in patients with amyotrophic lateral sclerosis (ALS).

METHODS

We performed a randomized, double-blind, placebo-controlled trial of 80 ALS participants with enrichment of the placebo group with historical controls (n = 177) at 10 centers in the United States. Participants were randomized in a 3:1 ratio to 2 mg/day rasagiline or placebo. The primary outcome was average slope of decline on the ALS Functional Rating Scale-Revised (ALSFRS-R). Secondary measures included slow vital capacity, survival, mitochondrial and molecular biomarkers, and adverse-event reporting.

RESULTS

There was no difference in the average 12-month ALSFRS-R slope between rasagiline and the mixed placebo and historical control cohorts. Rasagiline did not show signs of drug-target engagement in urine and blood biomarkers. Rasagiline was well tolerated with no serious adverse events.

DISCUSSION

Rasagiline did not alter disease progression compared with controls over 12 months of treatment. Muscle Nerve 59:201-207, 2019.

Additional evidence for a therapeutic effect of dextromethorphan/quinidine on bulbar motor function in patients with amyotrophic lateral sclerosis: A quantitative speech analysis

Aims

A recent double‐blind placebo‐controlled crossover 70‐day trial demonstrated that a fixed combination of dextromethorphan and quinidine (DM/Q) improves speech and swallowing function in most patients with amyotrophic lateral sclerosis. In this study, a subset of participants, many of whom did not substantially improve while on DM/Q, were re‐evaluated using computer‐based speech analyses and expert clinician ratings of the overall severity of speech impairment.

Methods

Speech samples were recorded from the subset of 10 patients at four visits made at approximately 30‐day intervals. The recordings were analysed by automated computer‐based analysis of speech pausing patterns. Severity of speech impairment was rated by three experienced speech‐language pathologists using direct magnitude estimation. Scores on patient‐reported and clinician‐administered scales of bulbar motor involvement were obtained at each visit.

Results

The effects of DM/Q were detected on several of the objective speech measures, including total pause duration (s) (Cohen's d = 0.73, 95% confidence interval (CI) –1.70, 0.24), pause time (%) (d = 0.77, 95% CI –1.75, 0.21), and mean speech event duration (s) (d = 0.52, 95% CI –0.44, 1.47), but not on clinician ratings of speech or the speech components of the self‐report or clinician‐administered scales.

Conclusions

These findings suggest that even patients with modest improvement while on DM/Q may experience quantifiable improvements in speech when assessed using sensitive and objective measures. This study provides additional evidence of the positive impact of DM/Q on one or more of the neural systems that control bulbar motor function and production of speech.

Animal models of neurodegenerative diseases

Animal models of adult-onset neurodegenerative diseases have enhanced the understanding of the molecular pathogenesis of Alzheimer's disease, Parkinson's disease, frontotemporal dementia, and amyotrophic lateral sclerosis. Nevertheless, our understanding of these disorders and the development of mechanistically designed therapeutics can still benefit from more rigorous use of the models and from generation of animals that more faithfully recapitulate human disease. Here we review the current state of rodent models for Alzheimer's disease, Parkinson's disease, frontotemporal dementia, and amyotrophic lateral sclerosis. We discuss the limitations and utility of current models, issues regarding translatability, and future directions for developing animal models of these human disorders.

Edaravone in Amyotrophic Lateral Sclerosis’Lessons from the Clinical Development Program and the Importance of a Strategic Clinical Trial Design

Edaravone significantly slows progression of amyotrophic lateral sclerosis (ALS), and is the first therapy to receive approval by the Food and Drug Administration (FDA) for the disease in 22 years. Approval of edaravone has marked a new chapter in pharmaceutical development since the key trial included a novel strategic clinical design involving cohort enrichment. In addition, approval was based on clinical trials that had a relatively small patient number and were performed outside of the US. Edaravone was developed through a series of clinical trials in Japan where it was determined that a well-defined subgroup of patients was required to reveal a treatment effect within the study period. Amyotrophic lateral sclerosis is associated with wide-ranging disease heterogeneity (both within the spectrum of ALS phenotypes as well as in the rate of progression). The patient cohort enrichment strategy aimed to address this heterogeneity and should now be considered as a viable, and perhaps preferred, trial design for future studies. Future research incorporating relevant biomarkers may help to better elucidate edaravone’s mechanism of action, pharmacodynamics, and subsequently ALS phenotypes that may preferentially benefit from treatment. In this review, we discuss the edaravone clinical development program, outline the strategic clinical trial design, and highlight important lessons for future trials.

Shortcomings in the Current Amyotrophic Lateral Sclerosis Trials and Potential Solutions for Improvement

Amyotrophic lateral sclerosis (ALS) is a clinically progressive neurodegenerative syndrome predominantly affecting motor neurons and their associated tracts. Riluzole and edaravone are the only FDA certified drugs for treating ALS. Over the past two decades, almost all clinical trials aiming to develop a successful therapeutic strategy for this disease have failed. Genetic complexity, inadequate animal models, poor clinical trial design, lack of sensitive biomarkers, and diagnostic delays are some of the potential reasons limiting any significant development in ALS clinical trials. In this review, we have outlined the possible reasons for failure of ALS clinical trials, addressed the factors limiting timely diagnosis, and suggested possible solutions for future considerations for each of the shortcomings.

Survival prediction in Amyotrophic lateral sclerosis based on MRI measures and clinical characteristics

Background

Amyotrophic lateral sclerosis (ALS) a highly heterogeneous neurodegenerative condition. Accurate diagnostic, monitoring and prognostic biomarkers are urgently needed both for individualised patient care and clinical trials. A multimodal magnetic resonance imaging study is presented, where MRI measures of ALS-associated brain regions are utilised to predict 18-month survival.

Methods

A total of 60 ALS patients and 69 healthy controls were included in this study. 20% of the patient sample was utilised as an independent validation sample. Surface-based morphometry and diffusion tensor white matter parameters were used to identify anatomical patterns of neurodegeneration in 80% of the patient sample compared to healthy controls. Binary logistic ridge regressions were carried out to predict 18-month survival based on clinical measures alone, MRI features, and a combination of clinical and MRI data. Clinical indices included age at symptoms onset, site of disease onset, diagnostic delay from first symptom to diagnosis, and physical disability (ALSFRS-r). MRI features included the average cortical thickness of the precentral and paracentral gyri, the average fractional anisotropy, radial-, medial-, and axial diffusivity of the superior and inferior corona radiata, internal capsule, cerebral peduncles and the genu, body and splenium of the corpus callosum.

Results

Clinical data alone had a survival prediction accuracy of 66.67%, with 62.50% sensitivity and 70.84% specificity. MRI data alone resulted in a prediction accuracy of 77.08%, with 79.16% sensitivity and 75% specificity. The combination of clinical and MRI measures led to a survival prediction accuracy of 79.17%, with 75% sensitivity and 83.34% specificity.

Conclusion

Quantitative MRI measures of ALS-specific brain regions enhance survival prediction in ALS and should be incorporated in future clinical trial designs.

Electronic supplementary material

The online version of this article (doi:10.1186/s12883-017-0854-x) contains supplementary material, which is available to authorized users.

Drugs in clinical development for the treatment of amyotrophic lateral sclerosis

INTRODUCTION

Amyotrophic Lateral Sclerosis (ALS) is a fatal motor neuron progressive disorder for which no treatment exists to date. However, there are other investigational drugs and therapies currently under clinical development may offer hope in the near future. Areas covered: We have reviewed all the ALS ongoing clinical trials (until November 2016) and collected in Clinicaltrials.gov or EudraCT. We have described them in a comprehensive way and have grouped them in the following sections: biomarkers, biological therapies, cell therapy, drug repurposing and new drugs. Expert opinion: Despite multiple obstacles that explain the absence of effective drugs for the treatment of ALS, joint efforts among patient's associations, public and private sectors have fueled innovative research in this field, resulting in several compounds that are in the late stages of clinical trials. Drug repositioning is also playing an important role, having achieved the approval of some orphan drug applications, in late phases of clinical development. Endaravone has been recently approved in Japan and is pending in USA.

Fluid-Based Biomarkers for Amyotrophic Lateral Sclerosis

Amyotrophic lateral sclerosis (ALS) is a highly heterogeneous disease with no effective treatment. Drug development has been hampered by the lack of biomarkers that aid in early diagnosis, demonstrate target engagement, monitor disease progression, and can serve as surrogate endpoints to assess the efficacy of treatments. Fluid-based biomarkers may potentially address these issues. An ideal biomarker should exhibit high specificity and sensitivity for distinguishing ALS from control (appropriate disease mimics and other neurologic diseases) populations and monitor disease progression within individual patients. Significant progress has been made using cerebrospinal fluid, serum, and plasma in the search for ALS biomarkers, with urine and saliva biomarkers still in earlier stages of development. A few of these biomarker candidates have demonstrated use in patient stratification, predicting disease course (fast vs slow progression) and severity, or have been used in preclinical and clinical applications. However, while ALS biomarker discovery has seen tremendous advancements in the last decade, validating biomarkers and moving them towards the clinic remains more elusive. In this review, we highlight biomarkers that are moving towards clinical utility and the challenges that remain in order to implement biomarkers at all stages of the ALS drug development process.

Amyotrophic Lateral Sclerosis, 2016: existing therapies and the ongoing search for neuroprotection

INTRODUCTION

Amyotrophic lateral sclerosis (ALS), one in a family of age-related neurodegenerative disorders, is marked by predominantly cryptogenic causes, partially elucidated pathophysiology, and elusive treatments. The challenges of ALS are illustrated by two decades of negative drug trials.

AREAS COVERED

In this article, we lay out the current understanding of disease genesis and physiology in relation to drug development in ALS, stressing important accomplishments and gaps in knowledge. We briefly consider clinical ALS, the ongoing search for biomarkers, and the latest in trial design, highlighting major recent and ongoing clinical trials; and we discuss, in a concluding section on future directions, the prion-protein hypothesis of neurodegeneration and what steps can be taken to end the drought that has characterized drug discovery in ALS.

EXPERT OPINION

Age-related neurodegenerative disorders are fast becoming major public health problems for the world's aging populations. Several agents offer promise in the near-term, but drug development is hampered by an interrelated cycle of obstacles surrounding etiological, physiological, and biomarkers discovery. It is time for the type of government-funded, public-supported offensive on neurodegenerative disease that has been effective in other fields.

Rate of disease progression: a prognostic biomarker in ALS

OBJECTIVE

To assess the utility of rate of disease progression (ΔFS) as a prognostic biomarker in amyotrophic laterals sclerosis (ALS).

METHODS

A total of 203 patients with ALS were prospectively recruited over a 10-year period. At initial visit, the following variables were collected: demographic details, symptom duration, site of onset, phenotype, riluzole use and Amyotrophic Lateral Sclerosis Functional Rating Scale-Revised (ALSFRS-R) scores. The ΔFS score at initial visit was calculated by dividing the ALSFRS-R total score by symptom duration (months). The primary end point was survival. Kaplan-Meier survival curves were used to illustrate the distribution of survival from a specified point, while multiple Cox proportional hazards modelling with backward stepwise variable selection was used to identify the independent predictors of survival at initial visit.

RESULTS

The ΔFS score at initial visit was a significant predictor of survival in ALS (p<0.001), and remained significant when adjusted for age and site of onset (p<0.001). 3 prognostic subgroups emerged, with a ΔFS score of <0.47 associated with a median survival of 2.4 years, which was significantly greater when compared with an initial ΔFS score of between 0.47 and 1.11 (1.6 years, p<0.05) and a score >1.11 (0.7 years, p<0.001). Importantly, multiple Cox proportional hazards modelling identified ΔFS as a highly significant independent predictor of survival in ALS (p<0.001) along with site of disease onset (p<0.01).

CONCLUSIONS

Rate of disease progression appears to be a simple and sensitive clinical prognostic biomarker in ALS that could be potentially utilised in clinical practice and future therapeutic trials.

Toward disease modification in multiple system atrophy: Pitfalls, bottlenecks, and possible remedies

Multiple system atrophy has recently attracted increased attention in basic and clinical research. Understanding of key pathophysiological mechanismshas improved; and, in the past decade, the first clinical trials aiming at diseasemodification were conducted. However, there is still no established interventional therapy available. In this review, the authors summarize recent advances, discuss bottlenecks and possible pitfalls of previous interventional studies, and suggest future research avenues.

A retrospective review of the progress in amyotrophic lateral sclerosis drug discovery over the last decade and a look at the latest strategies

INTRODUCTION

Drug discovery for amyotrophic lateral sclerosis (ALS) has experienced a surge in clinical studies and remarkable preclinical milestones utilizing a variety of mutant superoxide dismutase 1 model systems. Of the drugs that were tested and showed positive preclinical effects, none demonstrated therapeutic benefits to ALS patients in clinical settings.

AREAS COVERED

This review discusses the advances made in drug discovery for ALS and highlights why drug development is proving to be so difficult. It also discusses how a closer look at both preclinical and clinical studies could uncover the reasons why these preclinical successes have yet to result in the availability of an effective drug for clinical use.

EXPERT OPINION

Valuable lessons from the numerous preclinical and clinical studies supply the biggest advantage in the monumental task of finding a cure for ALS. Obviously, a single design type for ALS clinical trials has not yielded success. The authors suggest a two-pronged approach that may prove essential to achieve clinical efficacy in the identification of novel targets and preclinical testing in multiple models to identify biomarkers that can function in diagnostic, predictive and prognostic roles, and changes to clinical trial design and patient recruitment criteria. The advancement of technology and invention of more powerful tools will further enhance the above. This will give rise to more sophisticated clinical trials with consideration of a range of criteria from: optimum dose, route of delivery, specific biomarkers, pharmacokinetics, pharmacodynamics and toxicology to biomarkers, timing for trial and patients' clinical status.